C-19 Chat Post – 8-5-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 4-8)

A hot spell is ours for the next 5 days. The hottest day is likely to be today, and there were be locations that catch some breaks from the heat, though the humidity is going to reside in the high category for most of us for the entire period, only knocked down almost unnoticed when a weakening cold front comes through the region late Friday and washes out over the region early in the weekend. Overall, there are no real changes to yesterday’s ideas. I’ve wrestled with the idea of whether or not thunderstorms from NY would reach the northwestern WHW forecast area later today, and yesterday I took them out of my forecast, but today I have to include the chance that one or two make it there this evening. Not looking for any severe storms, just remnant activity. Friday carries our greatest thunderstorm potential with the approach of the frontal boundary, which then diminishes to only widely scattered Saturday and isolated for Sunday as that boundary washes out over the region, but the approach of another front from the northwest by Monday increase the chance again later that day, based on current expected timing.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 92-99 except 85-92 South Coast and 78-85 Nantucket. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of an evening shower and brief thunder southwestern NH and north central MA. Lows 72-77. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially mid to late afternoon. Highs 90-97 except below 90 along the South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, except may linger later South Coast. Fog patches forming. Lows 66-73. Dew point falling to middle to lower 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH,.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers South Coast early. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible anywhere during the afternoon. Highs 85-92, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 86-93, coolest southern coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to 70.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 89-96. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 9-13)

The front that approaches late August 8 may take the entirety of August 9 to pass through so there will be a shower and thunderstorm chance that day. High pressure moves in with fair and warm but lower humidity weather August 10-11 before the humidity and thunderstorm chances increase later in the period, at least briefly. Watching for a possible push of drier air from the north at the very end of the period, but low confidence on that right now.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 14-18)

A few hints starting to show up that we may see some pattern retrogression, putting the high pressure and hot weather back toward the middle of the US. If this takes place, the door may open to drier and somewhat cooler air from eastern Canada. Either way, rainfall pattern looks below normal allowing drought to continue.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-4-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 3-7)

Classic summertime pattern for New England over the next 5 days. First, high pressure sits over us today with warm air but lower humidity behind a weak cold front that passed by our region during yesterday. This front produced a few showers and thunderstorms, but most locations went without. Everybody gets the humidity break today though, and many areas will fail to reach 90, though some interior locations may touch it this afternoon. Expect a coastal sea breeze to provide natural air conditioning for the beaches. The Bermuda High heat pump takes hold for Thursday through the weekend, but the hottest day, temperature-wise, will be Thursday when dew points start out lower and give the atmosphere a chance to heat up more rapidly. The thunderstorms that I previously mentioned to watch for late in the day for the northwestern reaches of the WHW forecast area will probably take place a little further west and an hour or two later than I envisioned previously, so I am removing this chance from the forecast other than us seeing a deck of clouds on the horizon that may blot out the sun before it reaches the horizon Thursday. Friday and the weekend will be very warm to hot and humid, with highest dew points likely on Friday. They may come down just a bit for the weekend as what used to be a cold front moving into the region on Friday will wash out and dissipate as it runs into the influence of the Bermuda High, but will have brought with it every-so-slightly less humid air. Many won’t notice a big difference though, except possibly along the coast where a few sea breeze may take place on the weekend – more likely Saturday than Sunday. Also, I expect that the weekend will be largely a rain-free time period, but I cannot rule out a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms popping up. There may also be a little bit more in the way of mid level cloudiness at times during the course of the weekend from some air lifting over what used to be that frontal boundary, and a couple very weak disturbances coming along in the southwesterly air flow over the Northeast.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 79-84 coast, 85-90 inland. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 92-99 except 85-92 South Coast and 78-85 Nantucket. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 72-77. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially mid to late afternoon. Highs 90-97 except below 90 along the South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, except may linger later South Coast. Fog patches forming. Lows 66-73. Dew point falling to middle to lower 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH,.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers South Coast early. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible anywhere during the afternoon. Highs 83-90, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes possible.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon. Highs 83-90, coolest southern coastal areas. Dew point upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 8-12)

