DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 14-18)

Colder times are ahead in a more sustained way than we’ve seen for a while. It starts with the passage of an arctic cold front today. This front will cross the region from west to east this afternoon and produce a band of convection. While there may be an isolated rain/snow shower ahead of it and some isolated to scattered snow showers/squalls behind it, the main line, which I expect to cross the WHW forecast area between about 2:30 and 6:00 p.m., will be pretty solid across most of the area. There may be rain involved in it the further east and southeast you are, with higher chance of that south of Boston, but even areas that start with rain can flip very quickly to snow. Thunder is possible with the main convective band, and snowfall rates that can drop up to 2 inches of snow in under a 1 hour period. Strong wind gusts and very low visibility will accompany this line. Also, a quick accumulation of snow, even if rain falls first, will freeze rather quickly as darkness falls and temperatures drop behind the frontal boundary. Please be aware of these hazards if out and about this afternoon and evening. Monitor much like you’d monitor for possible thunderstorms.

Cold air settles in tonight and hangs around for the Monday MLK Jr holiday and beyond. Our next storm threat will be a wave of low pressure on an offshore frontal boundary passing by to our southeast on Tuesday and Tuesday night. This looks like it will produce a widespread light to moderate snowfall for the region mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening. Dry and cold weather returns after this event for midweek.

TODAY: Mostly sunny morning. Clouds advance west to east afternoon with a few isolated rain/snow showers by mid afternoon then a squall line of mostly snow and some graupel (some rain east of I-95 mainly south of Boston) with accumulations of a coating to 1 inch of snow likely and locally up to 2 inches, including possible thunder. Watch for rapid icing up of untreated surfaces during and after. Highs 36-43. Wind SW 15-25 MPH shifting to W by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with a brief snow shower/squall possible early, then clearing. Lows 16-23. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill falling below 10.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible. Wind chill below 20 at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds arrive overnight. Lows 16-23. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds thicken. Snow develops during the afternoon south to north. Highs 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy in the evening with snow likely. Expected snowfall accumulation 3 to 5 inches but under 3 inches possible South Coast. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 19-23)

Colder / active pattern continues. Watching for a winter storm threat later January 19 into the start of the January 20-21 weekend. Another disturbance may bring snow showers later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 24-28)

Cold eases with more seasonable temperatures heading into late month, but the pattern remains active with at least one storm threat during this period, leaning mid period.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 13-17)

This 3-day weekend (MLK Jr. Day on Monday) will feature changing weather daily. We start with the second major storm this week in our dynamic, active pattern. Low pressure cranks through the Great Lakes today on its way to eastern Canada / Hudson’s Bay. The ongoing impact is the heaviest rainfall as the day dawns, along with the strongest wind gusts expected with that system, mainly from the southeast up to around 30 MPH inland and 50+ MPH in coastal areas. This is lightly weaker than the last system but still capable of producing damage, especially to older trees weakened by previous batterings and sitting in ground that hasn’t had a chance to freeze. And while the general rainfall amounts will be less in this event, more on the order of 1 to 2 inches with spot heavier amounts, any moderate to heavy rainfall just exacerbates flooding we haven’t quite recovered from yet on rivers and streams, not to mention the shorter term poor drainage flooding and ponding of water on road ways. One plus is that this system occurring on a weekend morning means there is less auto travel and related impact. The worst of the rain and wind will be ending from west to east during the course of the early to mid morning hours. A secondary low pressure system on the triple point of the system (where warm and cold fronts meet to form an occlusion) will move right across our region this midday and early afternoon. There are two things to note with this. Areas that get into the warm sector make a run at 60 for a high temp, at least well into the 50s. This will be RI and eastern MA. The other thing is you’ll notice much lighter wind during the passage / development of the new low over the region as the pressure over the region will be rather similar, with little gradient to create wind flow. This low won’t really get its act together until it starts to move across Maine later today and into eastern Canada after. Later today we will notice the wind pick up from the southwest behind this system, and as a low pressure trough trailing it swings through, additional rain showers, even brief downpours, can occur up until early evening before exiting into the water to our east. The other major aspect of today’s storm is tidal flooding. The bad news is we have astronomically higher tides than the last event. The good news is we should not see a storm surge like the last event and the high tide will occur after the strongest winds have subsided. But the ocean / surf will still be quite rough and splash over and flooding is still likely there, while vulnerable areas along marshland (Hampton Beach NH, for example) will see another round of higher water.

During tonight, we’ll have breezy conditions with a gusty west wind, and this should help dry off many surfaces before the temperature can fall to around or slightly below freezing, especially away from the coastline. But areas that do still have water on the ground can ice over, so use caution if driving or walking. Ground that looks wet can indeed be a sheet of ice. Temperatures will rise sufficiently Sunday morning-midday to take care of this issue, but colder air is inbound for Sunday night and a more rapid freeze up of any leftover water on the ground will take place.

Speaking of Sunday and the arrival of cold. It won’t happen right away. First, while cooler than today most certainly, it will still manage to get to 40 in many areas, but a disturbance moving southwest to northeast across New England during the afternoon will drag a trough and cold front through, and this will ignite showers of rain, graupel, and snow, with precipitation type depending on location and timing of passing showers. Snow shower / snow squall chances are higher to the west, with more of a variety / mix in the I-95 belt, and rain showers toward the coast. Any of these can quickly, but very briefly, reduce visibility, and where snow squalls occur, a quick accumulation can make roads and walkways very slippery. A few follow up snow showers are possible into evening as the colder air arrives in earnest. This will lead us to a bright but dry and cold holiday on Monday, with a gusty breeze and below normal temperatures, and needing to talk about wind chill readings for the first time in quite a while. And while this is by no means to be a harsh arctic outbreak of any kind, it will feel pretty cold in comparison to the mild weather that’s dominated early winter so far. This brings us to our next weather event to keep track of. And that is a snow chance that comes on Tuesday. This system will be a fairly flat wave of low pressure passing to our southeast. In order to draw the precipitation area far enough north to impact our region, we will need to see another trough to the north partially capture the system. I believe this will occur, but not in such a way that delivers a widespread major snowfall. We’re instead looking at a short-duration, minor to potentially moderate one, with the higher chance of moderate amounts being the further east and south you are. This system exits quickly and we return to dry but cold weather for Wednesday. Yes, the warmer pattern is finally departing the Northeast. In fact, the entire US Mainland east of the Rockies will see below normal temperatures next week.

