C-19 Chat Post – 6-14-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 13-17)

A warm front moved through overnight with areas of showers and even some heavier thunderstorms, especially along the South Coast for thunder. The last of that is exiting via Cape Cod as I write this, and there’s just a chance of a quick pop-up shower as a cold front swings through the region from west to east this morning. But as we see many times when we get to this time of year, it doesn’t turn all the cool behind the “cold front”, due to down-sloping wind off the hills and mountains to our west and northwest, combined with the high sun angle. So while the humidity, which briefly spiked overnight, drops during the day, it will also become quite warm. High pressure provides fair, dry but continued fairly warm weather Tuesday, before another high center from eastern Canada sends a weak but uneventful back-door cold front through our region by early Wednesday. That day will also feature fair weather, but with a little cooler air in place. The next round of unsettled weather is due as low pressure moves east southeastward from Canada across northern New England Thursday into Friday, to a position east of New England by late Friday. This low’s warm front comes through the region Thursday evening with clouds and potential showers and thunderstorms, and much like today’s set-up, we’ll have a cold front swinging through Friday morning with a shower and thunderstorm threat. Drier but still warm air, also like today, will become dominant Friday, but we’ll have to watch for one more shower or storm as a trough goes through the region from northwest to southeast. I won’t be able to determine how great a chance that is or time it until we get closer to it.

TODAY: Lots of clouds early – showers/thunderstorms exit Cape Cod. Sun/cloud mix thereafter with just a slight chance of a brief passing shower. Drying out. Highs 77-84. Wind SW up to 10 MPH becoming W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 80-87. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 57-64. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy early, then mostly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. A passing shower or thunderstorm possible early and again midday. Less humid. Highs 80-87. Wind W-NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 18-22)

The low pressure area that makes its way east of New England later this week becomes part of an omega blocking pattern for a few days including the June 18-19 weekend. Right now, I think this feature will be far enough east so while we are a little on the cooler side, we’ll be mostly dry with just the possibility of a few pop up showers / t-storms. The pattern should open up again with a return to a northwesterly flow, variable temperatures with no high heat, mostly dry but a chance of a passing shower or t-storm from time to time with disturbances moving along the flow as we finish up spring and welcome summer (solstice June 21).

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 23-27)

Overall pattern looks similar, northwesterly flow, no major heat, brief warm spikes and cool downs, a shower or thunderstorm threat from time to time, but largely rain-free.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-13-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 12-16)

Quick update for your Sunday. No significant changes to yesterday’s ideas. Today’s not going to be as nice as yesterday, but it does start out very nice. High pressure offshore exerts enough influence to give us sun mixed with the clouds that are advancing ahead of a warm front. That front will eventually thicken up our cloudiness and increase the chance for showers, but while that chance does go up this afternoon, we see most of that activity tonight, along with the potential for embedded thunderstorms as the front crosses and we get into a wedge of warm, humid air. But that will be short-lived as a cold front crosses the region by midday Monday, putting an end to any rain threat. Will this be a beneficial rainfall? Not particularly. While some areas may see a moderate rainfall amount, the short-lived duration and lack of follow-up rain minimizes the benefit. High pressure brings fair weather to the region from late Monday through early Thursday as it slides slowly eastward across the Northeast. Tuesday, we’re on the cool/breezy side of it, Wednesday’s the tranquil day but has the coastal sea breezes, and Thursday we end up in the return-flow on the back side of the high and the region warms up (though not hot). By later Thursday, the next disturbance approaching from the west will at the very least increase our cloudiness, and brings a higher chance of shower and thunderstorm activity as well.

TODAY: Intervals of sun & clouds morning. Clouds dominate afternoon. Scattered light rain mid afternoon on but many areas stay mostly rain-free. Highs 74-81, coolest coast. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. More humid – dew point 60+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms morning to midday, then sun and passing clouds. Lowering humidity afternoon. Highs 77-84. Wind SW shifting to W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 71-78. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Late day showers and thunderstorms possible. Highs 77-84. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 17-21)

General northwesterly air flow between a low pressure trough in far eastern Canada and a ridge of high pressure across the central US, with not much movement of large-scale features. Our rain chances will be limited to disturbances traveling along this flow, with the one arriving late Thursday exiting early in this period, and perhaps another around June 20 (though the timing of these is very difficult as their formation is often dependent on thunderstorms far upstream and model guidance struggles to see these well more than a day or two in advance). The take-away, drier than average, no major heat.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 22-26)

