DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)

The thickest wildfire smoke plume drifted south of our area late yesterday and continues there today, but some of that smoke will make a come-back as we move through the day today, so while the sun is not “browned out” like much of yesterday, you’ll still notice a smoky haze in the sky with a tendency for it to become more noticeable as the day goes on. A cold front will drop southward from northern New England and can trigger a few showers and thunderstorms in southern NH and mainly northeastern MA from mid afternoon to early evening, but I’m not expecting widespread coverage from this activity, which will quickly fade as the sun sets. The front will move through the region and bring a cooler and drier air mass into the region on Friday, but as upper winds turn more westerly again we’ll see a late-day increase in both high clouds and high altitude smoke again on Friday. Unlike yesterday, I’m not expecting much smoke to get near the surface with the exception of a portion of this evening to early Friday mainly southwest of Boston before everything gets pushed to the south. Additional high altitude smoke is likely to be in the sky this weekend, though it may be obscured by quite a bit more cloudiness on Saturday as a warm front approaches from a low pressure area now destined to pass fairly far to our north early Sunday. Trying to figure out the track and behavior of this system leading up to this has been a challenge, but I do think it brings only a brief chance for a little rainfall on Saturday with the passage of its warm front, with most of the shower and possible thunderstorm activity occurring late Saturday night and early Sunday morning with its cold front, followed by a return to fair weather during the day on Sunday, with high pressure building in behind the front, continuing to provide fair weather through Monday as well.

TODAY: Sun becomes hazy due to high altitude smoke returning. Isolated thunderstorms mid afternoon to early evening southern NH and northeastern MA. Highs 81-88. Dew point nearing 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH with gusts 20+ MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds depart but high altitude smoke thickens with pockets of near-surface smoke possible, especially west and south of Boston. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Brighter sun returns. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouds increase. Chance of a shower. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm late night west to east. Fog patches late. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Early clouds and lingering showers eastern areas, then lots of sun. Highs 78-85. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches low elevation areas. Lows 58-65. Dew point 50s. Wind calm.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)

Shower / t-storm chances greatest July 21, 23, 24. Overall pattern mainly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)

Shower / t-storm chances greatest mid period. Still mainly dry overall. Temperatures near normal but somewhat variable.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 15-19)

You’re now well aware that the smoke plume from Canada / Minnesota wildfires was squeezed and thickened by the jet stream, presenting much more impactfully in our region yesterday than predicted – enough to hold forecast high temperature down by several degrees, with virtual no 90+ readings in the WHW forecast area. The same will be true today and even part of Thursday, though no widespread 90+ readings were expected Thursday anyway. We’ll also see a reduction in humidity as a series of cold fronts drop through the region behind low pressure in eastern Canada, and breezy weather here between that low and high pressure to our south. We do run the chance of a quick-hitting shower or thunderstorm with the final front in the series in southern NH and eastern MA later Thursday, but that’s about it other than any early morning showers (remnants of thunderstorms) that pass through southern NH and eastern MA basically as I write this blog update. I don’t even think we’ll see much of anything trigger south of I-90 today as I had previously been expecting – maybe an isolated shower toward the South Coast should be about it. Friday’s set to be a less smoky, pleasant day with a nice northerly air flow and low humidity. Our weekend is still a little questionable. I’d been leaning toward more trough in eastern Canada deflecting an incoming disturbance to our southwest, but guidance is fighting me on this with its trend for a more northeastward track for the low. Ultimately, my estimation of eastern Canadian troughing was probably overcooked, but maybe so much so that the low coming our way will pass so far to the north, all we end up having to deal with are a couple of shower and t-storm threats from a warm frontal passage Saturday and a cold frontal passage Sunday. Obviously, timing and details are still in the process of being worked out, so generic wording today will hopefully be followed by more distinctive wording on the next update.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Considerable high to mid altitude smoke. Passing plumes of near-surface smoke. Possible shower / t-storm very early southern NH / northeastern MA. Isolated South Coast shower later. Highs 83-90, cooler parts of Cape Cod / Islands. Dew point drops below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