TODAY: Cloudy through mid morning with rain tapering to rain showers southwest to northeast. Areas of fog especially over the coastal plain midday into afternoon. Mostly cloudy remainder of day with passing rain showers possible. Highs 45-52 northwestern higher elevations, 53-60 elsewhere. Wind SE shifting to SW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts into mid morning, variable 5-15 MPH late morning-midday, SW 15-25 MPH mid afternoon on.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing showers of rain (nearest coast), mix/graupel (I-95 belt), and snow (interior areas) during the afternoon. Highs 36-43. Wind SW 15-25 MPH shifting to W by late in the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with a brief snow shower/squall possible early, then clearing. Lows 16-23. Wind W 5-15 MPH. Wind chill falling below 10.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible. Wind chill below 20 at times.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Clouds arrive overnight. Lows 16-23. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds thicken. Snow develops during the afternoon south to north. Highs 25-32. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy in the evening with snow likely. Breaking clouds overnight. Lows 15-22. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 27-34. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 18-22)

Colder / active pattern continues. Watching for a winter storm threat later January 19 into the start of the January 20-21 weekend. Another disturbance may bring snow showers late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 23-27)

Cold eases with more seasonable temperatures heading into late month, but the pattern remains active with at least one storm threat during this period, leaning mid to late period.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 12-16)

While folks are driven to look past the upcoming storm at a potential that guidance can’t get a good handle on, just because there are snowflakes involved, it’s important to not lose focus on the fact we have another significant storm just hours away from arriving here, and prolonging issues created by the previous one. If there’s some good news, it’s that the overall impact of this one may and should end up somewhat less than its predecessor, but with astronomically higher tides than the last one, it’s not going to take much to put water back into places that saw it a few days ago – Hampton Beach NH, for one example, and other locations as well. This will be taking place during Saturday’s midday high tide cycle, but of course the impacts can begin hours before high tide when winds are strongest from the southeast with the event. Timing-wise, rain/wind will be most prominent in the overnight hours from late tonight to around sunrise Saturday, but with the storm still passing by and some decent wind, we can’t ignore the coastal flooding potential from the high tide that comes a bit later. Rainfall potential and wind potential are a little lower (about 1 or 2 inches lower and about 10 to 20 MPH lower, respectively, than the previous event), but still enough to cause additional issues – street flooding, stream and river flooding, and pockets of wind damage and resultant power outages. The low that causes all this takes a track somewhat similar to the last one. With the air a little less cold than before the last storm, any snow that occurs at the very start of the precipitation tonight will be brief and confined to highest elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH, but also comes at a time when it would not impact heavier vehicular travel – late at night – whereas the last one showed up during the Tuesday evening commute.

Moving on from the storm, as we go through the holiday weekend we’ll be introduced to a new weather pattern – a colder one. You’ll notice it with a colder trend, not so much Saturday, but later Sunday and Monday. During Sunday, a front has to cross the region and may produce a shower of rain, mix, or snow, depending on location and timing, so we’ll have to keep an eye on that. MLK Jr Day on Monday looks dry but with below normal temperatures. We then turn our attention to the next storm threat, which guidance waffles around with this far in advance, and that’s not unusual. The pattern supports a good shot at some snow here arriving on Tuesday. The magnitude and details of this potential need to be brought into focus, and can be done so over the coming few days.

TODAY: Patchy clouds but plenty of sun during the morning. Increasing clouds this afternoon. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain arrives midnight and after from southwest to northeast, may start as snow north and west of Boston. Lows 33-40 early, rising overnight. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH evening, SE 15-35 MPH with gusts above 40 MPH inland and above 50 MPH coast overnight, strongest toward dawn.

SATURDAY: Cloudy through mid morning with rain ending southwest to northeast. Variably cloudy remainder of day – passing rain shower possible. Highs 48-55. Wind SE shifting to SW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, especially early.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A rain or snow shower possible in the afternoon Highs 35-42. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 18-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 16-23. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow. Highs 25-32. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 17-21)

Early snow chance January 17. Another storm threat late January 19 to January 20 window. Much TBD regarding the later-period threat, but overall pattern as both active and colder.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 22-26)

One or two opportunities for passing storms to deliver precipitation as the pattern remains active, but also remains colder. This continues the opportunities for additional snowfall.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 11-15)

