DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

High pressure brings fair, tranquil weather today – a cold morning and seasonably pleasant afternoon – though you’ll see clouds begin to move in ahead of a coming low pressure trough. This has been a much-talked-about system as it offers our first real opportunity in quite some time for a widespread rainfall, which in the shortest term would be beneficial for getting multiple southern New England wildfires under control, some of which have been burning for up to a few weeks. As has been my expectation, it does appear that it will help with the fires, while not being major help for the ongoing drought. We’ll need a series of such systems over a period of weeks (rain or snow as we head into late autumn and winter) to eradicate the drought, and it remains to be seen how that will go. In the shorter term though, beneficial rain does come tomorrow, with the orientation of the occluding low pressure area sending a band of it into our region from southwest to northeast during the morning and midday hours, slowing a little as the occluding low starts a cyclonic pivot, but with enough momentum to eventually push a dry slot up from the south and cut the rain off during the evening hours. It is at that time that most of the region will have seen on the order of about 1/2 to 1 inch of welcomed rainfall – no, not a great soaking, but an ok one, enough to quell the fires anyway. What happens after that is that the old low center will wobble its way by our region from west to east, eventually spawning a new storm to our southeast, that tracks northward on the eastern side of the trough, which will still have its axis west of us later Friday. This can bring another slug of rain to a portion of the region favoring Cape Cod / eastern MA and southeastern NH (maybe far enough west to include RI) for a few hours, timing between late day Friday and early morning Saturday. To the west, only a few showers of rain and some highest-elevation snow showers can occur, but these will be minor. We’ll take any bonus rain we can get from this system, as once it exits, it’s a drying trend that takes over for the balance of the weekend and the start of next week in a chilly northwesterly air flow behind the low pressure conglomeration.

TODAY: Scattered cloud patches amidst plenty of sunshine through midday. An increase in clouds during the afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds consolidate – becoming overcast. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain arrives southwest to northeast by midday, but tapers off toward evening south of I-90. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts near the coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Patchy rain / drizzle diminishes as clouds break at times. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers, may be mixed with wet snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA. Temperatures fall slightly from 45-52 to 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A few rain/mix/snow showers. An additional period of steadier rain possible eastern areas favoring Cape Cod Friday night. Lows 35-42. Highs 47-54. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

While still watching for a wave of low pressure to bring clouds and a potential rain threat around the Thanksgiving holiday (November 28) the trends have been for a bit more blocking and unsettled weather pushed south of the region with a drier, chilly northwesterly air flow in our region. Leaning in this direction but not discounting the potential mentioned.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 30 – DECEMBER 4)

Watching for a passing low pressure area around December 1-2 – doesn’t look like a major storm this far in advance. Dry weather is expected at the start of and at the end of period. No major extremes of temperature expected.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

A dry northwesterly air flow provides fair, mild weather today with continued high fire danger. High pressure builds in tonight into Wednesday with more dry and tranquil weather. A large trough of low pressure and occluding surface low will move into the Northeast on Thursday. The set-up for this system regarding our weather still looks similar to me then previously mentioned, with the main ribbon of rain, which will be quite welcomed, moving through the region in a matter of several hours, with a more showery lighter rainfall pattern after that, with some snow mixing in at highest elevations well northwest of Boston by Friday which remains unsettled as the mature and now weakening low moves across the area. Additional low pressure development later Friday and early Saturday takes place too far east to give the entire region any additional beneficial rain, but Cape Cod can be clipped by that system. Otherwise the start of the weekend will see upper level low pressure crossing there region with a lot of clouds and a few showers of rain/mix/snow possible.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain midday / afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, shifting to SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Occasional rain showers / drizzle. Patchy fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers, may be mixed with wet snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA. Temperatures fall slightly from 45-52 to 38-45. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT / SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. A few rain/mix/snow showers. An additional period of steadier rain possible Cape Cod. Lows 33-40. Highs 47-54. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

Fair, cool early period. Watching for some additional unsettled weather mid to late period (including Thanksgiving November 28) but no indications of a major storm during this period. This activity could also be shunted south of New England and we remain fair here.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 29 – DECEMBER 3)

Mostly zonal and dry pattern with up and down temperatures expected end November, then need to watch for passing low pressure and unsettled weather in the first day or two of December.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

