DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 29 – MARCH 4)

On this Leap Day 2024 we have a one-day blast of the feel of winter with a combination of wind and cold. This air mass was delivered by the strong cold front that swept across there region late last evening with a rain squall after a day of gusty winds, rain showers, and mild air. But now it’s back to reality with an air mass some 20 to 25 degrees colder than yesterday and a wind chill making it feel even colder than that. We’ll also end up with some clouds passing quickly across the sky later this morning into this afternoon, and some of those may produce snow showers. These will be induced by moisture streaming eastward from the Great Lakes region. Tonight, the wind will slacken this evening but not completely diminish. However as a small area of high pressure slides to our south and then southeast by Friday, a shift of the wind to southwest will take place, and initiate a warm-up which will be notable on Friday with an approximate 10-degree temperature rise over today’s daytime highs. It will also be the weather pick of the next several days with a fair amount of sunshine. The weekend is going to feature a lot more cloudiness, especially Saturday when some rain is also likely to arrive as a small low pressure area drifts our way via the Mid Atlantic. I’m on the fence still with Sunday’s forecast. I’m pretty certain the rain threat will be gone, but I’m not so sure we clear out very much. I’m still going for some partial sun anyway, but clouds can very well be more stubborn. It will be a modestly mild first weekend of March though, either way. Not a lot of push to systems is expected early next week either and low pressure may lurk not far away, so Monday’s forecast leans to the cloudy side at this point, but holding off on much chance of any rain at this point.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of snow flurries. Highs 32-39. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing somewhat later in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 30-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Good chance of rain, especially midday and afternoon. Patchy fog. Highs 44-51. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain evening. Patchy fog. Lows 37-44. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partial sunshine possible, otherwise lots of clouds. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT & MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 38-45. Highs 46-53. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 5-9)

Additional unsettled weather with low pressure in the region until about March 7 or 8 when a drier westerly air flow will return fair weather to the region. No temperature extremes indicated, but a colder trend late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 10-14)

Potential storm signal around March 10-11. Drier trend should follow that. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 3)

A dynamic set-up is featured for the final 2 days of February, making it feel like spring then reminding you that winter is still here. A strong low pressure area passing to our north will drag a sharp cold front eastward toward the region today and across the WHW forecast area from west to east this evening. Ahead of this front comes mild air, a gusty wind, quite strong at times, and waves of rain showers. A final band of heavier rain should accompany the front and this is when some areas can see their strongest wind gusts. A rapid wind shift and temperature drop with the passage of the front may lead to the rain mixing with or changing to wet snow for a brief period of time before ending, but it could snow hard enough, especially in areas north of I-90 and west of I-95, for a quick slushy coating on some surfaces. With a temperature drop overnight, we’ll have to watch for icy areas by Thursday morning. If there’s some good news with this, it’s that a strong and gusty breeze and rapidly lowering dew point will help dry many surfaces before a freeze up can occur, but be aware just in case. Thursday itself will feel more like winter with temperatures well below what they peak at today, a gusty wind, and a sun/cloud mix. Additionally, some snow flurries may migrate into our region via the Great Lakes region. Winds settle down and any flurries end by Thursday night. High pressure slides south of the region Friday with fair, milder weather. Another low pressure area moves into the region on Saturday with a cloudy sky and a chance of some rain, but this system will be quite weak in comparison to the one passing through our region today. A sliver of dry air behind Saturday’s weak system should bring rain-free conditions Sunday but possibly some sunny intervals, though clouds may be stubborn.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Downpours with thunder possible. Highs 52-59, coolest South Coast. Wind S increasing to 15-25 MPH inland where gusts can exceed 40 MPH and 25-35 MPH coast where gusts can exceed 50 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers, some heavy, including the chance of a thunderstorm, during the evening, ending from west to east late evening / overnight, possibly as mixed rain/snow or a period of wet snow. Lows 25-32. Wind S 15-35 MPH, strongest coastal areas, higher gusts, shifting to W from west to east by late evening / overnight.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of snow flurries. Highs 32-39. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing somewhat later in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 30-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Patchy fog. Highs 44-51. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain evening. Patchy fog. Lows 37-44. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partial sunshine. Highs 45-52. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 4-8)

Additional unsettled weather with low pressure in the region until about March 7 when a drier westerly air flow will return fair weather to the region. No temperature extremes indicated, but a colder trend late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 9-13)

Fair weather to start the period, additional unsettled weather opportunities mid to late period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 2)