TONIGHT: Smoke / haze. Patchy clouds. Lows 62-69. Dew point sub-60. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Smoke / haze thins. Partly cloudy. A late-day t-storm possible southern NH / eastern MA. Highs 82-89. Dew point sub-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, except 75-82 some coastal areas of eastern MA / Cape Cod. Dew point 50s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouds increase. Chance of a shower. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Chance of a shower. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)

Shower / t-storm chances greatest July 21, 23, 24. Overall pattern mainly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)

Shower / t-storm chances greatest mid period. Still mainly dry overall. Temperatures near normal but somewhat variable.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 14-18)

Today we turn up the heat and humidity but keep it breezy between high pressure to our south and a vigorous low pressure area moving across southeastern Canada. The latter will trigger strong to severe thunderstorms in southern Quebec and northern New England later today into this evening, but that activity will fade as it heads southward, surviving as a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm in to southern NH and northern MA Wednesday morning, and regenerating as mainly isolated showers and storms south of I-90 midday into afternoon Wednesday before its triggering frontal boundary pushes away. That boundary will serve to knock down the humidity Wednesday while it will still be fairly hot. Another front heads southward into the region on Thursday and can trigger a few more showers and thunderstorms mainly later in the day, but that day will not be as hot as Wednesday. The cooling trend will continue into Friday as the second front pushes through the region and off to the south. Currently, I expect Saturday to feature fair weather, though there may be some high and mid level clouds to contend with, however it should be quite comfortable to be outside that day.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine along with patchy clouds. Highs 74-81 Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod, 82-89 remainder of South Coast, 90-97 elsewhere. Dew point climbs to middle / upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. An overnight shower or thunderstorm possible in southern NH and northern MA. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A morning shower possible mainly in MA and then isolated midday to mid afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible south of I-90. Highs 80-87 Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod, 88-95 elsewhere. Dew point falls below 60. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point sub-60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible mainly southern NH and eastern MA late afternoon or evening. Highs 83-90. Dew point briefly spikes 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts over 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point stays in 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH but with coastal sea breezes developing.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point 55 or lower. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point in 50s. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 19-23)

Still leaning dry but watching for the chance of a disturbance being close enough for a shower threat on July 19, but more likely to see higher humidity and shower chances the first half of next week. Temperatures somewhat variable but around normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 24-28)

Drier early through mid period before shower and thunderstorm chances increase later in the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 13-17)

High pressure sits over our region to start the day today but sinks to the south as the day goes on, opening the door to increasing warmth and humidity which you’ll notice by this afternoon if you’re outside. At the same time, a disturbance that rode over the high pressure ridge to our west will make a run into the region as it weakens later today and this evening, potentially triggering isolated showers and thunderstorms, though the majority of the region will see nothing from that. You may notice a hazier look to the sky today as well. This is from high altitude smoke from fires occurring in Canada. Heat and humidity increases and peaks on Tuesday. A second surge of high altitude smoke will filter the sun a bit more in the afternoon. A cold front will be moving into northern New England and can trigger some strong to severe thunderstorms up there (western Maine, northern to central VT & NH), but that activity is expected to fade as it moves southward, and when the front goes through our region Wednesday morning, only a few showers may survive the trip across the region. While Wednesday is still a fairly hot day with no significant air mass change in terms of temperature, the dew point will drop as some drier air makes its away into the region from the northwest behind the front. I did mention the heat peaks Tuesday, but there is one exception, and that is the South Coast that has a southwest wind Tuesday and is not as hot, but gets a northwest wind on Wednesday, driving the heat into that region, making that day the peak hot one for that area. As our pattern continues to feature a low pressure trough in southeastern Canada and a high pressure ridge to our west, another cold front will move through during Thursday. This front will have limited moisture to work with, and therefore I’m expecting only scattered showers and thunderstorms as opposed to a sweeping line of them. This will introduce cooler and drier air for Friday.

