C-19 Chat Post – 9-26-2022

A warm front approaching today will fill the sky with far more clouds than we saw yesterday, when you had to look really hard to find one. We’ve lost some of our wind, and we will definitely be a bit milder today as well. As for the front itself, it’s approach and passage may help trigger a couple patches of light rain mainly well west and north of Boston later today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms can develop before the end of the day mainly south of I-90, but this is a very low chance. There is a slightly better chance of these occurring, although still rather isolated, during tonight. And while this is not going to end up as some “outbreak”, a couple storms that can form have the ability to become strong, so keep an eye out for that. Monday and Tuesday a trough of low pressure will be to our west, and we’ll be in a southwesterly air flow of mild air. The only shot of rainfall is from a possible passing shower west to east across the region late in the day Monday. This trough will push further east and move to a position east of our region by midweek when we remain dry, but with a cool-down.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix, clouds eventually winning out. A patch of light rain may visit some areas well west and north of Boston by later in the day and an isolated shower or thunderstorm may develop south of I-90 as well. Highs 67-74. Wind W to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy including periods of sun. A passing shower is possible late in the day mainly west of the I-95 belt. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A passing shower possible early in the I-95 belt eastward. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 68-75. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 66-73. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 64-71. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

Dry and seasonably cool weather expected for the final day of September with high pressure in control. The remainder of the forecast hinges largely on what happens with TS / Hurricane Ian in the Gulf of Mexico and after a landfall. The scenario I lean toward right now is for high pressure to hang on with dry weather and seasonable to milder temperatures for the October 1-2 weekend, the remains of Ian staying to our southwest and south October 3-4 while the jet stream brings a system in from the west with finally a chance of wet weather by the end of the period. This is very low confidence. Please check back for updates on this.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 5-9)

Not a high confidence forecast again based on the uncertainty that precedes it, but leaning toward a dry pattern and variable temperatures including another shot or 2 of very cool air from Canada, which seem to want to visit early this autumn.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-25-2022

Our weather for the first weekend of autumn will be rather nice overall, but we’ll start it with a little bit of wind chill. While the wind did drop off a bit in some areas overnight, the breeze remained in most, and the rising sun is quickly mixing the air so the gusty breeze is occurring in all areas by mid morning, and coming off low temperature in the 40s, we have wind chills down in the 30s. We’d laugh at this in winter, but when you’re under 48 hours after the end of summer, you’re not quite used to this kind of thing yet. I needed a winter hat late last night for a visit to the sea wall for high tide. First time I have used a winter hat in September that I can recall. Our gusty and cool weather will continue today but under lots of bright sun, so if you have outdoor activities sensitive to wind gusts (yard sale, etc.), keep this in mind! A warm front approaching Sunday will send more clouds in, but despite some guidance indicating rainfall before the end of the day, I am not convinced this happens. There will be a lot of dry air in the atmosphere in the wake of the very large Fiona, now a post-tropical powerhouse moving through southeastern Canada. And while that storm did not directly impact our region, the expanse of dry air around / behind it, is quite large. It will take some time to scour this out, but this upcoming system does have some pretty unstable air with it and it will eventually do so, so that clouds do win out by sometime Sunday night, along with scattered showers and even some thunderstorms in the overnight / early morning hours of Monday. A few of these storms may even be rather potent for this time of year. But despite the instability, the broad trough and low pressure area coming in to start off the week is going to pull in a lot of dry air as well, and despite Monday being an unsettled day with the opportunity for showers, there should also be some sunshine. I was a little more pessimistic feeling about the weather going into Tuesday previously, but today I’m a little less so. While still having a trough nearby, it looks like a main frontal boundary will lie to our south, and another trough to our north and while this is a thread-the-needle forecast for day 4 I feel we have the chance to be in between unsettled areas with dry weather here Tuesday, and a weakened version of the same for Wednesday, with dry weather, just a sun/cloud mix. Confidence is not super-high on those 2 days so don’t lock anything in yet.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind W to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy including periods of sun. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 68-75. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 67-74. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Previously I mentioned a shot of chilly air for the final days of September. I still think we get the cooler air, but because of the orientation of the pattern, the delivery doesn’t blast in here, but rather eases in, so that we get fair weather and cooler air for the last couple days of the month as high pressure builds in from Canada. And then October arrives with uncertainty in the outlook. We’ll be watching Ian, a newly formed tropical storm in the southern Caribbean, which we are pretty sure will become a hurricane and turn to the north impacting western Cuba and threatening an area from the central Gulf of Mexico to the US Southeast, with Florida about mid point in that area. Until we can nail down the track, we won’t really be able to say with any confidence what, if any, its future impact would be on our area. Today’s medium range guidance shows anything from remnant rains from a system that travelled long over land before reaching the Northeast to a stronger version of the storm having crossed Florida and come at least part way up the East Coast. Either of this is possible, but they are not the only possibilities. We could, for example, have a scenario where the remains of the system never get here, turning east and being pushed out to sea but a Canadian high. So there is now “Ian is going to….” with regard to New England impacts down the road. Just know that in the first few days of October we may potentially hear from some form of it – or we may not. Obviously, this part of the forecast will be adjusted accordingly with time.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 4-8)

