DAYS 1-5 (MAY 22-26)

The region had a split weekend, with 1-3 inches of beneficial rain Saturday and a return to dry weather Sunday. If you were paying attention, the sun went red on us just before setting last night as another wildfire smoke plume approached the region from western Canada via the Great Lakes. This smoke will be around to filter our sunshine early this week, but the air will be on the cool side with high pressure centered north of our region. This will create a broad onshore flow for the region and of course the coastal areas will be coolest as a result. By late Tuesday and Wednesday, the high will shift southeastward and set up a milder southerly wind here, but on Wednesday that means the South Coast will be coolest in the region as the wind will come directly off the water there. Our only shot of rain during the next 5 days comes Wednesday afternoon and evening in the form of a band of showers along a sharp cold front. This front will be moving southward out of eastern Canada and pass rather swiftly through the region. High pressure building toward and into the region Thursday-Friday will return dry and cooler weather to the region.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sunshine. Highs 61-68, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to E.

TONIGHT: Smoke aloft otherwise clear. Lows 43-50. Wind E under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 64-71, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny start, then clouds advancing northwest to southeast. Showers crossing much of the region northwest to southeast late afternoon and evening, most coverage to the north and west, less to the southeast. Highs 68-75, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to NW from northwest to southeast late afternoon on.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 27-31)

Memorial Day Weekend (May 27-29) carries some forecast uncertainty. Current thoughts are that low pressure to the south will stay far enough to the south to avoid direct impact, and upper level low pressure will impact areas to our north with diurnal shower chances, leaving our region dry with a slow warming trend, but this is not a high confidence forecast, so check for updates through the week. May 30-31 may carry a shower chance with a trough of low pressure in the region and a disturbance or two passing through.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 1-5)

General pattern dry but one or two brief shower chances with disturbances passing by as a weak upper trough will be the main feature in the region. Temperatures near normal – no heat foreseen.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 21-25)

After some beneficial rainfall yesterday, it’s back to the dry regime again. The cold front is offshore, but in New England style we’ll be a little milder than yesterday behind it as we replace a moist southerly air flow with a drying westerly one, which results in downslope warming. We’ll have some cloudiness to contend with but eventually the sun will win out later today. Cooler air does arrive for early in the week as high pressure to the north sends a broad scale onshore flow into the region Monday into Tuesday. High pressure slips to the east and a warmer southerly air flow arrives Wednesday, but that warm-up will be short-lived as a sharp cold front will drop out of Canada to bring our only risk of wet weather during the next 5 days on Wednesday evening in the form of showers. This leads to a cool-down for Thursday with more dry weather.

TODAY: Lots of clouds with a trend to more sun later. Highs 67-74. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind E under 10 MPH..

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69, coolest coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Late day showers possible. Highs 64-71. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely in the evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-67, coolest in eastern coastal areas. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 26-30)

Guidance has been amusing to look at during the last couple of days with two medium range models flipping the forecast of high pressure and a warm-up for Memorial Day Weekend to one of low pressure moving into the region with unsettled weather, while another model has kept it the same as previously – dry, warming up. The most recent guidance set gets basically 3 different forecasts. What I am eyeing at this point as we head from mid week into and through Memorial Day Weekend and to the penultimate day of May is a tendency for a trough to want to be in place, but one that would just mean the potential for a couple pop-up showers with colder air aloft. This is a (cautiously) optimistic forecast compared to recent guidance trends but one I will go with for now, leaving room for adjustment as the time period draws closer.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

With low confidence in the 6-10 day period, you can’t really rebound to higher confidence in the 11-15, so for now I’ll continue to lean to the drier regime winning, but a tendency for Canadian cooling to be readily available to move in.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 20-24)

