DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 9-13)

Upper level low pressure dominates our weather again the next couple days. A surprise batch of showers and thunderstorms popped up and moved across far southeastern areas / Cape Cod around dawn, and is moving off. I’m not expecting really anything else in the way of shower activity today though, just some areas of cloudiness to share the sky with the sun. A cold front will cross the region this evening with perhaps a quick shower in southern NH and northern MA, and reinforce a cool air mass for Thursday. High pressure slides south of our region and allows it to moderate Friday and Saturday, before another cold front knocks the temps back down for Sunday, just in time for a wave of low pressure to ride along it and bring clouds and a chance of some rainfall to the region for the middle day of the holiday weekend.

TODAY: Sunrise showers/t-storms exit Cape Cod otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 59-66. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. An evening shower possible southern NH / northern MA. Lows 41-48. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42 except milder in urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, diminishing and becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Clouding over. Chance of rain. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 14-18)

Monday Holiday October 14 features a lingering shower otherwise mainly dry, breezy, cool weather. High pressure dominates with dry, cool weather followed by moderation next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 19-23)

Watching October 19-20 for potential unsettled weather, otherwise pattern is dry and overall seasonable though with variable temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 8-12)

Upper level low pressure is the main driver of the weather the next few days, but that doesn’t mean unsettled weather. In this case, it means mostly fair weather, just some clouds from time to time, and a secondary cold front which will cross the region late Wednesday to reinforce the cooler air from Canada that’s now taking over behind yesterday’s unsettled weather. By Friday, high pressure slides over the region with a very nice and slightly milder day, and this high heads offshore with continued fair weather and a further warm-up for Saturday, the first day of a (for many) 3-day weekend.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Areas of frost inland lower elevations. Lows 38-45 except colder in some inland lower elevations and milder in urban centers. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 59-66. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW>

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42 except milder in urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 13-17)

Quicker-moving features anticipated now bringing unsettled weather threat in the October 13-14 time frame, the middle and end of the holiday weekend. Will refine this outlook in coming updates. Fair, cooler middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 18-22)

Watching October 18-19 for potential unsettled weather, otherwise pattern is dry and overall seasonable though with variable temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 7-11)

A cold front crosses the region from west to east today with a round of showers, fairly good coverage but not too heavy with rainfall amounts mostly under 1/2 inch. A few areas could see an embedded downpour, even a thunderstorm, and receive over 1/2 inch, but this will be the exception rather than the rule. The trend for showers ending and clouds breaking will develop from west to east during mid to late afternoon after the front passes. A cooler westerly to northwesterly air flow arrives tonight through Tuesday as a Canadian air mass arrives and brings the true feel of fall. A high pressure bubble moves across the region Tuesday night and early Wednesday, providing an opportunity for radiational cooling the the first frost for many interior areas (away from coastal areas and urban centers). With an upper level trough driving the weather pattern, and a secondary cold front to pass by Wednesday night / early Thursday, some clouds move through and a more active breeze should prevent any frost formation during that period, but I suspect any shower activity will stay north of our area as the air mass will be very dry both ahead of and behind that front. Thursday will be the coolest day of the week – cool air combined with a continued active breeze. Friday will see moderation with plenty of sun and less wind, though it will be quite chilly to start the day before a nice temperature recovery occurs.

TODAY: A hint of sun eastern areas at sunrise and breaks of sun late-day favoring areas west of I-95, otherwise mainly cloudy with episodes of rain showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W from west to east during midday and afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Areas of frost inland lower elevations. Lows 38-45 except colder in some inland lower elevations and milder in urban centers. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny through midday. Some clouds arrive west to east later. Highs 59-66. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW>

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42 except milder in urban centers. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 12-16)

Holiday Weekend Outlook: Saturday October 12 looks dry and mild with a west wind and high pressure ridge building. Sunday October 13 looks rain-free but clouds may show up ahead of the next trough. Monday October 14 shows indications of unsettled weather with a trough bringing a rain chance. Fair and cooler weather returns later in the period behind that.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 17-21)

A mid period interruption of unsettled weather is a potential with fair weather otherwise continuing its dominance. Temperatures will be variable but not all that far from what would be expected overall.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)

