Grrrr…. A few days may equal a few more lives lost while they stall and just delay the inevitable. I get that it’s unpopular and may cost political capital. In my opinion that matters zero – zero – as compared to a simple act of honesty and leadership. This is the moment when leaders are most needed to lead – not to care about the political fallout.
Grrrr….
I’m hearing the coast guard has masks back in place. I can’t find a link but it came from a very reliable source.
Puzzled by Gottlieb’s insistence that the Delta wave will be “over in 2 to 3 weeks.” This is not consistent with the pattern in other countries that have experienced a Delta wave, whether low or high vaccination places, or whether low or high testing places. Topol suggests the wave lasts 10-12 weeks. We’re a few weeks in, so, say, another 8 or 9 weeks. I’d say that’s about right. We could peak within 3 to 5 weeks, but the wave isn’t over once it’s peaked. No-one in Britain says the wave is over, for example, even though it appears to be past peak. Cases are still very high with rising hospitalizations and deaths. https://twitter.com/LizSzabo/status/1420730836719132673
Best evidence for the length of the Delta wave is the forerunner Missouri. Began its Delta wave 5 or 6 weeks ago. It’s now plateauing – around peak levels – and appears to be headed downward, though still very much in the Delta wave. Other states are in the steep ascent phase or beginning the ascent, gradually or not. Can’t imagine this process will then be over nationwide in 2 to 3 weeks. If it is I’ll be the first to tell you I was wrong (because I’ve been wrong many times).
I like Gottlieb and know him personally. But, he’s been wrong twice about summer waves. Last year in May he declared there wouldn’t be a summer wave. This year in June he said the same thing. I don’t get it, especially for someone as in tune with data as he is.
Visiting this part of the blog more frequently as of late. A very good friend of mine who lives near Seattle has a 13 year old daughter with COVID (confirmed Delta). The unit at the hospital said its the worst pediatric case they’ve seen. She was just put on ECMO as a last resort. They were waiting for more data on the 12-15 year old age group for vaccine side effects.
So sorry to hear of this. Thoughts for a positive turn for this teen.
Prayers for this little one.
Thank you for sharing this although it is heartbreaking that there is nothing we can do for her.
However I can and will protect my 11 year old just a bit more tightly. Frightening stuff.
Ace, I am very sorry to hear this. Delta is more virulent than previous strains in younger age groups. It’s tragic when anyone gets critically ill, but I find it even more so with children. My thoughts are with this child.
A couple of thoughts on Gottlieb. I’m thinking his comment is politically based. He doesn’t want masks.
Meanwhile, cases attributed to the delta strain now make up around 20% of newly diagnosed cases in the U.S. according to White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci.
Fauci warned last week that the delta variant is set to become the dominant Covid strain in the country in a matter of weeks, citing the U.K. as precedent. “It just exploded in the U.K. It went from a minor variant to now more than 90% of the isolates in the U.K.,” Fauci said on NBC’s “TODAY” show.
He said the variant has a doubling time of about two weeks. “So you would expect, just the doubling time, you know, in several weeks to a month or so it’s going to be quite dominant, that’s the sobering news,” he added.
Indeed, Vicki.
Gottlieb is a good man. But, I do think he allows his libertarian instincts to get in the way too often. He wants people to have choices, so no mandates. He’s also very much a pharma advocate, if you will. Okay. I accept that. But, he mustn’t let his ideology get in the way of data.
Case in point is the UK. Gottlieb cheered the decline in cases last week (of course, who didn’t), but got carried away, even claiming there was “exponential decay” in cases. No evidence for that, especially given the drop in numbers of tests. And, Gottlieb knows the risks attendant to a lifting of the Covid restrictions last week. So, where are we today? Well, we’ve seen two straight days of significant increases in cases in the UK. Back up to 31k for the day, with another 85 deaths; 167 deaths on Tuesday; hospitalizations >1,000 new admissions per day. Exponential decay? What? I so wish NBC with whom he has a contract would at least question him on previous predictions and his premature declarations of `victory’ or simply positing that we have only 2 or 3 more weeks of the Delta wave.
For all the criticism of Fauci (and he has made mistakes, most of which he’s admitted to), he’s been more accurate, less ideological, and more fact-driven than Gottlieb.
Thank you, Joshua. That all makes sense….sadly. And yes, I agree re Fauci. I think he is just so darned torn. Trump did him a horrific disservice. Biden cannot be compared to trump. He is a very decent man. He seems to let his desire to get this behind us get in the way of seeing some things clearly. I imagine that plays on Fauci.
