DAYS 1-5 (MAY 2-6)

Upper level low pressure plagues our weather this weekend, but not to the point of “washing it out”. What happens are 3 things that can result in some rainfall. The first is a disturbance moving through from southwest to northeast today that results in a couple of rounds of showers, a few of which can be briefly on the heavier side. There will be dry hours in between, so if you are doing outside activity, keep an eye on the sky / radar. Tonight, a low pressure area will move rapidly northeastward, passing to our southeast, but close enough for a period of rain from the MA South Coast to South Shore and particularly Cape Cod and the Islands. This exits by Sunday’s dawn, and Sunday is a day that the sun tries to return but then triggers diurnal cloud development which can lead to some pop-up showers under a cold pool aloft. Changes come after that as the upper low pulls out to the east in a less-blocky, more progressive pattern. High pressure sides south of New England and off the Atlantic Coast, providing a southwesterly air flow and warming for Monday and Tuesday. It stays mild to warm Wednesday but the weather will turn unsettled at that time with the approach of a trough and frontal system from the west, so the shower (and possible thunderstorm) chances return at that time.

TODAY: Considerably cloudy, limited sun. Showers are most likely this morning but additional passing showers are possible this afternoon. Highs 55-62, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of rain mainly MA South Coast to South Shore, favoring Cape Cod and Islands. Lows 45-52. Wind variable to NE 5-15 MPH, strongest over Cape Cod.

SUNDAY: Early-morning overcast southeastern MA otherwise some sunshine before clouds redevelop. Pop-up showers possible. Highs 54-61. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 42-49. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65 South Coast, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 48-55. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65 South Coast, 65-72 interior CT / RI / MA South Shore / Cape Ann MA, 72-79 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers possible, chance of thunderstorms, favoring areas west of I-95. Highs 66-73 except cooler South Coast to MA South Shore. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 7-11)

A trough of low pressure and frontal system brings a good chance of showers and possible thunderstorms on May 7 before it moves out and cooler weather with a few pop-up showers later next week. Fair weather and moderating temps late period. Trend is for a less blocked and slightly more progressive pattern overall.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 12-16)

Some blocking returns with odds favoring our region on the cooler side of it, but with somewhat limited wet weather chances.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 1-5)

Happy May Day! As we enter the final month of “meteorological spring” we have an upper trough over our region, but it’s not the type that’s going to give days of unsettled weather, although we could use more rain most certainly. What we have is mostly dry weather for our region through this weekend. Sun heating the ground today will initiate clouds to pop up today with the colder air aloft – typical springtime set-up. These clouds should be for the most part “fair weather clouds” but a few of them can grow enough to produce a shower later in the day or this evening. Saturday’s weather will feature less sun as the coldest air moves through aloft, with a slightly more unstable atmosphere initiating more cloudiness associated with the upper low while at the same time a surface low heading off the Mid Atlantic Coast throws its high to mid level cloud shield our way as well. That system will graze southeastern New England Saturday night with a bit of rain for Cape Cod and possibly RI and the MA South Shore, but I expect it to be staying pretty far offshore and moving fairly quickly so that by Sunday it’s moving away. We will still have a pool of cold air aloft on Sunday so look for additional clouds to pop up with a few showers possible. The upper low starts to make its exit by Monday when it warms up a little, but a disturbance moving in from the west can bring some additional cloudiness and perhaps a few showers later in the day. Looking ahead a bit more, right now Tuesday is looking like a dry and mild day as an area of high pressure slides to our south.

