DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 20-24)

Into late August we go with some nice weather finally outweighing unsettled weather, at least for a stretch of days, and a continuation of the lack of heat with a cool northwesterly air flow being dominant overall. However, we do start the period with a 2-day warm-up today and Monday. Yesterday being as cool as it was with a lot of clouds, it won’t be hard to warm up today with much more sun and a land breeze. Humidity stays low. That humidity will start to increase tonight into Monday ahead of an approaching cold front, which will bring periods of clouds to the region and a few passing showers possible especially late Monday afternoon and evening. The front keeps on moving through, and we see a dry, cooler air mass for Tuesday through midweek, though clouds may be moving in by later Thursday in response to the next approaching low pressure trough.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloud / sun intervals. A late-day shower possible. Highs 80-87. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 72-79. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lower elevation fog patches possible. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun gives way to clouds. Highs 74-81. Dew point 50s. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 25-29)

A frontal boundary and low pressure system moving through the region brings unsettled weather with showers and possible thunderstorms August 25. I’m optimistic for a drier air mass from Canada to arrive for the August 26-27 weekend, but there’s a little uncertainty on how quickly this may take place. Fair weather should prevail later in the period with high pressure in control.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3)

A general northwest flow is expected between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure in central central US. This pattern is not hot and not too wet, but a couple episodes of unsettled weather likely occur with passing disturbances.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 19-23)

After yet another active weather day yesterday which included high humidity, showers and thunderstorms, and a handful of tornadoes in southern New England, it’s time to take a deep breath and a break, and mother nature will provide that opportunity this weekend, and into next week, with much less action to talk about and track. We do have an upper level low pressure area situation just to our north that will have an impact on the weather today, however, but not in a major way. It’s part of a pattern that’s delivering a cooler, much drier air mass – a hint of early autumn especially if you were up early. Around the upper low are lots of high and mid level clouds, some of those trying to wheel into our region this morning, but also fighting dry air which limits the extent to which they can cover the sky. But the solar heating, combined with the cold pool of air aloft, will ignite diurnal cumulus / stratocumulus cloud development later this morning into this afternoon which can become quite extensive, limiting the sun that helped them develop. This, along with a cool breeze and low dew points, will make today feel unlike many of the muggy days we’ve experienced this summer – finally a chance to dry out! Sunday’s weather will be quite nice, still with low dew points for comfort, but warmer by 5 to 10 degrees over today’s high temps, with much more abundant sun as the upper low moves away and a weak high pressure ridge follows it. High pressure slips offshore Monday and a cold front approaches from southeastern Canada. This will be our one very warm and slightly humid day of the 5-day period. While high temps jump well into the 80s the dew point climbs back into the 60s, so you’ll feel that bit of mugginess back. The cold front will cross the area from northwest to southeast during the evening and may trigger a shower or possibly a thunderstorm, but this is not looking like a widespread heavy rainfall event – just a quick hit for a few areas, then gone. A mild, dry air mass overspreads the region after that with the return of fair weather Tuesday and Wednesday.

TODAY: Sunniest eastern MA, RI, and eastern CT with clouds moving in at times elsewhere through mid morning, then lots of clouds popping up late morning into afternoon with limited sun, especially away from the coast. Highs 71-78. Dew point falling to near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57 except 58-65 urban centers. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-87. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 72-79. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Dew point lower 50s. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-81. Dew point 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)

Northwesterly air flow between high pressure to the west and low pressure in eastern Canada should be the prevalent pattern during this period. Later August 24 into August 25 is the most likely unsettled period based on the timing of the next disturbance moving through the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

Overall similar pattern expected, maybe one or two fairly brief episodes of unsettled weather in an overall drier pattern with near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 18-22)

Low pressure wrapping up and tracking north of our region today will drag, in quick succession, a warm front, a trough, and a cold front through. Foggy areas and patches of drizzle will accompany the warm front, a band of widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms accompany the trough, which will move through from west southwest to east northeast this morning, and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can accompany the cold front, which will move through from west to east during the early to mid afternoon hours. The greatest chance of severe weather is damaging wind gusts with thunderstorms from the trough, and there is only a slight chance of a damaging wind gust and some hail in any isolated storms with the cold front. It all clears out by evening when a cooler, dry air mass overspreads the region. Our weekend will be a generally nice one, but with a hint of autumn in the air Saturday with very low dew points, below normal temperatures, and a sky that will become filled with lots of diurnal clouds, a result of solar heating and colder air aloft. These dissipate / clear out at night, and help to set up a sunnier Sunday with less wind, warmer air, but still comfortably low humidity. So the pick of the weekend is definitely Sunday for the feel of the season we’re actually in. Monday, we briefly turn warmer and more humid ahead of a Canadian cold front, which may bring an evening shower or thunderstorm, followed by a drier, cooler Tuesday, a result of a northwest flow pattern between Middle USA high pressure ridging and eastern Canadian troughing.

