DAYS 1-5 (JULY 21-25)

A more “typical” mid summer pattern is now ours. While in general, the large scale pattern hasn’t shifted in a major way, it’s relaxed enough to end the more persistent humid and unsettled weather and open the door for a dry air intrusion from Canada and more rain-free days than rain-threat days. But we do have some unsettled weather to get through before that marked shot of drier air. First, we have low pressure passing to our northwest today and tonight before it exits via southeastern Canada. Its warm front will edge north and northeast, with our region still north of it for much of today. A batch of thunderstorms that occurred to our west last night entered western New England in the early morning hours, and will continue its decay / dissipation process as it moves eastward, with no more than light showers surviving into the WHW forecast area west to east this morning and midday. Other showers and storms that generate during the day to our west can reach southwestern NH, central MA, and CT by later in the day as the warm front finally pushes through and a cold front approaches from the west. This front will move into the region tonight when most of our shower and thunderstorm activity will occur. Due to lack of heating for storms based on the evening / night timing, I don’t expect the storms to be all that strong, but a few isolated downpours and lightning displays are possible, so keep that in mind if you do have evening plans. Activity will settle down overnight, leaving only a few showers possible near the coast, especially Cape Cod, by morning, before the front moves offshore into the Atlantic waters. An offshore low pressure wave may keep cloudiness moving across the region at times during the day Saturday, so despite the disappearing rain chances, it will be slow to completely clear out, sky-wise. But you will notice a reduction in humidity during the day. This will set us up for a fabulous summer day on Sunday with abundant sun, seasonable warmth, and lower humidity with dew points falling to under 60 for the first time in quite a while across most of the region. And you get to enjoy this for an extra day Monday as high pressure hangs on. Tuesday’s weather will feature a bit more humidity and a later-day thunderstorm chance as a disturbance approaches from the west again.

TODAY: Most sun early. Clouds dominate. A shower possible mid morning to noon southwestern NH, central MA, CT, possibly as far east as the I-95 belt. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms later afternoon mostly I-95 belt westward. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially before midnight. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A few showers possible morning eastern areas, favoring Cape Cod. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in lower elevation locations. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point near to slightly below 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s to near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm by late day. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 26-30)

A slightly more established west to northwest flow with less trough in the region allows for very warm weather and limited shower/thunderstorm chances, with July 28 being a more likely day to see unsettled weather surrounded by rain-free days. May see a few more 90+ high temp days for portions of the region but not an indication of sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

Large scale pattern features high pressure in the central US and a weak trough between the Great Lakes and Canadian Maritime region. For our area this means a couple shower/thunderstorm chances but a less pronounced unsettled pattern than previously, and no sustained major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 20-24)

A continued gradual shift of the pattern continues in the coming days. Today’s weather is fair, and while still humid by definition, you’ll notice it doesn’t have the saturated feel that the air has had many a day recently. Moving about outside will not make you feel like you’re running laps in a sauna. Any early-morning fog in lower elevations will dissipate quickly, and sunshine will be dominant a good part of today before some clouds start to show up later. These clouds will move in more aggressively tonight, both high and mid level clouds from the southwest ahead of a warm front, and some lower stratus clouds from an air flow off the ocean to the south bringing in increased lower level moisture. A couple showers and even a thunderstorm may wander into and/or develop in portions of the region later this evening and overnight with instability ahead of the warm front. Friday’s weather will be fairly cloudy, humid, and mild, with a passing shower at times, and a thunderstorm can’t be ruled out, especially inland, away from a more stabilizing influence of a southeast to south wind as the warm front goes by. The cold front associated with low pressure passing to our north will lazily move across the region from west to east Friday evening and overnight and still can trigger a few showers and thunderstorms, but I’m not expecting a widespread heavy rainfall this time. Also of note, while not as thick as recently, some near-surface wildfire smoke from Canada lingers through Friday before being pushed out. Saturday’s weather will feature lowering humidity as the front moves offshore, but a cool pool of air aloft and just enough moisture left at the surface fires off diurnal cloud development as the sun works on things, and a few of these clouds may grow enough to produce isolated showers and/or thunderstorms. Again, not a widespread issue, but just something to keep an eye out for if you have outside plans, which I would not cancel for this remote chance of getting rained on. For the most part, Saturday’s to be nice. Sunday is the pick of the weekend though with lots of sun, seasonable warmth, but noticeably lower humidity – the lowest dew points in some time. High pressure moves over the region with fair and seasonable weather on Monday, an early candidate for the pick of next week…

