1250pm

I’m sure most of you would rather forget the 5 weeks we just had. I assure you, I am not one of them. While certainly not the snowiest period of weather we’ve ever had, it was right up there with some of the big ones. So instead of getting into numbers and facts right now, I’ll post some links on those things soon, so you can check them out if you would like to!

My previous blog touched on today’s weather, and we are now enjoying a mostly sunny and relatively mild day, but the enjoyment is being tempered by a gusty wind if you are outside. Also, as mentioned before, there are some really icy areas where packed snow partially melted, collected rain yesterday, then froze early this morning. I was able to stand almost at the top of my driveway and just slide down to the bottom. I have a bit of a chip-out project ahead of me this afternoon – and I’m out of ice melt. Ugh. 😛

Last night, many of you in eastern MA and southeastern NH saw lightning & heard thunder as a clash between warmer air to the south and cold air lingering to the north set off some thunderstorms, near the center of low pressure which cut right across eastern MA during the evening. Vivid lightning was seen, and made even brighter by the snowcover. Locally, a lightning bolt struck in my neighborhood, bringing the fire department to a nearby street. It looks like any damage done was due to a power surge. Some downpours accompanied these storms, but for the most part in this area, we escaped really heavy rainfall, which would have made the roof collapse threat even worse, as a heavy snowpack remained on many roofs.

Looking ahead, the week will start on the mild side Monday, with a few rain showers possible. But a cold front crossing the region will return cold air to the region by Monday night, and a storm moving northeastward along this boundary will bring a 12-hour snow threat to the region from about 11pm Monday to 11am Tuesday (except rain or snow over far southeastern areas). I’ll be looking more closely at this snow threat and posting forecast amounts later. There is the potential for a few inches in some areas with this system. Dry & cold weather is expected Wednesday-Friday. Some of  you may remember talk of a storm threat around Thursday, and that storm will certainly exist, but at this time it appears it may track over the ocean well east of here, and not score a hit.

There continue to be signs of a large scale pattern change starting about the middle of the month. A more zonal (west to east) flow in the upper level winds would mean somewhat milder and much less stormy weather. I’m not 100% convinced this is about to occur, but I’m leaning in that direction.

An evening blog will include a detailed Boston area forecast for the week ahead! Have a Super Sunday everyone!

340am

Hi all! Another quick update early this Sunday morning.

Focusing on today’s weather:

Up-sides: Sunny, mild (high temps in the middle 40s).

Down-sides: Windy (west wind gusting as high as 35 mph), icy ground where hard-packed snow on some walkways and driveways was smoothed out by the mild rain of Saturday evening.

A new blog in a few hours will detail past weather including the pattern we have been in, the storm that just went by, including thunderstorms last night, another cold week ahead, and a probable pattern change starting at mid month!

200am

Brief update. Saturday’s storm is going to take a slightly further westward track, allowing milder air to dominate and meaning much of the precipitation in the Boston area will fall as rain. There is still a change to snow likely toward storm’s end but accumulations should be limited to a couple inches or less later at night to early Sunday morning.

More later this morning…

1150pm

New England continues to be the pins in Mother Nature’s bowling alley. As the region continues to slowly recover from the lastest 1-2 punch, another disturbance is taking aim on us. Though it does not look like a major storm,  there is the potential for some plowable snow to fall again on Saturday. I expect a developing and slowly organizing low pressure area to move from the Mid Atlantic Coast to just southeast of Cape Cod during Saturday & Saturday evening, then away from New England at night. This time, the air ahead of the storm will be a little less cold than it has been in many of our setups. This probably means that some mix/rain will occur especially early in the storm from the Boston area to Cape Cod, with the Cape having the best chance of straight rain. Snow should fall to the north and west of Boston though it could briefly mix with rain, freezing rain, or sleet there. As the storm goes on, colder air will work in from the north and northwest, changing it to snow from northwest to southeast. And a lingering trough behind the departing low may keep the snow going a little longer into Saturday night over portions of central, east central, and northeastern MA and nearby southern NH. Snowfall amounts should run from around 1 inch over Cape Cod (occurring late in the storm), 1-3 inches over the remainder of southeastern and coastal MA & much of RI, 3-5 inches over the balance of eastern and central MA & southern NH. Isolated 6 to 7 inch amounts are possible in some areas of central to northeastern MA and southern NH, depending on the coverage and intensity of snow behind the departing storm at night.

