DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

High pressure keeps control of the weather through the weekend and into Monday with fair weather and temperatures running quite a bit above seasonal normals as a trough of low pressure holds all the colder and stormy weather in the western US. With a gradual increase in moisture both in the lower and upper levels we may see some low clouds and fog again tonight / early Saturday, and high cloudiness at times today and Saturday, with an increase in mid level cloudiness Saturday night / Sunday. So as we get to the weekend we won’t hold onto the sunshine quite as much, despite the continued warmth – still though, not bad at all for November! Monday we see a continuation of the well-above-normal temperatures, but the party will be about to end as a cold front starts to move across the region. There won’t be much in the way of any support for any precipitation with this front so just expect some clouds with its passage, allowing the dry spell to extend into early next week. The difference you’ll note by Tuesday though is that we’ve returned to seasonably cool weather courtesy a new area of high pressure from Canada.

TODAY: Sun may become filtered at times by some high cloudiness. Highs 66-73. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, a few gusts to 15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except areas of low clouds and fog especially South Coast. Lows 45-52. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine likely becomes filtered by more high cloudiness. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

High pressure sits over the region during the first couple days of this period with fair weather, chilly mornings and milder afternoons November 9-10. Veterans Day November 11 looks fair for now as high pressure hangs on. Later that day and into the start of the November 12-13 weekend we may see some unsettled weather due to a combo of low pressure / moisture from the south and a disturbance from the west, but this may move quickly enough so that the end of the period sees a return to fair weather again.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 14-18)

Two shots of colder air may occur as we start to see a pattern shift. Precipitation events with air mass changes are expected to be minor.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

A persistent ridge of high pressure will bring fair and very mild weather to our region through the weekend and even to the start of next week as well. Although on Monday we will have a cold front quietly crossing the region, a signal of the end of the warm spell. A couple of record high temperatures may be challenged on Sunday and/or Monday, but for the most part, this will not be a warm stretch that does much damage to the record book.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 42-49. Wind S to SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW up to 10 MPH, a few gusts to 15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

A new area of high pressure brings dry but seasonably cool weather to the region November 8-9 with a slight moderation to follow for November 10-11. By later November 11 onward we have to watch for impact from low pressure to the south and/or a disturbance from the west with a threat of unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 13-17)

The signs remain in place for a change in the weather pattern – this period starting with some unsettled weather then shifting to a cooler / colder but mainly dry episode as the ridge breaks down and moves out and is replaced by a northwesterly air flow and a broad trough in the jet stream. The evolution of this pattern may be a little slower than some guidance indicates so the cool-down may come in stages versus all at once. Fine-tuning to come.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

High pressure will control our weather with dry conditions and above normal temperatures through the weekend. The “coolest” weather will be today and Thursday as we have a bit of a northerly air flow initially having transported some Canadian air in, but this air is already modified and without much wind, so you’re not going to feel the typical chill from it. High pressure’s ridge axis sinks to the south so we see an increasing south to southwest air flow here toward and into the weekend, which will be decidedly more breezy than the 3 days leading up to it. We will probably see more in the way of cloudiness by Sunday as well with more moisture in the atmosphere by then.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear except ground fog patches forming in interior low elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 42-49. Wind S to SW under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 66-73. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

A cold front is expected to move through the region during November 7, bringing only a slight chance of rain showers but a shift in the wind and the arrival of cooler air with high pressure taking control again November 8-9. By later next week, we’ll be watching low pressure to the south of the area, but at this point I’m expecting the high pressure set-up to maintain control with continued dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 12-16)

Continuing to watch for a pattern change during the middle of November. Potential unsettled weather in the November 12-13 window due to either low pressure to the south, a disturbance from the west, or a combination. Mid to late period looks drier but with a shift to near to below normal temperatures at that time.

DAYS 1-5 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

After an October that started cooler than normal then shifted to a mild pattern, and a brilliant foliage season peak for much of the region, we enter November still in a mild pattern with the now ongoing “rustic peak” of foliage. The brilliant reds and oranges are past peak, but many of the trees that are at peak now in our region produce deeper golds and browns, which in my opinion are quite nice to look at as we move into late autumn. The weather in the coming days will be quite nice to be outside looking at such sights, or shifting your focus to cleaning up the leaves that have fallen – I know I gotta do that soon! First though, a little speed bump as we start the month with a disturbance moving through, producing some rain showers this morning. This activity will push out this afternoon though clouds will be somewhat stubborn. It will be mild though. Only a very slight cool down occurs for mid week as high pressure first to our north and west provides a northeasterly air flow briefly before the high settles to the south and we get a southwesterly air flow by later in the week , warming it up quite nicely.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers through midday. Highs 61-68. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind shifting to NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind shifting to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 36-43. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

