DAYS 1-5 (MAY 13-17)

Like last week, we have a warm-up to start the week off today and Tuesday. Today we moderate over yesterday quite nicely as we’ve lost the clouds and will turn the wind around to southwest with high pressure to our south. Tonight, a warm front will cross the region with clouds and maybe a few showers – much of the region probably staying dry or just seeing brief rain. Tuesday warms even more over today behind the front, with more sunshine and a slight up-tick in the humidity that those sensitive to it may notice. A cold front approaches at night, but most of the energy for its showers will stay to the north, with just perhaps a few wandering into the region overnight and early Wednesday as the front moves in and washes out. While this is happening, low pressure organizes to our south. The trend on this from guidance has been for it to occur further and further south, to the point where the primary rain threat from the low is confined to the South Coast. It looks like that at this point and my hints of a mostly cloudy but largely rain-free forecast for Wednesday as discussed on yesterday’s blog are carried over and solidified today. There’s a little uncertainty on medium range guidance for late week with a few different scenarios depicted, but the one I am leaning toward carries the surface low out to sea Thursday while an upper level disturbance brings a sun/cloud mix and maybe a shower. And Friday, another trough approaches from the west with an increase in clouds. Further refinement of this later-week outlook will take place on the next update.

TODAY: Cloud patches early to mid morning in some locations, otherwise a fair amount of sun then some additional clouds arriving later in the day. Highs 56-63 South Coast and Cape Cod, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 73-80 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers late evening and overnight. Lows 54-61. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible in the morning favoring areas north of I-90. A bit of rain possible near the South Coast. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A possible shower. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest South Coast. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 18-22)

My outlook continues to largely ignore medium range guidance in anticipation of some errors, so after an early unsettled start for the weekend of May 18-19 it should improve with a milder finish than it starts out. Fair weather early next week, maybe unsettled by middle of next week with milder weather.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 23-27)

Upper level low pressure may bring cooler and somewhat unsettled weather early to mid period – details TBD. Improvement may follow for Memorial Day Weekend which is May 25-27. Low confidence based on how far in the future this is, so follow updates.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 12-16)

An upper level low crosses there region today with a weak surface low passing to the south. By evening, it’s already moving out to the east. Instability and sun fuel will be limited today so I only expect a few pop up showers later in the day, mainly to the north of Boston, while anything with the low to the south passes well offshore. Monday, high pressure slides off the Mid Atlantic coast and we see milder weather. A warm front scoots through the region Monday night and may produce a few showers. As a result, Tuesday’s a warmer day with dry conditions during the day as an approaching cold front stays far enough to the north and west. This front finally brings showers to the region that night as it moves into and across the region. Medium range guidance has been advertising a slowing down of this front and a wave of low pressure bringing more rain for Wednesday, but recent trends are this taking place further and further south, and based on some recent happenings with models in relation to the overall pattern, I’m going to lean cloudy but not too wet for Wednesday, with more notable improvement for Thursday with drier air arriving. However that day we may have to watch for a pop up shower as we’ll have solar heating and cold air aloft.

TODAY: Partial sun, especially eastern areas through mid morning, otherwise clouds dominate, but sun breaks may return later in the day favoring northern and western areas. A pop up shower possible this afternoon, favoring southwestern NH and northern MA. Highs 57-64, coolest along the coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds decrease. Lows 46-53. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 56-63 South Coast and Cape Cod, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 54-61. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible, favoring areas south of I-90. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. A possible shower. Highs 56-63. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 17-21)

My outlook here largely ignores medium range guidance in anticipation of some errors that have been pretty consistent, so I lean toward a return to unsettled weather for a brief period May 17, improvement for the May 18-19 weekend which carries into early the following week along with a warm-up.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 22-26)

This period should feature upper level low pressure returning to dominate the pattern with a cool-down and some occasionally unsettled weather.