TODAY: Sunshine become filtered by high altitude smoke, then interrupted by some later-day cloudiness including the chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, especially north and west of Boston. Highs 82-89. Dew point climbs to the lower 60s. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High altitude smoke and patchy clouds. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine along with passing clouds. Highs 74-81 Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod, 82-89 remainder of South Coast, 90-97 elsewhere. Dew point climbs to middle / upper 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A morning shower possible. Highs 80-87 Nantucket and Outer Cape Cod, 88-95 elsewhere. Dew point falls below 60. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point sub-60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible. Highs 83-90. Dew point briefly spikes 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts over 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point falls to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point stays in 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH but with coastal sea breezes developing.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 18-22)

Expecting a trough in southeastern Canada to deflect incoming disturbances to the southwest of our region over the weekend of July 18-19, so while many forecasts don’t lean this way, mine leans rain-free with seasonable temperatures. The July 20-22 period presents greater chances for showers and thunderstorms along with higher humidity in the scenario I’m expecting.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 23-27)

Higher humidity with shower and t-storm chances early in the period followed by drier weather again. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 12-16)

High pressure continues to provide pleasant summer weather through Monday, but while we have plenty of sunshine, we will see an increase in high altitude smoke from fires in Canada, which will filter the sun. High pressure sinks to our south by Tuesday into Wednesday as low pressure tracks across southeastern Canada from west to east. This will bring us a breezy blast of heat with a wind shift from west to northwest early Wednesday as a trough passes by with nothing more than a brief shower chance. A stronger cold front drops into the region on Thursday with a better shower and t-storm chance then.

TODAY: A few patchy clouds otherwise lots of sun becoming filtered by increasing high altitude smoke. Highs 78-85. Dew point under 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High altitude smoke otherwise clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point under 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine. Some late-day cloud patches. Highs 82-89. Dew point nearing 60. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: High altitude smoke and patchy clouds. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine along with passing clouds. Highs 82-89 South Coast, 90-97 elsewhere. Dew point 60+. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A morning shower possible. Highs 87-94 except cooler Cape Cod / Islands. Dew point 60+ but may fall to upper 50s. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing later in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A thunderstorm possible. Highs 81-88. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 17-21)

Contrary to a lot of guidance, I’m leaning rain-free July 17-19 at this point (a change from my previous outlook), followed by higher humidity and shower / t-storm chances later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 22-26)

Higher humidity with shower and t-storm chances early to mid period followed by a drying trend. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 11-15)

High pressure provides great summer weather this weekend and Monday, then sinks to the south to allow a shot of heat in Tuesday and Wednesday. Two disturbances will pass by, one Tuesday night and another one later Wednesday, on the back side of low pressure passing to our north, but at this point it does not look like the timing will allow thunderstorms in southern Canada and northern New England to survive down into our region, but it will be something I’ll monitor.

TODAY: Filtered sun through high clouds this morning. Brighter sun and a few passing clouds this afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew falls below 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Dew point in 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Lots of sun. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point nearing 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 82-89, cooler South Coast. Dew point around 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 86-93. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 66-73. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 85-92. Dew point near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 16-20)

Shower and t-storm potential exists as low pressure passes to our north on the July 18-19 weekend. Additional details available as we get closer. Much of this period will feature rain-free weather and near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 21-25)

A generally seasonable pattern with brief shots of heat possible. Can’t rule out a few passing or pop-up storms but much of the time looks dry.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 10-14)

We’re in the final hours of this bout of more humid and very warm weather as a cold front slips southward across the region today. The timing of this front is early enough so that the air mass will already be starting to dry out and stabilize north of I-90 by midday, with the greatest chance for shower and isolated thunderstorm activity occurring from the I-90 belt southward this afternoon and early evening. A westerly flow aloft may keep a canopy of cloudiness over much of the region from midday to early evening, but does set up the potential for a colorful sunset in some areas as it departs later on. (These colorful sunset predictions are iffy and highly dependent on location and fairly precise timing of clearing and your location relative to the edge of the cloud deck). Surface high pressure from Canada and a weak trough aloft combine to bring our region fair and pleasant summer weather Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, the surface high drifts to our south, allowing it to heat up with more humidity. As previously mentioned, I’ll monitor upstream disturbances coming over the top of a high pressure ridge to our west for cloudiness (and perhaps a shower / t-storm threat) that can mess up the forecast as we head toward early next week, although I’m not expecting any big change potential at this time.

TODAY: Most sun morning. Least sun afternoon. Potential for showers and a possible thunderstorm mainly I-90 belt southward afternoon to early evening. Highs 74-81 South Coast, 82-89 elsewhere. Dew point around 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts, shifting to NW from north to south.