If you have a high degree of uncertainty in the period preceding days 11-15, you are not going to have a whole lot more confidence on the 11-15 day period itself, because a lot of what happens hinges on what happens before. What I can say is that we leave the first part of this period open to influences from some form of Ian’s remains, in a slower-moving scenario. I do think the pattern will support one and possibly 2 shots of chilly air from Canada as well. How it all fits together remains to be seen. Stay tuned…

C-19 Chat Post – 9-24-2022

First, Fiona. I mention this storm before getting to our sensible weather because firstly, its impact on our region in the form of high swells and rough surf will peak today, tonight, and early Saturday, so anybody with plans to be at the shore or in the coastal waters should take note of this. Also, Fiona remains a powerful hurricane, and while it will be weakening gradually and making its transition to post-tropical while motoring toward southeastern Canada, it’s going to strike that region as a very powerful storm. In fact, the transition to post-tropical only helps the wind field expand, even if the overall intensity is coming down. It’s starting at such a high intensity with not much time to go before arriving there, that it will only weaken so much, down to that of about a category 3 hurricane. While Fiona will not be a tremendous rain producer due to its rapid movement, it will be a wind machine and still produce considerable coastal storm surge. Eastern Nova Scotia, P.E.I., and western Newfoundland will be most impacted. Later in the storm’s life, it may produce some snow further north! Back here at home we’re now into our coolest air mass in quite a while, and obviously the coolest air mass of meteorological fall and definitely astronomical fall, which just started hours ago (last evening). Both today and Saturday will feature sun but a share of passing clouds too, especially today, below normal temperatures, and a gusty wind, though the wind should settle down a little bit tonight as the air becomes less mixed and may not be as gusty Saturday as it ends up today. The Canadian high pressure area delivering this air to us will sink to the south and allow us to warm up a little bit Sunday after a chilly start. While I still expect Sunday to be largely rain-free, I do expect clouds to become dominant before the day is over in advance of an approaching trough of low pressure, which will bring us unsettled weather early next week – though not looking like a significant rain producer at this time.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts to near and even over 30 MPH at times.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 44-51. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 67-74. Wind W to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 52-59. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 62-69. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

At the moment I am keeping my outlook of mainly dry weather, a shot of chilly air to start, followed by a moderating trend in temperature later in the period. Wildcard: What goes on in the tropics and how it translates to any possible direct or indirect impact as early as the first days of October. It’s first important to note that medium range guidance is to be taken only as a rough idea, especially when there is no actual low center to initialize on the guidance, and for our newly formed tropical depression in the southern Caribbean, this is just going to start to be the case as of today. Previous runs, including the last set with no low to initialize, still show considerable spread in solutions regarding the eventual hurricane’s impact on the US. These variations can still be present as well after a low forms, but you have a better chance of a better-performing model having a better solution for the system in question. Applying meteorology might then help you decide which piece(s) if guidance show a more realistic possible outcome. So one step forward today with a low center, but still take the guidance lightly if scrutinizing each run. Watch for trends rather than scrutinizing details beyond a few forecast panels.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 3-7)

High degree of uncertainty again for this forecast period given the unknown outcome of a tropical cyclone that itself, or the remains of, may eventually impact our region. Whatever happens, we may see quite a shot of chilly air again behind any departing system as the overall pattern may very well favor this again. Long way to go to refine and detail this outlook…

