C-19 Chat Post – 10-26-2022

High pressure to the east attempts to nose into our region today and will limit the shower chance compared to yesterday, but sun will also be limited with lots of moisture hanging around. In fact many areas start the day socked in with fog, but that will thin out eventually. So not a great day today, but not a wash-out either. Low pressure offshore will be moving north northwest and will be close enough to bring more widespread showers into the region for a while Wednesday, before heading to Canada. As this does so, it will join with another low moving in from the west into a stronger eastern Canada storm system. A cold front trailing from the eastward-moving low will cross our region, returning fair weather to the region for late week. It will be mildest Thursday before a secondary boundary comes through in the evening and delivers cooler air for Friday and Saturday, but with nice dry weather as high pressure takes over, centered north of this area.

TODAY: Foggy start for many areas, otherwise mostly cloudy with a few sun breaks possible. Chance of a rain shower. Highs 58-65. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers, especially overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Highs 56-63. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

High pressure is expected to bring fair weather and generally seasonable air to the region for the last 2 days of October before the weather turns unsettled with the arrival of a low pressure trough to start off November.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 4-8)

Potential unsettled weather to start the period, then high pressure is expected to take over with dry and seasonably cool weather thereafter.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-25-2022

A battle between low pressure and high pressure will be won by low pressure into midweek, as a trough impacts the region with occasional wet weather through Wednesday, with the highest chance of showers in any given location today and Wednesday. This will be as 2 different lows are closest to or over the region. Tuesday brings a reduced chance as a little nosing in of high pressure from the east takes place, but still not a “great” weather day. Thursday, a cold front pushes everything off to the east, and we improve, but the mild air will still be in place and it won’t be until a secondary front crosses the region that cooler air will arrive for the end of the week.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle.Occasional to numerous showers, especially this afternoon including isolated thunderstorms. Highs 56-63. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Showers likely in the evening including the chance of thunder. Lows 48-55. Wind N-NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a shower. Highs 58-65. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers, especially overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Highs 56-63. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 65-72. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-47. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 52-59. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

High pressure is expected to bring fair weather and generally seasonable air to the region for the last 3 days of October before the weather turns unsettled with the arrival of a low pressure trough to start off November.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 3-7)

A little uncertainty in this period. For now going with a drier overall pattern but another interval of unsettled weather may take place somewhere mid to late period with another trough / disturbance combo near the East Coast.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-24-2022

A brief update for the Sunday blog post. Not many adjustments to the previous forecast discussion. Saturday’s splendid autumn weather has given way to a less-nice Sunday with lots of clouds, and eventually some rain moving into the region. In fact it’s already around the islands and parts of Cape Cod and the rain shield will push more to the north and northwest with time, while battling some dry air in place. By evening and tonight, most areas will have seen some rainfall and this occasional wet weather will continue through Monday in response to a low pressure area making a visit from the south. This system moves off to the northeast and weakens Tuesday but we’re left with a trough in the vicinity into midweek and additional shower chances at times, until a cold front pushes it all off to the east on Thursday.

TODAY: Clouds thicken. Rain at times South Coast to MA South Shore mid morning on. Patches of light rain push through Boston area west and north later in the day but much of day dry in these areas. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Foggy areas – possibly dense. Highs 55-62. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Fog. Overcast. Drizzle possible. Chance of a shower. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds. Foggy areas early. Chance of a shower. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers, especially overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers. Areas of fog. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 48-55. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers early, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 57-64. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 28 – NOVEMBER 1)

Have to watch offshore storm early in the period, otherwise high pressure should be in general control with dry weather to finish off October, cool to start then moderating. November may start with unsettled weather arriving.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 2-6)

A trough of low pressure brings unsettled weather to the region, especially for the first part of the period, before trending back to fair weather.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-23-2022

As we enter the 4th weekend of October, we continue that trend of nice weekend weather, but this time not quite making it all the way through. Today, governed by high pressure to the southeast, is going to be sun-filled and fairly mild, after a cool start. Clouds move in tonight and early Sunday ahead of a low pressure area advancing up from the south, but this system is not going to make a direct impact as a formidable system, but is rather more in the shape of an inverted low pressure trough forming into a weak low. It will toss a rain shield this way which has to battle dry air in place, so this system probably looks worse on model guidance than it will on radar and in reality. That said, the rain chance does increase during the morning on Sunday from the South Coast to the MA South Shore, but this swath of rain will struggle to move northward as the day goes on, probably doing so in drying-up patches that only send some very light rain to the surface. So all in all a good portion of the region gets through Sunday without much if any rainfall. Finally Sunday night into Monday the atmosphere moistens up enough to support more rainfall further west and north, but by then this initial batch of moisture will be peeling off to the east via the upper winds. We’ll stay in the unsettled weather as the lower atmosphere does saturate through Monday with some periods of rain and drizzle under an overcast. And the unsettled pattern is going to try to hang on into the middle of coming week as well as a trough will be nearby and we’ll have to watch for another low pressure area drifting northward this way by Wednesday, which has a higher chance of becoming at least an occasionally wet day here.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: High clouds move in. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouds thicken. Rain at times South Coast to MA South Shore mid morning on. Patches of light rain push through Boston area west and north later in the day but much of day dry in these areas. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Foggy areas – possibly dense. Highs 55-62. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Fog. Overcast. Drizzle possible. Chance of a shower. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds. Foggy areas early. Chance of a shower. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of rain, especially overnight. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 27-31)

Rain shower chance very early in the period as a frontal boundary moves through, then it looks like high pressure takes over with mainly dry weather, a cool shot then a moderating trend for the final days of October.