TODAY: Sunshine dominant much of day, with patchy clouds later on. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind N shifting to E-SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds take over. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Areas of fog especially South Coast. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind E-SE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog especially near the coast. Episodic showers and the chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH increasing to 10-15 MPH later.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in lower elevation locations. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point near to slightly below 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 25-29)

While the general weather pattern features a weak trough wanting to be in the Great Lakes and Northeast, it’s not as pronounced a wet pattern as previously and features a little more zonal (west to east) flow overall. Initially we see high pressure offshore and a disturbance moving through with a shower and thunderstorm chance to start the period, and maybe another around July 28, with fair weather days outnumbering unsettled ones. Humidity spikes higher early in the period and manageable thereafter. Remaining absent is any sustained significant heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

General pattern favors a weak trough Great Lakes to Northeast with a couple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms with higher humidity, and drier interludes between. Continued no sign of any “heatwave” type conditions.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 19-23)

A gradual easing of the ongoing pattern takes place now, with less frequent rain, humidity down a few notches, and a bit more dry air sneaking in from Canada (especially over the weekend). It will still be humid, with dew points generally above 60, but absent will be the 70+ dew points except possibly a few locations on Friday. Also, Friday is going to be be the only significantly unsettled day out of the next 5. Today carries only a minor chance of an isolated shower mainly to the south of Boston as a weak frontal boundary drifts away from the coast to offshore. We have areas of fog as well as continued Canadian wildfire smoke over the region today, but both will make an exit, the fog first, the smoke later. The next trough of low pressure approaches late Thursday with clouds moving back in, leading to our showery Friday. While parameters will be missing for severe storms, weak steering and plentiful moisture sets the table for slow-moving showers and embedded thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, over a region that’s recently been frequently saturated. Therefore, the flooding issue can trigger easily, so keep that in mind if you live in a flood-prone area or will be traveling. Improvement comes this weekend. The trough lingers just long enough to allow for isolated showers to pop up on Saturday, but this will be much more the exception than the rule, and then a push of lower dew point air from Canada will make Sunday the nicest day in quite a while by opinion or many people.

TODAY: Smoke/haze/fog limit the sun early. A sun/cloud mix follows, with most clouds South Coast morning-midday. Isolated showers possible RI & southeastern MA. Highs 81-88 except cooler in some coastal communities. Wind W up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. A few fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and shower chance increasing late. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 70. Wind S to E up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in lower elevation locations. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point near to slightly below 60. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 24-28)

Moderate humidity and dry weather is expected through July 24 to start next week, before the next trough, albeit weak, moves into the region with increased humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances July 25 and/or July 26. Drying trend later in the period. No sustained significant heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

General pattern favors a weak trough Great Lakes to Northeast with a few opportunities for showers/storms, somewhat humid but a couple drier interludes, and no sustained major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 18-22)

