C-19 Chat Post – 8-20-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 19-23)

The return to the feel of summer begins today as a warmer westerly flow between low pressure in eastern Canada and high pressure southwest of New England brings in warmer air but with fairly low humidity. The high slides offshore for the weekend bringing a very warm and increasingly humid southwesterly air flow to our region, though humidity levels will stay below the oppressive category despite their noticeable rise. Cloud cover will be limited much of the time, with just passing patches of clouds lingering today around the base of upper level low pressure as it departs while a few fair-weather cumulus will pop up and drift along in the wind. Tomorrow’s cumulus pop-up should be a little more prolific but not enough to interrupt the sun for long periods of time. I’m keeping the shower chance out of my forecast but a shower or storm may pop up in the mountains to our west, but something to watch just in case one wanders into the western reaches of the region or pops up in those areas due to an outflow boundary later in the day. Also, a sea breeze may get going in coastal areas for a while Saturday, keeping temperatures in check there while inland areas heat more. Sunday will be similar in terms of heating up best inland while a sea breeze can scale things back at the coast, and this time the sky coverage may be more from higher clouds, but thin so that they only veil the sun. Bottom line: Nice summertime stretch of weather through the weekend. Things change early next week as a broad area of low pressure crosses the region from west to east. Its warm front brings lots of clouds and the threat of some shower activity Monday, with a spike in humidity, setting up a shower and thunderstorm chance as the cold front crosses on Tuesday. Details can’t be determined for days 4 & 5 yet so that will take place later.

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 81-88. Dew point middle 50s to 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 62-69. Dew point upper 50s to 60. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny start then a mix of sun and clouds by midday-afternoon. Highs 80-85 coast, 85-90 inland. Wind SW up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog overnight interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 83-90 except cooler some coastal areas. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to S.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 65-72, warmest urban areas. Dew point 60s. Wind SSE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers likely. Slight chance of thunder. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 63-70. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 80-87. Dew point upper 60s to 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 24-28)

High pressure re-gains control with mostly dry weather and near to above normal temperatures dominant until late period when a shower and thunderstorm chance re-appears with a disturbance moving in.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 29 – SEPTEMBER 2)

The final days of August and the start of September should feature near to above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall with high pressure in control most of the time. One stronger front from Canada may introduce a brief shot of cooler air but I don’t have high confidence in this at this time.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-19-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 18-22)

Low pressure’s greatest impact on our region yesterday was clouds and wind, and not the beneficial rain we were looking for. In fact, most of the WHW forecast area received traces to feeble measurable amounts (0.01 inch at Boston, for example). This provided no help in reducing the drought, which will now build further as we enter another stretch of dry weather. First, a few very light showers are crossing northern MA and southern NH to start the day today, around the circulation of the departing low pressure area, a pretty strong storm for this time of year despite having failed us on rain. We’ll see a clearing trend which has already worked across the South Coast continue to expand northward, though as the storm’s clouds depart, some fair-weather clouds will likely pop up in response to the sun’s return and the cool air aloft, so we may not really see complete clearing until tonight, when high pressure starts to build in. This high will provide us with a fair and much warmer day Friday, with lower humidity, and the high will continue to keep us fair through the weekend. Saturday will feature the brightest sun and still-manageable humidity. Sunday you’ll notice some cloudiness filtering the sun in response to low pressure to our west and south, and also an up-tick in humidity as the high center will be offshore. By Monday, the door will be open for the chance of showers and noticeably humid air, though this time the temperatures will be kept in check and we won’t heat up like our recent hot stretch.

TODAY: Stray light showers early morning southern NH and northern MA, otherwise a cloud/sun mix. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts this morning, diminishing slightly during this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 54-61. Dew point near 50. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point below 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 82-89 except cooler South Coast. Dew point 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 65-72, warmest urban areas. Dew point 60s. Wind SSE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possible thunderstorms. Highs 80-87 except 70s coast. Dew point 60s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 23-27)

Higher humidity along with a shower and thunderstorm chance early next week then a trend toward seasonably warm and dry weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 28 – SEPTEMBER 1)

The final days of August and the start of September should feature near to above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall with high pressure in control most of the time.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-18-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 17-21)

