DAYS 1-5 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

Today we wrap May up with a much less stormy day than we had yesterday, however we remain under upper level low pressure on the eastern side of an omega block configuration, and that leaves us vulnerable to additional unsettled weather. The next disturbance drops into this trough via eastern Canada later today and lingers into Monday, bringing us a couple additional rounds of showers, the first later this afternoon into this evening, and the second early Monday. We can still see pop-up showers from diurnal heating Monday and Tuesday afternoons, but those should be rather isolated. High pressure brings more sunshine without a shower chance Wednesday. By Thursday I still expect dry weather but we may see more cloudiness again from a combination of a disturbance to our north and west and another offshore to our south.

TODAY: Sun then quite a few clouds. Mid to late afternoon shower threat develops from north to south including a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 62-69. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with showers possible in the evening then partly cloudy overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower possible. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 5-9)

The omega blocking pattern starts to weaken gradually including de-amplifying for a more northwest to southeast flow. Watching a cold front that can bring a shower and thunderstorm chance on June 6 and some lingering cloudiness as the front may be slow to depart on June 7. That’s about the only bump in the road I can see right now in an otherwise fairly benign pattern that lacks a lot of rain as well as any sustained warmth.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 10-14)

Borderline block to zonal .. transition toward more zonal continues as far as I can tell, but quick reversal to temporary blocking again is not completely out of the question. Overall looking at limited rain chances and somewhat variable temperatures not straying too far from seasonal “typicals”.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

The well-advertised stormy Saturday is ongoing as a potent upper low and associated surface low pressure system move through our region. A little different than a more typical west-to-east or southwest-to-northeast storm track we see with many of our storm systems, this one, in response to the upper level flow on the eastern side of a large-scale omega block, has a south southeastward course, but because the surface low is interacting with its upper level partner, its own track includes a cyclonic loop. This somewhat anomalous and complex set-up was responsible for the different direction of delivery, so to speak. The system’s warm front moved through last evening from the northwest preceded by a period of rain in some areas. Last night (and still this morning to the south) we sit in the warm sector before the storm’s cold front whips in from the north and as the system rapidly matures (occludes), its southeastward movement will put us in a powerful back-lash which will have its greatest impact from southern NH through northern MA early on and shift to the south with time as the system progresses. It’s a rather small system in size, but what it lacks in size it makes up for in potency with a small area of heavy rainfall (this stays mostly to the north). Some of you may have been woken up by thunderstorms overnight but those moved out in time for some morning sunshine before a rapid deterioration in conditions. Strongest winds today will occur in higher elevations and along the coast, typical of what we might see in a winter storm. And speaking of winter, the anomalously cold air aloft with this system is causing some mountain snow to our north, and some of our highest elevations of southwestern NH will be close to or just cold enough to see some mixing of wet snowflakes with rain there if it comes down heavily enough – not unheard of in May, but quite rare in general, and even more so given we’re nearly at month’s end and under 48 hours from the start of June. Look for some downed tree limbs and in some cases whole trees as they are now leafed-out and more susceptible to strong wind gusts. This can lead to some power outages. Also, along the coast, splash-over can lead to areas of flooding especially late this morning to early this afternoon as some of the strongest winds coincide with high tide. All of this starts to settle down steadily from north to south later today and tonight as the low pressure system exits the region. We’re in for a “better” day on Sunday, but with the trough in place, and sunshine heating the land, and yet another disturbance dropping in from the north, we can see some shower and thunderstorm development by later in the day or during the evening. Most areas should get through most of the day without a rain threat, however. While the core of this disturbance goes by Sunday night, enough cold air aloft remains that we can see a few additional pop-up showers on Monday, to start the month of June (new month / same pattern). We still have enough chilly air above us to not be able to rule out a pop up shower on Tuesday. It will be Wednesday when I believe we can expect something in the way of full (or at least abundant) sunshine with high pressure in control.