COMMENTARY

If you did not get to see last night’s display of the aurora borealis which was widespread across not only New England, but a good portion of the North America, including as far south as Alabama and Georgia, seek out photos online. I witnessed it myself and am in awe at how magnificent it was. I’d seen the display before, in a barely-visible state near the horizon a few times, but never close to this magnitude. Am I ever glad my sky forecast was wrong for most of the region. 🙂

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)

A large scale northeasterly flow continues today and the dry air that allowed the northern lights to be seen last night will help much of the region start the day with sun today, but a little more moisture coming from the Atlantic will help clouds to pop up and move in from the northeast, and a few of these can produce showers, though they will be isolated in nature, and most of the region will have another rain-free day. Upper level low pressure drifts into the region Sunday but the surface reflection of low pressure is rather weak and will move south of our area. At most, a few showers will work into the region Sunday afternoon but I’m not expecting very widespread coverage, making it possible that the entire weekend is rain-free for many areas. This feature exits Monday and that day, as well as Tuesday, will feature a warm up with a southwesterly air flow as an area of high pressure scoots to our south. A frontal boundary approaches later Tuesday, but I feel its associated showers will wait until sometime that night to move in. The front and a wave of low pressure likely combine for an unsettled day on Wednesday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Chance of a shower but most areas remain rain-free. Highs 57-64. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, mainly late in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 56-63 South Coast and Cape Cod, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 55-62. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)

Best chance of unsettled weather mid period. Overall pattern features a cool-down early in the period, then a warm-up later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)

Mild and fair to start, then a cooling trend with mid to late period unsettled weather possible.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 10-14)

The battle between moisture and dry air continues in our region for a few days. An area of low pressure passing south of New England this morning is starting the South Coast with a period of steady rain, with a little light rain further northwest from eastern CT to above the western reaches of the WHW forecast area in MA (CT Valley). All of this will be suppressed south while it slides east as dry air wins the battle by late morning, and the heavier overcast that sits over the region may thin out at times today. So while not as nice as yesterday turned out, we’re not facing a regionwide washout either. Another low pressure area passes by tonight and early Saturday, and this one brings some rain to the region from the South Coast to the MA South Shore, but much of that occurring prior to and right around sunrise, before that one makes an exit and dry air prevails for the most part. While there will be some breaks in the clouds to be seen Saturday, one difference from today is a slightly more unstable atmosphere can help trigger a few pop up showers, mainly in southern NH and northeastern MA, mainly during the midday hours. These should be spotty and not last long in any one area, and most of the region stays rain-free. Upper level low pressure moves into the region on Sunday and a weak surface low passes by to the south (again), and this day will turn out mainly cloudy with scattered showers around the region, but again not a widespread soaker. Early next week, this upper low has departed and we find ourselves in a warmer southwesterly flow with high pressure to our south and a frontal boundary slowly approaching in a ripply fashion from the northwest. While some episodic clouds from the frontal boundary will find their way into our region, we will otherwise see fair and mild weather, with of course a cooling influence where a southwest wind comes off ocean, especially along the South Coast. There’s some uncertainty as to whether or not the frontal boundary will be close enough by later Tuesday to bring a shower chance, so with low confidence it appears in this update today.

TODAY: Overcast morning including rain South Coast into mid morning. Mostly cloudy midday-afternoon. Highs 55-62, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy evening. Cloudy overnight with periods of rain South Coast to MA South Shore. Lows 46-53. Wind E-NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early-day rain potential for South Coast / Cape Cod, and patchy drizzle possible eastern coastal locations, otherwise clouds break for partial sun. A pop up shower possible especially midday hours favoring southern NH and northeastern MA. Highs 57-64. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, mainly late in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 56-63 South Coast and Cape Cod, 63-70 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Afternoon showers possible mainly western areas. Highs 68-75 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 15-19)

Cooling trend in general. Hard to time specific unsettled weather threats but a couple of them exist, probably very early period and again mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 20-24)

General best idea of pattern points to fair, milder weather to start this period then a return to somewhat unsettled weather later in the period with a cooling trend.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 9-13)

