C-19 Chat Post – 7-21-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 20-24)

It’s the climatological hottest time of the year, and we’ll be talking about heat, right on schedule. For many locations, a solid heatwave is underway. Several locations, especially coastal areas, may escape it with a day or two during the next 5 failing to reach 90. Our saving grace is that the dew point, while high enough to make it “humid”, will stay below the threshold of “oppressive” most of the time, only reaching it Thursday and later Sunday as it looks now. Much of the other time, we have enough air mixing going on to bring drier air down from aloft via the down-slope effect so that most of if not all of the WHW forecast area keeps dew points below 70, and in the case of Friday, behind a cold front, down around 60. That cold front represents our only real chance of any rainfall during the next few days, in the form of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Some of these can be strong to locally severe, but right now the coverage looks as if it may be limited. This will be monitored and fine-tuned during the next 48+ hours. The next shot of some shower and thunderstorm activity would be later Sunday with the approach of another front.

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 88-95. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches interior low elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mid afternoon on, especially west of I-95. Highs 87-94. Dew point rising to lower 70s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then clearing. Lows 63-70. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 85-92. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 88-95. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy ground fog. Lows 68-75. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Possible afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Highs 86-94. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 25-29)

Cold front passes with a chance of showers/thunderstorms early July 25, then drying and seasonably warm weather later July 25 through July 27. Increasing heat and humidity later in the period along with a chance of showers and thunderstorms by the end of the period, projecting timing of features several days in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 30 – AUGUST 3)

A similar pattern overall with mostly above normal temperatures and limited rainfall opportunities.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-20-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 19-23)

The first, and so far only, stretch of hot weather this summer begins today as high pressure takes up residence to our south and pumps Midwestern heat into our region. While this is not a classic upper air set-up we see for a lot of our hot episodes, the central US has been hot for quite a while and the source region of our incoming air during this time will be more than adequate for a supply. The pattern having a southwesterly air flow and keeping us slightly in a mean trough position also means that we’ll be able to mix the atmosphere up more, which includes transporting drying air via the downsloping effect from the mountains to our west, keeping dew points from reaching what they may have if we were in a Bermuda High set-up. That doesn’t mean we won’t have our episodes of higher humidity. It just won’t persist. So it will be hotter today and definitely hot Wednesday and Thursday, with highest humidity of the 3 days being Thursday, just ahead of a cold front. This front brings the only shot of showers and thunderstorms for the WHW forecast area during this 5 day period, as slightly drier air follows that and the chance of any convective activity vanishes late this week (Friday-Saturday).

TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 85-92. Dew point lower to middle 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 65-72. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 87-94. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches interior low elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the day. Highs 87-94. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then clearing. Lows 63-70. Dew point falling to near 60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 85-92. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 65-72. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 86-93. Dew point lower 60s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 24-28)

A fairly typical summer pattern will dominate our weather during this time. We will see a couple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, favoring later July 24 to early July 25 and sometime later in the period too. Temperatures above normal. Highest humidity July 24 and later in the period, lower humidity episode between.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 29 – AUGUST 2)

A similar pattern overall with mostly above normal temperatures and limited rainfall opportunities.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-19-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 18-22)