High pressure brings fair weather today but its center to our north allows a low level air flow from the northeast, which will bring some ocean clouds into coastal areas, most especially Cape Cod, limiting the sun at times. This afternoon, you’ll notice some high level clouds starting to move in from the west and northwest ahead of an approaching trough. A surface low associated with this feature will pass to our north on Monday, dragging its warm front quietly through in the pre-dawn hours, but a more productive cold front follows this from west to east across the region during Monday. While shower activity will be widespread, rainfall amounts will likely be unimpressive, with under 1/2 inch of rain expected for most of the region. A few embedded heavier showers could push a few areas over 1/2 inch of rain. Overall, this will be a non-beneficial event to battle the building abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions now observed in much of southern New England, and beyond this, another dry stretch looms. Other than an isolated spot afternoon shower from an upper level disturbance passing by on Wednesday, expect dry weather and below normal temperatures Tuesday through midweek as a polar airmass from Canada moves in. There will be frost potential away from urban and immediate coastal areas this week, the best potential for it being Wednesday morning with a combination of light wind and clear sky allowing the best radiational cooling. There may be too much wind Thursday morning for a legitimate shot other than the lowest elevation locations.

TODAY: Sunshine but interrupted by coastal clouds especially Cape Cod. Highs 62-69, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 54-61. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain showers. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind variable becoming NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 except colder in some inland lower elevations and milder in urban centers. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A slight chance of a passing light rain shower mainly late-day. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Some up and down temps but the overall trend is near to below normal. Two troughs / frontal systems should pass by, one around the October 12-13 weekend with limited moisture and rain shower chances – probably just dry, and a second one in the October 14-15 window with a better rain shower chance. Our weather pattern is not conducive to bringing beneficial moisture from the tropics up here.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)

Again no major changes. Some of the medium range guidance has hinted at a larger scale trough and storm system making its way into the East at some point but this doesn’t immediately mean major changes here. We may see a stronger warm up / cool down cycle with one significant rain event during the transition, but this is a long way out and many days to monitor and fine-tune that part of the outlook.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 5-9)

Our mild pattern is on its way out, but will take a couple days to fully replace. A weak cold front moving through the region first thing this morning brings a few rain showers (even a few morning rainbows – I just photographed one in Woburn!), and then it clears out and we have a mild day ahead with plenty of midday and afternoon sunshine! High pressure builds north of the area Sunday, and this will result in an onshore air flow Sunday which will likely drive some ocean stratus into at least coastal areas, and maybe some distance inland as well, robbing the region of potential sun. At the same time, later in the day, high and mid level clouds will be increasing from the west ahead of an approaching low pressure trough. This trough will arrive late at night and be with us Monday. A frontal boundary will move across the region but a wave of low pressure forming on it will prolong the unsettled weather much of the day. Despite a longer episode of cloudiness and potential rain showers, the rainfall amounts don’t look very impressive from that system. We could use more beneficial rain to battle the building abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions in the region. Beneficial rain or not, we will get a solid shot of chilly air behind that system heading toward the middle of next week.

TODAY: Clouds and scattered rain showers eastern areas into mid morning, then sun returns west to east. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine, becoming limited by midday. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 55-62. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of rain showers. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH becoming variable.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind variable becoming NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A slight chance of a passing light rain shower. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Cool, dry weather through mid period. A later-period warm up may lead to a rain shower chance as the next trough moves into the region end of period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 15-19)

No outlook changes. Brief unsettled weather threats in a predominantly dry weather pattern. Temperatures variable but averaging below normal with better chance of additional frosts and first freeze for some locations.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 4-8)

A changing weather pattern means we say goodbye to our current mild stretch soon in favor of a cooler regime. But before that we have a few more days of above normal temperatures. Today will be the warmest of the next 3. A weak cold front will knock it down only slightly for the weekend as it passes by early Saturday with a minimal rain shower threat, so other than that at the very start, we’re in for a fair and mild weekend. Clouds return later Sunday though ahead of a stronger cold front, which brings a better rain shower chance mainly the first half of Monday, and a turn to significantly cooler weather by later Monday through Tuesday.

TODAY: Patchy radiation fog early, otherwise sun filtered through high clouds. Highs 71-78. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Thicker clouds arrive west to east. A rain shower chance toward dawn. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Clouds and a rain shower chance first thing in the morning eastern areas, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny except some eastern coastal clouds possible. Highs 65-72. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 55-62. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely in the morning. Clouds break for sun at times afternoon. Highs 63-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 43-50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 9-13)

Cool northwest flow and other than a potential diurnal pop up rain shower October 9 and or 10 it looks dry for this period. Some areas away from urban locations and the coastline can see their first frost before next week ends.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 14-18)

Brief unsettled weather threats in a predominantly dry weather pattern. Temperatures variable but averaging below normal with better chance of additional frosts and first freeze for some locations.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 3-7)

High pressure will be in control of the weather most of the time through the weekend, with the only interruption being a rain shower chance early Saturday from a passing cold front. This front will replace the warmer air of the next couple days with slightly less warm air during the weekend. Another cold front will pass by early Monday with upper level low pressure trailing it, so Monday will feature a better shot at wet weather early, albeit fairly brief as it stands now, but the chance of an additional shower popping up with a cold pool of air arriving aloft.

