11:00 PM

After a Saturday night & Sunday morning snowstorm, which dropped generally 3 to 6 inches of snow on the Boston area, more in some areas to the north, we are about to get hit with another storm for the final day of February on Monday. The air remains quite cold behind the weekend storm system, and with warm air coming in above us, the setup for icing is there. Fortunately, I think that the main precipitation will not reach eastern MA and southern NH until mid morning, with only some freezing drizzle before that. This should spare the region significant icing. However, with some freezing drizzle possible, any untreated surfaces may become slick for a while.

The low pressure area responsible for the stormy Monday will track northeastward across central New England by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening. There will be a sharp contrast in temperatures, much like Friday’s storm, but a bit further north this time. Temperatures may reach or exceed 50 in areas to the south of Boston, and this warmer air may briefly get into the Boston area as well. To the north, temperatures will reach the upper 30s to lower 40s.

The heaviest precipitation Monday should be in the form of rain in most of the region from MA into southern NH, at the end of the morning through early afternoon. After this, rain will become more spotty, though there will be some heavier showers around and even a risk of thunder as the low center moves through.

When we get to Monday night, the last of the rain, including some heavier showers and possible thunderstorms, will be occurring south of Boston through the Cape Cod area, but all of this will slide offshore by late evening. Colder air will flow in behind the departing storm. A disturbance dropping southward from northern New England may kick off a few snow showers later at night, along with strong, gusty winds. These winds will continue into Tuesday morning before diminishing during the afternoon as high pressure builds over the region. Tuesday will be a bright day with wall to wall sunshine.

High pressure will push east of the region on Wednesday, and a disturbance approaching from the west will spread clouds into the region. This disturbance will push through the region Wednesday night with a few rain and snow showers possible. Even a brief squall of snow, or rain changing to snow, may occur in the evening. Behind this disturbance, a shot of cold/windy weather will last from very late Wednesday night through Thursday. Dry weather will dominate the region on Thursday.

Expect a bright but more tranquil day on Friday, but with a very cold start followed by a milder afternoon as high pressure cresting over the region begins to slide to the east later in the day. Things try to get a little more complicated as we move into the weekend. There are some uncertainty on timing of the next approaching weather system, being so far away. But for the moment, I am leaning toward a slowing of the progressing of weather systems, allowing us to get through most of next weekend storm-free, with milder temperatures.

Detailed Boston area forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy freezing drizzle possible near the coast. Scattered areas of fog. Lows ranging from the upper 10s in the Merrimack Valley to the upper 20s along the coast south of Boston.  Wind light northeast to east.

MONDAY: Overcast. Freezing drizzle possible in all areas early with some icy spots possible. Rain developing from southwest to northeast in the morning, and may begin as freezing rain and sleet away from the coast before changing to plain rain by late morning, lastly in the Merrimack Valley & southern NH. Rain may be heavy at times late morning to early afternoon, then becoming more showery but still locally heavy for the rest of the afternoon. Some thunder is possible in heavier periods of rain. Highs ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s across southern NH and the Merrimack Valley to the lower and middle 50s in areas south of Boston. Wind east to southeast 5 to 15 mph, may shift to southwest for a while near and south of Boston, gusting over 20 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy through 1:00 AM with any lingering rain or showers mainly near and south of Boston coming to an end, and a chance of a few snow showers 10:00 PM to 1:00 AM. Clearing following. Lows in the upper 10s to lower 20s. Wind west 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Sunny. High in the upper 30s. Wind northwest 10 to 20 mph but gusting over 30 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from near 10 in deeper valleys to the middle 20s along the coast. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High in the lower 40s. Wind south 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a few rain and snow showers. Low in the upper 20s. Wind southwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts shifting to northwest.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the middle 30s.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High in the lower 40s.

1155AM

Hi all!

Yesterday I upgraded my forecast to 3-6 inches for the Boston area and points north for this event, and realized I failed to post it HERE!! Oops!

Apologies for that. Better updates from here on. 🙂

Anyway, this event is winding down. Coming back in a while with an update for the coming week!

Have a great Sunday everyone!