February has featured several mornings that started with heavy frost after a night of clear sky and light / calm wind. This morning is one of those for a good portion of the region, including right here in my own location. In fact, I’m starting to wonder if I’ve had more frost accumulation than snow accumulation this month. 😉 … Jokes aside, we have a very nice day ahead, despite an increase in cloud cover as we head through the afternoon. After a chilly early morning, temperatures will rebound nicely, with many areas cracking 50 by midday and areas away from the coast reaching well into the 50s by mid afternoon. Coastal communities will be on the cooler side as the wind will be light southeast to south – at least partially off the ocean water. Tonight, the pressure gradient tightens up ahead of an approaching cold front. This will continue through the day Wednesday too. Episodes of rain showers will occur both tonight and Wednesday. The cold front itself will not arrive until Wednesday evening when it’s due to sweep west to east across the region, accompanied by one final round of heavier rainfall. Some locations may see this rain end as a mix of precipitation or wet snow as cold air will be incoming very quickly as the front goes by. At most, a brief slushy accumulation of snow may occur on some surfaces mainly west and north of Boston Wednesday night before dry air arrives on a gusty, shifted wind. The final day of the month on Thursday (Leap Day) will feature a sun/cloud mix with a gusty wind and chilly air, made to feel colder by the wind. We welcome March on Friday with a fair and slightly milder day with less wind as high pressure sinks to the south of New England. This high will slide offshore and make way for a weak area of low pressure to lift northeastward from the Mid Atlantic toward southern New England, bringing clouds and possibly some wet weather back into the region for the beginning of the weekend on Saturday. There’s some disagreement in the medium range guidance as to the movement of this feature, so treat the outlook with a grain of salt until I can refine the timing / impact expectations.

TODAY: Sunshine fades later as clouds increase. Highs 48-53 coast, 53-58 inland. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Lows 45-52. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Highs 52-59, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts likely.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers, some heavy, including the chance of a thunderstorm, during the evening, ending from west to east late evening / overnight, possibly as mixed rain/snow or a period of wet snow. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW from west to east.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clouds return. Lows 30-37. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Patchy fog. Highs 44-51. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 3-7)

Optimistically calling for fair weather March 3 to finish off the first weekend of the new month, but additional unsettled weather from low pressure hanging around offshore / near the coast can occur before another trough from the west with additional wet weather sweeps eastward through the region. The period may end with dry, chilly weather and a stronger westerly air flow.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 8-12)

Fair weather to start the period, additional unsettled weather opportunities mid to late period. Temperatures above normal for the period, but may be a colder trend with time.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 1)

Some quick and notable weather changes are on our menu over the next few days to round out the month of February and welcome in March too. It breaks down like this. First, a disturbance and warm front go through the region this morning with lots of clouds and a few inconsequential rain and snow showers, followed by the return of sunshine and a milder afternoon. The mild air will be dominant through Wednesday afternoon, and up to the arrival and passage of a strong cold front Wednesday evening, we’ll be in a robust southwesterly air flow. We’ll get to enjoy a fair amount of sun for at least part of Tuesday before clouds regain control thereafter. Rounds of rain showers are slated for Tuesday evening and off and on during Wednesday, but there can be some rain-free times Wednesday too. I’m just not expecting much in the way of any sunshine on Wednesday. The strongest round of precipitation – moderate to heavy showers and even a potential thunderstorm – comes on Wednesday evening just ahead of the cold front, which will sweep across the region fairly quickly. The temperature drop associated with this frontal passage may be quick enough that the rain ends as a mix of rain/snow or even a period of wet snow in some areas, but any accumulation would be limited. We will have to watch for the formation of ice on untreated surfaces that don’t dry out by Thursday morning, as the temperature will have fallen to near or below freezing by then, especially from the Boston / Providence areas westward. Dry air, a gusty wind, and temperatures above freezing (though still in the 30s) for much of the day Thursday will eliminate any icy patches. High pressure slides quickly to our south by Friday, with fair weather, a cold start, and a milder afternoon.