A cold front moves through the region this morning with no more than a passing insignificant rain shower under a deck of clouds, before it moves on and sun returns during the day. The air will remain fairly mild as the air mass behind the front is modified. Cooler air will eventually filter in tonight and Tuesday on a northwesterly air flow, keeping fire danger on the high side. A narrow area of high pressure builds in Tuesday night, which will be a chilly one, and Wednesday, which will be a fair, more tranquil day, but with filtered to dimmed sun as high clouds advance in from the west. These clouds are the forerunners of what will be a swath of rain heading our way for Thursday. This is due to a sprawling low pressure area moving into the Great Lakes, with cyclic redevelopment of low pressure eastward as the trough winds up and slowly moves east in response to some blocking high pressure to the north. This is a different configuration than we’ve seen with many systems recently, and it’s what allows the rain to reach our area Thursday. That said, I have had my concerns that this system will be limited in its ability to produce a significant amount of rain, and this will likely come to be the case. Not to say “hey it’s not going to rain!” .. it is going to rain from this thing, but modestly. The orentation of the trough and accompanying surface low means a strong occlusion and a ribbon of rain that is fairly narrow and moves through from southwest to northeast in a few hours, after which the filling low drifts eastward across our region during the following 24 hours, into Friday, with more spotty, lighter rainfall. We’ll get close to a rain/snow mix in our highest elevations to the northwest of Boston but most of the frozen stuff will stack in the mountains to the west and north of the WHW forecast area. There are still some details to work out with this forecast, so pay attention to any comments I make and of course the daily updates heading through the week!

TODAY: Lots of clouds / passing light rain showers through mid morning, then increasing sun. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW with a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. A period of rain midday / afternoon. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, shifting to SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Occasional rain showers / drizzle. Patchy fog. Temperatures steady 45-52. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers, may be mixed with wet snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA. Temperatures fall slightly from 45-52 to 40-47. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

The November 23-24 weekend will feature upper level low pressure drifting across the region and weakening, with limited rain/snow shower chances, and mostly dry, cool conditions. We have to watch for a wave of low pressure to bring clouds back and possible rain toward the middle of next week. While any rain we get is generally regarded as beneficial, any unsettled weather in the days just before Thanksgiving can result in at least minor travel troubles.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 28 – DECEMBER 2)

The large scale pattern features some blocking transitioning more zonal with time, and mostly dry weather here. Depending on the timing of a disturbance, Thanksgiving Day (November 28) can at least start unsettled.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Dry weather continues, but there is some rain now in the 5-day forecast. First, high pressure brings fair and mild weather to the region today with lots of sun and less wind, and temperatures running above normal. A trough and cold front will cross the region Monday with some clouds and a brief window of opportunity for passing light rain showers before noon. Breezy, mild weather prevails during the day as the air behind the front is not that cold and will be balanced out by whatever solar heating takes place. It will chill off that night and be a cooler day Tuesday with dry conditions. Tuesday night winds up quite chilly with a narrow area of high pressure providing clear sky and light wind for radiational cooling. As we get into midweek, things start to change. While we still have some blocking in place, features on the larger scale will be readjusting somewhat. One of the players is a trough moving through the Upper Midwest with a sprawling low pressure area. The initial surge of the moisture from this system will dry up as it moves into the eastern US, and it will be a disturbance that contains some remnant moisture from TS Sara (far to the south in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico) that initiates another low pressure area to the south and west of New England. It is this system that gives us our best shot at widespread rainfall on Thursday. As guidance struggles in a blocking pattern, we are probably not seeing the actual outcome on current simulations, and it’s important to follow the ensembles and model trends. While I do have a wet day in the forecast for “day 5” Thursday, I am skeptical that this system will produce widespread significant amounts. A conceivable / believable scenario would bring a narrow ribbon of rain into and possible through the region with the initial arrival of the low pressure area, but in response to blocking, a new redevelopment takes place further east and possibly further south, shifting the focus of heavier precipitation to offshore of New England, leaving us with some lighter rain / drizzle after the initial arrival. If such a feature was a little further west than described above, then we’d be in the game here in southeastern New England for more beneficial rainfall. Will monitor the trends closely.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing rain shower before noon. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW with a few higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Good chance of rain. Highs 45-52. Wind E 5-15 MPH, possibly stronger in coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Upper level low pressure hangs about late next week. November 22 stands the greatest chance of additional rain, but it doesn’t look like all that much, probably more of a chance of a brief rain period then scattered rain showers, and getting into the November 23-24 weekend we would see just a daily chance of a few showers of rain/mix/snow with mostly dry weather. Chilly/dry northwesterly flow indicated for early Thanksgiving week (November 25-26).