Our active pattern continues. But there are also changes ahead. But let’s go one step at a time, starting with a couple more tranquil days today and Friday. Weak high pressure in general control of our weather, but an inversion in the lower atmosphere is causing an extensive blanket of broken clouds that will limit sun today, and just when they start to thin out, some higher level clouds will arrive with a disturbance passing by the region. I’ve removed any chance of precipitation from the short-term forecast though as I don’t think that disturbance has the ability to do it. And while the day will be tranquil Friday, clouds will also dominate ahead of our next storm system. At least the air will remain on the mild side as the region deals with cleanup from the previous storm. River flooding will peak today in most areas in the wake of that storm, before it recedes a bit on Friday. But look out, because another significant storm is set to impact the region Friday night into Saturday. This low pressure area is set to take a somewhat similar track to its predecessor, into the Great Lakes region. This puts us on the warm side of the storm, but it’s not “warmth” that we need to worry about. There may be just enough cold air for brief snow in higher elevations of north central MA and southwestern NH, but less impactful than last time since its a brief period and also occurring outside of main commute time (late Friday night). Otherwise this will be a rain event, a little less in scope than the last one, with a more general 1 to 2 inch rainfall. However, any appreciable rainfall will just prolong any ongoing flooding. Additionally, another period of strong winds is anticipated, maybe a little less than the last event but still enough to result in some tree / property damage. As with the last event, the strongest winds will be near the coast. Unfortunately, we’re also looking at another round of coastal flooding, especially around the time of Saturday’s late morning / midday high tide. Astronomical tides are a little higher than they were in the last event. Hopefully, the slightly weaker nature of this event will be enough to compensate and not make the flooding any more extensive than the previous episode. We will have to monitor this closely during the event, but it’s wise for anybody potentially effected to be ready for similar flooding. Improving weather is due as we move through Saturday afternoon and night. But this time, instead of staying mild like in the wake of the storm before it, there is colder air to tap and deliver into the region as we move through the remainder of the holiday weekend Sunday and Monday. Dry weather will accompany the colder trend.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 40-47. Highs 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 40-47. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain develops, may start as snow north and west of Boston. Lows 33-40 early, rising overnight. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH evening, SE 15-35 MPH with gusts above 40 MPH inland and above 50 MPH coast overnight.

SATURDAY: Cloudy morning with rain likely. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SE-SW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts, especially early.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 21-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY (MLK JR DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 16-20)

Colder weather pattern with temperatures near to below normal. Storm threats January 16 and 20, the first most likely a snow event for most or all of the region. The one later in the period TBD for regionwide precip-type and other details.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 21-25)

One or two opportunities for passing storms to deliver precipitation as the pattern remains active, but also colder. This increases opportunities for additional snowfall.

STORM REVIEW

We’re not quite done with our storm yet, as it impacts the region today too, but the early snow, most of the rain, and the strongest winds are history. The expectation was for 1 to 3 inches of snow at the outset in areas well northwest of Boston, and the reports I have seen indicate about 1 inch in North Chelmsford MA to 2.4 inches at Fitchburg MA. Rainfall expectations were also 1 to 3 inches, with most reports I have seen so far being between 1.50 and 3.00 inches. Street flooding was prominent during the event, and stream and river flooding will be an issue over the next 2 or 3 days as we see run off from rain and melted snow combined. Top wind gusts came in pretty much in the expected range, around or a little over 40 MPH well inland building up to 55-65 MPH in coastal areas, (65 MPH recorded at Chatham MA). Potential wind gusts of up to 70 MPH were expected and a gust of 70 MPH was reported atop Blue Hill in Milton MA at the famous observatory there.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 10-14)

The low pressure area that gave us our wet and windy event will continue to impact the region today and tonight with gusty winds from the southwest and west, though not as strong as what we saw during the rainfall. Additional rain showers around this morning will exit from west to east, and from here on its dry with the exception of a possible additional rain shower across the hilly terrain of north central MA and southern NH late today or this evening. Additional cloudiness moves across western and northern portions of the WHW forecast area into tonight while a clearing trend takes place elsewhere. Thursday we lose the influence of the big low, but a smaller disturbance brings some additional clouds into the region, and with slightly colder air having filtered in, a quick shower of light snow may take place, again favoring northwestern parts of the region from north central MA to southern NH, late in the day. Otherwise it’ll be too dry for this to do much. As we remain in an active pattern, we have another significant storm to contend with. I’ve been wondering if this system would end up further southeast than its predecessor, but it appears that the upper air pattern will be similar enough that this one will take a similar track to the one we just had, with similar results too, maybe to a slightly lesser degree overall. That said, it still remains a high probability that we get hit with another significant storm later Friday into early Saturday. More detail to come on impacts. Behind this, the cold air delivery will be stronger, so as we head into the middle of the holiday weekend it will be dry (maybe a few snow flurries), and windy with temperatures near to a little below normal.

TODAY: Cloudy with additional rain showers ending from west to east early. Clouds break for sun at times thereafter. A late day rain shower possible north central MA and southwestern NH. Highs 50-57 early, except 40s some far northwestern areas, then falling into the 40s throughout the region. Wind SW-W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts at times.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds at times central to northeastern MA and southern NH, with only a few clouds elsewhere. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day snow shower possible higher elevations of north central MA to southwestern NH. Highs 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain develops, may start as snow north and west of Boston. Lows 33-40 early, rising overnight. Wind E-SE 5-15 MPH, increasing overnight.

SATURDAY: Cloudy morning with rain likely. Breaking clouds afternoon. Highs 46-53. Wind SE-SW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A snow shower possible. Lows 20-27. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A snow shower possible. Highs 28-35. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 15-19)

Storm threat window January 15-16. Fair weather trend follows. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 20-24)

One or two opportunities for passing storms to deliver precipitation as the pattern is still active, but also colder. This increases opportunities for snow.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 9-13)

After a briefly colorful sunrise for eastern areas today, clouds advance and grey the sky in advance of our next storm system, which will have quite a different personality than its predecessor. Low pressure which sat in the southern Plains early this morning will race northeastward through the Great Lakes and down the St. Lawrence Valley in the next 24 hours. This system’s impact here will be significant, occurring mostly between dusk today and dawn tomorrow, so let’s break down the aspects of it…

Snow: The only minor part really, and it can start as snow this evening anywhere from the Boston area north and west, with 1 to 3 inches in the higher elevations of central MA to southwestern NH and no appreciable accumulation elsewhere. This will be short-lived, with rain quickly taking its place.

Rain: Heaviest rain comes in the 6 hours between midnight and dawn, and there may be embedded thunder. General rain amounts of 1 to 3 inches.