A kind-of-split weekend. We don’t lose all of our Saturday to wet weather. Most of our morning is dry, though by later this morning some showers can certainly be occurring in the South Coast region. The bulk of the shower activity outside of one tongue of moisture moving across the region this afternoon will occur tonight with the passage of a cold front, when some heavier downpours can occur and there is even the risk of some thunder. However, as is sometimes the case, this cold front will not be followed by immediate cooling, and Sunday, while carrying a fair amount of clouds at times, will be a fairly mild day with a drying downsloping westerly wind. Cooler air does arrive by Monday with more of a broad scale onshore flow developing with high pressure to our north. This high settles across the region with a more tranquil Tuesday. When we get to Wednesday, I’ve completely abandoned the notion of any moisture sneaking up from low pressure to the south, and most of the day will be dry as it looks now, but a cold front will approach from the northwest and may bring showers before that day is over – of course dependent on timing which is far from highly certain out that many days.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely Cape Cod region midday into afternoon with isolated to scattered showers possible anywhere else. Highs 61-68, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunder. Areas of fog. Lows 52-59. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds at times, some sun at others. Chance of a shower early in the day favoring eastern coastal areas and especially Cape Cod. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Late day showers possible. Highs 64-71. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 25-29)

High pressure is expected to dominate the weather from the middle of the week right into and through the entire Memorial Day Weekend with temperatures starting out seasonable to slightly cooler than normal then moderating to above normal. Moderately confident that upper level low pressure down the Atlantic Coast stays there but will obviously monitor. We’ve seen fair weather outlooks this far in advance turn around on us before and in weather, that kind of history can repeat itself.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

Looking for a trough and some unsettled weather potential to end May, and a return to fair weather and a seasonable weather pattern to begin June.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 19-23)

Today will look a little more like summer again due to the smoky haze in the sky from the ongoing Canadian wildfires, and we’ll warm up a little more after our midweek cool spell as we get a southerly wind going too, but keep in mind that a southerly wind is a direct ocean breeze on the South Coast, so it will be cooler there than the remainder of the region. The weekend is kind of a split, with an unsettled Saturday and improvement Sunday. On Saturday we’ll be in the southerly air flow but this time with more moisture involved in the way of a mainly cloudy sky. One swath of moisture will approach from the south while a trough and cold front move our way from the west. My thoughts are similar to what I wrote yesterday in that I think the initial area of showers from southern moisture will peel off to the east, clipping Cape Cod mostly, and a hang back area being captured by the front from the west, helping to give most of the region its showery weather later in the day Saturday and Saturday evening/night, lingering into very early Sunday as the frontal boundary reaches the coast then pushes offshore. This sets up a drier day for Sunday, although it will be quite mild with a drying westerly wind behind the front and the cooler air lagging somewhat. High pressure should hang to the north Monday with more of an easterly wind setting up and that will end up a cooler day as a result. With high pressure more atop the region Tuesday we’ll be fair with light wind but coastal sea breeze can easily get going, keeping that area coolest.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun with patchy clouds. Highs 67-74 except 60-67 immediate South Coast / Cape Cod / Islands. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely Cape Cod region midday into afternoon. Showers arrive west to east late-day / evening. Highs 62-69, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunder. Areas of fog. Lows 52-59. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds at times, some sun at others. Chance of a shower early in the day favoring eastern coastal areas and especially Cape Cod. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N shifting to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69, coolest coastal areas. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 24-28)

Still watching low pressure to the south in case it comes further north than guidance says early in the period, otherwise looks like high pressure wants to dominate with one front sneaking down to cool the region off prior to next weekend before a warm-up begins.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

Current call is for fair weather to hold through Memorial Day (May 29) before a system from that west brings a shower threat to end the month. Fair, seasonable start to June.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 18-22)

