DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

A cold front moves offshore early this morning taking any showers with it. This will be followed by a breezy, drier day with sunshine returning, though passing fair weather clouds will dot the sky as well. High pressure builds over the region tonight and Tuesday with fair weather and lighter wind. This promotes a cool night tonight, and a nice rebound to milder air Tuesday afternoon. The high moves offshore, bringing in warmer late summer air for midweek – Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front approaches later Thursday, especially evening and nighttime with lots of clouds and the potential for showers, which will then depart on Friday as another area of high pressure moves in behind the front with a return to fair weather.

TODAY: Early clouds with scattered showers mainly I-95 belt eastward, then sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches late night. Lows 45-52, coolest interior valleys, mildest urban centers and coast. Wind N dropping to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Abundant sunshine. Highs 68-75. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Ground fog patches overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 73-80. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun dominant until mid afternoon then more clouds late. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with potential showers early, then clearing. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

Guidance is not consistent in the medium range so it doesn’t aid much in forecast confidence, but current expectations are for weather to start and finish the September 19-20 weekend with an interruption from a passing disturbance somewhere between there, bringing a shower chance. There are a few indications of a more significant trough pushing another shower threat into the region early next week – but uncertain. The Autumnal Equinox occurs at 8:05 p.m. EDT on September 22.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

Trend is for only a brief shower threat somewhere early or mid period with otherwise mostly fair weather and slight cooling trend in the early days of autumn.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

And now to the unsettled portion of the weekend 50/50. There is some good news though: The rain coming in will be beneficial as much of the region does still remain in a longer-term deficit going back through the start of this year. So this will help in that regard. It won’t help in regard to the potential flooding from fairly high rainfall rates later today, particularly over RI and southeastern MA, where we can see embedded thunder and even the remote chance of a brief, weak tornado if any convective cells can get organized enough. The rest of the region sees more of a general moderate to borderline heavy rainfall moving in this morning and moving out by day’s end. This all comes from a wave of low pressure developing and moving northeastward across our region, its center crossing southeastern MA around mid afternoon. As this moves offshore it will take the rain with it and some clearing starts to work in from the west toward the end of the day. But with the sunset now just prior to 7 p.m., areas to the west of Boston stand the greatest chance of seeing any sun before it goes down. Some clearing takes place this evening before another batch of clouds arrives overnight to first thing Monday morning with a cold front crossing the region. This front can produce a few showers. The balance of Monday ends up dry and breezy behind the front with today’s humidity being replace by drier air. High pressure builds in with abundant sunshine for Tuesday – a cool morning and a milder afternoon. High pressure shifts offshore at midweek when we see generally fair but warmer and somewhat more humid weather. For now, it looks like the next frontal system will hold off until at least late Thursday (maybe beyond).

TODAY: Cloudy as rain overspreads the region this morning and continues into afternoon before tapering off from southwest to northeast later in the day, including embedded heavier downpours with thunder potential, especially RI and southeastern MA. Areas of fog forming. Clouds break from west to east late. Humid. Highs 66-73. Wind S shifts to E 5-15 MPH, but variable across Cape Cod where brief strong gusts can occur with any downpours / t-storms.

TONIGHT: Clearing evening, then clouds return overnight with a shower chance. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Early clouds and a shower chance particularly eastern areas, then sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 49-56. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

Current expected timing suggest a cold front moves through with a shower threat early September 18, followed by fair weather to start the weekend (September 19), then another unsettled threat around September 20-21 before fair weather returns at the end of the period, just in time for the Autumnal Equinox which occurs at 8:05 p.m. EDT on September 22.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Early days of autumn have the outlook of one unsettled threat around September 24 and a general cooling trend.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

A 50/50 fair/foul weekend. Today’s the fair day, high pressure atop the region for a cool start, then sliding offshore for a milder afternoon as we see plenty of sun, but an increase in high to mid level clouds later on, ahead of the “50 / foul”, which is in response to a trough of low pressure moving through on Sunday. A surface low will form and move across the region, with plenty of moisture to drawn from, so it now seems a significant rainfall occurs over several hours from Sunday morning to about mid afternoon – progression generally southwest to northeast for both start and end of rainfall. Rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.50 should be widespread, but there will be pockets that exceed 1.50 and rainfall rates that can be high enough to result in some flooding issues, particularly in RI and southeastern MA. Improvement comes late in the day as the low starts to pull away. An additional cold front needs to cross the region in the pre-dawn hours of Monday, and that can bring a passing shower. Monday and Tuesday will be fair, less humid days after a spike of high humidity with Sunday’s system. Monday we’ll have a northwesterly breeze as the drier air advects in behind the front, and Tuesday’s weather will be tranquil under high pressure. Wednesday, the high slides offshore, and we see the return of some late summer warmth and a bit of humidity to go with it.