TODAY: Patchy radiation fog early, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 68-75. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 51-58. Wind S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of rain showers until midday, then mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows 55-62. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely in the morning. Variably cloudy with an additional rain shower possible in the afternoon. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 8-12)

Passing disturbance brings a brief rain shower chance around October 10, otherwise generally dry weather and below normal temperatures are expected with an often northwesterly air flow out of Canada.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 13-17)

Brief unsettled weather threats in a predominantly dry weather pattern. Increasing chances of significant chilly air from Canada and first frosts / freezes in portions of the region.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 2-6)

Our weather will trend milder the next few days. This happens even with a cold front moving into and across the region later today, because as this front does this, it’s losing definition due to lack of contrast between the air mass ahead of it, of marine origin, and the air mass behind it, modified polar air. The only thing the front is going to do is add some additional mid and high level clouds to the sky from west to east later, as we finally see the low level clouds from the ocean diminish while we lose the day’s long easterly air flow. High pressure will control the weather Thursday and Friday with a warmer southerly air flow, though not strong. A cold front will swing through the region during the first 12 hours of Saturday, bringing a rain shower threat for a brief period of time as it passes each location. Much of (and in some areas all of) Saturday will be rain-free, with more sun in the afternoon than in the morning. High pressure means a stellar Sunday, but clouds will start moving in late ahead of the next disturbance.

TODAY: Variably cloudy – most sunshine eastern half of region afternoon. Highs 65-72. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to S.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy radiation fog. Lows 48-55. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 51-58. Wind S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers through midday. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 7-11)

Next disturbance brings a rain shower chance October 7. Fair weather but a shot of much cooler air follows this October 8-9. Next disturbance brings a rain shower chance October 10 before fair weather returns at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 12-16)

Brief unsettled weather threats in a predominantly dry weather pattern. Increasing chances of significant chilly air from Canada and first frosts / freezes in portions of the region.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 1-5)

October is here, and the weather pattern is still basically the same – blocking – but there are signs of it finally breaking down in the coming days. First, we stay in a light easterly air flow today which shifts to southerly Wednesday as we lose the influence of the combo of high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south and a trough and frontal boundary move in from the west Wednesday. This may produce a rain shower, but we stay generally rain-free these days, as well as Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds in, then sinks to the south. This will initiate a warm up. Saturday, a passing cold front may bring a few rain showers, but timing looks early – the chance existing through midday, and no “wash-out” weather.

TODAY: Foggy areas early, otherwise mainly cloudy. Highs 62-69. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog in lowest elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers through midday. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 6-10)

Quasi-zonal pattern – mostly westerly flow with weak blocking holding on. High pressure brings fair weather many of these days. Interruptions October 7 and possibly October 10 with unsettled weather systems.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 11-15)

Mostly zonal pattern. Brief shower threats in an otherwise mostly dry pattern. A significant visit of chilly air from Canada becomes more likely.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

The same pattern we had over the weekend holds today as we say bye to September and Tuesday as we welcome October, and that is high pressure to the north – stretch out low pressure to the south, and generally light easterly flow here, with dry weather, but plenty of clouds and limited sun, though we will see more sunshine today than we are likely to see on Tuesday. This pattern will break down at midweek. A cold front will move through from west to east late Wednesday, but only with limited rain shower threat as it won’t have a lot of moisture to work with. High pressure builds in with dry and seasonable weather Thursday, followed by a Friday warm-up.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 66-73. Wind NE to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind E under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Considerably cloudy. Highs 62-69. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog in lowest elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 5-9)

Frontal system / trough moves through early in the October 5-6 weekend with a rain shower threat followed by dry and seasonable weather. Another disturbance brings a rain shower chance October 7 before fair weather returns, as a west to east flow becomes more established. Temperatures variable but no extremes indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 10-14)

Brief interruptions from passing disturbances in an otherwise mostly dry pattern with a westerly flow more dominant. No temperature extremes.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Not really any changes to write about after yesterday’s forecast update. High pressure to the north and low pressure to the south remain in place as the pattern remains in a blocking configuration. This puts us in a light flow of air off the Atlantic and while an abundance of ocean stratus dominate the lower levels, above that are mid and high level clouds associated with what was Hurricane Helene. The surface low from that system remains quasi-stationary in the Ohio Valley / Tennessee Valley region but will drift eastward the next few days. Our weather here doesn’t change much through Monday from the initial set-up described above. By Tuesday and Wednesday, high pressure gives way to a trough from the west. Most of the moisture from the low pressure area to the south will stay south of New England and we’ll just see a round of showers Wednesday from a frontal system coming through the region. This exits and high pressure builds back in by Thursday with fair, seasonable early autumn weather.