TODAY: Early sun to the south followed by clouds and periods of rain while to the north overcast with drizzle and an area of heavier rainfall for a time favoring late morning to midday, heaviest northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Embedded thunder possible. Very slight chance of mixed rain and wet snow in highest elevations of southwestern NH. Temperatures fall to 38-45 northern MA and southern NH, coldest in higher elevations, and 46-53 elsewhere in the morning then recover to late-day highs 51-58 regionwide. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-55 MPH, strongest in coastal areas and higher elevations.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Sun then quite a few clouds. Mid to late afternoon shower threat develops from north to south including a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 62-69. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower possible. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 4-8)

Omega blocking pattern keeps our region under a trough of low pressure with a few shower chances and temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 9-13)

Omega blocking pattern weakens slightly but remains in place with temperatures near to below normal and a couple unsettled weather chances.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

We now have an omega blocking pattern, classic for springtime, across the US, with our region sitting under the eastern member of dual low pressure troughs on either side of a high pressure ridge. This pattern has some staying power and will re responsible for cooler than average and unsettled weather. A vigorous upper low and associated surface low will drop south southeastward from Canada today into Saturday before departing mid weekend to bring us our first round of unsettled weather with variety. While this system is good for an accumulating snow threat in the mountains to our north, the closest it comes to “wintry” weather in the WHW forecast area is a potential mix of rain and wet snow in the Monadnock Region’s higher elevations Saturday morning. Before that, we get a shot of light rainfall ahead of the low’s arrival late today or this evening, a round of showers and possible thunderstorms tonight, then a back-lash of rain and drizzle as the surface system moves off to our southeast during Saturday – morning to early afternoon to the north and midday into evening further to the south. Some improvement is indicated for Sunday, but the next disturbance will drop out of Canada into the trough for additional shower and possible thunderstorm chances Sunday evening into Monday before we dry out somewhat but still retain the chance of a pop-up shower on Tuesday.

TODAY: Limited sun / lots of clouds. Rain chances increase north to south late-day. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH with gusts 20-25 MPH, shifting to N.

SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy. Rainy periods southern NH an northern MA mostly morning to early afternoon (may mix with wet snow higher elevations of southwestern NH) and southern MA through eastern CT and RI midday to early evening. Temperatures fall to 36-43 northern MA and southern NH, coldest in higher elevations, and 44-51 elsewhere in the morning then recover to late-day highs 51-58 regionwide. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-55 MPH, strongest in coastal areas.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 62-69. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT / MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 50-57. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. A shower possible. Lows 53-60. Highs 65-72. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 3-7)

Omega blocking pattern keeps our region under a trough of low pressure with a few shower chances and temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 8-12)

Omega blocking pattern weakens slightly but remains in place with temperatures near to below normal and a few unsettled weather chances, though the pattern is not looking overly wet either.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

A cold front and secondary trough pushed through our region late yesterday and last night with isolated showers and a switch from a very warm to a more seasonable air mass. As we get into an upper trough on the eastern side of an omega block, we’ll see diurnal clouds pop up today and some of them will produce showers, along with a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Any of these showers or storms can grow enough to produce some small hail. This may also be a good day to look for rainbows if a shower is departing your area later in the day when the sun angle is lower. After a quiet but cool overnight and Friday morning, clouds move back in as a vigorous upper low and associated surface system dive south southeastward out of eastern Canada. This will bring us a period of unsettled weather later Friday and much of Saturday. Though it will not be overcast with rain the entirety of the time, clouds will dominate, and wet weather – a period of rain – is most likely Friday evening, followed by a couple rounds of showers during Saturday. A period of rain and drizzle is possible at some point Saturday on the back side of the surface low as it heads off the coast. This would most likely occur in southeastern NH and eastern MA. While some guidance leans toward this hold off until later Saturday, I currently favor an earlier timeline, but will watch short range guidance trends to try to pin down when the best chance of that would be. This system moves far enough offshore to drastically improve the weather for Sunday, but like today, with upper level low pressure in place, we see at least diurnal cloud development, and I cannot rule out a few pop-up showers for the final afternoon of May. The next disturbance drops into the upper trough position via eastern Canada on Monday to start June off with the chance of additional pop-up showers.

TODAY: Sun and patchy clouds early. Clouds more developed by midday with scattered showers and the chance of a thunderstorm including the possibility of small hail. Highs 65-72. Wind N 5-15 MPH except some coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 49-56. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Limited sun / lots of clouds. Rain chances increase north to south late-day. Highs 62-69. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with periods of rain morning, especially southeastern NH and eastern MA. Variably cloudy with additional showers possible afternoon. Highs 58-65. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of afternoon showers. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 2-6)

Omega blocking pattern puts our region under a trough of low pressure with a few shower chances and temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 7-11)

Omega blocking pattern weakens and flattens to a more zonal (west to east) flow with a couple shower chances and temperatures more seasonable, though somewhat variable.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 27-31)

