The feel of summertime is back today as high pressure sits to our south. We’ll have sunshine but it will be filtered by high altitude smoke, giving a hazy look to the sky, in addition to some patches of high and mid level clouds, but the filtered sun will shine most of the day as temperatures shoot into the 80s in many places (70s South Coast) and dew points climb fairly quickly to the 60s as opposed to yesterday’s dry 40s – so you’ll feel it. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may appear in southern NH and possibly far northern MA this evening as a back-door cold front slides down from the north northeast. This front will move across the region overnight and come to a halt somewhere in the southwestern portion of the WHW forecast area, maybe not making it through southwestern RI and southeastern CT, setting up a potential large temperature contrast for Monday, ranging from the 60s to the lower 80s from northeast to southwest across the region. In addition, a disturbance from the west will be moving in with showers and thunderstorms developing and pushing into the region during the day, but most especially during the afternoon and evening hours. This system will be departing on Tuesday but enough instability will remain for the potential for pop up showers, so those have to be in the forecast as a possibility. High pressure will bring fair and mild weather on Wednesday before it shifts off to the southeast and a strong cold front moves through on Thursday, preceded by showers and possible thunderstorms, then ushering in the coolest air we’ve seen in quite a while just in time for the arrival of autumn (equinox occurs Thursday evening).

TODAY: Hazy (smoke-filtered) sunshine. Highs 80-87 but 70s South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across southern NH and possibly northeastern MA. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers and areas of fog, especially afternoon. Thunderstorms also possible, especially CT, RI, and interior MA. Highs 66-73 southern NH, eastern and central MA, and northeastern RI/CT, 74-81 southwestern RI and southeastern CT. Wind NE 5-15 MPH. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, mostly from the NE in the cooler areas, and S to SW in the warm zones.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely, especially evening, including possible thunderstorms favoring eastern areas of MA, southeastern NH, and RI. Lows 56-63. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds break for sun at times but isolated to scattered showers are possible. Areas of fog early. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing but areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 50-57. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase from west to east. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm overnight / pre-dawn. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms morning. Sun/cloudy mix midday-afternoon. Highs 67-74 early, then cooler. Wind SW shifting to NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Breezy/cool/dry weather September 23-24 with a large area of Canadian high pressure approaching and moving in via the Great Lakes. Milder September 25 as the high shifts to the east but may turn unsettled before the end of the weekend due to an approaching warm front from a system that will bring a cold front along and a shower threat through September 26. This should be followed by another shot of cool/breezy weather for the end of the period in a progressive pattern. Forecast Hurricane Fiona will likely remain out at sea well off the US East Coast but create rough surf.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 28 – OCTOBER 2)

Indications are for high pressure to dominate with a dry stretch of weather to end September and start October, with cooler than normal temperatures early in the period followed by a moderating trend.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-18-2022

High pressure maintains control of the weather this weekend, which will have two distinctive personalities to its weather. Today is a dry day – dew point in the 40s, with a chilly early morning and a pleasantly mild afternoon, light wind, and bright sun mixed with patchy passing clouds as the center of high pressure moves from overhead to just south of the area. Sunday is going to bring the feel of summer back, humidity spiking with dew point rising to the 60s, a gusty southwesterly breeze with high pressure to the south, and plenty of sun but a hazier look to the sky due to another plume of high altitude smoke from western US wildfires. A cold front approaching from the north later Sunday may trigger enough instability so that we see an isolated shower or thunderstorm by evening across southern NH and a remote chance that one of these could wander into northeastern MA as well. As the front presses closer then passes through the region, a round of scattered showers should accompany it during the nighttime hours. Moisture arriving from the west as this front settles just south of the region will help to bring rounds of showers and much cooler weather for Monday, into Monday night as well. High pressure from the north is expected to push the unsettled weather to the south with improving conditions Tuesday, and then as the pattern progresses, the high will move over then south of the region with fair, mild weather for Wednesday.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 70-77, coolest eastern shores. Wind W up to 10 MPH with developing coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clearing. High altitude smoke arriving. Patchy ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Hazy (smoke-filtered) sunshine. Highs 80-87 but 70s South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts especially South Coast.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across southern NH and possibly northeastern MA. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of showers and areas of fog, especially afternoon. Highs 65-72. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely, especially evening. Lows 56-63. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds break for sun. Areas of fog early. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing but areas of ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 50-57. Wind calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and a few clouds. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