TODAY / TONIGHT / MONDAY / MONDAY NIGHT: Considerably cloudy. Partial sun possible daytimes. Patchy ground fog possible nighttime hours. Highs 64-71. Lows 50-57. Wind often E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Weakening blocking / quasi-zonal flow. High pressure shifts east for a fair, milder October 4. Quick moving trough brings a rain shower chance October 5. Dry October 6. Unsettled weather chance returns at the end of the period. Some up and down temps but no extremes indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 9-13)

Brief interruptions from passing disturbances in an otherwise mostly dry pattern with a westerly flow more dominant. No temperature extremes.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

The next 3 days, the final 3 days of September, we will have our weather controlled by high pressure and low pressure. Elaboration follows. Our sensible weather, or “sense-able” conditions, what we can feel, will be controlled by high pressure to our north, which provides dry weather, comfortable air, and a light onshore (easterly air flow). Our visible weather, or the sky condition, will be controlled by the low pressure area that was once Hurricane Helene – a storm that brought devastating flooding to parts of the southeastern US, but now spins over the lower Ohio Valley as a remnant low, partially trapped in the ongoing blocking pattern. While the surface feature is spinning around out there, mid and upper level winds have peeled a lot of the remaining moisture off the system and blown it eastward while its expansion and momentum carried it northward as well. For our region, what this resulted in was a high cloud shield that overspread the sky Friday afternoon and a continuation of high (and some middle) clouds across the sky often in abundance the next few days. But much of the time during the day these clouds will be thin enough to allow some sunshine, or even provide a nice sunrise such as much of the region saw just a short while before I started writing this update. Here lies another example of the range of conditions one weather system can bring – from devastating flooding to picturesque sunrise. This is nature – brutality and beauty, often occurring simultaneously. My thoughts are with the storm’s victims. For our area, once we get through these 3 fairly similar weather days, and welcome October, we will see a turn to more unsettled weather for the final 2 days of this forecast period which are also the first 2 days of the new month. Tuesday, clouds thicken ahead of a trough from the west and moisture from the south – some of this being the “remainder of the remains” of Helene. This brings us a chance of some wet weather Tuesday night and Wednesday as low pressure tracks to our south and a cold front cruises by from the west. At days 4 & 5 in the forecast I still have to sort out some details with this, but my initial feeling is that the bulk of the moisture from the redevelopment of Helene’s remnant low will track just to our south while the cold front brings a brief period of wet weather, focused on Wednesday.

TODAY: Filtered / dimmed sun through high clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High clouds cover the sky. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind NE diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Filtered / dimmed sun through high clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: High clouds hang on. Patchy radiation fog. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 66-73. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain, favoring the South Coast. Lows 55-62. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 63-70. Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH, shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 3-7)

Weakening blocking / quasi-zonal flow. High pressure brings fair, cooler weather October 3 and a milder October 4. Quick-moving front brings brief shower chance October 5. Another high pressure brings dry weather back after that but if systems move quickly enough the next shower threat may already arrive before the end of the period around October 7.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 8-12)

A zonal flow pattern should be more established at this point with fair weather sandwiching a mid-period unsettled interlude with a passing trough. We’ll be watching for the first frost for some areas in this time frame.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

A cold front has pushed through and the last of any showers associated with it near the South Coast come to an end early today. The cloud canopy associated with the front is a little slower to depart and will do so gradually from northwest to southeast during this morning and midday, and just as it exits, a shield of high clouds on the northern fringes of Helene will start to appear in our sky from south to north. This cloud shield will dim the sun Saturday and Sunday, and a northeasterly air flow can also push a few lower clouds in from the ocean. Other than those clouds to contend with, the next several days will be rather nice around here with dry, pleasant conditions, in stark contrast to the major issues created by Hurricane Helene in the southeastern US. Thankfully a blocking pattern in place prevents that storm from coming right up here in any formidable fashion. Yes, we need rain still, but an open pattern could have allowed such a storm with already a lot of forward speed to maintain some decent strength and cross the Southeast and come up the coast. Not the case here. The remnant low sits over the lower Ohio Valley this weekend and some of the remnant moisture peels off to the east and stays well south of New England while high pressure to our north keeps us dry through Monday. It is on Tuesday when things start to move a little more, and a mid latitude trough starts to approach from the west. Our next shot at wet weather from this system, and some of the remaining moisture formerly associated with Helene to the south, comes as this system sends moisture at us from the west and south later Tuesday.

