DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 11-15)

A quiet pattern is in place regarding our weather here well into the coming week, with high pressure in control most of the time. Daily wind direction will be largely determined by high pressure center positioning. The only potential interruptions to completely dry weather are isolated shower chances Monday from a trough passing by and Thursday from a very weak disturbance between 2 high pressure areas. As far as the visibility for Perseid Meteor Shower viewing, it looks great tonight and tomorrow night, though there may be a few clouds from time to time. We won’t have the moon around after midnight, which is when you can see up to 50+ meteors per hour in ideal viewing locations – that is, minimal light pollution. Good luck if you plan to be out there!

TODAY: Sunny morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Some high altitude smoke mainly South Coast this morning. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point sub-60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A possible shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Low risk of small hail in any heavier showers. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Dew point under 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Dew lower to middle 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point in 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of an isolated shower. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 16-20)

There is disagreement in medium range guidance on all kinds of things, from the movement and timing of a trough approaching from the west next weekend to the potential track of an offshore tropical system that looks like it will develop and move into the Caribbean during the next several days. Sensible weather for our region can be impacted by these systems, the latter much more likely than the former. So while this is a low confidence forecast, as of today I lean toward high pressure keeping us fair August 16-17, and a trough from the west increasing the humidity and shower chances August 18-20, while leaning toward ensemble indications of any tropical activity staying well offshore of the East Coast. Also, there’s no major heat indicated.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 21-25)

Fairly quiet pattern overall – weak weather systems may pass by with a shower threat otherwise high pressure and a general weak westerly flow dominate with mostly fair weather and no prolonged major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 10-14)

We enter mid August and are about to go into a quieter weather pattern. The last of the remains of what was once Hurricane / Tropical Storm Debby exits our region this morning with the last of the showers / downpours exiting Cape Ann and the NH Seacoast by 8:30 a.m. and Cape Cod by late morning. Otherwise we have fair weather to enjoy for this weekend. The warmest day will be today, which starts humid then dries out. Sunday will feature seasonably mild air with lower humidity. You’ll notice a hazy look to the sky both today and Sunday, and this is from a couple of surges of high altitude wildfire smoke that will be moving through the region. It does appear that the smoke will thin out Sunday evening to improve the viewing conditions for the Perseid meteor shower, which peaks after midnight Sunday night / Monday morning. A trough of low pressure swings through the region and may kick off a few showers on Monday, before we return to fair and pleasant weather heading toward midweek as a westerly air flow dominates.

TODAY: Clouds / showers exit eastern areas early morning (north) to mid morning (south), then sunshine with passing clouds remainder of the day. High altitude smoke. Highs 81-88. Dew point lowers into and through the 60s, into the upper 50s. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH with a few higher gusts, relaxing during the day.

TONIGHT: High altitude smoke thins with a clear sky otherwise. Lows 60-67. Dew point sub-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Additional high altitude smoke. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point sub-60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A possible shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A possible shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Lows 58-65. Dew point under 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Dew point in 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point in 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 15-19)

Fair/dry weather dominates through mid period before humidity and pop up shower/t-storm chances increase late period. No significant heat as we are in a pattern that features a westerly flow and a weak trough.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 20-24)

Weak trough / westerly flow continues, with moderate temperatures and a few shower chances. No major heat indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 9-13)

The weather system that was once Debby will push through the region during the next 24 hours (by early Saturday morning). This results in a humid and unsettled day today, although rain coverage will not be that high until later tonight when a final band of widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms pushes through with a trailing front from the low center as it passes by to our northwest and north. Prior to that we’ll have isolated to scattered showers, though a few can be heavy, and we’ll also see a pretty decent fog blanket to start the day today before that thins out and dissipates with some increase in wind. Any breaks of sun today will be limited and most likely to occur at some point this afternoon over eastern MA and RI. Of note, there’s a little bit of wind shear available in the lower levels of the atmosphere tonight as the heavier band of showers pushes through, and while the chance is better west of the WHW forecast area, there is a tiny shot at an isolated brief and relatively weak tornado in any stronger cell. All of the unsettled weather pushes offshore right about dawn on Saturday, setting our region up for a great summer weekend. It’ll take several hours for the wet ground to dry out Saturday, otherwise it’s to be a very nice day, warm with gradually lowering humidity and a nice breeze as well. Sunday’s weather will be pleasantly warm with low humidity and a sun/cloud mix. Heading into early next week, there’s a slight change in the forecast. A disturbance I was eyeing for the potential for a shower or thunderstorm Tuesday is going to be 24 hours faster than I thought a couple days ago, bringing that shower and thunderstorm chance Monday, with fair weather returning Tuesday.