TODAY: Sun / cloud mix. A late-day pop-up shower possible. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible evening. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Some sun / lots of clouds. A pop up shower possible. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain southeastern areas, favoring Cape Cod. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: More clouds than sun. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 56-63. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 40-47. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds return. Afternoon or evening shower potential. Highs 60-67 but likely cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 65-72 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 6-10)

Unsettled weather potential May 7 and 10. Overall pattern on the drier side. Temperatures trend cooler.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 11-15)

Cooler overall, some unsettled weather favors early to mid period. Many details to work out with some type of blocking pattern likely to be in place.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 30 – MAY 4)

Low pressure moving through the region and redeveloping overhead, though remaining weak, means rain tapers to drizzle and clouds hang on today, with cool temperatures. A clearing trend begins tonight but as we move through Friday and Saturday, the first two days of May, upper level low pressure over our region creates an unstable atmosphere, so any sun cooks up clouds and a few of these can produce showers, although the vast majority of the time will be rain-free in any given locations. Later Saturday night and early Sunday a surface low will move quickly southeast of our region, but can be close enough to bring its rain shield into at least southeastern MA and RI for several hours. Still have to nail that detail down but keep in mind that a little extra wet weather may occur for part of the weekend, favoring southeastern areas. That scoots away and by Monday, high pressure shifts south of the region promoting dry weather and a slight warm-up.

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain, tapering off to a few showers and areas of drizzle by early afternoon. Highs 47-54, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Breaking clouds. Patchy fog. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouds and intervals of sun. A pop up shower possible. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible evening. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Some sun / lots of clouds. A pop up shower possible. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Chance of rain overnight RI and southeastern MA. Lows 42-49. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy start with a rain chance southeastern areas, then a clearing trend. Highs 56-63. Wind NE backing to NW 5-15 MPH, may be briefly stronger over Cape Cod.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 40-47. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 60-67 but likely cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 5-9)

Unsettled weather potentials May 5 and May 7 look rather minor in an overall dry and seasonable pattern much of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 10-14)

Cooler overall, some unsettled weather favors early to mid period. Many details to work out with some type of blocking pattern likely to be in place.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 29 – MAY 3)

High pressure has given way to the effect of two low pressure systems – one doing a little retrogression off the coast and another approaching from the west. The squeeze-play is on, and clouds have increased – mainly a deck of stratus off the ocean, but even with a few breaks trying to develop in this deck today we’ll have increasing clouds above that from the west. I do not expect any precipitation today – just clouds. Later tonight, though, we may get one batch of light rain from the offshore system wheeling into eastern areas while another area of rainfall moves in from the south and west as the eastward-moving system starts to merge with the system to its east. A redevelopment of the surface low will take place and that will move by just to our south and east early Thursday. The first half of that day looks wettest, but it stays cloudy and damp thereafter. The disappointment is that while we could use substantial rainfall to help with ongoing long-term dryness / drought, we’re not really going to see it from this upcoming event. After it moves by, an upper trough remains in place in southeastern Canada and the northeastern US. For us that means cool weather and a daily sun / cloud mix Friday through Sunday. A few pop-up showers can occur in a pattern like this. For our region, the chance is greatest on Friday and then decreases through the weekend, so overall it doesn’t look too bad as we open up the month of May.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 53-60, coolest coast. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain, tapering off to a few showers and areas of drizzle by early afternoon. Highs 47-54, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Patchy fog. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouds and intervals of sun. A pop up shower possible. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible evening. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Some sun / lots of clouds. A pop up shower possible. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun / cloud mix. A pop up shower less likely but not impossible. Highs 56-63. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 4-8)

High pressure shifts off the Atlantic Coast to our south and low pressure heads into the Great Lakes. This allows moderating temperatures early next week, but the frontal system of the Great Lakes low pressure area brings the chance of unsettled weather May 5 before we return to fair, cooler weather middle to latter portion of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 9-13)

The large scale pattern can still carry some blocking which may impact the finer details, but even with that, some progression of systems can be expected through our area due to the orientation of blocking. This does mean that temperatures can be up-and-down, leaning toward the cooler side of normal, with a couple unsettled periods (rain chances).