Forecasts always present challenges in the longer term as it’s naturally more difficult to predict the air flow through the atmosphere and its impact on a given region the further out from “now” you get. Sometimes those challenges are realized in a much shorter term. Such was the case yesterday. Yes, the forecast was “right” in terms of a warm front causing one swath of showers and embedded thunder earlier in the day and then an approaching cold front setting off showers and thunderstorms later. The hail potential was definitely realized in the storms with many reports of it across portions of southern New England. What was a bit of a surprise was the coverage of the second round of activity, and the persistence of it. I was definitely lead a bit astray by buying too much into shorter range guidance that had the activity, but less widespread and of a shorter duration. But now that show is over, and we have some other forecast adjustments to make. You might recall several days ago I indicated some hope for Thursday in a longer stretch of unsettled weather starting Wednesday, then abandoned the idea based on more pessimistic looking guidance. Well, once again, should have stuck with the other idea. High pressure indeed noses its way in enough to give us a fairly decent day today. While we won’t have wall to wall sun, there is a good mix of sun and clouds across the region to start the day, with some high clouds streaming in from the west above patchy lower level stratocumulus clouds drifting north to south. This north-to-south motion is indicative of that drier air flow at the surface, and the difficulty of the higher clouds from the west to overspread and thicken during the day today indicate somewhat drier air above us too. It is tonight, finally, when a wave of low pressure approaches New England from the southwest, and the surface wind turns more northeasterly, that we’ll see clouds collect in a more concentrated fashion. A few of the lower clouds around during the day can build up just enough to produce a few rain showers mainly over southern NH and the northern half of MA, but these will be rather isolated. From late evening tonight to the very early hours of Friday morning, we can see an area of rain from the low pressure area to our southwest moving into the region, only to be obliterated by a renewed push of drier air. While I expect cloud cover to be more dominant on Friday than it will be today, the rain chance will likely be held at bay again after that initial push, for most of the day and into the evening. Finally, the low pressure area makes its closest pass Friday night and first thing Saturday morning as it slides east northeast, to our south. This is when a little more wet weather can occur, but most of it looks like it will be toward the South Coast, especially Cape Cod, while much of the rest of the region may be spared or just see brief light rainfall. Behind that, a shift of wind to the north will dry the region out again, and breaks in the clouds allow partial sun for Saturday, which is definitely a more optimistic outlook than I was carrying before. Does this means the entire weekend is saved? Probably not, because it still looks like another upper low and associated surface trough will drift eastward into the region on Sunday when I cannot rule out some showers, but some guidance does keep the region mainly dry for much of the day, so the potential definitely exists to salvage much of the weekend rain-free. Monday’s weather looks ok as upper level low pressure starts out nearby then shifts to the east, with a sun/cloud mix and maybe a pop up shower.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A possible shower favoring southern NH and northern MA late afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring central MA, eastern CT, and RI late evening / overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Potential for early-day rain favoring the South Coast. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain returns to areas mainly near and south of I-90. Patchy drizzle possible elsewhere, especially eastern coastal locations. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early-day rain potential for South Coast / Cape Cod, and patchy drizzle possible eastern coastal locations, otherwise clouds break for partial sun with a chance of an afternoon pop-up shower. Highs 57-64. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, mainly late in the afternoon. Highs 57-64. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 14-18)

Early period milder and fair weather expected with a short-lived southwesterly flow as high pressure shifts offshore and a frontal boundary sits to the north and west. After this, a cooling trend and occasionally unsettled with some wet weather episodes middle to latter part of next week. More precise timing and details TBD of course.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 19-23)

Medium range trends point to fair, cool then milder weather to start this period then a return to somewhat unsettled weather later in the period.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 8-12)

A “dynamic duo” impacts today’s weather across the WHW forecast area. First up, a warm front with good instability moves in quick fashion from west to east across the region this morning and midday with the early sun you saw if you were up being lost behind thickening clouds, followed by areas of showers with potential embedded thunder in some locations. Behind this a break comes with some thinning and breaking of the clouds. Then the second member of the duo comes along from the west northwest from mid afternoon to early evening – this a cold front that will set off scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, possibly a cluster or two a little more organized. Any of these heavier cells have the potential produce hail of up to 1 inch in diameter and a lower probability of a damaging wind gust, so while the chances are low that any one location sees this, keep an eye to the sky (and the radar) as we move through the afternoon. This exits early evening, possibly with rainbows in showers’ wakes in locations where it occurs before sunset as some partial clearing can occur right behind them. Another swath of clouds will slide across the region later this evening as the air flow shifts to northerly, but this will be followed by some additional partial clearing overnight into early Thursday as an area of drier air arrives. This means a little bit of sunshine can be seen to start the day Thursday, before clouds thicken up ahead of the next low pressure area. This will the first in a series of 2 or 3 low pressure waves that travel just south of our region through early Saturday, resulting in a much cooler and unsettled stretch of weather. It won’t rain all the time, but all in all it will be pretty dreary and chilly with a regionwide northeasterly to easterly air flow. This finally starts to back to the north during Saturday as low pressure pulls away, but upper level low pressure in the region will keep the clouds locked in and still the chance of a passing shower or patch of drizzle. So, it’ll clear out Sunday, right? Not so fast. Just as our system departs, another will be on its heels via the Ohio Valley, and will move across the region during Sunday which now looks like a slightly milder but still unsettled day. Sorry!