TODAY: Overcast start with areas of fog and drizzle, then widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms move through during the morning hours, with breaks of sun but still a passing shower or thunderstorm possible during early through mid afternoon before increasing sun and passing clouds later on. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s, falling to 50s from west to east late in the day. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W from west to east, higher gusts possible. Isolated strong to damaging wind gusts possible with any thunderstorms.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling to 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start, then lots of clouds. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 40s. Wind W 10-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-57. Dew point 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 80-87. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 72-79. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 23-27)

Northwesterly air flow between high pressure to the west and low pressure in eastern Canada should be the prevalent pattern during this period. Later August 24 into August 25 is the most likely unsettled period based on the timing of the next disturbance moving through the region.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

Overall similar pattern expected, maybe one or two fairly brief episodes of unsettled weather in an overall drier pattern with near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)

A frontal boundary continues to hang just to our south, with our region on the cool side. But being on the cool side of this boundary also comes with relatively high humidity, not dry air, so clouds are quite dominant and will continue to be today, but with a lack of any rain / drizzle chances, so just dry weather, mild, humid, but not that much sun. That’s the Thursday story. Low pressure passing to our northwest and north tonight into Friday will finally drag the frontal boundary north as a warm front with an increased chance of showers tonight into Friday before a cold front sweeps eastward across the region. When this happens, add the chance of thunderstorms too. Some downpours are likely, but I’m not expecting widespread heavy rain coverage, and where it does occur it will tend to be brief, limiting flooding. The cold front sweeps offshore by late Friday as we see the shower/storm threat drop off and end from west to east during Friday afternoon to early evening. Behind this front comes a refreshing dry air mass from Canada. Saturday’s weather will feature low humidity, a gusty breeze, and a sun/cloud mix, with dry weather as any showers triggered by cool air aloft will occur in the mountains to our north. A more gentle westerly breeze is expected Sunday with less diurnal clouds, more sun, slightly warmer air, and a small and slow up-tick in humidity levels, but still fairly comfortable. Monday, a cold front is expected to drop southeastward out of Canada in response to a trough in eastern Canada, introducing a new Canadian air mass at some point during the day. This is part of a larger scale pattern that will be keeping a hot ridge of high pressure to our west, preventing heat here.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60s. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH, shifting to S 5-15 MPH in southern areas by later in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers evening. Scattered showers overnight, a few possibly heavy with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms , diminishing from west to east during the afternoon hours. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W from west to east.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Dew point falling below 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Dew point 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 57-64. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-84. Dew point briefly 60+ then dropping into 50s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)

General pattern should feature a northwesterly upper level air flow with a ridge of high pressure in the central US and a trough of low pressure from eastern Canada to northern New England. This pattern keeps major heat out, with near to below normal temperatures, but leaves the door open for passing disturbances and fronts with shower and thunderstorm chances a couple times.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)

The final days of August look like they’ll feature a similar pattern with temperatures near to below normal as cool air is reinforced behind brief shower chances.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)

This set-up mimics spring in some ways, with a frontal boundary stuck just to our south, and us on the cool side. Of course, it being August, it’s a “warm” cool and the humidity is more noticeable as a result. But once again, it’s not a combo of heat and humidity, which has been lacking this summer. Through August 15, Boston’s Logan Airport has recorded only 4 days of 90 degrees or higher, with the highest of the summer 91 so far. Inland, it’s a slightly different story, where there have been a few more 90+ days, but still not that many, and some of the seasonal highs are in the middle 90s, but these bouts have been sparse and brief. And there are no 90 degree days in sight right now either, at least through this 5-day period to start with. Today we remain locked on the cool side of the boundary with lots of clouds and a light onshore breeze. A disturbance passing by will trigger some showers mostly south of I-90 this morning, maybe an embedded thunderstorm close to Cape Cod. Slight drying this afternoon allows for breaks of sun, and maybe just enough solar heating to trigger a pop up shower over the hilly terrain of southwestern NH and/or central MA, but for the most part, most of the region will see a rain-free day with below normal temperatures and not much wind. Tonight, the clouds want to break, but enough low level moisture exists for an increase in stratus clouds and areas of fog to develop, so it could be variable enough that you could be driving along and see stars through the clouds and 1 mile later be enshrouded by a fog bank. An increasing southerly air flow on Thursday will help break up any fog and the lowest clouds, but there will still be a fair amount of clouds due to the high humidity at lower levels. At the same time, other clouds from an approaching trough will be moving in from the south and west, so any sun we do see on Thursday will be rather limited. An initial disturbance may incite a swath of showers in the South Coast / Cape Cod region during the afternoon before a ribbon of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms moves into the region from west to east overnight into Friday. This will occur as the front that has been sitting to our south finally lifts through as a warm front. If there is a break with more sun between that area and one more with an approaching cold front Friday, one more broken to possibly solid line of showers and storms on Friday late morning to early afternoon can be more potent. I still think the frontal timing and speed is fast enough that we see a drying trend from west to east during the later hours of Friday, and most especially Friday evening and night. After this mess of clouds, humidity, and showers exits, we set up for a weekend of fair weather and low humidity. Saturday will be the breezier of the 2 days with a fresh west to northwest breeze and passing fair weather clouds, while Sunday likely features lighter wind and more sun.