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 28 – MAY 2)

High pressure remains over our region today. It’s center is slightly to the north, and the wind field is weak, and this allows for the development of a more pronounced easterly wind across the region. The start of this process is evident by a dissipating band of stratus clouds that made it into eastern coastal areas to start the day today but this will give way to dry air and dissipate. As the day goes on we’ll see some high and mid level clouds move in from the west with a slowly approaching trough from that direction, being slowed by our ongoing blocking pattern with low pressure to our east and high pressure near Greenland. Surface high pressure does finally make it off to the east Wednesday at the same time the offshore low is trying to send additional low level moisture back or way and the trough from the west gets closer as well. This will result in a convergence of cloud cover with low clouds increasing from the east as high and mid level clouds increase from the west, resulting in the transition to cloudy conditions during Wednesday. Currently, I expect an offshore trough associated with the ocean low to keep its showers off the coast. What we won’t miss is an area of rain that comes in with the western system Wednesday night through midday Thursday, before that system, a redeveloping low, lifts slowly north and east of our region, tapering the rain off to just a few showers and patchy drizzle later Thursday. By the time we reach Friday and Saturday (and also the month of May, yay!) we will have upper level low pressure sitting over our region. This will promote cool weather and a daily chance of pop-up showers, though most of the time will be rain-free.

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 54-59 coast, 60-65 inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 53-60, coolest coast. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain, tapering off to a few showers and areas of drizzle by early afternoon. Highs 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds. Patchy fog. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouds and intervals of sun. A pop up shower possible. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower possible evening. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Some sun / lots of clouds. A pop up shower possible. Highs 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 3-7)

Blocking pattern with upper trough over the Northeast, meaning below normal temperatures and occasionally unsettled weather, but dry most of the time. This pattern may relax briefly to allow warming toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 8-12)

Similar overall pattern returns after a potential brief warmer interlude. Wet weather chances may increase, but that remains uncertain of that this far in advance.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 27 – MAY 1)

You’ll hear the word “blocking” often in forecast discussions during the next couple weeks. That is our predominant pattern, and while the players shift around a little, the regime is generally locked in, most certainly for this 5 day period as we move through the last few days of April and arrive at May late this week. However, as I have said many times, “blocking” does not equate automatically to “stormy”. This set-up features high pressure parked near Greenland and low pressure over Atlantic Canada. This slows incoming systems from the west where there is still progression in the pattern. As we saw this weekend, low pressure systems are often forced southeastward, sometimes to graze our region and sometimes miss it. On occasion you can get one of them to come in here. Will that happen this coming week? Yes. However, before we get there, let’s go over what takes place before that. Despite it being a blocking pattern, the weather system sitting over us today and Tuesday as high pressure, bringing nice weather. During Tuesday, the low pressure area well to our east does a loop westward and its circulation closes in by Tuesday night and Wednesday, turning the broad scale wind flow to onshore and bringing in low clouds, and maybe some drizzle especially to coastal areas. So after we have bright sun today and at least most of Tuesday, we go back to the grey. Meanwhile, we’ll be eyeing a low pressure system approaching from the west, slowing, and occluding, followed by a redevelopment that will track slowly across our region on Thursday. This brings us a shot of beneficial rainfall Wednesday night and especially Thursday. I’m still not 100% sold that this will become a solid rain event for the region, as many times we’ve seen guidance paint them this way a few days away only to have them turn out somewhat disappointing. Regardless, what happens late week is a reconfiguration of the upper pattern so that by Friday the upper low to our east is gone, high pressure from Greenland retrogrades into eastern Canada, and a new upper low from the west parks over the US Northeast, meaning cool weather with pop-up showers to start May.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 55-62 coast, 60-67 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 37-44. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunshine – may give way to clouds in eastern coastal areas before day’s end. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle possible. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain overnight. Lows 42-49. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Highs 46-53. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting back to NE.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clouds break. Rain ends. Patchy fog. Lows 38-45. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 2-6)

Blocking pattern with upper trough over the Northeast, meaning below normal temperatures and occasionally unsettled weather, but dry most of the time.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 7-11)