TODAY: Abundant sun then high clouds arrive late. Highs 70-77. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Fog patches overnight. Rain potential South Coast toward dawn. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with areas of fog until mid afternoon with rain likely, along with embedded heavier downpours – particularly RI & southeastern MA. Rain departs and clouds break for sunshine west to east later on. High humidity. Highs 68-75 (may occur late-day). Wind variable, mostly S to SW, 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. An additional shower possible. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifts to NW.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 49-56. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 50-57. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

Still warm but a shower chance September 17 as a cold front passes through the region. Cooler/drier briefly after that, then some additional unsettled weather may roll through the region with another trough and disturbance from the west, departing in time for a fair final full day of astronomical summer.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

The Autumnal Equinox occurs at 8:05 p.m. EDT September 22. Pattern looks mostly dry in this stretch of days heading into late month, maybe a brief shower threat a couple times with some changeable temperatures trending slightly cooler.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

A little more tweaking in the shorter term forecast as details on the weekend trough / low pressure system become more clear. You may remember a few days ago I mentioned this weekend looking great, and all guidance reflected that idea of high pressure in control the entire time with fair weather. But guidance is not always so good, and sometimes it leads us astray, which it did in this case for me. So now we talk about a bit of a split this weekend. But before that, we do have a nice day today with high pressure in control, building in from the west. A ribbon of high clouds provided a nice sunrise if you were up for it, but sunshine will be abundant today along with dry air and a northwesterly breeze. As high pressure moves overhead tonight, winds die off and radiational cooling takes hold. The temperature spread you saw on my previous forecast will definitely not be adequate enough to cover the range in temperature we will see for later tonight to Saturday morning for low temperatures, where the normal colder spots can drop to around 40 while the urban areas can stay at or above 50. The high will still have enough influence so that our weather is fair on Saturday, to start the weekend, but you’ll notice more high to mid level cloudiness starting to show up later on ahead of our next trough – the one initially underestimated by guidance. This system will move through during Sunday. An initial disturbance going by just to our southeast will toss a batch of moisture our way with rain and embedded heavier showers moving through the region Sunday morning to midday from southwest to northeast. This will be followed by a clearing trend and some sunshine should return to the region during the afternoon in the same progression the rain had. You will notice another spike in humidity during Sunday. A cold front still has to move through and will do so later at night with a shower threat. High pressure builds in during Monday and Tuesday with fair weather and lower humidity again. Previously, I had this progression faster and hinted at much warmer weather Tuesday than we will probably end up with, but it will still be on the mild side.

TODAY: High clouds can filter the early-day sun, then brighter sun with just a few passing fair-weather clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Patchy high clouds but mainly clear. Lows 40-47 valleys, swamps, and bogs, 47-54 elsewhere with mildest in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH dropping to calm.

SATURDAY: Lots of sun, but more high and middle clouds later. Highs 70-77. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Fog patches overnight. Rain potential South Coast toward dawn. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Cloudy start with a period of rain in the morning to midday, steadiest and longest-lasting I-95 belt eastward, including embedded heavier showers, as well as patchy fog. Clouds break for sun afternoon. Humid. Highs 70-77. Wind variable becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. An additional shower possible. Patchy fog. Lows 56-63. Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifts to NW.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in low elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

Warm, fair weather September 16. Shower chance September 17. Dry, cooler later next week.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

Shower chances greatest September 24-25, with fair weather expected leading up to that. Temperatures variable, but not too far from normal. Autumnal equinox is at 8:05 p.m. EDT on September 22.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

