DAYS 1-5 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)
The well-advertised stormy Saturday is ongoing as a potent upper low and associated surface low pressure system move through our region. A little different than a more typical west-to-east or southwest-to-northeast storm track we see with many of our storm systems, this one, in response to the upper level flow on the eastern side of a large-scale omega block, has a south southeastward course, but because the surface low is interacting with its upper level partner, its own track includes a cyclonic loop. This somewhat anomalous and complex set-up was responsible for the different direction of delivery, so to speak. The system’s warm front moved through last evening from the northwest preceded by a period of rain in some areas. Last night (and still this morning to the south) we sit in the warm sector before the storm’s cold front whips in from the north and as the system rapidly matures (occludes), its southeastward movement will put us in a powerful back-lash which will have its greatest impact from southern NH through northern MA early on and shift to the south with time as the system progresses. It’s a rather small system in size, but what it lacks in size it makes up for in potency with a small area of heavy rainfall (this stays mostly to the north). Some of you may have been woken up by thunderstorms overnight but those moved out in time for some morning sunshine before a rapid deterioration in conditions. Strongest winds today will occur in higher elevations and along the coast, typical of what we might see in a winter storm. And speaking of winter, the anomalously cold air aloft with this system is causing some mountain snow to our north, and some of our highest elevations of southwestern NH will be close to or just cold enough to see some mixing of wet snowflakes with rain there if it comes down heavily enough – not unheard of in May, but quite rare in general, and even more so given we’re nearly at month’s end and under 48 hours from the start of June. Look for some downed tree limbs and in some cases whole trees as they are now leafed-out and more susceptible to strong wind gusts. This can lead to some power outages. Also, along the coast, splash-over can lead to areas of flooding especially late this morning to early this afternoon as some of the strongest winds coincide with high tide. All of this starts to settle down steadily from north to south later today and tonight as the low pressure system exits the region. We’re in for a “better” day on Sunday, but with the trough in place, and sunshine heating the land, and yet another disturbance dropping in from the north, we can see some shower and thunderstorm development by later in the day or during the evening. Most areas should get through most of the day without a rain threat, however. While the core of this disturbance goes by Sunday night, enough cold air aloft remains that we can see a few additional pop-up showers on Monday, to start the month of June (new month / same pattern). We still have enough chilly air above us to not be able to rule out a pop up shower on Tuesday. It will be Wednesday when I believe we can expect something in the way of full (or at least abundant) sunshine with high pressure in control.
TODAY: Early sun to the south followed by clouds and periods of rain while to the north overcast with drizzle and an area of heavier rainfall for a time favoring late morning to midday, heaviest northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Embedded thunder possible. Very slight chance of mixed rain and wet snow in highest elevations of southwestern NH. Temperatures fall to 38-45 northern MA and southern NH, coldest in higher elevations, and 46-53 elsewhere in the morning then recover to late-day highs 51-58 regionwide. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-55 MPH, strongest in coastal areas and higher elevations.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing overnight.
SUNDAY: Sun then quite a few clouds. Mid to late afternoon shower threat develops from north to south including a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 62-69. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower possible. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.
DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 4-8)
Omega blocking pattern keeps our region under a trough of low pressure with a few shower chances and temperatures near to below normal.
DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 9-13)
Omega blocking pattern weakens slightly but remains in place with temperatures near to below normal and a couple unsettled weather chances.