C-19 Chat Post – 4-15-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 14-18)

A complex weather system will be with us today as we have a frontal boundary bisecting the region, setting up a significant temperature contrast, and an approaching frontal boundary from the west as well. There’s not a lot of change in the thought process outlined in yesterday’s discussion about the significant temperature spread from northeast to southwest today as well as the few showers around early today and the more significant shower and thunderstorm threat this evening. That threat looks strongest west of our area, but some of the downpours and storms can certainly make their way into the WHW forecast area as evening arrives, though they should be losing punch as they move east as they feel the influence of more stable air in place here. We’re still looking decent for Friday with drier weather. If you are in areas that are cool today, Friday will turn out milder. If you are in the warmest areas today, Friday will turn out a little cooler. Either way, Friday will still be a nice spring day after a slow start, and the afternoon continues to look great for Fenway baseball… Our weekend, a 3-day weekend for some, holds one significant weather change. We’ll have a mild Saturday but low pressure to our northwest will send a disturbance and cold front this way and a round or 2 of showers and even a few thunderstorms can visit the region, with timing right now looking like late afternoon or evening. I think Saturday’s outdoor daytime plans should be generally ok, although there will likely be a gusty breeze. Once that cold front passes by Saturday night, it sets up a cooler and breezy Sunday and just enough cold air aloft so that we’ll have some fair weather clouds and perhaps a brief sprinkle of rain – but most of the day looks dry. Monday looks cool but more tranquil at this time as high pressure controls, but we’ll start to see high clouds arriving as the day goes on ahead of the next unsettled weather threat. It looks dry for both the Boston Marathon and the traditional late morning first-pitch Red Sox game at Fenway Park.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring northern and eastern areas early in the day. Chance of drizzle NH Seacoast and MA East Coast. Chance of rain showers from west to east later in the day. Highs 50-57 southeastern NH and northeastern MA, 58-65 southeastern NH and eastern MA to RI and 66-73 central MA to northeastern CT except cooler along the South Coast. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH most of eastern and northeastern MA and southern NH, variable to SW 5-15 MPH south central MA, northeastern CT, RI, and MA South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely this evening including the chance of thunderstorms, especially west of Boston. Lows 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a chance of drizzle early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, probably occurring late in the day, except cooler in some coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind N up to 10 MPH in the morning becoming W and increasing to 10-20 MPH during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Early clouds, then mostly sunny mid morning to mid afternoon. Partly sunny later in the day with a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, favoring areas west of Boston. Highs 61-68 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and possible thunderstorms in the evening, then clearing. Lows 42-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight chance of a brief passing sprinkle of rain. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clearing overnight. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing high clouds afternoon. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 19-23)

Continuing to watch a storm system for rain and even possible higher elevation mix/snow early in the period. Next unsettled weather threat around April 22 in a somewhat active pattern with temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 24-29)

Continued near to below normal temperatures with somewhat active weather – a couple threats of unsettled weather seem quite likely.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-14-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 13-17)

A warm front approaches today with a considerable amount of cloud cover, but not really a bad day at all – not too windy, fairly mild for mid April. It’s tonight when we see more cloudiness and some chance of light rainfall as the front enters the vicinity. It still looks like that boundary will come to a halt, somewhat bisecting our region with much of eastern MA and southern NH being on the cool side Thursday while to the southwest it warms nicely – a set-up not atypical of spring at all. Meanwhile, the low pressure parenting the boundary will also be sending another front eastward out of NY/PA into New England at night, and a pretty solid area of thunderstorms will have formed with it, and push into and eventually across our region during the night, weakening as it does so while running into increasingly stable air. However, it still can be good for some downpours and rumbles of thunder. Friday, it all moves off to the east and we get into at first a northerly flow behind a developing low pressure wave, and then eventually a westerly flow as the day goes on – turning out to be fair and rather mild. This is good news for opening day at Fenway Park. Low pressure still has to move eastward and pass north of our region, and will do so during Saturday. Somewhat similar to the set-up we had last week, we’ll find another disturbance moving along the eastern side of that larger low, and a cold front will swing its way across New England later Saturday. Ahead of it we get a mild day, and how dry it stays during the day will depend on the timing of the front and the showers (and possible thunderstorms) it triggers. For now I’m optimistic we make it through most of the day rain-free, but if you are making weekend plans, keep in mind this shower threat. For Sunday (Easter for those celebrating), we end up with a nice dry day, but the trade-off will be a cool breeze that arrives behind the cold front…

TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of light rain. Lows 43-50. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring northern and eastern areas early in the day. Chance of drizzle NH Seacoast and MA East Coast. Chance of rain showers from west to east later in the day. Highs 50-57 southeastern NH and northeastern MA, 58-65 southeastern NH and eastern MA to RI and 66-73 central MA to northeastern CT except cooler along the South Coast. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH most of eastern and northeastern MA and southern NH, variable to SW 5-15 MPH south central MA, northeastern CT, RI, and MA South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely including the chance of thunderstorms, especially west of Boston. Lows 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a chance of drizzle early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, probably occurring late in the day, except cooler in some coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind N up to 10 MPH in the morning becoming W and increasing to 10-20 MPH during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon with a chance of rain showers and thunderstorms especially late-day. Highs 61-68 except cooler South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and possible thunderstorms in the evening, then clearing. Lows 42-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 52-59. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, gusty.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 18-22)

April 18 (Patriots Day for ME, MA, and CT), “Marathon Monday”, and the traditional late morning first-pitch Red Sox home game, and the weather looks just fine! A little bit on the cooler side, especially in the morning, but we are looking at high pressure bringing fair weather, although we’ll see increasing high cloudiness well in advance of our next unsettled threat. While this is day 6, the set-up we should have probably can allow for a sea breeze so you can take this into account if you plan to be at Fenway or along the Boston Marathon route closer to the city – obviously too soon for timing and details but putting the idea out there now for advance planning reasons, and will fine-tune. Looking at the threat of rain and even interior higher elevation snow for April 19 and another potential unsettled weather threat by the end of this period as we stay in an active weather pattern.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 23-28)

Still low confidence on the outlook but staying with the idea of a zonal flow upper pattern and temperatures more likely to be on the cooler side of normal as the chilly air from Canada has the edge on its battle with the warmer air to the south. A couple of unsettled weather threats likely result from this battle zone and disturbances coming along the jet stream.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-13-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 12-16)

Step 1: Try to bring these 5 days into a little more focus. With so much going on, the time of year, and touchy guidance, it’s a task to sort things in enough detail for a useful forecast, but here we go, with the process to be repeated for many days to come it seems. Today, a warm front went through overnight and early this morning, and a cold front will be coming along in short order – late morning and midday. Until around noon or so we run the chance for rain showers across the WHW forecast area. Ironically behind the cold front is when we’ll actually warm up as we combine a drying west to northwest wind, down sloping off hills / mountains, with higher April sun angle as the sky clears out. But tonight somewhat cooler air will be more felt, especially as a brisk breeze continues to blow. Wednesday, we’ll already see increasing clouds ahead of our next weather system, as its warm front approaches. This system is to be more complex than the one passing now. The parent low pressure area will be maturing and it will already be a redevelopment of this system that moves through the Great Lakes and stacks up with an upper low between there and Hudson Bay in Canada. When this happens we usually see an arcing frontal system way out ahead of the parent low, in occlusion mode, and that’s what we will see moving into our region. Will the warm front make it into southern New England? Yes, most likely. Will it make it all the way across the WHW forecast area? Probably not. I figure a cut-off zone somewhere around the MA South Shore to perhaps northern Worcester County of MA or southwestern NH Thursday, with a resultant big temperature contrast from northeast to southwest across the region, as well as a lot of clouds, some drizzle possible on the cool side of the boundary where wind will be coming off the Atlantic, and then an increasing chance of rain showers west to east later in the day and at night as the then occluding frontal system (cold front catching up to warm front) moves in and passes through. A weak wave of low pressure that forms on that front as it slowly goes by may delay our improvement on Friday, but it will eventually turn out to be a nice day as we get into a drying westerly air flow, especially during the afternoon, just in time for opening day at Fenway Park. While we have that nicer weather, the original low pressure system that causes the Thursday’s conglomeration will still be over interior southeastern Canada, but far enough away not to bother us with any unsettled weather. This system will still have an impact on the start of our weekend, however, as it the entire circulation will help spawn another disturbance that will drag its cold front into our region by later Saturday, with the chance for rain showers. While timing on this is iffy, we should be able to get through at least part of Saturday without that threat.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 63-70, cooler Cape Cod and a few other coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing and becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 43-50. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring northern and eastern areas early in the day. Chance of drizzle NH Seacoast and MA East Coast. Chance of rain showers from west to east later in the day. Highs 50-58 southeastern NH and northeastern MA, 58-65 southeastern NH and eastern MA to RI and 65-72 central MA to northeastern CT except cooler along the South Coast. Wind NE-E 5-15 MPH most of eastern and northeastern MA and southern NH, variable to SW 5-15 MPH south central MA, northeastern CT, RI, and MA South Coast.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Lows 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with patchy fog and a chance of drizzle early, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, probably occurring late in the day, except cooler in some coastal areas especially Cape Cod. Wind variable up to 10 MPH early becoming W and increasing to 10-20 MPH during the afternoon.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 42-49. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Variably cloudy afternoon with a chance of rain showers especially late-day. Highs 60-67. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 17-21)