And here’s what I appreciate from Dr. Topol. See tweet below. He really combs through the data. Not an alarmist. But, he mostly attempts to follow the data wherever that leads him. It’s vital America pay attention to Israeli data (next in line would be UK, which is also light years better than US CDC data). We’d be fools not to. American immune systems aren’t any different from Israeli’s (or Brits). We’re all human. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1420779380654022659
I’m thinking I can say the same about topol as I did Fauci. That is an excellent tweet and his comment to the tweet is also excellent.
Joshua, did you see my comment last night asking who the person cuomo was interviewing is. I thought you might know. He was excellent
I did some reading with regard to vaccines in children. My oldest granddaughter has an appointment for her vaccine….I believe.
I hate that there is a damned if you do and damned if you don’t when it comes to vaccines in kids. We know that FDA and CDC are skirting the truth in some instances…sometimes with foolish statements and sometimes by omission. We know there is a problem with the vaccine in children….especially boys. We know that the adult dose for younger folks may need to be lower than that of adults. We know that a second dose for children may need to be spaced further apart than it is for adults or eliminated altogether. But we do not have an answer for any one of those questions…..let alone all of them.
I have an ultrasound at NWH tomorrow. I found out it is in woman’s imaging and not in the X-ray area which makes me very happy. It is far less congested and right inside the main door. They just sent me a txt message with covid check questions and then sent me the pass to show when I arrive. Made me feel a whole lot more comfortable.
Good to hear.
Wastewater analysis in Boston – applies therefore to Boston and surrounding area – suggests increase in Covid-19 spread is rapidly ascending. Positivity increasing, too. Massachusetts is not Arkansas, which is good news, and this is thanks to a much higher vaccination rate. But, the Delta wave is certainly not escaping us. Hospitalizations are clearly increasing, deaths, too. And yet, at that CVS pharmacy I’ve talked about – the tiny, cramped one close to where I live – still no mask requirement, or any distancing. I’m outraged about this. Pharmacies are integral parts of the healthcare system. Many people who go to pharmacies are patients, and some suffer from immune deficiencies, cancer, etc … CVS must attempt to protect them. It’s the very least CVS can and should do. https://twitter.com/BioTurboNick/status/1420851337911099392
Speaks to a larger problem here in the U.S. We haven’t done well in terms of public health for many decades. We tend to ignore problems of public health, or treat them as things we must `live with.’ To name a few areas where the U.S. has staggeringly poor performance, which has led to declining life expectancy, even prior to Covid.
– Opiate use – illicit and licit (oh, we do talk about it, but boy we as a nation do practically nothing to address it systematically)
– Traffic fatalities (cars, pedestrians, cyclists) – increasing in the U.S.; decreasing in practically all other wealthy industrialized nations
– Suicides – increasing steadily since 2010 (mostly decreasing in other wealthy industrialized nations)
– Maternal and infant mortality – U.S. performs very near the bottom among OECD nations (34th out of 37)
– Obesity and related conditions (eg, diabetes)
– Covid-19
Good thoughts, Joshua
Biden has s said federal employees must have vaccine ot have regular tests
I’m glad something made the difference, but isn’t a shame that cdc had to Wait until it was in the US rather than learning from abroad.
YES! An infectious disease is an infectious disease, to all humans, regardless of where we live on earth. So, if it impacts Israel or Singapore in a certain way, it’s bound to do the same – or very close to the same – here. One would think that the CDC and others would have learned this lesson early on. Instead, they repeat the same mistake over and over and over again.
https://twitter.com/wcvb/status/1420604063876538372?s=21
“In the coming days….”
Grrrr…. A few days may equal a few more lives lost while they stall and just delay the inevitable. I get that it’s unpopular and may cost political capital. In my opinion that matters zero – zero – as compared to a simple act of honesty and leadership. This is the moment when leaders are most needed to lead – not to care about the political fallout.
Grrrr….
I’m hearing the coast guard has masks back in place. I can’t find a link but it came from a very reliable source.
Puzzled by Gottlieb’s insistence that the Delta wave will be “over in 2 to 3 weeks.” This is not consistent with the pattern in other countries that have experienced a Delta wave, whether low or high vaccination places, or whether low or high testing places. Topol suggests the wave lasts 10-12 weeks. We’re a few weeks in, so, say, another 8 or 9 weeks. I’d say that’s about right. We could peak within 3 to 5 weeks, but the wave isn’t over once it’s peaked. No-one in Britain says the wave is over, for example, even though it appears to be past peak. Cases are still very high with rising hospitalizations and deaths. https://twitter.com/LizSzabo/status/1420730836719132673
Best evidence for the length of the Delta wave is the forerunner Missouri. Began its Delta wave 5 or 6 weeks ago. It’s now plateauing – around peak levels – and appears to be headed downward, though still very much in the Delta wave. Other states are in the steep ascent phase or beginning the ascent, gradually or not. Can’t imagine this process will then be over nationwide in 2 to 3 weeks. If it is I’ll be the first to tell you I was wrong (because I’ve been wrong many times).