TODAY: Clouds dominate. Sun breaks rare but possible. Shower chance is highest south of I-90 with a possible t-storm for Cape Cod until late morning. Isolated showers southwestern NH / central MA later on. Patchy drizzle possible. Highs 75-82. Dew point in 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH, shifting to SE later.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SE to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. Shower chance highest in the afternoon over southern RI and southeastern MA. Late-day showers may reach eastern CT and central MA to southwestern NH. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising toward 70. Wind SE to S increasing to 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially near the South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms , diminishing from west to east midday through afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind S shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Dew point falling below 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Dew point 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)

General pattern should feature a northwesterly upper level air flow with a ridge of high pressure in the central US and a trough of low pressure from eastern Canada to northern New England. This pattern keeps major heat out, but leaves the door open for passing disturbances and shower/storm chances, but not an overly wet set-up.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)

No big changes to the 6-10 day pattern expected during this period either. Temperatures near normal but somewhat variable. Brief shower chances.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 15-19)

A frontal boundary, trying to be a warm front, will instead become a quasi-stationary front as it makes a feeble attempt to move northward into our region today. It gets to about Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, Block Island and maybe touches a portion of the South Coast, otherwise stays to the south and even moves a bit further south by evening as an initial wave of low pressure goes by from west to east. A swath of widespread showers and some embedded downpours moved into the region overnight and will gradually taper off and exit during the course of this morning. Heavier thunderstorms have been located to the south and will pass mostly off shore, only clipping Nantucket for a while from early to mid morning. A general east to northeast flow will keep it on the cooler side, though it will be quite humid, and with temp / dew point readings nearly the same we’ll see areas of fog and drizzle around even as showers taper off and exit, under a sky that remains generally overcast throughout the afternoon into this evening. Another disturbance will kick off showers and a few heavier downpours and possible thunderstorms especially near the South Coast again tonight, lingering as long as the hours around dawn on Wednesday. Elsewhere, just spotty drizzle and possible sprinkles of very light rain occur. During the day Wednesday, the final disturbance exits, and there will be a slow arrival of drier air, but with the air flow still from the northeast for a good part of the day, the clearing process may be a sluggish one, so I’m only expecting partial sun as the shower chance becomes confined mainly to the higher terrain of southwestern NH and north central MA with a help of a bit more solar heating there. Any of these that pop up are gone by evening and we have a fairly tranquil night with broken to scattered clouds but patchy ground fog forming under light wind conditions and a small temp / dew point spread. On Thursday, our wind flow will shift to southerly ahead of the next approaching trough, and a cloud / sun mix will give way to more clouds eventually, along with increasing shower opportunities due to a combination of an approaching trough from the west and more humid southerly air flow. This is most prominent Thursday night into part of Friday, until a cold front sweeps through from west to east during the day. Any sun on Friday can help enhance the shower activity with some thunder possible as well. Right now I don’t think we’ll see any severe storms. Timing of the front should allow a drying process to begin during the afternoon, first to the west (southwestern NH and central MA), lastly in southeastern areas (Cape Cod). Expect fair weather Saturday with lower dew point air, but still seasonably warm. Pop up showers in response to a trough of low pressure across northern New England should remain north of the WHW forecast area, so overall it looks like a nice beginning to the weekend at this point.