TODAY: Lots of clouds with a few passing rain and/or snow showers morning followed by the return of abundant sunshine from west to east. Highs 45-52. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35, mildest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 50-57, coolest along the South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a good chance of rain showers. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Highs 52-59, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts likely.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with rain showers, some heavy, including the chance of thunderstorms, during the evening, ending from west to east late evening / overnight, possibly as mixed rain/snow or a period of wet snow. Lows 28-35. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW from west to east.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-27. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 2-6)

Watching for a quick, semi-sneaky low pressure area that can start the first weekend of March with at least cloudiness and potentially a bit of wet weather instead of the previously dry forecast, but the majority of the first weekend of March should end up rain-free with fairly mild temperatures. Additional refining of the weekend outlook will take place in coming updates. Another opportunity for unsettled weather may present itself by the middle to latter portion of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 7-11)

Fair weather is most likely from the early to mid portion of this period, with unsettled weather chances increasing later on. While the period as a whole is expected to see above normal temperatures, we may experience a chill-down before it’s over with colder air seeping southward from Canada.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 25-29)

If you had to be outside early on this Sunday morning you felt one of the colder mornings we’ve had this winter – and we haven’t had all that many. As of 7:00 a.m., temperature readings range from 11 to 18 across the majority of the WHW forecast area, with slightly “milder” readings around 20 to the middle 20s across Cape Cod. The cold was due to the combination of a clear sky and nearly calm wind overnight, under a ridge of high pressure – the perfect radiational cooling set-up. Today, you’ll really be able to notice the increased sun angle as the bright sun helps with a nice temperature recovery, and lighter winds than we had yesterday make it far more pleasant to be outside. It won’t be until late in the day that we start to see some clouds appearing in the western sky, and this signals the next disturbance to pass through. This particular one is not very strong and will just bring a few rain and snow showers to the region during the first 6 to 9 hours of Monday before it moves out and is replaced by dry, milder air. The warm-up will then continue into the middle of the coming week, but with increasingly unsettled weather as a stronger south to southwest air flow arrives and another low pressure trough approaches. The greatest chances for wet weather come Tuesday night then off and on through Wednesday. Any appreciable sunshine that can occur between bouts of wet weather Wednesday may aid the temperature in making a run at 60 for some areas, especially away from the South Coast where a south and southwest wind passes over cool ocean water. We still have to nail down the timing, but a strong cold front is due to pass through from west to east sometime Wednesday night or early Thursday, accompanied by a heavier band of showers and possible thunderstorms, and initiating a wind shift and sharp temperature drop for the final (extra) day of the month as dry weather returns.

TODAY: Lots of sun but some clouds appear later in the day from the west. Highs 36-43. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, then SW 5-15 MPH late day.

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Overnight rain and snow showers possible mainly along the South Coast with a few light snow showers possible to the north of there. Lows 24-31 in the evening, then a slow temperatures rise overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Eastern half of WHW area starts the day with clouds and passing snow/rain showers, then lots of sun with passing clouds. Highs 42-49. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35, mildest along the South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 47-54, coolest along the South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Highs 53-60 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 45-52. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Temperatures fall to 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 1-5)

The trend for the early days of March is for high pressure to be in control with dry weather and a moderating temperature trend for the few days and an increasing chance of unsettled weather toward the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 6-10)

Higher chances for unsettled weather early to mid period followed by a return to fair weather. No major temperature anomalies indicated at this time.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

We will have a dry final weekend of February. Some stubborn cloud cover will be around to start the day today but eventually the sun will take over as dry air wins out. Along with this will come a gusty wind making it feel colder than the already below normal temperatures. The wind comes courtesy of the airflow between low pressure that departed the region yesterday and high pressure that is approaching via the Great Lakes. This high pressure area will move over the region tonight, and while shutting down the wind it will also shove down the temperature under a clear sky with bright moonlight. The full moon actually occurred just after midnight today but still appears pretty full in the sky tonight. You can’t really notice it, but this is a mini moon aka the smallest looking full moon of the year because it is the full moon in which the moon is furthest away from the Earth. After a cold start on Sunday, with less wind and full sunshine well into the afternoon it will feel considerably less cold than today will despite only a modest rise in temperature over today. A quick moving disturbance will traverse the region late Sunday night through Monday morning, and may produce a few rain and snow showers near the South Coast with a quick snow flurry possible to the north. This system will lead milder air into the region as dry weather takes over again for the remainder of the day Monday, along with a gusty southwest breeze. The southwesterly air flow that is introduced on Monday will become more established Tuesday and Wednesday, transporting more mild air into the region, but the price we will pay for this will be episodes of wet weather Tuesday night and Wednesday. We may be able to salvage several hours of dry weather and at least partial sun on Wednesday while we are in this warmer southwesterly air flow. If that is the case, 60° is going to be within reach, except in coastal areas where a southwest wind comes off the water. You know what that means at this time of year and into the spring.