Another “summer preview” day today with above normal temperatures. We’ll see more cloudiness than yesterday and just the chance of a late-day shower or thunderstorm in a few places as a cold front drops down from the north. That front will put an end to the taste of summer, bringing cooler air back for the balance of the week which will bring us to the end of the month. With an upper trough passing through the region tomorrow, there can be a few diurnally driven instability showers, but most of us will stay dry. A vigorous upper low will move into our region from east central Canada later Friday into the weekend as part of the evolution of an omega blocking pattern. This will bring us a period of unsettled weather later Friday into the weekend, but don’t get the idea it’s going to rain for 2 1/2 days. It won’t be. The upper low and an associated surface system brings wet weather chances later Friday, particularly that night. The track of both the upper and surface features will help determine the details. I’m watching the possibility of some thunderstorms at least in parts of the region later Friday, a possible back lash of showers early Saturday, and some instability pop-up showers both Saturday and Sunday afternoons, but also leaving plenty of rain-free hours as we head through the weekend as well. More refining to come on next update!

TODAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a late-day shower or thunderstorm, favoring areas north of I-90. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. An evening shower possible south of I-90. Lows 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible. Lows 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds. Shower chances increase. Thunderstorms possible by late-day favoring areas south and west of Boston. Highs 61-68. Wind W to variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 50-57. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with morning showers. Partly cloudy afternoon with a shower possible. Highs 62-69. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 1-5)

Omega blocking pattern puts our region under a trough of low pressure with a few shower chances and temperatures below normal. Day to day details TBD.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 6-10)

Indications are for near to below normal temperatures and limited shower chances as the omega block slowly weakens and we start a transition toward a more zonal (west to east) flow pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 26-30)

Like last week, it’s Tuesday and Wednesday that win the warm award for the week – another summer preview as we get closer to the start of the meteorological version of the season. High pressure to our south pumps warmer air into the region today into Wednesday before a cold front cuts that off later Wednesday. The front will have limited moisture to work with so widespread showers and storms are not likely – just isolated to scattered activity late Wednesday, otherwise it’s dry weather for these two days. Thursday’s weather is cooler and there can be a pop up shower with an upper low in the vicinity. A stronger upper low and associated surface disturbance will drop southeastward out of Canada in the eastern trough position of an evolving omega block (high pressure middle of US, low pressure western US). This feature will bring us some wet weather later Friday into early Saturday, based on current timing. Details of this system still have to be worked out and will be done so over the next few blog updates!

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74 South Coast / Cape Cod, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog low elevations. Lows 54-61. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a late-day shower or thunderstorm, favoring areas north of I-90. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An evening shower possible south of I-90. Lows 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible. Lows 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds. Shower chances increase. Highs 61-68. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 50-57. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with morning showers. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 62-69. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

Upper low shifts east far enough for a mostly fair weather finish to May but still close enough that a pop-up shower or t-storm cannot be completely ruled out. General pattern to start June keeps New England under the eastern upper low member of an omega block. Pattern is on the cooler side of average with a couple shower chances.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 5-9)

Indications are for cooler than average but also mostly dry with limited shower chances during this period as the omega block gradually weakens.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 25-29)

On this Memorial Day, as we always do, we remember those who paid the ultimate sacrifice for us. Many cities and towns have outdoor parades and services to do this, including my own, and many of those take place in the morning to midday hours. This year, it coincides with fog, and a band of rainfall that has to move through the region from west to east this morning and midday, so if you are involved in being in one such event or attending it, be as ready as you can for that rainfall. This is taking place as a final trough moves through as low pressure departs offshore. Improving weather follows this afternoon and we’ll see a clearing trend from west to east, and the day turns out quite a bit milder than yesterday was. High pressure builds in with fair, warmer weather Tuesday, and this lasts into Wednesday as the high sinks to our south. But a cold front dropping down from the north may bring a shower or thunderstorm later Wednesday, and most definitely brings back cooler weather for Thursday. An upper low and developing surface low to our east threatens another shower later Thursday and rather unsettled weather by Friday, when it will turn even cooler – quite the contrast from just two days prior. Spring in New England!

TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and an area of rain moving through from west to east into midday. Clearing trend west to east this afternoon. Highs 60-67 Cape Cod, 68-75 elsewhere, occurring late-day. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, eventually NW increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-56. Wind NW to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74 South Coast / Cape Cod, 75-82 elsewhere. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog low elevations. Lows 54-61. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a late-day shower or thunderstorm, favoring areas north of I-90. Highs 70-77 South Coast, 78-85 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An evening shower possible south of I-90. Lows 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible. Lows 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds. Shower chances increase. Highs 61-68. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

An upper low slowly departs to the east. An associated surface low can hold a shower chance in the region early that weekend and also trigger a pop up shower either afternoon, though it looks mostly dry. General pattern to start June puts New England under the eastern upper low member of an omega block. This is a cooler than normal pattern and carries a shower chance at some point as a disturbance goes by.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 4-8)

Indications are for cooler than average but also mostly dry with limited shower chances during this period as the aforementioned omega block continues but gradually weakens.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 24-28)

This may be one of the slowest onsets of a rain event I’ve observed. The eastern edge of the rain in a sharp edged form sat at the southwesterly edge of the WHW forecast area much of yesterday afternoon and evening, finally advancing somewhat to the east during the night, but continues to battle dry air in its attempt to reach the coast even after the day has dawned today. Here in Woburn MA, for example, I’ve had a few brief instances of a few drops of rain, but never enough to start wetting the ground, and as I watch the radar loop, you can see the echoes drying up as they move into the I-95 belt in my region. This battle will finally be won by the rain as we move through the morning and the rest of the day here, and eastern areas join already-wet western areas for a pretty wet and cool Sunday as low pressure south of our region sends its warm front slowly our way. This front will pass by tonight, at least partially, as the system will be occluding (low pressure passing by to our north) as its cold front starts to catch up with the warm front. The cold front will waste no time crossing our region during the first half of the day on Memorial Day, keeping shower chances in the picture until early afternoon when they end west to east. Outdoor parades / ceremonies marking the holiday will have to deal with at least scattered showers. A drying trend expands across the region along partial clearing later in the day, and we may set up for another nice sunset across parts of the region Monday evening. A warmer, drier westerly flow will be here Tuesday into Wednesday with a little more “summer preview” weather, but when we get to Wednesday, we need to watch for a shower or thunderstorm as a cold front drops down from the north. This is part of a pattern shift to a more amplified set up – evolving omega block with low pressure in the western US, high pressure in the central US, and low pressure near or just east of New England. You’ll notice this with the arrival of cooler air Wednesday night or Thursday. After a shower / t-storm threat Wednesday comes the chance of a pop-up instability shower on Thursday.

TODAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Highs 52-59. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Temperatures steady 52-59. Wind NE 5-15 MPH becoming variable to SW in some areas east of I-95.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly cloudy through early afternoon with a good chance of showers. Partial clearing later in the day. Highs 58-65 coast, 65-72 inland. Wind S to SW in some areas east of I-95, mainly N to NW elsewhere expanding across the region.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 44-51. Wind NW to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloud / sun intervals. Highs 66-73 South Coast / Cape Cod, 74-81 elsewhere. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances north to south. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 76-83 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An evening shower possible south of I-90. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

Upper low pressure expected to be over the region for the final few days of May with below normal temperatures and a daily opportunity for spot showers, details TBD. High pressure builds in with fair weather to begin June as the upper low pulls to the east.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 3-7)

Indications are for cooler than average but also drier with limited shower chances during early June. This is due to a trough in place but axis far enough east so we’re drier over wetter, but this also prevents any sustained very warm to hot weather as well.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 23-27)

Memorial Day Weekend features one dry day, one wet day, and one mixed but mostly rain-free day, in that order. High pressure to our northeast in Atlantic Canada holds back the moisture from an approaching low pressure area today, though its cloud canopy will cover the sky for the entirety of the day – although thin enough at times for some dimmed sunshine to make it through for a few hours, especially the further north and east you are in the region. Eventually the clouds will thicken up, but the rain will hold off until it makes a slow southwest-to-northeast advance tonight, particularly overnight. Sunday, the rain shield should be over most of the region by dawn, definitely shortly after if it hasn’t gotten all the way, and it may still be in a little bit of a battle with the dry air, but that dry air is overcome and we do have a pretty wet day in store, with a general 0.25 to 0.75 inch rainfall expected. By evening, the rain pattern will become more patchy although a few moderate to briefly heavy showers (maybe even the rumble of thunder) can occur. This can push a few rain totals closer to around 1 inch. Despite “bad timing”, any rainfall we do get will be beneficial as we need it to help reduce the ongoing abnormally dry / drought conditions in the region. Along with the rainfall, we’ll see temperatures confined to the 50s in most of the region on Sunday underneath a thick overcast with an onshore air flow. As low pressure departs to our east on Monday, Memorial Day, any lingering rain and drizzle exits first thing. We can see one more passing shower as a trough swings through between late morning and early afternoon from west to east, otherwise the general trend will be for some improvement as we move through afternoon, with breaks in the clouds and some partial clearing. As a result, Monday will be notably milder than Sunday. Tuesday will feature a drier and warmer westerly air flow with fair weather. The upper flow starts to become more amplified Wednesday which may start fair and warm then become cooler with a shower and thunderstorm threat, depending on the movement of a front and arrival of a low pressure disturbance.