A cold start this morning will turn around quickly today with a decent temperature rise off morning lows which landed right in the expected range (upper 20s in coldest spots like Taunton, 30s in most areas, and lower 40s in urban centers like downtown Boston). Some locations (Taunton for example again), can rise well over 30 degrees today to their high temp, while others (Boston) will have a smaller “diurnal” – the term that refers to the difference between the morning low and afternoon high temps. Typical springtime in New England though as this is the season we see this most. Folks in southern portions of the WHW forecast area (south central to southeastern MA, eastern CT, and RI) awake to a hazier sky due to a plume of wildfire smoke mixed with some high clouds carried in by the upper winds, while areas to the north and northeast have a clearer sky and brighter sun to start, but more of that smoke may make its way in from the northwest as the day goes on, so we may end up with more of a hazy look to the sky for most areas by day’s end. Other than some smoke aloft it will be a clear night tonight, but with an increasing dew point on a more southerly air flow, despite fairly light wind we won’t be able to chill down like last night, and this will lead to a warmer day tomorrow still with a fair amount of sun despite some additional mid to high altitude smoke and additional cloud cover. This leads us to a more complex outlook for the weekend. Saturday, we’ll be watching the approach of two systems. The first is a trough and frontal system from the west, the second a weak low pressure area moving north northeastward from the Middle Atlantic coastal area. Current thoughts are that the moisture from the second system will split, with part 1 peeling off to the east to possibly clip Cape Cod with some wet weather during the day Saturday, favoring the afternoon, and part 2 getting caught up in the approaching frontal system from the west, which will bring the most widespread showers to the region as a whole Saturday evening and night, then exiting off the coast during early Sunday morning. This will set up a drier finish to the weekend, but we may still have at least some cloudiness around Sunday as colder air moves back in aloft while the surface is slower to cool down and dry out. By Monday, Canadian high pressure will be back with fair, cooler weather.

TODAY: Sunshine, but filtered by high clouds and some high altitude smoke in southern areas early and then again from west to east by later in the day. Highs 61-68. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, then W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except some smoke aloft. Lows 47-54. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud/smoke aloft mix. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely Cape Cod region midday into afternoon. Showers arrive west to east late-day / evening. Highs 67-74, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 50-57. Wind variable to SW up to 10 MPH, shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds at times, some sun at others. Chance of a shower early in the day favoring eastern coastal areas and especially Cape Cod. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 23-27)

Watch for a potential sneaky system with a wet weather threat in the May 24-26 window, otherwise dry weather should dominate the beginning and end of the period, and much of the period of the unsettled weather fails to materialize.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

The middle and end of the Memorial Day Weekend should be dry and warmer followed by the potential for some showery weather to close out May, and a return to fair weather to start the month of June.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 17-21)

High pressure will dominate our weather for the next 3 days, but with different weather based on the high’s center and interaction with other systems. Today’s windy and cool with the high center to our west and northwest and a strong cold front just having gone by, with low pressure to our northeast. There are some clouds near the eastern coast that will move off, and sun will dominate otherwise for a brief before we see diurnal cloud development and more of a sun/cloud mix. These clouds clear out and the wind begins to drop off tonight as high pressure’s center nudges closer, and these conditions will promote radiational cooling, with many areas (except urban centers) falling into the 30s with some frost forming. Cold spots of the interior can fall below freezing, threatening some early agricultural development. We do rebound nicely Thursday afternoon with less wind and full sun, and as high pressure shifts off the coast by Friday we continue a warm-up. For several days I’ve been eyeing potential / probable unsettled weather for a portion of the weekend, and as of this time I feel it will play out like this. A trough swings into and through the region from west to east during the course of the weekend. At the surface, a cold front approaches Saturday, while a tongue of subtropical moisture makes a run at us from the south. Current thought is that a lot of that subtropical moisture misses us just to the east, but may bring some wet weather to Cape Cod during Saturday, while the rest of us see showers from the cold front moving through Saturday evening / night. That front that moves offshore and Sunday we return to dry weather but breezy and cooler conditions. I’ll monitor and tweak this as/if necessary.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35 interior lower elevations, 35-42 elsewhere, mildest in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind W increasing to 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers likely Cape Cod region midday hours. Chance of showers later in the day mainly southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT. Highs 67-74, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 22-26)