At this point I don’t see enough evidence to go for a pattern change, so more of the same in the later days of June – but only moderate confidence in this outlook. Overall idea is near to below normal for both temperatures and precipitation.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-12-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 11-15)

It’s weekend time! The next-to-last weekend of spring and the second weekend of meteorological summer. So, how’s this one gonna turn out? Not bad. Not perfect. Of course your perception of how good or bad the weather is doesn’t fit into some neat rule book everybody follows. If you are a lover of hot weather, this won’t be a great weekend. If you don’t like the heat, you’ll like this weekend. If you thrive on 100% sunshine, which is rare, you’re definitely not going to find this weekend to your liking. If the weekend has to be dry with nary a drop of rain in the vicinity, well, you’ll like today, but not tomorrow. If you want the chance to dance in a spring shower, tomorrow’s your day, at least potentially. See what I’m getting at? When I refer to weather as being “nice”, I’m often just referring to fair (not unsettled, not stormy), but you’re always free to apply your own adjectives. Is it even safe for me to admit I like all weather, including being socked in with New England’s famous east wind, low overcast, fog, and drizzle? Hah! Well, we don’t have that this weekend. So, what is it we do have then? … Well, we have a weak high pressure area that controlled yesterday’s weather now slipping off to the south of our area. While we have a fairly weak wind field today, it can warm up a bit more than it did yesterday as yesterday we had a gusty westerly breeze still advecting cool air into the region. The warming will be tempered by a fair amount of high cloudiness though, streaming northeastward from a disturbance heading for the Mid Atlantic States via the Appalachian Mountains. This high cloudiness gave some areas a nice sunset last night, a beautiful sunrise this morning, and may set up yet another colorful sunset this evening. There will be a few diurnal clouds that also pop up under the high cloudiness, but I don’t expect an abundance of these and they will only add a bit of decoration to the sky. Tonight’s quiet, but more clouds will move in overnight. While we may sneak in some sunshine at times, especially in the morning, on Sunday, the cloudiness will end up thicker and the rain chance will go up as a warm front approaches. This warm front extends from a low pressure area destined to pass to our northwest. The low is a surface reflection of an upper level low that will traverse the region from west to east Sunday and Monday. The cold front from the surface low will swing through here on Monday, current timing looking like morning or midday. After a warm and more humid Sunday night in the warm sector of the low, we will keep the chance of showers and a few thunderstorms around from then until the cold front swings through, so the first half of Monday looks more unsettled than the second half for the region in general, but I may have to tweak the timing a bit on tomorrow’s update. One more disturbance swings south of the region Monday night and early Tuesday, but this has no impact on us. What will have impact on us is a ridge of high pressure building toward the East Coast and sending a surface high from Canada into our region Tuesday and Wednesday with fair weather. It will initially be breezy on Tuesday as cooler air moves in, and then with the high settling over us Wednesday, we’ll have lighter wind but the cooling will be most noticeable on the coast where a sea breeze will likely develop.

TODAY: Filtered sunshine through considerable high cloudiness. A few fair-weather clouds popping up as well. Highs 75-82, coolest along the coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 59-66. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Considerably cloudy – best chance of sunshine in the morning. Scattered rain afternoon. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind S-SE up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Lows 61-68. More humid – dew point 60+. Wind S-SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms morning to midday, then sun and passing clouds. Lowering humidity afternoon. Highs 77-84. Wind SW shifting to W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 55-62. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 71-78. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 51-58. Wind N under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 72-79, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 16-20)

High pressure ridging de-amplifies somewhat and moves off the East Coast so we warm up but also increase the chance of unsettled weather as a trough and frontal system push in from the west anytime between late June 16 through June 17. A push of drier, cooler air should follow that but late in the period we may have to watch for a temporary block in the pattern as the trough moving offshore cuts off and hangs around out there. If it ends up doing it sooner or there is a little retrogression to the feature, we could be unsettled, but if far enough east, we stay dry. So there is a higher degree of uncertainty right now for the final days of astronomical spring.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 21-25)

The summer solstice occurs on June 21 and the early hints for the pattern for the first days of summer is fairly dry, but lacking a lot of heat, as we keep the general air flow pattern northwesterly with a mean trough in eastern Canada and ridge of high pressure in the central US.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-11-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 10-14)