Similar overall pattern. Wet weather chances may increase, but uncertain of that this far in advance.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 26-30)

Spring blocking dominates the large scale pattern as we finish off the weekend and head down the home stretch of April. A storm system that would have been able to move directly into our region in non-blocking is instead being deflected to our south and any rain near the South Coast will end by later today while clouds dominate much of the region, but can break for some sunshine at times as the day goes on. I’m now going with a drier scenario for Cape Cod Monday where I had previously forecast lingering rain, as it appears that low pressure area will be far enough offshore for dry weather. We’ll find ourselves between offshore low pressure and another trough further to the west early in the week with fair weather into at least early Wednesday. Offshore low pressure tries to move westward temporarily at midweek while the aforementioned trough to the west makes a move eastward with readjustment of blocking. While details are a little fuzzy, it does look like the western system will be the one that finally moves in with some wet weather for our region as soon as late Wednesday, but more likely on Thursday.

TODAY: Early morning rain potential South Coast / Cape Cod, otherwise considerably cloudy but breaks of sun become more frequent as the day goes on, particularly north and west of Boston. Highs 50-57, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds decrease. Lows 35-42. Wind E under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Abundant sun. Highs 51-58, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 37-44. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible. Highs 51-58, coolest coast again. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Shower chance increases. Lows 42-49. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 50-57. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 1-5)

Expecting a blocking pattern to continue with below normal temperatures dominant. Upper level low pressure can trigger occasional shower threats but the general trend is for mainly dry weather again.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 6-10)

Expecting a similar overall pattern, leaning cool and somewhat unsettled but not particularly wet with more just episodic scattered showers.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 25-29)

The large scale weather pattern continues to feature blocking – Greenland high pressure and Atlantic Canada and adjacent waters low pressure. Low pressure from the west runs into this road block and is forced southeastward before joining the circulation during the course of the weekend and Monday. What this means for our region is that the sunniest part of the weekend will be this morning before clouds increase. Clouds will dominate after that but rain should be limited to mostly the South Coast region Sunday, maybe lingering on Cape Cod Monday as clouds hang around across much of the region with some potential partial clearing. By Tuesday, a narrow area of high pressure is expected to bring fair weather, but a reconfiguring of the blocking pattern brings the potential for a return to unsettled weather by the middle of next week.

TODAY: Clouds increase. Highs 51-58. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a little rain South Coast. Lows 37-44. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Some rain South Coast. Highs 50-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Some rain South Coast. Lows 35-42. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Some rain possible Cape Cod. Highs 50-57. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 30 – MAY 4)

General blocking pattern reconfigures in a way that wetter weather is possible for a part of this period, particularly April 30 to May 2. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 5-9)

Overall blocking tendency continues. Cool, somewhat unsettled, but also not particularly wet remains the expectation.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 24-28)

The pattern maintains blocking configuration with high pressure near Greenland and low pressure extending from Atlantic Canada to the waters east of New England. Incoming low pressure from the west this weekend will be deflected mostly to our south and west, but can be close enough to produce a little light rainfall near the South Coast from late Saturday through early Sunday. Otherwise, I expect generally dry weather during this five day period with temperatures running on the cooler side of seasonal averages.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouds increase. Highs 51-58. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a little rain South Coast. Lows 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds decrease. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Some clouds return. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 29 – MAY 3)

General blocking pattern reconfigures in a way that wetter weather is possible for a part of this period, particularly April 30 to May 2. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 4-8)

Overall blocking tendency continues. Cool, somewhat unsettled, but also not particularly wet is the expectation.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 23-27)

A blocking pattern with high pressure near Greenland and low pressure east of New England is the dominant set-up through Monday. A cloud canopy will depart Cape Cod this morning, otherwise around the western periphery of the offshore low will be some patches of clouds moving north south across our region today – with a shower not to be ruled out in eastern areas, though most of the region will be dry. Another low pressure area from the west runs into the block this weekend and is deflected southeastward, with our area only seeing some cloudiness from it later Saturday to very early Sunday, otherwise after today’s minor shower threat in the east, it’s dry weather for the duration of this period. Slightly elevated fire potential exists so use caution with any outdoor open flame, where permitted.

