DAYS 1-5 (JULY 5-9)

I hope you all survived the holiday and its showers and storms (some areas) firework-obscuring low clouds and fog (some other areas and some of the same areas), etc. You get the idea. Sometimes Mother Nature is kind, and sometimes she is not so, but she’s just doing her thing, and she’s been doing that to the dismay of many lately (not I though, because I just take it in stride and adjust as I go). But even I would not mind a couple days that are more classic summertime feeling with lots of sun and maybe less of a rain threat than we’ve seen on many recent days. Well, that’s what we get today, and tomorrow, with weak high pressure in control, but strong enough to keep the shower and thunderstorm threat to an isolated minimum, with maybe a quick couple of the pop-up variety mainly over interior northern MA and southern NH both days, but with the extreme majority of the region seeing nothing at all. And for the first time in a while it’ll be on the hotter side, not sizzling heat of course, barely getting to 90 for the highest temps with 80s for most. The coast can see a cooling sea breeze on both afternoons, keeping the high temps closer to 80 there, even some 70s over Cape Cod and the Islands where wind from just about any direction is a “sea breeze” of one kind or another. This warmer weather does come with a continuation of fairly high humidity though, and we haven’t had too many days that combine 80s and higher humidity, so it may feel quite hot to some, despite it being fairly modest by New England. When we get to Friday and Saturday, the high pressure area will shift to the east and a low pressure trough will be setting up in the Midwest and Ohio Valley. This produces a southerly air flow over our region. This is a warm pattern, but I do think any shower and thunderstorm activity will be quite limited, or even non-existent for most of the region. A small low pressure area offshore may keep it a bit cooler with a slightly better shower threat around Cape Cod on Friday, but this remains to be seen and may be a feature over-forecast by guidance, so will keep an eye on that. A frontal system associated with the trough to the west will get closer, probably close enough to send showers and storms into western New England Friday, but they may only skirt the western reaches of the WHW forecast area later in the day or evening before they are largely dissipated. And this system is not going to really make any progress on Saturday, which other than the slight chance for a few pop up showers and storms mainly over interior sections, may be a completely rain-free day for much of the region, along with continued very warm and humid weather. Sunday’s a bit of a split in prognosticating tools, with some showing some form of Saturday rerun, but showers/storms getting closer from the west, and some showing a wetter scenario evolving. I’m leaning closer to the second scenario, and will have showers in the forecast. I don’t think the set-up screams big thunderstorms this far in advance, but it may very well be one that can produce some heavy rainfall, nonetheless. This will be another forecast detail I’ll monitor and fine-tune. If the slower scenario ends up correct, Sunday ends up largely rain-free and the weekend ends up quite nice if you don’t mind the high humidity we’ll have.

TODAY: Lingering low clouds/fog South Coast burning off by late morning. Otherwise sunshine then a sun/cloud mix with only a slight chance of a few isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon, favoring interior northern portions of the WHW area (southwestern NH, north central MA). Highs 83-90, except 76-83 immediate shore, coolest Cape Cod and Islands. Dew points 64-71. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except areas of low clouds and fog redeveloping, mainly in interior low elevations and along the South Coast. Lows 63-70. Dew points 63-70. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Any low clouds/fog dissipating early followed by a sun/cloud mix and a slight chance of isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, which would favor interior areas from south central NH to central MA. Highs 84-91, 76-83 coastal areas again coolest Cape Cod and the Islands. Dew points 64-71. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point 65+. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, favoring northeastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH. Highs 84-91 except 76-83 South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 67-74. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 78-85, coolest South Coast. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 10-14)

Upper level low pressure and a frontal boundary in the vicinity will bring an unsettled pattern with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures near normal in general with no sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 15-19)

Weak zonal flow pattern, still a tendency for a weak trough. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable with no sustained heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 4-8)

Independence Day weather will not be independent of unsettled conditions. But there is good news too! A quasi-stationary trough bisects the WHW as it runs southwest to northeast across the region. There is air convergence along this trough line and with the additional help from an upper trough passing overhead, showers and a few thunderstorms have been generated and moving across the region since late last evening (after a break yesterday). This is basically going to continue to be the story with waves of showers occurring – moving southwest to northeast across the region – this morning and midday. With the help of solar heating, one more round of showers and storms will be generated during the first half of the afternoon. The greatest threat for the heaviest rainfall with these will be in the vicinity of I-90 and southward, where torrential downpours can lead to flash flooding. The threat for severe thunderstorms is minimal as many of the parameters for that will be lacking, but keep in mind that any thunderstorm is capable of producing dangerous lightning, even if it is not frequent, and this threat should never be ignored, especially with so many outdoor plans for today. As we are dealing with that round of showers and storms, the upper trough axis will be just getting ready to exit the region from west to east, and the surface boundary will respond by starting to move eastward, ending the shower and storm threat from west to east during the second half of the afternoon. Any isolated showers and storms that may pop up behind this, further north, and west, will fade and dissipate by evening as the atmosphere becomes more stable. This sets the region up for much more favorable conditions for tonight’s fireworks displays. The only “issue” may be some areas of fog that form due to the lingering moisture near ground level. I don’t expect this to be extensive. Weak high pressure builds in for midweek with generally fair and warm to hot weather, still with fairly high humidity, for Wednesday and Thursday. Both days can feature slightly cooler sea breeze in coastal locations, and the pop up shower / t-storm threat is minimal, but I can’t rule it out 100%. Friday and Saturday, high pressure shifts slightly to the east and a more southerly air flow will be in place. This will continue the high humidity, but a southerly air flow tends to have more modified temperatures coming off the ocean water to the south, keeping significant heat from occurring. On these days, the South Coast would be “coolest” with a direct ocean wind. When we get to the end of the week – Friday and Saturday – we’ll be watching the approach of a frontal boundary from the west, but there are some indications that this boundary may not be close enough to trigger much of any shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday, and may do so only for western portions of the region Saturday. This part of the forecast is lower confidence and something to be monitored as the week goes on…

TODAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly cloudy with episodic showers and possible thunderstorms until mid afternoon, with heaviest rainfall potential along of and south of I-90 during the first 4 hours of the afternoon. Variably cloudy with any showers/storms exiting to the east and any lingering isolated activity dissipating late afternoon / early evening. Highs 75-82. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind variable, mostly E, up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point in 60+. Wind variable to NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+ Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of isolated showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 81-88. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, favoring southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Highs 80-87. Dew point 65+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 9-13)

Upper level low pressure and a frontal boundary in the vicinity will bring an unsettled pattern with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures near normal in general with no sustained major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 14-18)

Weak zonal flow pattern, still a tendency for a weak trough. A couple shower and thunderstorm chances and seasonable with no sustained heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 3-7)

The bad news: The shower and thunderstorm chance exists into the holiday. The good news: There will be long rain-free breaks, and regional drier conditions seem to coincide with fireworks displays tonight and Tuesday night. We still have to get a trough to slide across our region and begin to exit seaward, but this doesn’t happen fully until the end of the day Tuesday. We’ve had another significant wave of showers/rain during the overnight. We’re left with foggy areas and a general overcast across the region early this morning, but we’ll see more of an opportunity for clouds to break for intervals of sun, and we can’t rule out a few more showers and storms firing up during the day today, though coverage will be less than yesterday. Where they do occur though, heavy rain would be likely, and there is a low chance that a severe storm could occur with hail and/or damaging wind gusts. Any thunderstorms contain a lightning threat, so be aware of anything in the area if you have outdoor plans – not only today but tomorrow too. It looks fairly quiet this evening before another cluster of showers/storms comes through parts of the region during the overnight. This sets us up for one more round of scattered showers and storms on Tuesday somewhere midday to mid afternoon, with the greatest chance being near and south of I-90. It finally looks like this activity is outta here by evening and we can enjoy a weather-worry-free Independence Day evening, the only exception being some patchy fog in prone areas that if occurring early enough could make viewing fireworks “interesting”. High pressure builds in midweek with warmer, drier weather, and the next frontal boundary approaches by later Friday when a few showers and storms may be in the region. And an update on the wildfire smoke. Near-surface smoke may hang near the South Coast for a while today, otherwise it’s largely exited the region, and will stay away through the holiday into midweek. Some higher altitude smoke may drift in at times mid to late week, but not overly thick.

TODAY: Overcast start with areas of fog and possibly a lingering shower. Clouds break for sun at times but chance of a shower or thunderstorm midday and afternoon. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable, mainly S to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm – best chance overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible until mid afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point near 70, falling slightly later in the day. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming W around 10 MPH late in the day.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point falling to lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, may cool back to the 70s coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-69. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. A late-day thunderstorm possible. Highs 82-89. Dew point surpassing 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 8-12)

Frontal boundary in the region on the weekend of July 8-9 brings a shower and thunderstorm chance. This unsettled pattern may continue into the following week as well. No major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 13-17)

General weak troughing dominating with humid conditions and a chance of showers/storms at times in this pattern. No major heat foreseen.

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 2-6)

Saturday was quite a nice day to start off the month of July if you ignore the low level wildfire smoke that reduced visibility and worsened air quality. Some of that hangs around today before being scoured out on Monday. Unsettled weather will be the theme of the next couple days as a low pressure trough swings through the region with a series of disturbances. Timing of these will be crucial for planned outdoor activities such as beach plans, cookouts, and fireworks displays. Today will be the day with the least favorable rainfall timing and most extensive cloud cover. The largest and longest-lasting shower episodes will take place this morning to mid afternoon from west to east across the region. It won’t rain in every WHW forecast area location the entire time, with the initial thrust to the north and west of Boston, and eventually further to the east and south, but even between this area and another that arrives later tonight there can be a few spotty showers and thunderstorms. The area that arrives late tonight will move out by dawn Monday. From midday on, and especially afternoon on Monday, we’ll have to watch for scattered showers and thunderstorms with the storm possibly strong to severe, especially west of the I-95 corridor. I suspect this activity takes a break in the evening before another disturbances later at night brings additional shower/storm chances. Current timing suggests that a shower and thunderstorm threat will exist Tuesday (Independence Day) morning before a break, and only isolated to widely scattered showers and storms for the afternoon hours, but any that do occur can contain very heavy downpours. If there’s any better news it’s that the coverage of these will be limited and that they should fade for evening fireworks displays in most if not all of the region. Midweek (Wednesday and Thursday) will be warm and summery with a weak area of high pressure moving in, but Thursday may feature some cooling coastal sea breezes.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodic showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog early. Haze/smoke. Highs 73-80. Dew point rising to near 70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Haze/smoke. Lows 64-71. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Mostly cloudy with a good chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90, may cool back to the 70s coast. Wind W to variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 7-11)

Unsure of timing of next frontal boundary and disturbance, later July 7 or July 8, for a shower/thunderstorm chance, but the overall pattern during this period looks more settled and seasonable with weak westerly or zonal flow dominating.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 12-16)

Weak flow pattern including the return of weak troughing may incite more unsettled weather for mid month with a lack of heat but high humidity. Fine-tuning to come of course.