There are changes and lots to keep track of during this period of time. First, a quick push of warm and humid air will be thwarted by a strong cold front sweeping across the region on the day of the autumnal equinox (Sep 22), and this front can bring a round of showers and possible thunderstorms, and definitely a gusty, shifting wind (timing of front to be determined). Coolest air in a while arrives behind front for September 23 and 24 as we have a gusty breeze on 9-23 then less wind the day following. High pressure shifts over then south of the region with a warm-up for the last couple days of this period, and eventually the possibility of showers as another front approaches. At the same time, we’ll be watching for Fiona somewhere off the US East Coast (likely quite far out to sea but close enough for impact via rough surf). Fiona, while battling adverse conditions currently, will be well beyond that and should be of hurricane strength when it makes its closest pass to our area, but kept offshore by that push of Canadian air.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 27 – OCTOBER 1)

The trends continue to be for another strong push of cool air from Canada arriving early in the period that may last several days with mainly dry weather conditions as well.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-17-2022

Today, I will try to bring the details of the upcoming weather changes into better focus than on the previous update. To start off, if you were up at sunrise today in the WHW forecast area you may have noticed “that hazy look” to the sky and the filtered nature of the rising sun. That, once again, is a plume of high altitude smoke that has made its way across the country from western wildfires. This smoke area will be in and out of our region over the coming days. Today it will give the sky the hazy look, especially early, before it starts to push off to the southeast and thin out, staying mostly to the south Saturday before coming back to the north Sunday and giving the sky a hazy appearance once again. We’ll see patches of high and mid level clouds in the sky at times on a northwesterly air flow today but most of these will be to the north. We’re still under the influence of Canadian high pressure with seasonable air, cool both this morning and Saturday morning with a modest warm-up this afternoon and a more noticeable one Saturday afternoon as the high center sinks to our south. With high pressure off to the south on Sunday we’ll get a push of warm and more humid air along with the hazier look to the sky from the smoke, giving it the feel of mid summer despite the lowering sun angle. In fact, we’re going to see about 20 degrees rise in dew point over the weekend as we go from the crisp 40s Saturday to the muggy 60s during Sunday. We’ll be keeping an eye on a frontal boundary to the north which will get a push southward, thanks to another area of high pressure in eastern Canada. I still think this boundary will stay far enough north to keep us warm through the daylight hours of Sunday. The boundary should then slip to the south during Sunday night and Monday while a disturbance arrives from the west at the same time. This will combine to bring a cool down and unsettled weather in the form of occasional rain Monday, especially in the afternoon and evening. The current timing indicates that drier air from the north and west will push this system out of the region on Tuesday, with improving weather at that time.

TODAY: Sun competes with patchy high and middle clouds mostly north, and high-altitude smoke all areas, especially morning through midday. Both clouds and smoke decrease with brighter sun for most of the afternoon. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

TONIGHT: Clear except patches of ground fog can form in lower elevations. Lows 45-52, coolest in valleys, swamps, and bogs. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog re-forming in some lower elevations. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, mainly across southern NH and possibly northeastern MA. Lows 58-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to N.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and areas of fog, especially afternoon. Highs 65-72. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of rain, especially evening. Lows 56-63. Wind NE-N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds break for sun. Areas of fog early. Highs 66-73. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

High pressure brings dry weather for the last full day of summer 2022. Watching for a strong cold front to pass by sometime on the day of the autumnal equinox – September 22 – with a warm push ahead of it, a shower and thunderstorm threat along it, and a wind shift and a push of much cooler / dry air behind it. The timing will have to be tweaked, obviously. Fair weather and below normal temperatures follow it with a warm-up at the very end of this period as high pressure from Canada will then have shifted to the south of the region in a progressive weather pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 26-30)