TODAY: High overcast including some dimmed sun (especially north and east) thickens and lowers to a mid level overcast by late-day. Highs 58-63 coast, 64-69 inland. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain arrives southwest to northeast. Lows 46-53. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. Highs 52-59. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Temperatures steady 52-59. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Patchy drizzle and a brief shower possible early. An afternoon shower also possible. Highs 58-65 coast, 65-72 inland. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 44-51. Wind NW to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloud / sun intervals. Highs 66-73 South Coast / Cape Cod, 74-81 elsewhere. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase during the day. Highs 70-77 but potentially cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 5-15 MPH may shift to N.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

Indications are for upper level low pressure to sit just east of our region May 28-29 with a cooling trend and shower chances, then pull far enough away for a diminished shower threat and milder weather for the May 30-31 weekend before high pressure builds in with fair weather to begin the month of June. There’s some uncertainty on the play-out of this scenario, so check daily updates!

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 2-6)

Indications are for cooler than average but also drier with limited shower chances during early June. This is due to a trough in place but axis far enough east so we’re drier over wetter, but this also prevents any sustained very warm to hot weather as well.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 22-26)

Heading into Memorial Day Weekend, we find ourselves in a somewhat familiar weather set-up here for this time of year. High pressure sits to our north, anchored in southeastern Canada with a drift eastward. A frontal boundary sits to our south and a wave of low pressure will be moving along it, approaching New England. The battle will be on between the dry air associated with the high pressure area and the moisture associated with the approaching / passing low. Today, the high is in control so we are dry with just filtered sunshine through a veil of high cloudiness (slightly thicker to the south but its edge often visible looking to the north). A light northeasterly air flow will keep the north-facing and east-facing coastal areas coolest today. Tonight, the clouds start to thicken, although they may remain thin enough for a little bit of sun to still be visible in northern and eastern portions of the WHW forecast area early Saturday. Otherwise, the slow turn of the battle in favor of the moisture means we’ll end up overcast. The dry air will be successful in holding off the low’s rain shield until at least Saturday evening in areas west and south of Boston, but eventually it gets in there and then spreads northeastward overnight into early Sunday. Some guidance keeps it dry into the first few hours of Sunday in eastern areas. I’m leaning toward the rain’s arrival by dawn throughout the region, however, making Sunday a pretty wet day. Rainfall amounts should be on the lighter side though, probably up to but mostly under a half inch before the steadiest rain tapers to occasional at night and then departs from west to east by dawn on Monday. Memorial Day itself should feature dominant cloud cover, although breaks of sun do become possible as the low pressure area moves away to the east and slightly drier air starts to work into the region in its wake. There can be a bit of drizzle or a leftover shower very early in the day, and we’ll have to watch for one more trough to swing through in the afternoon with the potential for a few more passing showers. Outdoor Memorial Day activities should take place under a mainly cloudy sky but without rain falling in most locations, although the ground likely to still be wet as most of these take place in the morning. Tuesday’s weather will be improved with dry conditions, though an upper trough over the region does promote a fair amount of cloud cover to limit sunshine that day as it looks this far in advance.