Step 2 is to try to make a little more sense of this 5-day period, and right now it looks like the front that goes by later Saturday will set us up for a dry, breezy, and cool Sunday April 17, which is Easter for those celebrating. Next day, April 18, Patriots Day, Marathon Monday, morning first-pitch Sox game, is a traditionally busy New England day with weather always under a microscope. At that time I believe we’ll see dry weather to start, but it may not stay that way until day’s end. It also looks like we’ll be on the cooler side of normal for temperatures, and I wonder if by nighttime we even see some interior higher elevation snowfall with the precipitation that threatens with the arrival and passage of low pressure. Many details to iron out on this. Leaning toward drier weather for the middle and end of this period, but may have to watch for a quick disturbance / frontal system April 20-21 with briefly unsettled weather.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 22-26)

Step 3 is to be cautious on the outlook this far in advance given questionable model guidance and just the time of year in general – volatile spring in the Northeast. Still leaning toward the upper level west to east (zonal flow) pattern but with the tendency for us to be on the cooler side. However, warmer air will reside not far away leaning any temperatures forecast vulnerable this far in advance. Being near the battle zone leaves me more confident we’ll endure a couple periods of unsettled weather.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-12-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 11-15)

There are a lot of things to sort out for the next several days as we head toward the half way point of April, so let’s get to it! First, a bubble of high pressure brings fair weather to our region today, with lots of sunshine – a nice change after several days of unsettled weather under an upper low. But the fair weather is short-lived. A low pressure area heading eastward, destined to pass to our north, will bring its warm front across the region late this evening with some light rainfall, with low temperatures occurring in the late evening before holding steady or even rising a little overnight in the warm sector. This low’s cold front will quickly swing across the region from west to east with a few additional rain showers until about midday Tuesday, and after its passage we will see a return to sunshine. As can be the case around here, it will be noticeably warmer behind the cold front as we will be experiencing atmospheric conditions that allow a significant warming at the surface – a drying westerly wind and full, high-angle sun, after not having the benefit of either while we are in the warm sector during the pre-dawn and early-morning hours. Tuesday night we do get a delivery of cooler air both from the normal exit of daytime heating from the lower atmosphere as well as advection of cooler air on a northwesterly breeze. Wednesday will turn out cooler than Tuesday, especially along the coast, as we quickly lose the gusty land breeze in favor of a variable to onshore breeze ahead of an approaching warm front from the next low pressure system. Clouds return during Wednesday, with an eventual rain threat as the front nears later in the day and at night. The forecast dilemma I have about this next system is trying to determine whether or not that warm front gets across the entire WHW forecast area. If yes, we break into warm air Thursday for several hours. If no, we’re rather cool, cloudier, and possibly wet. If somewhere in between, well, then we end up with one of those big temperature ranges that New England can be famous for in the springtime, along with a variety of weather ranging from overcast to sunny, depending on where you are. Right now, my leaning is somewhat optimistic, in that we get the front to come through at least most of the region for at least a few hours, so my forecast will reflect this, leaving the possibility open that northeastern MA and southeastern NH don’t get quite that lucky – and then the forecast will likely need adjustment ahead. Friday, we’ll be back into a mild westerly air flow as the larger parent low pressure area goes by to our north, and this looks like it will be accompanied by dry weather, which is great news if you’re a baseball (especially Red Sox) fan – opening day at Fenway Park!

TODAY: Sunny – some high clouds appearing later in the day from the west. Highs 58-65, but turning cooler in some coastal areas by mid-late afternoon. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH this morning, diminishing to under 10 MPH and shifting to SW this afternoon except for local sea breezes developing in coastal areas.