340PM

Good afternoon! We have seen the worst of the precipitation from storm #1. My forecast on it was not completely accurate, as up to a few inches of snow fell close to 495 during the first part of the storm. I expected this to occur on the back edge of the storm versus the front side, but the low pressure area cut a little further south than I thought, keeping even  Boston in the chilly air. However, despite being on the colder side of the storm track, there was enough warm air aloft to make the bulk of the precipitation fall as rain in the Boston area, after a slushy coating of snow early this morning in the NW suburbs (and of course a bit more to the NW of there) before rain took over.

This rain/snow line is now on the move back to the southeast, toward Boston, but is in a race with the back edge of the heavier precipitation. The precip. will probably win the race, meaning as it turns cold enough to snow in the Boston area at the end of the afternoon into this evening, precipitation will be lighter and more scattered, with just periods of snow and minor accumulations (mainly under 1 inch). Nevertheless, the temperature drop can result in some slippery surfaces, especially smaller roads, walks, and driveways, so use caution when traveling later today and tonight.

The warm air did make it into areas south of Boston, with temperatures jumping in the lower and even middle 50s over southeastern MA down toward Cape Cod and Rhode Island. These areas also saw strong southwest winds which gusted into the 50 to 60 mph range, causing some localized damage.

In heavier rain areas, flooding has not been a major issue, with mostly minor flooding in localized areas. The quick movement of this storm has prevented more significant flooding.

As the storm moves away this evening, a wind shift to northwest will take places in all areas and winds will pick up to 20 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph likely. Some areas will see gusts over 50 mph. The strong wind may result in localized wind damage, and will certainly make it feel very cold, much colder than the 20s that are expected later at night. Fairly rapid freezing of standing water is expected, so keep this in mind also if you will be out and about tonight.

A quick look ahead reveals no major changes from this morning’s thinking. A dry & chilly Saturday is expected, with a sunny start and a cloudier finish. A few inches of snow are possible in about a 12 hour snow event from just after midnight to just after noon on Sunday. Quickly on the heals of this system will be another storm, this one rather strong, passing NW of New England Monday. This will bring windy, milder conditions with periods of rain. At this time, I expect precipitation totals for Monday to be a little lower than what has occurred today.

Updated Boston area forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers and minor snow accumulation early, then clearing. Low 20 to 25. Wind northwest 15 to 25 mph gusting 35 to 45 mph at times. A few gusts to 50 mph are possible.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. High 33 to 38. Wind northwest 10 to 20 mph early, becoming variable around 10 mph later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow mainly after midnight. Low 22 to 27. Wind north 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow in the morning with the potential for 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. High 30 to 35. Wind northeast 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperature rising through the 30s. Wind east 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, especially in the afternoon. High in the 40s.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. High in the 30s.

145AM

Three storms will affect the Boston area in the final days of February, the first one today, a second one Sunday, and a third on Monday. The 2 biggest ones will produce mainly rain in the Boston area. The first one will bring some snow to areas N & W of Boston, but the most serious snow will occur in central & northern New England.

The low pressure area that is storm #1 will cross New England from SW to NE during today. The track of this low will be just northwest of Boston. 6 to 12 inches of snow will occur in the ski areas of northern New England down as far as the Lakes region of central NH. Amounts will drop off to a few inches in southwestern NH. Up to an inch or so of snow is possible mainly at the end of the storm around Route 495 and possibly a coating into the 128 belt by Friday evening. Before that, precipitation in the Boston area will be mainly rain, and may fall heavily at times, with 1 to 2 inches of rain quite likely during the morning & early afternoon Friday, before tapering off and becoming more showery. With low pressure cutting NW of Boston, the immediate Boston area will get into the warm sector of the storm, and will probably see a brief spike in temperatures (see below for details). A few thunderstorms are possible in areas that bust into the warm air as the leading edge of colder air behind the storm will be quick to sweep in.

Storm #1 will wind down in terms of precipitation tonight with a few lingering snow showers. However, a period of very strong NW winds can be expected as cold air rushes into the region behind the departing low pressure area. Gusty winds but dry weather will continue through Saturday, along with colder conditions.

Storm #2 will cross the region Sunday, and will be in the form of weak low pressure passing just to the south of the area. Colder air in place means that this system should be a snow-producer, however it does not look like a major storm.

Storm #3 will follow quickly on the heels of #2, and will bring periods of rain & gusty winds Monday as low pressure passes well NW of Boston, putting the entire region on the warm side of it.

Look for a colder, drier start to March on Tuesday behind the 3rd in the series of storms.