TODAY: Cloudy Cape Cod early, otherwise a sun / cloud mix. Slight chance of a passing shower from the NH Seacoast region through eastern MA. Highs 56-63. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 51-58. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 28 – MAY 2)

Blocking pattern continues but major features shift eastward, which allows moderating temperatures and continued dry weather early to mid period before wet weather chances increase later in the period as another low approaches from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 3-7)

Blocking with upper level low pressure over the region, which is a cool and unsettled pattern if it sets up as anticipated.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 22-26)

An evolving blocking pattern – high pressure in Greenland, low pressure from Atlantic Canada to the waters east of New England – governs our weather through the coming weekend. Today, a disturbance moves into the region, producing lots of clouds and very limited rainfall as it is stretched and deflected southeastward, eventually to join the upper low to our east. That circulation will retrograde westward enough to bring a diurnal shower chance to eastern areas Thursday before ensuring drier Friday through the weekend. The next approaching low pressure area is deflected even further southwest of our region between late Saturday and early Sunday. All we’ll see of it is some varying amounts of cloud cover. Temperatures will run below the seasonal averages for this time of year throughout this forecast period.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain. Highs 46-53. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers – mainly NH Seacoast to eastern MA to RI – which can be mixed with small hail or graupel. Highs 56-63. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 51-58. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 27 – MAY 1)

Blocking pattern continues but major features shift eastward, which allows moderating temperatures and continued dry weather early to mid period before wet weather chances increase later in the period as another low approaches from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 2-6)

Blocking re-establishes with upper level low pressure over the region, which is a cool and unsettled pattern if it sets up as expected.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 21-25)

The large scale pattern will be driven by evolving blocking which starts upstream over the Atlantic now. An upper level low that went by our region over the weekend from west to east bringing us showers and t-storms Sunday followed by a breezy, cool day with a few additional showers of rain and frozen precipitation Monday is mostly offshore now. The western extent of this low pressure area is still causing some cloudiness over Cape Cod and the Islands early today, but those will slide to the southeast with time and that area will clear, leaving us with abundant sunshine today under a small high pressure area. Temperatures will remain below normal. Sun quickly dries things out so fire danger is slightly elevated, though less wind (just light wind with coastal sea breezes) will be a limiting factor. As we move from mid through late week, upper level low pressure will sit offshore, even retrograding westward a bit (Thursday) temporarily. Wednesday, an approaching low pressure area from the west will try to push a warm front through, and while it brings a canopy of cloud cover and some precipitation our way, the front never makes it across the region as the larger scale block / upper low to east forces it southeastward, passing southwest of our region then being pulled into the circulation of the offshore upper level low pressure area. The latter will spin its way a little closer to our region Thursday into Friday. Each of these days will see the development of diurnal cumulus and stratocumulus clouds. Thursday will be more unstable so that those clouds can build into scattered showers, especially over eastern portions of our region. Saturday can be somewhat similar, but additionally we’ll likely see some increased high and mid level cloudiness as the next system that tries to approach from the west starts to be force southeastward, like its predecessor. This does mean continued below normal temperatures through the end of this week, but after the shower threat of Thursday, I expect precipitation-free conditions Friday and Saturday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy Cape Cod / Islands morning, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 45-52, coolest coast. Wind W under 10 MPH early, then variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Overnight light snow / mix / rain developing from west to east with minor snow accumulation possible on unpaved surfaces, especially west of I-95. Lows 32-39. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Lingering light rain potential mainly east of I-95 and south of I-90 through midday. Highs 45-52. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind SE to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers which can be mixed with small hail or graupel. Highs 56-63. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 51-58. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 26-30)