DAYS 11-15 (NOVEMBER 1-5)

Low pressure trough moves in with a turn to unsettled weather for the early days of November – timing and detail to be worked out.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-22-2022

High pressure hangs on through Saturday with fair weather, cool mornings and milder afternoons – quite nice for this time of year. While this weekend will not be excellent from start to finish like the previous couple, there are some parts of the forecast area that will squeak in a dry Sunday despite a thickening overcast and rain moving into some areas. Still feeling that the rain shield from a northward-advancing low pressure area reaches the South Coast and South Shore of MA initially during the afternoon on Sunday, but areas to the west and north stay rain-free until end-of-day or evening. This wet weather will be with us through Monday, though a lot of the rainfall may peel off to the east of the region with just lighter rainfall and areas of drizzle and fog here. We’ll also have to watch for the development of fairly dense fog as Monday rolls along with the arrival of higher humidity, making the temperature / dew point match in much of the region. The wind field may be weak enough that fog can easily form and persist. Wondering if this may have an impact on the MNF game in Foxboro more than any chance of rainfall. We’ll have to see how that evolves. Regardless, Tuesday presents slight improvement but still lots of clouds around with the possibility of a few showers as the disturbance sits nearby while weakening.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouding over. Rain possible mainly South Coast to I-90 belt. Chance of rain further north later in the day. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Foggy areas – possibly dense. Highs 55-62. Wind E to variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Fog. Overcast. Drizzle possible. Chance of a shower. Lows 48-55. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds. Foggy areas early. Chance of a shower. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 26-30)

Unsettled weather for the first couple days of this period with the old disturbance sitting nearby and a frontal system sweeping through from west to east. Lower confidence thereafter but hints of high pressure trying to regain control of the weather with fair weather, and initial cool shot then moderation.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 31 – NOVEMBER 4)

Low confidence outlook. Leaning toward dry weather to end the month of October and then some unsettled weather returning in the early days of November with a slower moving pattern and a trough returning to the northeastern US.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-21-2022

High pressure will continue to keep control of our weather through Saturday with fair weather and a continued moderating temperature trend. An inverted trough of low pressure to the south New England will poke its nose into our business before the weekend is over, though, ending our run of nice weather. While some guidance is barging the rain in here by early Sunday, my current feeling is that while the clouds will overtake the region hastily, we may not see much in the way of rainfall that early unless you are south of Boston, which may be wet as early as the morning or midday with an initial burst of moisture. Areas to the west and north may not see it until the end of the day or evening hours. This detail will need fine-tuning. For now, just expect the weather to go downhill for the second half of the weekend in terms of at least cooler air with an easterly air flow, and lots of clouds, and wet weather arriving sooner or later. The unsettled weather continues into Monday with the inverted trough still bringing an onshore flow and periods of rain and drizzle to the region.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 36-43. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Clouding over. Rain possible mainly South Coast to I-90 belt. Chance of rain further north later in the day. Highs 55-62. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 46-53. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and drizzle. Areas of fog. Highs 53-58. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 25-29)

The weather may remain somewhat unsettled early in the period as the trough over the region weakens but hangs in place, waiting to be swept offshore by a cold front from the west sometime in the October 26-27 window. So the possibility of rain showers will be around during this time. Brief drying follows, but another low pressure system may bring additional rainfall to the region by the end of the period. This is a different outlook than what it appeared to be previously, and is not a high confidence forecast at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 30 – NOVEMBER 3)

Very low confidence outlook. Leaning toward dry, cool weather to end the month, and another bout of unsettled weather from a low pressure system in the first days of November.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-20-2022

High pressure provides fair weather with a moderating temperature trend into the weekend, as the high center settles to the south and east of New England. During Sunday we’re going to see a wind shift to northeast and an increase in clouds from south to north (and maybe some lower ocean clouds near the coast) as low pressure approaches from the south.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45.Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 57-64. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 36-43. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 40-47. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-50. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind variable to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 24-28)

Low pressure brings a good chance of rain October 24 then decays and lifts through the region with additional rain showers possible on October 25. A frontal boundary from the west may bring a rain shower at some point in the October 26-27 window otherwise the trend is back to fair and mild weather for the waning days of the month as the mean trough stays to the west and high pressure off the US East Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 29 – NOVEMBER 2)

The large scale pattern doesn’t change all that much but may start to get a little more amplified, so we’ll have to watch for a more important storm system to start taking shape somewhere in the eastern US and our weather as a result will depend on where it is in proximity to this location. Right now I see an opportunity for one or two spokes of moisture to reach the region with rain chances but no full-fledged storm arrival. Something to watch the evolution of in the days ahead.

C-19 Chat Post – 10-19-2022