DAYS 1-5 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

A low pressure disturbance associated with a broad but weak upper level trough will swing eastward across the Northeast during the next 2 days. For us here, this means a little bit of unsettled weather, with shower and thunderstorms opportunities with a warm frontal passage today, a trough passing through this evening, and a cold front and weak wave of low pressure on it later Friday. None of this appears poised to give our region a beneficial and widespread slug of rainfall, which is badly needed to improve the building drought, but a few areas may receive a decent shot or two of rainfall during this time. Breaking it down a little more, the warm front traversing the region from west to east today will struggle to generate too much activity, but some scattered shower activity should arrive during the midday and afternoon, and there may be a heavier downpour or thunderstorm in isolated locations. After a couple of low-humidity days, this warm front will re-introduce muggy air to our region, which will hang around through Friday. Next, a surface low pressure trough will be swinging eastward behind the warm front tonight, and its reflection will be a line of showers and thunderstorms that forms over NY State later today. This line will charge eastward, but the timing may be a little late for it to make its way all the way into and across the WHW forecast area in solid form. It may be weakening and even dissipating as it does so. But a little now-casting late today / this evening will help bring that convective episode into focus, and whether or not it will have any notable impact on the area. Friday, we will be in the muggy air with a varying amount of cloudiness, but the tendency for more cloud cover as we get later into the day. Right now, it looks like the cold front is going to try to come through our region fairly quietly, struggling to generate any showers and thunderstorms, but a couple could still pop along the boundary so we’ll have to watch for that. Better instability sits to the south of the region for this frontal passage. However, with some of the guidance hinting at a little low pressure area trying to form along this front during the last couple days, I’ve been watching to see if this was a fictional or factual thing, and it looks indeed like it may happen with pretty much all the guidance indicating that. Unfortunately, it looks like too little too late to provide beneficial rain, but a slug of showers may visit a good portion of the region during Friday night, favoring southern portions of the area, and there could be some embedded thunderstorms as well. This may linger near the South Coast until near daybreak on Saturday, but will exit quickly. High pressure will be moving in just in time for warm and dry weather for the final weekend of July with low humidity. This high will slide offshore Monday, another fair and warm day with an increase in humidity once again as we welcome the month of August.

TODAY: Variably cloudy through early afternoon with a few showers around and a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Partly sunny thereafter with a chance of a thunderstorm late afternoon favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 82-89. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy evening with a shower or thunderstorm possible. Partly cloudy overnight. Patchy fog overnight interior low elevations. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloud/sun mix. Slight chance of a late-day shower or thunderstorm favoring central to northeastern MA and southern NH. Highs 83-90. Dew point in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely later evening and overnight south of I-90 with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm to the north. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Daybreak clouds and a possible shower South Coast / Cape Cod, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, coolest coast. Dew point under 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper to middle 50s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. Dew point lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 2-6)

The general pattern is one of warm to hot weather with a flat ridge of high pressure in control, but regionally we likely see humidity and a thunderstorm chance August 2, an intrusion of drier air and possible coastal ocean wind August 3, then a more general southwesterly flow into later next week and watching for thunderstorms around August 5. Potential for another push of drier air from Canadian high pressure end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 7-11)

Very early period may have drier air before the warm to hot and more humid regime returns. There will be opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, but the overall pattern continues to look drier than average.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-28-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 27-31)

The final 5 days of July will feature a typical mid summer pattern in terms of sensible weather, but we do remain in a long term dry spell, as our disturbances have really only been able to produce brief downpours and no widespread beneficial rains in succession. This pattern definitely holds as we head to the finish line of the middle month of meteorological summer. But there are 2 days that feature the chance of some shower and thunderstorm activity. Today is not one of them, however, as high pressure provides us with a mostly sunny and seasonably warm day with low humidity. Coastal areas will experience cooling sea breezes this afternoon. Clouds will sneak in during tonight, a signal of the approach of a warm front. This front will bring lots of clouds and a round or two of showers and possible thunderstorms Thursday morning and midday, introducing a shot of high humidity to the region. A cold front will approach the region later Thursday, but won’t quite get here before the day ends. However, a pre-frontal trough can and probably will spark some thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. There will be some forecast fine tuning needed to try to pinpoint the storm potential for coverage, timing, and intensity. The cold front will cross the region during Friday, and a weak upper level trough may trigger an additional shower or thunderstorm for some areas, but most of Friday will be rain-free with warm air and lowering humidity. The final weekend of July looks fabulous with high pressure providing lots of sunshine, warm air, and comfortably dry air.