Flooding: The potential for this is actually highest over interior areas where the rain potential is highest (2-3 inches) and the snow pack is deepest, with lots of melting of that to combine with the heavy rainfall. Poor drainage flooding will be nearly immediate, small stream flooding follows quickly after, and river flooding follows soon after and may last up to several days. Coastal flooding will be much less of an issue with just some high tide splash over in prone areas.

Wind: The greatest potential for damaging wind gusts resides along the coast, both the South Coast and the East Coast, and the wind potential drops off quite a bit inland. Ironically, the same snow pack that can enhance flooding over inland locations can act to limit the strong wind due to an inversion that forms because of the “refrigeration” near the surface, creating a barrier in which the strong wind just above struggles to mix down to the surface through the colder layer there. So wind gusts should be much less the further inland you go.

Power outages: Highest potential will be where winds are strongest – east of I-95, but cannot rule out isolated outages in locations to the west as well.

Post storm… During the day on Wednesday, we’ll be in a southwest to west wind flow, a little less strong than during the storm, but still notably gusty. Much of the ground should dry out during the afternoon but any remaining water can freeze Wednesday night / early Thursday as the temperature drops, so keep note of that if you need to be out walking or driving and can come across any of these slippery surfaces. As for Thursday’s weather, a disturbance and cold front passing by during the afternoon or evening can trigger a rain or snow shower. Friday starts with sun which is followed by clouds as the next storm system approaches. This one brings a round of precipitation Friday night into Saturday. The majority of this storm looks like more of a rain event for the bulk of the region, but as I believe guidance may not be completely correct in resolving this storm’s track just yet, we have to keep in mind there is the chance that the system is further south, we are colder, and there is at least some frozen precipitation involved for some areas for part of the event, so the forecast wording will reflect this by being intentionally vague. Fine-tuning will follow in future posts.

TODAY: Clouds thicken. Highs 36-43. Wind calm becoming SE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving evening except a period of snow possible Boston area and probable northwest of Boston where 1-3 inches can fall in higher elevations of central MA to southwestern NH. Moderate to heavy rain and a chance of thunder overnight. Lows 32-39 evening, then rising temperature overnight. Wind SE increasing to 25-35 MPH, gusts 45-55 MPH inland and 55-65 MPH coast, with peak gusts 65-70 MPH possible in a few coastal locations.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day rain or snow shower possible. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with an early snow shower possible, then clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain/mix/snow likely. Lows 30-37. Highs 37-44. Wind variable 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 14-18)

Watching storm threats January 15-16 and January 17-18 but guidance may be “confused” as to which disturbance to key on, so will work this out soon. Temperatures variable but near to slightly above normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 19-22)

Colder trend with a potential messy storm before the period is over.

Post-storm look back. 3.1 inches at Logan, big build-up in snowfall to the north to as high as 18+ in parts of northern MA and southern NH. Lighter snow fell to the south, but they did get a burst at the end as the cold air arrived, and anything that was liquid late yesterday is frozen by now. Power outages from this one were not absent, but not nearly as widespread as an event not too long ago.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 8-12)

A pleasant day today for storm cleanup and recovery, but it’s short lived. Another major storm system is heading this way, and will have a much different impact on our region than its predecessor. Low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes Tuesday night and early Wednesday, and this one will be rather powerful. For our area, it will be sending a ribbon of precipitation that will take place between about dusk Tuesday to dawn Wednesday. It can start as a burst of snow for areas from about Metro Boston north and west, with even a brief accumulation, and rain elsewhere, but for all areas the bulk of this one will be rain, and heavy rain at that. In combination with melting snow, flooding issues are quite likely. Also, a strong southeast to south wind during the heaviest of the rain can lead to areas of wind damage and resultant power outages, so be prepared for that. During the day on Wednesday, we’ll be in a southwest to west wind flow, still strong and gusty but not as powerful, but with dry weather and mild air. At least this particular system won’t have any freeze-up issues to present as it departs. It won’t be until late at night / early Thursday morning that we see temperatures back around the freezing point, and by then most of the wet surfaces should have dried out with the aid of wind and drier air. Exceptions, snow banks that did not melt completely can have water draining from them that will freeze in the early hours of Thursday, so be aware of this if you should have to walk or drive or park near one. Thursday’s weather will be breezy and a rain or snow shower may come through the region late in the day in response to a passing disturbance and cold front.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 36-43. Wind calm becoming SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving except a period of snow with brief accumulation possible from Boston north and west at the start. Heavy rain overnight. Lows 32-39 evening, then rising temperature overnight. Wind SE increasing to 25-35 MPH, gusts 45-55 MPH inland and 55-65 MPH coast, with spot gusts 70-75 MPH possible in a few coastal locations.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 50-57. Wind SW 15-35 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day rain or snow shower possible. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with an early snow shower possible, then clearing. Lows 25-32. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 13-17)

Storm threat early in the holiday weekend. While the majority of guidance sends this low to our west and north, a track closer to or even south of us may occur, leaving many options on the table for precipitation type and overall impact this far in advance. Fine-tuning to come during the week. Generally fair weather for the balance of the holiday weekend. Active pattern may send the next storm system our way by the end of the period also. Temperature trend for the period is variable with active weather, but no major departures from normal expected – if anything slightly milder than average for the entire period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 18-21)

Storm signal early period. Drier weather after. Temperatures variable, but averaging near to a little above normal overall.

Mid-storm, and things are mostly on track based on expectation. Elongated low pressure passing just off our South Coast today starts to intensify as it moves east northeast and starts to pull away. Areas that have seen several to quite a few inches of snow will see another few to several inches today from “part 2”, and areas that have had little or no snowfall are in for a flash freeze and a couple to a few inches of snow as the cold air comes back into those areas, as explained in yesterday’s post. Everything winds down this evening as low pressure pulls away. And just to review, adding what is still to come in snowfall, it should bring the area generally into the ranges posted yesterday. Those are…

Outer Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard: 1/2 to 2 inches mostly midday and afternoon Sunday.