TODAY: Lots of clouds eventually give way to lots of sun. Highs 32-39 this morning, with a slow temperature drop midday on. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 11-18 though not as cold in a few urban areas and immediate coastal locations. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Sunny through mid afternoon, then becoming partly cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable under 10 MPH morning, W 5-15 MPH afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Overnight rain and snow showers possible mainly along the South Coast with a few light snow showers possible to the north of there. Lows 24-31 in the evening, then a slow temperatures rise overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Early clouds may produce a rain/snow shower in RI or southeastern MA, then sun and passing clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35, mildest along the South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 47-54, coolest along the South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain. Lows 40-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodic rain showers. Highs 53-60 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 29 – MARCH 4)

While there continues to be some uncertainty on timing, a strong cold front is expected to come through sometime on Leap Day including a band of rain showers and even possible thunderstorms. This boundary will initiate an abrupt wind shift and temperature drop as it goes by the region. I continue to lean toward a progressive scenario where the front moves well offshore quickly enough not to allow additional low pressure to come up and bring more unsettled weather. So the outlook for the first few days of March is for dry weather perhaps a ling chill to start and then a moderating trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 5-9)

This remains a low confidence forecast. Best chance of unsettled weather mid period.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Some wet weather will be with us today as a low pressure area passes by to the north and drags a slow-moving cold front across the region. A drying trend will begin this afternoon, progressing slowly from west to east, with an additional wave of low pressure on the front prolonging the rainfall across Cape Cod into this evening before it dries out there later tonight. The weekend will be dry and cold, with plenty of wind Saturday between departing low pressure and approaching high pressure, and more tranquil weather by Sunday as high pressure moves over the region. This high will then progress out of the region Sunday night as a low pressure trough approaches and swings through the region late Sunday evening through early morning Monday. This system will produce a few snow showers, with rain or snow showers closer to the South Coast where temperatures will be marginal (liquid vs. frozen). The remainder of Monday will be dry and less chilly than the previous 2 days. When we get to the end of the 5-day period, there’s a little uncertainty on timing, but I’m expecting clouds to advance on Tuesday ahead of a larger scale trough, and wet weather may be here before Tuesday has concluded, though that timing may need to be adjusted in future forecasts.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of light fog this morning. Rain mainly north and west of Boston to start, progressing from I-95 eastward while areas to the west dry out later. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lingering rain over Cape Cod during the evening. Watch for areas of black ice where the ground doesn’t dry out quickly enough. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 32-39 in the morning, with a slow temperature drop midday on. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts likely.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 11-18 though not as cold in a few urban areas and immediate coastal locations. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Sunny through early afternoon, then becoming variably cloudy. Highs 35-42. Wind variable under 10 MPH morning, W 5-15 MPH afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers probable overnight, except rain or snow showers South Coast. Lows 24-31 in the evening, with a slow temperatures rise overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Early clouds may produce a rain/snow shower in RI or southeastern MA, then sun and passing clouds. Highs 41-48. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain late-day. Highs 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 3)

There’s some uncertainty on the timing of frontal boundaries, but leaning toward a warm front having passed by and a cold front still to the west allowing a mainly fair but windy and mild February 28, and a strong cold front passing by on Leap Day with rain showers and gusty, shifting winds. Details of this will be worked out in future forecast updates. Also, previously questioned whether or not additional low pressure might impact the region with a rain/snow threat to start March, but as of today’s update I am leaning toward a chilly but drier solution for the first few days of the month. Again this is not high confidence and still subject to change.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 4-8)

Low confidence outlook is for a dry start to the period, then looking at a potential longer duration unsettled weather event mid to late period.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