We sit about half way through meteorological summer, but are only about 1/3 of the way into “actual summer”, so either way you look at it, we have a lot of summer ahead of us. Up to this point, hot weather has been largely absent. The period from mid June to mid July ran slightly below normal in temperature, and our rainfall deficit continues with a building drought. During this week, we’ll see more heat than we’ve seen so far, and while we have a couple unsettled days in the forecast, we won’t be seeing any drought-busting rainfall. In fact, I full expect the drought to continue to build with the limited rainfall chances and the increase in the heat. We start today with a low pressure area approaching the region, the center of which will pass to our north tonight. This system will push a warm front across the area during this afternoon with a round of showers (most widespread to the northwest of the WHW forecast area though), and the cold front coming along tonight will produce a round or two of showers and possible thunderstorms. We’ll have a spike of high humidity while we’re in the warm sector of this system, but it will really only be with us for a few hours. Drier air settles in behind the cold front Tuesday, but “cold front” is relative, as the air mass behind this system is actually warmer than the one ahead of it, so it’ll be quite a warm day, but with fair weather dominating as high pressure approaches the region. Many times over the last several weeks when a system like this would go by, we’d get a push of cooler air from Canada. The pattern this week is not going to be like that, and our air will be coming from a hotter source region. High pressure will continue to control the weather Wednesday with very warm to hot conditions but only moderate humidity, and no threat of rain. The high will push offshore early Thursday when a warm front quietly goes through the region, and that will be the day we combine heat with higher humidity, ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will trigger some shower and thunderstorm activity during the afternoon and evening as it approaches and passes by the region. As for coverage and intensity of those, we’ll have to keep an eye on it and detail it as it gets closer. Behind this system, the very warm weather remains but the humidity drops off for Friday, with fair weather expected.

TODAY: Clouding over this morning. Cloudy with a round of rain and possible embedded heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms first half of afternoon. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers possible second half of afternoon / early evening. Highs 77-84. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts this afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy through late evening and early overnight with showers and thunderstorms including areas of fog. Greatest chance of thunderstorms in central Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire. Any storms could be locally strong to severe. Breaking clouds / clearing west to east toward dawn. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 70 evening, falling toward 60 overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts above 20 MPH and up to 30 MPH in some portions of the South Coast as well as near any storms, shifting to W from west to east overnight.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 85-92. Dew point upper 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 64-71. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 87-94. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches interior low elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the day. Highs 87-94. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then clearing. Lows 63-70. Dew point falling to 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 85-92. Dew point 50s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 23-27)

A fairly typical summer pattern will dominate our weather during this time. We will see a couple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms, favoring later July 24 to early July 25 and sometime later in the period too. It’s difficult to time such opportunities this far in advance so the usual fine-tuning will take place. Expect the temperature to average near to above normal. Higher humidity at times, but not likely for the entire period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 28 – AUGUST 1)

A similar pattern overall, but may see a little more dry air push from Canada at some point.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-18-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 17-21)

The big picture: Only 2 unsettled days out of the next 5 (maybe more), and introducing more heat into the mix means the drought likely expands more quickly in the days ahead, even with a couple threats of heavy downpours. The day-to-day picture: Today will generally be a great summer day, although patchy clouds are in some areas early and mostly-fair-weather clouds will pop up during the day, but we won’t have that sun-filtering high cloud shield today. Humidity will be on the rise, but not rapidly, although those sensitive will notice it. Like yesterday, there is the tiniest chance regionwide of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm from a couple of the developing cumulus clouds today, but in general this is a fair weather day for our region, extending through tonight as well. Monday is the first of the two aforementioned unsettled days, as a low pressure disturbance will be moving eastward across the Northeast. We first see a round of showers with a warm front during midday and part of the afternoon, followed by a batch of showers and thunderstorms with the system’s cold front in the evening. Initially, some of our guidance painted this as a widespread moderate to heavy rain event lasting many hours, but as you have been cautioned, this is often the type of system that is over-forecast by guidance, and when it gets here, it ends up being a shorter-duration rain event, as you see in this case, with just a couple rounds of showers and storms, but the threat of some downpours with heavy rainfall. But “heavy rain” does not really mean beneficial rain, and in this case any drought relief brought by this system will be quite limited. It’s short-duration, and will be followed by two dry and rather warm to hot days Tuesday and Wednesday. Unlike many previous events, we don’t get a push of cooler/dry air from Canada behind the disturbance, but our air will come from a hotter source region in the middle of the US, so we’ll feel the heat of July coming on into the region. Tuesday’s and Wednesday’s weather is expected to be rain-free regionwide. Thursday, our heat stays with us and humidity spikes back up ahead of a cold front, which brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms again. The coverage, intensity, and timing of this activity is yet to be determined, and will depend on specifics which I can nail down over the next few days.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Slight chance of an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. Highs 83-90. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny early, otherwise mostly cloudy. Showers likely midday through mid afternoon. Highs 77-84. Muggy – dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely evening. Partly cloudy overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point falling slowly through 60s.Wind SW up to 10 MPH shifting to W, but winds can be variable and gusty near any storms.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 84-91. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 87-94. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Fog patches interior low elevations. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms especially afternoon. Highs 87-94. Dew point near 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 22-26)