I like Gottlieb and know him personally. But, he’s been wrong twice about summer waves. Last year in May he declared there wouldn’t be a summer wave. This year in June he said the same thing. I don’t get it, especially for someone as in tune with data as he is.
Visiting this part of the blog more frequently as of late. A very good friend of mine who lives near Seattle has a 13 year old daughter with COVID (confirmed Delta). The unit at the hospital said its the worst pediatric case they’ve seen. She was just put on ECMO as a last resort. They were waiting for more data on the 12-15 year old age group for vaccine side effects.
So sorry to hear of this. Thoughts for a positive turn for this teen.
Prayers for this little one.
Thank you for sharing this although it is heartbreaking that there is nothing we can do for her.
However I can and will protect my 11 year old just a bit more tightly. Frightening stuff.
Ace, I am very sorry to hear this. Delta is more virulent than previous strains in younger age groups. It’s tragic when anyone gets critically ill, but I find it even more so with children. My thoughts are with this child.
A couple of thoughts on Gottlieb. I’m thinking his comment is politically based. He doesn’t want masks.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/public-global-health/565191-gottlieb-us-will-be-through-delta-wave-in-2-or-3-weeks
I trust Fauci enough to know when it arrived here. It is about the time we all started discussing it on here.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/28/how-the-uk-with-the-delta-variant-is-a-blueprint-for-the-us.html
Quote from above link dated June 28
Meanwhile, cases attributed to the delta strain now make up around 20% of newly diagnosed cases in the U.S. according to White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci.
Fauci warned last week that the delta variant is set to become the dominant Covid strain in the country in a matter of weeks, citing the U.K. as precedent. “It just exploded in the U.K. It went from a minor variant to now more than 90% of the isolates in the U.K.,” Fauci said on NBC’s “TODAY” show.
He said the variant has a doubling time of about two weeks. “So you would expect, just the doubling time, you know, in several weeks to a month or so it’s going to be quite dominant, that’s the sobering news,” he added.
Indeed, Vicki.
Gottlieb is a good man. But, I do think he allows his libertarian instincts to get in the way too often. He wants people to have choices, so no mandates. He’s also very much a pharma advocate, if you will. Okay. I accept that. But, he mustn’t let his ideology get in the way of data.
Case in point is the UK. Gottlieb cheered the decline in cases last week (of course, who didn’t), but got carried away, even claiming there was “exponential decay” in cases. No evidence for that, especially given the drop in numbers of tests. And, Gottlieb knows the risks attendant to a lifting of the Covid restrictions last week. So, where are we today? Well, we’ve seen two straight days of significant increases in cases in the UK. Back up to 31k for the day, with another 85 deaths; 167 deaths on Tuesday; hospitalizations >1,000 new admissions per day. Exponential decay? What? I so wish NBC with whom he has a contract would at least question him on previous predictions and his premature declarations of `victory’ or simply positing that we have only 2 or 3 more weeks of the Delta wave.
For all the criticism of Fauci (and he has made mistakes, most of which he’s admitted to), he’s been more accurate, less ideological, and more fact-driven than Gottlieb.
Thank you, Joshua. That all makes sense….sadly. And yes, I agree re Fauci. I think he is just so darned torn. Trump did him a horrific disservice. Biden cannot be compared to trump. He is a very decent man. He seems to let his desire to get this behind us get in the way of seeing some things clearly. I imagine that plays on Fauci.
And here’s what I appreciate from Dr. Topol. See tweet below. He really combs through the data. Not an alarmist. But, he mostly attempts to follow the data wherever that leads him. It’s vital America pay attention to Israeli data (next in line would be UK, which is also light years better than US CDC data). We’d be fools not to. American immune systems aren’t any different from Israeli’s (or Brits). We’re all human. https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1420779380654022659
I’m thinking I can say the same about topol as I did Fauci. That is an excellent tweet and his comment to the tweet is also excellent.
Joshua, did you see my comment last night asking who the person cuomo was interviewing is. I thought you might know. He was excellent
I did some reading with regard to vaccines in children. My oldest granddaughter has an appointment for her vaccine….I believe.