TONIGHT: Clearing except patchy ground fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point falls toward 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Dew point in 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Lots of sun. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point nearing 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 82-89, cooler South Coast. Dew point around 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 86-93. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)

Front moves through with a shower and t-storm chance July 15 with a leaning toward first half of day. Watching shower potential from passing disturbance about July 17 otherwise mainly dry late next week. Temperatures show some typical variability but should average not far from normal for this time of year.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)

No big changes to the outlook here. Generally seasonable pattern overall, but can contain a brief shot of hotter weather and a shower / t-storm chance when a disturbance or front passes by. Too far out to know timing on any of that potential.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 9-13)

No significant changes today. High pressure sinks to our south and we heat up somewhat today, then have to watch for a couple showers and thunderstorms mainly well north and west of Boston later today as a disturbance approaches from the west. These fade this evening before the chance reappears Friday afternoon and early evening with a cold front moving through the region from northwest to southeast. This sets up a nice weekend with fair weather and warm but fairly dry air for the middle of July as high pressure builds in. This high sinks to the south and we see a bit more heat by the start of next week. Building high pressure to our west at upper level does mean we’ll have to be conscious of disturbances coming over the ridge and down our way in the northwesterly air flow aloft by later in the weekend and Monday. Sometimes the guidance does not pick up well on these several days in advance. So while the outlook currently calls for fair weather, keep in mind that can change quickly as we get to “days 4 & 5”.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. A stray evening thunderstorm is possible in central MA and southern NH. Highs 77-84 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, primarily late afternoon to early evening. Highs 82-89 except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of an evening shower. Lows 61-68. Dew point falls below 60. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Dew point in 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Lots of sun, maybe more clouds late. Highs 80-87. Dew point in 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point nearing 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point around 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)

Watching the period from July 14 to early July 15 for some higher humidity including shower and t-storm chances as low pressure passes north of the region. Fair weather mid to late period. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)

Overall pattern fairly seasonable but a little temperature variability with one or two shower / t-storm chances with passing fronts from the west. No sustained high heat indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 8-12)

High pressure builds in today with fair weather and pleasantly dry air moving in. The high will sink to the south and allow it to heat up a little more on Thursday, but not to the levels of last week’s heat. While Thursday features mainly fair weather, I can’t rule out a stray thunderstorm wandering into areas mainly well west and north of Boston toward evening in response to a disturbance approaching from the west. This disturbance passes through at night, but with the loss of sunshine, fuel to sustain any storms will be lacking and I expect anything that did make it into the area to dissipate. On Friday, however, a cold front will move through the region during the afternoon and evening, with higher humidity in place ahead of it. This provides a better chance for a more widespread shower and thunderstorm occurrence. The front does sweep through Friday evening and night, and introduce fair weather and lower humidity for the weekend. As a high pressure ridge builds to our west, we may contend with some “spill-over” cloud cover by later on Sunday, otherwise it looks like abundant sun and a few fair weather clouds both weekend days.

TODAY: Early clouds mainly Cape Cod / South Coast, otherwise sunshine. Highs 80-87. Dew point falls under 60. Wind up to 10 MPH starts out N, shifts to E, then ends up S by day’s end.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior low elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind S shifts to W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. A stray evening thunderstorm is possible in central MA and southern NH. Highs 77-84 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89 except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of an evening shower. Lows 61-68. Dew point falls below 60. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Dew point in 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Lots of sun, maybe more clouds late. Highs 80-87. Dew point in 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 13-17)

Watching the period from later July 13 to early July 15 for some higher humidity including shower and t-storm chances as low pressure passes north of the region. Fair weather returns later in the period. Temperatures slightly variable, averaging around normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 18-22)

Overall pattern fairly seasonable but a little temperature variability with one or two shower / t-storm chances with passing fronts from the west. No sustained high heat indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 7-11)

Low pressure passing south of our region, in combination with high pressure in eastern Canada, gives our region a wet and cool day. Widespread rain and drizzle is expected with some pockets of heavier rain and the chance of some embedded thunder, though the latter will be a vast exception and not the rule. This system departs to the east with rainfall tapering off tonight. Clouds may linger early on Wednesday, especially in eastern areas, but sunshine will return and it will end up being quite a nice day. The high pressure area sinks to the south and it heats up a bit for Thursday but with continued dry weather. A cold front swings through the region on Friday bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms before drier and slightly cooler air arrives behind the front for the start of the weekend.