TODAY: Early sun east, thicker clouds from west quickly with showers and possibly a thunderstorm west to east across the area mid through late morning. Thinning / breaking clouds with partial sun possible first half of afternoon then heavier clouds move through again with scattered to broken showers and isolated thunderstorms, possibly containing hail and gusty wind. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, S-SW 5-15 MPH afternoon, shifting to WSW late-day. Winds can be variable and over 20 MPH with brief strong gusts around any heavier showers/storms.

TONIGHT: Early-evening showers South Coast / Cape Cod, otherwise variably cloudy. Lows 46-51. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partial sun morning, then cloudy. Periodic rain by late-day. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periodic rain and drizzle. Areas of fog forming. Lows 46-53. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periodic rain and drizzle, especially through midday. Patchy fog early. Highs 48-55, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle and possibly a shower. Lows 45-52. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and possible showers. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle. Lows 43-50. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of drizzle and showers. Highs 55-62. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 13-17)

Improving weather early next week – drier & milder – as upper level low pressure moves away and high pressure moves in. This will be followed by another cooling trend as the next upper level trough and a couple disturbances associated with it bring more clouds and some wet weather chances mid to late next week.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 18-22)

Cool, drier weather early period, then a warming trend. Unsettled weather may return by the end of the period.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 7-11)

Today is going to be an example of how it can be “mild” or “warm” behind a cold front. By definition, the front that quietly slipped through the region last night was indeed a cold front. It was the leading edge of a continental polar air mass originating well to our north. However, over time, with the help of dry air and a high sun angle, that air mass has modified, so our day today in the “polar” air mass will be in many areas the warmest so far this year as high pressure moves over our region. The air mass is also drier than yesterday, when you may have noticed the humidity spiking up (my dehumidifier in the basement, which comes on automatically, kicked on for the first time since October last night). With a light wind today, the coast will be vulnerable to sea breezes, so those areas won’t enjoy the level of warmth inland locations will, but that’s typical for this time of year. Wherever you may be, if you can get out to enjoy today for a while, do so, because a rather lengthy stretch of unsettled weather pounces on us starting tomorrow lasting into the upcoming weekend. It starts as a low pressure area exits the Great Lakes and heads our way. A warm front ahead of it will bring a batch of showers through the region in the morning, then a break before showers and even a possible thunderstorm visit later in the day and evening from west to east (best chance of thunder to the west). This will be with a cold front as low pressure slides just north of our region. The front will move through at night and settle just to our south Thursday and Friday, where it will become a travel lane for a couple areas of low pressure. These will bring us periods of rain, drizzle, and very cool weather under a thick overcast both Thursday and Friday. The final low center will start to pull away from the region Saturday as we start the weekend, but enough guidance shows me that being a slow enough process that I’m reluctant to be too optimistic about clearing out that day. Will watch trends.