COMMENTARY

If you know me well now you hear me chopping down weather apps, and rightfully so as it turns out. I have already run into several people I know that have changed plans or asked me if they should change plans based on what “my weather app says…” … No, no, no. This is not good. It’s not going to rain for the next 3 days, 5 days, 7 days, 2 years. Please. Let’s find a way to learn how to use these things with discretion, or just stop looking at them until the information can be refined and defined. It’s as good as random right now, and so obviously focused on the “biggest” potential as to make it look like that’s the only weather that is to be expected. Count the hours of rain vs. the hours of no rain even during the recent unsettled stretch (say, the last week). You’ll find dry hours will win out, and in many areas, significantly. An hour’s worth of downpours can be a big pain in the butt if it’s right in the middle of your cookout or beach day, and there’s not a whole lot we can do about it other than prepare for the chance, and have a place to wait it out, and a recovery plan if necessary. But that’s nature. It’s always been that way. “Way back when” we didn’t even have a live radar on our phone, or a phone at all if you go back far enough, to tell us there was a shower or thunderstorm entering the neighborhood. And now we do, and it seems like the technology making that possible is also struggling to deliver the correct message to the “weather consumer”. But there’s really no way to fix this other than to spread the word, as I often do. Ditch the apps, or use them wisely, and listen to the professionals – please! No, we’re not always going to be right either. But we’re more valuable. You can bet on that. 🙂

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 1-5)

Hello July! This month starts off with kinda-sorta-but-not-really the same pattern we’ve had in June. The pattern is “unsettled” but if you read my commentary above then you know I’m going to point out we’ll have plenty of “rain-free time”, and we will. In fact, I think cancelled bbq’s and fireworks and pool parties and beach days will be the exception rather than the rule from today right through the holiday and even the day after (aka “day 5”). This is how I think it’s going to break down, first on the broad scale, then a little more pinpointed as you read on in this discussion, followed by the detailed forecast. First, the marine layer made great strides into our region from the east overnight and much of the region started the day blanketed by stratus clouds with areas of fog, and even a few patches of light drizzle. Parts of the South Coast and some western portions of the WHW forecast area were excepted from this, starting the day with sun. Elsewhere, the rising sun will burn this layer off as the morning goes on. You’ll notice where sun is already shining and where it emerges that the hazy look is back, and this is due to the eastern side of a wildfire smoke plume that has been to our west for the last couple days and finally pulled eastward by a bit more westerly wind in the atmosphere. It will be around for the weekend, and enough so that at least for today the air quality will be compromised, so keep this in mind if you have outdoor activities planned. As we head through Sunday and Monday, the smoke plume should thin out and slowly recede to the north. The weak high pressure ridge causing out west wind to blow the smoke into the region at this time will shift to more of a southerly flow as a low pressure trough crosses the region Sunday through Tuesday. This will help slowly disperse the smoke, but it will bring back the chance of showers and thunderstorms that you may have to dodge during your weekend / holiday plans. But again, this is not going to “ruin” this summer period of time. You just have to have a plan and be ready to use it. Right now, I think disturbances coming through the region in association with this trough will bring several waves of showers to us on Sunday through early Tuesday. While guessing the timing on these waves is a gamble, current leaning is #1 early to mid morning Sunday, #2 early to mid afternoon Sunday, #3 late Sunday night to early hours Monday, #4 midday Monday, #5 late night Monday to early hours Tuesday. During the day on Tuesday, Independence Day, I’m leaning toward an isolated shower or thunderstorm in a few areas but less of a chance overall for the region as the trough axis begins to shift eastward, beyond the region. By Wednesday, that feature is gone, and weak high pressure brings fair weather and July warmth.

TODAY: Low clouds/fog many areas early, then increasing sun but mixed with clouds and haze/smoke. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60s. Wind E-SE early shifting to SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Haze/smoke. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodic showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog early. Haze/smoke. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising to near 70. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing showers and possible thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Haze/smoke. Lows 64-71. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind S under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Partly sunny. A possible shower or thunderstorm. Highs 77-84. Dew point falling slightly to lower 60s. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 6-10)

Unsure of timing of next frontal boundary and disturbance, later July 7 or July 8, for a shower/thunderstorm chance, but the overall pattern during this period looks more settled and seasonable with weak westerly or zonal flow dominating.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 11-15)

This period will bring us to mid July and the mid point of meteorological summer with a likely continuation of a weak zonal flow pattern, fairly seasonable temperatures overall, a lack of sustained significant heat, and a couple shower and thunderstorm chances which can’t obviously be detailed so far in advance.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

