C-19 Chat Post – 5-30-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

No need to waste time reading a long blog on the first of two beautiful holiday weekend days, so here’s an abbreviated synopsis and forecast update for southeastern New England. A high pressure ridge will be the upper level dominator of our weather for the last few days of May. Surface features will determine our sensible weather. High pressure to the south of the region will bring two dry days today and Memorial Day with a warm-up. A back-door cold front will sweep into the region during Tuesday from the northeast capping the warm up and reversing the temperature trend. When we get to midweek, June arrives with a cooler spell and a deterioration in the weather as the front that came through starts to make a return toward the region with an increase in clouds and eventually the chance of some wet weather with the break-down of ridging and arrival of a disturbance from the west.

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-79 coast, 80-85 inland. Wind NW under 10 MPH early, becoming variable, then SE up to 10 MPH especially coast.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 79-84 coast, 85-90 inland. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, but turning much cooler from northeast to southwest starting midday or afternoon. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NE.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 66-73, coolest coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 53-60. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs 65-72. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 3-7)

Frontal boundary nearby – unsure if our region ends up on the warm side briefly, but at least a chance of some shower activity on June 3 with this. Canadian air mass brings drier, cool air June 4-5. Warmer air tries to make a come-back with some unsettled weather possible later in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 8-12)

Overall pattern looks fairly dry and seasonable to slightly cooler than normal with predominant flow from eastern Canada at the surface.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-29-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 28- JUNE 1)

The Memorial Day Weekend has arrived and there are no surprises to report today since the outlook posted yesterday. We have our unsettled day today as we sit in a mild and muggy air mass ahead of a cold front, which will pass by this evening. One round of showers and embedded thunderstorms crosses parts of the region in the pre-dawn hours. The next round of activity will be triggered by the approach and arrival of the cold front this afternoon and evening. The strength of any storms will be determined by how much clearing can take place to destabilize the atmosphere, and right now it looks like that clearing may be limited, with the most sunshine taking place well north and west of Boston. That factor, along with the limiting factor of ocean influence from a south southwest wind in eastern MA, eastern CT, and RI, even southeastern NH, will limit the chance of any stronger storms getting into the majority of the WHW forecast area. However, since there are many outdoor activities planned and ongoing today as part of the holiday weekend, it’s essential to keep a close eye on the evolution of any showers and storms from afternoon to evening. Once that front goes by the region, any lingering activity will move out and/or dissipate and we’ll transition to a drier air mass overnight. High pressure settles in, its center to the southwest and south of our region, to give us a fair and warm Sunday and Monday, salvaging most of the weekend with great conditions for any outdoor activity. Monday will end up the warmest day. Tuesday will be an interesting day regarding the temperature, as this depends on the timing of a back-door cold front that will be coming down from via the Gulf of Maine. Currently, I favor timing that allows us to quickly warm up in the morning, followed by a big cool-down in southeastern NH and eastern MA during the day, spreading further south and west later in the day and at night, with the marine air mass over the entire region when we get to Wednesday, the first day of June and meteorological summer. I don’t think any rainfall will accompany the back-door front, just some clouds, which may hang around at times into Wednesday, although the air will be dry enough to allow sunshine too.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy but also some intervals of sunshine at times. Scattered showers/thunderstorms this afternoon, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Any storms could be strong, especially southern NH and central to northeastern MA. Highs 71-78, coolest South Coast. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clouds break. Evening fog patches. Humidity lowers. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 74-79 coast, 80-85 inland. Wind NW under 10 MPH early, becoming variable, then SE up to 10 MPH especially coast.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 56-63. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 79-84 coast, 85-90 inland. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, but turning much cooler from northeast to southwest starting midday or afternoon. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NE.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 51-58. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 66-74, coolest coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 2-6)

Wave of low pressure passing northwest of the region brings the boundary that went by previously back as a warm front with clouds/showers June 2. Difficult timing but cold front swings through with a shower/t-storm threat June 3 when it may be briefly warm and humid. Cooler thereafter with a Canadian air mass arriving. Warm air trying to make a comeback may increase the cloud cover later in the period but overall pattern is still dry.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 7-11)

Overall pattern looks fairly dry and seasonable to slightly cooler than normal with predominant flow from eastern Canada at the surface.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-28-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 27-31)