TODAY: Increasing high clouds. Highs 61-68, coolest coast. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Thickening clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain arrives southwest to northeast. Lows 45-52. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. Highs 52-59. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain becomes intermittent. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 45-52. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and a brief shower possible early. An afternoon shower also possible. Highs 58-65. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 44-51. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloud / sun intervals. Highs 61-68. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 27-31)

Upper level low pressure and a couple passing surface disturbances bring shower and possible thunderstorm chances May 27 and 28, less of a chance May 29, along with cool conditions, before it departs to the east and is replaced by high pressure with fair and seasonable weather May 30-31 weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 1-5)

Two disturbances bring passing shower chances during the first several days of June, with timing uncertain on them. For the most part it’s a dry and seasonable start to the first month of meteorological summer, based on current medium range indications.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 21-25)

Cooler, drier air has arrived, but today it’s not with one of those bright blue sky days with fair weather clouds. Instead it will take place under a canopy of mid to high level cloud cover as a result of the frontal boundary staying just to our south while winds aloft are parallel to it (west to east) and a weak wave of low pressure moves by to our south this morning. This wave will bring some showers to eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA, favoring the South Coast region, until about midday today before moving away. Still watching where the edge of the cloud canopy will be in regards to the potential for a nice sunset. Either way, enough thinning and clearing of the cloud deck takes place tonight for fairly optimal radiational cooling, leading to a pretty chilly (for late May) overnight and early morning on Friday. High pressure builds in with continued dry conditions and more sun Friday, though that will be more filtered with time through an increase in high cloudiness from the southwest as the day goes on. This cloud deck will start to thicken up Friday night into Saturday, but I remain fairly confident that the high pressure area, by then to our north and east, will have enough ability to keep our region dry much of Saturday’s daylight. Rain from an approaching low pressure wave should start to work in from southwest to northeast as early as the latter portion of the day but more likely holding off until sometime Saturday night, and this will lead to a fairly rainy and drizzly day on Sunday as the low makes its closest pass. I’m not expecting heavy rainfall, but enough to have to change outdoor plans that depend on dry weather. This middle day of the Memorial Day Weekend certainly looks the “worst”, as the holiday it self will start to show some improvement as low pressure departs to the east. How much clearing we see depends on how quickly any remaining low level moisture can be removed by a north to northwest air flow. But even with that, I still cannot rule out a passing shower. A little more refinement to this day’s forecast will come in the next few updates.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Morning showers possible South Coast. Highs 62-69. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW to N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing high clouds. Highs 61-68, coolest coast. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Thickening clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain potential increases south and west of Boston later in the day. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 45-52. Highs 52-59. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lingering drizzle. Areas of fog. Chance of a shower. Lows 45-52. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly cloudy. A shower possible. Highs 58-65. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 26-30)

An upper trough brings a shower chance each day May 26 & 27, but perhaps a better chance May 27 due to an accompanying surface disturbance / frontal system. Fair weather follows. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

Watching for a couple relatively minor disturbances to bring passing shower chances in an otherwise mostly dry pattern with fairly seasonable though slightly variable temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 20-24)

One more “summer preview” day today with very warm to hot air and moderate to high humidity in place until its pushed out by a cold front passing through the region. As this front moves through today, the atmosphere above is not as supportive for thunderstorms as it was yesterday, and the trigger point is further south, so I’m expecting the greatest chance for scattered activity to be from the I-90 belt southward this afternoon and evening, favoring the South Coast region the later it gets. It doesn’t mean we can’t see an isolated shower or storm to the north, but the chances are definitely lower up that way. The front will settle just to our south tonight into Thursday, and as a weak low pressure wave rides along it, a cloud canopy will remain in place, limiting Thursday’s sunshine quite a bit. In fact, some additional showers can move across the South Coast region, particularly during the morning hours. We may set up for a colorful sunset however, depending on the location of the edge of the cloud deck at the time the sun goes down. High pressure builds in with fair and seasonable weather for Friday. Will it hold into the weekend? The answer is: no. The high gives way to a slow return of the frontal boundary from the south, which allows clouds to increase on Saturday as low pressure gets set to track to our south. This process will be slow enough that despite losing the sunshine I do think we get through most of that day dry before rain arrives in the evening or at night from southwest to northeast, and continues during Sunday. Additional details about the full Memorial Day Weekend forecast will appear on tomorrow’s blog update.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Shower and thunderstorm potential from late morning through afternoon, with highest thunderstorm potential I-90 belt southward. Highs 69-76 Cape Cod / Islands, 77-84 southeastern CT and southern RI to MA South Shore, 85-92 elsewhere. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible, especially near any storms.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Morning showers possible South Coast. Highs 62-69. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 43-50. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69, coolest coast. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear followed by increasing high clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Thickening clouds. Rain potential increases south and west of Boston later in the day. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT / SUNDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. Lows 45-52. Highs 52-59. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 25-29)