TODAY: Sun and patchy clouds. Highs 78-85, coolest in coastal locations. Dew point under 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-69. Dew point rising to the lower 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy through early afternoon with passing showers and a chance of a thunderstorm. Partly cloudy thereafter but a chance of thunderstorms late afternoon or evening, favoring areas from I-90 north. Highs 82-89. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible evening. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Lots of clouds early, then a sun/cloud mix. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon and evening. Highs 83-90. Dew point in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 57-64. Dew point lower to middle 50s. Wind W to variable under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88, coolest coast. Dew point under 60. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 1-5)

High pressure shifts offshore to start August with warm to hot and increasingly humid weather during the first few to several days of the month. Opportunities for showers and thunderstorms also increase, but no widespread beneficial rainfall is likely to occur in this pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 6-10)

Quick drier interlude is possible around the first weekend of August depending upon the ability of Canadian high pressure to intrude, before we increase humidity and shower/thunderstorm opportunities once again.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-27-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 26-30)

High pressure builds in with dry and seasonably warm weather today and Wednesday. The coolest areas will be the higher elevations of interior locations today with a westerly breeze and lower dew point air moving in. The coastal areas will be the coolest on Wednesday with sea breezes occurring. High pressure shifts offshore Thursday as a broad but weak trough slides into the Great Lakes. Its surface reflection will send a warm front through our region during the first half to two thirds of the day with variable cloudiness and perhaps a couple episodes of showers and thunderstorms (timing may need to be tweaked), and a burst of higher humidity following its passage. As the trough progresses eastward, a cold front will then cross the region during Friday, bringing the chance of a shower or thunderstorm to parts of the region (again timing is uncertain and will be narrowed as we get closer). High pressure builds in with warm and dry weather Saturday.

TODAY: Early to mid morning cloud/sun mix South Coast / RI / MA South Shore with sunshine elsewhere. Late morning on – sun/cloud mix all areas. Highs 78-85, coolest in higher elevations of southwestern NH and central MA. Dew point falling into 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 78-85, coolest in coastal areas. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-69. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy through early afternoon with passing showers and a chance of a thunderstorm. Partly cloudy thereafter. Highs 82-89. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to SW and increasing to 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog interior lower elevations. Lows 66-73. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 83-90. Dew point 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

An area of high pressure should bring dry and seasonably warm weather July 31 before shifting offshore with an increase in humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances during the first several days of August.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 5-9)

High pressure brings dry/warm weather early in the period and returns with the same later in the period while mid period is more humid with a shower and thunderstorm chance.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-26-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 25-29)

While some areas dried out in yesterday’s peak of the hot spell, the humidity is back in all areas today as a cold front approaches the region. It won’t be as hot as yesterday with the higher humidity and increased cloud cover, but it will still be a pretty uncomfortable day overall. Additionally, we will have to be weather-aware pretty much all day, from late morning onward, as a up to a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms can occur, in a trend that takes the threat from west northwest to east southeast across the region as the frontal boundary progresses into and eventually across the region. The atmosphere is quite unstable today, and even with limited sunshine we can see storms that are strong to severe. A few cells will have the ability to rotate and produce the tornado risk that we can sometimes see here as well. So not to alarm anybody about widespread destructive weather – as it won’t be that, but we are vulnerable to severe storms today and should be on the look-out for them. Be ready to move to place of safety if needed. The threat ends this evening, lastly near the South Coast, as the front finally pushes through and offshore. This will also introduce drier air and end the hot spell, with seasonably warm and dry weather Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure moves in. This high slides offshore Thursday and another cold front approaches. This is the day we will increase the heat a bit more and spike the humidity once again, and the opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will present itself once again. That front may take until sometime on Friday to push through the region, so a chance of showers and thunderstorms will have to be included in the forecast for that day as well.