TODAY: Foggy areas through mid morning, otherwise mostly cloudy with isolated to scattered showers including a few potential downpours. Highs 72-79 but may be a little cooler immediate South Coast and Cape Cod areas. Dew point 65+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH, increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers early-mid evening, more widespread showers and possible thunderstorms late evening and overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY: Clouds and showers linger Cape Cod into mid morning, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with a trend for more sun. Highs 80-87. Dew point lowers through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point sub-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point sub-60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A possible shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A possible shower or thunderstorm in the evening. Lows 58-65. Dew point under 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point in 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 14-18)

Fair / dry weather midweek next week with a westerly air flow dominating. A little more troughing from the Great Lakes to the Northeast keeps major heat away but may add a few showers to the pattern later in the week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 19-23)

Weak trough / westerly flow continues, with moderate temperatures and a few shower chances. No major heat indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 8-12)

Since what was Debby is now a regular low pressure area, it will act very much like one as it passes through the Northeast in the way it impacts our weather today through Saturday. What’s become a warm front will approach today and tonight with an increase in clouds from south to north (more sun north today as dry air holds the clouds at bay for several hours), and a few showers push northward into the region, but most of them struggle to survive drier air in place, with most of them occurring tonight. Friday, we find ourselves in the warm sector with a muggy flow of warmer air on a southeast to south wind, along with scattered showers. The low center passes west and north of our region Friday night and early Saturday, dragging a cold front through here with a more solid band of showers and possible thunderstorms Friday night to pre-dawn Saturday. This is when the heaviest rain will occur, but it will be so brief in duration that most amounts will fall shy of 1 inch, and it will move so quickly out of here that we have a great weekend ahead with a westerly air flow dominating. In typical summertime fashion, there’s not a lot of cooling to take place right behind what is now a “cold front”, so Saturday will be quite a warm day, but with lowering humidity. Sunday will be a pleasant summer day, warm, not humid, with sun but some fair weather clouds popping up during the day. Monday’s weather looks fair with a continued dry westerly flow.

TODAY: Most sun north and less sun south much of day, before clouds spread north later. Sprinkles of light rain mainly west of Boston late day. Highs 73-80, warmest inland. Dew point near 60. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers. Patchy fog forms. Lows 63-70. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers with scattered downpours too. Fog patches early. Highs 72-79. Dew point rising over 70. Wind SE to S increasing to 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially in coastal locations.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers becoming more widespread including downpours and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73 with matching dew points. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY: Cloud/sun mix morning. Sunny afternoon. Highs 80-87. Dew point slowly lowering through 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, diminishing later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point sub-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point sub-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Interior lower elevation fog patches. Lows 57-64. Dew point sub-60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84. Dew point sub-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 13-17)

Next week’s large scale pattern is weak trough Northeast with westerly flow aloft. Other than a weak disturbance passing by about August 13 with a possible shower, it is dry pattern with near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 18-22)

Temperatures somewhat variable but close to normal for the period. A couple shower / thunderstorm episodes possible but the overall pattern looks fairly quiet.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 7-11)