TODAY: Cloudy. Periodic rain with areas of drizzle and fog. Some rain can be heavy. Highs 67-74. Dew point in 60s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH with higher gusts South Coast / Cape Cod.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain / drizzle ends west to east. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point around 60. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds mostly I-95 belt eastward, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point under 60. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH, including coastal sea breezes, then S by late-day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior low elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind S shifts to W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of an evening shower. Lows 61-68. Dew point falls below 60. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)

Fair weather start and end of period. Watching the period July 13-15 for some higher humidity including shower and t-storm chances as low pressure passes north of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)

Overall pattern fairly seasonable but a little temperature variability with one or two shower / t-storm chances with passing fronts from the west.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 6-10)

This week starts with complex set-up that brings the chance for a wide-ranging rainfall event. The frontal boundary that went by over the weekend, ending our hot spell, sits just to our south. A couple of low pressure areas will move eastward along it today into Tuesday, the first of the two producing most of the rain south of I-90 but also bringing the potential for some narrow bands of more intense rainfall, and the second one bring a more general rain / drizzle producer across more of the region tonight into Tuesday. Precipitation amounts in a general sense will be lightest north of I-90 and heaviest from I-90 southward. There can be a few limited areas that see in excess of 3 inches, but a 1 to 3 inch rainfall is expected in those southern areas in general, with up to around 1 inch to the north. As the second low consolidates and intensifies a little through Tuesday, we’ll see enhanced wind near the South Coast, but you’ll notice it a bit breezy elsewhere in the region too. Finally this system moves away by early Wednesday with any lingering showers / drizzle tapering off and ending from west to east. Wednesday looks like a nice day as high pressure builds in with the return of sunshine and a nice warm-up, but fairly low humidity. This continues Thursday with modest humidity but a little dash of heat with some areas peaking around 90. This is not a return to the high heat of last week, and will also be short-lived, as a cold front moves in on Friday bringing lots of clouds, capping the heat, but spiking the humidity along with a shower and thunderstorm threat.

TODAY: Cloudy. Rain, some heavy at times, mainly south of I-90, with a chance of a few periods of rain to the north. Highs 68-75. Dew point rises to 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Rain, heavy at times evening South Coast to I-90, increasing rain chances to the north. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periodic rain with areas of drizzle and fog. Highs 67-74. Dew point in 60s. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH with higher gusts South Coast / Cape Cod.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain / drizzle ends west to east. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point around 60. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds southeastern MA, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point under 60. Wind N shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior low elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84 South Coast, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 11-15)

July 11-12 weekend looks mainly dry other than a possible pop-up shower in southern areas on July 11. Lower humidity / seasonable temperatures expected those days. Humidity and warmth increase early next week with a shower and thunderstorm chance (especially around July 14), before fair weather returns.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 16-20)

Overall pattern fairly seasonable but a little temperature variability with one or two shower / t-storm chances with passing fronts from the west.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 5-9)

The hot air mass of the last several days has been pushed out of the region by a cold front. We’ll have quite a nice Sunday as high pressure in eastern Canada sends lower humidity our way. There will be more clouds to the south as the front that went by slows down and comes to a stop off the South Coast, but it will be a rain-free day and rather pleasant in comparison to what we went through since midweek. However, now we have to keep an eye on an area of low pressure set to track slowly along that frontal boundary. While we’ll be seeing even cooler air on Monday and Tuesday, we’ll see it becoming rather cloudy with our rain chances increasing, first to the south on Monday while areas to the north stay drier, and then across all of the region on Tuesday, when some beneficial rainfall is expected. The low pressure wave will shift to the east on Wednesday when we’ll see improvement, and then high pressure will build in with the return of fair and seasonably warm July weather by Thursday.