Superbowl Sunday is expected to be tranquil and not too cold, as there is no batch of Arctic air ready to pounce this time. Some low level moisture lingering may mean that clouds may be stubborn to depart.

Looking into next week, there are storm threats Monday into Tuesday, & again around Thursday. At this time, I’m not going to get into details about these threats, other than to say that I believe anything that falls Monday may include mixed precipitation, anything that falls Tuesday would probably be snow, and odds favor snow with the system around Thursday. Some of the longer range guidance show this system having the potential to be a rapidly-intensifying one, but it’s so far away that there is no way to tell the degree of impact it will have in this area.

A quick forecast for the Boston area…

OVERNIGHT: Clear. Low ranging from near 0 in deeper valleys to around 15 in the urban centers. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Sunshine, but high clouds showing up in the southwestern sky by late in the afternoon.   High 30-35. Wind west 5-15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 20-25. Wind west 5-10 mph.

SATURDAY: Cloudy in the morning. Light rain/mix coast, mix/snow inland afternoon. High 33-38. Wind west up to 10 mph early, light variable midday, east up to 10 mph by late in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mix to snow coast with 1 to 3 inches of snow expected. Snow inland with 3 to 5 inches of snow expected and a few locally heavier amounts possible. Low 20-25. Wind northeast to north increasing to 10-20 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 32-37. Wind northwest 5-15 mph.

MONDAY: PM rain showers. Low 28. High 40.

TUESDAY: Snow showers. Low 22. High 30.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 25.

THURSDAY: Chance of snow. Low 15. High 25.

135am

We have now exited the grip of the 2-part storm, but its influence will linger today in the form of icy ground leftover from a freeze after a mix of snow, sleet, & freezing rain (except some plain rain near the coast thanks to a period of above-freezing temperatures Wednesday morning & midday). During Wednesday evening, a final disturbance moved through southeastern New England, kicking off some snow showers and even a thunderstorm that included pea-sized hail (not the same thing as sleet) and graupel (which looks like small snowballs) just south of Boston.

Despite the icy ground, you can try to enjoy a 2-day break in storminess Thursday & Friday, which will be bright & chilly days.

“But wait, there’s more!” The active weather pattern is not done, and the next in the seemingly endless storm parade will be due to arrive on Saturday. Current info suggests that this storm will take a track just southeast of Cape Cod, in a favorable area for significant snow for the Boston area. Timing: Saturday afternoon & evening (about 8 to 10 hours). How much? A moderate snowfall seems likely. This includes most of northeastern, central, and western MA, northern CT & RI, and southern NH. Rain anywhere? Most likely Cape Cod & Islands. Fine-tuning will take place as we get closer to this event, which should be long gone in time to see fair weather for Super Bowl Sunday.

Yet another storm may threaten the area early next week…

840pm

Good evening everybody!

Part 1 of the storm is winding down, and has gone pretty much as expected, with a general 4 to 8 inches of fluffy snow over the majority of MA, northern CT & RI,  & southern NH. Slightly higher amounts (8 to 10 inches) fell in the Springfield MA area. Amounts of mostly under 4 inches were reported in far southeastern MA, southern CT, & southern RI.

Tonight, between the first & second parts of this double-barrel storm, there is some scattered light snow falling, but a bubble of slightly warmer air a few thousand feet off the ground will slide across the region, and may change the light snow to light freezing drizzle for a few hours. This could create a slight glazing on any cleared surfaces, but should not have a major impact.