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers until mid morning, tapering to sprinkles and patchy drizzle with areas of fog late morning on. Highs 67-74. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts near the coast.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Isolated to scattered showers, except a couple periods of more widespread showers / downpours and possible thunder near the South Coast. Lows 63-70. Dew point in 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds break for sun at times. Early morning showers possible Cape Cod / Islands. An isolated shower may pop up southwestern NH and north central MA midday or afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point falling slowly toward 60. Wind NE to briefly N up to 10 MPH then variable.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds, with clouds becoming dominant later. Passing rain showers possible by late-day / evening. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind S increasing to 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible late.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms, especially overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms , diminishing from west to east midday through afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind S shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 78-85. Dew point below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 20-24)

Fair weather holds for August 20. The August 21-24 time frame will find the region in a minor battle between Canadian dry air and a northwest flow and attempted pushes of warmer, more humid air in from the southwest. This may result in a couple of unsettled episodes interspersed with fair weather, and temperatures that are variable, but not that far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 25-29)

Trends remain for a more persistent west and northwest flow than previously indicated which may continue to limit or even eliminate a hot weather threat and keep it on the drier side with just brief shower chances.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 14-18)

A small area of high pressure brings drier air in today, but a lot of mid level moisture in place will mean the sky won’t be sunny all day. We’ll have a fair amount of mid level cloudiness to deal with, but with breaks and thin spots to allow sun at times, especially north of I-90, before it thickens up again by day’s end. Low pressure approaching from the west is going to try to pull a warm front through the region tonight and Tuesday, but as trends have been south on this, and it still looks that way, the front may never get north of the I-90 belt, if it even makes it that far, before being pushed back to the south. An initial thrust of moisture will bring fairly widespread showers with some embedded downpours and possible thunder overnight into Tuesday morning, basically the first 8 to 10 hours of Tuesday, before a break. If the frontal boundary makes it onto the SNE landmass, areas along and south of it stand the chance of some heavier showers/storms with possible severe weather later Tuesday as a wave of low pressure moves by. A boundary position further south would mitigate the severe weather chance and just mean showers for a while. Either way, this frontal boundary will then pull adequately southeastward to allow drying and the return of fair weather for Wednesday. A cool pool above will ignite diurnal clouds but I still feel any shower threat will remain north of our region. Current timing suggests that the next trough and frontal system arrives after a fair weather daytime Thursday, and swings through quickly enough that a shower and limited thunderstorm threat takes place for a 12 to 15 hour period from about midnight Thursday night / Friday morning to mid afternoon Friday. The earlier timing would lessen the chance of stronger storms Friday due to lack of adequate solar heating, but if this system is a couple to a few hours slower, that chance would go up, and last longer. This will be something to monitor as we move through the week. Something we won’t be needing to monitor this week: hot weather. Temperatures so far this month are running generally 1 to 3 F below normal, and this lack-of-heat portion of the pattern will continue.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / partial sun. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms overnight. Areas of fog overnight, especially near the coast. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Showers and embedded thunderstorms possible in eastern areas early, then favoring areas south of I-90 later in the day. Areas of fog, especially in the morning. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60s. Wind SE-E up to 10 MPH except variable to S 5-15 MPH near the South Coast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, favoring the South Coast region, then clearing. Patchy ground fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point under 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to near 50. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms, especially overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms until mid afternoon. Highs 78-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 19-23)

A low pressure trough will sit to the north of the region with a west northwest air flow out of Canada bringing dry weather and near seasonable temperatures for the August 19-20 weekend. The August 21-23 period will feature a little more of a battle between this drier northwesterly flow and an attempt by warmer, more humid air to push back in from the southwest, which can bring some unsettled weather if the boundary is nearby. Favoring a drier scenario over wetter as the northwest flow should win out.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 24-28)

Trends are for a more persistent west and northwest flow than previously indicated which may continue to limit or even eliminate a hot weather threat and keep it on the drier side with just brief shower chances.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 13-17)

