C-19 Chat Post – 6-21-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 20-24)

We’re in the last 24 hours of astronomical spring, with the summer solstice occurring at 5:13 a.m. Tuesday, but don’t think that just because the calendar officially says “summer” that we will immediately experience full summer weather. It’s still going to be a struggle to get us there as our weather pattern recently, while not excessively wet, has certainly not been all that warm either, especially during this past weekend when we had some anomalous chill. But we do get rid of that somewhat right away as we start the new week. Today will be a bright and milder day, governed by high pressure, but light wind will allow a sea breeze so the coast will be cooler. A warm front will approach from the west Tuesday and Wednesday, but never quite get here. It will result in some areas of clouds at times, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some onshore flow may add enough low level moisture from some lower clouds and patchy fog Tuesday night and early Wednesday as well, but at this point I don’t think any precipitation will occur, even though the front gets rather close Wednesday. By Wednesday night and into Thursday, however, things change a little. Although the frontal boundary gets pulled back to the south and west somewhat, a low pressure area is expected to develop offshore and should be in a position to deliver some rain to us during that time frame. This low will actually be triggered by another block-up in the atmosphere and a retrogression (westward movement) of the upper low that plagued us over the weekend. But this time it won’t hang around nearly as long, and it should be back on the move to the east by Friday, with improvement here. To be honest, while people tend to frown upon wet weather as we get to summer, any ran we can squeeze out of the pattern is good, as we continue to run a deficit for the year and experience longer term abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions across a fair amount of the WHW forecast area.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 65-70 coast, 70-75 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 48-55. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: More sun than clouds. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 inland. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: More clouds than sun. Highs 68-73 coast, 73-78 inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain developing. Lows 56-63. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Rain ends, clouds break, patchy fog lingers. Lows 55-62. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 25-29)

June 25-26 weekend looks seasonably warm and a little more humid with a south to southwest air flow. We may see a couple showers and thunderstorms with the increased moisture combined with sun’s heating, but overall it looks like a rain-free weekend. A frontal system from the west brings a better opportunity for showers/thunderstorms about June 27 possibly into June 28 before a push of drier and slightly cooler air for later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 30 – JULY 4)

Signs of a dry and seasonably warm to very warm stretch of weather for the end of June and beginning of July with high pressure in control.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-20-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 19-23)

A Sunday morning that feels more like April than June, just a few days before the summer solstice – but that is what we have, and you can thank a cold pool sitting over there region, the eastern member of an omega block (low-high-low). We had some pretty decent coverage of rain overnight in eastern areas, where it was most needed. While this helps a little, it won’t be followed by any more beneficial rainfall any time soon, so we’ll likely remain in the “abnormally dry” to “moderate drought” in a good portion of the WHW forecast area as we move into late June. In the more immediate future, we will have a very cool day today, but the wet weather that started it off will be on its way out, so we’ll just be contending with lots of clouds and a chilly breeze. The clouds finally get out of here during tonight. On the larger scale, the blocking pattern we’re seeing now will relax somewhat and transition to more of a zonal flow pattern during the coming days. While this is ongoing the overall configuration of that pattern will still feature a ridge of high pressure in the central US and a downstream northwesterly tilt to the air flow here. The trend will be to warm up into midweek, but it will be slow. We’ll have to contend with one disturbance that will be moving along the flow but is also instrumental in trying to get the warmer air here, so for timing right now I think a shower threat will exist later on Tuesday (mostly at night). We may have a bit of a set-back in temperature around Thursday as the boundary gets pulled back to the southwest and a ripple of low pressure brings a little more unsettled weather for that day…

TODAY: Early showers exit eastern areas, otherwise lots of clouds and limited sun. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusts up to 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 55-62. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 24-28)

We still may see a boundary struggling to get through the region to start the period, which may begin unsettled. Leaning toward a warmer and more humid June 25-26 weekend but this may come with at least the chance of a few showers and thunderstorms. Greater chance of showers/storms around June 27 before drier/cooler air arrives late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 29 – JULY 3)

