DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)
For all the explanation, in the end the atmosphere was 1 to 2 degrees “milder” and therefore the more prominent frozen (sleet / snow) portion of the event was far less dominant, and rain with pockets of freezing rain were far more dominant, with sleet / snow well to the north finally making its way into about the Route 2 corridor during the pre-dawn hours today. Here in Woburn I have maybe 0.2 inch of a mostly sleet and slightly snow combo, with a little bit left to go, but make no mistake that in the areas coated or have a small accumulation of snow and sleet, there is some slippery travel to deal with this morning, and even worse, a solid glaze of freezing rain in the higher elevations of south central and central MA and some adjacent areas. These conditions will be slow to improve today as we remain overcast and chilly even as the precipitation tapers off, leaving an overcast with areas of fog and drizzle in its wake as a wave of low pressure departs to the east. We stay on the chilly side of the frontal boundary this wave was riding along into Saturday too, and it won’t be until sometime in the afternoon that the boundary will finally lift through as a warm front in response to stronger low pressure heading through the Great Lakes region. Temperatures Saturday, while milder than today, probably fail to reach 50 across most if not all of the area. We can also see some patchy drizzle lingering in the morning, and I cannot even rule out a quick episode of rain with the eventual passage of the warm front. The low moving through the Great Lakes then crosses southeastern Canada Sunday and drags its cold front through our region. That will be a slightly milder day, breaking 50 across the interior while the South Coast / Cape Cod stay in the 40s with a southwest wind off the ocean. We can expect some passing rain showers associated with the cold front, but clouds will also break for sun at times, especially once the front goes by during the afternoon hours. So, if there is a “pick” to the weekend for better weather, it goes to Sunday. Once that cold front clears the region, in comes a push of drier air, and with the source region for the post-frontal air mass not being too cold, I’m expecting Monday to be a little milder to warmer still with fair weather across the region. Tuesday’s forecast becomes a little more tricky. With the next front from the west still some distance away, you’d figure we’re in the clear for a milder / warmer day with fair weather, but it’s not that simple. There will be a high pressure area building in eastern Canada, and these can be under-simulated by model guidance and many times end up a little stronger than shown several days in advance. If this is the case, the ability of a frontal boundary to our north to be forced southward becomes easier, and this may put somewhat of a cap on the warm up that day if the boundary comes through and winds shift to north or northeast. This will be something I’ll be looking closely at the trend for over the coming few days.
Another reminder that the switch from Standard Time to Daylight Saving Time takes place on Sunday (2:00 a.m. EST becomes 3:00 a.m. EDT).
TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Precipitation (mainly sleet / snow north and mix / rain south) tapering off from west to east by midday with patchy drizzle and freezing drizzle remaining thereafter. Minor additional snow and sleet accumulation mainly north of Route 2 into mid morning with some additional icing potential in higher elevations of south central MA early morning. Highs 32-39. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts in the 20-25 MPH range Cape Ann & Cape Cod MA.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle / freezing drizzle. Foggy areas. Areas of black ice. Lows 30-37. Wind calm.
SATURDAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog and patchy drizzle, then breaking clouds with partial sun at times midday on. Highs 42-49, coolest South Coast. Wind calm early, eventually S to SW up to 10 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A rain shower possible overnight. Temperatures rise slightly to 45-52. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with a rain shower possible in the morning, then increasing sun from west to east. Temperatures steady 45-52 South Coast and highs 52-59 elsewhere. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 45-52 South Coast, coolest Cape Cod, 52-59 elsewhere. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind SW to W up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 53-60 except cooler in coastal areas and may drop to the 40s afternoon. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH may shift to N or NE during the day.
DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)
Leaning unsettled early to mid period with the potential for rain/mix/snow and colder conditions before a trend back to fair weather later in the period.
DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)
Additional cold and potentially unsettled weather again early period before a trend to variable temperatures but still a somewhat unsettled pattern.