High humidity and very warm to hot weather with a thunderstorm threat as a cold front moves into and across the region during August 8. High pressure builds in with fair weather, lower humidity but still moderate, and temperatures near to above normal August 9-11 before humidity and shower chances go up at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 13-17)

Near to above normal temperatures with higher humidity dominant as we head through the middle of the month. Opportunities for showers / thunderstorms at times, but overall pattern looks fairly dry in terms of rainfall.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-3-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 2-6)

Some summer heat and humidity will be around during this 5 day period, but there are moderating factors and breaks built into this pattern as well. So despite some media making you think otherwise, this won’t be a sustained stretch of weather brutality. In fact, today starts out rather comfortable but it does heat up and the humidity goes up during the day as we get a southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. Like many systems this season, this front will struggle to produce much in the way of shower and thunderstorm activity (even though guidance in previous days showed otherwise – gee what a surprise!). The areas that do see something can get a downpour with thunder, so be on the look out for that later today / early this evening. That’s outta here tonight and the humidity drops a few notches. With high pressure centered to our north for Wednesday we’ll find ourselves in a more comfortable northerly to easterly air flow and just above everybody staying under 90 for high temps, with coolest on the coast. But the heat and humidity comes back for Thursday as that high center slips to the southeast and turns out the heat pump. That will be the day that most areas will easily exceed 90, and some locations will make a run for the upper 90s. I don’t think we’ll find any triple-digit temperatures that day, however, and most record high temperatures for the date will stand unbroken. We’ll have to watch for a batch of thunderstorms coming out of NY State late in the day or the evening but those are likely to run out of steam before having much of an impact on our region. If anything does make it into the WHW forecast area, it would be the northwesterly portions (central MA and southwestern NH) late-day or evening. More likely our shower and thunderstorm threat will be on Friday as a cold front moves into and slowly across the region. That day will still also be quite humid and rather warm to hot. The front will push through by early Saturday and my current thoughts for that day allow for lingering showers near the South Coast early in the day, otherwise high pressure providing drier weather, less heat, and moderate to high humidity (but a bit lower than Friday) to start the first weekend of August. We may have to deal with some cloudiness however with the front sitting not too far to the south.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. A shower or thunderstorm possible west to east late afternoon to early evening. Highs 86-93 except 78-85 South Coast. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, but can be variable and gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog forming interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 79-84 coast, 85-90 inland. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. An slight chance of an evening thunderstorm well north and west of Boston. Highs 92-99 except 85-92 South Coast and 78-85 Nantucket. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 72-77. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 88-95. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early, except may linger later South Coast. Fog patches forming. Lows 66-73. Dew point falling to middle to lower 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH,.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers South Coast early. Highs 81-88, coolest eastern coastal areas. Wind N to NE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 7-11)

The front just to the south likely dissipates by later in the weekend (August 7) so expect some clouds around but dry weather and moderate humidity. Southwesterly air flow provides a shot of heat and humidity and approaching cold front adds a thunderstorm threat for August 8. High pressure should build in behind that with fair weather, modest humidity, and temperatures near to above normal August 9-11, maybe a bit hotter by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 12-16)

Near to above normal temperatures with higher humidity dominant as we head into the middle of the month. Opportunities for showers / thunderstorms at times, but overall pattern looks fairly dry.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-2-2022

DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 1-5)

