C-19 Chat Post – 9-4-2022

There’s been a lot of media chatter about a good portion of Labor Day Weekend’s weather going bad, but this is not really going to be the case. Two out of the 3 days are going to be wonderful late summer days, and the final one (Labor Day itself) will become somewhat unsettled. This will take place as high pressure over us today drifts to the south Sunday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. A weak warm front moves across the region today / tonight but other than some high clouds filtering the sun at times today, the only other evidence of this front will be a wind shift to the southwest and increase in humidity, happening for most of us tonight, so not noticeable until Sunday, which will be a more summer-feeling day. Isolated thunderstorms that were in the forecast earlier are not really going to have much of a chance to pop up until later in the day and then most likely over interior higher elevations, as the air will be too stable to get them in most areas. So it will be a really nice summer day for the most part. The cold front finally moves into and across the region Sunday night and early Monday when the shower chance will increase. As the front initially goes by it may dry out just enough so that we see only limited shower chances during a good portion of Monday, but finally later in the day or especially at night we should see a more widespread batch of showers / rain arriving as moisture from the southwest gets involved and a wave of low pressure forms on the frontal boundary. The wildcard is how quickly this wet weather exits the region on Tuesday. Guidance is spread between an all-day rainfall and an early-day rainfall followed by drying conditions. I’m leaning toward the latter – shorter-duration rain and quicker arrival of dry. High pressure builds into the region Wednesday with dry weather expected.

TODAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind SE-S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Fog patches forming. Lows 55-62. Dew point 50s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and pop-up clouds. Highs 81-88. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated thunderstorms in the evening, favoring southwestern NH and central MA. Variably cloudy with scattered showers overnight. Areas of fog forming late night. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind SW shifting to N up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers early morning. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s-60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with showers likely in the morning. Clearing afternoon. Areas of fog early. Highs 70-77. Dew point 60+ morning, 50s afternoon. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Dew point near 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

High pressure shifts to the south with fair weather and a warm-up mid to later portion of next week. No longer thinking frontal boundary is in the area on September 9 but waits until later in the period to arrive with some great late summer weather in the forecast up until an end-of-period shower chance. Still have to monitor for larger swells and surf along the coast due to offshore tropical activity.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable but near to above normal temperatures as high pressure is the main driver of our weather. Continuing to monitor for offshore tropical activity which may at times increase surf along the coast.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-3-2022

We have a significant temperature spread at sunrise on this second day of September. A clear sky and light wind set up radiational cooling overnight, with many areas seeing low temperature in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Exceptions: Boston in the upper 50s due to a combo of urban effect and water’s influence, and Cape Cod around 60 due to the ocean water’s modifying effects. This set-up will repeat tonight which will be the coolest night in a while. But between these 2 cool nights come a very pleasant September day today, under a ridge of high pressure with lots of sun, dry air, light wind. After Saturday’s chilly start, the temperature rebound will be significant as high pressure sinks a little bit to the south a return flow of warmer air arrives. But humidity stays low, making for a great late summer day to start the holiday weekend. High pressure sinks further south and a stronger southwesterly air flow will be established on Sunday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. This set-up brings a stronger breeze but also very warm air and higher humidity. There may be a few pop up showers and thunderstorms ahead of the approaching front late in the day, but these look limited and mostly over interior southern NH to central MA. The cold front will then move across the region during the first half of Monday, based on current timing. This is when we have our greatest chance of showers, in my meteorological opinion. Some of our guidance has suggested a wetter scenario with more widespread rainfall from Monday into Tuesday, but I feel this may be over-done and am going with a more progressive system and a drying trend later Monday onward, with high pressure from eastern Canada being strong enough to accomplish this.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 40s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Clear except ground fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 47-54, warmer in some urban and immediate coastal areas. Dew point upper 40s to 50. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. An afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible, favoring interior southern NH and central MA. Highs 82-89. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog forming. Chance of showers overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind variable to N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers in the morning. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Dew point falling toward 50. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 72-79. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