Fair weather and above normal temperatures continue through November 6 to finish off the first weekend of November. Watching for a cold front to move through with little fanfare, maybe a few rain showers, on November 7, still a mild day, but leading to cooler/dry weather for the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 11-15)

This is the period of time we watch for a potential pattern change. Again, guidance has been inconsistent in details of how this happens, but the general idea right now is that we will start with high pressure holding on for a dry Veterans Day, a potential unsettled November 12-13 weekend as we watch both low pressure to the south and a disturbance from the west, then a shift to cooler/colder air as the trough which had been out to the west moves into the Northeast. Confidence is only moderate at best with this scenario, but this is the idea to work with for now, then adjust as needed. Some guidance has thrown some snow at us in its forecasts for some of these days, but it’s nothing to really lock into yet – just something to monitor as really more an indicator of a shift to colder weather at some point.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

A southerly air flow brings milder air but more cloudiness for this final day of October. For Halloween evening fun, expect dry and mild conditions. It won’t be until after midnight that some scattered rain showers make their way into the area with a low pressure disturbance moving in. This will linger about until around midday Tuesday before pushing off to the east, but the first day of November will also be a mild day. It won’t be until a cold front slides slowly through the region Tuesday night and early Wednesday that we’ll see a wind shift to north and northeast and a modest cool-down with fair weather for midweek. This will be followed by a moderation in temperature late week as the high center that initially will be to our north has settled to the south and east of the area.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers overnight. Patchy fog toward dawn. Lows 48-55. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers through midday. Highs 61-68. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind shifting to NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind shifting to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 36-43. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

High pressure sits south of the region but keeps control of our weather with fair and mild conditions for the November 5-6 weekend. Watching for a cold front to bring the chance of rain showers November 7 followed by fair and cooler weather toward the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 10-14)

Medium range model conflict has arisen with a couple models shifting to a colder pattern quickly while others keep it milder with brief cool shots. Leaning toward the latter at this point but open to shifting mode of thinking. Best chance of precipitation comes around mid period if my current thoughts are on track.

This is the new version of the separate post for discussing the Covid 19 pandemic and related issues. For now, probably until it’s no longer needed (declared end of pandemic or shortly after), I will set up one of these per week to cover the Monday through Sunday time period. Previously, comments on any blog post would automatically close after 3 days. I have adjusted the settings on WordPress to keep them open through 7 days, so you will be able to come back to this post through the week to add comments. Just a reminder to keep your conversations civil even if a strong difference of opinion exists. We can all agree to disagree while still expressing our views. While I don’t allow political discussion on the weather page, I realize a little bit of politics can easily enter the Covid discussion. Just remember to keep that civil as well. Let me know if you have any questions about this new format for the Covid post. I’ll try to check in at least once a day.

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

High pressure sat atop us overnight with clear, calm, chilly conditions. Early mornings like this at this time of year promote frosty grass and patches of fog in low elevations. That’s how the morning starts out, but a quick warm-up today erases all of that and leads to a pleasantly mild afternoon with lots of sun, filtered later in the day by some high clouds. These high clouds are in advance of a weak disturbance which will bring more cloudiness to the region, but not enough moisture for any rainfall on Halloween during the day and evening – so the outlook for this has improved about as much as it can. By late Monday night / early Tuesday morning, a few rain showers and some patches of fog will be about as the disturbances moves in and low level moisture increases on a light southerly wind. These showers may be around at times as we start November on Tuesday, but this is not going to be a widespread rainfall event as the system will be falling apart as it passes and transferring energy to an offshore system. That system will move away and high pressure regains control of the weather by midweek.

TODAY: Sunshine dominates – more high clouds late. Highs 60-67. Wind calm then SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Patchy fog interior lower elevations and also areas of fog possible near the South Coast overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds – intervals of sun. Highs 60-67. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of passing rain showers overnight. Patchy fog late evening and overnight. Lows 47-54. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Highs 61-68. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Fog patches interior lower elevations. Lows 38-45. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 60-67. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

High pressure shifts to the south and east but maintains control of the weather with fair weather and above normal temperatures November 4-6. Cold front passing through brings a rain shower threat during November 7, based on current timing, followed by fair, cooler weather at period’s end.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 9-13)

A fair, cool start, then moderating as high pressure drifts across the region through mid period, then the indications are for a system to approach later in the period with increased rainfall chances – but low confidence on this part of the outlook.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-30-2022

