C-19 Chat Post – 9-11-2022

High pressure continues to control the weather through the weekend with fair, warmer weather. While we see wildfire smoke from the West in our sky again today, some of this will depart as high clouds replace the smoke on Sunday, so while we’ll have sun both days, it will be filtered. Coastal areas will experience rough surf and large swells today into Sunday due to Hurricane Earl over the open waters of the western Atlantic. Use caution if beaching or boating. High pressure will be off to the south and east of our region and a trough approaching from the west will not be close enough to bring wet weather into the area, so expecting a fair and warm day for the start of the new week. That trough will bring its shower activity through on Tuesday – the unsettled day, before it moves off to the east and drier weather returns by Wednesday.

TODAY: Filtered sun – high altitude smoke. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: High altitude smoke otherwise clear. Patchy ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 54-61. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun filtered through high clouds. Highs 77–84, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Dew Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Highs 70-77. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 65-72. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)

High pressure dominates with fair weather, cooler at first, then a warming trend. A frontal system may bring a shower chance by the end of this period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)

A shower threat may come early in the period with a frontal boundary nearby, then high pressure should take over with mainly dry and seasonable to warm weather as summer draws to a close and autumn arrives (equinox evening of September 22).

C-19 Chat Post – 9-10-2022

High pressure drifts over our area today into Saturday then sinks to the south during the remainder of the weekend, providing fair weather and a warming trend. We won’t have a deep blue sky in this set-up this time, as high altitude smoke from western US wildfires will be over our area. However, this can make for interesting coloring especially near sunrises and sunset times, and will also impact the moon’s look (full Harvest Moon tonight). In addition, Hurricane Earl, having passed east of Bermuda, will be churning north to northeast across the open Atlantic, but will stir up rough surf and large swells which will impact our coastline through the weekend. Early next week, a trough and frontal system arrive from the west with unsettled weather later Monday through Tuesday.

TODAY: Sun, filtered at times by high altitude smoke. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear, but full moon filtered by high altitude smoke. Patchy ground fog forming over lower elevations. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Filtered sun – high altitude smoke. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: High altitude smoke otherwise clear. Patchy ground fog in lower elevations. Lows 54-61. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun filtered through high clouds and high altitude smoke. Highs 77–84, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Dew Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the afternoon, favoring western areas. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 70-77. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

Departing low pressure trough may still cause a passing shower September 14, otherwise high pressure re-takes control of the weather with fair weather and near to eventually above normal temperatures again.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)

A shower threat may come early in the period with a frontal boundary nearby, then high pressure should take over with mainly dry and seasonable to warm weather as summer draws to a close and autumn arrives (equinox evening of September 22).

C-19 Chat Post – 9-9-2022

High pressure will bring us a stretch of fair weather through the weekend, starting out seasonable then warming to a little above normal as the center of the high gradually sinks to the south from just north of to just south of our area during this time. Hurricane Earl, passing far off the East Coast (making a much closer pass east of Bermuda early Friday) will become a major hurricane and send large ocean swells and rough surf to our coastline later this week and especially during the upcoming weekend, which should be noted by anybody with plans for late season beach visits or boating activities. By Monday, a frontal boundary and low pressure trough approaching from the west increases the humidity and shower chances.

TODAY: Areas of clouds this morning, otherwise sunny. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Areas of clouds arrive. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY: Partial sun and areas of ground fog early, then becoming sunny. Highs 74-81, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 54-61. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77–84, coolest South Coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 56-63. Dew point 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the afternoon, favoring western areas. Highs 75-82. Dew point near 60. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

The potential for some unsettled weather as a trough of low pressure and frontal system cross the region through early September 15 with temperatures near to above normal during this time. Generally fair and seasonably mild weather later in the period as high pressure returns to the region.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)

A shower threat may come early in the period with a frontal boundary nearby, then high pressure should take over with mainly dry and seasonable to warm weather as summer draws to a close.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-8-2022