High pressure builds to the south with dry weather and a warm-up September 7-8. Next frontal boundary brings a shower chance September 9 before another area of high pressure moves in for the September 10-11 weekend with more fair weather. Offshore tropical activity may increase surf and ocean swells later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable but near to above normal temperatures as high pressure is the main driver of our weather. Continuing to monitor for offshore tropical activity which may at times increase surf along the coast.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-2-2022

We are still under the influence of a low pressure circulation to our northeast as we start the month of September, and it will work with a high pressure area building in from the west to send a very dry air mass into the region today on a gusty breeze – a very nice day to open up the first month of meteorological autumn. High pressure settles over the region on Friday with tranquil weather, a cool morning and a warm afternoon, and then a quick temperature drop off at night as we have a clear sky and light wind – the perfect set-up for radiational cooling. After a chilly very early morning on Saturday, we rebound nicely as the high pressure area in control of our weather to start Labor Day Weekend settles to the south. This high will send even warmer and eventually more humid air into the region by Sunday, but at that time another high building out of eastern Canada means there will be a dividing line between the two air masses in the form of a cold front, as the Canadian high builds southward against the retreating high to the south. The frontal boundary may help initiate a few showers and even a thunderstorm in parts of the region on Sunday afternoon, but I don’t expect this activity to be widespread or persist for very long. The front should push far enough south and high pressure from Canada build in enough so that we end up rain-free for the Labor Day holiday itself on Monday, but we may have to deal with a fair amount of cloudiness at times to finish off the long weekend.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point falling to upper 40s. Wind W shifting to NW 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point upper 40s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 40s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear except ground fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 48-55. Dew point upper 40s to 50. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. An afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 82-89. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 70-77, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)

High pressure builds over the region then to the south with dry weather and a warming trend September 6-8. A frontal boundary should bring the chance of a few showers September 9 before a Canadian air mass brings dry and cooler weather to end the period. Rough surf may be evident along the coastline by the end of the period due to Atlantic tropical activity.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)

Overall pattern looks dry with variable but near to above normal temperatures as high pressure is the main driver of our weather. Continuing to monitor for offshore tropical activity which may at times increase surf along the coast.

C-19 Chat Post – 9-1-2022

On this final day of August 2022 we will be transitioning from a humid air mass that tacked on another 90+ day to Boston’s total yesterday and into a drier one, but it will take a number of hours before we feel the drier air. The cold front that leads the new air mass in is just going through the region now, having produced a pretty solid band of light to moderate showers with embedded downpours in the pre-dawn to dawn time frame. As of 7:00 a.m. (the time I began writing this blog update), the shower band is just getting set to exit the NH Seacoast and MA East Coast but is just about to cross Outer Cape Cod before exiting there by 9:00 a.m. Areas to the west saw their showers earlier, and are already rain-free with clearing starting to move in. This drying / clearing trend will push eastward, and while we have a warm day (not as hot as yesterday) the dew point will be going down gradually from west to east as the drier air mass moves into our region. Another secondary front / trough will be passing by later Thursday with a bit of a reinforcement of dry and slightly cooler air to move in on Friday. So as we start September, the trend is drier/cooler as low pressure departs via eastern Canada and high pressure approaches via the Great Lakes area. This high will settle across our region Saturday providing a splendid start to the Labor Day weekend. Saturday could be one of those days with a very large diurnal temperature swing. After we get our cool air delivery on Friday, the high center comes right over our region Friday night and early Saturday morning, the clear sky and calm wind will allow for radiational cooling and with a low dew point, the temperature can fall well down into the 50s with maybe even some upper 40s in the deeper interior valleys. During the day on Saturday, the high center will slip off to the south and east and allow a more southerly air flow to take hold, warming us up nicely, especially inland, away from the ocean’s influence, where areas that were near 50 at sunrise can be around 80 by early afternoon. But despite the warm up the humidity will remain low on Saturday and it will be great for outdoor activities. A bit of a stronger southwesterly air flow will take hold on Sunday, pushing higher humidity into the region, with high pressure now to the south, and a cold front approaching from the northwest. This front looks like it may be somewhat moisture starved and not have a lot of support, but I cannot rule out a shower or thunderstorm for some areas later Sunday. Still have to tweak the more precise timing of this threat…