A front moves offshore early today taking showers with it, the last of them moving across southeastern MA as I write this (about 7:00 a.m.). It’s a cold front, but the air is not exactly “cold” behind it. The upper air and drying surface support quite a warm day today with the aid of high pressure moving in aloft combined with a healthy downsloping westerly breeze at the surface. So today will bring the feel of mid summer, other than the sun angle now being noticeably lower than that time of year. The air does cool tonight and Friday as high pressure builds toward our region but Friday is a splendid mid September day! The high overhead allows Friday night to cool down quite a bit even though some cloudiness slides by our region. Sunshine dominates Saturday as high pressure sits atop our region – a perfect day for outdoor activities! High pressure slides offshore Saturday night and sits to our east Sunday and Monday. Shorter range model guidance has shifted to a wetter look for a portion of Sunday with lots of clouds and shower chances. I’m leaning this way, but not quite as much as the guidance is, and for only a part of the day. Timing is still to be refined but as of this update I am leaning toward pre-dawn to mid morning for the greatest Sunday shower threat, after which we’ll see at least some partial clearing and a “not-bad” day, albeit noticeably more humid. With systems a bit more pronounced, i.e. Sunday’s disturbance forming a low pressure area as it moves out, and a little more defined high pressure area coming in behind it, Monday’s weather looks fair but less humid as a little bit of Canadian air would get pulled into the region. Temperatures do remain above normal as there is not a notable delivery of cool air with that high.

TODAY: Clouds and showers depart southeastern MA first thing, otherwise sun and patchy clouds. Humidity notable but reducing later. Highs 80-87 except sub-80 particularly near the South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Shower chances and fog patches pre-dawn. Lows 55-62. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy start with showers and patchy fog, then clouds break for sun by midday on. Humid. Highs 71-78. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifts to W.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 57-64. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 73-80. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

Warm but fair September 15. Shower potential early September 16 with a passing frontal system. Dry, cooler later September 16 through September 18 followed by a warm-up at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

Shower chances early and end of period, but overall pattern is dry with up-and-down temperatures and no extremes. Autumnal equinox is at 8:05 p.m. EDT on September 22.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

Low pressure approaches today, passes north of our region tonight, and departs to the east Thursday. Its warm front brings us a period of rain this evening, favoring areas north of I-90. Its cold front brings showers mainly during the few hours either side of sunrise Thursday, favoring the earlier part of that window, from west to east. Humidity edges up today, goes up more quickly tonight and early Thursday, then lowers again later Thursday as a wedge of subtropical air moves through with the passing system. High pressure builds in Friday and moves across the region Saturday providing fair weather with low humidity. The high slides offshore by Sunday when humidity comes back along with some clouds and a shower chance, though much of that day does look rain-free.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain chance by late-day especially north and west of Boston. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy evening with a period of rain, favoring north of I-90. Additional showers overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point spikes over 60. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with shower chances early, then a sun / cloud mix. Humid morning, then drying. Highs 78-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 71-78. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

Above normal temperatures early next week until a front goes by between late September 15 and early September 16, returning dry and seasonable weather to the region. Shower chances with the frontal passage, otherwise a mainly dry pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

Shower chances limited, dry weather dominant. Some up-and-down temps but no extremes seen. The autumnal equinox is at 8:05 p.m. EDT on September 22.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

Trough swings through today but you’ll hardly notice it other than some clouds passing by in the sky. Otherwise, it’s a pretty nice September day with mild and comfortably dry air. Unsettled weather is coming though as a low pressure area dives east southeastward and passes through our region later Wednesday through early Thursday. Its warm front gives our area a round of rainfall Wednesday evening. Its cold front follows it with showers Thursday morning. This quick mover is then gone and we dry out the remainder of Thursday, although the frontal boundary slows just enough with a wave of low pressure moving along it to bring the chance of some early morning showers on Friday near the South Coast. Otherwise, dry weather will be dominant here on Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds back in.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifts to NW.

TONIGHT: Clear, then high clouds arrive overnight. Inland low elevation fog patches. Lows 50-57. Wind N under 10 MPH then calm.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain chance by late-day especially north and west of Boston. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SE to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely until midday including a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Partly cloudy afternoon. Humid morning, then drying. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

High pressure slips offshore to end the weekend and the beginning of next week. A frontal boundary gets closer from the northwest but this time a southwesterly flow aloft for a few days will keep it from whipping through, instead keeping our region on the warmer side of it until a low goes by to the north and finally pulls it by the region, allowing drier, cooler weather to settle in for later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

Down the home stretch of astronomical summer we go with a pattern that features limited shower chances and a gradual cooling trend. The autumnal equinox is at 8:05 p.m. EDT on September 22.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