Expecting low pressure to start pulling away by Memorial Day (May 25) with some partial improvement – less rain, some breaks in the clouds, but on the cool side. Upper level low pressure presents the chance of mainly afternoon showers both May 26 & 27, and a surface low and disturbance may enhance the chance on May 27. Fair weather returns later in the period. Temperatures continue to run on the cooler side through mid period but moderate to seasonable at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

Continued leaning toward a cool, dry pattern to end May and start June with eastern Canadian high pressure the most dominant feature.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 19-23)

The back-door front that cooled eastern areas significantly yesterday has gone back to the northeast and opens the door for an early-season blast of summer heat today. While you’ll notice higher humidity with dew points generally 60+ across the region, a wind shift from southwest to west may drive them back down along the coastal plain this afternoon, but when this happens we often see a temperature spike, so some of the higher readings may also occur in these areas today. The other thing to eye is the potential for scattered to clustered thunderstorms erupting from the combination of daytime heating and an approaching trough. The best shot at this will be west of I-95 and they should be fading fairly quickly as they move eastward into the I-95 region and beyond by the end of the day. Where they are strongest, damaging wind gusts and hail are possible, but such occurrences should be isolated. Tonight is a quiet but very warm night. A cold front sweeps across the region Wednesday, its timing late enough so that it’s very warm (borderline hot) and somewhat humid, but early enough so that the shower and thunderstorm threat comes earlier and is focused more east of I-495 and from the I-90 belt southward. We need to watch closely because even one hour slower on the front would allow the chance of showers and storms to be further west and north initially. Once the front comes through the temp and dew point will reduce and Wednesday night won’t be nearly as “summer-feeling” as tonight will be. The front slows just off the South Coast and a quick-moving wave of low pressure can bring brief showers to the South Coast region early Thursday, otherwise look for a drier, cooler day with some lingering clouds then increasing sunshine. High pressure builds in Friday with fair weather, but departs as we get to the start of the weekend, at which time a wave of low pressure will approach from the southwest. This means increasing clouds for Saturday with eventually a rain chance, first to the west and south, then expanding north and east. Timing will be fine-tuned for the arrival of the wet weather as we get closer to the weekend.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Late-day shower and thunderstorm chances are highest west of I-95 into the I-95 belt. Highs 69-76 Islands / Cape Cod, 77-84 southeastern CT and southern RI to MA South Shore (southern portion), 85-92 elsewhere. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Shower and thunderstorm potential from late morning through afternoon, with highest thunderstorm potential I-95 belt southeastward. Highs 65-72 Cape Cod / Islands, 73-80 southeastern CT and southern RI to MA South Shore, 81-88 elsewhere. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible, especially near any storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing north, clouds linger south. Lows 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouds and a shower chance South Coast early, otherwise increasing sun. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear followed by increasing high clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Thickening clouds. Rain arrives southwest to northeast from midday through afternoon. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 24-28)

The middle day of the Memorial Day Weekend (May 24) looks fairly wet as low pressure passes by to the south, followed by improvement but still a shower chance under upper level low pressure on Memorial Day. Upper low hangs around with a pop-up shower chance May 26 and/or May 27, then dry weather later in the period. Overall trend on temperatures is seasonable to slightly cooler than normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

Leaning cooler then average, drier overall, but not without at least a brief unsettled threat or two.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 18-22)

A back-door cold front went through the region overnight and sets us up for a dry but cooler day today. The region overall will be a good 10 to 20 degrees lower than yesterday, which was quite a bit above normal, meaning that today will really not be that bad outside, just decidedly “less warm” than Sunday. Coolest readings will be along the east-facing and north-facing shores where wind is directly off the water. We’ll see some clouds scooting west to east across the sky, particularly in northern MA and southern NH, as warmer air is already returning aloft while the surface remains as described above. The much-talked-about summer preview arrives Tuesday with high pressure building to our south, driving warm to hot air and somewhat higher humidity into the region. While it won’t be oppressively humid, by definition, the fact that it’s early season moderate humidity will make it feel a bit worse in a relative sense, since we have not had a chance to adapt as we would by summer. An active breeze from the southwest will be a help, however, and this breeze coming off the Atlantic waters to the south will, of course, keep the South Coast / Cape Cod, and even to the southern portion of the MA South Shore less hot than the remainder of the region that has a pure land breeze. One thing to keep an eye out for later Tuesday is the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms in advance of a pre-frontal trough approaching from the northwest. The greatest chance to see these would be in northern MA and southern NH in the late afternoon to early evening hours. Most areas will remain dry, however, as coverage would be fairly limited. Any of those fade away or move out quickly and we’re left with a fair and very mild night, leading to the summery feeling continuing on Wednesday. The difference this day is that it will be cut off by an approaching and passing cold front, bringing more clouds and a better chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region. I still have to refine the expecting timing of this front in the next couple of updates, but for now I am leaning toward it being a quick enough passage that the greatest shower and thunderstorm chance may be from the I-95 belt southeastward. This will lead to fair and cooler weather Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds into the region.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 62-69 coast, 70-77 inland. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of a late-day shower or thunderstorm favoring northern MA and southern NH. Highs 69-76 Islands / Cape Cod, 77-84 southeastern CT and southern RI to MA South Shore (southern portion), 85-92 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorm potential from late morning through afternoon, with highest thunderstorm potential I-95 belt southeastward. Highs 65-72 Cape Cod / Islands, 73-80 southeastern CT and southern RI to MA South Shore, 81-88 elsewhere. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible, especially near any storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 23-27)