Boston area forecast for the next 5 days…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, heaviest in the morning into midday. Rain becoming showery in the immediate Boston area, with even some thunderstorms possible, from midday through mid afternoon. Periods of rain will mix with snow far NW of Boston, near and outside of 495, where some minor accumulation is possible. This rain/snow line will start to push southeastward toward Boston very late in the day. High ranging from the upper 30s well NW of Boston to the lower 50s near and just south of Boston. Falling temperatures late in the day. Winds variable 5 to 15 mph well NW of Boston, southeast shifting to southwest 5 to 15 mph but gusting to 30 mph especially in the afternoon closer to and south of Boston, then shifting to northwest in most areas by the very end of the day.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers and minor snow accumulation early, then clearing. Low 20 to 25. Wind northwest 15 to 25 mph gusting 35 to 45 mph at times. A few gusts to 50 mph are possible.

SATURDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. High 33 to 38. Wind northwest 10 to 20 mph early, becoming variable around 10 mph later in the day.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow mainly after midnight. Low 22 to 27. Wind north 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Snow in the morning with the potential for 1 to 3 inches of accumulation. High 30 to 35. Wind northeast 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperature rising through the 30s. Wind east 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain, especially in the afternoon. High in the 40s.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. High in the 30s.

100AM

Hi everyone! Not much to add onto the previous discussion in terms of upcoming weather as the overall pattern is going about as expected. Fine-tuning a few things… High pressure brings tranquil weather today before it slips off to the east on Thursday and clouds move in an advance of a complex but not-too-strong weather system. This system will come in 2 parts, the first bringing a few rain or snow showers Thursday night, with a second, more organized area coming in with steadier precipitation on Friday.  There are significant differences in computer model forecasts about this Friday precipitation event, ranging from a mild rainstorm to a cold snowstorm. As many are doing, I am leaning in the milder direction, since high presssure will be located east of us, with a southerly wind ahead of the storm, rather than north of us, which would provide a northeast wind and lock in cold air.

A break is still expected Saturday before a weaker system bring some light snow or mix on Sunday. There continue to be indications of a stormy pattern to begin March, but more on this will come later.

For now, here’s an updated forecast for the Boston area…

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. High 35 to 40. Wind variable up to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 20 to 25 except teens some inland areas. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. High 43 to 48. Wind south 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with a few rain or snow showers possible. Low 31 to 36.  Wind southeast 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Rain likely in the morning, may begin as brief snow north and west of Boston. Rain tapering off in the afternoon with a few rain or snow showers in the evening. High in the 40s.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High in the 30s.

SUNDAY: Chance of light snow or mix. High in the 30s.

Updated at 130AM

The Week That Was…

Monday…The warm Valentines Day! A spring preview with temperatures in the 50s to around 60 despite some cloudiness.

Tuesday… Back to reality and then some. Arctic cold, 20s, and gusty winds making it feel colder!

Wednesday… Still chilly, but not as cold as the day before, but fairly tranquil.

Thursday & Friday… Spring preview, part 2! Highs in the 50s to low 60s with clouds & sun both days. Lots of melting snow! Thunderstorms Friday night with vivid lightning, loud thunder (see below), & strong winds, rain, some snow north of Boston, & even some hail.

Saturday… Powerful northwest winds causing damage in some areas, lots of clouds, a few snow flurries, and colder temperatures.

Sunday… Still breezy, but bright & dry, though a cold day!

Why was the thunder so loud Friday night? There are 3 answers. 1) Leafless trees do not absorb sound waves nearly as much as ones with full foliage. 2) Snow, which often muffles the sound of thunder when it’s falling or freshly soft in the ground, does just the opposite when it’s hard & crusty. It acts more like a cement floor, reflecting the sound waves, or allowing them to bounce along. 3) Most of the lightning bolts were of positive polarity. What does that mean? About 90% of lightning is of negative polarity, and to simplify this, let’s just look at cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. Negative strikes are occurring between negative charges near the base of the clouds and positive charges on the ground. Positive lightning, which accounts for about 10% of lightning, is much more powerful, as it is discharging between positive charges near the top of the clouds and negative charges around the edges and outside of the storm on the ground below. The distance between the charges is greater, resulting in a more powerful spark, or bolt of lightning. These kinds of lightning discharges cause the thunder that often rolls across the sky, rumbles for several seconds, even up to half a minute or more, and sometimes produces a bottom-out sound so low it shakes the ground & the house you are in.