A weak ridge of high pressure brings mostly fair weather to our region on the final day of June and the first day of July today and tomorrow. The final lingering effect of a trough moving offshore can still help set off an isolated shower or thunderstorm over a few inland locations during this afternoon, but odds are highly against any one location seeing any such activity, so go about any outdoor plans with just an eye kept out for any quick interruption. Tonight, a stratus blanket forms over outer Cape Cod and the Islands with enough low level moisture, and a little disturbance may kick off an isolated shower in the early hours of Saturday around that area too, otherwise the WHW forecast are will enjoy a nice Saturday with lots of sun (just early clouds Cape Cod Islands) and some clouds moving in later on. The Sunday-Tuesday period of the extended holiday weekend will become more humid and somewhat more unsettled, but none of these will be “rainy days” so to speak. They will all carry shower and thunderstorm chances, but in terms of getting your planned activities in, most of them will be a go – with luck/timing playing a roll into the details of whether or not showers and/or storms interrupt things. Not an ideal set-up, but not the worst, as a series of disturbances and a broader trough cross the region west to east. The timing may be quick enough that the trough is actually east of our area at some point Tuesday (Independence Day) with a drying trend in humidity and a lowering shower threat. These details will be fine-tuned as much as possible in coming updates…

TODAY: Early-morning fog patches in valleys, swamps, and bogs dissipates. Sun and patchy clouds. A few building clouds may release an isolated shower or thunderstorm over inland locations during the afternoon hours. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Patchy fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes developing.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds return west to east. Chance of showers overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point returns to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms until midday. Partly sunny with only isolated showers / thunderstorms thereafter. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Patchy fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY (INDEPENDENCE DAY): Partly sunny. A possible shower or thunderstorm. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+, may drop later. Wind shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 5-9)

Transition to drier, warmer weather as high pressure dominates the region early in the period, then around mid period may need to watch for a frontal boundary to bring a shower and thunderstorm chance not yet timed correctly by medium range guidance, and fair weather to follow that.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 10-14)

Weak zonal flow pattern. Limited but a couple of shower and thunderstorm chances with passing disturbances and a lack of sustained significant heat, though more seasonable overall.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

While the overall pattern doesn’t change very much, there will be changes in the day-to-day weather as we move through the next several days. Upper level low pressure drifts eastward over the region today and still supports diurnal shower and thunderstorm activity, but in more isolated form in contrast to yesterday’s more organized activity. And as previously stated, this low gets to our east finally by Friday with just a chance of a few more isolated showers/storms during the day. We finally get a day without a shower / storm threat at all on Saturday as a weak high pressure area controls the weather. As we head to Sunday and Monday, the picture is a little more fuzzy. It looks like one initial disturbance may bring a shower threat to our region in the early hours of Sunday, and then the impact of the next upper level trough remains in question as we head through Monday. While it tries to push into the region, there will be some resistance from a high pressure ridge to our northeast, and it may be enough to minimize the impact of the trough. So for now I will smooth over the forecast wording for the end of this 5-day period and fine-tune it as we get closer.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Any heavier showers/storms may contain small hail. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, possibly gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Patchy fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable to W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s to 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds return west to east. Chance of showers overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point returns to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms until midday. Partly sunny with only isolated showers / thunderstorms thereafter. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of a shower. Highs 75-82. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 4-8)

Upper level low pressure nearby but far enough southwest of the region to minimize shower and storm chances early in the period, then a more westerly (zonal) flow with a few opportunities for passing showers/storms and somewhat more seasonable temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 9-13)

Zonal pattern with weak westerly flow but a tendency for surface high pressure to be located in eastern Canada. A couple shower chances. No major heat.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

We received a bit of a break in the region in general yesterday after the pre-dawn rainfall gave way to a largely rain-free day in most areas, save for a few isolated quick-hitting showers. But that has moved along and the upper level low controlling the weather is still to our west, and we’re still in a moist southerly flow ahead of it. We have another batch of showers and embedded thunder moving across mainly eastern MA as I write this, having come up from the South Coast region just a short while ago, and even as this exits, we can still see occasional showers and thunderstorms at any time today – probably the most unsettled overall day of this particular stretch. Activity will diminish during tonight, but can re-fire in isolated to scattered form Thursday as the upper low moves right across the region. I think Thursday’s activity will have less coverage than today’s but any that do occur can still produce heavy rain and even some small hail as well. Friday, the now-weakening upper low will exit to our east with only a very limited chance of a pop up shower or storm in its limited lingering influence. Heading into the weekend, July starts with a fair and summery day Saturday, but the next trough / upper low will already be approaching the region from the west and this will toss an unsettled interruption into a portion of the weekend. Currently, I expect this to be the first half of Sunday when there is the opportunity for showers and thunderstorm, but this system may move along quickly enough to salvage the second half of Sunday. But at day 5, this is not a high-confidence forecast at this point. Check updates…

TODAY: Mainly cloudy with showers and embedded thunderstorms, especially eastern areas into mid morning. Sun/cloud mix late morning on but scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible at any time. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lingering showers, chance of thunderstorms, and areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Any heavier showers/storms may contain small hail. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, possibly gusty near any storms.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Patchy fog mainly interioer lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable to W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s to 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds return west to east. Chance of showers overnight. Patchy fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point returns to 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms until midday. Partly sunny with only isolated showers / thunderstorms thereafter. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind S shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 3-7)

While upper level low pressure is nearby, it looks weaker and displaced to the south and west, limiting the shower and thunderstorm chance which will favor interior and southern areas early in the weekend including Independence Day. A more zonal (west to east) flow takes over midweek on with seasonable warmth and a possible shower and thunderstorm a couple times with otherwise mainly fair weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 8-12)

Zonal pattern with weak westerly flow but a tendency for surface high pressure to be located in eastern Canada. This increases the onshore wind chance and is a factor in keeping major heat at bay. A couple passing disturbances can bring shower and thunderstorm chances, but this pattern still does not look as active as the one we’re in now.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

The upper level low pressure area in control of the current stretch of unsettled weather will keep its influence on our region through the final day of June, or less dramatic sounding, through Friday. This system will be drifting slowly eastward from the Great Lakes through the New England area during this time frame, still centered to our west through Wednesday, right over us on Thursday, and finally shifting off to our east by Friday. There are generally no changes to the overall idea of periodic showers and thunderstorms today and Wednesday, with stretches of rain-free weather too, then a more pop-up shower/storm day Thursday and less of a chance of this occurring by Friday as we see the moist southerly air flow we have now become variable Thursday then more westerly by Friday.