The trend for this period looks like it wants to put high pressure over to just south of New England with a warming, mostly dry pattern. But I cannot say with high confidence this is how it will turn out quite yet.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-19-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 18-22)

The final weekend of astronomical spring will feel more like one that would normally occur about midway through the season. The large scale weather pattern across the US is in the form of the classic omega block (trough West, ridge middle US, trough East – centered right here over New England. And the trough here in our neighborhood brings with it an anomalously chilly pool of cold air with it aloft and resultant very cool air mass from eastern Canada that will be with us all weekend. In fact, despite establishing itself in the early morning hours today, it will be further reinforced tonight and Sunday. We’ll see limited sunshine both today and Sunday. Fortunately (as far as outdoor plans go) the chance of wet weather is limited to just a few hours of scattered showers favoring southeastern NH and eastern MA later tonight to early Sunday morning. From an agricultural / water supply standpoint, it’s unfortunate that we won’t be able to squeeze out more rain from this pattern, because we remain in deficit and still are in need of it. Looking ahead to the early part of the coming week, we see a relaxation of the blocking pattern and the evolution of a more zonal (west to east) flow. This allows temperatures to moderate as the pattern remains fairly dry. This pattern does not allow any significant heat to build in, however.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 65-72. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers southeastern NH and eastern MA, possibly RI as well, late evening and overnight. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered showers eastern MA early. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind WSW up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 77-84. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 23-27)

A general northwesterly air flow pattern at upper levels will be the rule again. A warm front tries to press through the region early in the period, but instead of doing so cleanly, it may struggle, keeping even warmer air from arriving, and possibly bringing the opportunity for at least some rainfall. We should break into somewhat warmer and mainly fair weather toward the June 25-27 period but this is a low confidence forecast at this time.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 28 – JULY 2)

Early period cool-down via Canada, mid to late period warm-up due to more high pressure dominating. Continued low confidence on this outlook.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-18-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 17-21)

We have a pretty decent change in our weather to take place in our weather in the next couple of days. First, a taste of summer today as we find ourselves briefly on the northeastern corner of a very warm air mass. But before we can heat up that much, a cold front will charge across the region from northwest to southeast during the first half of the afternoon. The timing of this front, and some limiting factors in the atmosphere, means that shower and thunderstorm activity along it will not reach its full potential. However, a brief heavy storm may visit some locations, favoring the NH Seacoast to eastern CT eastward. There may be a quick isolated follow up shower or storm in a few locations, but for the most part it looks like that one flip-of-a-coin chance from midday to mid afternoon from northwest to southeast, and then the storm chance and the warm up are done deals. Much cooler and dry air moves into the region tonight behind the front. Now, my weekend optimism has taken a big hit in the last 24 hours as it appears the position of upper level low pressure will be a little closer than I was thinking. This results in more cloudiness from a cold pool aloft both Saturday and Sunday, and a more direct delivery of anomalously cool air, so I will drop the forecast temperatures accordingly. I do think our rain chances will be limited to a couple opportunities for showers, mainly late evening to overnight Saturday night to early Sunday, and maybe again at some point during the day Sunday, so most outdoor plans can go ahead, but don’t expect them to take place with sunny and warm conditions. Monday and Tuesday, upper level low pressure departs as the temporarily blocked pattern opens up to a more westerly flow, and we see moderation in temperature and generally fair weather here for early next week. Although by Tuesday we may see cloudiness from passing storm complexes to our west again, a pattern somewhat similar to our recent one.