TODAY: Most sun southern NH / northern MA. More limited sun southern MA / eastern CT / RI. Highs 81-88, coolest eastern coastal areas to Cape Cod. Dew point below 60. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point nearing 60. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers mainly South Coast to I-90 belt. Highs 72-79. Dew point around or just over 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers becoming widespread from south to north. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SE to E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely, some heavy. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind E 5-15 MPH, gusts 20+ MPH possible especially south of I-90.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers diminish. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A shower possible especially south of I-90 early. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point in 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point in 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)

Brief shot of heat and humidity including the chance of showers and thunderstorms on July 10 as a cold front moves through by nighttime. Fair, lower humidity expected for the July 11-12 weekend. Increasing humidity and shower chances come later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 15-19)

Overall pattern features west to east flow with a few passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm opportunities, but no prolonged unsettled weather. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)

Happy 250th to the USA! While I think the majority of locations planning fireworks celebrations this evening will get them in without much difficulty, mother nature may try to put on her own fireworks show in some locations. It’ll come down to the details of thunderstorm development and movement of storms as we move through afternoon into evening. I’m still of the opinion that the majority of our region will deal with little or no significant activity, but there can be some scattered heavier showers and storms around, primarily from mid afternoon to very early evening from north to south. Some short range guidance has indicated a couple additional showers and storms can be in the region into early tonight, but I’m leaning away from this information being correct, as I have seen quite a few similar errors in this guidance of late (some of it is still in experimental mode). So I’ll lean optimistic for the evening hours when we start to see an air mass change from the hot and fairly humid one we’ve had into a less hot and less humid one that will make our Sunday quite nice. After that we turn our attention to the front that went by, as it will slow down and come to a stop just south of our region and be the focus for an area of low pressure moving along it early next week. Based on current expectation, I think our greatest chance to see additional rainfall will be south of I-90 on Monday and more widespread in the region for Tuesday. This should taper off with just a few lingering showers Wednesday as the low pressure wave departs. Tomorrow’s blog update will focus a little more on the Monday through Wednesday time frame. In the mean time, stay cool, hydrated, and safe today!

TODAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, greatest chance being west of I-95 and south of I-90. Highs 88-95 except 80-87 parts of Cape Cod / Islands. Dew point 60s. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH shifts to NW late-day.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a shower or thunderstorm possible early mainly RI / eastern CT. Clearing overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point drops to 50s. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest coastal areas. Dew point sub-60. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point sub-60. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Possible showers South Coast. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Showers possible South Coast evening then anywhere overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers diminish. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A shower possible especially south of I-90 early. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)

A warm shot early period then a cold front may cause a thunderstorm and introduce a more seasonable air mass mid period before warmth and humidity and shower / t-storm chances return later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)

Overall pattern features west to east flow with a few passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm opportunities, but no prolonged unsettled weather. Temperatures near to above normal.

COMMENTARY

Most of yesterday’s high temps in the region were in the middle to upper 90s. There were a couple locations that “officially” touched 100, though Boston’s sensor accuracy is in question so their 100 was likely a 99 (and won’t be corrected). They hit 100+ last summer (June 24) and some media is wailing how rare it is to see a 100-degree reading two summers in a row. Yes, statistically it’s fairly rare, but even more rare was the time it hit 100+ FOUR times in the same summer: 1911. There are always anomalies in stats driven by something with a significant chaos factor. That’s just how it works. Anyway, just keeping it real as always. On we go!