Heading into the middle of June now – many people think summer, but we’re still in the days of late spring, and our pattern will reflect that in the coming days. First, after the fanfare of the last couple days we get to enjoy a couple quieter days as high pressure slides across the region today into Saturday with fair weather. Abundant sun will shine today but we’ll have an active breeze between the high center to the southwest and low pressure in eastern Canada. The wind will be much lighter but the sun will be more limited Saturday as we see a lot more high cloudiness from a disheveled disturbance trying to get its act together as it passes well to our south and the remnants of a disturbance try to push in from the southwest. We’re going to see some unsettled weather return Sunday into Monday as an upper level low pressure area and associated surface disturbance slides west to east across the northeastern US. Clouds become dominant Sunday, though we may still sneak some sunshine in especially in the morning. The greatest chance of shower activity will be Sunday evening and Sunday night, with some lingering activity and additional pop up showers Monday. Thunderstorms may join the party on a couple of occasions – most likely Sunday night and again in a more isolated nature Monday. Hard to pin-point this particular occurrence and it’ll be something we have to watch. Canadian high pressure builds in behind this disturbance Tuesday with fair weather but on the cooler and breezy side as well.

TODAY: Sunshine with passing late morning and afternoon fair-weather clouds. Highs 75-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusts 20-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 59-66. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers, especially late day. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 60-67. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 71-78. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH and gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 15-19)

High pressure should bring fair, mild, and dry weather early in the period. Mid-period unsettled weather is possible with a low pressure and frontal system pushing through from west to east. High pressure would return later in the period with fair weather again in an overall west-to-east flow pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 20-24)

As we get to the final days of spring and first days of summer, I’m continuing to look for hints of a shift in the pattern to more dominant high pressure to our south which would result in a warmer pattern. Reluctant to dive into this idea still as there are still hints of some cool Canadian high pressure areas wanting to get into the act, so leaning toward a more up-and-down temperature pattern with short-lived unsettled episodes during air mass transitions, obviously impossible to time specifically so far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-10-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 9-13)

I often use the quote “all systems fail in a drought” when in or talking about a drought. You know that obviously that’s never 100% true, and even though only part of our region (as of last report) is classified in drought at this time, drought or no drought, this system is not a failure today. A developing low pressure wave passing through the region is already bringing a nice slug of rain, the first associated with its warm front this morning. This round will be the most widespread and deliver about a half to an inch and a half of rainfall to the region, including the potential for some embedded thunder. “Round 2” is not going to be as widespread or long-lasting, but in the form of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong/severe, with the system’s cold front that will be pulling through the region early to mid afternoon. After that, we’re done with the rain threat from it, and drier air flows in to clear us out through tonight, setting up a nice day on Friday as high pressure builds toward the region from the west. This high pressure area, while not a strong one, will be over us Friday night into Saturday before sliding off to the east. During this time, a wave of low pressure will form and pass well south of the region, and may only add some clouds to the sky, but will bring no rain threat, so Saturday is definitely to be the pick of the coming weekend. But don’t get too nervous about Sunday by my saying that. I think we salvage a good part of the weekend with dry weather the majority of Sunday. As an upper level low pressure area and associated surface low and frontal system approach from the west later Sunday, we will see clouds roll in and the chance of rainfall increase, but based on current timing it looks like most of that will occur Sunday night. The upper low still has to cross our region Monday, based on current expecting timing, so that day carries the chance of at least some pop up showers and potential thunderstorms.

TODAY: Cloudy with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms in the morning, tapering off / ending southwest to northeast by midday. Variably cloudy midday through mid afternoon with isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms, some of which may be strong to locally severe. Sun/cloud mix later in the day. Humid through early afternoon – dew point 60s. Highs 70-77. Wind E 5-15 MPH morning, S at similar speeds but gusty afternoon, shifting to W late in the day or evening.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 59-66. Wind SE to variable up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers by late day. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows 60-67. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs 75-82. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 14-18)

High pressure builds in from Canada with fair and seasonably mild weather the first few days of this period, coolest temperatures at the coast. A low pressure system approaching and arriving from the west later in the period brings the chance of unsettled weather back to the region.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 19-23)

Overall weak westerly air flow with a tendency, eventually, for more high pressure south of New England. An initial push of mild and dry Canadian air would be followed by a transition period with clouds and a shower chance, then perhaps the feel of summer by the end of the period.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-9-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 8-12)