Medium range forecasts during the peak of hurricane season are always tricky and especially when there is the possibility that a storm will be at least in the general vicinity of the part of the world you are living in. Such is the case here. Fiona, which as a tropical storm will be continuing to battle wind shear, dry air, and eventually mountains, will struggle as it goes into and through the Caribbean in the days ahead. Beyond that, the track and any restrengthening become less certain to determine, but the most likely scenario based on the anticipated weather pattern is that the system ends up somewhere off the US East Coast by the final days of September, at least increasing our surf along the coast. We’ll obviously have to watch for a more direct impact, but my earliest thoughts are that we will be seeing yet another strong push from a Canadian air mass and high pressure area that will be preceded by unsettled weather and followed by a shot of cool/dry air here, keeping any tropical systems from reaching the region. Obviously, you can’t make this kind of forecast in the 11-15 day range with high confidence, so there will be a lot of monitoring to be done in the days ahead.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-16-2022

A cool, dry air flow between Canadian Maritime low pressure and east central Canada high pressure continues today into Friday but the gusty breeze we have will settle back on Friday as the high center moves closer. This high will then move right across the region early in the weekend before settling to the south of our region and allowing a warm-up to take place. For now it still looks like Canadian high pressure will not be strong enough to push another front our way before the end of Sunday, but that boundary will probably be in the region and combine with moisture from the west to bring unsettled weather to the region by Monday.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

Unsettled weather may linger into September 20 with a frontal boundary nearby before dry weather and above normal temperatures return for the final hours of summer. Watching for a Canadian cold front to drop through later in the period with a switch to cooler air but uncertain on the timing.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)

Overall pattern looks fairly dry and there may be 1 or 2 shots of cool air from Canada in a pattern of variable temperatures. Also need to watch potential offshore tropical cyclone activity for at least increased surf.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-15-2022

Low pressure in the Canadian Maritime Provinces and high pressure in east central Canada combine to deliver a much drier air mass to our region. It will start out on the mild side today, but with the help of a secondary cold front coming through the region early Thursday, we’ll see slightly below normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday, along with a gusty breeze, especially Thursday. The wind will ease as the center of high pressure moves closer to and eventually over the region during Friday. The high then slips off to the south allowing for a warm-up and continued dry weather into the weekend. After a cool Saturday morning start, we’ll warm nicely. Sunday presents a bit of a wild-card and some uncertainty as another high pressure area will be in eastern Canada and between that one and the one to our south will be a frontal boundary. This front may slip southward across our region during Sunday and its timing will be a determining factor in Sunday’s weather – both temperature and cloud cover. For now, going with a slower timing, a warmer day with a sun/cloud mix with the boundary staying to the north during the day, but confidence in this is not high 5 days in advance so follow updates as we get closer to this.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW, a few higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 51-58. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

With a frontal boundary nearby and a disturbance coming from the west we start next week with a possibility of unsettled weather and an uncertain temperature forecast with possibly a wide range from north to south 9-19. The forecast for this day can be fine-tuned as we approach the weekend. After this, high pressure is expected to be in control with dry weather and temperatures warming to above normal for the final few days of summer and possibly the first full day of autumn, depending on the timing of the next air mass change. Long way out – long time to figure out details.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)

Overall pattern looks fairly dry and there may be 1 or 2 shots of cool air from Canada in a pattern of variable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-14-2022

Today is the lone unsettled day out of the next 5. A trough of low pressure is moving through the region from west to east, a progressive system with its warm front having gone by already and a cold front to approach and cross the area by mid evening. While we won’t see any sun for fuel today, this is a fairly strong dynamic system for this time of year so that will help trigger the showers and a few heavier thunderstorms. There will be two main rounds of activity. The first is already in the WHW forecast areas western reaches as I write this, and will cross the area during this morning and midday, with a second round coming along late in the day / early evening. Between the two can be a few isolated showers or storms, but not much. While this won’t be a widespread severe weather outbreak, a few of the storms can be strong to locally severe. Also, while much of the region will not see this, these storms can also cause torrential rainfall, low visibility, and brief road flooding, so use caution if you plan to be traveling locally / regionally today. The low pressure area exits early Wednesday, but being a pretty dynamic system, its surface low will be rather impressive and it, combined with approaching high pressure from the west, will create a gusty breeze over the region both Wednesday and Thursday as we see dry weather and a cooling trend. High pressure builds over the region late in the week with continued fair weather – cool nights and pleasant days – Friday and Saturday.