High pressure in control with fair weather early in the period. Watching one low to the south and a trough from the west with potential unsettled weather mid to late period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 27-31)

High pressure returns with fair weather, a cool start then a warming trend for Memorial Day Weekend (May 27-29). Next trough may bring unsettled weather back to the region for the last couple days of the month.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 16-20)

A combination of warm advection cloud cover and Canadian wildfire smoke has our sky a hazy grey to start the day today, but we’ll break into some filtered sun at times midday and beyond, and it’ll warm up nicely, with many areas making a run at 80 for high temps, along with a gusty wind. This dry and windy combo also has our brush fire danger quite elevated. Any brushfires can spread rapidly on a day like today. This will also be the case tomorrow, regarding the fire threat, but the weather will be much different. A cold front sweeps through the region from north to south tonight, with a threat of a brief shower at most, and it’s right back to dry weather with a gusty wind and temperatures barely cracking 60 Wednesday. As high pressure builds over the region and the wind drops off at night, radiational cooling will allow the temperature to drop below 40 in many areas, exception urban centers, and even blow freezing in normal cold spots. The threat of frost and isolated freeze is there for early Thursday. Temperatures rebound by about 30 to 35 degrees during the day Thursday though, so the chill will be gone by the time we reach afternoon under plenty of sunshine and a sky that should be devoid of wildfire smoke, presenting as a more cobalt blue. High pressure will bring fair, warmer weather for Friday before a trough approaches Saturday with an increase in cloud cover but continued mild to warm air. Current expecting timing on the next unsettled weather event brings a shower threat by Saturday evening.

TODAY: Smoke aloft while clouds give way to hazy sun at times. Highs 74-81. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts as high as 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A passing shower possible. Lows 45-52. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts from north to south.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 58-65. Wind N 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35 interior lower elevations, 35-42 elsewhere, mildest in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind W increasing to 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers by evening. Highs 67-74, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 21-25)

Cooling trend with dry weather returning May 21 and continuing May 22, then a slight warm-up preceding a rain chance and cool-down later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 26-30)

Unsettled weather may start and end the period, and current cautiously optimistic timing suggests a dry Memorial Day Weekend with a cool start then a warming trend.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 15-19)

A dry stretch of weather will continue through the next 5 days, with only one shower threat, and a minor one at that, being with the passage of a strong cold front Tuesday night. The front will be strong, but there will be little moisture to work with. That front is part of a pattern that while dry, will bring some temperature changes, most notably a shot of chilly air at mid week that culminates in the chance of frost and even some freezing that can impact early agricultural development Wednesday night / early Thursday morning, so farmers and local gardeners take note and monitor! Before that, we have a cool start and warmer afternoon today as high pressure shifts to the south, a warmer day Tuesday ahead of the cold front. After the chill-down we rebound again to warmer weather by Friday. So strap in, it’s temperature roller coaster time! Also another reminder of the high brush fire danger this week due to dry weather and periods of windy weather.

TODAY: Sunniest morning, then a cloud-sun sky share during the afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 74-81. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35 interior lower elevations, 35-42 elsewhere, mildest in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind W increasing to 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-54. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 71-78. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 20-24)

Still have to work out the timing of a frontal system moving through with a shower threat some time during the May 20-21 weekend, and whether or not a surge of additional moisture will make its way up from the south. Fair weather follows early next week, but rain chances return by mid next week. Warmest early period, then a cooling trend.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 25-29)

Additional unsettled weather is possible early in the period, then a return to dry weather is expected heading into the Memorial Day Weekend. Variable temperatures, coolest at first then warming.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 14-18)