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 27 – DECEMBER 1)

The large scale pattern features some blocking transitioning more zonal with time, and mostly dry weather here. May have to watch one system passing by to the south around the Thanksgiving holiday itself (November 28) for a more extensive cloud cover and rain chance, but this is not a forecast with any kind of certainty – more a precautionary mention since it’s a holiday with a lot of travel involved.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Our dry spell and high fire danger roll on, but from a weather standpoint it’s quite nice for being out and about on this mid November weekend. While today there is a gusty breeze at times, the air will not be that cold, as the air mass in our region is quite modified, despite a big ocean storm to our east. As this feature moves away, and high pressure builds in, we’ll have an even nicer Sunday with less wind and above normal temperatures again. Mild weather will continue into Monday, but the wind will kick up as a trough and frontal system swing through from northwest to southeast. Other than the slight chance of a passing rain shower with this disturbance before midday Monday, the dry weather will continue early next week with a cooling trend in a northwesterly air flow. This is all part of a readjusting blocking pattern that for now continues to keep our region dry. Will that last? I’ll address it after this detailed forecast for the next 5 days…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing rain shower before noon. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW with a few higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 31-38. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

The large scale pattern, while driven by blocking, is going to reconfigure itself enough to allow a large low pressure area into the Great Lakes region and some development further east of there to give us a decent shot at some rainfall on November 21, but the orientation / movement of this may mean that significant rainfall rates are only over this area for a relatively short duration. Any rain / precipitation we can get is beneficial with the ongoing / worsening drought and the frequently high fire danger. The remainder of the period features upper level low pressure hanging around and while the pattern is technically “unsettled” with some rain/mix/snow shower chances, it’s not likely to be particularly wet beyond the November 21 opportunity and maybe one more shot of rain for part of November 22.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 26-30)

Thanksgiving travel / holiday (November 28) / “shopping season” means that the weather here will be very important. Strongest indications are for additional blocking, but our region on the drier side yet again. Will monitor.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

If you hear the terms “blocking” and “ocean storm” you might think “stormy” for your forecast, but despite the first 2 being true, the third isn’t, and instead it’s more dry weather today into the weekend as the offshore storm spins out there, kicking up the northerly breeze through Saturday, but keeping most of its clouds and all of its precipitation over the ocean. In fact, deeper into the weekend we see wind relax and a moderating temperature trend. The wind will start to come back up early in the week as a disturbance and cold front move through in a northwesterly air flow, reversing the temperature moderation to a cool-down, but with more dry weather. Your best chance of seeing “water” on the coast is from minor splash-over at high tide times today and Friday from the combined offshore storm and higher tides due to a full super moon (today). Fire danger remains high to very high across the region during the coming days.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 50-57. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, gusts to 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 37-44. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

Targeting November 21 for best rain chance, but not sold this will be a significant rain producer. It does come at the beginning of a pattern shift to more trough in the Northeast, which probably leads to more of a cool but mostly dry regime with just a few showers of rain/mix and a seasonable chill after that earlier-period wet weather chance.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 25-29)

Continued signs of a trough being the dominant feature in the Northeast. While a more “unsettled” pattern, it doesn’t scream “stormy” from what I can see. Will continue to monitor the evolution of the pattern heading toward and into the Thanksgiving holiday period.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

Not much to add today – more of an update to see yup, blocking in place, and yup, still a dry pattern. In fact, our fire danger may reach a peak in the next 72 hours (especially Friday into Saturday) thanks to an ocean storm. The pattern allows the storm to our east to back in enough to bring increased wind, but not enough to throw its precipitation shield far enough west to reach our region other than maybe a passing brief patch or two of light rain sometime later Friday (I actually think this stays offshore as well). Backing up a bit, the evolution of the block drives one system to our southwest today – a system that might have brought rain to us in a non-blocked pattern, but all we’ll see from it is a shield of clouds in the southwestern sky later on. This system joins the ocean party before it all drifts away to the east later in the weekend and we continue dry, with a temperature moderation. This moderation will be felt Monday, but another disturbance will dive southeastward through the area, bringing some clouds and maybe a quick passing rain shower Monday, but no widespread beneficial rainfall. Also, a reminder that during Friday and into the weekend, some minor coastal flooding / splash-over can occur due to the offshore storm.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy – most sun morning / least sun afternoon. Highs 44-51. Wind N 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Maybe brief light rain or mixed rain/snow favoring the NH Seacoast and far eastern MA. Lows 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 36-43. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a passing rain shower. Highs 54-61. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