Today we deal with areas of fog, smoke, and a thunderstorm threat, along with continued high humidity. This happens as a weak cold front heads toward the region and some of the smoke that entered the region both surface and aloft hangs around for a while today. The early-day fog will dissipate where it’s occurring. This afternoon and early evening we’ll have to watch for the development of showers and thunderstorms, mainly near and west of the I-95 belt. They likely never make it to southeastern MA and most of RI though with the timing too late and not enough momentum before they dissipate. The frontal boundary will be crossing those same areas tomorrow through about midday though and can help initiate a few isolated showers in the regions missed today before it moves offshore. Otherwise, expect a warm and generally rain-free day Wednesday, still humid but the dew point will be down a few notches over today, maybe enough to notice. Sunshine will become dominant on Wednesday, but there may still be some lingering smoke in the air before it gets pushed out. Thursday, we’ll see the return of cloudiness ahead of the next trough, but right now it looks like it will be a rain-free day across the region. That trough moving into the area on Friday brings a surge of higher humidity and a much better chance of at least scattered showers and thunderstorms. It starts to move off to the east Saturday, but is close enough with high enough humidity lingering that we can’t rule out some additional pop up showers and storms that day, but with less coverage than Friday.

TODAY: Limited sun due to both clouds and wildfire smoke both surface and aloft. Areas of fog early. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon favoring areas near and west of I-95. Any storms can be strong. Highs 81-88, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny RI and southeastern MA until midday with an isolated shower possible, otherwise mostly sunny. Areas of smoke/haze. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. A few fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog and shower chance increasing late. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point 70+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 80-87. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 23-27)

Fair, lower humidity July 23-24 with a modified Canadian air mass here. Return to higher humidity and shower/t-storm chances mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

General pattern favors a weak trough Great Lakes to Northeast with a few opportunities for showers/storms, somewhat humid but a couple drier interludes, and no sustained major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 17-21)

The more things change, the more they stay the same? The pattern changes this week, but it also stays the same. How is that possible? The overall pattern on the large scale doesn’t change too much. Yes, blocking high pressure over Greenland weakens and has a little less control of the weather as a result, but it’s still going to be there, and still induce a fairly persistent trough of low pressure over the Great Lakes and Northeast. But this week’s set-up does allow for a little more efficient eastward movement of systems moving through the trough. So while we do see some unsettled periods, we get a couple breaks. The “break” days are today and Wednesday. A weak area of high pressure builds in today now that we’ve said goodbye to the very wet weather of yesterday, and it’ll be a warm day, still humid but not oppressive, but absent of a rain chance across the region. You will notice, however, that the blue sky is not all that blue, and this is the familiar sight of wildfire smoke from Canada which is still around the region at times. We will have it today, but it is mostly aloft. A cold front will approach the region on Tuesday, and while we get through a fair amount of the day rain-free, a shower and thunderstorm threat looms for the later afternoon and evening from west to east. The timing of this front and a lack of strong support may mean that showers and storms struggle to survive all the way eastward, so look for the greatest chance of occurrence and the heaviest rainfall to the west, with a decreasing chance as you head east. Can’t rule out a few stronger showers and storms right to the coast though, so be aware of that if you have outdoor plans Tuesday afternoon and evening. Whatever activity does occur dissipates and moves out by late evening and then it’s time for another break time through Wednesday when high pressure will build in. This area of high pressure will carry a little drier air with it, so the dew point will come down somewhat – not to polar dry levels, but you’ll notice it. But remember we’re still in a somewhat unsettled pattern, and the next low pressure system will be set to impact the region with a shower and thunderstorm threat later Thursday into Friday, based on current timing.

TODAY: Lots of clouds especially southeastern MA into mid morning, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 82-89, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon may organize to a line or line segments late afternoon / early evening. Highest chance for heaviest downpours I-95 belt and westward. Highs 81-88, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. A few fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Late-day showers possible in western areas (southwestern NH, central MA, eastern CT). Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely through midday. Becoming partly sunny during the afternoon with an additional shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)

While the overall pattern remains generally similar, a shot of drier air from Canada follows the late week system to bring dew points down and eliminate the region chance for the July 22-23 weekend. Humidity and shower chance comes back during the early to middle portion of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)

The final days of July feature a similar pattern. A slightly drier shot of air from Canada may follow a couple shower threats in an overall humid and seasonably warm pattern with no sustained significant heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)