TODAY: Lots of clouds, partial sun. A couple or a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms starting mid to late morning in southwestern NH to north central MA and progressing east southeastward as the day goes along. Thunderstorms can be strong to severe with hail and damaging wind gusts. Brief torrential rain in some storms can lead to low visibility and flooding. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Muggy- dew point 70-75. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, and may be variable and strong around storms.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. A lingering shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast early. Patchy fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-69. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 88-95. Dew point rising toward 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 82-89. Dew point in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

An area of high pressure should bring dry and seasonably warm weather July 30-31 before shifting offshore with an increase in humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances as August arrives.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 4-8)

Drier air arrives for early period. Humidity and a shower chance makes a come-back later in the period. Temperatures near to slightly above normal.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-25-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 24-28)

Our hot spell peaks today when many locations will see their highest temperature readings of the stretch, although I do think if a triple-digit high temp is recorded it will be in a place like the Merrimack Valley and not Boston, with a southwesterly wind blowing. Boston’s “hottest” comes with west or northwest wind and lower dew point air than we will have today. But that’s statistics & meteorology talking – either way, it’s gonna be a hot day around the region with only some relief along the South Coast where that southwest wind is coming off ocean water. The humidity spike comes ahead of a cold front which will not be close enough to send any showers and storms into our region today, but will do so on Monday as it passes through. Right now, I’m leaning toward a fair amount of cloudiness and some remnant showers (from today’s t-storms further west) in the morning. This may help prevent many areas from reaching or exceeding 90 degrees, although it will be quite humid so it’s going to feel uncomfortable anyway. Our best shot at a broken to solid line of showers and thunderstorms comes during the afternoon hours as the front nears. Right now I look at an early to mid afternoon timing for southwestern NH and north central MA, progressing southeastward so that the southeastern MA and RI would see the activity later in the afternoon possibly lingering into early evening there if there are any follow-up showers/storms, which are indeed possible until the front clears the area. I can fine-tune this a bit more for tomorrow’s post. Regardless of storm details, drier air does arrive behind that front during the course of Monday night and will be with us for Tuesday and Wednesday, along with more seasonably warm weather instead of the heat we now have. On Thursday though, the heat and humidity make a one-day come-back ahead of another cold front, which brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region once again.

TODAY: Hazy sun. Highs 92-99, hottest Merrimack Valley, and 85-92 South Coast. Very humid – dew point lower to middle 70s. Wind SW to SSW 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A stray shower or thunderstorm may reach southwestern NH and central MA this evening. Patchy fog forming overnight in interior lower elevations. Lows 72-79, warmest in urban areas. Oppressive humidity – dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Passing showers possible during the morning. Showers/thunderstorms likely one or two times in the afternoon to early evening from northwest to southeast. Highs 85-92 except cooler South Coast. Muggy – dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts, shifting to W from northwest to southeast by late day / evening.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. A lingering shower or thunderstorm possible South Coast early. Patchy fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-69. Dew point rising toward 60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 88-95. Dew point rising toward 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

An area of high pressure should bring dry and seasonably warm weather July 29-31 before shifting offshore with an increase in humidity and shower/thunderstorm chances as August arrives.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 3-7)

Higher heat/humidity including a shower/thunderstorm chance early period, followed by mid-period drying and more seasonable warmth. Humidity may make a come-back before the end of the period along with a shower chance.

C-19 CHAT POST – 7-24-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 23-27)