Part 2 of the winter weather event gets underway by midnight to the west, and by 2 or 3am closer to Boston, as snow moves rapidly in from west to east, the short-lived warm bubble aloft having departed. Yesterday, I was calling for a widespread 6-12 inches of snow/sleet from part 2, with less to the south of the Mass Pike due to more mixing. The general idea is the same, but I am going to tweak the amounts and detail them a bit more, as it’s more apparent where the sleet & freezing rain will be. By 6am Wednesday, expect steady, moderate to at times heavy snow over most of MA & southern NH except sleet & freezing rain over southern CT, southern RI, and southeastern MA. Temperatures may go above freezing over parts of the Cape and Islands by then, for plain rain. As the morning goes on, the line of snow to sleet will progress northward toward the Mass Pike, probably reaching Boston westward along the Pike by 9am, then sliding further north toward Route 2 toward noon. This will be due to warmer air working in above the very cold air still stuck at the surface. There should not be much progress northward from here, and this should hold in place for a few hours in the afternoon.

Temperatures at the surface will remain below freezing in pretty much all areas except the immediate coast from Boston south through Plymouth County, and over much of Cape Cod and the Islands, and over southern RI & coastal CT. These areas will most likely see a period of rain (not freezing while it falls). A band of freezing rain should be occurring just inland of the Plymouth County Coast westward across interior southeastern MA up to about the Mass Pike, and extending west southwest across northern RI & northern and central CT and adjacent far south central MA. Precipitation should be mainly in the form of sleet during the early to mid afternoon north of the Mass Pike to about Route 2, except snow along Route 2 outside 495. Mainly snow is expected toward the MA/NH border, though some sleet will mix in at times here. Snow should dominate in southern NH except the immediate shore which may mix with sleet & freezing rain.

It should be noted that the area that sees the belt of freezing rain may see up to 1/2 inch of ice buildup. This is the region where power outages are most likely.

Precipitation should start to diminish from west to east from late afternoon through evening, and should be pretty much done with by midnight. Colder air working back in will change most sleet/ice/rain areas back to lighter snow, lastly on the Cape, during the last several hours of the storm.

Accumulations expected from part 2… Slushy inch at the end on Cape Cod and the Islands, 1-3 inches Cape Cod Canal to southern and coastal Plymouth County, east central and southern RI, coastal southern CT. 2-4 inches most of CT, northern RI, and most of southeastern MA to the region just south of Boston, mainly south of the Mass Pike, where freezing rain is most likely after the snow falls, 4 to 8 inches from the Mass Pike northward through Route 2. 6-12 inches where it remains mostly snow toward the MA/NH border into southern NH.

An blog update will follow later, after new guidance comes out, updating this storm if necessary, and also looking ahead to the rest of the week…

1130pm

Hi all! Sorry for the lack of posting today. For one, I wasn’t home much until 9pm. Also, the computer and the sites I go to were being very stubborn! Maybe they’re tired of the winter too. Well, I’m not, I know that much, but did you expect to hear any different from me? 😉

After all of the trouble and finally being able to look at everything I want, I’m essentially staying with the overall ideas posted yesterday. The only adjustments are to up the Tuesday snowfall totals very slightly to 4-8 inches across most of MA & southern NH. The Wednesday storm remains very tricky, because of a mix line getting involved. I still feel that freezing rain will be confined to a narrow strip somewhere south of the Mass Pike, with sleet more likely to be mixed in along and up to 10 miles either side of the Mass Pike, with still mainly snow along and north of Route 2.  I still expect a widespread 6-12 inches from the Wednesday storm in terms of snow and sleet accumulation (the majority of it being from snow). There is a bit of a wild card in the southern portion of this 6-12 inch belt depending on the amount of sleet.  Amounts of course will drop off more as you head south and southeastward toward Cape Cod, with only a few inches of snow out on the Cape.

The 2-day storm totals of 8 to 20 inches still seem likely when you start in the region south of the Mass Pike and progress northward to southern NH, with the Boston area falling to the 10-18 inch area for the 2-days. A few spotty amounts of over 20 inches are also still possible mainly from the hills of  Worcester County to southwestern NH.

A quick look ahead… Lingering snow showers are possible Thursday but I don’t expect any additional accumulation. Dry/cold weather is likely Friday, and yet another snow threat seems probable on Saturday. We’ll take a closer look at this tomorrow though updates through early Wednesday will focus mainly on the double punch storm we are about to deal with.

Thanks for your patience waiting for my update tonight!!!