TODAY: Any early showers end South Coast, and clouds give way to sun northwest to southeast. Highs 64-71. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High clouds increasing south to north. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered / dimmed sun through high clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: High clouds cover the sky. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind NE diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Filtered / dimmed sun through high clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy radiation fog. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear except patchy radiation fog in low elevation locations. Lows 46-53. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain chance late. Highs 65-72. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 2-6)

Wet weather chance October 2 with passing trough. Mostly dry pattern follows this with only a minor shower threat around October 5 from a front moving through.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 7-11)

Pattern looks fairly dry with a slow transition to a more zonal flow. Variable temperatures – might be a significant cool shot and frost chances.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Today is our most unsettled day this week with some beneficial showers to be had as a warm front scoots through this morning then a cold front follows it this afternoon and evening, parented by a low pressure wave passing just north of the region. Some of the rainfall associated with the system can be on the heavy side, and it’ll be just unstable enough that embedded thunderstorms are also possible. Keep all this in mind when traveling about today, especially this afternoon and evening. High pressure to the north builds in Friday and holds through the weekend into Monday. This system will clear the region out tomorrow, though some cloudiness and very early morning showers can linger closer to the South Coast. Hurricane Helene, a devastating storm battering the eastern Gulf of Mexico and parts of the southeastern US, will spread the northern portion of its cloud shield into our region Friday night into the weekend, but the blocking high will keep the rain well away from our region into early next week.

TODAY: Cloudy. Showers arriving and becoming more frequent during the day, including the chance of some downpours and embedded thunder later. Highs 61-68. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the evening. Lingering showers mostly south of I-90 overnight. Areas of fog developing. Lows 53-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Early morning showers exit the South Coast as clouds diminish. Sun and passing clouds mid morning on. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: High clouds increasing south to north. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered / dimmed sun. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: High clouds decrease north to south. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind NE diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Filtered to brighter sun. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy radiation fog. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind variable to E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 1-5)

A trough from the west delivers a good shower / rain chance later October 1 into October 2, and a front late in the period brings another shower chance. Variable temperatures – no extremes.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 6-10)

Pattern looks fairly dry with a slow transition to a more zonal flow. Variable temperatures – might be a significant cool shot included.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

The blocking pattern in place stays in place through this forecast period. High pressure at the surface is far enough north that an east to southeast flow off the ocean drives broken marine layer clouds into our region while a trough approaching from the west spreads its high to mid level clouds in. Summation: A generally cloudy day today. Low pressure associated with the approaching upper trough is expected to track just north of the region on Thursday. Its warm front will bring a bout of rain early morning to midday Thursday, and its cold front will likely bring a briefer period of moderate to heavy showers and possible thunderstorms, with a brief break in between. This system will move off to the east southeast Thursday night and early Friday with a clearing trend will take place, and high pressure again builds to the north of the region. With this we see a return of dry weather Friday and over the weekend. Meanwhile, strengthening Tropical Storm Helene, soon to be a hurricane, will track northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and its landfall point is most likely on the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle. Big trouble for that region with rain, wind, and coastal storm surge. Thankfully it appears the core of that hurricane will come ashore in a relatively sparsely populated area, lessening the property impact aspect. Often when we see these systems down there, we hear from their remnants eventually. We will, and we won’t. Huh? What does that mean? It means this. Friday night and Saturday the cloud shield will make it into our sky. It remains to be seen how thick it will get in terms of a limiting factor for Saturday sunshine, but I’ll take a look at that as we get closer to it. Blocking high pressure will keep the rainfall from the system far to our south, hence the dry forecast.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 62-69. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives west to east overnight. Patchy fog forming. Lows 53-60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely until mid afternoon, tapering west to east. Patchy fog. Highs 61-68. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Moderate to heavy showers and possible embedded thunder moving northwest to southeast across the region. Areas of fog. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Early morning showers exit the South Coast as clouds diminish. Sun and passing clouds mid morning on. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: High clouds increasing south to north. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 46-53. Wind N diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered / dimmed sun. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: High clouds decrease north to south. Ground fog patches forming in lower elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind NE diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Filtered to brighter sun. Highs 62-69. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

Blocking high pressure is expected to keep tropical moisture to our south early in the period. Some remnants of that moisture combined with a trough from the west will bring a brief period of unsettled weather in the October 1-2 time window before fair weather returns. Temperatures variable, moderating early in the period, cooling late period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-9)

A early-period unsettled interlude as the pattern shifts from blocking to quasi-zonal (more west to east flow). No temperature extremes expected.