TODAY: Clouds dominate. Areas of fog South Coast / Cape Cod. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, but long rain-free stretches many areas. Highs

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Areas of fog, especially in the morning. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms likely, especially during the afternoon. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lingering showers, chance of thunderstorms, and areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Any heavier showers/storms may contain small hail. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, possibly gusty near any storms.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH with some coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Patchy fog mainly interioer lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind variable to W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s to 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 2-6)

The next upper low appears that it will be a weaker version of its predecessor and send a disturbance through at some point on July 2 with a shower/thunderstorm chance, then be pushed back to the south and southwest by a slightly stronger westerly flow that brings a drier weather pattern in for July 3-5 before a disturbance brings a shower/thunderstorm chance to end the period. Temperatures closer to normal and no major sustained heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 7-11)

Zonal pattern with weak westerly flow but a tendency for surface high pressure to be located in eastern Canada. This increases the onshore wind chance and is a factor in keeping major heat at bay. Limited but still a couple shower and thunderstorm chances, but not as active as the June pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 26-30)

This “work-week” through Friday is also the final 5 days of June, and the theme of the weather will be generally the same throughout as upper level low pressure will gradually drift eastward across the Northeast and New England, all the while undergoing a very slow weakening process while disturbances rotate around it, providing opportunities for showers and thunderstorms at various times. Getting a little more detailed where I can, we start today with extensive stratus and areas of fog. Ironically one of the areas with breaks of sun is the outer portion of Cape Cod, and while the South Coast and Cape will be in and out of low clouds and fog today and much of the week, they will also have “nicer” intervals. The stratus deck will break up across much of the region for at least partial sunshine today, but any sun will help fuel showers and thunderstorms, and today’s activity is most likely to occur during the afternoon over eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern to south central NH, while areas to the east are less likely to see them, at least until tonight. That’s when one of the aforementioned disturbances will swing into and across the region, keeping a shower and thunderstorm chance going through the night and into the early hours of Tuesday. I think if one day is to see the least amount of sun regionwide during this 5-day period, it will be Tuesday as we deal with a return of low clouds to start the day and above that an extensive canopy of mid to high level cloudiness associated with the remains of a Midwestern MCS (mesoscale convective system – aka a sizeable cluster of thunderstorms). Additional showers/storms can pop up in our area at any time regardless as another disturbance enters the region, courtesy our upper level low. Wednesday’s idea is more of a sun/cloud mix evolving as a slightly stronger southerly air flow tends to help the cloudiness line up with the wind in bands, but some of these can still evolve into bands of showers and thunderstorms. In this case you can get bands of showers staying over the same locations for longer periods of time as they line up with the wind flow, which will be southerly both at the surface and aloft. This set-up can lead to “training” or multiple shower and/or thunderstorm cells moving over the same region, which increases the chance of flooding, so we’ll have to watch for that. This activity should subside at night, but it may take its time doing so – will have to re-evaluate this based on monitoring short-range guidance leading up to it and then the radar that day and evening. By Thursday, the weakening upper low will be crossing overhead, and that day will feature a fair-weather start but pop up showers and thunderstorms possible anywhere during the afternoon and evening. These tend to cluster and then drive themselves via outflow boundaries when you have the upper low right overhead and no real strong steering wind, and then the activity diminishes with the lowering / setting sun. Also a higher hail potential can exist Thursday with the cold pool right atop the region. I’m optimistic that this low gets east of the region by Friday with a drier overall outlook, but still enough cyclonic flow and cold air aloft that we cannot rule out some pop up showers and storms, just with more isolated coverage and probably with a movement more to the southeast, in contrast to the more northward-moving showers/storms the first half of the week and the chaotic movement of any convection on Thursday. So you see, even within a pattern governed by the same system over several days, the details of certain things can change. There will be a lot to monitor as we go through these final June days.