Today carries flood and severe weather potential from tropical showers and thunderstorms that will be moving mostly south to north while ribbons of them drift eastward in response to a slow-moving cold front and a saturated atmosphere. Torrential downpours and damaging wind gusts are the primary threats. Hail is a lower threat today. Lightning is a threat in any thunderstorm, though some produce more frequent cloud-to-ground lightning than others. The rule is, as soon as you hear it, the storm is close enough to endanger you, so move to a place of safety. Also never try crossing a flooded road, most especially moving water, in a vehicle or on foot. While many areas will come away with just a wet, muggy summer day, others will see the occurrence of the more severe weather from this event. Take note, be weather-aware, and don’t take unnecessary risks out there. Things settle down from west to east this evening and tonight as the front pulls through, and we’ll be set up for a much quieter day on Monday, with more sun, some clouds, and maybe a few pop up showers/downpours favoring southeastern MA / Cape Cod during the midday hours with some lingering tropical moisture being acted on by the July sun. Other than that, it will be mainly rain-free across the region, but quite warm and still humid. Another cold front approaches the region Tuesday. You might think “two cold fronts? why isn’t it getting colder?” … but keep in mind this is mid summer now and cold front is a relative term, especially in this pattern when you’re not tapping cool/dry air from Canada. These fronts are weak in terms of not delivering a cooler, drier air mass, but do provide a focus of convergence for shower/storm development. And we’ll see this chance again Tuesday afternoon and evening, but a little more progressively than today’s event. However, the threat of heavy downpours will be there and with the much of the region seeing heavy rain recently and again today, the flash flood threat will be renewed, just for a shorter period of time. This particular cold front will bring in slightly drier air for Wednesday, with will be a fair weather day from start to finish with no threat of showers/storms. We haven’t had many of those since the start of meteorological summer, but that day will be one of them. Humidity comes back up and at least the threat of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday as a weak disturbance moves into the region ahead of the next trough of low pressure that seem to occur in an endless parade this season.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms until midday then more widespread showers/thunderstorms from then on. Torrential rainfall and flash flooding likely in some areas. Damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes may occur in isolated locations. Highs 72-79. Dew point 70+. Wind S 5-15 MPH but can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms / downpours.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a brief shower/downpour favoring southeastern MA midday. Highs 80-87, except cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms become likely from west to east mid afternoon to early evening. Highs 80-87, cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. A few fog patches in lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point rising to 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)

A more limited chance of showers/storms but still there are a couple disturbances pass by on a more westerly flow. No major heat of the sustained variety.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)

A similar pattern will continue late month – a few opportunities for showers/storms but a little less active overall, and no major sustained heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 15-19)

Yesterday the every-other-day unsettled pattern meant 3 out of 5 days were more unsettled. Today, it’s only 2 out of 5. HAHA!! Today, there is a temporary exception in a day that will carry much less of a chance of showers and storms and see most areas rain-free for the entire day, and that is the Islands and Outer Cape Cod, which have heavy showers and storms around early to mid morning before they head out. Otherwise, a couple of isolated showers may pop up today in an otherwise cloud/sun mix, mainly rain-free, but humid day. Not too bad compared to many days we’ve had so far this summer. But tomorrow, with the help of a frontal boundary moving in from the west and an abundant amount of moisture available, the shower and thunderstorm threat goes up and will be fairly widespread in coverage. There is concern for flooding issues due to the heavy rainfall. The good news is this system moves along enough so that we get back into a break Monday. We do follow it up with another shower/storm threat Tuesday, and see another break on Wednesday as systems start to move a little more efficiently west-to-east. This is due to a weakening of the long-standing Greenland blocking high pressure. Something you often hear about in winter, but it can occur during the warm season as well.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms likely Islands to Outer Cape Cod through mid morning, otherwise isolated showers possible anywhere this afternoon. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Torrential rainfall and flash flooding likely in some areas. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a shower or thunderstorm. Partly cloudy with patchy fog overnight. Lows 66-73. Dew point 60+. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)