C-19 Chat Post – 9-23-2022

The final hours of summer roll by appropriately with higher humidity and showers with a chance of thunderstorms today as a cold front approaches and moves into the region. This front is not moving all that quickly so the shower threat will last well into afternoon, especially for eastern and southeastern areas, where I’m expecting the heaviest rain amounts – greatest chance of over 1 inch being south of Boston (RI and southeastern MA). The front pushes through by evening and just in time for the autumnal equinox (9:04 p.m.) in comes the coolest air mass we have experienced since last spring, along with a gusty wind, especially during Friday, although breezy conditions continue into Saturday despite a little temperature recovery after a chilly start to the day. It’ll turn milder still on Sunday as the Canadian high pressure area that brings us the beginning-of-autumn chill slides off to the south and we get the return flow on the other side of it. So all in all it will be quite a nice first weekend of autumn for us. Reminder that larger ocean swells associated with Hurricane Fiona are already impacting the South Coast and will expand to include more of the region through Friday and the start of the weekend as the storm passes just west of Bermuda then accelerates toward the Canadian Maritimes, where they will see a powerful storm as it becomes extratropical and hits them. Rough surf generated by the passing storm in addition to the long period swells will impact our coast especially Friday into Saturday before easing. Monday’s weather looks a bit unsettled here as a trough arrives from the west.

TODAY: Mainly cloudy until late day with episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms, some producing heavy rainfall, tapering off west northwest to east southeast late in the day but probably lasting into evening Cape Cod. Sun may appear especially west and north of Boston for a nice sunset there. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late in the day from west to east across the area.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 10-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 44-51. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind W to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 62-69. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

Unsettled weather early in the period as a trough passes by followed by a shot of chilly and dry air, then continued dry with moderating temperatures toward the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 2-6)

We’ll watch during this period for at least remnant moisture from a tropical system to the south which has a long way to go before it ever has a chance to impact us, giving plenty of time in this area to watch what effects, if any, it may have. Otherwise the period likely starts and ends dry and mild, pending the timing of the aforementioned system or remnants of it.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-22-2022

There is a lot of weather to talk about as we wrap up astronomical summer and enter autumn. The autumnal equinox will occur at 9:04 p.m. Thursday, marking the official change of seasons. First, we have leftover low level moisture behind yesterday’s departing low pressure system. We haven’t had a strong advection of drier air into the region behind this system, so the clearing has not been quick to occur. The drizzle is gone though, and the clouds are breaking in some areas as of sunrise, and while many areas start with a grey sky, we’ll end up with intervals of clouds and sun – sun becoming more dominant – as the day goes on, and really a nice final full day of summer. Appropriately, the day we transition from summer to autumn will also be a transition day for our weather. A strong cold front will be moving across the region. I once thought this system would whistle through from northwest to southeast during the early morning hours, but Hurricane Fiona (we’ll get to her shortly) has had enough impact on the pattern already, just enough, to slow the front down by a handful of hours. This means that a lot of the shower activity will take place from Thursday morning to mid afternoon with a slightly slower-moving frontal boundary. But it will push through, and almost as if somebody planned it, we’ll know that a new air mass has arrived – cool air on a gusty northwest wind – as we get to evening and fall officially begins with the occurrence of the equinox. Friday through Sunday will be dry days for us here in the WHW forecast area, with an October-like day for the first full day of autumn on Friday – very dry air, a gusty breeze, and some locations that struggle to make 60. The cool breeze will continue Friday night into Saturday, and that combined with the very dry air will be the reasons that some interior portions of southern New England don’t see their first frost of the season as the temperature probably won’t be able to drop low enough due to wind-mixed air. Anyway the air might just simply be too dry for dew or frost to form. Regardless, if you’re an early riser, get ready for a chilly Saturday morning, even with a bit of “wind chill” in areas that keep the breeze going. We will see a nice temperature recovery back to the 60s that day with sun. Sunday will further warm up, back to 70+ territory for much of the region, although our sun may become filtered to limited in advance of an approaching warm front by later in the day, although it does look rain-free. So our first weekend of autumn does indeed look like quite a nice one. However, if you have plans taking you to the coastline then, even before then (South Coast already today and tomorrow, all areas Friday-Sunday), watch for rough surf and large ocean swells stirred up by Hurricane Fiona. The storm itself, now a major hurricane moving into open waters northeast of the Bahamas, will be taking a track fairly close to by west of Bermuda late Thursday / early Friday. I do believe it will be far enough west to spare that island the worst of the storm, but they will still get a gusty rain event. This is kind of a best-case scenario for Bermuda and the US East Coast for a storm this far west and this strong – moving between the two with minimal and manageable impact. This may not be the case for southeastern Canada, a large portion of which will be whacked by the post-tropical but still-powerful storm with lots of wind, rain, and even some snow over interior areas where it will be just cold enough, while we’re enjoying our nice weekend. Oh how the weather can be vastly different over not-too-great a distance.