I can’t say I’m surprised that the original multi-day beneficial rain threat has dwindled to a “gee I hope we can get a few hours of rain enough to wet the ground at least” event. For reasons (model-wise and otherwise) that I have already talked about on this blog, while staying hopeful I wasn’t going to hold my breath on this being a significant event for all of us. However there will still be some areas that get benefit out of this, maybe up to 1/2 inch of rain, favoring northeastern MA and southeastern NH, as mentioned on yesterday’s blog update. Elsewhere, I don’t hold out much hope for many areas seeing more than 1/4 inch. In fact, there are enough thin spots in the overcast this morning that the sun is shining through it. With low pressure moving to the north, keeping a lot of its influence over the water to our east, hooking it back just enough to get the previously-mentioned areas with a little more rain later on, the forecast from yesterday remains pretty much unchanged. One other thing to watch today will be for some minor coastal flooding due to rough surf and some larger ocean swells. This will be most likely a couple hours either side of high tide. We’ll still be under the influence of the circulation of this low pressure area on Thursday as it pulls away, so expect a few morning showers possibly in southern NH and northern MA, otherwise a day of lots of clouds, limited sun, and a gusty breeze. High pressure then builds in with a return to the feel of summer Friday through the coming weekend. Humidity, while on the rise, will remain in check until later in the weekend when it will rise to more uncomfortable levels.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of rain and drizzle, mostly insignificant, but some steadier rainfall more likely in northeastern MA and southern NH during the afternoon. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind NE-N 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH coast with gusts 25-35 MPH Cape Ann and Cape Cod and up to 25 MPH remainder of coastal plain.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain most likely southern NH and northern MA. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling into and eventually through 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A brief passing shower possible southern NH and northern MA early. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point below 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point below 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 22-26)

Higher humidity along with a shower and thunderstorm chance early next week then a trend toward seasonably warm and dry weather thereafter.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 27-31)

The final days of August should feature near to above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall with high pressure in control most of the time.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-17-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 16-20)

What once looked like a 3-day wet weather event according to the models is just down to a minimal 1-day thing, with very limited help for our drought. First, today, one of the days that originally looked cloudier and wetter, starts out quite nice as a weak area of high pressure holds on for a few more hours. Low pressure developing to our south will send its cloud shield northward into the region as the day goes on, thickening up more quickly over Cape Cod then into the rest of southeastern MA and RI, and these areas may see some rain drops before the end of the afternoon and more certainly this evening. That low will move northeast, then north, then hook back to the northwest as it passes to our east, but close enough to bring some rainfall to much of the WHW forecast area from late tonight into much of Wednesday, although areas to the southwest and west will have the lightest and most spotty rain while areas to the east see a steadier area. And it is these areas to the east which have the potential for 0.25 to 0.50 inch of rain. Even this close to the event, there are still some significant enough model differences to try to confuse the forecaster, but this seems to be the best-bet scenario. Whatever wet weather we get tapers off Wednesday night, but as the low starts to pull away early Thursday, there may be one wrap-around shower area that gets southern NH and/or northern MA with a brief bout of rainfall to start the day, otherwise looks for a sun/cloud mix, dry air, but warmer with a land breeze behind the departing low Thursday. High pressure builds in with great summer weather late in the week, but you will notice an increase in humidity as we move through Friday and Saturday.

TODAY: Sun to start, then increasing clouds from south to north. Rain develops later in the day South Coast especially southern RI to Cape Cod. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s to middle 60s, highest South Coast. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely RI, eastern MA, and moving into southeastern NH, with periods of rain to the west. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts in eastern coastal locations.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with rain and drizzle, steadiest in eastern MA and southeastern NH. Areas of fog. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH especially eastern coastal locations.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers mainly evening. Areas of fog early. Lows 55-62. Dew point falling into and eventually through 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. A brief passing shower possible southern NH and northern MA early. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 21-25)

Looks like the rest of the weekend finishes up rain-free and warm August 21. Humidity stays high and shower chances go up mid period then drier air arrives late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 26-30)

Still looking for a southwesterly to westerly air flow in general with limited rain opportunities and near to above normal temperatures late August.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-16-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 15-19)

And now we reach the half-way point of the month of August and the start of a new week. Today will be a fairly nice day with high pressure hanging on, providing a sun/cloud mix and modest humidity with seasonable warmth. The high gives way to a broad circulation of low pressure which will result in a cooler but more humid onshore air flow for Tuesday and Wednesday. We’ve been over the ups and downs on the guidance and all of that, but leaving out the rollercoaster details, I am going to tell you that my strong leaning now is for a drier forecast with more of a scattering of shower activity from later Tuesday through Wednesday. There is just enough evidence to still leave the door open for a more widespread swath of showers / rain for northeastern MA and southeastern NH on Wednesday, but don’t be surprised if I have to pull back from this on the next update. In short, not a whole lot of drought relief is in store for us despite it looking a little more promising previously. Later in the week, high pressure retakes the region with fair weather returning and a warming trend as well.

TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Limited sun at times with clouds dominant. A chance of showers, favoring the South Coast. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point around 60. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers likely, but more widespread showers are possible in southeastern NH and adjacent northeastern MA. Areas of fog early. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 76-83. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 20-24)

Increasing humidity, but slowly, during the course of the August 20-21 weekend. Mainly dry weather is expected overall, but a shower threat may present itself later in the weekend. A bout of higher humidity and opportunity for a few showers and thunderstorms at times early to middle portion of next week with a general southwesterly air flow dominating.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 25-29)

Still looking for a southwesterly to westerly air flow in general with limited rain opportunities and near to above normal temperatures into late August.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-15-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 14-18)