A cold front will slide off the coast by midday today. This front will produce additional showers and possibly a few thunderstorms east of I-95 in general, mainly southeastern MA. Behind this front, drier air will work in, but there’s just enough instability left behind the front that the “mostly fair” weather cumulus clouds that pop up can grow adequately to produce a few showers here and there as the afternoon goes on, even as late as sunset. However, the coverage of that activity will be very low – not enough to worry about scrapping outdoor plans, but just enough to keep an eye on the radar “just in case”. Tonight, cooler, dry air moves in and you’ll notice it if you’re outside or have the windows open. While clouds thwarted many folks’ view of the peak night of Perseid meteors late last night / early this morning, tonight, while there will be a lower meteor count, viewing conditions will improve if you want to catch the end stage of the show. Again, best time to see them is after midnight, facing N & NE, away from light pollution. Monday will be a nice mid August day with a sun/cloud mix and low humidity. We’ll have diurnal cumulus clouds pop up in response to solar heating and cool air aloft, and also some higher clouds will start to move in during the afternoon ahead of the next approaching low pressure area. As the small high pressure area that gives us our nice Monday moves away, low pressure will head for northern New England via the Great Lakes, and its warm front will bring heavier clouds and a round of showers late Monday night / early Tuesday. Some heavier thunderstorms may occur toward the South Coast with this where it will be more unstable with more moisture available. Tuesday during the day we should spend some time in the warm sector behind a warm front and ahead of a cold front, but it looks like clouds will be dominant so I’m not expecting full destabilization of the atmosphere enough to cook up big thunderstorms. It looks like a more general shower set-up with embedded heavier downpours and storms possible. It’s also possible that the frontal boundary doesn’t make all that much progress northward and a wave of low pressure forming along it then pulls it back to the south. This set-up would result in my forecast temperatures below being too high. Based on that, keep in mind that if this looks like a more likely scenario for the next update, that temperature forecast may be noticeably lower than it is now. I’ll do a finer-tune on this outlook for tomorrow’s update. Shower activity may linger into Tuesday evening as the trough will be sluggish to depart. Wednesday, we’re back into drier air with a sun/cloud mix, and right now I think any pop up showers will stay north of the WHW forecast area. Thursday should start sunny but may end with clouds as the next disturbance approaches from the west, but not a bad day either. And we continue to keep heat generally at bay. You’ll see no 90+ in this forecast.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorm morning and midday, favoring areas east of I-95 and south of I-90, diminishing from west to east. Slight chance of isolated showers during the afternoon and evening. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point under 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising back to near 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Heavier showers and some thunder possible, especially near South Coast. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then clearing. Patchy ground fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point under 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 58-65. Dew point falling to near 50. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 18-22)

Medium range model disagreement always makes forecasting this period with the help of guidance “fun”. Right now I’m leaning toward a faster flow pattern with a shower / thunderstorm chance the first half of August 18 followed by a drying trend, fair weather much of the August 19-20 weekend but possibly ending unsettled with the next disturbance moving in, then fair weather returning again to end the period. Some guidance wants to bring heat in while other guidance says Canadian air will be more dominant. Splitting the difference for now with a forecast of near to slightly above normal temperatures but the opportunity for brief heat shot later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)

A weaker westerly flow with near to below normal precipitation and near to above normal temperatures for late August.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 12-16)

The weekend’s weather is not going to be bad at all. The “interruption” potential is there, but really only in a short time window. A trough of low pressure will generate strong thunderstorms in NY State today and some of them may reach far western New England toward or around sunset, and others may kick off in western New England ahead of this toward evening. This area will move eastward, but with diurnal support needed and being lost, they will weaken, with showers and a few storms reaching western portions of the WHW forecast area (west of Worcester) after 8PM and any remains reaching eastern portions of the forecast area after 10PM. After that just some lingering showers and maybe a renegade thunderstorm can be around overnight as a cold front approaches and moves into the region. As far as viewing the peak hours of the Perseid meteor shower late tonight / early Sunday (midnight to daybreak), it’ll be a hit and miss prospect with variable cloud cover, and the threat of passing showers. The cold front will be right in the I-95 belt Sunday morning to midday when a few more downpours and storms can be generated, but then the front will move offshore during midday and afternoon, with a more tranquil finish to Sunday. Humidity levels will be coming up today, but not to excessive levels, peaking tonight and Sunday morning, before dropping off a little later Sunday. A small area of high pressure brings fair weather for Monday, but high clouds will already be moving in ahead of the next low pressure system, destined to make Tuesday an unsettled day. This will happen as its warm front brings one round of showers in the early hours of Tuesday, and a trough / cold front combo brings a couple rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms during the day. Timing / coverage / intensity still need to be worked out and I’ll attempt to provide more detail on that on the next blog post. That system pulls away, replaced by a mild to warm and drier air mass for Wednesday with very nice mid August weather.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Late-day shower or thunderstorm possible southwestern NH / central MA / eastern CT. Highs 80-87. Dew point rising to 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered to isolated showers / thunderstorms, highest chance southern NH to central MA evening. Patchy ground fog late. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorm morning and midday, diminishing from west to east. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point under 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun then some clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising back to near 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then clearing. Patchy ground fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point under 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 17-21)

A drier overall regime with a westerly air flow dominating. One disturbance brings a shower and thunderstorm chance late August 17 to early August 18 with another shot around August 20. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 22-26)

A weaker westerly flow with near to below normal precipitation and near to above normal temperatures for late August.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 11-15)