High pressure’s grip on our region will loosen today. We start out with a calm and frosty morning for many, but some clouds have continued to blanket some coastal areas of MA from Cape Ann to the South Shore, and where the clouds were, radiational cooling was limited by the stratus blanket. Another cloud area expanded out of the mountains of western New England into north central MA and southwestern NH in the last couple of dark hours, slowing the temperature fall in those areas as well. During the day today as high pressure continues to drift further away from the region, and a low pressure trough approaches from the west, we can see additional areas of clouds but also areas of sunshine, and it will become milder than the last few days. A warm front will cross the region later tonight with a swath of precipitation, mainly light rain, but this may begin as a mix or a period of wet snow in some higher elevations of north central MA to southwestern NH, but with inconsequential accumulation of only brief coatings possible on unpaved surfaces before anything that falls melts away. Wet weather will continue at times through midday across the area Friday as a cold front follows the warm front and a weak wave of low pressure ripples along it. I am still of the meteorological opinion that this front will pull offshore before the day is over and the low pressure wave will exit to the northeast, pulling in enough dry air for at least breaking clouds / partial clearing, especially from the I-95 belt west, so that the very end of the day Friday may see brighter sky, even a nice sunset potentially. Clouds linger longer into Friday night over Cape Cod as the front ambles further out to sea. Our weekend looks like a dry and cold one. A sun/cloud mix can be expected Saturday – a few passing fair weather clouds along with some patchy mid level clouds from a minor disturbance passing by. This will also be a breezy/windy day making it feel colder than it is. High pressure builds over the region Saturday night and Sunday. The set-up allows for radiational cooling Saturday night with quite a cold start to Sunday, but brighter, uninterrupted sun and less wind allowing it to feel less harsh during the day. A weak trough will whistle through the region Monday morning (based on current expected timing). This feature may produce a quick passing snow shower, otherwise should lead to a generally dry day with seasonable temperatures.

TODAY: Areas of clouds but still plenty of sunshine for most of the region. Highs 40-47. Wind S increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding over. Late evening / overnight periods of rain but likely beginning as snow north central MA and southern NH. Lows 32-39. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with occasional rain showers through early afternoon. Additional rain showers possible RI / southeastern MA into late afternoon. Breaking clouds possible especially west of I-95 late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 11-18 though not as cold in a few urban areas and immediate coastal locations. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds return overnight with a passing snow shower possible. Lows 23-30. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. An early morning snow shower possible. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 2)

A southwesterly air flow becomes established into the middle of next week with a couple rounds of wet weather (timing TBD), culminating in a stronger cold frontal passage sometime on Leap Day (February 29). Uncertainty whether or not we go right to dry, colder weather March 1-2 or if a wave of low pressure comes up along the offshore frontal boundary to bring a precipitation threat.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 3-7)

Additional unsettled weather potential mid to late period which can include a frozen precipitation threat as temperatures may end up somewhat colder than modeled by medium range guidance. This is not a high confidence outlook however.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

Before we go into the outlook for the next 5 days, let’s take a look at some current weather that’s quite interesting. As you know, the forecast for overnight was for generally calm conditions under a clear sky, setting up radiational cooling. This was optimized for some places in southeastern MA, such as Falmouth, Taunton, and Martha’s Vineyard. The airport MVY sits in the middle of the island in a relative low spot. They were already as 15 degrees at 1 a.m. and have since dropped further to 12, with a few point of just 9, as the wind has continued to stay calm there. Meanwhile, just across the water at Nantucket, with a light wind blowing, they are a dozen + 1 warmer at 25. Up to Boston, as of 6 a.m. they sit at 26 with a northerly breeze passing over relatively warmer ocean water before it reaches the temperature sensor. As a result, their dew point is also quite a bit higher at 17, compared to Martha’s Vineyard’s single digit dp. As a segue to the outlook, I’ll mention that the same ocean water will play a role in keeping coastal areas cooler than inland areas as we move through the day today. High pressure nudging its way toward southeastern Canada will deliver a light easterly air flow to the region, and as the sun warms the land more efficiently, that easterly flow will keep the coastal areas cooler, thanks to ocean water temperatures now near to a little below 40 degrees. We’re already seeing some low clouds from the ocean start to move into Cape Cod and other eastern coastal areas, and these will be around at times along the coastal plain during the day today while inland areas see more sunshine. Additionally, some high, thin clouds are fanning up from the south. These are from a large ocean storm that, while it looks a bit threatening on the weather map, will stay offshore to our east and southeast before moving out to sea. Our next round of unsettled weather is going to come from the west, in the form of a trough of low pressure aloft and two surface lows. The first will travel to our northwest Thursday night and early Friday, dragging a warm front through the region. This front will send a batch of precipitation through the region late Thursday night and early Friday – mainly in the form of rain though some brief wet snow may occur in higher elevations from north central MA through southwestern NH as the air should be just cold enough to support it. A second low pressure wave will move up an approaching cold front during the day Friday to produce a couple rounds of rain showers. Depending on the speed of this wave, we may or may not start to see a clearing process, at least to the west, before the day is over. Areas west of I-95 would stand the greatest chance of being post-rain and seeing breaking clouds before nightfall. But in general, plan on an unsettled day Friday. This will be a fairly light event, with precipitation amounts of generally under 0.50 inch expected. The weekend looks like a dry one. Saturday will feature a gusty breeze and will by the colder of the 2 days as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes and drags colder air in from Canada between itself and departing low pressure. High pressure moves over the region Saturday night into Sunday. This sets up a cold Saturday night with another clear sky / light wind combination. Sunday will feature plenty of sun and a modest warm-up after a cold start.