TODAY: Clouds break for intervals of clouds and sun – more sun with time. Highs 69-76. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to SW by late in the day.

TONIGHT: Clouds return west to east. Scattered showers arrive west to east overnight but may favor areas north of I-90, especially southern NH. Lows 59-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts especially South Coast.

THURSDAY: Mainly cloudy through mid afternoon with scattered showers early, then numerous to widespread showers and possible embedded thunderstorms, which will then end from west to east by later in the day. Breaking clouds and intervals of sunshine from west to east by late day. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts by late in the day from west to east across the area.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 44-51. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog may form in interior low elevations. Lows 45-52, slightly cooler some interior lower elevations. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

More weather changes as we head through the final 5 days of September… Low pressure trough and frontal system moves through September 26 to early September 27 with a shower threat – more details to come later. Generally fair weather and another shot of cool air to follow this system as Canadian high pressure moves in, then a little warmer weather be the end of the period as high pressure shifts to the east of the region.

DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 1-5)

There is a fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast for the early days of October. A tropical wave approaching the southern windward islands, typical for this time of year, is getting more organized and has a good chance of becoming the next tropical storm (eventually possible / probable hurricane). I don’t often mention names too far in advance because of uncertainty, but we already have TS Gaston in the open Atlantic, and with no other systems of concern at the moment the disturbance heading for the Caribbean would likely end up with the name Hermine, so let’s assume for a moment that this is what happens. Again, noting that model guidance for tropical systems is to be taken with grains of salt due to their limited performance ability with such systems, the medium range models are in agreement at this time that this new system would move through the Caribbean and be in a much better position to impact at least the southeastern US (not sure where yet – too soon to know) eventually. After that the guidance takes the remains (or weakened version of the system) at least part way up the US East Coast as a significant rain system. Again it’s too soon to sound like I’m grabbing onto any details – we’re really just talking models at this point. But at this time of year you monitor. In our case, we monitor for any typical issues a storm like that might bring, but also monitor somewhat in hopes that moisture from a system like this could help us majorly reduce our still-ongoing drought. So as you can see there is a lot to consider in the medium range, and while we never should jump to conclusions we must be aware of all of the possibilities. These will be kept track of as always, and refined and fine-tuned as we get closer to this period of time. For now, I’d lean toward dry weather to start October, a milder spell, and then the chance of rain at some point, pending future movement of that tropical system and any mid latitude disturbance that may approach the region too.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-21-2022

Wrap-around moisture behind departing low pressure gives us an unsettled day today, and the cloud cover will keep us on the cool side as well. Improvement arrives late tonight and leads to a nicer day Wednesday as a narrow ridge of high pressure moves across the region. But look out! Here comes a strong cold front Thursday morning, accompanied by showers and possible thunderstorms. This will pass by and then dry weather returns, but this time with the bluster and cool-down of autumn later Thursday, just in time for the autumnal equinox Thursday evening. Friday and Saturday will feature fair weather and below normal temperatures as Canadian air is delivered on the eastern side of high pressure. Something further away will be impacting our region late this week, and that is Hurricane Fiona, which is forecast to track west of Bermuda late Thursday and then accelerate northeastward in the waters well east of New England Friday before heading into southeastern Canada Saturday. Large swells and rough surf will result, impacting any coastal plans.