1200am

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 23-28.  Wind northwest 5-15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 10-15. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Snow develops west to east during the morning and continues through the afternoon, accumulating 3 to 6 inches by evening. High 25-30. Wind light northeast.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A few periods of light snow with little additional accumulation. Low 20-25. Wind northeast to east around 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Snow getting steadier & heavier from west to east during the morning. Northwest of  Boston – snow possibly mixed with sleet at times during the afternoon. Immediate Boston area – snow likely mixed with sleet and possibly mixed with freezing rain during the afternoon. South of Boston – snow changing to sleet and freezing rain during the afternoon. High 27-32. Wind northeast 10-20 mph with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Snow/sleet/freezing rain changing back to snow in all areas before tapering off. Potential accumulation of snow/sleet from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening 6 to 12 inches with highest amounts most likely north and west of Boston. Low 20-25. Wind northeast to north 10-20 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a few snow showers possible. High 25-30. Wind north to northwest 15-25 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0-10. High 20-30.

SATURDAY: Chance of snow. Low 10-20. High 20-30.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 0-10. High 20-30.

525pm

Another surge of Arctic air is moving in behind a cold front that crossed the region today. This front brought clouds and a few isolated light snow showers though most areas did not see any snow. High pressure behind this front will build across the region Monday, which will be bright & cold. However, you will notice some high clouds beginning to stream in from the west before Monday afternoon is over. These high clouds are the first warning of a 2-stage storm system that will begin February.

The first part of this system will take place as a frontal boundary sets up to the south of New England and a wave of low pressure rides eastward along it. With plenty of cold air in place, snow will fall with this system over all of MA & southern NH, as well as much of CT & RI. Only the far southern coast of New England may see some mixing with sleet, freezing rain, and rain later Tuesday before the precipitation tapers off. Snowfall amounts from this system should range from around 2 inches in southern NH to 3-6 inches across MA, northern CT, and northern RI. Slightly less snow will fall toward the South Coast where mixing gets involved. There is a chance that a few locations along the Mass Pike and up to 20 miles either side of it could see a spot 7 or 8 inch snow amount. The time frame for the snow for the Boston area will be mid to late morning for the first flakes of snow, peaking during the afternoon, tapering off by evening.

Tuesday night, between parts 1 & 2 of the double-barrel storm, expect just a few snow flurries.

Wednesday, a stronger storm system makes an approach, and there is some question as to where this one tracks. As is often the case, the computer models vary somewhat on their predicted track, with a couple of them taking a further northern route, and a few others keeping the system further south. The further north this low pressure area rides, the greater the chance that sleet, freezing rain, and rain would get involved. I am currently favoring a colder scenario and a storm track a bit further south, with the low center passing near Long Island Wednesday night. Assuming this is how it plays out, expect snow to break out from west to east across the region Wednesday morning, with precipitation lasting through the afternoon & into the evening. A change to sleet & freezing rain will probably occur from south to north at least into the Boston area for a time. From near 495 N&W, I’d only expect a mix with sleet for a while but otherwise primarily snow. Liquid rain (where temperatures go above freezing) should be confined to Cape Cod, the Islands, and the South Coast of CT/RI/MA Wednesday afternoon & evening. A band of icing is likely somewhere over inland southern New England, but it’s a little too early to know where this will set up. Areas that stay all snow or mostly snow have the strong potential to see 6 inches or more from part 2 of this system. Bottom line, the details may not be 100% clear, but it is likely to be a very messy day across the area.

The last of the precipitation should be winding down later Wednesday night, though some lingering moisture and a weak trough may produce a few additional snow showers on Thursday. Either way, Thursday & Friday will show a trend back to drier weather with plenty of sun again by Friday. However, this will be along with a shot of very cold air, once again.

And as this pattern rolls on, there are already signs of another storm chance for next weekend (leaning toward Saturday & snow for timing and precipitation type for right now).

Later tonight another blog will have a quick view text forecast for eastern MA / Boston area. Eventually I will expand this to include other areas and hopefully add graphics as well. 🙂

455pm

A weak clipper storm system is passing by at this time, producing lots of clouds & some scattered snow showers. Most of the snow shower activity last this afternoon has been north and west of Boston. A light snow shower of feathery flakes passed through Woburn about 430pm, but produced no accumulation. A few of the snow showers north of Boston up toward the NH border may dust the roads in the next hour to 2, and a few additional snow showers to the west and eventually the south of Boston may do the same this evening, but don’t expect any travel problems from this.