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Light rain at times late evening and overnight. Lows 44-51. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers during the morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 63-70, cooler Cape Cod and a few other coastal areas. Wind SW 5-15 MPH morning, NW 10-20 MPH afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 41-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early, diminishing and becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain by later in the day. Highs 57-64, coolest coast. Wind variable to SE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 43-50. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain favoring northern and eastern areas early in the day. Highs 50-58 southeastern NH and northeastern MA, 58-65 southeastern NH and eastern MA to RI and 65-72 central MA to northeastern CT except cooler along the South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, may stay E in some southern NH and northeastern MA areas.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with rain showers likely. Lows 47-54. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 63-70, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 16-20)

A lot of uncertainty for the April 16-18 period which for some is Easter weekend and also leads to Patriots Day often known as “Marathon Monday”. There are indications of a significant cool-down and eventual unsettled weather, which may even include some higher elevation snow. Model guidance is variable and inconsistent and is not of much help now. Fine-tuning will be required. Looks fair and quieter toward April 19-20.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 21-25)

No big changes in my thought process for this forecast period. Low confidence forecast leans toward an upper level pattern that is mostly a zonal (west to east) flow, but with cooler than average temperatures winning out but still with warmer air not that far away. Battle zone means a couple additional unsettled weather episodes.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-11-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 10-14)

We remain in an active weather pattern as a result of being near the oft-mentioned battle zone between cold air lingering in Canada and spring warmth to our south. Today, upper level low pressure is still in the process of crossing the Northeast. It was responsible for showers and thunderstorms with hail Saturday, and today will result in lots of clouds developing but this time just a few passing rain showers are possible. Tonight, it moves away and we clear out overnight, and set up for a nice Monday as a small bubble of high pressure moves across our area. A small low pressure area will follow this, tracking just north of our region and bringing a quick warm front / cold front combo across the area with some unsettled weather Monday night and Tuesday morning, before we clear out again with fairly mild air for Tuesday afternoon. And when we get to midweek, we’ll do it again with a slightly larger-sized system bringing its warm front toward our area Wednesday. There’s a bit more of a question as to whether or not this front will be able to push through and that is a key to Thursday’s forecast, which is more uncertain between cooler air and lots of clouds with some light rainfall or warmer air with a sun/cloud mix and a chance of showers. I’m leaning toward scenario #2 but with low confidence.

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated rain showers possible this afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breeze possible in the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 43-50. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers early, then partly sunny. Highs 58-65, cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain. Highs 55-60 coast, 60-65 inland. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Lows 43-50. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Highs 58-65, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 15-19)

Looking for a drier westerly air flow for the first couple days of this period leading into the start of next weekend, then watching for an unsettled period of weather later weekend and early the following week before drier weather returns, but this remains a low confidence forecast. Temperatures start mild then trend cooler.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 20-24)

This part of the forecast also continues to be low confidence. Leaning toward an upper level pattern that is mostly west to east, but with cooler than average temperatures winning out but still with warmer air not that far away. Battle zone means a couple additional unsettled weather episodes.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-10-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 9-13)

The weekend is upon us, and this second weekend of April will feature “OK” weather by the standards of many people, but far from ideal. But we must keep in mind as I often mention, that the spring season in many parts of the US, including our own area, is a time of variability and volatility, the result of those lessening but lingering pushes of cold air from Canada as the winter snow cover retreats battling with the early pushes of warmth and humidity invading areas to our south. We sit in the battle zone often, and will do so in the days ahead. I never bought an often-advertised multi-day warm up to the 70s, and I still do not. But let’s back up a bit and look at this weekend. We have to deal with upper level low pressure which has to traverse the Northeast from west to east, and will do so through Sunday. With the core of this upper low still to the west today, we’ll see a surface low pressure area quickly develop and move right across New England, the center passing just west of the WHW forecast area midday and afternoon. We’ll see 2 rounds of showers and potential thunderstorms as this system passes through – the first later this morning moving generally south to north along a warm front, and another during the afternoon along a cold front that swings through from west to east. The greatest concentration of showers and possible thunderstorms should occur near and north of I-90, and a few of them may contain brief downpours of rain and even some small hail. By later afternoon, it’s gone, and we quiet down for evening. During Sunday, the upper low will be continuing its trek across the region, so after a sunny start, we’ll see lots of clouds developing with a few rain showers possible during the afternoon, before these dissipate with the setting sun. During the first half of next week, we’ll sit near a frontal boundary once again, so the previously-advertised sunny warm stretch you may have caught via some media (not here) will not really be how things play out. As previously stated, when we are in this pattern, we have to watch for disturbances running along the boundary, and we have to watch for the impact the colder ocean water has on our region, especially coastal areas. Monday, a small bubble of high pressure passing just to the south of us, with our region on the northern side of it, means a general westerly air flow and fair/mild weather, but the wind field should be weak enough that a few coastal areas may flip to a sea breeze during the day. Monday night, a disturbance from the west comes along with more clouds and the chance of a little bit of light rainfall. This exits Tuesday leaving us with partial clearing and while it warms up inland we’ll need to watch for onshore breezes at the coast where it can be considerably cooler. While other forecasts advertise fair and warm weather for Wednesday, I’m not nearly convinced of this, as we may see yet another disturbance bring clouds, potential showers, and again a cooler coastline while it’s mild inland. There’s still enough uncertainty heading toward midweek that some adjustment to that part of the forecast may be needed.

TODAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers passing by south to north mid morning to midday. Variably cloudy remainder of day with additional rain showers and possible thunderstorms passing through from west to east, a few of which may contain small hail, coming to an end by late in the day. Highs 56-63, coolest coast. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH during the morning, shifting to SW-W during the afternoon, with a few higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny start, then variably cloudy. Scattered showers afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62, coolest coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH becoming variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breeze possible in the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy early, then partly sunny. Highs 54-61, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain. Highs 55-60 coast, 60-65 inland. Wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 14-18)

A stronger low pressure area may track west and north of our region April 14-15 with a varying amount of cloudiness and eventually a shower potential. The trend is for a cooler westerly air flow for the April 16-17 weekend, but this part of the forecast is lower confidence, as is the end of the period when we may have to watch for a coastal disturbance with the threat of rainfall and even the potential for some inland mix/snow as colder air may be around at that time.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 19-23)

This part of the forecast also continues to be low confidence. Leaning toward the zonal (west to east) flow pattern with variable temperatures and a couple unsettled weather threats difficult to focus and time so far in advance.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-9-2022

DAYS 1-5 (APRIL 8-12)

Low pressure moving across the region early this morning has produce showers and in some cases thunderstorms, which were quite potent on the MA South Coast up to the South Shore. While the heaviest activity has now moved offshore and is racing away into the Gulf of Maine (as of the time of this writing) we’ll still have some lingering shower activity around with patches of fog as well until the low pressure area gets north of our latitude. At that time, a drying westerly air flow will replace the damp easterly one. Improvement comes by midday, and the afternoon will be quite nice overall, including being rather mild in comparison to the last couple days. All we have to watch for is a pop up shower that is possible, especially over interior locations, later in the afternoon through the early evening hours. Our weekend will be so-so, but far from what we have just gone through. Upper level low pressure has to cross the region from west to east. Saturday, while we are still on the eastern side of this low, we’re quite vulnerable to showery weather especially as another surface low forms and scoots through the region. The timing for showers looks highest in the morning and midday hours, and we should see some improvement after. Sunday, the shower threat is still there, but lower, and focused on afternoon, with the cold pool of air associated with the upper low still over us. I’ve doubted previous medium range forecasts for a flip to just fair and warm weather by early next week, and this doubt remains in force. Yes, it looks better both Monday & Tuesday with small areas of high pressure in control, but between them a disturbance, likely the first in a series, will move through with some unsettled weather Monday night. This timing is obviously not set in stone – but looks this way at this time.

TODAY: Cloudy morning with areas of fog, scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms. Sun/cloud mix afternoon with a slight chance of a shower. Highs 58-65, coolest South Coast. Wind E to variable 5-15 MPH early becoming W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered to numerous showers morning-midday, then partly cloudy. Highs 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind W 5-15 MPH, shifting to NW.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers mainly afternoon. Highs 51-58. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 38-45. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-62. Wind variable up to 10 MPH, coastal sea breezes possible.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows 43-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 54-61. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 13-17)

We’ll be near a boundary zone between chilly Canadian air and warmer air in much of the US Mid Atlantic and Southeast. Where have we heard this before? It’s going to be difficult to pin down details, but right now I’d put the odds at fair weather highest at both ends of this forecast period and odds of unsettled weather highest in the middle, however the entire period may be vulnerable to unsettled weather and certainly some temperature variability. There will be a lot of fine-tuning to do with this forecast.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 18-22)

Very low confidence forecast. Expecting an overall zonal flow pattern with a couple minor disturbances bringing brief rainfall threats in a regime of mostly dry weather and seasonable though slightly variable temperatures.

C-19 Chat Post – 4-8-2022