Today completes the transition from wet weather back to dry weather, but a little time is needed for the low level moisture with lingering drizzle and light showers in parts of the South Coast region. As high pressure builds slowly into the region but its center stays to the north we’ll have a northeasterly air flow through Friday, and while still having to contend with some clouds at times into Thursday, the trend will be back to sun each day. The high pressure area will sink to the south over and eventually just to the south of the region during the weekend which will feature dry weather and a warming trend. In summary, after our healthy rainfall event, it’s back to a stretch of dry weather. As we head through late week and the weekend, we’ll experience larger swells and rough surf along the coast due to offshore tropical activity – strengthening Hurricane Earl – moving north to northeast, passing just east of Bermuda early Friday and starting to curve northeastward over open water heading into the weekend.

TODAY: Abundant clouds and areas of drizzle and light showers South Coast to start then more sun there while there is a sun / cloud mix elsewhere. Areas of fog early morning. Highs 66-73. Dew point falling into and through 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Areas of ground fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Dew point lower 50s to upper 40s. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point lower 50s. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH, except 15 MPH at the coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 74-81, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog re-forming overnight. Lows 54-61. Dew point 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77–84, coolest South Coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

The potential for some unsettled weather as a trough of low pressure and frontal system cross the Northeast from later September 12 through early September 15 with temperatures near to above normal during this time. Generally fair and seasonably mild weather later in the period as high pressure returns to the region.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)

The final 5 full days of summer should feature a fairly dry pattern with temperatures near to above normal as high pressure controls most of the time.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-7-2022

Classic “warm rain” event. (We’ll go into that more later.) I didn’t want to buy it. Drought. But here is my time being wrong to highly underestimate the event’s potential, now becoming reality. And despite areas of flooding, which have mostly impacted roads in southern areas, this is generally a beneficial event for the region, greatly relieving drought conditions. Since a good portion of the rain will have occurred before the 8 a.m. Tuesday cut-off for the US Drought Monitor, we won’t have to wait long to see the assessment of positive impact. So now, how long do we have left in this event? A little longer. The entire system is slow to exit, and will still have the ability to deliver us rainfall for at least several more hours today, and have its clouds hang on for a while after that, into Wednesday. Finally, high pressure does build in following this with fair weather for the remainder of mid week all the way to the start of the weekend.

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog. Widespread showers, some heavy at times. Areas of road flooding, especially south of I-90. Highs 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers diminish from north to south. Lows 55-62. Dew point lowering to under 60. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers South Coast morning. Areas of fog morning. Highs 66-73. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of ground fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Dew point upper 40s. Wind NE to N up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point lower 50s. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH, except 15 MPH at the coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

High pressure hangs on with dry weather to finish the weekend. Early next week a frontal boundary and trough approach from the west with a warm-up and eventual shower chance, then seasonable and dry weather after that passes the region.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable but near to above normal temperatures as high pressure is in control much of the time, probably just one frontal boundary to pass through with a brief chance of showers.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-6-2022

Giving up a “holiday” to foul weather is a relatively small sacrifice for what will end up being a widespread beneficial rain event across our region. Yes, I was skeptical. “All systems fail in a drought” is a phrase a well known Boston meteorologist used a lot, and often ends up correct, but we have joked about saying that until you’re wrong, because it’s easier to be wrong once than a bunch of times. Yes, some areas did get great benefit from a recent one-two punch, but this event will give more benefit to a wider area. And it’s a fairly benign looking set-up too. There’s no tropical system. There’s no “big storm”. It’s just a front that came through, slowed down, has a good atmosphere for lift, and a little wave of low pressure to come along to enhance it. We won’t escape some issues, because some of the pockets of heavier rain are indeed going to lead to some areas of flooding. We have parched ground. It’s hard to get rain to soak into that at first, and in areas that see downpours, flooding issues will exist at times today and tonight, maybe even into Tuesday as the system drags itself out a bit. But overall, this is going to be beneficial and finally more than just a scratch on the surface of the drought. So we’ll take it. Does it mean “drought over”? Not yet. We have to see what comes beyond this. We can easily slip back if we stay too dry, but for now, we can rejoice in the benefit we are about to get. This system finally does pull away by late Tuesday and early Wednesday, and then the forecast gets more simple – high pressure builds in with fair weather for later this week.