Memorial Day Weekend’s weather is the center piece of this 5-day discussion. This marks the “unofficial” start of the summer season, as far as tourism and vacationing goes. And for many it starts with a “getaway day” today, which is not really going to present any real weather-related challenges for our area unless you are going to be traveling during tonight. During the day we’ll just be contending with a lot of cloudiness as a warmer and more moist southerly air flow becomes established, and any precipitation will be limited to a quick sprinkle of rain mainly to the west or a patch of drizzle near the South Coast. Tonight, a surface trough will approach and then move through in the early morning hours of Saturday from west to east. While this feature will be approaching our area with a healthy batch of good coverage showers and thunderstorms, it looks like it loses a lot of support so that the activity will have diminished to scattered while it moves through the WHW forecast area and mostly gone by shortly after dawn. The next threat of showers and thunderstorms does not come until the approach and passage of a cold front later Saturday, so this leaves us with several hours especially morning and midday that are free of rain threat and may even feature some intervals of sunshine, making Saturday a non-washout and salvaging part of the day for any outdoor plans, so long as you are wise and keep an eye on the radar. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity will probably be scattered as opposed to widespread, but any storms that do form and move into the area can be strong with even an isolated severe storm possible, so if you are traveling or do have outdoor plans please keep this in mind and have a plan to move to shelter if needed. The cold front pushes through by early Saturday night and sets us up for a spectacular and somewhat summery Sunday and Monday. The air won’t really be all that cool behind that “cold” front because its source region is not particularly chilly and the center of high pressure will be passing to our south, allowing a west to southwest wind to warm us up on those days. Tuesday presents the next forecast dilemma as we see that high to the south sliding further away and a bubble of high pressure in eastern Canada become stronger. Inevitably, the boundary between the two plays into our forecast as is typical for spring in New England, and we’ll be trying to determine the timing of the arrival of a back-door cold front from the northeast. This boundary has a high impact on Tuesday’s temperatures for our region. With this being day 5 right now, I’m going to play the middle ground, start us warm, then cool the region down with a PM frontal passage. If the front is sooner, we cool more quickly … later, and we keep the warmth through most of or all of the day. But for those who are taking an extra long weekend and may be returning to the area on Tuesday, the weather itself should not be an issue as again it looks like dry weather holds.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy – intervals of sun at times. A sprinkle possible southwestern NH, central MA, and eastern CT during the afternoon along with a potential patch of drizzle near the South Coast. Increasingly humid – dew point rising to or a little over 60. Highs 66-73 coast, 73-80 inland. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Humid – dew point upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows 58-65. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy but also some intervals of sunshine at times. Showers possible near dawn. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon, some of which can be strong. Areas of fog early. Highs 70-77, coolest South Coast. Humid – dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds break, but fog patches remain. Humidity lowers. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Partly sunny. Highs 80-87, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-67. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 78-85, but may turn much cooler from northeast to southwest by late-day. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NE.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 1-5)

Iffy temperature / weather forecast in here due to a lot of weather players on the field in close proximity. Looks like we stay on the cooler side of the aforementioned front for June 1 with dry and pleasant weather, then the boundary moves back as a warm front with a shower threat on June 2, followed by a cold front from the west with a shower/t-storm threat June 3, then fair weather for the June 4-5 weekend with high pressure in control.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 6-10)

Overall pattern looks fairly dry and seasonable to slightly cooler than normal with predominant flow from eastern Canada at the surface.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-27-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 26-30)

Today’s discussion will be a quick one to summarize the features in control of our weather from today through the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend. Tomorrow I’ll expand a little bit more to detail the final 5 days of May… Warmer air is making its way in aloft and that’s the reason for the cloudiness we’ll have around today – but these clouds are not going to produce any rainfall in our area, so overall it will be a nice day. You’ll notice the humidity creeping up tonight and especially on Friday as we get into a stronger southerly air flow ahead of an approaching trough of low pressure and associated surface low which will drag a warm front through the region late Friday with a round of showers and a few possible thunderstorms, but the greater risk of showers and storms comes with a trough early Saturday morning and then again with a cold front Saturday afternoon – the timing of these we will have to fine-tune in the next 2 days. This means that the holiday weekend gets off to an unsettled start, but there is good news as it looks like high pressure builds in to salvage 2 of the 3 days, with fair weather for Sunday (removed shower threat) and Monday.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring western areas late in the day. More humid – dewpoint cracking 60. Highs 66-73 coast, 73-80 inland. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 58-65. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and possibly thunderstorms, favoring early morning and sometime afternoon / evening. Areas of fog early. Highs 68-75. Dew point 60+. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds break, but fog patches remain. Humidity lowers. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 68-75, coolest coast. Wind N to E up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 51-57. Wind E to variable under 10 MPH.

MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Partly sunny. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 31 – JUNE 4)

The heat potential is there for May 31 and/or June 1 but odds are starting to favor one or even both of those days seeing that thwarted by a back-door cold front and cooler maritime air, at least over eastern parts of the region. After that, the fair and warmer pattern may try to take hold but we will still have to watch for maritime influences. No sign of any significant rainfall, which we need, and this will allow our dry / early drought to expand.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 5-9)

Overall pattern looks fairly dry and seasonable to slightly warmer than normal.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-26-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 25-29)

The meteorological process today takes me a little deeper into deciphering the mystery that is predicting the future, and now 2 of the 3 days that comprise Memorial Day Weekend will be in this DAYS 1-5 forecast period. Recalling recent tremendous disagreement among major medium range guidance, the process started with acknowledging that both solutions were likely overdone, and that reality likely lies somewhere between solutions. Since then, there’s been a little more agreement developing between the various models, although they are not quite “there” yet. But this leads me to further investigation based on what I know of model bias as it relates to the current and upcoming weather pattern.What I am confident of is that today will be a fairly nice day as high pressure, albeit weak, governs our weather. Coolest air will again be felt along the coast – typical for this spring set-up. High pressure shifts offshore tonight and Thursday and a warm front quietly goes by, with Thursday daytime featuring a varying amount of clouds but also some sunshine, mild to warm air, but still dry in terms of humidity. It is on Friday and Saturday when we will see the humidity spike up, but with the approach of a trough of low pressure and a surface low pressure area and frontal system, our chance of wet weather will go up too. The current idea is that the shower threat during the daytime hours of Friday will be mostly to the west of the WHW forecast area, but expand into the region at night, and then Saturday is the day that is likely to at least start with occasional showery weather. If we manage to get a wave of low pressure that sits to our south, as some guidance has suggested, we could end up with an onshore flow and a general overcast with drizzle and showers that persists more of the day. Some guidance pushes the system offshore a little more steadily and allows for drying to take place later on in the day, and I am cautiously optimistically leaning toward this scenario, but not completely losing the shower threat. In fact, I think there will still be enough influence from low pressure that we can see a pop up shower on Sunday too, but that the day overall will feature improvement over Saturday with a little more sunshine and lower humidity. With the importance of the forecast for this unofficial start of the summer season upcoming, I’ll continues to monitor and make any forecast adjustments needed, but for now this is how it looks.

TODAY: More sun than clouds. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind variable teo SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring western areas late in the day. More humid – dewpoint cracking 60. Highs 66-73 coast, 73-80 inland. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 58-65. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog and drizzle. Humid – dew point 60+. Highs 65-72, cooler coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, may become E.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouds break, but fog patches remain. Humidity lowers. Lows 55-62. Wind variable to S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloud/sun mix. A pop up shower possible. Highs 68-75, coolest near the coast. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 30 – JUNE 3)

If things follow the scenario I expect, then Memorial Day Monday would be a fair weather day with warmer inland temperatures but a cooler coastal sea breeze. After that building high pressure offshore could provide a taste of summer heat again for the final day of May. After that there are signs that high pressure drops down from eastern Canada with fair and somewhat cooler weather to start June, but a warm-up by late in the period as the high settles to the south. Obviously days 6-10 leave a fair amount of uncertainty on the table. As we wrap up meteorological spring, barring a heavier rainfall than forecast for the end of this week, we are going to end the March through May period in the top 10 as far as dry weather goes. Meteorological spring’s driest occurred in 1915 with only 3.50 inches of rain for Boston, with 1910, 1981, and 1927 coming in at #’s 2, 3, and 4, with 4.49 inches, 4.93 inches, and 4.95 inches, respectively. (Info from NWS via WBZ Meteorologist Eric Fisher.) At 5.84 inches of rain for March, April, and May-to-date, Boston sits at 8th driest with just a handful of days left to go.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 4-8)