Rhode Island and Massachusetts South Coast to coastal Plymouth County MA as well as the tip of Cape Ann MA: 2 to 4 inches.

Coastal NH through Eastern Essex County MA through Boston to Providence including I-95, to Southeastern CT: 4-8 inches.

Interior southern NH through central MA to northeastern CT: 8-12 inches.

Keep in mind that even in these ranges there can always be pockets of lighter or heavier amounts due to local effects and mesoscale to microscale synoptic anomalies.

And how about the weather after this, including the next storm threat? Generally the same idea as yesterday, but let’s expand on that a little more. Monday’s a bright, tranquil winter day as high pressure moves in. Monday night is a cold one with high pressure overhead and great radiational cooling over snowcover with a clear sky above and light wind. The next storm is coming for late Tuesday into Wednesday in the form of potent low pressure to pass just west of our region. Even though we have a nice temperature rebound Tuesday off the very cold early morning lows, there will still be enough cold air around for the storm to start as snow/mix over some inland and especially higher elevation locations, before rain takes over. I’m going to lean a bit more away from freezing rain but still cannot rule it out in a few pockets well inland northwest of Boston. Will keep an eye on that as we get closer to the event. The main threats with the next storm will be flooding from heavy rainfall and damaging wind with additional power outages possibilities. Coastal issues should be minimal with astronomical lower tides this time. Wednesday will be a very mild day as the storm peaks early then pulls away. Dry, cooler weather comes behind it all on Thursday.

TODAY: Overcast with snow likely except rain across much of the South Coast to MA South Shore which will change to snow by midday/afternoon. Flash freeze occurs this afternoon in areas seeing rain to start the day. Highs occurring early to mid-morning ranging widely from 28-35 northwest of Boston to 35-42 Boston south and southeast, followed by a temperature fall into the 20s from northwest to southeast midday on. Wind E 10-20 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH in coastal areas especially Cape Cod through midday, then shifting to N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH coastal areas during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with lingering light snow showers in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH but higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind calm becoming SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving except a period of snow than freezing rain possible some interior locations. Lows 30-37 evening, then rising temperature overnight. Wind SE 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast, with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast with rain morning. Breaking clouds with additional rain showers afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SE 15-35 MPH with potential stronger gusts, shifting to SW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-37. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day rain or snow shower possible. Highs 40-47. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 12-16)

An active weather pattern continues. Next storm threat comes early in the holiday weekend (focused on January 13). More detail for this next update.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 17-21)

Next storm signal is in the January 18-19 window. Temperatures variable, but near to above normal for the period.

The first thing to note this morning is short-term. Many of you saw the day dawn overcast. It is hard to tell at first look but the clouds that blanket a good portion of the region are stratus from a lower level inversion between 3,500 and 4,000 ft. These clouds crept in overnight mostly from the west and northwest and are now drifting more to the south and southwest due to a shift in the near surface wind. I did not have this cloud deck forecast accurately in yesterday’s update so it is here in somewhat of a surprise fashion, at least in terms of my expectations. While this is going on, the expected high cloud shield is overspreading the sky from the west southwest in advance of our coming storm, which I will dive into talking about in a moment. The lower clouds are showing a bit of a clearing trend from the northeast so there can be the reappearance of some filtered sunshine especially from the NH Seacoast through parts of eastern MA during this morning into the midday hours before we start to see the cloud shield from the storm system lower and thicken as the day goes on.

We are going to be impacted by two significant storm systems during the next 5 days, and while the second one may be rather significant in its own way, we obviously need to deal with the more imminent one first. Synoptically, there isn’t a lot of change really at all between yesterday’s discussion and today’s. We are still looking at low pressure emerging off the northern Middle Atlantic Coast and moving east southeastward with any elongated center passing just to the south of New England. This takes place while a cold high pressure area is centered to our north and northeast. This system has two main parts to it. To summarize what you read yesterday, we have the first part which consists of a good punch of precipitation coming in this evening, mostly late evening. There may be a finger of moisture a head of the main shield that brings some snow to southern New Hampshire before most of the rest of the region sees anything. But by late evening we should have a precipitation shield overspreading the entire area falling in the form of snow for most. The exception is going to be coastal areas and especially southeastern MA, where enough warming takes place from an easterly wind off the ocean to result in a snow-rain mix or just rain for several hours. If the precipitation intensity is great enough somewhat colder air above can overcome the surface warmth and some of the coastal areas, including Boston, can go back and forth between rain and snow. That is something we’ll have to observe as it happens. This first part of the storm is going to produce the bulk of the snowfall accumulation for interior locations, northeastern Connecticut and northwestern Rhode Island up through central and interior northeastern MA and across much of interior southern NH. There will be a general lull in the precipitation as we reach the pre-dawn hours into about mid-morning on Sunday. Snow will still be falling but more lightly over interior areas while the coastal areas that were seeing rainfall will probably continue to see some light mix, rain, and drizzle. When we get to midday and afternoon on Sunday, things change fairly quickly and in some areas significantly. This is when the back side of the elongated low pressure area, which will be intensifying at that point, drags in cold air and also starts to develop an enhanced area of precipitation – mainly snow, and flipping any areas still rain over to snow all the way out through Cape Cod before it ends in the early evening. This second part of the storm will deliver the bulk of the snowfall accumulation from Boston southeastward. Regardless of how much snow accumulates from this part of the storm, perhaps more importantly will be the flash freeze that occurs as temperatures fall quickly into and through the 20s in places that were near to above freezing for many hours. This will cause any wet snow, slush, and water to freeze up rapidly. Untreated surfaces will become very slippery and this will last through the morning hours of Monday while the temperature remains below freezing. A partial melt will take place during the day on Monday as the temperature goes above freezing in most areas that saw the flash freeze. But the sun angle is still fairly low at this point in January and it is going to be quite cold Monday night so anything that melted, if still not removed or still an untreated surface, will freeze again. Please keep this in mind if you have to walk or drive outside at any point through early Tuesday. One thing I did not touch upon yet and before I forget to, wind and coastal flooding are not going to be a significant part of the storm for most of the region. There is a slight exception in that the winds can gust over 30 MPH and perhaps as high as 50 MPH for a portion of the storm, especially Sunday midday and afternoon, along the immediate Coast of Southeastern MA and across Cape Cod. This, combined with somewhat wetter snow there for a while, may lead to isolated power outages. I’m not expecting this to be a widespread issue, however. As for Monday’s weather, it will be a very nice winter day and the chance to catch our breath between the first storm and another one that will be racing in our direction. This is likely to be a very potent low pressure area that will pass just west of New England Tuesday night and early Wednesday. The main concerns with this system are several. At the outset, we are going to have some stubborn cold air in place, and the guidance doesn’t tend to see this very well yet and will probably over forecast the warmth initially that will be impacted by a fresh snow cover from the first system. So the concern is for a punch of snow Tuesday evening from the early part of that storm, most likely away from the coast based on what will most likely be a southeast wind warming the coastline more quickly. But basically anywhere north and west of Boston is vulnerable to a period of snow, and some higher elevations can see a significant accumulation of it before the air above warms enough to shut the snow down and change it to rain. And even when that happens there may be some interior locations that are still cold enough at the surface that freezing rain can be an issue. That is something we will start to look into in more detail once we get beyond this first system. The other aspect of that storm is once we are beyond the early storm precipitation issues, we are in for quite the wind and rain event lasting into Wednesday morning, in which flooding and wind damage will be concerns. Again, more detail to come as this event draws closer.