High pressure builds as upper level low pressure departs, resulting in fair, pleasant weather for today. While many folks use this as a travel day and not a day to enjoy, at least the weather favors travel! Our nice weather will continue on Tuesday even though a weak trough will scoot through the region with some clouds. You’ll find it a bit warmer than today. The outlook remains the same heading into midweek with a low pressure area set to move east southeast in a northwesterly flow aloft. This will cloud us up on Wednesday with episodes of showery weather Wednesday night and Thursday. This system exits by Friday and high pressure builds in that day with fair weather returning. A humidity spike accompanies Thursday’s unsettled weather, but it will be short-lived when a batch of dry air follows it quickly on Friday.

TODAY – LABOR DAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny morning then a sun / cloud mix. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifts to NW late.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Inland low elevation fog patches. Lows 50-57. Wind N under 10 MPH then calm.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Shower chance by late-day especially north and west of Boston. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SE to S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Scattered showers. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely through midday including a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Partly sunny with an additional shower possible in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 72-79. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

High pressure moves overhead then offshore between September 12 and 14 with fair weather and typical end-of-summer cooler mornings but warmer afternoons with notable temperature spreads from lows to highs. Watching the next frontal system for a shower potential later in the period – September 15 to early 16. If this front is slow enough, September 15 can end up a very warm day.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

The final five full days of astronomical summer carry a mainly fair weather pattern with 1 or 2 brief interruptions for showers from passing systems. Temperature ups and downs but with an overall cooling trend.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

A speed-bump in our weekend in the form of showers from early to mid morning today as a more vigorous than expected disturbance wheels through with the upper trough over our region. This does give way to fair weather with a sun cloud mix taking over from north to south by later morning onward. The rest of the forecast is basically unchanged with a nice Labor Day ahead, a quick-moving trough bringing a shower threat the first part of Tuesday, then the next system in a northwest flow bringing us unsettled weather later Wednesday into Thursday. More details on that on the next blog update!

TODAY: Lots of clouds and scattered showers into mid morning then a sun / cloud mix. Highs 68-75. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy with passing showers possible until midday, then more sunshine. Highs 70-77. Wind W shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior low elevations. Lows 50-57. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Shower chance returns late-day. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Possible showers. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

High pressure moves in then overhead then offshore between September 11 and 14 with fair, cooler weather at first then a warm-up. Next disturbance brings the chance of unsettled weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

Unsettled weather episodes should be brief early and again later in the period in an otherwise mostly dry pattern with some temperature ups and downs but nothing extreme.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

The large scale pattern across the country features a ridge of high pressure in the central US, which leaves our region in a northwest flow pattern on the east side of the ridge, with more amplification as an upper trough sits over our region now and drifts eastward into Atlantic Canada and the adjacent waters through the weekend. The flow around the back side of a surface low south of Nova Scotia will send some cloudiness into our region at times today and part of Sunday, which will be added to at times by diurnal cloud development. Pop-up shower chances are greatest west of I-95 this afternoon with limited coverage. Any area that does see a shower would only have it last a short time before it moved on. A trough may bring a quick-moving batch of showers in the pre-dawn hours to southeastern NH and northeastern MA Sunday, and the chance of a diurnal pop-up shower that day dwindles to nearly zero. Monday’s weather features more sunshine and less cloudiness and the rain chance drops to nil. So all in all, the holiday weekend is not bad, featuring mostly dry weather, a cooling trend on a north to northeast flow, and low humidity. Reminder that the north to northeast fetch will create rougher surf, some larger swells, and rip-current risks especially at north-facing and east-facing shores through the weekend. A trough swings through first thing Tuesday with clouds and perhaps a shower, and then clouds increase from the northwest ahead of the next approaching disturbance Wednesday. Guidance has trended faster in the medium range with that disturbance, indicating a shower chance may exist before that day is over. I’m leaning in that direction based on the type of pattern we will be in.