Some quick weather changes are coming up for us over the next several days, and while there is some unsettled weather involved in that, there will also be periods of much nicer weather, so remember not to focus on the rain drops icon that shows up on your weather app that tries to fool you into thinking it’s going to rain every day forever. 😉 This is how it really unfolds in our region. First, the wave of low pressure that delivered a swath of decent rain to the region overnight departs this morning and midday, with a drying trend during the day. The most complete drying will take place north of I-90 where some sunshine will appear midday and afternoon. A bubble of high pressure across southeastern Canada will keep our weather fair into Thursday, but during the day we’ll see an advance of high to mid level clouds associated with the moisture from what was formerly Debby. This system is already post tropical, but has not been declared post tropical by NHC yet. Regardless, it still contains a decent amount of moisture and we’ll hear from some of it, but the track of the system is going to take the bulk of that to our west on Friday, with just tropical showers in our region, following a broken band of rain Thursday night which leads much more humid air back into the region. One final band of heavier showers and possible thunderstorms will then cross the region Friday night and early Saturday as the remnant low accelerates by to our northwest, heading for southeastern Canada. This drags drier air into our region by midday Saturday, salvaging the majority of the weekend. Gusty winds that develop on Friday will also continue into Saturday as they shift from southeast to southwest, then settle down later Saturday. Except a picturesque blue sky mixed with fair weather clouds on Sunday, with pleasant air, warm but manageable humidity and a nice breeze that isn’t too strong.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy start with any showers ending and patchy fog dissipating. Clouds hang on South Coast while sun appears to the north. Highs 68-75, coolest immediate coast. Dew point 60+. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point 55+. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine gives way to clouds south to north during the day. Highs 73-80, warmest inland. Dew point near 60. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers arrive south to north. Areas of fog develop. Lows 63-70. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers with scattered downpours too. Fog patches early. Highs 72-79. Dew point rising over 70. Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers becoming more widespread including downpours and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73 with matching dew points. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY: Starts cloudy with widespread showers, then rapid clearing southwest to northeast by late morning with sun and passing clouds midday on. Highs 75-82, occurring late-day. Dew point 70+ early, then falling into 60s. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW, diminishing late.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point sub-60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 80-87. Dew point near 60. Wind 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 12-16)

Next week’s large scale pattern is weak trough Northeast with westerly flow aloft. Other than a weak disturbance passing by about August 13 with a possible shower, it looks like a dry pattern with near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 17-21)

Temperatures run near to a little below normal with a couple of episodes of unsettled weather in a continued quiet pattern with a westerly flow dominant.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 6-10)

We’ve flipped to a cooler regime for a while, saying goodbye to the heat with the arrival of a cold front and shower activity early this morning. Temperatures will be running below seasonal normals now for a few days, most noticeable today and Wednesday. While dew points are down over the often-70-or-higher readings we’ve had recently, they will still be in the 60+ degree range much of the time through midweek, so it’s still “humid” by definition, but not as uncomfortable with the lower dew point readings combined with cooler air. Along with this though we have some unsettled weather, with 2 main areas of showers, one coming through this morning, and another later tonight into Wednesday morning. We can get some breaks of sun, especially north of I-90, this afternoon, and a little bit more substantial clearing from northwest to southeast Wednesday afternoon and night as we get a push of drier air from Canadian high pressure. This small bubble of high pressure is going to deliver a decent weather day Thursday with more sun and fairly comfortable air, though clouds will already be making a comeback from south to north during the afternoon and evening. These clouds are associated with what will be the remains of Debby, which came ashore as a category 1 hurricane in northwestern Florida and is currently causing flooding rainfall in the Southeast (Georgia / Carolinas) as a tropical storm. On yesterday’s discussion, written early in the day, I leaned toward a scenario that would keep Debby meandering around that area while it weakened from a tropical storm to a tropical depression, the full impact not felt up here until later in the coming weekend, but shortly thereafter I saw a quick convergence of most reliable guidance toward the other main scenario on the table, and have continued to see that since, so with that overwhelming forecast evidence the scenario described today is different, and has a profound impact on the forecast for later this week. Current thinking is that we’ll have 2 “arms” of moisture come through as Debby weakens to a depression, transitions to non-tropical, and accelerates north then northeast, probably even more quickly than the current NHC forecast indicates. This would bring us a showery episode on Friday, probably as early as pre-dawn and maybe for several hours into the day before we broke into a tropical air mass with just scattered showers. Then as the low center that was Debby accelerates northeastward, passing northwest of the WHW forecast area, we’d get into a band of heavier showers and embedded thunderstorms Friday night into part of Saturday, which would have an abrupt shut-off as the system pulled through and started to accelerate away. This acceleration may actually lead to fair weather for the majority of Saturday, but that is not quite certain yet (at day 5).