A more limited chance of showers/storms but still there are a couple disturbances pass by on a more westerly flow. No major heat of the sustained variety.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)

A similar pattern will continue late into the month – a few opportunities for showers/storms but a little less active overall, and no major sustained heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 14-18)

The general pattern remains the same – frequently unsettled, often humid, no major heat. This is being driven primarily by a blocking high pressure in the area of Greenland that has been happy to hang around there for weeks, and will be doing so for at least another 5 days (and likely beyond that too). This keeps a trough in our region, with episodic showers and thunderstorms being more likely every other day (today, Sunday, Tuesday). On the in-between days (Saturday and Monday), the chance is lower and any activity that does occur will tend to be isolated with most areas dry.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Most sun this morning except Cape Cod which will have showers and thunderstorms early to mid morning. Least sun this afternoon with showers and thunderstorms possible to probable anywhere, a few of which can be strong. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 19-23)

Transition to a slightly less unsettled pattern begins as the Greenland block weakens. A couple showers and thunderstorm chances favor mid to late period with one or two disturbances coming from the west in quicker-moving zonal flow pattern. No sustained major heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 24-28)

A weaker version of the “summer-so-far” pattern with a few shower and thunderstorm chances but not quite as active, and no sustained major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 13-17)

Boston’s Logan airport will not set a new record for the latest first 90+ of the season. They finally made it yesterday, late in the afternoon, when a weak sea breeze quit and a southwest wind took over, pushing them briefly to 91. But this is not the sign of a sudden switch to a hot pattern. The pattern featuring high humidity but a lack of heat will continue for a while yet. Along with this comes additional wet weather chances, but focused on every other day, with just limited activity today, more activity Friday, limited again Saturday, and another increase Sunday, before the see-saw tips the other way Monday. This is essentially an unchanged outlook from yesterday, so I won’t re-hash all of it. The idea is the same. A trough of low pressure dominates the weather, and disturbances push into and through the region, and two such disturbances will be right in our area Friday and again Sunday, when chances are highest for seeing wet weather in much of the region.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon, but most activity will be isolated and west of I-95. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early and again overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening with showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Breaking clouds overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 18-22)

Based on current timing, shower and thunderstorm chances are highest on July 18 and 20, but cannot rule out a shower or storm any of these days with the overall pattern similar. High humidity may break somewhat later in the period. No major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 23-27)

One or two drier intrusions of Canadian air, still some shower and thunderstorm opportunities though. Still no major sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 12-16)

You’ll notice we have some high altitude smoke in the sky again from Canada. We’ve seen this off and on for some time now since the fire season started early up there, but they are in their normal fire season now and so there are still a series of ongoing wildfires that continue to provide smoke that occasionally gets into our sky. Thankfully the closer-to-surface smoke is rather thin today and will be dissipated and removed from the area by tomorrow. Otherwise, weatherwise, here’s the deal. High pressure built in surface and aloft yesterday as low pressure lifted away from the region with a nice summer day – a touch less humid though still technically humid, and quite warm but not excessively hot. Today we edge up both the temperature and humidity for more of a classic summer-feeling day. A weak, nearly indiscernible trough line will be edging down from northern New England and is a slight aid to triggering a few showers and thunderstorms mainly near the MA/NH border, west of I-95, later today. A few of these may wander into northeastern MA by the end of the afternoon or early evening but should be in their dissipating process by that time. Will Boston’s Logan airport hit 90 for the first time this season today? Maybe, but a light sea breeze can prevent it, unless that breeze occurs and dies off early enough, in which case the airport can jump up at the end of the day. Many areas away from the coast make a run at or slightly surpass 90 today. As you know, 90+ temps have been lacking thus far and so when you get there, along with some humidity, in a season that’s been sparsely populated with them, it feels quite hot. If you are outside today, stay hydrated and in the shade when possible. Our overall weather pattern is unchanged yet, and we have another low pressure trough to govern the overall weather from Thursday through the weekend. This trough will take its time moving eastward into our region via the Great Lakes, and as I thought yesterday, Friday and Sunday appear to be the 2 days with the highest concentration of showers and thunderstorms out of that 4-day stretch. Obviously, fine tuning will come both in comments sections after each blog post, and with each morning blog update itself. Don’t cancel your weekend plans, but know that Sunday is likely to carry a higher potential of showers/storms regionwide than Saturday does.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. A few isolated showers or thunderstorms possible in the afternoon interior southern NH and north central to northeastern MA. Highs 85-92, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon, but most activity will be isolated and west of I-95. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early and again overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 17-21)