TODAY: Intervals of clouds favoring the eastern coastal plain. More sunshine elsewhere but filtered at times by some high cloudiness. Highs 36-43, coolest in coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers, may begin as mix/snow showers some interior higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with occasional rain showers through mid afternoon. Breaking clouds possible especially west of I-95 late-day. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing overnight.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 1)

A quick-moving trough may bring a few snow showers to the region February 26. A southwesterly flow brings a milder trend but also the chance of a couple rounds of rain showers from later February 27 through early February 29 before a wind shift to west or northwest brings dry, colder weather for late period. Details of low pressure / frontal timing will need to be fine-tuned.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 2-6)

The first half of the period is most likely to feature dry weather, with the latter half of the period more likely to feature unsettled weather. Variable temperatures, typical for this time of year, but should average somewhat above normal for the period overall.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

We’re right on the eastern edge of the northerly air flow ahead of high pressure, and a little surface boundary will push a band of clouds across Cape Cod early this morning, but no precipitation will fall from these. The high pressure area will build over our region today and remain in place tonight. We have a cold start to the day after an overnight of clear sky and light wind, and this will repeat again tonight. In between, we can expected a sunny, chilly daytime, and today will be one of those days you really start to notice the increased sun angle. High pressure retreats into southeastern Canada and the adjacent waters on Wednesday. At the same time, a large ocean storm will wind up well southeast of New England. This set-up will allow some high clouds from the storm to fan into our region, dimming the sun somewhat at times as we move through the day. Those clouds will thicken up Wednesday night into Thursday as that storm, while still pretty far offshore, makes a close enough pass to do this. Some guidance has the western edge of the storm’s rain shield touching Outer Cape Cod, and while I cannot rule this out, I feel it will remain offshore. Meanwhile, a trough approaches from the west Thursday with high and mid level clouds also increasing from that feature as it moves closer. While the offshore storm starts to move away, the trough from the west will swing through the region Thursday night and Friday. This will send one low center to our northwest, with its trailing frontal system bringing rain showers – that may start as mix/snow in higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. A wave of low pressure on the frontal boundary will prolong the wet weather through midday Friday before it starts to pull away. Dry weather arrives later Friday and continues through Saturday as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes, delivering a shot of colder air.

TODAY: Sunny except a brief period of passing clouds Cape Cod early. Highs 31-38. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24 except colder some interior low spots. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers, may begin as mix/snow showers some interior higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain likely through midday, then some late-day clearing. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 25-29)

A quick-moving trough may bring a few snow showers to the region later February 25 or early February 26 based on current system timing. Watching for additional unsettled weather from a couple low pressure systems during the last few days of the month, but it’s too early to detail this.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 1-5)

The first 5 days of March present opportunities for unsettled weather and changing temperatures, typical for what you’d expect for the time of year. Far too soon for any detailing of system timing, etc.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 19-23)

Passing clouds this morning are associated with a cold front moving through. There is no precipitation associated with this front, so today will be dry, but with the breeze getting active behind the front, with a northwesterly air flow between low pressure to our northeast and high pressure building into the region from the west. The high center will cross the region Tuesday and Tuesday night, with tranquil weather – dry and bright on Tuesday, and quite cold Tuesday night due to the clear sky / calm wind / low dew point combination. High pressure slides offshore Wednesday with continued fair weather, but slightly milder with a few more clouds appearing. Clouds will increase Thursday ahead of an approaching trough and frontal system, which will cross the region Thursday night and early Friday with rain showers and the potential for some mix/snow over interior higher elevations at least to start the event. Rainfall may be prolonged briefly during Friday as a low pressure wave develops and moves along the frontal boundary, but I think this should happen quickly enough so that we start to clear out before Friday ends.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds with the majority of clouds before midday. Highs 32-39. Wind NW increasing to 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 15-22. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing overnight.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24 except colder some interior low spots. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain showers, may begin as mix/snow showers some interior higher elevations. Lows 32-39. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain likely through midday, then some late-day clearing. Highs 40-47. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 24-28)

A minor system passing through during the February 24-25 weekend may bring a few snow showers along with seasonably colder air. Fair weather expected on February 26 before an unsettled weather potential later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 29 – MARCH 4)