TODAY: Overcast with showers and patchy fog likely morning to midday. Thinning clouds with partial sun especially north of I-90 in the afternoon. Thickening clouds across the region again west to east by the end of the day. Highs 70-77. Dew point 70+ early then lowering gradually into the 60s. Wind variable mainly N to E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Widespread showers return from west to east, may be heaviest south of I-90 including embedded thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog dissipating and showers ending in the morning. Thinning / breaking clouds in the afternoon with some sun. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH, becoming variable late in the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Widespread showers arrive south to north. Areas of fog overnight. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely, most widespread morning to midday. Areas of fog morning. Highs 72-79. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with showers likely, potentially heavy, including a chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point 68+. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with showers / downpours and a chance of thunderstorms morning. Clearing afternoon. Highs 75-82, occurring late. Dew point 70+ morning, falling to 60s afternoon. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to SW.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 11-15)

Larger scale pattern puts a low amplitude trough over the Northeast with a general westerly air flow, surface high pressure in the Great Lakes and low pressure in eastern Canada. A few days can see diurnal shower development (August 12-14 most likely) but for the most part this looks like a fairly dry pattern with temperatures averaging a little below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 16-20)

Temperatures run near to a little below normal with a couple of episodes of unsettled weather in an otherwise mostly quiet pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 5-9)

We’ve one more hot summer day before a pattern change cools us down. Humidity levels ease up today compared to the weekend though with a little down sloping westerly wind today. A cold front approaches from the northwest and increases our chance of seeing showers and thunderstorms, but the timing looks late, as in tonight, for the best chance of such activity, so the loss of solar heating is likely to limit activity in the absence of other strong dynamics. With the frontal boundary still slogging its way through the region for a portion of Tuesday, there can be showers, especially along and south of the boundary, during the morning hours, before a break. But the boundary never gets that far to the south and another ripple of low pressure moving along it will bring the shower threat break to the region Tuesday night. Timing of this area suggests a drying trend on Wednesday. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be considerably cooler than they have been recently, and the dew point will be lower, but not down into the crisp category. You’ll notice a difference though. And now we get to talk a little about Debby’s potential impacts up here, and much like I stated yesterday, the range of possibilities with that system remains very wide. Ensemble spread for the forecast of the low position itself, let alone any swaths of moisture that can extend hundreds of miles away from it, range up to about 500 miles, or more, for the late week period. I currently envision a scenario where the low center stays far to the south, meandering around the South Carolina Coast before being drawn back inland, and bands of moisture breaking off and heading north, at least for some distance. How far? That’s a good question. I am currently thinking that high pressure will hold everything to the south on Thursday, with a fair weather day here. The big question is really Friday / Saturday. I can see a scenario where high pressure is being under-forecast by guidance and it holds to keep our region dry one, or even both days, possibly allowing one arm of mid level moisture to pass by during that time, or even forcing it to the west, with surface high pressure sinking off to the southeast and allowing us to turn warmer and tropical, but not so rainy. A scenario of weaker high pressure could allow much more rain to get up this far north, but this scenario is one I am currently leaning away from as far as this 5-day forecast time frame is concerned. Needless to say, the forecast beyond 72 hours is very low confidence and subject to major tweaks the next few days.

TODAY: Sunshine dominates, clouds increase late. Highs 78-85 Cape Cod, 85-92 elsewhere. Dew point gradually lowers from upper to middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Potential showers and thunderstorms late evening into overnight, with greatest potential for activity north and west of Boston. Areas of fog forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point in 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH but can be stronger and gusty around any storms.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Shower chances are greatest in the morning mainly near and south of I-90. Highs 71-78. Dew point lower 60s. Wind variable to N-NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and patchy fog morning. Thinning / breaking clouds afternoon, especially north of I-90. Highs 71-78. Dew point in 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Potential for showers. Lows 60-67. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 10-14)

Very low confidence forecast for the August 10-11 weekend but seeing a humid spell with the greater chance of shower activity later in the weekend based on the scenario I feel is most likely to take place regarding Debby. Early next week starts humid then trends drier, shower chances decrease. Significant heat is not in the forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 15-19)

Temperatures run near to a little below normal with a couple of episodes of unsettled weather to interrupt a mostly quiet pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 4-8)