Blocking pattern but a slow eastward shift. Temperatures generally below normal. Dry weather to start. One or two wet weather chances follow in the final days of April.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 1-5)

Blocking remains. Another upper low nearby. Temperatures below normal. Additional unsettled weather in the early days of May.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 20-24)

Today is the continuation of the weekend for many in our area, and a lot of people will be outside either running in or being a spectator of the Boston Marathon, or perhaps at Fenway Park for a daytime Red Sox game in which the first pitch is thrown prior to noon. The good news about the weather: Not a rainy day. The not-as-good news: It’s going to be breezy and quite chilly. However, many runners might count this as good news as the cool weather with a (mostly) tail wind will be beneficial for distance running. But even they are going to feel the chill coming out to the starting line this morning as we start the day with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s to middle 30s across the region. Before a lot of clouds arrive, courtesy upper level low pressure, there will be plenty of sun at first which will help take the initial chill out of the air, but as cumulus and stratocumulus clouds fill in the sky in response to a cold pool of air aloft, the lack of sun combined with a gusty breeze will make high temps in the middle 40s to lower 50s feel more like upper 30s to lower 40s. Additionally, with a disturbance passing by, the aforementioned clouds can produce a few showers of precipitation ranging from rain to sleet to graupel, even a little wet snow. These should not cause any significant issues, however, and most of the time will be just dry. Tonight, we clear out and the cold keeps hold as high pressure builds toward the region. Tuesday’s weather will be bright but still chilly, but this time with less wind, as that high sits over the region. During the middle and end of the week, the large scale weather pattern becoming blocked will feature the development and retrogression of an upper low off the coast to our east. The next weather disturbance moving our way Tuesday night and Wednesday will get close enough to deliver clouds and some light rain/mix/snow later Tuesday night and a few lingering rain showers Wednesday morning, and perhaps another shower round Wednesday evening, but the disturbance itself will be deflected to the southeast and eventually join the offshore party with the upper low as we get into Thursday and Friday. Slightly milder air arrives for Thursday before we cool down again for Friday with generally dry weather expected.

TODAY – PATRIOTS DAY: Abundant sun to start, then lots of clouds. Isolated afternoon showers of rain and/or sleet and/or graupel and/or wet snow. Highs 45-52. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds early including mix or snow shower potential in eastern MA in the evening, followed by clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Late evening or overnight light snow / mix potential especially west of I-95. Lows 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of a rain shower early. Highs 46-53. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a rain shower evening. Lows 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 25-29)

Blocking pattern. Below normal temperatures. Upper level low pressure may deflect the April 25-26 weekend rain chance mostly southwest of the region but will keep an eye on it, so this period looks drier overall.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 30 – MAY 4)

Continued blocking indicated and while I favor below normal temperatures to continue the upper pattern may shift enough to allow more wet weather chances to evolve as we end April and get into early May.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 19-23)