Large scale blocking relaxes somewhat, with a general northwest to west flow here and a cooling trend the middle of next week, and some moderation after that. Medium range guidance hints at a system around November 22 to bring a rain chance, but in the current regime there’s some doubt about how productive it will be. Will monitor.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 24-28)

While there remain hints of upper level troughing in the Northeast with a cooler regime, it still doesn’t look too stormy to me, just slightly more unsettled. Still leaning toward drier over wetter heading toward Thanksgiving (November 28).

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

Large scale blocking, driven by high pressure in the North Atlantic, will be the major player in our somewhat different but still dry weather pattern during the next several days. Surface high pressure builds in today and lingers Thursday as the next approaching low gets shunted far to our southwest. The energy from that system will be absorbed by a large ocean storm to our east which will do some retrograding, enough to throw some of its cloud shield into our region Friday into Saturday, but not likely enough to throw any of its precipitation this far west. The system will the pull away later in the weekend, and we’ll be in a dry, cool weather regime. Fire danger remains and will remain high throughout this period, especially during times when winds are stronger. Some splash can occur Friday into the weekend in eastern coastal areas, due to the offshore storm.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 43-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 47-54. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 18-22)

The large scale pattern will feature blocking continuing but some readjustment of the features gives us a more westerly flow next week. Minor disturbances bring nothing more than minor passing rain shower threats, otherwise generally dry weather will prevail.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 23-27)

Hints of a little more troughing in the Northeast, but not really in a way that turns our pattern too wet or stormy, more like chilly and slightly less settled.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

A little more confident we evolve a blocking pattern, driven by the emergence of a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. But don’t let that fool you into thinking that we’re about to break the drought and/or we’re about to start snowing. It’s mid November, the ocean waters are still relatively warm (running above normal) and the orientation of feature as the block evolves actually is a dry set-up for New England. First though, a windy Tuesday as cooler air continues to flow into the region, and fire danger remains high, with easy spread of existing fires and any new fires too. Avoid outdoor open flames! High pressure builds over the region and tonight the wind drops off and it gets quite cold, and this leads to a chilly but more tranquil Wednesday. The first real evidence of the developing block will be a low pressure system that medium range guidance once had giving our region a swath of rain Thursday, which will dive southeast and miss the region – just some clouds here. This system will aid in the development of a large ocean storm which will do a little retrograding Thursday night through Friday, throwing its shield of clouds back into New England. If its precipitation shield expands this far back, it will likely be light and patchy, so that will be of little help with the ongoing dryness, and increased wind will aid in the ability of any remaining fires to be hard to contain and put out. It looks like the ocean storm will begin a slow drift back to the east by early in the weekend, but we’ll likely remain it the brisk northerly air flow on its back side, with dry and cool weather here.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 46-53. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. A few showers of rain and/or mixed rain/snow possible. Highs 43-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing rain shower possible evening. Lows 35-42. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 45-52. Wind N-NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Large scale blocking pattern with our region in a general northerly air flow with dry weather and near to below normal temperatures during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 22-26)

Continued leaning toward a dry pattern with variable temperatures averaging fairly close to normal.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

Low pressure passes to our north today. Last night, its warm front delivered some rain – enough to wet the ground but not to but a dent in the drought. While a cold front sweeps through this morning, its early-day timing and a clearing trend, drying air, and west wind means a mild daytime for today. It won’t be until a secondary cold front moves through our area from northwest to southeast early Tuesday that a genuinely colder air mass will arrive. While that front moves through without any precipitation, its notable wind shift, gusty wind, and very dry air incoming will push the fire danger right back up across our region again during the day Tuesday. Fortunately, the wind portion of this won’t last too long, and while we remain dry it will be more tranquil and quite chilly as high pressure builds in Wednesday, allowing fire fighting crews to again gain more control on the many brush / leaf fires burning in the region due to ongoing drought. Going through this week, we’re going to see the evolution of a large scale blocking pattern, driven by a developing negative NAO (high pressure north / low pressure south in the North Atlantic). This will drive the next low pressure area southwest of our region on Thursday when we’ll just have some clouds, but continued dry weather. By Friday, high pressure to the west and low pressure to the east – a larger ocean storm – will drive a cool north wind at us, and we’ll have to keep an eye on some retrogression of that low for tossing a lobe or two of moisture back toward the coast, but right now it appears the wet weather will stay offshore in favor of dry, chilly weather here to end the week.