Warm to hot, humid weather has 2 days left before it gets sent packing, and while we won’t be welcoming any crisp and dry Canadian air just yet, we’ll be seeing a notable change in the temperature regime across the region after Monday at least for a few days. High humidity continues today along with a shower and thunderstorm opportunity as a slow moving cold front approaches and the wind flow comes from the south and southwest. While the front won’t pass through the region until later Monday, we’ll see a reduction in humidity during the day with a more westerly wind and down sloping off the hills and mountains to our west. However, the passage of the front can trigger an additional shower or thunderstorm, especially during the afternoon and favoring areas near and north of I-90. We then turn considerably cooler for Tuesday and midweek as the front that goes by sits just south of the region. Additional disturbances leave us vulnerable to unsettled weather, at least lots of clouds, during Tuesday and Wednesday. I’m cautiously optimistic but with low confidence anticipate fair weather Thursday as high pressure to the north is under-forecast by guidance and has greater influence on our region. During the middle of the week we’ll also have to keep an eye on Debby (currently a tropical storm, forecast to become a category 1 hurricane before a Florida Panhandle landfall then milling around the US Southeast with an uncertain future). There are many “model scenarios” ranging from the remnants of the system curving out to sea to our south, to the system staying far to the south, never really getting that far north, just dissipating in the Southeast. There are far too much potential scenarios to confidently call for one at this time, but the one I lean toward points to the system not being an impact here through Thursday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, can be stronger near any storms.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. An afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible, especially north of I-90. Highs 85-92. Dew point lowers toward 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 9-13)

Low confidence predicted scenario keeps our weather fair for Friday and holds influence from Debby (showers / thunderstorms) off until the August 10-11 weekend, and at that maybe only a portion of the weekend. Higher humidity and additional shower / thunderstorm chances may exist later in the period, but low confidence here pending the weather preceding it.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 14-18)

No major sustained heat indicated, fairly seasonable and a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities anticipated at mid month.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 3-7)

We have a change in the pattern upcoming, but before that a very warm and muggy weekend, continuing the ongoing mid summer theme. Today’s shower and thunderstorm threat was greatest before I wrote this, with a decent batch of showers and embedded storms moving through a good portion of the region in the pre-dawn hours, but during the day today, the activity will be limited to isolated. It is later tonight, a disturbance can send another batch or two of showers/storms through the region. During Sunday, an approaching cold front will up the chance somewhat, but it still doesn’t look like the region will be wide-swathed by showers and thunderstorms. Just keep in mind your chance of seeing one is better tomorrow than today. Temperatures will be higher today with more sun, and generally down a couple degrees on average tomorrow due to more cloudiness prevailing. Monday, a more westerly wind sets up another down slope situation, which will cause me to bump my temperature forecast up over what I had on yesterday’s update. The shower and thunderstorm chance is lower Monday, but not non-existent. Monday will be the last day of heat for a while as we settle into a cooler regime as we head through Tuesday and Wednesday with more northerly to easterly flow setting up with the help of Canadian high pressure. However, the frontal boundary that approaches Sunday and passes Monday is not going that far, and will be sitting nearby, allowing the weather to be somewhat unsettled at times heading toward midweek. Details of this will be brought into focus as we get closer to that time frame.

TODAY: A sun/cloud mix. Isolated showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Highs 82-89, a bit cooler South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible. Lows 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, can be stronger near any storms.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 85-92. Dew point lowers toward 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of showers. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 8-12)

A tropical system (forecast to be a tropical storm) in the US Southeast region will have to be watched for possible East Coast impact. The possibilities with the eventual track and impact of this system are very wide-ranging, and it’s forecast-foolish to try to pin it down with confidence this far out. Therefore, my sensible weather outlook for this period of time is for near to below normal temperatures as a result of the upcoming pattern, and an opportunity for some rainfall at some point, to be fine-tuned in the days ahead. Don’t alter / cancel any plans for this period of time just yet – instead, keep in mind that this may need to be considered if the system has impact.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 12-16)

No major sustained heat indicated, fairly seasonable and a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities anticipated as we head through mid month.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 2-6)