TODAY: Lots of clouds and limited areas of sunshine early morning. Increasing sun mid through late morning. A band of cloudiness with possible showers and some heavier thunderstorms northwest to southeast across there region during the first half of the afternoon, may linger in southeastern MA and RI a little longer before the day ends with sun again. Highs 81-88, a bit cooler Cape Cod and immediate South Coast. Humid through early afternoon with dew points above 60, then drying out. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Sunny early, then lots of clouds. Highs 67-74. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers late evening and overnight. Lows 50-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers favoring eastern areas. Highs 58-65. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 46-53. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Wind W under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 22-26)

A general northwesterly air flow pattern at upper levels will be the rule again. Somewhere in the June 22-23 time frame we may see a warm front / cold front combo with a little bit of unsettled weather. A mid period disturbance may bring brief rainfall before we warm up to seasonable levels (low confidence this far out) for the June 25-26 weekend with mostly fair weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 27 – JULY 1)

Early period cool-down via Canada, later period warm-up due to more high pressure dominating. Early call, low confidence on this outlook.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-17-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 16-20)

An area of high pressure over our region shifts offshore today. A broad area of low pressure will be moving eastward to our north later today through Friday, first dragging a warm front toward and through the region tonight, followed by a cold front on Friday. The cloudiness that is thickest in western portions of the WHW forecast area early this morning is the result of a thunderstorm complex passing to our west, moving to the southeast in the northwest flow pattern we’ve been in. This complex was fairly well-forecast by the short range guidance, maybe just a little later timing than forecast, but these things can be a bane of forecasters as they can be very unpredictable in location and timing / movement. Anyway, despite some cloudiness from it, this particular cluster will not bother the region as it heads southeastward, getting only as close as western CT and western to central Long Island before heading seaward. The warm front will generate some showers and perhaps a thunderstorm across our area during tonight, but for most of us this doesn’t look like a very heavy rainfall event. The cold front on Friday will have some heat and humidity to work with but also some limiting factors in the atmosphere to battle, so the showers and storms generated by it may be limited, with best shot at a quick and potentially strong storm being in the southeastern half of the WHW region from the NH Seacoast southwestward to eastern CT and eastward from there. This would occur over a few hour’s time on Friday afternoon but in any one location a shower or storm would be rather brief. Friday will be the “hottest” day we’ve had in a while, not exactly burning it up by any stretch, but it will feel pretty toasty in comparison to recent moderate temperatures. Don’t get used to that warmth though, because we have a good shot of cool air on the way for this weekend. This will take place as low pressure sits and spins east of New England for a couple days, and combines with high pressure to the west of New England for a Canadian delivery. The price to pay will be some gusty wind at times, and the chance of a couple showers popping up. It’s hard to say where and when any showers will occur, but right now I lean toward Sunday being the better chance and eastern areas being the highest chance. But again don’t cancel any outdoor plans over the weekend. Simply keep an eye on the weather. Some moderation is due by Monday with a narrow area of high pressure bringing us fair weather.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, S 10-20 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Humid – dew point 60+. Lows 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible in the afternoon from northwest to southeast across the region. Any thunderstorms may be strong. Humid morning – dew point 60+, then lowering humidity late-day. Highs 81-88. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated showers possible. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers favoring eastern areas. Highs 73-80. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 76-83, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 21-25)

The general northwesterly flow pattern continues across the northeast with limited rain chances and near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 26-30)

No big changes to start but a little more high pressure to the south may allow more warming later in the period.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-16-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 15-19)

A back-door cold front is completing its trek across the region from northeast to southwest early this morning and today will be another fair weather day, but cooler than yesterday as our air which was modified continental polar is now maritime polar and has spent time over cool water before reaching us. There are some patchy stratus clouds that have also drifted in from the ocean but those will dissipate as the sun climbs higher, impacting mostly eastern coastal areas until about mid morning. High pressure slips offshore tonight and Thursday and a warm front approaches from the southwest. This front will increase the clouds in the region but the day should be rain-free. It is at night when the front brings the chance of some shower activity along with a possible thunderstorm, mainly overnight / early hours of Friday. During Friday, we will briefly find ourselves in the much warmer to hotter air mass that resides largely in the Midwest, Plains, and Southwest at this time, but this won’t last long. A cold front will sweep through between late morning and mid afternoon from northwest to southwest. This front will likely trigger showers and thunderstorms, but the greatest coverage of these and the strongest storms may occur over southeastern MA and RI due to the timing of the front. Over the weekend, we’ll have a drier and cooler air mass in place, but upper level low pressure centered just to our east means that we will have at least some clouds at times, and the chance exists for a pop up shower each weekend day, but favoring Saturday.