Before I get to the main forecast breakdown, for this first system here are my snowfall amounts, and these are totals for the entire system. Keep in mind that there may be some areas that have little or no snow after the “part one” is finished, that will be receiving the vast majority of the snow from “part two”.

Outer Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha’s Vineyard: 1/2 to 2 inches mostly midday and afternoon Sunday.

Rhode Island and Massachusetts South Coast to coastal Plymouth County MA as well as the tip of Cape Ann MA: 2 to 4 inches.

Coastal NH through Eastern Essex County MA through Boston to Providence including I-95, to Southeastern CT: 4-8 inches.

Interior southern NH through central MA to northeastern CT: 8-12 inches.

Keep in mind that even in these ranges there can always be pockets of lighter or heavier amounts due to local effects and mesoscale to microscale synoptic anomalies. I will try to update these during the day on Sunday when I am not outside doing snow removal. 🙂

Next is the detailed forecast…

TODAY: Limited sun for some areas through midday otherwise mostly cloudy. Highs 33-40. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast. A mid evening period of snow near the MA / NH border into southern NH, then precipitation over spreads the entire region in the form of snow except rain or snow coast and rain Cape Cod. Lows 28-35. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast with snow likely except snow or rain coastal locations especially south of Boston until midday before those areas go over to snow. Highs occurring early to mid-morning ranging widely from 28-35 northwest of Boston to 35-42 Boston south and southeast, followed by a temperature fall into the 20s from northwest to southeast midday on. Wind E 10-20 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH in coastal areas especially Cape Cod through midday, then shifting to N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH coastal areas during the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with lingering light snow showers in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH but higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind calm becoming SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Rain arriving except a period of snow than freezing rain possible some interior locations. Lows 30-37 evening, then rising temperature overnight. Wind SE 10-20 MPH inland, 20-30 MPH coast, with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast with rain morning. Breaking clouds with additional rain showers afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind SE 15-35 MPH with potential stronger gusts, shifting to SW.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 11-15)

An active weather pattern continues. Watch for a cold front to deliver colder air by late January 11 with rain and snow shower chances. Winter storm possibility around the beginning of the MLK Jr weekend, with fair weather to follow later in the weekend.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 16-20)

Fair weather to start. Next storm signal is in the January 18-19 window. Temperatures variable, but near to above normal for the period.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 5-9)