Based on current timing, shower and thunderstorm chances are highest on July 16 and 18, but cannot rule out a shower or storm any of these days with the overall pattern similar. High humidity may break somewhat later in the period. No major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 22-26)

Continued indications of a break-down of the blocking pattern that has caused the muggy/showery pattern to more of a zonal flow with 1 or 2 dry air intrusions from Canada behind a couple shower/thunderstorm threats. Still no indications of any sustained significant heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 11-15)

While the overall pattern of high humidity and frequently unsettled weather doesn’t change, we do get into one of those “break” periods today and Wednesday. The anomalous low pressure area that brought substantial rainfall just west of our region with major flooding and a pretty good couple swaths of downpours to our area with more moderate flooding in some locations has lifted to the north. A slightly drier westerly air flow will now be with us today into Wednesday, with a tiny edge taken off the humidity. But compensating for this will be a boost in temperature. Boston’s Logan Airport (where the official temperature is taken for the city) has yet to hit 90 this year and has an outside shot of finally doing so on Wednesday. This will largely depend on whether or not a light sea breeze kicks in there long enough to prevent it. Either way, a nice couple of summer days coming up in comparison to recent weather and past frequently unsettled conditions. There will be some cloudiness around eastern MA and southern NH to start the day – wrap around clouds behind the departing low pressure area. Otherwise just some passing fair weather clouds will be around today. Tonight, some fog patches may form in interior lower elevations where temperatures can fall more easily to match the moderately high dew points. This burns off quickly early Wednesday and we just see some more pop up cumulus clouds, a couple of which can grow enough to produce an isolated shower or thunderstorm mainly in interior southern NH and north central MA in the afternoon. Any of these that do occur will be of short duration. And then nature reminds us that we are not really out of the overall weather pattern we’ve been in for quite a while, when the next low pressure trough moves in Thursday into late week with another increase in shower and thunderstorm chances. Of the 3 days Thursday through Saturday, Friday looks like the most active one at this time, but will need to monitor trends on shorter-range guidance as we get closer.

TODAY: Early clouds southern NH and eastern MA, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 78-85. Dew point falling toward 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind WSW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon interior southern NH and north central MA. Highs 85-92, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 16-20)

Shower and thunderstorm chances higher every other day (July 16, 18, 20). A pattern of high humidity but a lack of major heat continues through mid month.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 21-25)

Similar pattern to start the period, but finally a break-down of a persistent blocking pattern at high latitudes may occur enough to allow a drier air intrusion from Canada later in the period.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 10-14)