TODAY: Sun / cloud mix with clouds more dominant. A passing shower possible. Highs 68-75. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Shower chance is best overnight southeastern NH to northeastern MA. Lows 53-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun / cloud mix with sun more dominant. Highs 68-75. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Sun dominates. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds and a possible shower early, then clearing. Highs 70-77. Wind W shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior low elevations. Lows 50-57. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Shower chance returns late-day. Highs 68-75. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

Disturbances in a northwest flow are roughly timed to pass through early September 10 and late September 13 to early September 14 when brief shower threats occur, otherwise a mainly dry pattern with somewhat variable but overall near to slightly above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

Up-and-down temperature pattern with a couple unsettled weather episodes with quick-passing systems as the pattern remains generally the same in the waning days of astronomical summer.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

A disturbance passing by to the south brings some showers, even a few downpours, to the South Coast and Islands early today, while early to mid morning stratus / fog blanket a good portion of the region too. After this, we see more sun, mixed with clouds, and only a slight chance of a stray pop-up shower, so the day turns out mainly dry and on the warm side after the start described in my first sentence. Our Labor Day Weekend forecast remains decent. Pop-up showers are possible Saturday in response to upper level low pressure overhead. Surface low pressure to our east Saturday and Sunday brings us a cooling north to northeast flow. This air flow over the Gulf of Maine will enhance surf on north-facing and east-facing shores, so if you have beach and boating plans this weekend, keep that in mind. Monday will see the coolest morning, but the largest temperature rebound of the three “weekend” days, though some cloudiness may increase from the north late in the day in response to an approaching weak through. But, other than that pop-up shower threat Saturday, we will enjoy dry weather for the three day stretch. A low pressure trough passing by early Tuesday may produce a brief shower otherwise that day looks fair too.

TODAY: Low clouds / foggy areas much of the region, while heavier clouds and a few showers / downpours pass through the South Coast region, followed by a sun / cloud mix with a chance of a pop-up shower this afternoon. Highs 77-84. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 68-75. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 68-75. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds and a possible shower early, then clearing. Highs 70-77. Wind W shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

Disturbances in a northwest flow are roughly timed to pass through early September 10 and 13 when brief shower threats occur, otherwise a mainly dry pattern with somewhat variable but overall near to slightly above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

Up-and-down temperature pattern with a couple unsettled weather episodes with quick-passing systems indicated for mid month.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

This forecast takes us up through Labor Day Weekend, aka the next of several endings of summer, depending on how you mark it. Anyway, we start with an unsettled day today as a disturbance moving through causes widespread showers and potential embedded thunderstorms to start the morning, which will then end west to east by mid to late morning, lastly on Cape Cod, with some partial clearing following. With a cold front still to cross the region this afternoon, and a warm, humid air mass in place, we’ll have to watch for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop and move through later today. These, where they occur, should be relatively short-lived but can cause brief gusty wind and downpours. Drier air arrives tonight with clearing. Friday will still be a fairly warm day but with lower humidity, and the contrast between sun-heated land and colder air arriving aloft can help an isolated shower pop-up in the afternoon, but coverage would be isolated. As we move through the Labor Day Weekend, we still have the upper trough aloft but a cooler north to northeast flow at the surface Saturday and Sunday. A pop-up shower is not impossible Saturday, but we see mainly dry weather. Monday, high pressure noses in with fair weather, but the upper low is only slightly shifted to the east by then, and another surface trough will drop into the northerly flow behind it, bringing more clouds to our region to end the holiday weekend after a brighter start to the day.

TODAY: Cloudy start with areas of fog and widespread showers, some heavy, with a chance of thunder. Clouds break for sun later morning into afternoon but a shower or thunderstorm possible later in the day from west northwest to east southeast across the region. Highs 75-82. Humid. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH, but can be variable and gusty around any late-day showers/storms.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Wind W up to 10 MPH

FRIDAY: Sun / cloud mix. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 77-84. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 68-75. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 68-75. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 52-59. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

Disturbances in a northwest flow are roughly timed to pass through early September 8 and September 10 when brief shower threats occur, otherwise a mainly dry pattern with somewhat variable but overall near to slightly above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

Up-and-down temperature pattern with a couple unsettled weather episodes with quick-passing systems indicated for mid month.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

Most of the rain from this unsettled stretch fell yesterday, on the first of September. There was enough drying behind that disturbance for breaks in the clouds last night despite areas of low clouds and fog (which will dissipate this morning), and clouds can still break for sun at times during the day today. The next round of rainfall, the remains of an upstream storm complex, will pass through our region late tonight and be largely offshore by sunrise Thursday. That day, warmer, more humid air does get in, and with upper level low pressure overhead and a frontal boundary having been pushed north of the region but still having to sag back through to the south, we can see a few showers and thunderstorms that afternoon. Friday’s outlook is largely the same, with upper low pressure lingering and a chance of a pop-up shower, otherwise a drier, cooler trend. Labor Day Weekend’s first and second day are looking decent. I’ve backed-off on forecasting pop-up showers to more of a diurnal clouds sharing the sky with sun outlook, seasonable temperatures, and low humidity.