Canadian air behind departing low pressure brings a nice summer day today. We will have a gusty breeze from mid morning well into the afternoon, and expect some diurnal cloud development when the sun heats rain-moistened ground with cooler air above. The wind settles tonight and any clouds dissipate and we’ll have a comfortable night by August standards. If you’re up late and are a star gazer, late tonight (early Saturday morning post midnight / pre dawn) will offer a decent opportunity to view the just-about-peak Perseid meteor shower. Best way to view it is away from light sources as much as possible, outside for a while to let eyes adjust, and looking high in the north and northeast sky for thin-appearing, fast-moving streaks. Saturday will dawn with sun which will be dominant for a good part of the day before some clouds arrive later. This will be in response to upstream showers and thunderstorms with a pre-frontal trough approaching from the west. This trough will trigger showers and thunderstorms into western New England by late-day and early evening, and the remains of those can then move across the WHW forecast area from west to east in broken to scattered form mainly after sunset Saturday. Lingering clouds from these may hinder viewing of the peak hours of the Perseid meteors in the early morning hours of Sunday, but with a little luck some partial clearing can take place to allow for at least some limited viewing. A cold front will have to cross the region before the shower and thunderstorm threat is eliminated, and this will take probably until late morning (west) and early afternoon (east), so those will still be in the forecast as a hit-and-miss occurrence for Sunday’s morning and midday hours. Even post front, it will stay on the humid side later Sunday, with slight drying into Monday as a little bubble of high pressure moves close to the region. The zonal flow pattern we’re in sends the next disturbance our way for Tuesday. Low pressure will be set to track north of the region late Tuesday, but before it gets here a warm front will push into and through the region, followed by its cold front as the low moves by. Details to work out will be frontal timing, how long we’re in a warm sector, and resultant shower and thunderstorm intensity and coverage. But it being day 5, it’s too soon for that, so just paint Tuesday as an unsettled day with details to come.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Late-day shower or thunderstorm possible southwestern NH / central MA / eastern CT. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm morning and midday, diminishing from west to east. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point under 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun then some clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising back to near 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably to mostly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 16-20)

A generally zonal flow pattern is expected, disturbances passing by with a couple shower and thunderstorm chances – most likely August 17 & 19. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 21-25)

A weaker westerly flow with near to below normal precipitation and near to above normal temperature expected heading into late August.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 10-14)

A still-active pattern allows plenty of fair weather time between tantrums. One such tantrum is coming in the form of a passing low pressure system tonight. This is the system I’ve been eyeing for a couple days for a brief potential severe storm / tornado threat for the South Coast. It does look like a limited-coverge, short-lived threat for the South Coast region later this evening to the early overnight hours as low pressure passes right over that region. A trough in advance of this system can help kick off a few showers and thunderstorms late today with the help of daytime heating, but expecting only isolated coverage with that and north of I-90. This area will see only limited activity with the nighttime round – mostly just a swath of showers. It’s nearer the South Coast where downpours / thunderstorms / and brief damaging winds can occur. That system is outta here by early Friday, and we’ll have a sun/cloud day with drier air, though comfortably warm, but a gusty breeze. Then while the weekend is looking pretty decent overall, we do have one disturbance to keep an eye on, racing our way via the Great Lakes, later Saturday to early Sunday. The questions regarding the thunderstorm threat with this: Timing? Coverage? Global guidance has been a bit faster, while the shorter range (just on the edge of its time frame) is slower. Global guidance has already proven to be a bit too fast at this range the last couple systems, but not by much. Without over-thinking this and with a couple days to fine-tune it, I’m going with a “Saturday night event” from west to east, in the form of scattered showers and t-storms. Does an additional disturbance prolong the shower / thunderstorm chance on Sunday mainly south of I-90? We will have to re-evaluate that. While a bubble of high pressure brings fair weather at worst by later Sunday (if timing is slower) and at best all of Sunday (with faster timing), we see this continue at least into Monday before we look to the west for the approach of the next disturbance, which for now I think doesn’t get here that day, other than some advanced cloudiness.

TODAY: Sun dominant first half of day, then variably cloudy afternoon. Late-day thunderstorms possible west of I-495. Evening showers eastern CT to RI. Highs 80-87, a bit cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable around 10 MPH by evening.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Downpours and thunderstorms possible mostly south of I-90 which may have the ability to produce isolated tornadoes. Areas of fog forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, can be briefly strong and gusty near any downpours and thunderstorms mainly south of I-90.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day shower or thunderstorm possible southwestern NH / central MA / eastern CT. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm, especially in the morning. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point under 55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising back to near 60. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 15-19)

A generally zonal flow pattern is expected, disturbances passing by with a couple shower and thunderstorm chances – most likely August 15 & 17. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 20-24)

A weaker westerly flow and a little more high pressure domination overall reduces shower/storm opportunities and allows for a little more late summer heat potential during this period.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 9-13)