TODAY (VETERANS DAY): Cloudy start with rain showers ending west to east, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 61-68. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 35-42. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 45-52. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

Minor precipitation threats are limited to mainly disturbances in a northwesterly air flow with an otherwise mainly dry, variable but mostly seasonable pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 21-25)

Not going for bigger changes, only more of the same, but will monitor trends in medium range guidance for additional blocking to take place. Leaning dry, near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

High pressure moved overhead last evening, shutting down the winds of yesterday but setting up a night of radiational cooling under a clear sky, with very low dew points. Except for urban centers and some immediate oceanside locations in the 30s, the region saw temperatures fall to the 20s. Today will be a cool but tranquil day as high pressure overhead gradually slides to the east, keeping the pressure gradient weak, which keeps winds light. You’ll notice an irregular increase in high and patchy middle clouds in response to the approach of a low pressure area and its warm front. This front will bring the chance of some rain to our area tonight, but amounts look meager, and a cold front that quickly follows it as low pressure passes to our north early Monday puts an end to the rainfall threat before mid morning. Despite the second boundary being a “cold front”, as is often the case, it actually ends up warmer for the daytime tomorrow than it will be today due to differences in the current air mass vs. the air mass behind that front, which will be modified from warmer conditions to our west and supported by a down slope influence of a westerly wind off hills / mountains to our west. So while breezy, much of Veterans Day turns out quite nice. It won’t be until early Tuesday when a trailing disturbance sends another cold front through our region that we’ll have a legitimate shot of colder air arrive, along with plenty of wind. This will be a dry frontal passage, and the continuation of overall dry weather, low dew points, and frequently active wind will keep fire danger high again especially this day. High pressure builds into the region Wednesday with another chilly but more tranquil day as winds relax significantly. I’ve been eyeing an unsettled weather threat for Thursday, and it should come as no surprise that trends in reliable guidance are for this system to be smaller, weaker, and further south, and dry weather here.

TODAY: Sun becoming interrupted at times by more clouds during the day. Highs 46-53. Wind calm to SE under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds consolidate. A period of rain likely, with some fog patches. Temperatures steady evening, rising slightly overnight. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 27-34. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 46-53. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

Minor precipitation threats are limited to mainly disturbances in a northwesterly air flow with an otherwise mainly dry, seasonable pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 20-24)

While longer range guidance hints at some high latitude blocking, I don’t see this as a flip to a stormy pattern, but a continued fairly dry one with a tendency for more chilly weather. Will monitor potential pattern evolution, of course.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

As was expected, a series of cold fronts has knocked us down our temperature staircase to a lower platform – a more seasonable chill – that will now be ours for today and tomorrow, as high pressure dominates today and slides off to our east tomorrow. The front that moved through last night was not as “dry” as I had forecast. While not widespread, there were some ground-wetting rain showers with it, but not enough to do anything for the drought or quell many of the brush fires burning in the region. The former will continue to build, and the latter will continue to burn with only human intervention available – an effort thwarted by a gusty wind during today. Finally, the wind leaves us later today as the center of high pressure crosses. This sets up a cold night tonight. Clouds fan into the region and thicken up Sunday as a warm front approaches. Low pressure passes to our north Sunday night and early Monday with a period of rain with the warm front’s passage, and some rain showers with a cold front trailing the low early Monday. This should clear out in time for most of the outdoor Veterans Day parades and ceremonies scheduled for Monday, and while it will be breezy, it looks fairly mild that day. A secondary cold front will deliver cooler air and dry weather for Tuesday and Wednesday.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusts to 30 MPH, but gradually diminishing during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear followed by high clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Thickening clouds. Highs 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady or rising slightly. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

Potential low pressure impacts with rain chances around November 14 & 18, but neither look like they can produce soaking beneficial rainfall here. Overall pattern remains dry with temperatures variable but near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 19-23)