TODAY: Extensive low clouds start the day, along with areas of fog especially South Coast. A sun/cloud mix follows but clouds may hang longer South Coast. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to severe, are most likely in eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern to south central NH, with only isolated activity east of there. Highs 70-77 immediate coast, 77-84 elsewhere but warmest interior valleys. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SE up to 10 MPH but can be variable, strong/gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Becoming cloudy. Areas of fog, likely most dense in coastal areas. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Lows 63-70 Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH, can be variable/gusty around any showers/storms.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Highs 71-78. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Areas of fog, especially in the morning. Showers and thunderstorms likely, especially during the afternoon. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds. Lingering showers, chance of thunderstorms, and areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Any heavier showers/storms may contain small hail. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, possibly gusty near any storms.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers early. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 1-5)

Another but likely weaker upper low will be around for the July 1-2 weekend with a chance of showers and thunderstorms both of those days. Exit upper low and enter weak high pressure with less shower/storm chance, better weather, more seasonable but no major heat July 3-5. Moderate confidence on that forecast trend with fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 6-10)

We should head to the 1/3 of the way through July mark with a pattern that features no sustained major heat, and a weaker version of the late June pattern, with the trough a little further west than we’ve seen it, reducing the shower/storm chance somewhat, but still with a few opportunities.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 25-29)

No real changes to yesterday’s discussion, so here’s a shorter summary of our weather as we head through the next 5 days. It will still be governed by upper level low pressure as the most dominant feature, with today being the warmest day. humidity being pretty high throughout the period, and a daily chance of showers and some thunderstorms. How it breaks down for shower and storm activity is today’s activity being most likely from early to late afternoon favoring areas along and north of I-90, isolated to scattered, Monday’s favoring showers over thunderstorms with more of an easterly air flow, and activity more likely west of the I-95 belt, Tuesday and Wednesday seeing the most shower/storm activity as the upper level low moves more into/over the region from the west, and Thursday seeing the start of a drying trend with still scattered showers/storms popping up. Tracking/refining of the day-to-day short-term weather will take place…

TODAY: Low clouds and fog abundant in the South Coast region, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with early-day patchy fog elsewhere and isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas along and north of I-90. Highs 78-85 except 71-78 South Coast, also may chill back in East Coast sections of MA / NH. Dew point 65-72. Wind S to variable at times up to 10 MPH, including sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated showers/thunderstorms early. Mostly cloudy with areas of fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog/drizzle. Periodic showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms, favoring the region west of the I-95 belt. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog. Isolated showers evening. Scattered to numerous showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Highs 71-78. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Breaking clouds with lingering showers possible evening. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

One upper low exits to the east early in the period with still a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms 30 but an overall drying trend into the weekend. Next disturbance from the west tries to move in around July 2-3 but may run against a little more high pressure and be held at bay with a more isolated shower/storm chance and a trend to dry for the holiday. Still no significant or sustained heat in sight.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 5-9)

General idea is for troughing in the eastern Midwest / Great Lakes / interior Northeast, with weak high pressure off the Atlantic Coast much of the time. This pattern features episodes of showers and thunderstorms but less active than the current pattern and still no major episodes of heat with more of a seasonable temperature pattern.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 24-28)

On this final weekend of June and first weekend of astronomical summer, we’re still talking about an unsettled pattern which has been with us pretty much all month. But that must be followed by the statement that we’ve had some pretty nice days in there too. As I’ve stated before, media will often focus on the negative so much so that they nearly prevent you from enjoying the good weather we have between the unsettled weather episodes. It’s also important to mention that the rainfall we’ve gotten this month has been preventing the region from slipping back into drought. Ironically though, the rainfall for the month, despite the above average days with rainfall, is still running near to below normal in many areas. But anyway, back to this weekend. We’ll be on the eastern side of upper level low pressure this weekend, in a southerly flow of warm, humid air. Today, a pretty solid disturbance goes by this morning and midday with a good swath of wet weather, but once it lifts beyond the region early this afternoon, we break into a sun/cloud mix across the region with only isolated showers and thunderstorms being a potential, but most areas staying rain-free, allowing later-day and evening outdoor plans to go on. Low clouds/fog may be stubborn at times along the South Coast both today and Sunday, limiting sunshine there while other areas see more of it. Sunday’s weather is a little less threatening in a coverage sense, as I now feel that instead of a scattered to numerous shower and storm situation, the coverage will be more of the isolated to scattered type, favoring the afternoon and early evening hours, but Sunday will also be the warmest day we’ve had in a while, with many areas in the 80s, except a cooler South Coast. An extension of high pressure to our northeast likely bends the wind flow around to more of an easterly set-up across the region by Monday, which can end up about 10 degrees cooler for high temps than Sunday in many areas. And it may take until later Tuesday to lose that and see more of a southerly air flow. Either way, the large scale wind pattern is at least partially if not directly onshore for either the eastern coastal or southern coastal areas Monday-Tuesday and even into Wednesday of next week when we should be in more of a southerly air flow regionwide. This would be in response to that many-times-talked-about second upper low that moves toward our region then slows down, like many others have done. The summation of this is that a humid, unsettled pattern continues into the middle of next week, but despite the gloom-and-doom look of your weather apps, you will likely find many hours of rain-free time in there as well.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with episodes of showers, becoming most widespread late morning-midday, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Clouds break for sun at times mid afternoon on but with the chance of a few isolated showers and thunderstorms, favoring eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern to south central NH while most areas are rain-free. Highs 76-83 likely occurring mid to late afternoon, warmest inland. Dew point 65-72. Wind variable but most often S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers possible. Areas of fog, most extensive South Coast. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Low clouds and fog dominate the South Coast region, otherwise a sun/cloud mix with early-day patchy fog elsewhere and isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, favoring eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH. Highs 78-85 except 71-78 South Coast. Dew point 65-72. Wind S to variable at times up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated showers/thunderstorms early. Mostly cloudy with areas of fog overnight. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog/drizzle. Periodic showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 72-79. Dew point 60s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog and numerous showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60s. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Highs 71-78. Dew point middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Areas of fog. Highs 72-79. Dew point middle 60s to around 70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