August opens with a disturbance passing by to our south, but close enough that it has brought a few periods of rain to the South Coast region and some showers to the north of there. It’s no drought-buster by any stretch, far from it, but any raindrops are welcomed right now. Our problem is, we haven’t been able to string together several beneficial events in this part of the country of late, and that pattern is going to continue, as it looks right now, for some time into August. But first, focusing on the month’s first 5 days, we see that disturbance exit today, replaced later by weak high pressure and partial clearing, modest humidity, and not too hot a day to open the month. The high shifts offshore Tuesday as a low pressure trough and weak cold front approach. This allows it to be very warm and more humid Tuesday, along with a shower and thunderstorm chance mainly later in the day. This boundary passes by and a new high pressure area takes hold Wednesday. This day will feature lower humidity but still very warm to hot air. As that high slides offshore by Thursday, this is when we can expect our hottest weather for the week with many areas easily exceeding 90 for high temps and some areas reaching the middle to upper 90s. As far as any thunderstorm chances go on Thursday, we’ll have to watch for the development of a line or cluster of storms to the west of the WHW forecast area that afternoon, closer to an approaching trough of low pressure, to see if it can manage to survive into parts of the region by later in the day or in the evening. By Friday, that trough of low pressure takes the edge of the high heat, but it still will be a very warm to hot and humid day, and add to that a better chance of showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches.

TODAY: Clouds most dominant morning, less so afternoon. Periods of rain early in the day South Coast region with scattered to isolated showers elsewhere, diminishing through the morning. Additional showers or drizzle South Coast this afternoon. Highs 82-89. Dew point 60s. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches forming. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms west to east mid afternoon to early evening. Highs 86-93. Dew point middle 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, but can be variable and gusty near any storms.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog forming interior lower elevations. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85 coast, 85-92 inland. Dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. An evening thunderstorm possible favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 92-99 except 85-92 South Coast and 78-85 Nantucket. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. An evening shower or thunderstorm possible, mainly north and west of Boston. Lows 72-77. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 88-95. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 6-10)

The front that approaches late week will be moving out of the region during the first part of the August 6-7 weekend but may be close enough for lingering showers South Coast to start the weekend and a potential return of those showers by the end of the weekend, otherwise most areas look dry with near to slightly above normal temperatures and modest humidity. Higher heat/humidity along with a shower and thunderstorm chance August 8 with high pressure offshore and an approaching frontal boundary. If current timing holds, high pressure moves in with slightly drier and seasonably warm weather toward the middle of next week.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 11-15)

Near to above normal temperatures with higher humidity dominant as we head into the middle of the month. Opportunities for showers / thunderstorms at times, but overall pattern looks fairly dry.

C-19 Chat Post – 8-1-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

We may be in a drought situation but we’ve been getting some great vacation weather around here this year. Always a price to pay, it seems. With no end in sight to the drought, we do look for any drop of rain we can get, and there are not a lot of drops in the forecast over the next 5 days as we end July and begin August. If you were up early today, temperatures in the 50s greeted you if you went outside, thanks to low humidity, a clear overnight sky, and calm wind, setting up a nice radiational cooling episode. But today with high pressure over us we’ll see about 100% of the possible sun, maybe briefly blotted out by a few fair weather clouds and then filtered by some high clouds this afternoon. We can also enjoy low humidity and light wind with some coastal sea breezes developing. High pressure moves offshore tonight. Monday, low pressure passes south of New England but may be just close enough to bring heavier clouds and perhaps some shower activity to the South Coast before it moves away. Tuesday, humidity spikes ahead of an approaching cold front which brings us the chance of a shower or thunderstorm later in the day or the evening. A new bubble of high pressure via the Great Lakes brings slightly drier air for Wednesday, with fair weather, before it moves offshore and we get a spike of higher heat and humidity for Thursday. While many areas get to 90 or higher that day, some of the astronomical readings guidance has been showing us for many days leading up to this are highly unlikely to occur. The next potential thunderstorm threat can come later Thursday pending the speed of approach of the next cold front and whether or not there is an active pre-frontal trough, which would be the most likely trigger and most likely north and west of Boston. But it’s far too early for any timing / detail.