TODAY: A few clouds near Cape Cod and the Islands early in the morning, otherwise sunny, with some high clouds appearing in the west later today. Highs ranging from near 60 along the South Coast and Cape Cod to 71-78 most inland areas, with some cooling along the coast during the afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely during the morning. Breaking/thinning clouds midday and early afternoon. Heavier clouds mid-late afternoon with additional showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH in the morning, S 5-15 MPH in the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm evening. Lows 46-51. Wind SW 5-15 MPH early, shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Occasional rain/drizzle, especially in the afternoon. Highs 52-59 except cooler coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Patchy fog. Temperatures generally steady 48-55, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with rain/drizzle and areas of fog during the morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind E shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 12-16)

Another disturbance may bring a shower opportunity on May 12 to finish off the weekend but it should also be somewhat milder that day. Trend is for drier/warmer weather early to middle portion of next week before additional unsettled weather arrives toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 17-21)

Low confidence forecast, but upper level low pressure should keep it on the cooler side, unsettled to start then a drying trend, with finally a late period warm up possible as the pattern opens up and becomes more zonal again.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 6-10)

This Monday-Friday 5-day period, known to many as the “work week”, will feature quite a contrast of weather from one end to the other, and in some cases in the same day. Clarification is presented in this discussion. Read on. Today, a disturbance exits early, and start-of-day scattered showers, a few heavy, along the South Coast will exit. For much of the day, we’ll sit in a mild and increasingly humid but light southerly air flow. Inland areas warm nicely, while in coastal areas the temperature will be held back more by the ocean’s influence. Later today, a cold front dropping into the region from the northwest can and likely will trigger scattered showers and maybe even an isolated thunderstorm. Where these do occur, they will be brief, and maybe good for a couple rainbows on departure. This front sets us up for the pick of the week, Tuesday, dominated by high pressure. The air mass remains mild behind the front, so inland areas warm easily to 70+ for high temps Tuesday afternoon, while coastal areas are vulnerable to a healthy sea breeze. By mid to late afternoon a temperature contrast of up to 20 degrees may exist between some coastal and inland communities, another distinctive characteristic of New England’s springtime weather. Enjoy Tuesday, wherever you are, because the weather takes a turn after that. A low pressure disturbance and frontal system move in from the west via the Great Lakes on Wednesday, bringing unsettled and cooling weather to us as the wind turns more easterly over the region. The frontal boundary will sit mostly just to the south of our region Thursday and Friday while a couple waves of low pressure travel along it. I was a little more optimistic about Thursday’s weather previously, but not as much now, so I’m just forecasting both of those days to be generally cloudy, occasionally wet, and quite cool. Sorry!

TODAY: Early showers exit the South Coast and a late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible from northwest to southeast (least likely South Coast), otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67 coast, 68-75 inland, with some cooling in coastal areas after midday. Wind S up to 10 MPH, may turn SE in eastern coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming in inland lower elevations. Lows 48-55. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77 except 60s coast where some areas can cool below 60 in the afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 47-54. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Good chance of showers. Highs 58-65 in the morning, then cooling in the afternoon. Wind variable becoming E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle in the evening. Lows 46-51. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Occasional showers/drizzle, especially in the afternoon. Highs 52-59 except cooler coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT / FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Patchy fog. Temperatures generally steady 48-55, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 11-15)

The May 11-12 weekend starts cloudy, cool, and somewhat wet, but may have improvement with some partial clearing and drier weather before it’s over. A drier interlude early next week but may turn unsettled by the end of the period, middle of next week, yet again. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 16-20)

Overall pattern expected to feature upper level low pressure US Northeast and southeastern Canada, a partial block, and a generally cool and occasionally unsettled set-up here, but still plenty of rain-free time too.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 5-9)

Spring in our part of the world is not all sunshine, warm temperatures, blooming flowers, and singing birds. Yes, we get any and all of that, and spring can have many nice days, but it also is a season of change, and while we get pushes of warm air from warmer parts of the country to the south and southwest in preview of summer, we still have a pretty cold ocean next to us, and often still some snow left to melt in parts of nearby Canada where some pretty cold air masses can still reside. This mix makes for volatility, and depending on the pattern, sometimes stretches of similar weather for many days. While there is some nice weather in this 5-day forecast, it’s limited, so pay attention if you want to make some plans to enjoy it…

High pressure that kept us fair and cool with varying amounts of clouds Friday and Saturday has given way and now we’re seeing things moving more from west to east across the region, which will be the case for several days. We start out by seeing a trough and frontal system move into and across the region today and tonight with a cloudy sky. Most of the wet weather from this system in our area will occur during the midday and afternoon hours, into tonight. It pushes off to the east early Monday with maybe a lingering shower. And while high pressure begins to build in on Monday, just enough instability will be around to maybe trigger one more brief passing shower in a few locations during the afternoon hours. The pick of the coming week is going to be an easy one: Tuesday. That day, high pressure builds in and we’ll have a mild air mass in place. Away from any direct cooling influences of the ocean, many areas will see high temperatures of 70 or greater that day. But it won’t last. On Wednesday, a disturbance and frontal boundary will move through the region from northwest to southeast, returning unsettled weather to the region. We may get a break for part of Thursday if high pressure to the north is strong enough.