A westerly air flow behind departing low pressure provides a nice day today with a sun/cloud mix and lower humidity. The breeze will settle down later as a bubble of high pressure to the southwest moves close, then this high will scoot off to the east on Thursday, and after a tranquil night tonight, we’ll experience a southerly breeze tomorrow, not too strong, but one that will transport higher dew point air into the region ahead of the next approaching disturbance. This disturbance has support from a pretty strong jet stream and has a bit of a complex set-up involved with it. I’m looking for a trough to approach later in the day with the possibility of some combination dynamic / diurnal thunderstorms to fire off mainly west of I-495, though this activity should be fairly isolated. At the same time a wave of low pressure will be racing eastward toward southern New England. This system is progged by the majority of guidance to have its center pass somewhere over southern New England late Thursday night to early Friday. While a swath of showers will accompany it, near and just south of its track will find support for individual convective showers and thunderstorms which can display rotation and a possible tornado threat. This is something we’ll have to keep a close eye on from dusk to dawn. Improvement follows quickly on Friday as the disturbance exits the region. Expect a day somewhat similar to the one we will experience today. The weekend looks pretty decent as it stands now, but we’ll have to watch the next disturbance and its timing. I think this one is more of a trough passage sometime between Saturday late night and Sunday midday. That time window would be away from maximum solar heating and may limit the shower and thunderstorm chance. So if you have weekend plans, just keep in mind that somewhere in there is the chance of an interruption in outdoor plans but for the most part it’s looking pretty decent.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 77-84. Dew point around 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing somewhat by the end of the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun dominant first half of day, then variably cloudy afternoon. Late-day thunderstorms possible west of I-495. Evening showers eastern CT to RI. Highs 80-87, a bit cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable around 10 MPH by evening.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Downpours and thunderstorms possible mostly south of I-90 which may have the ability to produce isolated tornadoes. Areas of fog forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH, can be briefly strong and gusty near any downpours/thunderstorms mainly south of I-90.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day shower or thunderstorm possible southwestern NH / central MA / eastern CT. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower, especially in the morning. Highs 78-85. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 14-18)

A generally zonal flow pattern is expected, disturbances passing by with a couple shower and thunderstorm chances – most likely August 15 & 17. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 19-23)

A weaker westerly flow and a little more high pressure domination overall reduces shower/storm opportunities and allows for a little more late summer heat potential during this period.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 8-12)

A trough moving slowly through eastern portions of the region this morning to midday will be the focus for waves of downpours and a few thunderstorms. The primary occurrence of these will be from I-495 trending eastward, especially in the I-95 belt, with torrential rain and flash flooding as the greatest threat, and isolated wind damage / brief tornado being a much lower but non-zero threat. Activity will shift eastward by or after midday with a lull, then a cold front will be swinging through toward evening with one more round of scattered to possibly numerous showers and thunderstorms, this time activity favoring the I-90 belt northward. Occurrences of heavy rain will be much more brief with the second round of activity, minimizing the flood threat, but brief ponding of water can occur on some roads and especially in poor drainage areas where these occur. The low pressure area responsible for this weather departs via southeastern Canada overnight and sets up a nice day for Wednesday with a drying westerly air flow and high pressure to our southwest. This high will slide off to the east by Thursday allowing it to be a bit warmer and more humid. At the same time the next disturbance and frontal system will be racing our way via the Great Lakes / Upper Midwest. By later in the day, a shower and thunderstorm threat will increase. My current feeling on this is that activity will have most support to occur south of I-90 (higher coverage) and in southwestern NH to central MA (scattered heavier activity). Will monitor and fine-tune. Unsettled weather hangs around for Thursday night but moves out quickly to set up a Friday that will be similar to Wednesday – a nice day. Saturday will hang onto the nice weather as another bubble of high pressure slides to the south, but increased humidity and the next approaching disturbance may allow for late-day showers again favoring western portions of the forecast area (southwestern NH / central MA / eastern CT) but this timing and location is not high confidence given it’s day 5, and obviously some adjustments may be needed.

TODAY: Cloudy this morning with waves of showers and thunderstorms including torrential downpours, especially east of I-495, with local flash flooding. Partial sun with only isolated showers first half of afternoon, then heavier clouds with another shower / thunderstorm possible, especially I-90 northward, later in the day. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible around some downpours/thunderstorms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog in wind-protected areas mainly in the evening. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind W 10-20 MPH, diminishing somewhat by the end of the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun dominant first half of day, then variably cloudy afternoon. Showers by late-day favoring south of I-90 and late-day scattered showers and thunderstorms southwestern NH and central MA. Highs 80-87, a bit cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day shower or thunderstorm possible southwestern NH / central MA / eastern CT. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 13-17)

The pattern will be generally zonal – a west to east flow – with passing disturbances bringing occasional opportunities for showers/thunderstorms. Temperatures slightly variable but close to seasonal normals overall.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 18-22)