TODAY: Mainly sunny. Highs 81-88, coolest coast where it can fall back to the 70s. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point middle to upper 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers South Coast. Partly to mostly sunny elsewhere with most sun further north. Highs 83-90, warmest interior northern MA and southern NH. Dew point passing 60 on its way up. Wind variable to SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly late in the day. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of thunderstorms late-day or evening, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 90-97 except cooler South Coast. Dew point upper 60s to near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 5-9)

This is where my forecast starts to diverge from what medium range guidance shows as I feel most medium range models are performing very poorly. August 5 is a muggy day with a shower / thunderstorm threat as a cold front approaches and crosses the region. High pressure brings warm, dry weather for August 6 into August 7 but an attempt at humidity returning brings clouds back for the end of that weekend eventually leading to a shower / thunderstorm chance around August 8 before another shot of drier air arrives for the end of the period. Temperatures near to above normal for average, but no extreme heat at least in any prolonged fashion.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 10-14)

Near to above normal temperatures with higher humidity dominant. Opportunities for showers / thunderstorms at times, but overall pattern looks fairly dry. Basically “typical” August weather in New England.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-31-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

A fabulous weekend is ours for the final 2 days of July. High pressure builds in with seasonable warmth and low humidity. We only have to deal with some early clouds today over southeastern areas, as daybreak showers have already exited the Cape Cod area as of the time I write this update. Today will also be the breezier of the 2 weekend days, so if your plan is to fly a kite at some point this weekend, today’s your day! 😉 A lighter wind will be had Sunday as the high center is more on top of the region and the pressure gradient is relaxed. High pressure slides offshore as August arrives and we’ll build a bit of heat and humidity back in early next week, including a thunderstorm threat later Tuesday with the approach of a weak cold front. That front will introduce a new area of high pressure and a slightly less hot and humid air mass for Wednesday.

TODAY: Early to mid morning clouds southeastern MA and RI, otherwise a sun/cloud mix. Highs 81-88. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, coolest coast. Dew point under 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-92. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 86-93. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 60-67. Dew point falling to upper 50s. Wind SW shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 4-8)

High pressure will be in control of the weather for much of this time period. Surface high pressure goes offshore again with heat and humidity for August 4-5, including a thunderstorm threat August 5 as a cold front approaches. Additional unsettled weather is possible to start the August 6-7 weekend with the front exiting the region early August 6, based on current timing, but most of next weekend looks dry as well, on through the end of the period, with near to above normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 9-13)

Near to above normal temperatures with higher humidity dominant. Opportunities for showers / thunderstorms at times, but overall pattern looks fairly dry.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-30-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

A cold front will amble its way toward and across the region today and this evening. Ahead of it, we’ll have a warm to hot and fairly humid day, but instability is lacking, so the front is not likely to produce any shower or thunderstorm activity as it moves through. However, a disturbance crossing the region tonight along with a wave of low pressure forming on the front and passing just to our southeast will bring a swath of rainfall to some areas overnight / very early Saturday. The rain is most likely over far southeastern CT, southern RI, and southeastern MA. Upon its exit we begin a weekend stretch of great summer weather as high pressure moves in. This high slides offshore early next week with an increase in heat and humidity, but modestly. A cold front approaching the region on Tuesday will bring with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms after a fair weather day on Monday.

TODAY: Cloud/sun mix. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Showers likely southeastern CT, southern RI, southeastern MA. Chance of showers elsewhere. Patchy fog forming. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early morning clouds including additional showers Cape Cod. Mostly sunny thereafter. Highs 81-88. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, coolest coast. Dew point under 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-92. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 85-92. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 3-7)

High pressure will be in control of the weather for much of this time period. Slightly drier air for August 3 as a new bubble of high pressure arrives via the Great Lakes, then heat and humidity increase as high pressure shifts offshore August 4-5, including a thunderstorm threat with an approaching cold front on August 5. Shower threat may linger into the morning of August 6 before high pressure brings mainly dry weather for the balance of the first weekend of the final month of meteorological summer, based on current expected timing.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 8-12)

Near to above normal temperatures with higher humidity dominant. Opportunities for showers / thunderstorms at times, but overall pattern looks fairly dry.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-29-2022