The Week Ahead…

For some of you, the weekend continues tomorrow, as it is the Presidents Day holiday, but whether it’s the start of a new week for you or the end of your weekend has no influence on the weather. It’s going to snow, but not much. We’ve been advertising a snow threat for Monday for several days now, and it is going to verify. It will not be a big storm, however, as a relatively weak wave of low pressure will be sliding rapidly eastward, passing just south of New England. The snow in the Boston area will begin around 2AM or 3AM and last until around or shortly after noon. Expect a slightly earlier start time to the snow in areas to the west of the city. Impact from this system will be minimal, even thought its peak will be during the Monday commute, as many people will not be on the roads due to the holiday.  Snow amounts should range from less than 1 inch in southern New Hampshire to around 1 inch to locally 2 inches in most of eastern MA. Similar amounts are expected to the south and west, though a few amounts locally over 3 inches are possible anywhere south and west of Worcester. Isolated 4 or 5 inch amounts are about as high as we can see out of this storm, and that would most likely occur in CT or southwestern MA.

High pressure from the north will build into the region late Monday and continue to dominate into midweek. This will shunt a second wave of low pressure south of New England on Tuesday, which will be a bright but very windy & cold day. Temperatures will moderate and winds will be lighter on Wednesday, a splendid but chilly late winter day.

As high pressure slips off to the east on Thursday, milder temperatures are expected, but you’ll notice clouds on the approach in the afternoon as the next storm system gets ready to move in from the west. There are some uncertainties with how this system, and another potential follow up storm over the weekend will play out, because the tracks of both storms remain uncertain. My current feeling is that the Friday system will track over or just northwest of the Boston area, which is a mild scenario, making me lean in the rain direction. After a break on Saturday, the next system is due on Sunday. It’s a week out, but early indications are that this storm may be a colder one, with at least some snow/mix involved. We’ll fine tune the late week situation as it gets a little closer.

A detailed forecast for the Boston area follows below. Have a great week everybody!

Boston Area Forecast…

MONDAY: Cloudy with snow in the morning, average accumulation under 1 inch in southern NH, around 1 inch north of the Mass Pike, 1 to 3 inches south of the Mass Pike, with the greatest chance of the 3 inch amounts south of Worcester.  Breaking clouds the first half of the afternoon & becoming mostly sunny during the second half of the afternoon. High near 30. Wind north up to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 10 to 15. Wind northwest 15 to 25 mph. Wind chill near zero.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 25 to 30. Wind northwest 15 to 25 mph. Wind chill in the teens.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 10 to 15 except  5 to 10 inland valleys. Wind northwest diminishing to under 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. High 33 to 38. Wind variable around 10 mph.

THURSDAY: AM sunshine. PM clouds. Low 25. High 40.

FRIDAY: AM rain/mix. PM clearing. Low 35. High 50.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 35.

SUNDAY: Chance of snow/mix. Low 25. High 35.

444PM

If you were in eastern MA and parts of RI last night, you probably saw the bright lightning, heard the booming thunder, then heard and/or felt the wind which roared in on the heels of the departing storms. And that wind has kept up all night and all day today! Many locations have seen gusts over 50 mph with even some wind damage reported.

Here is a link to a list of wind gusts from various areas in southern New England: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=PNS

Also, a list of damage reports can be found here: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&product=LSR

Thanks to our friends at the National Weather Service in Taunton and the many spotters for the information.

This bout of interesting weather is likely a preview of an upcoming pattern that will feature several battles between airmasses, the next of which will take place Monday followed by another stretch of unsettled weather to end next week.

Along with the strong winds today, a few scattered light snow showers have been around, though most places have not seen them. Conditions will not really change that much through tonight. In fact, a second burst of stronger winds is now moving in after a brief, almost unnoticeable lull this afternoon. Expect lots of clouds, a few isolated light snow showers, and NW winds of 15-35 mph with gusts 40-50 mph (even a few 50+ gusts) through the evening hours, and a slight diminishing of wind and decreasing of clouds later at night.