Dry times continue. You may recall some number of days ago when this period of time was further out, I prognosticated a dry pattern with temperatures dependent on wind direction. Well, here we go with that. Today’s going to be about 10 degrees cooler than yesterday on a fresh northerly breeze behind a cold front that went through otherwise unnoticed. But still a very nice Sunday for Mother’s Day, and I wish a happy one to all moms reading this! Some high cloudiness may filter the sun at times today, this being the northern edge of a heavier cloud shield to our south as well as some streaming in via the Great Lakes region. A few fair-weather cumulus clouds may also pop up during the day. The Canadian high pressure area that delivered the brief cool shot will slip southward and turn the wind back to west and southwest Monday and Tuesday, when we’ll experience a warm up. Another cold front dives out of Canada and crosses our region with no more than a brief shower Tuesday evening, and puts us back into a cool air mass for Wednesday and early Thursday, but the next temperature rebound occurs quickly by Thursday afternoon as our dry weather / up-and-down temperature pattern continues. Of note, while leaf-out somewhat mitigates brush fire danger, it’s still somewhat present due to the dry weather and often breezy conditions. Use extreme caution with any open flame or anything outside that can spark a brush fire. They can spread quickly!

TODAY: Partly cloudy but still plenty of sun. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52 but may be a touch cooler in normal chilly spots. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early but diminishing.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers late in the day. Highs 71-78. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 58-65. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35 interior lower elevations, 35-42 elsewhere, mildest in urban centers. Wind NW up to 10 MPH, diminishing.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind W increasing to 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 19-23)

The warm up extends into the end of the week with fair weather on May 19. Current timing suggests a cold front will swing through the region early in the May 20-21 weekend with a quick shower threat and a return to seasonable temperatures and mainly dry weather for the balance of the weekend, then continued dry weather and a warm-up early the following week (May 22-23).

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 24-28)

The first part of this period looks a little wetter and cooler with a trough in the region, but we may quickly return to a dry regime right after that.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 13-17)

We’re back in a dry pattern, which isn’t great agriculturally should it continue, but in the short term it does mean a really nice weekend! As previously noted, there will be some clouds around, especially in our southern sky during the first half of today, and a few more clouds may sail across the sky later today or this evening with a cold front passing by. But this front will pass by mainly dry, and will only serve to bring cooler air in for Mother’s Day when highs will be in the 60s after today’s 70+ in most areas. High pressure sinks to the south and we stay dry but warm up early next week, Monday into Tuesday. It’s only Tuesday evening that a brief shower may accompany the next cold front that brings in the next shot of cool air for Wednesday.

TODAY: Clouds over the MA/RI/CT sky give way to more sun but a brief sprinkle may occur South Coast early. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers late in the day. Highs 71-78. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of a shower early. Lows 45-52. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 60-67. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 18-22)

Similar to the pattern preceding, overall pattern looks on the dry side. Warming up after a cool start to the period. Frontal system swings through looking like the early part of the May 20-21 weekend, a quick cool-down following it.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 23-27)

This 5-day period may feature more of a low pressure trough governing the pattern in our region and a better chance of some wet weather at times along with a cooling trend overall.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 12-16)

Everything from yesterday’s discussion is on track so far. A disturbance will bring a more substantial swath of cloudiness and some shower activity across the region from northwest to southeast this morning, followed by more sun, which can then fuel a couple showers and possible thunderstorms later in the day – though these look like they’ll be low coverage. A little summer preview in the way it feels too today with many areas reaching or beating 80 for high temps – exception South Coast especially Cape Cod and any other areas along the coast where wind has to travel over water, which is much cooler. Also the humidity level ticks up just a tad, not really enough to be uncomfortable but enough to be noticed. Saturday, we still have a secondary front to come by, but in general drier area will already be here and I leave only the chance of a morning shower in the forecast for the South Coast as I don’t think anything else will pop up. Don’t expect a 100% sunny day for all of the region on Saturday though. We’ll see a shield of high clouds especially across the southern sky for the first part of the day and then some patchy clouds with that secondary front from the northwest later. More sun should dominate on Sunday but with some fair-weather clouds probably popping up. We will have a cooler day on Sunday with a northerly wind courtesy high pressure to our west, but this is a case where “cooler” just means highs in the 60s instead of the 70s – still quite nice for Mother’s Day. Monday looks like a decent day at this time with high pressure keeping one disturbance well to the south, and the surface high’s axis of center far enough south that we get a westerly breeze, allowing it to warm back up to 70+ high temps for most of the region. Whether we stay mild again through Tuesday will depend on the speed of an approaching cold front from the north, which will also bring a shower threat at some point that day if it’s quick enough to move in. For now, I lean toward the mild day, and the late shower threat, but it’s day 5, so expect at least some tweaking to that, unless I guessed right this time. 🙂 Also of note, while there is still a little bit of smoke aloft, the thickest of it has pushed away from the region and it won’t be nearly as much a factor in the sky over the coming days.