TODAY: Showers exit coastal areas before 8:00 a.m. except outer Cape Cod by 9:00 a.m. with clouds giving way to sun and passing clouds west to east. Highs 81-88. Dew point upper 60s to middle 70s early in the day, gradually but steadily falling to upper 50s to middle 60s by late in the day. Wind shifting to W and increasing to 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling through 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point near 50. Wind W shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear except ground fog patches forming interior lower elevations. Lows 48-55. Dew point upper 40s to 50. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point rising through 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. An afternoon shower or thunderstorm possible. Highs 82-89. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)

Labor Day September 5 should feature cooler weather and a sun/cloud mix with high pressure to the north sending a northeasterly air flow into the region. High pressure sinks to the south with fair weather and a warming trend September 6-8 before the next frontal boundary arrives with a shower threat and higher humidity at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)

As we reach the middle of September we’ll likely be governed by high pressure with mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures and we’ll continue to monitor for offshore tropical activity which may at least increase the surf along the coastline.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-31-2022

Down to the last couple days of August, and we’ve had our share of heat this month. We’ll get one more hot day today ahead of an approaching cold front, with high pressure offshore. Humidity will be up as well. The timing of the cold front though is late, and that means that thunderstorms that form well west and northwest of our region won’t get here before day’s end, and we’ll end up with remnant activity in the late night / overnight hours, to around dawn on Wednesday as the front pushes through from west to east. There still can be a few thunderstorms then, but most areas will see showers, or even nothing at all other than just some cloudiness moving through. Wednesday, it will still be a warm day (a bit less hot than today) but the humidity will noticeably drop behind the front. We’ll still have a bit of a trough moving through the Northeast both Wednesday and Thursday, and another frontal boundary still has to come through at some point Thursday. This boundary will have very little moisture to work with so I’m not expecting showers with it, just some clouds, and a transition to a cooler air mass through Friday. High pressure builds in with a great start to the holiday weekend on Saturday.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 86-93. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible mainly I-95 westward late evening / overnight. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm near eastern coastal areas around dawn, otherwise sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 81-88. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling toward 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 52-59. Dew point near 50. Wind calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH but coastal sea breezes possible.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)

High pressure sinks to the south with fair and warm weather for September 4, then a cold front travels through, likely dry, and Canadian high pressure continues with fair weather but with cooler air to finish off the Labor Day weekend on September 5. This high should then sink to the south with fair weather and a warm-up later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)

We’ll watch for a frontal boundary crossing with a possible shower around September 9 and possibly some offshore tropical activity later in the period, otherwise high pressure should dominate with mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-30-2022

Similar to both weekend mornings, a large area of stratus clouds sits mainly over inland locations with a few patchy clouds elsewhere to start the day. A southwesterly air flow developing over the region is pushing this stratus layer to the northeast but as the morning goes on it will erode away and dissipate, and today’s diurnal cloud development will be less than the previous 2 days when we had a northeast breeze Saturday and southeast breeze Sunday. Today’s southwest wind will transport warmer to hotter air into the region and it will feel a little bit more like the middle of summer. But now you’re noticing, that sun angle – not quite as high as it once was. And it’s not setting after 8 p.m. not even after 7:30 pm. anymore but earlier and earlier in the 7:00 p.m. hour. But most areas will see it set today as we’ll have far fewer clouds about during this evening. The high pressure heat pump will be at it again Tuesday which will be a pretty warm to hot and somewhat humid day by late August standards. A cold front approaching the region will not do so quickly enough to send any showers or thunderstorms into the WHW forecast area before the day is over. We’ll see some clouds in the western sky later in the day from this activity to our west, but the remains of it will be all that make it through here overnight. The cold front responsible for it will still be moving through the region Wednesday morning, so the chance of showers or even a brief thunderstorm will still be there mainly for southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI through about midday. In addition, during the morning a little wave of low pressure moving by Cape Cod may toss a swath of showers up across that region. But Wednesday afternoon, drier air arrives, and while it will be quite a warm day, you’ll notice the dew point going down as the day goes on, once that front goes by. Any additional afternoon showers on Wednesday look like they will be confined to the mountains to our north. So ends August, and September will begin on a dry and slightly cooler note Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds into the region from Canada.