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon, a few of which can be briefly heavy. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely evening. Areas of fog redevelop. Lows 51-58. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouds give way to sun. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds return from west to east. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight / pre-dawn, favoring areas north of I-90. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms through midday, ending from northwest to southeast, then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 67-74 but falling temperatures later in the day. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 44-51. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

High pressure to the west of the region shifts to the south of the region with a bit warmer air arriving September 25, but we may also see the advance of clouds before the end of that day with a warm front approaching the region. This will be ahead of the next trough and low pressure system which is expected to bring a round of showery weather on September 26. Unsettled may linger to September 27 as well but the trend will be for a return to cool/dry weather middle to later next week.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 30 – OCTOBER 4)

For now expecting high pressure to be the dominant force with fair weather and moderating temperatures, but we may need to watch for unsettled weather arriving later in the period, possibly in the form of remnant tropical moisture. A lot of uncertainty in this part of the outlook.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-20-2022

A back-door cold front has moved into the region and has put most of the WHW forecast area on the cooler side of the boundary, but this front is now slowing down, and will eventually come to a stop, or just waver around a little bit, stretching from the MA South Coast across southwestern or central RI and east central CT up into even south central MA for a while before it slips a bit south of there. This sets up a fairly sharp temperature contrast across the boundary, with a large area of daytime temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s, there will be a narrow area to the south of the front that will break 70, and while there is a general low overcast on the cool side of the boundary, to the south there are breaks of sun, at least for a while, which can help boost temperatures even toward 80 in a few areas. During this time, a trough of low pressure will be moving in from the west, tossing plenty of cloudiness over the top of what’s occurring below, so eventually the entire region is overcast by a bit later. Other than a few pockets of light drizzle on the maritime side of the front, we’ll go through many hours of the day rain-free, until a batch of showers and possible embedded thunderstorms arrives from the west toward and into evening. I’m not expecting any severe storms, but some downpours are possible. This activity will push out of the area overnight. Tuesday, as a surface low pressure area cuts across central Maine then heads into southeastern Canada, we’ll get its wrap-around moisture in the form of abundant cloud cover and scattered showers, so look for another unsettled day that I had previously been more optimistic about. However, any rain drops we can get from this system will further help us in reducing the still ongoing drought. Finally, a ridge of high pressure will poke its way into New England and provides us with our pick of the week on Wednesday, a dry and mild day for the final full day of astronomical summer. On its heels comes a strong cold front which will sweep across the region during the morning hours Thursday, ushering in a cool Canadian air mass, the front accompanied by a band of showers and possible embedded thunderstorms, mostly in the pre-dawn hours, but may linger a bit into the daylight portion of morning for southern and eastern areas. The balance of Thursday will feature a gusty wind and a sun/cloud mix as the cooler, dry air rushes into the region. The autumnal equinox occurs that evening, so the arrival of the fall air mass will lead it by a number of hours – but generally right on cue. We’ll be in a northwesterly air flow of cool and dry air Friday with fair weather for the first full day of autumn.

TODAY: Breaks of sun MA South Coast to south central MA, RI, eastern CT, eventually clouding over there. Overcast elsewhere. Pockets of light drizzle possible especially eastern coastal areas. Showers arrive west to east later. Highs 58-65, coolest eastern shores, except a narrow band of 65-72 near frontal boundary and 73-80 to the south of it over southeastern CT, southwestern RI, and possibly the MA South Coast. Wind NE up to 10 MPH except S to SW 5-15 MPH on the warm side of the front.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely, especially evening, including possible thunderstorms. Lows 56-63. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers, especially late morning on. Areas of fog early. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing but areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH early, diminishing to calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase from west to east. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight / pre-dawn. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms NH Seacoast, eastern MA, and RI, early to mid morning. Otherwise, sun/cloud mix. Highs 67-74 early, then cooler. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 58-65, coolest in higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

High pressure to the west of the region shifts to the south of the region during the course of the first full weekend of autumn September 24-25. Saturday’s a day with a chilly start, seasonably cool afternoon, and NW wind. Sunday’s a day with a cool start, mild afternoon, and W to SW breeze, but lighter than Saturday, but overall a great weekend for outdoor activity. Caution for any coastal plans (beach, fishing, boating): Rough surf and large ocean swells will occur due to the far offshore passage of Hurricane Fiona, but our weather pattern will keep this system from a more direct impact. Next trough and frontal system expected to bring unsettled weather to the region September 26, maybe into the next day, followed by another shot of cool/dry air with breezy conditions at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 29 – OCTOBER 3)

Expecting high pressure to dominate with mostly dry weather, below normal temperatures to wrap up September and a milder trend to start October.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-19-2022