TODAY: Intervals of clouds and sun. Showers progress northwest to southeast and become less numerous through mid morning, then a chance of a passing shower or thunderstorm later in the day with most areas dry. Highs 78-85 except 70-77 South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. An early-day shower possible South Coast. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers late in the day. Highs 71-78. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 17-21)

Watch for a push of cool air out of Canada with a gusty breeze on May 17, a moderation in temperature with continued fair weather May 18 and 19. Watching the May 20-21 weekend for potential showers at some point as a trough and frontal system move in from the west.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 22-26)

If the trough from the west later in the 6-10 day period is slower, this period may start with showers, and additional unsettled weather may visit by mid period as well with a trough in the region. Temperatures trend cooler.

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 11-15)

Bringing the short term into better focus leads to a couple detail adjustments on the forecast for today and Friday, and a minor re-tweak for the weekend (don’t worry, the latter is good). First, we still have a smoke plume wavering around the Northeast, via Canada, like a semi-transparent ribbon about 5,000 to 10,000 feet overhead, and that will continue to filter the sun that we do get today and Friday, but unlike the last couple days, we’ll also be contending with more actual cloudiness at times, and a couple shower and slight thunderstorm chances as a series of disturbances pass by. Timing on those: This afternoon, Friday morning, and late-day on Friday. Today-Friday will be quite warm – another preview of summer for our area. Although we will still have one more frontal boundary to cross the region later on Saturday, the latest trends in reliable guidance has been to largely evacuate moisture from the region that would help to fuel any showers, so other than the potential for a morning shower favoring the South Coast on Saturday, I’m keeping the forecast for that day dry. While Saturday’s high temperatures will be down a peg or two from the previous two days, it will still be a warm one. Behind that front, a northerly breeze between eastern Canadian low pressure and Great Lakes high pressure will bring pleasant air to the region for Mother’s Day on Sunday. A switch to a westerly wind should trigger a Monday warm-up. Different from my previous thinking is that I expect dry weather that day as moisture from the west that I had thought might get here, likely will not.

TODAY: Smoke aloft. Filtered sun through midday, more clouds afternoon and a possible shower and remote chance of a thunderstorm mid afternoon to evening northwest to southeast. Highs 76-83 except cooler South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouds exit evening but return overnight. Smoke aloft remains. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers early to mid morning. Sun/cloud mix thereafter. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm late day. Additional smoke aloft. Highs 78-85, cooler South Coast. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Additional smoke aloft. Lows 52-59. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. An early-day shower possible South Coast. Potential smoke aloft early. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 16-20)

Expecting a ridge to our west, and a trough in the Northeast, but not a deep one, and its axis a bit to the east. This pattern would feature a series of frontal passages with minimal shower chances, a mostly dry regime, and a few temperature swings. Should start this period with a cool-down, and end it with a warm-up.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 21-25)

Shower chance early period, rain chance mid to late period, but low confidence forecast. Temperature trend may be down as well.