TODAY: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely from southwest to northeast this morning to midday, a few storms possibly strong to severe. Downpours may lead to brief flooding in poor drainage locations as well. Isolated showers this afternoon then a better chance of showers and thunderstorms again in western areas by late in the day. Areas of fog. Humid – dew point 60s. Highs 70-77. Wind S 5-15 MPH, gusty near storms.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms west to east early, then breaking clouds and a clearing trend but areas of fog thereafter. Drying air later at night. Lows 56-63. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches low elevations. Lows 45-52. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 70-77. Wind W to SW up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

High pressure should be in general control of the weather for the period, main center trending to the south and allowing temperatures to warm to above normal. May need to watch for showers from an approaching front by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)

Depending on timing, showers may be around with a passing frontal system to start the period, but overall pattern looks dry with a general cooling trend.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-13-2022

The forecast for the next 5 days is a pretty straightforward one for our area. The wildfire smoke is gone. The coastal waters are settling down. The weather will be most active early in the week as a warm front moves through early today with a possible shower to start the day, then warm and humid weather. A cold front follows on Tuesday, trailing from low pressure passing to our north. This front brings us our only shot of fairly widespread showers, which may also bring a few downpours, but generally a non-beneficial rainfall. We’ll have to watch for some gusty winds with these as well, but the threat of severe weather, albeit slight, is west of our region. After this, high pressure approaches Wednesday behind that front but a little cold pool above us will help create passing diurnal clouds for a sun/cloud mix, then a sunnier sky can be expected Thursday and Friday as the high moves closer bringing us a change to below normal temperatures.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy start including the chance of a passing rain shower. Partly sunny mid morning on. Humid – dew point 65+. Highs 77-84. Wind S under 10 MPH early shifting to SW and increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Lows 60-67. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 70-77. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog and showers likely early. Clearing overnight. Lows 56-63. Drying air. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 45-52. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

September 17-18 weekend looks mostly dry, warmest Saturday dominated by high pressure to the south, cooling Sunday as a front goes by and high pressure anew comes from the north (eastern Canada). Watching for higher humidity, milder air, and a shower chance early the following week with a trough approaching and arriving from the west. Fair weather returns by the end of the period as a progressive pattern kicks the trough out of here.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)

Autumn arrives with the equinox on the evening of September 22. The last hours of summer may be warm before another frontal system delivers cooler air to the region for the middle and end portion of this period, but otherwise a generally dry pattern with high pressure in control for much of the time. Despite recent events, not seeing any lasting drought relief and we should remain in drought for some time to come.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-12-2022

The smoke shield has been replaced by a high cloud shield which will limit the sun today, and thicken up to even blot it out for a time as a warm front approaches but high pressure struggles to maintain control. So the rain with the front will be drying up as it approaches and moves in, but some of it may still reach the ground so the chance of a few showers has to be in the forecast. As we get to Monday, high pressure offshore delivers more humidity. A trough approaching from the west increases the shower chance Monday night, and as this system moves across the region with a frontal boundary during Tuesday, that will be the only day with a good shot at widespread showers and some additional drought relief. After the system moves by, it’s right back to a stretch of dry weather for the middle of the coming week.

TODAY: Limited sun – lots of high clouds into midday. Cloudier for portions of the afternoon including the chance of brief showers / light rain in spots. Highs 77-84, coolest on the coast. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes developing.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point near 60+ early. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 50-57. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

After a brief warm-up with dry weather, a frontal boundary dropping southward introduces Canadian high pressure and cooler air during the course of the September 17-18 weekend. Potential for some unsettled weather arriving from the west at the end of the period with a trough of low pressure, but not convinced this system will have much push with it.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)

The overall pattern looks dry with variable temperatures, averaging near to slightly above normal, as high pressure will be in control much of the time.