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

Our hot stretch continues for two more days, though tomorrow, Independence Day, is a transition day. Today we remain under high pressure aloft with high pressure at the surface to our south and a generally westerly air flow of high heat and fairly high humidity. Again a west northwest wind coming off the hills can dry out the coastal plain at time – which is what helped launch Boston’s temp toward the century mark yesterday – the dew point which had be in the lower 70s just hours before had fallen to the mid 60s. Watch for that again today, although officially I am not forecasting anybody to hit 100 – just many 90s. If the wind lightens up enough, feeble coastal sea breezes can occur, but for the most part, we’ll be looking at a land breeze and very hot weather. Parts of Cape Cod and of course Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard are more exposed to ocean influence so it won’t be quite as hot there, obviously. It will be rain-free today, in general, but I cannot rule out a pop-up isolated air mass thunderstorm today and a passing storm somewhere this evening or tonight with a weak disturbance coming through in the northwest flow aloft. Our transition out of the hot spell takes place on the Saturday holiday as a cold front drops through the region. My current thought is that a pre-frontal trough will trigger initial shower and thunderstorm activity as early as late morning into midday, with the threat of this activity lasting through mid afternoon north of I-90 then shifting to the south mid afternoon to very early evening. Cells may be more numerous the further west you are, and less so further east. I do think that all activity will be offshore by the time of the scheduled evening fireworks displays, as it stands now, but I will monitor the situation very closely. Humidity will remain high on Saturday and it will also be another hot day with many areas reaching or exceeding 90, but not getting close to the levels of yesterday and today due to more cloudiness and the shower / thunderstorm chance, as well as the front passing through and shifting the wind from north to south, introducing a new air mass to the region by the end of the day. With favorable timing, it will be quite comfortable in comparison to previous hours by Saturday night. Sunday looks like a decent summer day with a fair amount of sun, seasonably warm air, and lower humidity with an area of high pressure in eastern Canada. This high will hang out up there into early next week as a wave of two of low pressure ride along the frontal boundary to our south. Right now, I think some shower activity will skirt the South Coast but remain mostly to our south on Monday, before high pressure to the north retreats enough to allow it into our region by Tuesday, which looks like an unsettled day.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. A remote chance of an isolated thunderstorm this afternoon. Highs 92-99 except 84-91 Cape Cod. Dew most mostly 65+ but can fall under that at times in the coastal plain. Wind W 5-15 MPH with a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. An isolated thunderstorm possible. Lows 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms especially late morning to mid afternoon, except until late afternoon South Coast region. Highs 88-95. Dew point 65+ but lowering from north to south later in the day. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW from north to south by late-day. Higher wind gusts can occur near any storms.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point falls below 60 late. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest coastal areas. Dew point sub-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point sub-60. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Possible showers South Coast. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Showers possible South Coast evening then anywhere overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 70-77. Dew point 65+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

Showers may linger July 8. Shower and thunderstorm a slight potential about July 10 and a greater potential by July 12. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

Overall pattern features west to east flow with a few passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm opportunities, but no prolonged unsettled weather. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 2-6)

While we are in a hot stretch, despite some media claims it is not the “hottest in years”. We’ll start by making that clear. Avoid the hype and sensationalism and just stick to the facts. The fact is, high pressure ridging has us in a hot stretch of weather which will be lasting into the Independence Day holiday on Saturday, but shut down when a cold front drops through the region that morning and midday. Before that, hot and mainly rain-free weather is the story, though we have to watch for isolated pop-up t-storms as well as incoming “ridge rider” storm complexes or their remnants from the west and north. One such complex came through our region in morphing form (trying to regenerate as it had initially weakened), giving some areas downpours, some areas little or no rain, some wind, and a generally decent lightning show, even if just in the distance. Those systems are not well forecast by short range guidance, so always keep an close eye on what’s going on if you have outdoor plans. I’m still leaning toward an earlier frontal passage (by midday) across much of the region Saturday, of course reaching the South Coast later on. By evening I suspect that a good portion of the region will be quiet with the intense heat having been pushed out of the region. Sunday and Monday look more comfortable and while there may be some varying cloud cover from low pressure on the frontal boundary to our south, I suspect that is going to be kept mostly to the south by high pressure in eastern Canada and we will miss out here on any additional rain during that period of time.

TODAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Only a remote chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Highs 93-100 except 85-92 South Coast. Dew point 65+ but may drop to 55-62 in the coastal plain. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 71-78. Dew point 65+ but may start out below that in some areas. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Plenty of sun. A few clouds. A remote chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 92-99 except 84-91 Cape Cod. Dew most mostly 65+ but can fall again in coastal plain. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 71-78. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms especially morning-midday, may linger until later in the day South Coast region. Highs 85-92. Dew point 65+ then lowering. Wind SW shifting to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible near any storms.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point falls below 60 late. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 81-88, coolest coastal areas. Dew point sub-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point sub-60. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)

Greatest chance of unsettled weather July 7-8 and again July 10. Overall pattern is less hot with high pressure to our north and a frontal boundary to our south..

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)

Overall pattern features west to east flow with a few passing disturbances bringing shower and t-storm opportunities, but no prolonged unsettled weather. Temperatures near to above normal with the return of some hotter weather possible.