We’re now at the middle day of what is for many a 3-day weekend, finishing up with Patriots Day aka Marathon Monday tomorrow. Before we get there, we have an unsettled Sunday to get through as a trough sends low pressure north of our region and drags a cold front from west to east through the area. This system will produce showery weather today, with most numerous showers moving southwest to northeast while the entire system slides to the east. Areas of fog and drizzle precede the showers in many locations. A temperature drop arrives at their conclusion. In fact it may chill off quickly enough so that some of the showers end mixed with sleet or wet snow in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH before the end of the day. Clearing behind the front progresses eastward far enough for some brightening of the sky, especially the further west you are, by later in the day. Will the sun sneak below a clearing line above the western horizon for a nice sunset? We will see about that, but if it happens, again further west has a better chance. Some clearing does take place tonight as colder air moves in, and this sets up a chilly and breezy Patriots Day, at which time upper level low pressure will be crossing the region. While the day is not set to be a wash-out by any stretch, a disturbance will bring lots of clouds and some scattered showers to the region especially during the afternoon. The air will be chilly enough so that the showers can mix with sleet and/or wet snow, especially in higher elevations inland. Either way, these are not a big deal. The gusty wind, limited sun, and chilly air will have some impact on runners in the marathon, probably even more on spectators standing on the sidelines of the route, and also at Fenway Park for the Red Sox game that kicks off in the late morning. But despite this, these events will go off without major weather-related issues – just one of the many varieties we can see here on this or any day in our part of the world. High pressure will build in with fair weather on Tuesday before the next low pressure disturbance brings clouds and a shower chance to the region for part of Wednesday. After this, at least some partial clearing is expected behind that system with dry weather on Thursday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Foggy areas and patchy drizzle morning. Showers arrive west to east morning-midday, including the chance of thunderstorms, tapering off western to central areas by day’s end while continuing in RI, eastern MA, and NH Seacoast. Showers may mix with sleet and/or wet snow in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH before ending. Highs 50-57 but starting to fall from west to east by late-day. Wind S up to 10 MPH shifts to west 5-15 MPH from west to east.

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 36-43. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts overnight.

MONDAY – PATRIOTS DAY: Sun and passing clouds morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon including the chance of a rain shower that can be mixed with sleet or snow in some locations. Highs 44-51. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Gradual clearing but clouds and snow showers are possible in far eastern MA for a while including some minor accumulation. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 42-49. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 41-48. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 24-28)

Blocking pattern. Below normal temperatures. A rain chance favors early period, otherwise mostly dry.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 29 – MAY 3)

Continued blocking indicated. Below normal temperatures. Best rain chance mid period, otherwise mostly dry.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 18-22)

Today, a northeasterly air flow of maritime air will keep it cool with extensive cloud cover – a stratus deck from the ocean. The leading edge of this deck, moving westward, is just reaching southwestern NH and the western reaches of the WHW forecast area in MA and eastern CT so those areas saw some early sun. Later on, the eastern limit of the cloud deck will approach the NH Seacoast and northeastern MA, with those areas potentially seeing some afternoon cloud breaks and a little sun. Patchy drizzle and light fog can occur under the deck of clouds due to the increased moisture flowing in from the ocean. Sunday’s weather will be governed by the approach of an upper trough of low pressure, pushing a warm front / cold front combo our way as surface low pressure moves into eastern Canada to our north. Showery weather is expected with this system, with the most widespread activity from midday into afternoon. The cold front may be moving quickly enough so that we start to see clearing over western areas near sunset time – at least a brightening sky to the west by the end of the day as showers end. Behind this front comes a shot of chilly air, and as upper level low pressure drifts across our region Monday, expect a gusty breeze, sun giving way to a lot of clouds and a chance of few scattered showers of mainly rain – although mixing with sleet and snow is a potential especially inland and higher elevation locations. Most of the day will just be dry, breezy, and chilly. This of course coincides with Patriots Day activities including the Boston Marathon and the Red Sox home game that starts in the late morning. High pressure builds in Monday night into Tuesday. Many areas see low temps fall to near or below freezing Tuesday morning and a modest recovery during the day under abundant late April sunshine. Wednesday, the next trough and frontal system brings back clouds with the chance of some showers.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and drizzle. Highs 47-54. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partial clearing evening, then clouding back up overnight. Lows 40-47. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely mid morning to late afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W from west to east during the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 36-43. Wind variable to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts overnight.

MONDAY – PATRIOTS DAY: Sun and passing clouds morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon including the chance of a rain shower that can be mixed with sleet or snow in some locations. Highs 44-51. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH evening, diminishing overnight.

TUESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 42-49. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 23-27)

Trend for this period is for a blocking pattern to evolve with a tendency for unsettled and cool weather more dominant.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 28 – MAY 2)

Indications are for below normal temps and a couple wet weather chances during end-of-April to start-of-May time frame.