Our first significant winter storm with frozen precipitation as the main player is on the way and will have a significant impact on the first weekend of 2024. But before we get there, we have a bright but cold Friday ahead. Gusty winds that are taking wind chill readings to around 10 will ease up later today, taking the edge off the cold, but we will have plenty of sun. Tonight will be another cold one, but this time without the biting wind. Saturday’s bright early sun will become filtered then fade behind increasing high cloudiness. This is in advance of the aforementioned winter storm. Detailing this event is next, keeping in mind a few tweaks can still follow. Expecting a low pressure area to emerge off the Mid Atlantic Coast Saturday evening and then become an elongated low center as it passes just to the southeast of New England during the entirety of Sunday. There are two upper level boosts of energy for this system, the first one to give the initial batch of precipitation some enhancement as it overspreads the region Saturday night (late evening / overnight from southwest to northeast), and a second one coming along during Sunday afternoon, with a slight regionwide lull in between. In addition, an east wind to the north of the low pressure area, with high pressure in southeastern Canada, will drag low level warmth in off the ocean, making it harder for precipitation to stay as snow along the coast and especially over Cape Cod for at least the first part of the precipitation. As the low center starts to move more to the east and eventually gets to a position more southeast of the region, the wind will start to turn more northerly and drag colder air in further south and east with time. Also, with the first area, we have to watch for some heavier snow banding quite a distance from the low center as we can sometimes see. These factors make for a potentially complex pattern of snowfall accumulation. The overall idea though is that the first part of the storm may produce the majority of the accumulation we see north and west of Boston, while the latter portion of the storm would produce most of and in some cases all of the snowfall accumulation for locations south and southeast. Cape Cod, for example, can start as a mix or rain, and stay that way for many hours with no accumulating snowfall until as late as the middle of the day on Sunday, but still end up with a couple inches of snowfall at the end. Keeping all of this in mind, when reading my snowfall accumulation forecast break-down, remember that these are for the storm as a whole. Current expectations are: Up to 1 inch mainly late in storm Outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, 1-3 inches Mid Cape Cod to immediate MA/RI South Coast, and outer tip of Cape Ann MA, 3-6 inches remainder of Cape Ann MA, MA North Shore including Boston, MA South Shore to Providence RI area and southeastern CT, and 6-10 inches for the balance of the region including all of southern NH, and generally west of I-95 in the majority of eastern MA away from the coast, northwestern RI, and east central to northeastern CT, through central MA as well, with isolated bands of 10-12 inches possible favoring higher elevations of central MA and southwestern NH. Low pressure finally pulls away Sunday evening with any lingering snow ending. I’m not expecting huge wind impacts from this system, with maximum potential wind gusts of 30-50 MPH confined mostly to Cape Cod which will be closest to the deepening low center as it starts to pull away. This may lead to some minor coastal flooding and wind damage in that area. The power outage risk is not as great as a recent wind and rain storm, but exists in areas that will see a heavier and wetter snow for the first part of the storm, mainly I-95 eastward. Behind this system comes a tranquil winter day on Monday with lots of sun but cold air. Monday night will get quite cold as light winds over a snow cover combine with clear sky to produce good radiational cooling. Our El Nino pattern will keep us on our toes as the expected active pattern of January goes on, sending another storm our way with increasing clouds Tuesday and another precipitation threat by the end of the day. We’ll look at this in more detail next update.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing during the afternoon.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds thicken. Snow arrives overnight but may start as mix/rain coastal areas. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast with snow likely except snow or rain coastal locations especially south of Boston until midday before those areas go over to snow. Highs 33-40 occurring in the morning, then falling temperatures in the afternoon. Wind E 10-20 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH in coastal areas especially Cape Cod through midday, then shifting to N 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH coastal areas during the afternoon.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with lingering light snow showers in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 5-15 MPH but higher gusts.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 31-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 12-19. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain/mix/snow possible by late day or at night. Highs 33-40. Wind calm becoming E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 10-14)

Active pattern. Storm system impacts the region January 10 with most likely track just to our west with the precipitation ending up as mainly rain before drier air arrives along with plenty of wind. More detail on this system to come. Another storm threat exists by late in the period (around next weekend) which may be in a colder set-up and have a better chance of including snow.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 15-19)

Fair weather to start. Next storm signal is in the January 18-19 window. Temperatures variable, but near to above normal for the period.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 4-8)

Today, low pressure scoots out to sea to the southeast of our area, while a cold front moves through the region from northwest to southeast. Other than the slight chance of a rain or snow shower from the front, it’ll be a dry day, just starting with a lot of clouds and eventually seeing some sunshine. Colder air moves in tonight on a gusty breeze, with sharper air than we’ve felt in a while as it falls to the 20s with wind chill temps dropping below 20. Friday’s weather will feature a chill but it will be a dry day, starting with a stinging breeze but ending up more tranquil as high pressure takes over. This high will keep it cold on Saturday as we start to see increasing high clouds ahead of a storm system set to impact the region later that night and through most of Sunday. There are still some questions to be answered regarding the track of the low pressure center and the full impact on us. Confidently I can say that a good portion of the region is likely to receive measurable snowfall significant enough to pull out a shovel to move it. However, don’t read this as everybody gets nailed, because there are some factors against a widespread significant snowfall at play here as well. Among them are a low center that may deepen more slowly than shown by many models, and one that may also string itself out quite a bit to our south, not having the impact as far north as many systems like it may have. Another issue is an easterly wind off the relatively mild Atlantic water which will warm the lowest levels of the atmosphere. This presents a chance that rain will be at least mixed in over eastern locations of MA, and that even plain rain may fall for a while in many immediate coastal areas. If this is to be the case, snowfall amounts will be cut down significantly by it. The greatest chance of a moderate to locally heavier snowfall resides away from the coast of MA and southern NH, down to northern RI and northeastern CT, based on my current ideas of how the storm tracks and its precipitation shield. I’ll put a solid first call for accumulation on the next blog update (Friday morning). Behind this system, precipitation exits and we dry out for the start of the coming week on Monday.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a rain or snow showers through early afternoon, then increasing sun. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds thicken. Snow arrives overnight but may start as mix/rain coastal areas. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast with snow likely except snow or rain coastal locations. Highs 33-40. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow ending in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 20-27. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs 32-39. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 9-13)

Storm potential late January 9 into January 10 with a mix of precipitation but ending up as mainly a rain event based on current projected track. A dry interlude between that and another late-period storm chance as we remain in an active weather pattern. Temperatures may surge with the passage of the first storm system depending on its track, and turn colder behind it, but the period as a whole will see near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 14-18)

Unsettled weather potentials very early and very late in the period based on current timing of disturbances in an active weather pattern. Temperatures variable, but near to above normal for the period.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 3-7)

A disturbance will send some clouds through the region this morning, but it will clear out behind it this afternoon with more sunshine. Heavy frost is noted again, like yesterday, in many areas early today so allow a few extra minutes to scrape or defrost your car window if you have to drive early! Clouds return later today into Thursday as one low pressure system passes offshore and a cold front swings through the region from the northwest. The latter may produce a brief rain or snow shower Thursday through midday but otherwise it remains dry for most areas. High pressure brings dry, chilly weather late in the week. Over the weekend we eye low pressure approaching our region, and there is still quite a bit of detail to figure out. With this system at day 5 and still some disagreement and inconsistency in the guidance we use to try to help forecast it, I’m not really going to make any changes in my thoughts on it from yesterday, as the overall set-up looks the same to me. We should see our first widespread snowfall of the season, with some accumulation to talk about, but it may not start as snow or stay as snow for everybody. Synoptically speaking, I do expect somewhat elongated low pressure to be a little too far south to really nail the region, but close enough to produce a good shield of precipitation. Details will come into focus with time, but for now just prepare for the possibility of a messy / wintry end to the weekend.