Sunday, there may be some lingering clouds early as a final disturbance passes by, but unless you are an early-riser you would probably not even see these clouds. Expect most of the day to be dominated by sunshine, though a few scattered fair weather clouds may develop later in the morning into the afternoon. They will not be as widespread as today’s clouds. Gusty winds will continue especially through the early afternoon as we remain to the east of the axis of high pressure on the western edge of a strong gradient between this high just to the west and the low over the Canadian Maritimes.

By Sunday night, winds will drop rapidly to near calm but clouds will increase from west to east as low pressure moves toward the region. This low pressure area is expected to pass just south of New England on Monday, Presidents Day, with a snow event of about 12 hours duration, roughly 2am to 2pm for Boston, a bit earlier start & end to the west. At this point, I expect a general 1 to 4 inch snowfall from this event. This low pressure system will depart by Monday night, with skies becoming partly cloudy. There may be a few lingering snow showers Monday night and first thing Tuesday morning as an arctic cold front drops through the region from northwest to southeast. This front will deliver quite a shot of cold air for the second Tuesday in a row, with Tuesday expected to be a bright day, but with highs in the 20s and a strong northwest wind making it feel even colder.

High pressure from Canada will build southeastward across New England Tuesday night with clear skies, lighter winds, and very cold temperatures, but this same high will bring sunny skies for Wednesday with some recovery in temperature, back to the 30s in the afternoon, with continued lighter winds.

Thursday is expected to be a dry day, and slightly milder- fairly tranquil for this time of year. But that is not expected to last, as it now appears we will be in a battle zone between warmer weather over the southeastern US & very cold air in Canada, with a chance of rain and/or snow at times from Friday into next weekend.

Quick forecast for the Boston Area…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered light snow showers early. Partly cloudy late. Low 15-20. Wind northwest 15-30 mph with frequent gusts 35-45 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 30-35. Wind northwest 15-25 mph with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow from around 2AM on. Low 25-30. Wind light variable.

MONDAY –  PRESIDENTS DAY: Overcast with snow through about 2PM, accumulation 1-4 inches. Breaking clouds late in the day but still a few lingering snow showers possible. High 30-35. Wind north 5-10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with scattered snow showers. Low 15-20. Wind north 10-20 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy with isolated snow showers early, then mostly sunny. High 23-28. Wind north to northwest 15-25 mph with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 10-15 . Wind northwest 5-15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. High 35-40. Wind variable up to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 42.

FRIDAY & SATURDAY: Chance of rain and/or snow. Lows 25-35. Highs 35-45.

715PM

The end of the spring preview is approaching. A cold front is moving across New England and is setting off showers, and even a few possible thunderstorms, which are marching across MA now.

These showers and possible thunderstorms will cross eastern MA and far southern NH through 900pm. Brief moderate to heavy rain is possible.

Later tonight, showers will end, clouds will break, but winds will pick up, and get quite strong overnight. This will continue Saturday, and with colder air moving in, some scattered snow showers are possible.

Detailed blog for the holiday weekend will appear later tonight or first thing Saturday morning! Quick look at the weekend:

SATURDAY: Mixed sun/clouds, windy, colder, high near 40 but falling through the 30s. Scattered snow showers.

SUNDAY: Sunshine, clouds late, chilly. High in the 30s.

MONDAY – PRESIDENTS DAY: A few inches of snow possible.

730AM

Good morning all!

Sorry again for the lack of posts. A bit under the weather this week…

Near 60 today in the Boston area. Enjoy if you can!

Back to reality this weekend including strong wind Saturday! Might it snow by Presidents Day?

Full update coming later today. Have a great one!

430PM

Boston Area Weather Update…

I hope you all enjoyed what you could of the unseasonably mild Valentine’s Day. Temperatures reached or exceeded 50 in much of the area, but this is about to come to an abrupt end. A bank of clouds has rolled back across the sky from the WNW during the past hour, along the leading edge of a very cold airmass that will charge into the region tonight. A few rain showers may occur in the next couple hours ahead of the very cold air. Once the front passes, other than an isolated snow shower, expect dry but much colder and very windy conditions to quickly establish themselves tonight! Temperatures will plunge through the 40s, 30s, 20s, and into the teens during the night. Wind shifting to northwest will increase to 15-30 mph but gusts will exceed 40 mph. Wind chill values will be near zero by dawn.