A fair, chill finish to February, based on current timing. No strong signals for major storminess the first few days of March but there will be an opportunity for some unsettled weather and temperature swings.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 18-22)

Today through tonight low pressure takes a track eastward while passing to our north. Its warm front sends a batch of high / mid level clouds through this morning. Some of you may have seen a nice sunrise if you were up early for it, but now we’ll get some limiting of the sun for a few hours this morning as that front comes by, otherwise uneventfully. While technically we’ll be in the “warm sector” of this passing low, it’s not going to be a warm day. Yes you may notice now as we head through mid February that an increasing sun angle makes the sun feel warmer, but temperatures today still run near to a little below normal, made to feel colder still by a gusty wind. Previously, I spoke of the chance of passing snow showers in northern portions of the WHW forecast area today, but during the day these are not very likely. If we are to see any, it would be with the approach and passage of the low’s cold front this evening / tonight as the system moves down the St. Lawrence Valley into southeastern Canada. Moisture is less available than it was for the trough that produced yesterday’s snow showers/squalls, so I’m not expecting much, just a few spotty light snow showers at most. Monday, behind the front and ahead of approaching high pressure, we will experience sun and passing clouds, an active breeze, and dry weather. High pressure builds overhead Tuesday and early Wednesday with lots of sun and a seasonably chilly day Tuesday, and a cold night following that with a clear sky / calm wind combination. During Wednesday as the high center slips off to the east, and we start a warming process, we’ll see some cloudiness return to limit the sun, a little more wind, but a milder afternoon after that cold start. This milder regime will continue Thursday as we start to see more cloudiness still ahead of an approaching low pressure area and frontal system, which can bring precipitation to us by Thursday evening or night. A larger storm at that time will be located well offshore, not close enough to impact the region.

TODAY: Intervals of clouds and sun with the most limited sun this morning and again later in the day and the most sun during the midday hours. Highs 30-37. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH except 20-30 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH along the South Coast.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A brief snow shower may occur southern NH / northern MA. Lows 22-29. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Mix/rain potential by evening or night. Highs 40-47. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 23-27)

Low pressure brings unsettled weather to start the period, and another smaller system may impact the region with a period of precipitation sometime over the February 24-25 weekend, with yet another system potentially approaching the region at the end of the period. None of these look like “big events” at this time but will monitor of course as guidance out that far is wishy-washy, like Charlie Brown. 😉

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 28 – MARCH 3)

Pattern may support a couple unsettled weather systems or even one more prolonged period of unsettled weather during this time frame. Continued lower than average confidence even for this time period’s typical uncertainty. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 17-21)

It’s a 3-day weekend for many, and it will be cold and generally on the quiet side, despite 2 separate low pressure areas having some impact on the region. The first slides by to our south today but some of its snowfall gets up into southern New England – a light event in general with generally 1 to 2 inches for the South Coast and dustings/coatings northward toward I-90, and generally nothing more than flakes in the air from that system north of there. However as this starts to pull away, at unstable atmosphere from a low pressure trough swinging through from the west can trigger snow showers, especially north of I-90, and these can put down scattered coatings of snow during this afternoon to very early evening before they move away. Sunday, another low pressure area will move rapidly eastward, passing across northern New England. This may also cause a few snow showers during Sunday afternoon, most of which would occur north of I-90 again. Other than localized dustings which get blown around by a gusty wind, I’m not expecting much of any accumulation from Sunday’s snow showers. Presidents Day will feature more sunshine but still breezy conditions as high pressure approaches from the west. This high will move over the region on Tuesday which will be a bright and tranquil winter day. It then shifts eastward on Wednesday, which will also feature fair weather but with milder air after a cold start.

TODAY: Overcast through early afternoon with periods of snow mainly near and south of I-90 with most accumulation of 1 or 2 inches along the South Coast and a slight chance of up to 3 inches over Martha’s Vineyard or Nantucket. Breaking/thinning clouds mainly to the north and west later, but additional developing instability clouds mainly north of I-90 with scattered snow showers during the afternoon – some producing minor accumulations. Highs 30-37. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in the evening. Wind chill below 10 in the evening.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 17-24. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-45. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 22-26)

One storm offshore should keep its precipitation over the ocean while a weaker system from the west brings clouds and a light precipitation chance on February 22. One or two more systems can bring rain/mix/snow (details TBD) to the region during the February 24-26 window. Temperatures start out somewhat above normal then trend slightly colder.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 27 – MARCH 2)