There is a period of time during mid and late summer when getting specific with weather forecasts, even in the short term, can be quite tricky, as our weather is often triggered by interactions of boundaries and fairly small scale systems in weak wind flows, and while it’s doing one thing in one location it can be doing something very different somewhere not far away. That situation exists to some degree at this time, especially the next couple days. No doubt we remain in a very warm to hot, very humid air mass through the weekend. Today’s and Saturday’s shower and thunderstorm chances will be limited, but where activity occurs, torrential downpours can take place. I think the most notable aspect of today’s weather is the heat/humidity combo, not record-breaking certainly, but if you’re going to be outside working or exercising, you’ll want to practice caution. It is a weak disturbance that can help trigger a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Yesterday I mentioned most of this activity being west of here, but I do think the chance does exist as far east as Metro Boston from mid afternoon to early evening. I just do not expect widespread coverage, more of an isolated to scattered coverage. Tonight, a stronger disturbance will be traversing the region from west to east, and this will keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms going right through the night. It won’t be “doing something” all the time, in fact most of the time it won’t be, but any showers and storms that occur can produce very heavy downpours, and even a few brief wind gusts. Those near a maturing storm could see a brief burst of more frequent lightning, but I don’t expect these kinds of storms to stay sustained, unless a cluster can get organized. This would be most likely in the overnight / pre-dawn hours of Saturday. This disturbance should be about to push offshore near or shortly after sunrise, putting an end to the shower and thunderstorm threat. During the day Saturday, we’ll heat back up, maybe a little less hot than today, but just as if not slightly more humid. You’d think with that tropical airmass we’d be in for it in terms of heavy rain, but once again I only expect fairly isolated activity to pop up during the day / early evening, with many areas staying rain-free. It’s on Sunday when we finally bring a slow-moving cold front across the area that we should be able to squeeze more moisture out of the atmosphere with higher rainfall coverage. This day could present some flash flooding issues, but I’ll revisit this potential on the next couple updates. While this front is not bringing in a crisp, dry air mass, we will see a reduction in humidity for Monday and a drop off of shower and thunderstorm chances to just a slight possibility of isolated activity. However, that boundary will still be nearby on Tuesday and as another disturbance works its way into the region from the west, the shower and thunderstorm chance may very well increase once again. That’s not really a bad thing, as the region has been drier overall in the last few weeks, and could use some beneficial rainfall. This can often not seem the case when it’s been humid, but high humidity itself does not prevent rainfall deficits.

TODAY: Hazy sun / some clouds popping up. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mid afternoon to early evening. Highs 85-92 except a spot hotter temperature possible interior valleys, and cooler South Coast. Dew point remains 70+ south of I-90 and rises from 60s to 70+ to the north. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point 70+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH except brief gusty wind possible near some showers and storms.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring very early morning in eastern areas and favoring afternoon areas mainly west of Boston. Highs 82-89. Dew point 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, can be stronger near any storms.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 78-85. Dew point in 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 7-11)

There’s a potential tropical system that may develop as it moves across Cuba into the Florida area the next few days and by the middle of next week the moisture from this system, or the system as an organized low, may pass close to or south of the region. This is very much speculation based on information that cannot be pinned down confidently based on the current state and uncertainty of the system. Obvious fine-tuning to come. Otherwise, unsettled, cooler weather the middle of next week should give way to fair, warmer weather later in the week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 12-16)

No major heat indicated, but somewhat variable / near normal temperatures overall, with a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 1-5)

A couple of hotter days are going to start the month of August here in southeastern New England. It won’t be searing nor will we break any records, but hot enough for a heat advisory to be issued by the NWS today (through tomorrow too). Today will feature a shift in wind more to the west behind a trough moving offshore. This will bring a slight down-slope drying and dew points that were 70+ everywhere can fall below 70 for several hours. A persistent high offshore will help turn winds back to southwest and bump up the humidity again for Friday. The shower and thunderstorm threat becomes minimal today, under 10%, and only nudges up slightly on Friday, with the greatest chance to see any activity being central MA to eastern CT later in the day as a result of activity developing further west of there and moving into that region. Odds are pretty low to see showers and storms elsewhere on Friday, so by and large just a couple hot summer days ahead – “least humid” today, more oppressive tomorrow. The weekend continues the theme of high humidity, but 90-degree high temps should be absent as we’ll see more cloud cover and a better chance at showers and thunderstorms. Right now, Saturday may be a complex day in terms of pin pointing showers and storms. There are indications of some morning to midday activity, favoring areas west and north of Boston, with a weak disturbance moving through. I’ve also seen a few hints on some reliable guidance of a type of MCS that may evolve somewhere between the Great Lakes and western New England that could drop southward, maybe through parts of southwestern New England, but also take most of the available moisture with it, leaving much of SNE storm-free later Saturday. This is a gamble of a forecast and one where the details may be different, so for now I’m just going to play this as isolated to scattered storm chances and fine-tune it with tomorrow’s and Saturday’s morning blog updates. Sunday stands a better chance of more widespread activity as a slow moving cold front enters the region from the northwest. This front may take until sometime Monday to fully pass through, so that looks like a transition day to lower humidity, gradually, with still the opportunity for showers around. Also, this being day 5, and least-certain, the outlook will be revisited several times in coming updates.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy An isolated shower or thunderstorm favoring southwestern NH and north central MA first half of the afternoon. Highs 85-92, except a bit cooler Cape Cod. Dew point falls below 70. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm late in the day, favoring central MA and eastern CT. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point rises toward 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, can be stronger near any storms.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring southern areas. Highs 78-85. Dew point lowering gradually through 60s. Wind NW to N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 6-10)