I hate that there is a damned if you do and damned if you don’t when it comes to vaccines in kids. We know that FDA and CDC are skirting the truth in some instances…sometimes with foolish statements and sometimes by omission. We know there is a problem with the vaccine in children….especially boys. We know that the adult dose for younger folks may need to be lower than that of adults. We know that a second dose for children may need to be spaced further apart than it is for adults or eliminated altogether. But we do not have an answer for any one of those questions…..let alone all of them.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/opinion/marty-makary/93029
Vicki, yes, I did see your comment. I recognized the face, but don’t know the person.
Thanks, Joshua. Whoever he is, His comments were excellent.
Agreed.
Nikki Fried on Florida non-response. I like her hurricane analogy. https://twitter.com/NikkiFried/status/1420447390134382592
Wow. What an amazing person
I have an ultrasound at NWH tomorrow. I found out it is in woman’s imaging and not in the X-ray area which makes me very happy. It is far less congested and right inside the main door. They just sent me a txt message with covid check questions and then sent me the pass to show when I arrive. Made me feel a whole lot more comfortable.
Good to hear.
Wastewater analysis in Boston – applies therefore to Boston and surrounding area – suggests increase in Covid-19 spread is rapidly ascending. Positivity increasing, too. Massachusetts is not Arkansas, which is good news, and this is thanks to a much higher vaccination rate. But, the Delta wave is certainly not escaping us. Hospitalizations are clearly increasing, deaths, too. And yet, at that CVS pharmacy I’ve talked about – the tiny, cramped one close to where I live – still no mask requirement, or any distancing. I’m outraged about this. Pharmacies are integral parts of the healthcare system. Many people who go to pharmacies are patients, and some suffer from immune deficiencies, cancer, etc … CVS must attempt to protect them. It’s the very least CVS can and should do. https://twitter.com/BioTurboNick/status/1420851337911099392
Speaks to a larger problem here in the U.S. We haven’t done well in terms of public health for many decades. We tend to ignore problems of public health, or treat them as things we must `live with.’ To name a few areas where the U.S. has staggeringly poor performance, which has led to declining life expectancy, even prior to Covid.
– Opiate use – illicit and licit (oh, we do talk about it, but boy we as a nation do practically nothing to address it systematically)
– Traffic fatalities (cars, pedestrians, cyclists) – increasing in the U.S.; decreasing in practically all other wealthy industrialized nations
– Suicides – increasing steadily since 2010 (mostly decreasing in other wealthy industrialized nations)
– Maternal and infant mortality – U.S. performs very near the bottom among OECD nations (34th out of 37)
– Obesity and related conditions (eg, diabetes)
– Covid-19
Good thoughts, Joshua
Biden has s said federal employees must have vaccine ot have regular tests
Provincetown outbreak among >800 mostly (>75%) fully vaccinated individuals (7 of whom are now hospitalized) appears to be driving force behind change in CDC guidance: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/cdc-mask-decision-stunning-findings-cape-cod-beach/story?id=79148102
I’m glad something made the difference, but isn’t a shame that cdc had to Wait until it was in the US rather than learning from abroad.
YES! An infectious disease is an infectious disease, to all humans, regardless of where we live on earth. So, if it impacts Israel or Singapore in a certain way, it’s bound to do the same – or very close to the same – here. One would think that the CDC and others would have learned this lesson early on. Instead, they repeat the same mistake over and over and over again.
https://twitter.com/alexismadrigal/status/1420909097809899521
I blame those that did not get vaccinated for these newest variants. Way to mess it up for the rest of us.
Maybe in part. I also blame the experts for not being forthcoming.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/cdc-breakthrough-infections/11fc6a11-20d7-466e-a654-c6bc8426f688/?utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter
Israel now recommending a third vaccine for over 60. Do you think THIS Time we might catch on a bit faster
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/29/world/middleeast/israel-third-shot-covid-vaccine.html
Seriously. How long have we known this on this blog alone
https://twitter.com/wcvb/status/1420940039291294979?s=21
And from Eric Topol
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1420934644480954371?s=21
Biden is proposing states to offer $100 to get vaccinated. Oh brother.
Where is baker. Wasn’t he planning to make a mask announcement today?
Found him. Good grief. I give up
https://www.nbcboston.com/news/local/gov-baker-to-speak-as-covid-cases-continue-to-rise-in-mass/2445691/
pretty good cell down by Fall River and nearing the entrance to Buzzards Bay. Hopefully these 2 cells pass the Cape in the next hour without rotating.
C-19 for 7-30 is ready.