TODAY: Cloudy. A few showers possible mainly west of I-95 midday hours. Widespread showers arrive from west to east mid through late afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with widespread showers this evening. Mostly cloudy with showers diminishing west to east overnight. Areas of fog forming. Lows 48-55. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds and showers lingering in eastern MA and RI early, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with an additional shower possible in the mid to late afternoon hours. Highs 57-64 South Coast / Cape Cod, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs ranging widely from 55-60 Islands & Cape Cod warming as you go west and north until 75-80 west of the I-95 belt. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes developing.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 51-58. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Good chance of showers. Highs 58-65 in the morning, then cooling in the afternoon. Wind variable becoming E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and drizzle in the evening. Lows 46-51. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 10-14)

A cool and unsettled stretch of weather is expected during the May 10-12 time period as a series of weak low pressure systems pass over and south of the region. High pressure builds back in with improving weather later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 15-19)

Large scale pattern should feature upper level low pressure in the US Northeast and southwestern Canada, but weakening later in the period. This pattern would be slightly unsettled but overall drier, and limit the ability to warm significantly.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 4-8)

An extension of Canadian high pressure delivered enough dry air to clear the region out later yesterday and holds on today so we get a pretty decent day to start the weekend today. But this won’t last too long, as the block that the high pressure area is part of is letting go somewhat as a trough and frontal system move in from the west on Sunday, turning the weather unsettled again. But a more progressive pattern for a few days does mean we’ll see a clearing trend for Monday, though a little patience may be needed, but it will pay off with a Top Ten kind of day on Tuesday – much more sunshine and warmth for the region, except some cooling influences in some coastal areas where wind comes off the water. When midweek arrives, so does our next stretch of unsettled weather. More about that later. First, focus on the 2 or 3 really nice days coming up in the shorter term…

TODAY: Plenty of sun, with intervals of clouds. Highs 54-61 coast, 61-68 inland. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers arriving west to east late morning on. Highs 52-59 coast, 59-66 inland. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

MONDAY: Clouds and showers lingering in eastern MA and RI early, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64 South Coast / Cape Cod, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs ranging widely from 55-60 Islands & Cape Cod warming as you go west and north until 75-80 west of the I-95 belt. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes developing.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 51-58. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/drizzle developing. Temperatures steady 51-58. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 9-13)

While there may be a drier interval early in the period, the general easterly flow continues into the May 11-12 weekend with cool, unsettled weather more likely, with some improvement potential late weekend / early following week (May 12-13).

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 14-18)

Overall spring block or slow-moving pattern should feature upper level low pressure over or just east of the region – US Northeast to southeastern Canada. This pattern is seasonably cool but not too wet, despite some unsettled episodes with shower chances.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 3-7)

The pattern during the next 5 days will transition from blocked to more progressive. For today and Saturday, while we’ll have a fair amount of clouds around both days, we’ll be rain-free as high pressure in Atlantic Canada extends its reach into our region. Overall, the region will be noticeably cooler than yesterday was, with the coastal areas the coolest – typical for springtime with high pressure in control. Sunday, the high slides away and a frontal system moves in from the west with clouds and eventually showers, which seem more likely to occur in the afternoon and evening than earlier in the day. This system will exit early Monday with no more than lingering start-of-day showers in southeastern areas, but high pressure will build in with fair weather and mild to warm air early in the week, again with many coastal areas being cooler than interior locations.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy start but a partial clearing trend from east to west allows intervals of sun to become more prevalent with time. Highs range from 53-60 coast to 60-67 inland. Wind NE-E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind E under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 54-61 coast, 61-68 inland. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers arriving west to east afternoon-evening. Highs 52-59 coast, 59-66 inland. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Patchy fog. Lows 50-57. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