A hot weekend is ours. No way around that, so find ways to stay cool if you can! The humidity will be a factor as well, less so today for much of the region with readings under 70, but some 70+ readings are present near the South Coast, and these will spread northward across most of the region for Sunday. You’ve heard talk of high temps near 100 for some places Sunday. While the temps may certainly get way into the 90s, a place like Boston is not likely to reach the century mark with a higher dew point and a wind blowing from the south and southwest, as is expected. The metro area gets its hottest weather when the dew point is lower and the wind is more west or even west northwest, so while the wind direction may prevent the higher temperature reading, it will help bring in the oppressive humidity. So either way you look at it, it’s going to be a hot weekend, though we may get through it without breaking any record temperatures – though a few may be challenged Sunday. I also think the thunderstorm threat will be absent as we are under the influence of weak high pressure and the warmer atmosphere aloft is a stabilizing influence. Things start to change later Sunday night and especially Monday as we bring a cold front into the region. Right now, the timing of this frontal boundary remains a little in question, and knowing this will help determine when thunderstorm threats are and how many rounds of them we may see. Keep in mind as you see the detailed forecast for that day that fine-tuning will be done and more detail added during the next couple days. Whether or not the 90+ temperatures are reached on Monday will depend on timing of front and amount of cloud cover. So Boston is a lock for a 6-day heatwave (through Sunday) as I see it, but not necessarily for a 7-day. Their record is 9 days in 1912, at which time the readings were taken in the city and not the current airport location. The airport location has recorded a few 8-day heatwaves (1944, 1994, and 2002). So those records are safe, because Tuesday’s temperatures (and dew points) will be down considerably behind that front as high pressure moves in with great summer weather as we head toward the middle of next week.

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 90-97, cooler South Coast. Dew point ranging from near 60 southern NH and northern MA to around 70 at the South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point middle 60s southern NH and northeastern MA to around 70 elsewhere. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 92-99, hottest in the Merrimack Valley region, cooler locations South Coast. Dew point lower to middle 70s, highest South Coast. Wind SW to SSW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly late at night and favoring areas west and north of Boston. Patchy fog. Lows 72-79. Dew point 70+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring morning to mid afternoon hours. Highs 85-92, cooler South Coast. Dew point 70+. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point falling through 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 60-67. Dew point 50s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 81-88. Dew point 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with light coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

Heat and humidity return for July 28 along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms with the approach and passage of a cold front. An area of high pressure should bring dry and seasonably warm weather July 29 on with some increase in humidity toward the end of the period as the high center sets up to the south of New England.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 2-6)

Higher humidity spike early in the period including a chance of showers and thunderstorms, then drier air and seasonably warm weather following.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-23-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 22-26)

Hot weather will continue through the weekend, but today and Saturday will have lower humidity than the sultry spike we experienced yesterday. While only limited locations saw thunderstorm activity yesterday afternoon and evening, you didn’t have to see one of those to get the benefit of the lower dew point air the front causing them has delivered to the region. Qualification: This is not a push of refreshing dry air from Canada, but it’s definitely less humid than yesterday, so it will be a slightly drier heat really. But that’s something, if you are not a fan of the higher humidity. Make the most of it? These two days will also feature fair weather as high pressure dominates, but just a tiny little atmospheric disturbance will be drifting across the region this evening, and that may be enough to allow a couple isolated showers and thunderstorms to at least approach the western reaches of the WHW forecast area in CT, MA, and southwestern NH, late this afternoon or this evening (reflected in the forecast below as a slight chance of a brief evening shower or storm). The humidity makes a come-back Sunday, and that will also be our hottest day of the stretch, as it is clearly obvious now that the next approaching front will not be quick enough to send cloudiness into the region sooner. So expect a Sunday scorcher – no way around it other than the slightly cooler air on South Coast beaches and especially Cape Cod due to the southwesterly wind blowing across ocean water before reaching these areas. The heat breaks for Monday, although the humidity will be slow to exit, as a cold front ambles its way across the region. This enables showers and thunderstorms to develop and be around for a good portion of the day, but I’m not expecting a widespread beneficial rain – just an unsettled day until the frontal boundary as cleared the region. Right now I expect this will happen at some point by mid to late afternoon, but I may have to tweak that timing on future forecast updates. Regardless, lower dew point and seasonably warm air will be ours by Tuesday.