Ingredients are in place for a significant rain event today in the Northeast. Here in the WHW forecast area we’ll be luckier than the heavier rain areas west of the Connecticut River Valley from northern CT through western MA and especially VT, and adjacent eastern NY, where rainfall amounts of up to double-digit totals cannot be ruled out, and flooding may rival that of Tropical Storm Irene in August 2011. The rainfall amounts and flood threat will drop off as you head eastward, but we can still see some heavy enough rainfall for at least minor to locally moderate flooding, more of the poor drainage and small stream variety. Most of this will take place from later this morning through this afternoon as waves of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms move through. This is in response to a wave of low pressure moving northward along an inverted trough just to our west, tapping tropical moisture in place. While the risk is very low, some of the embedded heavier showers / thunderstorms can produce damaging wind gusts, and there’s an even lower but non-zero risk of low level rotation in isolated heavier cells that could lead to a brief relatively weak tornado. Low pressure will then start to lift northward and the shower activity will come to an end from southwest to northeast this evening and tonight. Some areas of rather dense fog around this morning may return again during tonight as the temperature and dew point match. Tuesday, we’ll see improvement with some at least partial clearing, but I can’t rule out one more passing shower or two from west to east as the trough line swings eastward behind the departing low, but in general it’ll be a much nicer day than today, although still on the muggy side. Wednesday, high pressure builds in both at the surface and aloft, and while it will “bring the heat”, relatively speaking, it will also drop the dew point slightly – maybe some of you will notice it, but it will be somewhat counteracted by the hotter temperatures with a few lower 90s for highs, while most areas peak in the upper 80s, and some coastal areas are a little cooler due to a sea breeze that likely develops. Enjoy that fair weather interlude if you can, because the overall pattern is still unsettled, and the next trough and frontal system will approach Thursday and Friday when the chance of showers and thunderstorms goes up again, along with the humidity, although the heat will be held in check.

TODAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers, some with heavy rain. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog early. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but locally strong and gusty winds may occur around any heavier showers/storms.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers end. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Areas of fog early. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 85-92, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm early. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 15-19)

The July 15-16 weekend will be warm and humid with a daily chance of a few showers and thunderstorms with a weak trough of low pressure around. This general pattern continues into next week as well. No major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 20-24)

Overall pattern of weak west to east flow with a weak trough often nearby. This brings a couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable, slightly variable temperatures, with no sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 9-13)

Clouds are dominant today along with continued high humidity. Fog and stratus will be more persistent in coastal areas as higher clouds above limit the sun’s ability to burn these off, and overall we’ll have a cloudier day today, with limited chances for showers and a few thunderstorms to develop, restricted to mainly interior locations this afternoon. But any that do form can contain heavy downpours. The frontal boundary that’s been edging closer to the region will be just to our west through today into Monday but a wave of low pressure forming on it will enhance rainfall tonight into Monday. The heaviest thrust of this will be just west of the WHW forecast area where some significant flooding may take place. We’ll have our own round or two of fairly widespread moderate to heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms to swing through here overnight and Monday. There is a potential that the heavier cells can produce damaging wind gusts – something we haven’t seen much of around here lately. Also, the flash flood potential is there with areas of heavy rainfall. It’ll be important to be weather-aware across the region during Monday. As the low pressure wave lifts through northern New England Monday night into Tuesday, things will quiet down, but it may take a while to clear out. We do end up with a better day Tuesday – a sun/cloud mix, still humid, but a much lower chance that anyone sees any rain, maybe just a few isolated showers. High pressure both at the surface and aloft brings a summery day Wednesday without a rain threat – just very warm, lots of sun, and fairly humid. An approaching cold front brings a shower and thunderstorm threat back to the region for Thursday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring areas west of I-95 during the second half of the afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog early. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but locally strong and gusty winds may occur around any heavier showers/storms.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers early in the morning. Areas of fog early. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 84-91, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind variable to S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 14-18)

A lingering shower or thunderstorm possible early in the period, otherwise a drying trend into the July 15-16 weekend with a shower/thunderstorm threat returning before it’s over, and into early the following week as another frontal system moves into the region and hangs around. Humidity likely remains high, but no major sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 19-23)

Overall pattern of weak west to east flow with a weak trough often nearby. This brings a couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable, slightly variable temperatures, with no sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 8-12)