TODAY: Limited morning sun with lots of high level clouds moving through. Brighter afternoon sun. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 22-29. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of a rain or snow showers through early afternoon, then increasing sun. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds thicken. Snow arrives overnight but may start as mix/rain some coastal areas. Lows 28-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Overcast with snow likely except snow or rain coastal locations. Highs 33-40. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 8-12)

Dry January 8. Next window of opportunity for storminess is later January 9 into January 10. Early feeling on this is low pressure tracking west of New England but some variety of precipitation with cold air around to start before it becomes a mainly rain event. Obviously too far for any further detail and will monitor. Dry weather follows, but next storm may approach by the end of the period in an active pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 13-17)

Storm threat window January 13-14. Dry weather follows. Temperatures variable, mostly near to a little above normal.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 2-6)

Now that we’re into the second month of meteorological winter, it’s time to look ahead to see if the pattern transition prognosticated in the winter outlook back in November has any signs of getting underway. It won’t take long to determine that the answer is yes. After a mild and essentially snowless December (or top 5 least-snowy on record for much of the region), we’re going to see an active pattern start to bring some snow chances, the start of the first of these being on the ending time border of this 5-day outlook. But before we get to that, it’s time to look at the more immediate future. First, we have high pressure to provide a bright, dry, seasonably chilly day today. A weak disturbance will swing across northern New England and a little extension of a low pressure trough will send a batch of clouds through the region during the first half of the day on Wednesday. I previously had a snow shower threat in the forecast from this feature, but feel the need to remove it as it seems like the air will simply be too dry. Thursday, a progressive upper trough swings through the East Coast region. This system actually has 2 parts, a southern jet stream trough that will ignite low pressure offshore, well to our southeast, that will move quickly out to sea. That feature may bring a touch of light rain to the South Coast, if anything. A northern jet stream disturbance will push a cold front through our region and this may bring a rain or snow shower to a few locations, but nothing significant. Another area of high pressure builds in on Friday with fair, seasonably chilly weather. This high keeps it dry and chilly on Saturday, but this day will feature sun starting to fade behind increasing clouds in advance of a more potent El Nino driven southern jet stream storm system. We may see snow arriving from this system as early as Saturday evening…

TODAY: Unlimited sun. Highs 34-41. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Some clouds overnight. Lows 18-25. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Some clouds morning, especially north of I-90, otherwise more sun. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 22-29. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers through early afternoon, then partial sun. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 17-24. Wind N under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Chance of snow at night. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 7-11)

Winter storm threat to start the period on January 7. At forecast day 6 there is still a lot of uncertainty to clarify in terms of the exact track of low pressure, precipitation intensity and orientation, as well as type, though snow is favored over rain at this point for much of the region. Current leaning is a driving upper trough that is not too amplified and a fairly progressive low center passing south of New England with a cold high to the north, and a widespread snowfall with higher odds of heavier snowfall to the south and lighter to the north. Please note this isn’t even close to a final call and there are several days left to fine tune the system’s impacts. Post-storm return to dry weather January 8, but next system brings precipitation chances right back to the region later January 9 into January 10 before dry weather returns behind that system at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 12-16)

Active pattern into mid month with another window of opportunity for storminess focused on January 12-14. No major temperature anomalies indicated.

DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 1-5)

Happy 2024! We’ll start the year with a seasonably chilly day, lots of clouds, and a chance of a passing snow flurry as a disturbance goes through the area and low pressure develops offshore, that will then move away. High pressure brings dry and seasonably chilly weather Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday, a quick-moving low pressure area moving out to our southeast, moving out to sea, and a cold front swinging through from the northwest combine to bring a few insignificant rain and snow showers to the region. High pressure returns with fair and chilly weather Friday.

TODAY: Clouds break for sun at times. A passing light snow flurry possible. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 23-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 37-44. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind N under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Highs 36-43. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 33-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 6-10)

Potential storms to impact the region January 7 and 10. Early leaning on the first one is a colder storm, but weaker than modeled and energy stretched with a light to moderate snow/mix event, and very early idea on the other is a Great Lakes system with our region on the milder side of that system.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 11-15)

Watching the January 13-14 window for a potential winter storm impact.

DAYS 1-5 (DECEMBER 31 – JANUARY 4)

So now we have made it to the final day of 2023 and this is the final update of the year. Not a lot of change to write about in today’s blog post. I haven’t felt much uncertainty in my forecasting of this pattern and that higher confidence continues as we end a mild and rather snowless month of December and head into the first month of the new year. For this final day of 2023 we will have a dry and seasonably chilly day. A disturbance is going to pass by mostly to our southwest on the first day of 2024 but enough moisture is around that a brief rain or snow shower can occur here. Following that we have a couple of seasonably chilly and generally dry days for Tuesday and Wednesday. There will be a weak cold front pushing through the region later Wednesday that can produce a snow flurry, but that will probably be the exception rather than the rule. Low pressure scoots by the region on Thursday, its evolving center passing to our southeast and the bulk of its moisture staying offshore so just a little light snowfall or mixed precipitation / rain closer to the South Coast is what I am expecting.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 36-43. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow flurry or sprinkle of rain possible. Highs 35-42. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 35-42. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 22-29. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A passing snow flurry possible. Highs 36-41. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 21-28. Wind N under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with a period of snow except mix/rain possible South Coast. Highs 33-40. Wind NE-N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 5-9)

Watch for a southern jet stream storm system near or south of the region mid period. Temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 10-14)

Weather pattern transition brings one disturbance through the region early in the period that delivers some cold air after some precipitation, followed by our first winter storm threat toward the end of the period.