MONDAY: Clouds and showers lingering in eastern MA and RI early, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64 South Coast / Cape Cod, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 68-75 except cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 8-12)

Unsettled weather is most likely May 8 with a trough and front passing by, and again in a potential longer stretch as blocking returns mid to late period, along with a cooling trend (low pressure to south, high pressure to north). Will watch this trend and adjust details.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 13-17)

Overall spring block or slow-moving pattern should feature upper level low pressure over or just east of the region – US Northeast to southeastern Canada. This pattern is seasonably cool but not too wet, despite some unsettled episodes with shower chances.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 2-6)

Today we manage to flip the air flow around to more southerly, which will allow it to warm in much of the region, less so where this air flow is off the ocean. But even with that, all coastal areas can be vulnerable to sea breeze development because of the weak air flow in place. A small but fairly potent disturbance can pop a few showers and even an isolated thunderstorm later today, favoring southern NH and northeastern MA. As it moves away, Canadian high pressure will begin to nose its way into the region, setting us up with a cooler northeast to east wind for Friday and Saturday. During this time clouds will often be dominant, but intervals of sun can occur both days, with the greater chance of longer sunny intervals on Saturday. Sunday, a frontal system moving in from the west will do so rather slowly being up against high pressure to its east, but will turn the day rather cloudy with a chance of showers. Improvement should occur for Monday, in theory, but there may not be a lot of push of dry air to clear us out that day.

TODAY: Lots of clouds / limited sun. Late-day showers and a chance of a thunderstorm favoring southern NH and northeastern MA. Highs 68-75 except cooler coastal areas. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. An evening shower possible. Lows 46-53. Wind shifting to NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 53-60 coast, 60-67 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E-SE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 54-61 coast, 61-68 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 58-65. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 50-57. Wind SW to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 7-11)

This period is vulnerable to unsettled weather with a frontal boundary in the region and a couple disturbances moving through (timing TBD). Temperatures fairly close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 12-16)

General pattern looks spring blocky with upper level low pressure nearby / over the US Northeast to southeastern Canada. This is not a wet pattern in general, but can present a lot of clouds and limit warmth.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 1-5)

May you have a happy May, which starts today! The weather might not make too many people happy though, as it looks rather grey. That said, we will see a little bit of improvement while a wave of low pressure to our southeast moves away and a little drier air moves in from the north today. But the clouds in place may be stubborn to break, in some areas anyway. While we sit on the cool side of a frontal boundary, more clouds and a shower chance will be with us as a disturbance moves through Thursday. Some partial clearing can occur as high pressure in Atlantic Canada noses its way southwestward into our region during Friday and Saturday. Showers chances are absent from my forecast those two days as triggers and disturbances stay away. Sunday, however, the arrival of a frontal system from the west renews that chance, as the high pressure area gives way.

TODAY: Cloudy with lingering light rain/drizzle possible early, then clouds dominate but may break at times. Highs 53-60, warmest inland. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few showers possible. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A possible shower in the evening. Lows 45-52. Wind SE to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 53-60 coast, 60-67 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E-SE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 54-61 coast, 61-68 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 58-65. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 6-10)

While there will be rain-free / fair weather times, this period is vulnerable to unsettled weather with a frontal boundary in the region and a couple/few disturbances to traverse the region. Temperatures fairly close to normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 11-15)

Similar pattern continues heading into mid May. No major storminess, but a couple disturbances to threaten unsettled weather and varying the temperature pattern, also cooling influences from the Atlantic in play.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 30 – MAY 4)