TODAY: Sun with some passing clouds at times. An isolated shower or a thunderstorm is possible far north and west of Boston later in the day. Highs 88-95. Dew point middle to lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, few higher gusts at times.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening with a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in southern NH, central MA, and far eastern CT. Mostly clear overnight. Lows 65-72. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 90-97. Dew point 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A late-day thunderstorm possible southwestern NH and central MA. Highs 92-99, cooler South Coast. Dew point middle 60s to near 70, highest near the south coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring morning to mid afternoon hours. Highs 81-88. Dew point near 70. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog mainly interior lower elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point falling into 60s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-89. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 27-31)

High pressure brings dry and seasonably warm weather 27. Heat/humidity returns with a chance of showers/t-storms on July 28. Another area of high pressure brings dry/warm weather for July 29-31, based on best guess at timing of systems at this point.

DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 1-5)

Higher humidity spike early in the period including a chance of showers and thunderstorms, then drier air and seasonably warm weather following.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-22-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 21-25)

The July hot spell continues and as far as “heatwave” by definition, those that started to build one Tuesday should see it become official today as I think most of the region goes 90+ for temperature today. There will be the usual exceptions (parts of Cape Cod and the Islands, and maybe a few portions of the irregular coastline), but the general idea is we get to heatwave status today and then keep it going at least through Saturday. Our wildcard day is Sunday, which has the potential to be the hottest day based on current expecting timing of an approaching front and its cloudiness, because despite the higher heat potential, if that system ended up arriving more quickly than expected, parts of our area could still end up falling short of 90. Either way, that system should break the heatwave by Monday for at least most areas. But before we get there, we have a bit of a thunderstorm threat for today. This will be triggered by an approaching cold front, fairly weak in terms of the fact it won’t break our heat, but it will take the humidity, which spikes today, down a few notches for the end of the week. While any time you have a cold front slicing into a hot / humid air mass you have to be on the look-out for storms, I don’t think today’s activity will end up producing a sweeping line that gets everybody, but rather a cluster or two (maybe line segments) of storms that form to our west and northwest, then make their way into portions of the WHW forecast area, especially southern NH and central to northeastern MA, later in the day and for part of this evening. But as you go southeast, the support for storms will be more lacking, and I don’t think they will really survive the trip to impact many areas south of I-90 and especially toward the eastern coastal locations from near Boston southward. Something to keep an eye on of course, because thunderstorms can often have “a mind of their own” and defy what our short range guidance tells us they are going to do, but this is my general thinking and we will monitor the activity later today to see what the result ends up being. For caution, the two things to be concerned about today are protecting yourself from the heat (limit outdoor time if possible, and stay hydrated!) and watch for the late-day storm threat. We’ll have a warm and muggy night tonight, even areas that would get some temporary cooling from a storm, but slightly drier air will flow in overnight / early Friday behind that weak front, and even though it will be a hot day on Friday again, the dew point, which is in the lower 70s for many of us today, will be back under 70 and maybe even down to the lower and middle 60s for Friday. Over the weekend, we do stay hot, and the humidity remains barely manageable Saturday but may spike Sunday ahead of the next approaching front. So combined with the higher heat potential, Sunday may be the most dangerous day, heat-wise, of this stretch. I’ll assess the thunderstorm threat for Sunday-Monday as we get closer to that time, but for now it looks like we get through Sunday daytime without much of anything, then will have to watch for some activity Sunday night and the first half of Monday before the front sweeps through. Cloud cover and incoming “cooler” air should prevent 90s from occurring Monday as it stands now, breaking the heatwave.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms later afternoon / evening favoring southern NH and northern MA. Any storms can be locally severe with hail and wind damage. Highs 88-95. Dew point lower 70s. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH, can be variable, strong, and gusty near any storms.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then clearing. Lows 66-73. Dew point falling into 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 88-95. Dew point 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, a few higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 90-97. Dew point 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Possible late-day showers and thunderstorms favoring western areas. Highs 92-99, cooler South Coast. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 70-77. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms, favoring morning-midday hours. Highs 81-88. Dew point near 70. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 26-30)

High pressure brings dry and seasonably warm weather July 26-27. Heat/humidity returns with a chance of showers/t-storms on July 28. Another area of high pressure brings dry/warm weather for July 29-30. Confidence on this timing is not high at this point, but this is a best-guess.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 31 – AUGUST 4)

Typical mid summer pattern. Warm to hot, a few shower/t-storm chances, rain-free most of time.