Increased humidity and shower chances may return toward the middle of next week as a transition between a briefly drier pattern and a more summary one. There will be a lot of sorting out day to day details to do.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 11-15)

No major heat indicated, but somewhat variable / near normal temperatures overall, with a few shower and thunderstorm opportunities.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

Our pattern will be warm and humid from today through the weekend. Variations in weather will depend on the systems impacting the region. Today, weak low pressure moves from the Great Lakes to southeastern Canada via northern New England at the St. Lawrence Valley. As this system passes by, our shower chance is higher today, with some scattered ones around, including some heavy downpours in some locations, mainly this morning through early afternoon, before there is a decrease in activity. Heavier thunderstorms can occur, but are not expected to be numerous. The trough trailing the passing low brings one more shot at a shower and slight chance of a thunderstorm later this evening / overnight before exiting. Slightly drier air takes the shower chance to nearly nil Thursday, but a re-spike in humidity aids its increase again on Friday afternoon. Similar conditions are expected for Saturday with the opportunity for pop up showers and thunderstorms, TBD by locations of boundaries and trigger points. This may have to do with sea breezes too. A slow-moving cold front enters New England on Sunday, increasing the chance and likely the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Fine-tuning of the weekend days can take place in the next few updates. Bottom line: Don’t cancel any outdoor plans you have for this weekend just yet.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through early afternoon with scattered showers, a few possible downpours, and a chance of a thunderstorm. Partly sunny mid afternoon on with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog overnight. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible late evening. Lows 65-72. Dew point falling to middle to lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91, except a bit cooler Cape Cod. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm late in the day. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 83-90. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Better chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 81-88, cooler South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)

Lower humidity and mainly fair weather the first part of next week. Higher humidity and an increased shower chance the middle part of next week. Mostly fair / isolated showers or thunderstorms, humid late week. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)

No strong indications for specifics, but more typical August weather, seasonably warm, often moderately humid, and a few shower and thunderstorm potentials.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

Several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms exist the next several days, but only one day appears to present the chance for more widespread activity. We start with a warm, humid southerly air flow today, but high pressure in enough control that any shower and thunderstorm activity will be isolated. A disturbance swinging through from the west Wednesday brings more widespread activity and more cloud cover keeps the temperature a little lower. Behind this, slightly drier air arrives Thursday when I think the shower and thunderstorm chance will become absent. Increasing humidity and a more southwesterly flow returning during Friday does re-initiate the chance of a shower or thunderstorm, but not expecting much during the day with just isolated late-day activity. Currently, Saturday presents very warm, humid weather, with a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms possible – but fine tuning needed.

TODAY: Patchy fog and low clouds early, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Isolated late-day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 82-89 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A slight chance of a shower early. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms more likely. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 84-91, except a bit cooler Cape Cod. Dew point drops to near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm late in the day. Highs 83-90, cooler South Coast. Dew point rises through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 83-90. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)

A trough from the west brings a better chance of showers and thunderstorms August 4 before activity diminishes again early to mid next week with only a couple isolated showers and storms possible a few times. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 9-13)

Similar pattern, warm, humid weather prevails. A few shower and thunderstorm chances.