A weak blocking pattern may try to establish itself but the overall weather pattern remains on the dry side with no extremes of temperature.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-25-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 24-28)

High pressure will be in control of our weather today through Wednesday, first centered to our north then slipping down over and eventually southeast of our area, so today will be the cooler and breezier of the two days with a northeasterly wind. We’ll also see periodic higher level cloudiness from abundant moisture to our south. With a low pressure trough approaching from the west and high pressure offshore of the Atlantic Coast we get into a more southerly air flow Thursday and Friday, with a warming trend, but also a fair amount of cloudiness at times too. We may not end up seeing much rainfall around here though as it looks like a lot of that will remain to our west. This is a slower evolution than some guidance had yesterday and this lends a little more credibility to the more unsettled weather scenario as we head into the Memorial Day Weekend – a forecast that still needs a lot of work. For now though, I’m leaning toward an unsettled Saturday to start it off, with lots of clouds and some wet weather, but probably not a widespread rainfall either, though we finally get the trough of low pressure and frontal boundary right into our region.

TODAY: Cloud/sun mix. Highs 58-65 immediate coast, 65-72 inland. wind NE 5-15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 38-45 interior valleys, 45-52 elsewhere. Wind NE under 10 MPH to calm.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 65-72. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 58-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. More humid. Highs 66-73 coast, 73-80 inland. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, possibly a thunderstorm. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 58-65. Wind S to variable up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Areas of fog and drizzle. Humid. Highs 65-72, cooler coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 29 – JUNE 2)

The forecast for the remainder of the Memorial Day Weekend (May 29-30) is low confidence but for now leaning toward just a chance of a few showers around on Sunday and improving but cooler weather Monday with more of an onshore air flow as high pressure to the north pushes low pressure away to the south. End May / early June should feature fair and seasonably mild weather with weak high pressure in control.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 3-7)

Early June pattern continues to look like it will be somewhere between weak zonal flow and weak omega blocking with us on the drier side of the pattern overall, along with mostly seasonable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-24-2022

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 23-27)

We’ve made it through the mini spell of heat, which wasn’t much of a hot spell for the coast until a few hours on Sunday. In fact, the location that represents Boston never made it to 90. We know they stayed well below that at 71 for a high Saturday, and yesterday they fell short by 1, topping out at 89. The showers and thunderstorms behaved about as expected yesterday, with the isolated activity during the afternoon, even a strong storm southwest of the city, and then the weakening activity with the front last night. Now that cold front has gone through and we’re in a new, refreshing air mass from Canada. High pressure will build north of our region over the next few days and supply is with fair and dry weather with cooler air as well. We won’t be totally sunny each day as the front sits just to the south and some waves of low pressure will be moving along it, but my current thought is that any rain will remain south of New England. Kind of a shame, because we need it. Our next shot at unsettled weather comes later Thursday and Friday as high pressure slips offshore and low pressure passes northwest of us, bringing its warm front through later Thursday and then its cold front during Friday. We’ll fine-tune those details during the week.

TODAY: Sun/cloud mix. Highs 70-77. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy morning then a sun/cloud mix. Highs 65-72, coolest east-facing shores. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 48-55. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 66-73. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 50-57. Wind E-SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers by late in the day. Highs 65-72. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Patchy fog. More humid. Lows 58-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Humid. Highs 68-75, coolest South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 28 – JUNE 1)

Memorial Day Weekend (May 28-30) has a forecasting dilemma. Today’s medium range guidance is rather split, with 2 major models now showing unsettled weather for at least part of the weekend, and a third model painting a totally different picture with a generally dry weekend. For the moment I’m leaning toward a delay to the onset of dry weather with possible unsettled weather on the Saturday, then improvement thereafter, but this is low confidence and another thing to work out as we get closer. End May / early June should feature fair and seasonably mild weather.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 2-6)

Early June pattern looks like it wants to be somewhere between weak zonal flow and weak omega blocking with us on the drier side of the pattern overall, along with mostly seasonable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 5-23-2022