First hints on some reliable guidance of a shift toward a more blocked pattern at high latitudes, which would potentially lead to a shot of colder air arriving during this period of time, but still looks like a fairly dry pattern overall.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Dry, cooler weather will be with us today and into the extended weekend, but we won’t get through the entire weekend with an unsettled interruption. First, high pressure provides plenty of sun and dry air today. A cold front passes with no fanfare other than a gusty breeze this evening, setting us back to seasonably chilly levels for Saturday and Sunday. Saturday’s sky will be blue with passing fair weather clouds popping up, while Sunday’s will feature an increase in high to middle clouds west to east. This will be as the next trough and frontal system approaches from the west, but like many of its predecessors, it is not likely to produce significant rain, which we need to quell ongoing high fire danger and expanding drought. I just expect a period of rain Sunday night and an additional rain shower early Monday (Veterans Day), with dry air arriving quickly enough so that outdoor ceremonies for the holiday won’t likely be rained on. In fact, Monday looks fairly mild, albeit breezy, as the fair weather returns. High pressure builds in with fair, dry weather for Tuesday as the pattern goes on.

TODAY: Sunshine. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 28-35 southern NH and central MA, 35-42 Boston area to South Coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear followed by high clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Thickening clouds. Highs 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady or rising slightly. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

There’s been a lot of difference between two major medium range models of late, and I don’t often mention models by name on my discussion, but here I will. GFS (US model) has had a tendency to over-amplify and over-block the pattern beyond 5 days recently, while the ECMWF (European model) has done a better overall job with the pattern, even if missing some details. We see this again on the most recent runs with the GFS hinting toward a more amplified northern stream creating a slower-moving storm to impact our region late next week. Run-to-run variation has been significant, with little ensemble support (many runs of the same model with minor adjustments). This indicates to me that the guidance is struggling with the pattern. The ECMWF paints a picture of “more of the same”. While the most recent run does indicate a “stronger” system there, it doesn’t slow it down, and doesn’t consolidate it in such a way to deliver beneficial precipitation to our region. Granted, this is still far enough away that many solutions are technically “on the table”, but given recent performance and the current / ongoing pattern, I remain with the same outlook of a brief unsettled interruption around the middle of this period and otherwise mainly dry weather and variable temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 17-21)

Still nothing that screams big pattern change to me – more of the same.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

The next 3 days feature dry weather and a cooling trend as a west to northwest flow dominates with a couple of cold fronts passing by too. Outdoor open flames are discouraged as fire danger will remain quite high. The weather on Sunday and Veterans Day will be impacted by low pressure traveling to our north – a warm front approaching Sunday, passing through at night, followed quickly by a cold front and a return a gusty westerly breeze during Veterans Day Monday. The greatest opportunity for rain will be with the warm front on Sunday evening, with a rain shower threat into Monday morning with the cold front, but this system looks like a modest rain producer, not really doing any significant help for our expanding drought.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, gusting around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW up to 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear followed by high clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Thickening clouds. Highs 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. A period of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady or rising slightly. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (VETERANS DAY): Cloudy with a chance of rain showers early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

No changes to the outlook. Pattern dominated by westerly flow. Best shot at briefly wet weather around mid period, otherwise mostly dry, up-and-down temps averaging a little above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 16-20)

“Carbon-copy” days 6-10 for days 11-15, basically. Brief unsettled weather amidst a dry, variable but overall mild temperature pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

A warm & windy Wednesday is what we have today in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front. This front, and a couple secondary boundaries following it, will stair-step us back toward seasonably cool as we head toward the weekend. A gusty breeze will often be with us during this transition, and with the lack of rainfall, fire danger will remain high. During Sunday, clouds return ahead of an approaching warm front, but I’m skeptical of how much rainfall some of the guidance paints for our area. Chance of rain: Yes. Chance of significant rain: Low. More to come on this…

TODAY: Lots of sun. Highs 71-78. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH, gusts 25-35 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 33-40. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear followed by high clouds. Lows 25-32. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Thickening clouds. Chance of rain at night. Highs 46-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

Overall pattern is dry, up and down temps but mild for the 5-day stretch. Brief interruption of unsettled weather most likely around November 14.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 15-19)

Stronger evidence of a continuation of the same pattern from days 6-10. Mostly dry, up and down temps, brief interruption of unsettled weather most likely around November 17.