This is the weather pattern that will separate experience from inexperience when trying to forecast weather even out to a couple days in this region. Guidance at one point would have one believe on just looking at it that a string of fair weather days with highs in the 60s and 70s would be the pattern, and yup we sure had some nice warm air around parts of the region on Monday with mainly fair weather, but not completely fair weather, as a solid batch of showers went through southern NH and northeastern MA at one point during midday with a passing disturbance. This took place in a northwesterly flow aloft while a surface cold front, back-door style, slipped through the region, turning it cooler from northeast to southwest, but not quickly enough to take away the warmth the further west and south you were. So, now that we have all that explained, the rest of the forecast should be easy, right? Wrong. That boundary that went by will sit to our west and south through midweek, and a series of disturbances brings shower chances. Even some thunderstorms went through southern areas early this morning. Additional showers and even thunderstorms are possible today before a weak high pressure area to the north dries us out for Wednesday. After that, another disturbance returns the shower chance ofr Thursday. What once looked like a high pressure area slipping off to the south and east to warm us up for late in the week now looks more like another eastern Canadian high to drive more cool air into the region. The high center will be in the Atlantic Canada region with a nose extending southwestward into New England Friday and Saturday. This brings mainly fair weather but does not allow a significant warm up to take place, especially in coastal areas. Don’t be surprised if part of this outlook is different tomorrow – springtime in New England!

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers around mostly through midday. A batch of heavier showers with embedded thunder favoring Southern New Hampshire and northeastern Mass late morning. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.,

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain. Areas of drizzle/fog. Lows 43-50. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with lingering light rain/drizzle possible early, then breaking clouds. Highs 53-60, warmest inland. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a possible shower in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind SE to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 53-60 coast, 61-68 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E-SE under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 55-62 coast, 62-69 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 5-9)

This remains a low confidence forecast. Frontal boundary brings a threat of showers on May 5. Another disturbance renews the shower threat at mid period, but timing uncertain. Fair weather days are most likely May 6 and 9. Temperatures variable, but not far from normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 10-14)

While several systems threaten with some unsettled weather, it does not look excessively wet, nor do temperatures stray very far from normal for mid May. But low confidence outlook, so check updates.

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 29 – MAY 3)

Today’s weather will be quite nice, in most areas, most of the time, but the temperature by day’s end is going to end up varying significantly from one part of the area to another. We had a mild night sitting in the “warm sector” or a warm air mass, and while some clouds trying to move in from the northwest can limit the sun, we’ll still warm up nicely, but this will be thwarted along the coast by a sea breeze by midday, and then systematically wiped out by a back door cold front that arrives from northeast to southwest later today and tonight. Some midday showers can slide across southern NH and nearby northeastern MA. Other than that there’s the potential for a pop up shower over inland areas by evening. With the front sliding far enough southwest, high pressure in eastern Canada and weak low pressure moving along the boundary to our south Tuesday and early Wednesday, we’ll have the opportunity to see some rain at times, though not very much, with most of it Tuesday night, but it will be quite cool with a region-wide onshore flow from the chilly Atlantic. Drier air will result in some improving weather during Wednesday as the low moves away and high pressure exerts a little more influence. There are a few adjustments being made to the forecast in today’s update for later in the week. With that boundary still sitting to our south, stronger high pressure still to the north, and a weak disturbance moving through the region in a northwesterly air flow aloft, Thursday’s forecast is a bit different in comparison to my ideas of just 24 hours ago. It looks cloudier and not as warm. We may even see a few showers around as the warmer air to the south fights to move back in, but doesn’t make it. Not even sure it makes it in on Friday either when at the very least the coast is likely to be much cooler than inland areas as high pressure from Canada noses in with fair weather.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Midday showers southern NH and northeastern MA. A late-day pop-up shower possible west of I-495. Highs ranging from 60-67 coast to 67-74 inland occurring by early afternoon, but falling back to the 50s coastal areas with a sharper temperature contrast heading inland during mid to late afternoon. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated rain showers in the evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 43-50. Wind shifting to NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Highs 50-57, coolest coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain. Areas of drizzle/fog. Lows 44-51. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with lingering light rain/drizzle possible early, then breaking clouds. Highs 53-60, warmest inland. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind E under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A shower possible. Highs 52-59, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a possible shower in the evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind SE to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 55-62 coast, 63-70 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 4-8)

This forecast is not high confidence so check upcoming updates. Currently thinking the May 4-5 weekend starts mild with fair weather, then a front moves through with showers for a portion of May 5. Next system with a shower threat around May 7 otherwise a fairly dry pattern mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 9-13)

Generally dry pattern with a cooling trend with dominant air flow out of eastern Canada.