TODAY: Early morning clouds abundant in parts of eastern MA much of central MA, RI, and eastern CT, with more sunshine elsewhere, then sunshine dominant thereafter with just some passing fair weather clouds. Highs 84-91, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear except a few patches of low clouds and ground fog. Lows 64-71, warmest urban areas. Dew point 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 86-93. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible mainly I-95 westward. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point 65+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy until midday with a shower or thunderstorm possible I-95 eastward, then sun and passing clouds. Highs 81-88. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind SW shifting to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling toward 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Dew point near 50. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 73-80. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)

High pressure will be the dominant force for Labor Day Weekend September 3-5 with warming Saturday and Sunday as high pressure overhead sinks to the south, and then a frontal boundary will come through likely dry and Canadian high pressure will bring slightly cooler air for Monday. Fair weather should continue into late period with another warm-up.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)

We’ll watch for a frontal boundary crossing with a possible shower around September 9 and possibly some offshore tropical activity later in the period, otherwise high pressure should dominate with mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-29-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

Early this morning a stratus blanket sits over much of the region but this has already been eroding from east to west so that many eastern MA and RI areas as well as the NH Seacoast are seeing sunshine, and this is progressing inland with time and this general trend will continue. Although a few clouds may be stubborn in some areas and others can redevelop in the form of cumulus clouds as the sun’s heating increases, similar to yesterday. All in all, we end up with a sun/cloud mix but a rather nice day, thanks to high pressure centered to our east. This high will slip southward into the “Bermuda High” position to start off the week, so our heat and humidity levels will increase Monday into Tuesday, but not close to the levels of previous hot spells this summer. Also, it will be rather short-lived as a cold front approaches and passes through the region between late Tuesday and midday Wednesday, based on current expected timing. This timing is limiting for showers and thunderstorms, with most activity during the day Tuesday to our west and north, diminishing before it arrives in this area, and most of Wednesday’s activity firing up to our east if the front is quick enough, and possibly over southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI if the front is just a little slower, with activity favoring the morning and midday. Today’s forecast update will take into account either possibility and then of course it will be fine-tuned as we get closer with the help of short-range guidance early in the week. Thursday is the first day of September and on cue a Canadian high pressure area will deliver us a fresh air mass from our neighbors to the north, for the first day of meteorological autumn.

TODAY: Clouds dominate inland areas and parts of the South Coast early, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 60-67. Dew point near 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 84-91 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 60+. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point 60+. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day thunderstorm chance north and west. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Areas of fog. Lows 67-73. Dew point 60s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Showers possible favoring southern and eastern areas early in the day. An additional shower or thunderstorm possible through midday southeastern NH, eastern MA, and RI. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60s but lowering slowly. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point falling toward 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)

High pressure is expected to dominate with fair weather and a slow warming trend from September 2-5 which includes all of Labor Day Weekend. A frontal boundary may get closer with higher humidity and a shower threat by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)

A frontal boundary may be close by early in the period with a shower threat, then high pressure takes over with another stretch of fair weather, starting cooler than warming up. We may have to watch the waters to our south and/or southeast for a tropical system out there by later in the period as there are signs of a little more activity in the tropics in the days to come and somewhat more reliable medium range guidance has been putting systems out there around that time. At this time of year it’s always necessary to pay attention to this regardless of how quiet or active the season has been thus far.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-28-2022