COMMENTARY

Just about a week ago, our guidance would have most forecasters believing that the least chance of showers was today through Wednesday, followed by an increase in the chance for the first couple days of August. As it turns out, it’s somewhat opposite, but this is why we update forecasts frequently. Prediction of the future is possible, but far from error-free. I always preach about not being too specific too far in advance. We look at general patterns, then try to gradually pin down the details with time. Even sometimes your forecast for the next day, or even same-day, can fail. As a forecaster, you can only hope to get it mostly right more often than you don’t. That’s the science (and somewhat the art) of prediction.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

Today will be the most unsettled / least sunny day of the next several days. Weakening surface low pressure passes just east of the region early today, while a small upper level low pressure area drifts northward across the area during the day. Most of the shower (and some thunderstorm) activity wheeled through from the southeast and east during the overnight hours, but widespread showers are still occurring early this morning over much of eastern CT and RI, with more scattered activity in southeastern MA, and just a few lingering sprinkles of rain moving westward over northeastern to north central MA and southern NH. During the process of both low pressure areas doing as described, the shower coverage will diminish and the clouds will start to show breaks in them as we move toward midday into afternoon. But this process will allow solar heating to help initiate more showers – mainly isolated to scattered – along with a few potential thunderstorms. So even though there is slight improvement set to take place, the low pressure areas will continue to keep it somewhat unsettled. Today will be on the cooler side, with high temps ranging from around 70 in some coastal areas to as high as 80 over areas away from the coast that see any appreciable sun. Any shower and thunderstorm activity wanes tonight, but before that happens, one more batch of formidable activity can come impact parts of the region. If you follow radar, you’ll be able to see a shifting trajectory of any showers during the day / evening. They start out with mostly a westward movement early this morning, but if you look at radar as of 7:30 a.m. you’ll note that there doesn’t appear to be much movement near the coast of RI. This is a reflection of the center of the upper low. The shower activity will respond to the circulation of this system as it lifts northward, so that by the end of the day the showers and storms that remain will be moving more from west to east. Once this system is done with us, high pressure off the US East Coast will become re-established, and we’ll be in a warm, humid southerly air flow from Tuesday through Friday. There will be a daily opportunity for showers and thunderstorms to develop, and right now Wednesday looks like the day with the highest coverage of activity, with the aid of a disturbance moving in from the west, with the least chance being Thursday as slightly drier air moves in behind that disturbance.

TODAY: Starting out overcast with patchy fog – numerous showers eastern CT / RI, scattered showers southeastern MA, isolated light showers elsewhere. Breaks in the clouds follow with partial sun at times, but additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, with activity favoring locations west of I-95. Highs 70-75 coast, 75-80 inland. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind variable under 10 MPH, shifting to N then W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Patchy fog. A possible shower early. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind N shifting to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 81-88. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A slight chance of a shower. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms more likely. Highs 78-85. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60+. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)

Lower shower and thunderstorm chances August 3-4, higher again August 5-7 when we may see additional tropical moisture, or even some kind of tropical-origin low near or off the East Coast. Overall pattern is warm with frequently moderate to high humidity.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

Similar pattern, warm, humid weather prevails. A few shower and thunderstorm chances.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

We get through just about all of today with nice weather, but it gets cut a bit short over Cape Cod and adjacent areas during the afternoon, because offshore low pressure is wasting no time wheeling its moisture our way. Most of the region sees one primary band of showers from it tonight, moving in from southeast to northwest, running out of steam early Monday as it gets further away from its parent low, which will pass by to the east while weakening during the day. So Monday itself doesn’t end up that bad a day overall, with lots of clouds, some sun, and the redevelopment of some shower and thunderstorm activity mainly west of I-95 during the afternoon and evening. Tuesday and Wednesday we will be in a humid southerly air flow. The shower and thunderstorm chance will present itself both days. Currently, it looks like Tuesday’s activity will be limited to late-day, isolated to scattered. The Wednesday activity may appear sooner with greater coverage, but this is not high confidence, and I’ll revisit this next update. Thursday, some drier air should arrive from the west but the atmosphere may still be unstable enough to allow a possible shower or thunderstorm.

TODAY: Sun followed by clouds. Showers arrive Cape Cod / South Coast mid to late afternoon and progress northwestward during the evening. Highs 75-82 coast, 81-88 inland. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind variable to SE increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers push through during the evening then taper off from southeast to northwest overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. An early-day shower mainly west of I-95, then scattered later-day showers and thunderstorms mainly west of I-95 again. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind E shifting to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Patchy fog. A possible shower early. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind N shifting to W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 81-88. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. A slight chance of a shower. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 79-86. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A possible shower or thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 81-88. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)

Lower shower and thunderstorm chances August 2-3, higher again August 4-6. Overall pattern is warm with frequently moderate to high humidity.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)

Nothing really out of the ordinary expected for August .. warm with moderate to high humidity and a couple/few shower and thunderstorm chances we can sort out as they get closer.