Memorial Day Weekend (May 23-25) looks cooler with high pressure to the north. Watching low pressure to the south and for now I continues to lean toward the greatest potential for wet weather to be later Saturday into Sunday with improvement for Memorial Day. Still a high degree of uncertainty on this outlook, so follow updates! An upper low hangs around with cooler weather and a few pop up showers possible into the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

Leaning cooler then average, drier overall, but not without at least a brief unsettled threat or two.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 17-21)

A disturbance brought a round of showers through the region overnight – a nice drink for the flowers even through we still suffer a longer-term dry spell. It’s back to fair weather for the day today, some patchy clouds drifting across the sky but plenty of sun, and a little bit warmer in most areas than yesterday. Tonight, a back-door cold front swings into the region from the northeast, and while it’s not going to bring much in the way of clouds and certainly no rain, it will turn the region a little cooler for Monday, especially in eastern coastal locations which will have a wind off the water. But this front is pushed back the other way by Tuesday as the little bubble of high pressure from Canada that sent it down merges with the high pressure area off the East Coast to our south. This will pump in the warmth of summer for Tuesday and into Wednesday as well. Some areas can see their first 90 degree readings of the season on Tuesday for high temps, but I do not think this will be widespread, and it will most certainly be cooler along the South Coast and across Cape Cod and the Islands those days as a southwest wind comes across cooler ocean water before reaching those areas. We have to watch for shower and thunderstorm chances on Tuesday with the approach of a pre-frontal trough from the west. The most likely area to see anything would be central MA and southern NH later in the day or in the evening. I do think coverage on this will be low as far as the region goes, but I’ll keep an eye on it. A cold front will move across the region during Wednesday, providing a better chance of showers and storms. It’s still a few days away and timing is not nailed down, but I am leaning later in the day for it – northwest to southeast across the region. Behind this front, high pressure builds in with fair and more seasonable weather for Thursday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 68-75 South Coast, 76-83 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 62-69 coast, 70-77 inland. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of a late-day shower or thunderstorm favoring central MA and southern NH. Highs 68-75 Islands / Cape Cod, 76-83 southeastern CT and southern RI to MA South Shore, 84-91 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm chances. Highs 65-72 Cape Cod / Islands, 73-80 southeastern CT and southern RI to MA South Shore, 81-88 elsewhere. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.,

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 22-26)

This period contains the Memorial Day Weekend (May 23-25). Over the last few days I’ve been keeping an eye on the medium range models to see how they handle the potential for low pressure passing near or south of the region at some point during that period of time. Obviously beyond day 6 we still have quite a bit of uncertainty in the outlook, but today I lean toward the greatest wet weather threat taking place mid weekend (May 24) with fair weather both to start (May 22-23) and end (May 25-26) this time period. Temperatures, while somewhat typically variable, should average generally around normal for the period. Day to day variation can be made more clear as we get closer to these days.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 27-31)

The outlook for the last 5 days of May, if based on guidance available, is rather uncertain, which is not unusual for heading out 2 weeks into the future in spring – and yes, late May is still spring, not summer. Guidance ranges from progression to blocking. Climatology says never count blocking out, even then. When I see range across guidance or wild inconsistency within any model that is considered reasonably accurate much of the time, I go with a vague outlook based on what I feel may be the most likely overall regime, and right now that is drier over wetter, cooler over warmer. Best bet: follow my daily updates.