TODAY: More clouds than sun. Foggy areas early. Highs 66-73. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, mainly overnight. Lows 56-63. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partial sunshine. A pop-up shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, a few stronger gusts near any storms.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower possible early, especially southeastern MA and RI. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun / cloud mix. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 73-80. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun / cloud mix. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

Labor Day (September 7) sees clouds increase ahead of an approaching frontal system from the northwest which then pushes through with clearing the following day. Next round of unsettled weather is eyed for later September 9 into September 10 with fair weather following. Temperatures somewhat variable, but no extremes indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

Up-and-down temperature pattern with a couple unsettled weather episodes with quick-passing systems heading into mid month.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)

September opens with a stretch of unsettled weather as a couple disturbances move through the Northeast in a west northwest flow aloft. The first one brings fairly widespread showers to our region this morning into midday before tapering off. The second one’s rainfall is to be concentrated in the late night Wednesday to early morning Thursday time frame, with a fairly cloudy but rain-free day between that on Wednesday. Behind the second batch of wet weather Thursday comes breaks with higher humidity as we’re briefly in the warm sector of the second system before a cold front brings a shower and thunderstorm chance later that day. By Friday and Saturday, the system has exited and high pressure attempts to build in at the surface while upper level low pressure lingers aloft. This means that each of those days carries the chance of pop-up showers, but many more dry hours then not, along with cooler weather.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially mid morning to midday before tapering northwest to southeast. Highs 67-74. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of a shower. Lows 58-65. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog early. Highs 67-74. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely mainly overnight. Lows 56-63. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely early, then clouds break for sun at times with an additional shower or thunderstorm chance in the afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower possible early, especially southeastern MA and RI. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun / cloud mix. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun / cloud mix. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 66-73. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

Decreased but non-zero pop-up shower chance September 6. Next frontal system arrives late September 7 with shower chances, mainly at night, so the final two days of Labor Day Weekend are also mainly dry. Shower chances early September 8 and again September 10 with passing frontal systems. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

Up-and-down temperature pattern with a couple unsettled weather episodes with quick-passing systems heading into mid month.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 31 – SEPTEMBER 4)

This final day of August will feature a little September preview as a frontal boundary settles to our south and some cooler air enters our region from eastern Canada. It will be a nice day though with lots of sun in general, though it will be filtered by high cloudiness for a good part of the day the further south and southwest you are. We also have some fog patches in valley locations to start the day, but that will quickly dissipate. Coolest air will be along east-facing and north-facing shores today with a light northeasterly air flow. We open September with some unsettled weather as a series of disturbances move through the Northeast on a northwesterly air flow aloft, bringing episodic showers Tuesday (favoring morning-midday) and Wednesday (favoring evening and night), with one final warm front / cold front passage with a wavy frontal boundary on Thursday bringing additional shower and thunderstorm chances. On Friday, the mess exits, but upper level low pressure can stick kick off a pop-up shower as cooler air moves in.

TODAY: Filtered sun CT, RI, south central MA with brighter sun elsewhere. Any early fog patches vanish. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Fog patches in valleys. Showers arrive northwest to southeast toward dawn. Lows 60-67. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, especially morning to midday before tapering northwest to southeast. Highs 67-74. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of a shower. Lows 58-65. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog early. Highs 67-74. Wind variable to E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 56-63. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 70-77. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A shower possible early, especially southeastern MA and RI. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun / cloud mix. A pop-up shower possible. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

Labor Day Weekend – surface high pressure to the north, weak upper trough over the region results in near to below normal temperatures with mainly dry weather but a sun / cloud mix during each of the days. Cannot rule out pop-up diurnal showers favoring Saturday and Sunday but with isolated coverage. Indications for high pressure dominating with fair weather later in the period including a warming trend.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

A little more up-and-down temp pattern with a couple unsettled weather threats during this period, but far too soon for any detail.