Pattern may support a couple unsettled weather systems or even one more prolonged period of unsettled weather during this time frame. Low confidence at this point. Temperatures near to slightly above normal for the period.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 16-20)

We finally have a pattern that brings the feel of winter for a string of days. Last night’s minor snowfall, while quick-hitting and not dropping much accumulation (generally a coating to just over 1 inch), leaves behind some icy areas where a partial melt and then re-freeze took place. Be aware of that if going outside today. In addition, a couple plumes of snow showers are about the region (one in southwestern and south central NH and another in central MA as of sunrise). These will dawdle about the region for a little while and will lower visibility and cause some additional minor snowfall accumulation where they are, but they should dissipate later on. Otherwise, look for a mainly dry but windy and cold day for the region in the wake of departing low pressure. Wind slackens later today and settles down tonight as a sliver of high pressure moves across the region.

The weather during the upcoming 3-day weekend will be governed by a trio of weather systems. Saturday, low pressure races eastward and tracks just south of New England, but far enough south that a shield of snow accompanying it only dusts areas south of I-90 with a brief period of light snow, while no more than a few flakes visit areas to the north. However, areas that largely miss out on the synoptic snow from the passing low to the south do stand the chance of seeing a passing snow shower from an upper level trough late in the day Saturday. Another low pressure area tracks quickly eastward across northern New England on Sunday, and with cold air in place this can bring a few snow showers to areas mainly north of I-90. The wind picks back up again on Sunday with the passage of that system, but not to the levels we will see during today. Finally, high pressure moves into the region for the Monday holiday with dry, more tranquil, but still chilly weather, which will also last through Tuesday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Snow showers possible especially west of I-495 early to mid morning with briefly low visibility and small accumulation possible. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, gusts as high as 35-45 MPH, strongest through early afternoon with a gradual diminishment thereafter.

TONIGHT: A few passing low clouds evening departing to the east. Increasing high clouds overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Overcast through mid afternoon – thickest to the south of I-90 where a period of light snow can result in a minor accumulation, and thinner to the north where the sun may be seen through it but a few snowflakes can fall. A clearing trend begins toward the end of the day. Highs 30-37. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 13-20. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in the evening. Wind chill below 10 in the evening.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 15-22. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 21-25)

Disturbances around February 22 and 24 bring what look like fairly minor precipitation threat, otherwise a mostly dry weather pattern is anticipated. Temperatures start out somewhat above normal then trend slightly colder.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 26 – MARCH 1)

One or two additional unsettled weather threats take place this period, but far too soon to try to determine the magnitude and details of any threats. Temperatures near to slightly above normal for the period but with day-to-day variability.

DAYS 1-5 (FEBRUARY 15-19)

Two low pressure systems will impact our region during the next 5 days. The first one approaches later today and passes through tonight. It’s a small, fast-moving one but has a decent slug of moisture with it. The low pressure area is destined to pass just to our north, but its warm front will generate a batch of accumulating snow this evening. It will be a short-lived event, not dropping too much snow, but enough to cause slippery travel on untreated surfaces. Once the initial band goes by, a few additional snow showers can occur until a cold front drops through the region early on Friday morning. The balance of Friday will be dry but quite windy and on the cold side. The cold air will keep hold of the region as we get into the holiday weekend. Another small and fast-moving low pressure area will move through the region Saturday. Currently the expectation is that the low center will pass just to our south, with a period of two of mostly light snowfall expected. The snow coverage and any accumulation from this system will come into focus over the next couple days. Another disturbance may bring a snow shower on Sunday, reinforcing the cold air through Monday, when dry weather is expected.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with snow except some mix/rain South Coast. Snow accumulation generally 1/2 to 2 inches – a few under 1/2 inch amounts possible mainly South Coast, and a few over 2 inch amounts possible mainly north of Route 2. Lows 26-33. Wind shifting to S 5-15 MPH then back to W.

FRIDAY: Any early snow showers ending with a sun/cloud mix. Highs 33-40. Wind W increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in the evening, diminishing overnight.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light snow likely. Highs 28-35. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with any light snow ending in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 13-20. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing snow shower possible. Highs 30-37. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 12-19. Wind NW 10-20 MPH. Wind chill below 10.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (FEBRUARY 20-24)

Snow/rain shower chance about February 22 and snow/mix/rain chance around February 24. Temperatures quite variable during this period with both above normal and below normal days – details worked out later.

DAYS 11-15 (FEBRUARY 25-29)

One or two additional unsettled weather threats during the last several days of February. Temperatures near to slightly above normal for the period but with day-to-day variability.