Slightly more southwesterly air flow overall may allow a bit more heat to sneak in, otherwise no major changes to the general pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 7-11)

The most unsettled portion of this 5-day period will be today and Tuesday, as low pressure tracks from the Upper Ohio Valley / eastern Great Lakes to the St. Lawrence Valley. We’ll have a few rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms. After some “blink-and-you’ll-miss-it” early morning sun in eastern areas today, clouds quickly thicken and shower round #1 comes in ahead of a warm front. This area will be fairly benign and may not even wet the ground in some locations, while others get a bit more rainfall. Expect this to be moving out of the region during midday leaving just isolated sprinkles and light showers around with lots of clouds for the remainder of the day and evening. As the warm front passes you’ll notice a spike in humidity, but it won’t get that warm today due to lack of solar heating. Round #2 of showers and embedded thunderstorms will move through the region overnight and the first half of Tuesday morning. The area will be moving west to east, but the cells within it may have more of a northeast or north movement to them, and while I’m not expecting widespread severe weather, we have to watch some individual cells for the potential to become severe storms – primary threat damaging wind gusts. Any rain that’s heavy enough long enough can lead to local flash flooding. Another break comes midday into afternoon even with some sun possible, but another round of at least scattered showers and storms is expected later in the day into the evening as the cold front trailing the low moves across. Some of these storms can be strong too, but not expecting widespread big storms / severe weather. Just keep a close eye on the weather, especially if you’ll be outside or traveling in the area. Once that cold front goes by we’ll get into a drier westerly air flow behind low pressure which will be exiting the continent via southeastern Canada and Wednesday. Expect a breezy day with some passing fair weather clouds, otherwise quite nice with warm air but lower humidity. Any pop-up showers will stay in the mountains to our north. Thursday will be a nice summer day with fair weather, less wind – a southwest breeze – a bit higher humidity but not oppressive, and warm air. If you made beach plans (*raising my hand*) this is the beach pick of the week. The next disturbance approaching the region from the west sends its clouds into the region later in the day, and current timing suggests that the greatest shower chance with this may come overnight late Thursday night or early Friday morning, before Friday ends up as a mostly fair weather day. Previously I had been thinking Friday’s daytime would be more unsettled, but this may not be the case. I’ll eye it and update it as we go…

TODAY: Quick sun eastern areas early, otherwise mainly cloudy. Showers move in west to east this morning exiting during midday, with just isolated showers possible thereafter. Highs 71-78. Dew point climbing into the 60s. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog in wind-protected areas. Isolated evening showers. Widespread showers and possible thunderstorms arrive west to east overnight. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy through mid morning with showers and possible thunderstorms. Scattered downpours may cause brief flash flooding. Partial sun for a while midday into afternoon. Mostly cloudy again later with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms returning west to east. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts. Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible around some thunderstorms.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog in wind-protected areas mainly in the evening. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind W 10-20 MPH, diminishing somewhat by the end of the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun dominant first half of day, clouds increase later in the day. Highs 80-87, a bit cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm late evening and overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 12-16)

The pattern will be generally zonal – a west to east flow – with passing disturbances. Shower/thunderstorm chances are highest August 13 and/or 14. Much of the time will feature rain-free weather. Temperatures fairly close to normal overall, but no major sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 17-21)

A continuation of a generally zonal flow pattern with passing disturbances. Specific timing impossible but will watch for a couple shower and thunderstorm threats during this time. Temperatures may trend a bit warmer/hotter during this period with a little more northward displacement of the jet stream and a little more high pressure off the East Coast.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 6-10)

Not making any changes to the forecast other than slightly faster timing of the Monday-Tuesday unsettled weather. High pressure controls today with great weather, and moves offshore tonight. A warm front moves into and across the region Monday, and as its parent low passes northwest of our region, a trough and cold front will swing through on Tuesday, then offshore Tuesday night with a drying air mass for Wednesday. This time high pressure slides a bit further south and by Thursday we’ll be warmer, more humid, and have some clouds re-introduced to the sky, but for now I feel that any shower threat Thursday will hold off until later at night with a generally nice summer day anticipated.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point 50s. Wind NW to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 56-63. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Early sun then lots of clouds. A shower chance midday and again evening. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH, light coastal sea breeze possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 11-15)

Best shower and thunderstorm chances August 11 and August 13 and/or 14. Much of the time fair with a zonal flow and weak disturbances passing by. Temperatures fairly close to normal – no significant sustained heat.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 16-20)

A zonal flow pattern with a tendency for a weak low pressure trough being nearby. Passing disturbances bring a couple shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures near normal.