Additional wildfire smoke from Canada will give the sky a hazy look at times over the next few days. We had a one-day cool-down from a flow off the ocean yesterday, but that switches back to a regional land breeze today with a warm-up, and this continues into late week but with an opportunity from a shower as a warm front goes by later Thursday / Thursday night, and a chance of a shower or thunderstorm both Friday evening and Saturday afternoon from a pair of cold fronts that have to cross the region. This will lead to a fair and slightly cooler (but nice) Sunday, courtesy Canadian high pressure.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Smoke aloft. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny / smoke aloft. Highs 75-82, cooler South Coast. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 52-59. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Late-day or evening showers/thunderstorms possible. Highs 76-83, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a chance of showers early, then clearing. Lows 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 15-19)

Unsettled weather early next week with low pressure passing through the region bringing a chance of showers or rain and a cooling trend, with fair weather returning later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 20-24)

Brief shower chance around May 21-22 with passing trough. Rain chance increases at the end of the period with a potential approaching/arriving low pressure area.

Upper level winds brought a significant smoke plume across our sky from west central Canadian wildfires yesterday, and this continues into today, putting a veil over the sun once again in an otherwise mainly sunny sky. Some high clouds are crossing the sky as well this morning in association with convective activity passing to the southwest of New England, but these will exit at midday leaving us with just the smoke filter and eventually a few fair-weather flat cumulus clouds that may develop this afternoon too. An onshore wind in the wake of a back-door cold front will make today the coolest of this week, but a return to a land breeze tomorrow and the departure of the smoke plume will bring brighter sun and a warm-up. Thursday-Friday will be even warmer days but will not match exactly, weather-wise. High pressure keeps the weather settled with sun Thursday. Clouds and a stray shower or even a thunderstorm may cross the region, favoring western and northern areas, with a warm front Thursday night. This brings in slightly higher humidity for Friday, which those sensitive to may notice, and the approach of a cold front that day means more clouds and eventually the chance of a few showers/thunderstorms in the region, but at this point it does look like most of that day will be rain-free. Saturday, a west northwest air flow downslopping off the hills and mountains will keep us fairly warm and it will be a day with a fair amount of sun as well – a very nice start to the second weekend of May.

TODAY: Smoke-filtered sun & a few clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest at the coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Smoke clears out. Lows 35-40 inland with coolest in valley areas, 40-45 urban centers and immediate coast. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm, favoring central MA and southwestern NH. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Late-day or evening showers/thunderstorms possible. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a chance of showers early, then clearing. Lows 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 14-18)

Fair weather hangs on to finish off the weekend on May 14. Unsettled weather early next week with low pressure passing through the region bringing a chance of showers or rain and a cooling trend, with fair weather returning later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 19-23)

General pattern looks dry and somewhat seasonable though with variable temperatures. A weak trough in the region does bring the opportunity for a few showers here and there but no strong indications of bigger rain events.

This week, we don’t have to contend with any slow moving upper level lows. It’s a pretty straightforward outlook without much opportunity for complication, so let’s go over it. Today, a disturbance departing the region first thing has some clouds over mainly southeastern areas but these will exit for a mainly sunny sky and pleasantly mild to warm temperatures. Tonight, a back door cold front moves into and across the region from northwest to southwest, but with only a few clouds and no rain whatsoever. This sets up a fair but cooler Tuesday and early Wednesday, but before Wednesday is over, we’ll already start to see a moderating trend beginning. High pressure slides offshore Thursday and Friday with a solid warm-up. Thursday features sun, but by Friday some more clouds enter the picture, along with the increased chance for showers (perhaps thunderstorms) – representing the one and only shot at precipitation during this week – as a cold front approaches from the west. A hint of higher humidity on Friday ahead of that front will give the day a bit of a summer-preview feel in comparison to the lower humidity days that precede it.

TODAY: Early clouds, then dominant sun. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to NE.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 39-46, coolest interior low elevations. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 62-69. Wind variable to W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Late-day or evening showers/thunderstorms possible. Highs 73-80. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 13-17)

Early call on the May 13-14 weekend looks great with high pressure in control, then an episode or two of unsettled weather early to middle of following week as some disturbances move through from west to east. Temperatures near to above normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 18-22)

Overall pattern looks mainly dry during this period with variable temperatures, often dependent on wind direction.