This morning starts overcast and damp / humid. In some places, it’s quite rainy – specifically I speak of a band of moderate to heavy showers from the South Shore to Narragansett Bay moving to the east, crossing Cape Cod into mid morning, while there are just isolated to scattered showers elsewhere. All of the shower activity will head offshore as a front clears the area by later this morning, after which we will see improvement – breaks in the clouds first, and then even a fair amount of clearing / sun this afternoon. While the air will dry out somewhat, the temperature will respond to the emerging sun and it will be a mild to warm afternoon. Our drier interlude will be short-lived, however, as a wave of low pressure races toward our region tonight and brings another slug of rainfall, this one fairly widespread and at least briefly moderate to heavy, during Thursday morning and midday, before it moves away. Do the clouds break as quickly Thursday as they do today? Probably not, but we still should work enough dry air into the region to see at least breaks of sun as the afternoon goes on. Complete clearing arrives as a result of drier air moving into the region behind the departed low Thursday night and lasts through Friday, which will be a nice day. A weak bubble of high pressure moving in to provide Friday’s nice weather will hang around into Saturday as well before sliding offshore. The next rain threat for the coming weekend has been one I’ve been doubting for a few days now, of the opinion that the system will be weaker and further south than it first appeared on guidance. I still feel this way, but the guidance is also (and has been for several runs) trending in this direction, giving me a little more confidence in this prognostication. What does that mean? It means that I think other than a brief rain chance near the South Coast Saturday night, if that even happens, the bulk of the weekend is dry. What we do have to watch for is the arrival of upper level low pressure from the west, which if quick enough can turn Sunday unsettled before it concludes. I’ll be watching for the timing and integrity of this feature as we get closer to the weekend, and fine-tune appropriately…

TODAY: Cloudy start including widespread moderate to heavy showers and a slight risk of thunder in southeastern MA and scattered to isolated showers elsewhere, ending from west to east by late morning. Becoming partly to mostly sunny midday-afternoon. Highs 75-82, coolest South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W, occasional higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Rain chances increase toward dawn. Lows 60-67. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH then becoming variable to calm.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms in the morning, tapering off / ending southwest to northeast midday. Breaking clouds and partial sun possible as the afternoon goes on. Highs 70-77. Wind E 5-15 MPH morning, S at similar speeds but gusty afternoon, shifting to W late in the day or evening.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 52-59. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs 73-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Brief rain chance South Coast. Lows 60-67. Wind SE up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers by late day. Highs 75-82. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 13-17)

Upper level low pressure brings the chance of showers and thunderstorms June 13 before high pressure moves in for a few days with fair weather. Another system approaching from the west increases the chance of unsettled weather by the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 18-22)

Overall weak westerly air flow with a tendency, eventually, for more high pressure south of New England. After a transition with a couple of unsettled episodes, the feel of summer may be here before this forecast period concludes, just in time for the arrival of summer itself.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-8-2022

DAYS 1-5 (JUNE 7-11)

High pressure slides offshore today and much of the day will be fairly nice, a bit warmer (still coolest coast) and rain-free, even though clouds will be on the increase as the day goes on, ahead of an approaching trough and cold front. This front brings showers tonight and Wednesday morning. An additional shower or t-storm may pop up around midday as the actual frontal boundary comes through the region, then we get a dry interlude, but we don’t completely clear out as the front doesn’t really get far and a wave of low pressure approaches from the southwest. This low pressure wave will bring us a period of widespread showers Wednesday night and Thursday morning, helping to cut into our nearly 5-inch rainfall deficit for the year-so-far. Improvement comes later Thursday as the low moves away, and high pressure builds in with nice weather for Friday and into Saturday. Leaning toward an upcoming storm threat for the weekend being weaker and further south than modeled, so for now I have dry through Saturday…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of showers by evening, favoring eastern CT, central MA, and southwestern NH. Highs 74-81, coolest South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 56-63. Wind SW to variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely through mid morning. Chance of a shower or thunderstorm midday. Highs 73-80. Wind variable to W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely, especially late evening and overnight. Areas of fog. Lows 58-65. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with showers likely in the morning. Sun/cloud mix afternoon. Highs 70-77. Wind variable 5-15 MPH becoming NW.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 71-78, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 73-80, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 12-16)

If my idea about the weekend system is right, we may see dry weather Sunday June 12 with only a fleeting chance of rain near the South Coast. Upper level low pressure in the region early next week may kick off some diurnal isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms June 13 and/or 14. Fair weather follows as that low moves away and weak high pressure dominates later in the period. Temperatures near to slightly below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 17-21)

Continuing the idea of a weak westerly flow but mean trough position to our west by a short distance, sending minor disturbances and a couple shower chances. Temperatures mostly near normal though a bit variable – no extremes expected.

C-19 Chat Post – 6-7-2022