Less humid, rain-free but still very warm to hot weather July 22-23 as high pressure dominates. Shower and thunderstorm threat increases July 24 to early July 25 as a trough and frontal system move across the region before slightly drier but still very warm weather dominates the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 27-31)

July should come down its home stretch in a pattern that transitions from warm to hot and humid with a shower and thunderstorm threat early in the period to drier but warm weather with high pressure dominating later in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-17-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)

This weekend will give us not only very nice summer weather (not perfect) but also another lesson on the limitations of even our shorter-range guidance. As recently as yesterday, forecasts both here and around media called for a mostly sunny sky today, and while the sun will shine often today, it will also be filtered and dimmed quite often by a large shield of high cloudiness crossing our sky, born of convective activity in the Midwest. Also, some lower level moisture helped a bank of broken lower clouds form near the South Coast, which will dissipate as the morning goes on. But also, we have a little previously-not-really-detected-by-guidance disturbance that has to cross the region during the day today, and you’ll see evidence of that by cumulus clouds building up this morning into part of the afternoon underneath the high cloud shield. One or two of these clouds may grow large enough to release isolated showers. I would certainly not cancel any outdoor plans over this minor threat, but I would keep an eye on the sky just in case. That disturbance is gone later today and yet another one crosses the region tonight, keep the sky more cloud-filled than clear, and once again a spot shower can’t be ruled out, but it’s unlikely that any specific location will see one. The other change to the short term forecast is the ability to remove the shower and thunderstorm threat from the daytime and evening hours of Sunday – a day which will feature brighter sun than today, though still some clouds popping up to blot it out at times as well. Today’s humidity levels will be low enough to be deemed comfortable, but tomorrow’s dew point heads into higher territory, which will be noticeable. However, the more significant spike in humidity comes during Monday, especially in the afternoon, when a warm front crosses the region, preceded by a round of showers. Then a cold front approaches later in the day into the evening when a round of showers and thunderstorms is most likely. Advertisements of a widespread soaking rainfall with that system are probably over-selling the system’s capability to produce that. Now keeping in mind that even the short range guidance can struggle with these details, the tendency for quite some time now has been for the guidance to over-forecast the precipitation a few days out only to come back to reality as we get closer. That trend seems to be underway now, and while some heavy rainfall is certainly a strong possibility in the form of downpours / t-storms, a widespread beneficial rainfall would be one that would occur at a slower rate over a longer time, and I don’t see that as likely with that particular system. Behind it, we stay warm for Tuesday with a lowering of humidity and the return of fair weather after the chance of an early-in-the-day shower. A weak area of high pressure to the south of the region will provide fair weather into Wednesday as well, but since behind Monday’s system we’re not getting a shot of cooler/dry Canadian air that takes longer to kick out and modify, we’ll already be very warm to hot with more humid conditions again by midweek. At day 5, I can’t be confident of calling for a pop up air mass shower or thunderstorm Wednesday, but I won’t rule it out.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Very slight chance of a passing shower midday to mid afternoon, favoring central and northeastern MA and southern NH. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 61-68. Dew point near 60. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point rising to middle to upper 60s. Wind S-SW up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle to upper 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely midday through mid afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms likely late afternoon or evening from west to east. Highs 78-85. Dew point upper 60s rising to lower 70s. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point falling slowly through 60s.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 63-70. Dew point near 60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 86-93. Dew point rising through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)

Warm to hot weather July 21-22 with highest humidity and greatest chance of thunderstorms July 21 as a disturbance passes just to the north and drags a frontal boundary across the region, then a reduced storm chance July 22. Weak high pressure should keep shower and storm chances limited while we are warm to hot and have moderate humidity for the July 23-24 weekend and higher humidity again to end the period. This is not the classic Bermuda High set-up though as high pressure in the western Atlantic is to be weaker than one sitting over the east central US sending the hotter weather our way from the west southwest. We’ll actually find ourselves in a mean trough position here, albeit weak, so we end up with the warmth and see Canadian air masses unable to enter the region for a while.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)