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

High pressure will continue to be the dominant force for the weekend with nice weather – chilly mornings, a cool day today, and a milder day Sunday. Sunshine will dominate both days but give way to more clouds later Sunday as a disturbance approaches. At one time some of the our guidance wanted to turn that approaching system into one to give us a rainy Halloween, but this one is not going to be all that big a deal, and may just deliver a few rain showers, mainly after trick-or-treat time Monday night. After that it departs the region Tuesday and high pressure retakes the weather reins.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog. Frost likely. Lows 30-37. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 54-61. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 57-64. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers late evening and overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52 Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 58-65. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

High pressure is expected to be dominant for much of this period with above normal temperatures, until the end of the period when an approaching front may bring rain showers to the region.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 8-12)

Early and late period cooler shots from Canada with a little more jet stream over the Northeast. Overall pattern looks fairly dry through.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-29-2022

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

An area of high pressure will bring us fair weather through the weekend. The coolest daytime will be today, with a moderating trend this weekend. Nights will be quite chilly through Saturday night, but Sunday night not as much as there will be a lot more cloudiness, acting as a blanket, as well as a milder southerly air flow at that time. This is in advance of a weak disturbance which brings the chance of some rain shower activity Monday. Right now, this system looks rather minor to me and not threatening a Halloween wash-out. There will likely be many hours of rain-free weather and we can fine-tune those details during the course of the weekend. Tuesday, high pressure builds back in with fair weather to start November.

TODAY: Sunshine, filtered at times by some high clouds this morning and possibly briefly interrupted by passing fair weather clouds this afternoon. Highs 52-59. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, especially at the coast.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH, then calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind calm, then E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 30-37. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Highs 57-64. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Patchy fog. Lows 45-52 Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

High pressure is expected to be dominant for much of this period with a brief cool-down, then milder again. The very end of the period may see the approach of a cold front with a rain shower threat.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 7-11)

Early and late period cooler shots from Canada with a little more jet stream over the Northeast. Overall pattern looks fairly dry through.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-28-2022

DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 27-31)

High pressure builds in and controls our weather for the next several days, through the weekend in fact. We start rather mild today with a drying westerly breeze, but as the center of the high bridges to our north tonight and Friday, a wind shift to northeast will bring cooler air into the region. Weekend temperatures will be generally seasonable with nice weather for outdoor activities. By Monday, Halloween, we’ll be on the look-out for some unsettled weather as the high gives way to an approaching trough of low pressure and some increased moisture from the south and southwest. It’s uncertain at this point how much, if any, rainfall will make it into our region before the end of the day or sometime in the evening, but this will be tweaked and fine-tuned over the next few days, as it has an impact on Halloween evening trick-or-treat for cities and towns that do it on that day.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 33-40. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-35. Wind NE up to 10 MPH, then calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind calm, then E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 30-37. Wind E to SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 43-50. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers by late-day. Highs 57-64. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

November starts unsettled with a rain chance, then it dries out rather quickly thereafter and high pressure takes over with fair weather, initially seasonable temperatures then a moderating trend to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 6-10)

This outlook is updated to indicate a stronger high pressure ridge dominating the East Coast with fair weather and above normal temperatures for our region at least for the early to middle portion of the period before we may get a push of cooler air from Canada as the flow flattens out with a little stronger jet stream in the Northeast.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-27-2022

Our unsettled stretch continues. Many areas remain socked in with fog and this will hang around for a good portion of the day with saturated air. Additionally, showers have increased again in the region in response to a broad trough over the region. Some additional moisture gets added to the system today via low pressure moving north northwestward in the offshore waters to our southeast – not a direct hit by the low, but close enough to have influence, before this system heads toward eastern Canada and an upper level trough swings through with a surface cold front early Thursday. This will put an end to the unsettled weather and provide us with a total turn-around into sunshine and mild air for Thursday – the easy pick of the week in terms of “good” weather. A secondary boundary will cross the region that evening and as high pressure bridges north of our region, the wind, which initially blows from the west and northwest, will shift to north and northeast, transporting much cooler air into the region by Friday, but with dry weather. This dry weather will continue through the coming weekend too as high pressure builds right into and over the region.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Rain showers likely through early afternoon, some of which can be heavy, then tapering off from south to north later in the day. Highs 56-63. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. An additional passing rain shower possible this evening and another chance overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine with a few passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: A few clouds may pass through early, otherwise clear. Lows 40-47. Wind NW to N up 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 36-43. Wind NE to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 32-39, may be colder in some interior lower elevations. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

High pressure gives way to another low pressure system as we head into the final hours of October but currently optimistic that while we see clouds arrive for Halloween we don’t see much if any rainfall as dry air holds on. Stronger low pressure push November 1-2 with a period or two of rain. Drier weather returns for November 3-4 as high pressure retakes control. Temperatures should average fairly close to or slightly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 5-9)

Potential unsettled weather to start the period, then high pressure is expected to take over with dry and seasonably cool weather thereafter.