This weekend will be a muggy one, warmest today, a little less warm tomorrow, more sun today than tomorrow, and limited shower and thunderstorm chances. Today’s best shot at pop up showers and thunderstorms will be west of I-95. Tomorrow’s shower chance goes up later in the day, and coverage of those should be greater, but with more cloud cover the thunderstorm chance is likely to drop off somewhat. This all takes place with a low pressure trough to our west, and an associated surface frontal boundary getting closer to our region, while it’s held back a bit by a weak ridge of high pressure to our east. There’s still a hint of uncertainty as to how the wettest weather plays out in terms of location / time frame Monday into Tuesday, but for now keeping the forecast generally the same, with Monday and Monday evening being the wettest for the region overall, and some improvement for Tuesday. There is some guidance that has the opposite idea, and I’m aware of the possibility that it ends up more correct than my current forecast, but I don’t think it will. One thing I’m more confident of, high pressure brings a warm, rain-free day to us on Wednesday, but with humidity still on the high side.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, mainly west of I-95. Highs 83-90 except 75-82 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the second half of the afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers in the morning. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 84-91, cooler some coastal areas. Dew point 60+. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 13-17)

Mainly rain-free with a minimal shower/thunderstorm threat for July 13, then a better shot at showers/storms as a front pushes through from west to east July 14 based on current timing. This should clear the region out for at least the start of the July 15-16 weekend but showers/storms may return before it’s over, into the start of the following week, along with continued high humidity, but no major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 18-22)

Overall pattern features weak west to east flow with a weak trough often nearby. This brings a couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable, slightly variable temperatures, with no sustained heat indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 7-11)

Today’s blog update carries a similar idea to yesterday’s but attempts to fine-tune some of the uncertainty. Today’s weather will be similar to yesterday’s. Low clouds and areas of fog dominate eastern CT, RI, and southeastern MA to start the day, but most of this will burn off by mid to late morning. Eventually we’ll see more of a sun/cloud mix with some diurnal cumulus forming. Today’s isolated shower and thunderstorm chance is lower. Where as we popped a half dozen or so in the WHW forecast area, today I’d expect about 3 or fewer, and favoring areas away from the coast. Today’s coastal sea breeze will cool the beaches, but won’t be met with the convergence and instability that yesterday’s was, so that shower / storm trigger will be absent, with just a couple to a few air mass bubble-ups possible inland. Anything that does form fades quickly toward sunset. Some mid to high level cloud patches from a frontal boundary still well to our west can be seen in the western sky later today. Areas of stratus and patchy fog will redevelop tonight as the high humidity continues, but again this will burn off during Saturday morning. The trough and front to our west edges a bit eastward toward our region, very slowly, and during the day Saturday we’ll see more cloudiness in association with it, but directly frontal-driven showers and storms will stay west of the region, with a moist southerly air flow and solar heating contributing to isolated showers and storms, maybe a few more than today, but favoring areas west of the I-95 belt during the afternoon. Again, any of this activity subsides by nightfall, and a repeat of stratus development takes place in portions of the region later at night into Sunday morning. Sunday’s weather should feature some sun but with a mix of clouds too as initially the frontal boundary has limited impact on the region, but as the day goes along, clouds will win the battle and it is by late-day or evening when the shower threat goes up significantly. I do think thunderstorm activity will be limited, most likely over interior locations, with predominantly non-lightning-producing shower activity. A wave of low pressure brings a good shot at a fairly widespread significant showery rainfall to the region into Monday, perhaps for much of that day, with improvement expected as the low moves away Tuesday. Humidity will remain high throughout this time frame although there will be a cooling trend in temperature.

TODAY: Low clouds southern areas burning off by mid to late morning, otherwise sunshine and developing clouds with a chance of a few isolated showers and/or thunderstorms mainly away from the coast this afternoon. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH except S-SE over eastern MA and RI.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, favoring northeastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the second half of the afternoon. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Widespread showers. Chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning. Areas of fog early. Highs 73-80. Dew point 65+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 12-16)

A fair weather interlude with weak high pressure in the area early in the period during the middle of next week, followed by another unsettled weather episode with showers / thunderstorms later in the week before improvement during the July 15-16 weekend. No sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 17-21)

Weak zonal flow pattern, still a tendency for a weak trough to hang around. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable, slightly variable temperatures, with no sustained heat indicated.