Sunday & Monday will be 2 dry but cold days to end January. Highest temperatures should be near 30 Sunday, but reinforcing cold air coming in at night will keep high temperatures to the lower 20s for Monday.

Looking ahead… February is coming, and many of you I’m sure are hoping for a break in the harsh weather pattern we’ve been enduring since the end of December. I’m afraid you will have no such luck. It looks like as February begins, we jump right back into the action, with another storm system moving this way for the middle of the week. Some snow is possible on Tuesday, well ahead of the low pressure system, due to overrunning of warmer air moving up over the cold air that will be in place. The main storm system is expected to pass by on Wednesday, probably tracking south of the region, keeping us on the cold side. Enough warm air aloft may get involved to make some of us have to deal with sleet & freezing rain, but it is too early to determine the exact timing and placement of precipitation types. Just keep in mind that we may end up with a midweek mess.

Later in the week, another shot of very cold air is expected behind the departing midweek storm.

We’ll take a closer look at the upcoming storm, the possibilities of more storms beyond that one, and break down the details of the week ahead in tomorrow’s blog.

Have a safe remainder of the weekend!

400pm

I’d like to write a little bit about the next significant storm threat, which seems to be lining up for the middle of next week. For much of this winter we have been in a blocking pattern, resulting from a strong high pressure system over or near Greenland, which has been forcing the jet stream to drop from Canada into the US, with a trough of low pressure in the eastern US often resulting in cold air and snowstorms from the South to the Midwest to the Northeast. We’ve seen plenty of that since Christmas.

The overal l pattern does not appear to be changing that much, however there are some signs that the blocking pattern may relax to coincide with the next storm threat. What does this mean? Well, the most reliable longer range computer model this winter, the ECMWF (or, the Euro as I & others affectionately call it), is responding to this possible break in the blocking pattern by indicating the storm next week may take a track further west than many of the recent ones have. This would allow warmer air to move up the East Coast and bring a better chance of rain versus snow. However, one of the other longer range models does not relax the blocking as much, and therefore keeps it colder, showing a storm track more to the east, resulting in a colder and snowier result for much of New England. So early on, you can see what kinds of issues a meteorologist faces when thinking about upcoming weather.

Logic says it should be the Euro model that will have this handled better, because it’s done well most of the winter. But just because a model has done well doesn’t mean it will hit everything. So you have to look for clues that may tip you off that the model may be making an error.  Just the simple fact we’ve been so cold and have such a deep snowcover can mean that computer models can make errors, and forecast warmer conditions than will occur. So that will be one factor to consider. Also, the model that is giving the colder solution was one that did a fairly decent job predicting the details of the most recent big storm, so there is some pull to want to buy what it says. Confused yet? So am I…

But, having seen these conflicts before, I will wait a while before I start to come up with solid ideas. But a very early guess is that the truth lies somewhere in between. And we may see a storm that tries to stay further west, only to redevelop on the coast. If pressed to a forecast of rain vs. snow right now for next week, I’d have a slight leaning of white versus wet. Time will tell. And for me, this will be fun to follow, especially since I’m looking to break out of a forecasting slump!

700am

So maybe the storm threw me a curveball, but one thing I’m not misunderstanding is that we have no changes in the overall pattern for the near future… We will see a break from major storms, however, for several days. Two much weaker systems, “Alberta Clippers”, will move rapidly eastward through the area. The first one will cross the area late Friday with scattered mainly light snow showers. Little accumulation is expected from this feature. The second clipper will traverse our area on Saturday afternoon & evening. This one, being slightly stronger, may produce localized coating to 1 inch snow amounts.

Sunday will be mostly dry but a cold front crossing the region may produce a few isolated snow showers or snow squalls. This front will bring another very cold airmass into the region for the last day of January on Monday, though it still does not look as cold as the one from a week before.

Looking ahead to the first few days of February, more cold seems a certainty, with another snow threat as well. More about this in the next blog…

1010pm

Mother Nature is having fun messing with me on this one. Frustrating. But I still love weather and trying to forecast it.