TODAY – LABOR DAY: Overcast with areas of fog. Widespread showers trending southward with embedded downpours. Areas of flooding likely. Highs 65-70 southern NH / northern MA, 70-75 southern MA / CT / RI. Dew point 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog. Widespread showers, some downpours. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely but with a diminishing north to south during the day. Areas of fog, especially morning. Highs 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Early showers linger southern MA / CT / RI, otherwise breaking clouds. Lows 53-60. Dew point falling to near 50. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Early clouds linger South Coast otherwise sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 50. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Dew point upper 40s. Wind NE under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy ground fog forming. Lows 53-60. Dew point lower 50s. Wind calm.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

High pressure brings dry weather and above normal temperatures for the September 10-11 weekend. Watching for a frontal boundary to bring a shower threat early next week.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable but near to above normal temperatures as high pressure is in control much of the time.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-5-2022

Continuing to fine-tune the details of the unsettled portion of our Labor Day Weekend, and after a beautiful Saturday, we’ll have another generally beautiful day today, just warmer and a little more humid than yesterday. Exception: by late in the day some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity can pop up to the west of the I-95 belt, and much of this will wait until near or even after sunset to start showing up, as it is more dynamically driven than diurnally driven as a weak cold front moves through from north to south. Even so, the diurnal heating having played some role, being absent in the later evening will allow the initial activity to diminish. It will be during Monday morning that a wave will be forming and moving our way along the slow-moving front, largely having passed by the region at that point, so we’ll end up with a cooler, but still humid day on Monday with increasing coverage of showers and embedded heavier rain. My biggest tweak on this update is to move the timing of the most numerous showers up from Monday afternoon through early Tuesday to a midday to mid evening Monday, sealing the deal that Monday is far less favorable for any outdoor activities than the 2 days that preceded it. However, many standard long weekends largely leave Monday as a day to have a nice breakfast then drive home from wherever the destination was. So the rainfall will have more impact on the “holiday commute home” than anything else. Any rain we do get is obviously still much-needed with our ongoing and continuing drought. Sadly, many models and some media maps still paint pictures of more widespread 1-inch-or-greater rainfall amounts than I think we will ultimately see across the region, but we will see, and we’ll take whatever we can get. Improvement is now expected on Tuesday as the wave of low pressure exits early and pulls the frontal boundary further south. High pressure then builds in with great weather for the middle of the coming week – mild and dry Wednesday with a breeze with the high center still to the northwest, less wind and a bit warmer Thursday as the high shifts over the region.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Late-day isolated showers and thunderstorms possible west of I-95. Highs 81-88, a little cooler along the South Coast. Dew point upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms in the evening, favoring southwestern NH and central MA. Variably cloudy with scattered showers overnight. Areas of fog forming late night. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW shifting to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Cloudy. Scattered showers becoming numerous by midday on with embedded heavier downpours. Areas of fog, especially early in the day. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely evening, diminishing overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s-60. Wind NE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Clouds break for sun. Areas of fog early. Highs 71-78. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 51-58. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 50. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Areas of ground fog overnight. Lows 48-55. Dew point upper 40s. Wind N under 10 MPH becoming variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs 75-82. Dew point rising into 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

High pressure shifts to the south with fair weather and temperatures warming to above normal late week into if not through the weekend. Current expecting timing brings the next trough and frontal boundary in early the following week with a chance of showers at that time.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable but near to above normal temperatures as high pressure is the main driver of the weather in our region. Probably one shot of briefly unsettled weather with a frontal boundary but not really possible to time it this far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-4-2022