One upper low exits to the east early in the period with still a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms June 29 & 30 but an overall drying trend. Next disturbance traverses the region during the first 3 days of July from west to east but this one is going to be up against less favorable conditions to hang together so shower / thunderstorm chances will be limited and temperatures will attempt to hang out closer to seasonal normals heading into the Independence Day holiday period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 4-8)

Still not the highest confidence on the outlook this far in advance but still the overall trend is for a minimal shower and thunderstorm chance during this period but also a lack of significant heat. Plenty of fine-tuning to come…

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 23-27)

Once again the general outlook going through the weekend into early next week remains the same as previously prognosticated. One upper level low pressure area to our west, meandering and eventually wandering eastward while weakening through the weekend, will be overtaken by a second, stronger and quicker-moving one heading eastward through the early to middle portion of next week, while a weak upper ridge sits off the Atlantic Coast. This combination is warmer relative to recent weather, but not hot. However it is also a more humid and unsettled pattern. We are introduced to the higher humidity during the course of the day today as a warm front lifts northward across the region. This front will only be accompanied by limited shower activity. Even the clouds associated with it have been struggling to maintain themselves while pushing northward, as you may have noticed by yesterday turning out sunnier than predicted just hours earlier – not that anyone complained about that given our recent weather. Today, there is a blanket of stratus clouds across east central and southeastern MA into RI and even some coastal fog to start the day, and some of this will try to break up as the morning goes on, but much of the cloud deck will remain in place, and then expand, but become a more organized, broken south-to-north moving deck of low clouds as we increase the moisture similarly across the region today. Meanwhile, the mid and higher level clouds associated with the warm front have struggled to move north against drier air but will eventually win that battle in a more substantial way, although not completely enough so that breaks in both the higher and lower clouds can’t allow breaks of sun even into later today. If there are any heavier showers in the isolated assortment, they will likely occur over the region just east of the CT Valley. Tonight into Saturday morning, a disturbance adds to the shower chance while the humidity continues to bump up, and these will be scattered, along with some downpours which carry a slight chance of thunder into late morning. After that, the tendency will be for slightly more stable air to arrive from the South Coast through eastern MA and southeastern NH, while areas to the west can see a few diurnal showers and thunderstorms into Saturday afternoon before activity diminishes for a quiet but humid Saturday evening – the first night that feels like a more classic summer night. Another disturbance approaching from the west on Sunday will help ignite showers and thunderstorms along with the help of solar heating and higher humidity during Sunday’s midday through early evening hours. Similar weather is expected Monday and Tuesday, but showers and storms may end up more numerous on Tuesday with a slow-moving cold front moving into the region from the west in response to a stronger push from upper level low pressure starting to move eastward with a bit more momentum. We’ll continue our mild to warm (not hot) humid pattern through the beginning of the week.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 71-78, coolest South Coast. Dew point passing 60. Wind NE under 10 MPH becoming SE this morning-midday eventually shifting to S increasing to 5-15 MPH by later in the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers evening. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms mainly RI and eastern MA through mid morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms favoring southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT during the afternoon hours. Highs 76-83. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers, mainly overnight. Patchy fog forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon hours. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms early. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon hours. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms becoming isolated. Areas of fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms becoming more numerous. Highs 72-79. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

Upper level low pressure will still be moving eastward across the region at the beginning of the period with showers and thunderstorms most likely. After that, a gradual transition to a more westerly / zonal flow will take place as the upper low lifts out and weakens and a combination of westerly flow sinking southward through eastern Canada and weak high pressure off the East Coast pushes the tendency for a trough further west and south into the Ohio Valley and middle Mississippi Valley region by the start of the new month. This would be a drier trend for our region, but without major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 3-7)

Not high confidence, but slightly more than yesterday, that we are in a less active pattern with minimal shower and thunderstorm chances and no major heat. Continued re-evaluation of this pattern evolution will take place with daily updates.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 22-26)

I don’t have many adjustments to make to yesterday’s discussion and forecast. On the large scale, we remain in a transitional but somewhat repeating pattern. Transient Rex block (high pressure eastern Canada / US Northeast with low pressure to the south southwest of this region) moves into a transient omega where the trough to our southwest becomes the eastern member of a pair of upper level lows (Ohio Valley and West Coast to Rockies initially). But this pattern will be transitional, as in not generally stationary upper features but ones that progress eastward, albeit not at the same speeds. The easternmost low takes its time drifting eastward through this coming weekend while the one further west is moving along more swiftly, and the reason the “omega” setup is short-lived is because the western upper low catches up and overtakes the eastern one in the Northeast by early next week. What sensible weather to we get as a result of all of this. In summary: An unsettled overall pattern lacking any real heat, but not lacking humidity. We start today again with some areas of stratus, most of it set to dissipate as the sun rises higher into the sky, but look for increasing high to mid level clouds from the south north. Why? A warm front will approach today into Friday and likely take until late Friday to get full through the region. I’m not expecting widespread rainfall from this feature, as initially it will battle dry air, and some previous model forecasts of a rainy Thursday afternoon/evening will not come to fruition. Some sprinkle/rain may work into the South Coast and a few areas south of I-90 by this evening, but not enough to cancel any outdoor plans you have. Some patchy rain moves up through the region tonight and when we get to Friday it’s more a domination by clouds and not so much by rain, with just a few passing showers possible as the warm front works its way across the region. If there are any heavier showers Friday they are more likely to occur in the western reaches of the WHW forecast area (toward the Connecticut Valley). Despite the inability to really heat up as the warm front passes due to the abundant cloud cover, you will notice the humidity spike up. And the higher humidity is to be with us through the coming weekend and Monday as well. During this time, we’ll see the upper low to our west meander a bit and then edge eastward, making it close to the region by Sunday, while the second low will be playing catch up and reach the Great Lakes / Midwest by Monday. Along with the aforementioned higher humidity we’ll also see shower and thunderstorm chances this weekend and Monday, but I suspect Saturday’s activity will be more on the isolated to scattered side, favoring Cape Cod early in the day and interior areas mostly well west and northwest of Boston from the afternoon through evening, so Saturday itself may not really be that bad a day with warmer temperatures and the chance for more sun, as long as you don’t mind the humidity increase. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Sunday and Monday, but there will be a diurnal component to them, with most numerous activity likely reserved for the afternoon and early evening hours. And while it will certainly not be raining all the time any of these days, any rainfall that occurs has the potential to be heavy.

TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. A light shower possible South Coast later and anywhere south of I-90 by evening. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A few light showers around. Lows 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 71-78, coolest South Coast. Dew point passing 60. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers evening. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, favoring Cape Cod early and eastern CT / central MA / southwestern NH later. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Patchy fog forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon hours. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms early. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, favoring the afternoon hours. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Upper level low pressure traverses the region from west to east into the middle of next week with shower and thunderstorm chances and high humidity through June 28, then as a weak ridge moves in behind the departing low expect a drying trend and slightly warmer conditions June 29 through July 1.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 2-6)

While this forecast is still low confidence, the trend is similar to the thinking of yesterday. A weak block may reappear with high pressure north and low pressure south, but displaced a little more so the high is further east and low further southwest. Placement and oscillation of features would determine day to day weather but the overall idea for now is a little drier and temperatures that run near to slightly below normal with a tendency for more large scale flow off the Atlantic instead of a land breeze. This would prevent major heat through the holiday period.

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 21-25)

In case you forgot, summer officially arrives today – solstice 10:57 a.m.! Early this morning a blanket of stratus clouds covers the rising sun from the Merrimack Valley northward, save for a few breaks in the overcast, while a veil of high clouds filters it somewhat along the South Coast, and some stratus patches have also made their way into MA East Coast locations, with a few more patches of stratus in northwestern RI and northeastern CT too. The patchy stratus will dissipate as the high-angle sun rises into the sky, and the more extensive stratus deck to the north will initially be fed by the eastern MA stratus which can increase for a while into mid morning, but otherwise will begin break up before undergoing a transformation into diurnal cumulus clouds as morning becomes afternoon. The onshore flow should eventually prevent these from forming over the coastal plain. Some of the cumulus may grow enough to produce a few showers over the interior higher elevations from southwestern NH through central MA and perhaps as far southeast as northwestern RI, but these will quickly dissipate with the setting sun. With high pressure sliding into the waters to our east, a light east to southeast air flow will allow additional patches of stratus to form tonight as the aforementioned shield of high clouds to the south starts a northward trend. That cloud area, associated with low pressure and a warm front to our south, will thicken as the day goes along Thursday, but right now I expect any of the showers associated with the warm front to struggle against dry air and hold off until late evening or overnight / early hours of Friday. That front will continue a slow northward push and Friday, once prognosticated by model guidance to be a summery day with sunshine and highs of 90+ will actually end up as a mainly cloudy day in the 70s with rain showers. Our weekend is so-so as it stands now. I think the warm front does lift northward through the region by Saturday, with both days at least having a shot of 80+ in all but immediate coastal areas, especially the South Coast, where a southerly air flow will keep those locations sub-80 for high temps. Higher humidity will be noticeable, as we haven’t had much of it so far. Also, it’ll be unsettled, not in the way it was last weekend with upper level and surface low pressure plaguing the region, but this time just from pop up showers and possible thunderstorms, which will become more numerous on Sunday as a cold front slowly approaches from the west…

TODAY: Sun/cloud variety. A pop up shower possible southwestern NH, central MA, and northwestern RI this afternoon. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind ESE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers possible in southern areas especially South Coast. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs 72-79, coolest South Coast. Dew point nearing 60. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers evening. Lows 62-69. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 77-84. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Patchy fog forming. Lows 62-69. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 26-30)

Upper level low pressure lifts from the Great Lakes through southeastern Canada, and we’ll be in a southerly air flow with a slow-moving frontal boundary the first part of next week with periodic showers/thunderstorms. This system loses grip with improving weather by later in the week. Temperatures below to near normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 1-5)

There’s a lot of uncertainty in this forecast for the early days of July. Oftentimes it can be really hard to see a persistent pattern just vanish, and I don’t think we’ll see that, but I also don’t think it’ll be as unsettled as previously. I see a few hints that a Rex-type block may return. We have to watch eastern Canada for high pressure, which if strong enough, can trend the region drier but also prevent significant heat. If such a high is too far north, unsettled weather can sneak in as there will still be a tendency for upper level troughing in the Great Lakes to Mid Atlantic, and if, though less likely, the high ended up pushing further south, the door could open up for hotter weather. I see that final “option” as least likely though. Will monitor and give this outlook a better shot in the coming days. For now, I’d lean toward a drier overall pattern with temperatures below to near normal.