TODAY: Morning clouds, especially near the eastern coastal areas of MA, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH morning, E up to 10 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Humid – dew point 60+. Lows 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible late morning through mid afternoon from northwest to southeast across the region. Any thunderstorms may be strong. Humid morning – dew point 60+, then lowering humidity. Highs 81-88. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated showers possible. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers. Highs 75-82. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 20-24)

The general northwesterly flow pattern continues across the northeast with limited rain chances and near to below normal temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 25-29)

No significant changes to the pattern are expected during this period as well.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-15-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 14-18)

High pressure will dominate the weather today through Wednesday. Today’s weather will be warm and dry as the high center in control will be to our west and the air mass in place has been warmed by June sunshine. This high center will weaken and give way to a slightly stronger one in southeastern Canada Wednesday, sending a back-door cold front through the region early in the day and setting up another fair but cooler day, with a northeasterly air flow. This will settle down as the day goes on and the high center sinks southward, but the resultant weaker wind field would allow a sea breeze to develop anyway, so the general onshore flow will continue. High pressure shifts offshore to the southeast of New England by early Thursday at which time a broad low pressure area will be heading east northeastward through the Great Lakes, eventually to cross southeastern Canada Thursday night into Friday while its track turns more east to southeast. Clouds increase and humidity starts to rise during Thursday, and a round of showers can be expected with the warm front some time Thursday evening or night, at which time we’ll get into a wedge of warmth and high humidity, so temperatures at night will not fall all that much. Friday, a cold front will swing through from northwest to southeast, and the timing of this front will determine the coverage and strength of showers and thunderstorms that accompany it. After any overnight / early morning activity departs, we will see breaks in the clouds and some sunshine, which will heat the atmosphere and destabilize it, with the warm and muggy air in place, but the cold front’s timing looks fairly early to me – late morning to midday for areas northwest of Boston and early to mid afternoon from the Boston area southeastward. There are still a few days to fine-tune this, but if this idea is right, showers/storms may be limited initially, and most widespread / strongest over southeastern MA and RI. As they got closer to Cape Cod we’d then probably see the marine stabilizing influence take over and they’d weaken. While Friday will stay pretty warm throughout the day into the evening, we will see the dew point start to fall with the passage of the cold front, so the end of the day will be more comfortable than the start. Also, there will be a fair amount of wind developing Thursday and continuing Friday with the passage of this system and a tighter pressure gradient. Saturday, the upper low associated with this departing feature will slow down and likely come to a stop, far enough offshore that we avoid an overcast and rainy set-up, but close enough that we will have to watch for at least some clouds to build and the possibility of pop up showers and thunderstorms. Don’t go cancelling any outdoor plans over this, however.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 79-86, but may turn cooler immediate coast afternoon. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, but sea breezes may develop right at the shore.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 57-64. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy early, then mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH morning, E up to 10 MPH afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH morning, S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts afternoon.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Humid – dew point 60+. Lows 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. A shower or thunderstorm possible late morning through mid afternoon from northwest to southeast across the region. Any thunderstorms may be strong. Humid morning – dew point 60+, then lowering humidity. Highs 81-88. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 58-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 75-82. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 19-23)

We’ll be on the western side of upper level low pressure on June 19 with a chance of a pop up shower, otherwise mostly dry and fairly cool weather. After this, the pattern should open up again with a return to a northwesterly flow, variable temperatures with no high heat, mostly dry but a chance of a passing shower or t-storm from time to time with disturbances moving along the flow as we finish up spring and welcome summer (solstice June 21).

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 24-28)

Outside shot of a bit of rain to start this period as there are some hints of a stronger disturbance coming along the continued northwest flow pattern, otherwise more of the same heading into late June.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-14-2022