So, part 1 of storm came in earlier than expected and gave a bit more than I thought. Granted, it was only up to about an inch, but I didn’t think we’d see more than flakes in the air around Boston from that part.

So now in comes part 2. It is a powerful upper level system (thunderstorms in the Mid Atlantic indicate the power of this system). As it tracks east northeast, passing south of New England overnight, it will toss its precipitation shield into southern New England (this is happening now).  With the entire area colder than originally forecast, mixing/rain has been limited to mainly Cape Cod and this will all go back to snow as colder air gets drawn into the system. So most of the region from southern NH through MA/CT/RI will see snow overnight. The heaviest bands of snow are expected to be along and south of the Mass Pike for the most part, though a few will sneak up to the nort as well.

When it’s all done expect updated snowfall totals to come in this way: 1-3 inches in southern NH, 3-6 inches with spotty 7 to 8 inch amounts in northern MA, though lighter well to the northwest, and 6-12 inches in a wide swath of CT/RI, and southeastern MA up to about Boston, including to near the cape Cod Canal. Slighty lesser amounts will occur further east on Cape Cod.

So it’s more snow than I forecast originally, though not a tremendous amount more. Still, the timing is just right, or wrong depending on your perspective, to cause alot of delays and cancellations for schools.

This system is still expected to move right along and the snow will be over in most places near or shortly after sunrise, with fairly rapid clearing from west to east following. Most of the region should have the sun out by mid morning, and rest of the day Thursday will be bright & chilly.

Looking ahead, a weak disturbance will bring lots of clouds and perhaps a few snow flurries Friday. Another low pressure area will cross southern New England late Saturday with some light snow. Clearing is expected Sunday with dry weather lasting through Monday as January comes to a close. Colder weather is expected at the end of the weekend and the start of next week, but it does not look as cold as the past very cold airmass early this week.

1250am

Once we get by the storm system of Wednesday night, what can we expected Thursday through Monday, the last 5 days of the month?

High pressure will rapidly build across the region on Thursday, during the day, with plenty of sunshine, a few clouds, and a high temperature around 30. Colder air will move in Thursday night, and high temps on Friday will probably stay in the 20s. There will also be more clouds on Friday as a disturbance travels from the Great Lakes eastward across New England. This disturbance may produce a few snow showers but should not produce any significant snow.

Over the weekend, another, slightly stronger, low pressure area will come across the Great Lakes and head across New England. Latest indications are that this area of low pressure will pass over far southern New England or just south of New England, setting the stage for a period of snow sometime Saturday or Saturday night. It’s early, but some minor accumulations seem possible with this. Clearing should move in during Sunday as this low moves away.

Another Arctic airmass is expected to head into the region from Canada later Sunday & Monday, and the last day of January may be a bright but very cold day, with high temperatures not reaching 20. At this early stage it does not look like as cold an airmass as what went through here during the last couple days, but should be significantly cold regardless.

11:00pm

Hi all!

This blog will be short, because I don’t need to go over the technical aspects of the upcoming storm. My reasoning has not changed, so it would just be a re-run. 😉

I’ll just get to the time frame and the snow amounts, and here it is…

Snow starts in Boston between 6pm & 9pm, a bit earlier to the south, later to the north. The reason for the 3  hour window of start time is that the air above us will be very dry and it will take some time for the snow, which will be falling above us for several hours, to stop evaporating into the dry air and start reaching the ground. The heaviest snow will occur sometime between midnight & 6am Thursday. After this we should see a rapid ending to the snow from southwest to northeast during the morning commute Thursday.

Snow amounts should be 2-5 inches from southern NH southward to the northern part of the 128 belt (just north of Boston), and 5-9 inches from Boston southward into Plymouth County. I still think that amounts of 8 or 9 inches will not be that common, but are certainly possible, in those areas. Further south, except 4-7 inches near the Cape Cod Canal and dropping off to 2-4 inches over the Cape except 1-3 inches on the outer Cape, which will mix with and probably change to rain for a time for the first half of the precipitation event.

Another blog will be posted in a while with an outlook for the last 5 days of January. This includes a snow threat Saturday and a potentially very cold Monday.