Will it rain? Will it not rain? If it rains, how much will it rain? Questions without answers. Well we have some answers, but not all of them are complete or confident, but we’ll get to that. First we have a beautiful Sunday to enjoy before our weather pattern takes a turn. Today’s weather is brought to you by Canadian high pressure and brings us lots of sun, a chilly morning compared to recently, but a nice rebound to near normal afternoon highs with low humidity. It’s interesting to note that this morning’s 7:00 a.m. temperatures showcase some of the regional / local differences you can have. Boston, for example, is exhibiting the urban heat island effect with 65 while a typical cool spot, Norwood, sits at 53, just a few degrees above the upper 40s. Meanwhile, out on the islands, ocean water keeps Nantucket modified at 68 while the relatively low elevation air port at Martha’s Vineyard sits at 54. These are the types of things a forecaster has to take into account when they need to get very specific with temperature forecasts, and it’s often easy to forget and have certain areas outside your temperature range, even if the forecast was “generally” good. Anyway, nice day today, and then the change begins Monday, slowly though, as high pressure slides offshore. As a broad area of weak low pressure begins to expand slowly northward along the US East Coast, we’ll first notice some increase in cloud cover, though the humidity rise will be hardly noticeable at first. It’s the Tuesday-Thursday period when we will have our highest humidity and a greater threat of some rain in the region. The model guidance is now all over the place with rainfall amounts – with the 3 models I mentioned yesterday having kind of flip flopped overall, ranging from a tenth of an inch of rain (European model) to a more moderate rainfall event (GFS model’s 06z run after a heavier one on the 00z run), with their colleague the Canadian model getting fancy with a heavier rain event for northeastern MA and southeastern NH while the rest of the region is left out, having just light rain. What does this tell you? It tells you that the guidance is not very helpful for this event just a few days out from it. But since Tuesday is day 3 on a Sunday morning update, and it looks like the main event, whatever that turns out to be, will be Wednesday to early Thursday, I can’t say I’m surprised. To be fair, while not a winter pattern, the set-up of the surface features looks a little like what you see in a colder season storm (just not as strong) so the configuration of that pattern and exact placement of features will be key in determining just how things unfold. So another day must go by before I really try to nail down details, and for now I am going to go with a light to moderate rain event for Wednesday, ending Thursday, and adjustments will be made as necessary.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62, warmest urban areas. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sun and high clouds. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the South Coast. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely eastern MA, RI, and southeastern NH. Chance of rain elsewhere. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Dew point around 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible in coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Areas of fog. Lows 55-62. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers in the morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 75-82. Dew point 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 19-23)

High pressure brings fair and warmer weather with manageable humidity for August 19 through the August 20-21 weekend based on current timing. Humidity increases along with a shower/thunderstorm chance early the following week as high pressure shifts off the Atlantic Coast.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 24-28)

Overall trend is for weak westerly to southerly flow with limited rain chances and near to above normal temperatures. Still don’t see a pattern that brings consistent enough rainfall to do a lot of drought reduction.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-14-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 13-17)

If you are getting up to a blanket of clouds overhead, think of it as the toll booth at the entrance of a very nice weekend, and the toll is a rather cheap one, as we just have a few hours of clouds to deal with over eastern areas from a passing offshore disturbance. Otherwise a magnificent mid August weekend is ours as high pressure becomes dominant and we have low humidity and dry weather. In fact the only negative aspect of this stretch is it allows more building of the drought, but enjoy the nice weather for what it is. Humidity will be making a come back early to mid next week, but this time without the heat. This will take place as the high moves away Monday and a broad but weak area of low pressure to our south tries to head in this direction. With the exception of one really bad GFS run (06z), all reliable guidance now has a fairly minimal impact on our area from this system. If this is correct, it’s not great news, because the possibility of beneficial rain to help the drought diminishes greatly in the scenario being depicted by most guidance, and that is to take the bulk of the rainfall initially out to the south, then turning northward and northwestward too late to help us (though parts of northern New England, especially Maine, would do better). So while our weather becomes more humid and somewhat unsettled later Monday into Wednesday, I’m less optimistic about a helpful rain event.

TODAY: Lots of clouds especially eastern areas into mid morning, exiting from west to east, lastly on Cape Cod, by late morning, with a sun/cloud mix after. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Dew point ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s most areas but still near 60 across Cape Cod before falling into the 50s. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Ground fog patches forming over interior lower elevations. Lows 51-58, coolest interior lower elevations. Dew point near 50. Wind calm.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84, coolest coast. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62, warmest urban areas. Dew point lower 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. A chance of showers near the South Coast by late-day. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Dew point 60+. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point 60+. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the morning. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Dew point near 60. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 18-22)

Low pressure trough lets go of the area with maybe a spot shower or thunderstorm otherwise fair and warming up August 18, then high pressure takes over with dry and warmer weather and most likely a return to moderate humidity through the August 20-21 weekend, and maybe a bit more heat and humidity sneaking in by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 23-27)

High pressure dominates with below normal rainfall and near to above normal temperatures during the last full week of August.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-13-2022