Unsettled weather episodes should be brief around the time of air mass changes, which will not be dramatic, as the overall pattern will be controlled by high pressure and a westerly to southwesterly air flow with mostly rain-free weather and near to above normal temperatures. We may get a push of drier air from Canada before the end of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-16-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 15-19)

High pressure brings great summer weather to the region through Saturday with a fair amount of sun both today and Saturday, manageable humidity, and seasonably warm air. The high slides offshore and the humidity increases on Sunday, as do the clouds and eventually the threat of a shower or thunderstorm, but most of that day looks rain-free so keep your outdoor plans and just be ready to react to any showers or storms that might occur. The trough responsible for the shower and storm threat later Sunday will be moving across the region Monday, making that an unsettled, muggy, warm day with showers and thunderstorms a little more likely, but this system should exit Tuesday with a return to dry but still warm weather, along with somewhat lower humidity.

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon. Highs 83-90. Dew point rising into and through 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers, possibly thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog. Lows 62-69. Dew point falling through 60s.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 83-90. Dew point near 60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 20-24)

Very warm to hot and more humid July 20-22. Shower and thunderstorm opportunities greatest July 21-22 with a southwesterly air flow dominating the region. High pressure from Canada via the Great Lakes brings warm but less humid weather to the region later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 25-29)

Unsettled weather episodes should be brief around the time of air mass changes, which will not be dramatic, as the overall pattern will be controlled by high pressure and a westerly to southwesterly air flow with mostly rain-free weather and near to above normal temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-15-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JULY 14-18)

A round of showers and thunderstorms visited many areas in northern MA and southern NH overnight. We’ll remain a little bit unsettled today as we have a frontal boundary sitting over the region (Seacoast NH through eastern MA and RI) and this will get a little kick from a developing ocean breeze midday into afternoon. This means the best chance of showers and a few heavier thunderstorms developing will be in this area of convergence (in this case, air arriving from two different directions, meeting, and rising). The I-95 corridor from Seacoast NH through eastern MA to RI and southeastern CT will be most vulnerable for this activity from 1 to 6 p.m. before it dissipates. So while I would not cancel any outdoor plans in these areas today, be weather-aware. High pressure begins to move toward the region via the Great Lakes tonight and this high advances in during Friday and into Saturday with some wonderful summer weather for our region. This is great news for outdoor plans but not great news for our expanding drought, which isn’t really helped by these occasional, regional, short-lived bursts of rainfall. High pressure slides offshore by Sunday and we see a bit more heat and humidity sneak in ahead of an approaching trough and frontal system, set to bring the chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the region for Sunday night and Monday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm, favoring the I-95 corridor during the afternoon starting at about 1 p.m.. Highs 78-85. Dew point 60s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of an early evening shower. Patchy fog. Lows 58-65. Dew point upper 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 78-85, coolest coast. Dew point middle 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-65. Dew point middle 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87, coolest coast. Dew point upper 50s. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 61-68. Dew point upper 50s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. A shower or thunderstorm possible southwestern NH and central MA by evening. Highs 83-90. Dew point rising into 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers, possibly thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Lows 65-72. Dew point middle 60s. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 83-90. Dew point upper 60s. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JULY 19-23)

Briefly lower humidity and seasonably warm weather arriving during July 19 and July 20 before the humidity increases, it remains warm, and the chance of showers and thunderstorms returns at times during July 21-22 as a general southwesterly air flow dominates. It may dry out again by July 23.

DAYS 11-15 (JULY 24-28)

Transition back toward higher humidity may be marked by unsettled weather sometime in the July 24-25 time frame. Typical July weather with warmth and a daily chance of a shower or thunderstorm later in the period, obviously far too soon to detail.

C-19 Chat Post – 7-14-2022