Tuesday, except a bright day with 100% sunshine, but a strong northwest wind and arctic air will combine to make high temperatures in the lower to middle 20s feel more like single numbers & teens. Wind chills may even drop below zero at times. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph can be expected!

Winds will settle down gradually Tuesday night, and under a clear sky, temperatures which were only near 20 by the end of the day Tuesday will drop to around 10 during the overnight hours. If the wind went completely calm, some areas outside of urban centers and away from the coast would head for zero. But it looks like enough wind will blow to keep the air mixed up. The wind will make it feel like zero anyway, so a calm wind and air temperature of zero would probably feel better than a windy zero!

Wednesday, partly cloudy skies are expected as warmer air begins to move back in above us, and a slight warming trend begins at the surface as well. Highs will climb into the 30s with a lighter wind from the west, mostly around 10 mph.

A more genuine warmup is expected Thursday & Friday with highs in the 40s Thursday and probably getting into the lower 50s in many areas on Friday (similar to today). A southwest wind will begin to freshen and may gust over 25 mph by Friday. These days will see some decent snowmelt, but not too fast, so flooding will not be a problem.

You know even the next warmup cannot last forever, since it’s still mid February. And this is true. A cold front will cross the region Friday night with a few rain showers, and Saturday will be a partly cloudy, windy day. It still be cooler Saturday, with highs in the lower 40s, but a secondary front will cross the region at night with a possible snow shower, and Sunday should be a bright & colder day with high temps in the lower 30s.

The next blog will update conditions expected for this week and take a peek into next week!

400PM

Is it Sunday already? Time for a look ahead at the next 7 days!

Yes, we’re still in a bit of a roller coaster temperature pattern, which will continue for 2 more days. We’ve had a slightly milder weekend, though today is a little cooler than Saturday was. Some of you in the Boston area may have noticed a little very light snow falling early this afternoon as a warm front slid across the region. This front will be pushing north of this area tonight, into northern New England, and will provide focus for a Valentines Day snowfall in the northern ski areas. In southern New England, Valentines Day will be mainly dry, with only a slight chance of a rain shower during the day and a snow shower at night as we will be in the warm sector south of a passing low pressure area. A cold front will charge across the region at night, setting us up for a bright but very cold Tuesday.

A warming trend begins on Wednesday, and will last through Friday. These 3 days will see varying amounts of clouds, but no precipitation. Some areas may see 50 degree temperatures, or possibly even higher. Which day will this occur? The answer is below.

A peek at next weekend shows that Saturday should be a windy day with possibly a rain shower to start the day as mild air departs the region, leading to a bright but colder Sunday. Oh and since next weekend is a long weekend for some of you, how about a quick bonus peek at Presidents Day (Monday February 21). It may snow. But after all, it is February…

Details for the Boston area go like this…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Temperature holding steady in the middle 30s. Wind southwest up to 15 mph.

MONDAY – VALENTINES DAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated light rain showers. High in the lower to middle 40s. Wind southwest 10-20 mph gusting around 25 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated snow showers early, then clearing. Low near 20. Wind northwest 15-25 mph. Wind chill below 10 at times.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the upper 20s, about 30 in Boston. Wind northwest 10-20 mph but gusting to near 30 mph at times.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low from near 10 inland to near 20 along the coast. Wind northwest 5-15 mph diminishing.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. High near 40.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low near 30.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. High in the upper 40s.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low in the middle 30s.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. High in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Low in the upper 30s.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. High in the lower 40s.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low in the middle 20s.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the lower 30s.

730PM

As we continue to transition out of the stormy pattern of January & early February, we will see a period of up and down temperatures during the next 5 days. Beyond that, we will see an upswing in temperatures for at least a couple days.

Winter cold was in firm hold of the area today, but along with plenty of sunshine. The continued cold weather has only solidified the still very deep snowpack, which is now hard & icy. A milder day is on tap for Saturday, though clouds will also be more dominant. A few light rain or snow showers may occur ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will cross the region Saturday night, making Sunday a little colder. A clipper-type disturbance will move eastward from the Great Lakes across northern New England later Sunday into Monday. Its warm front will cross the region late Sunday, probably producing a period of light snow, especially in northern New England but even in parts of southern New England. Behind this warm front will be milder temperatures for Valentines Day, before a cold front comes through later in the day sending another batch of cold air into New England by Tuesday.

A more significant warmup will get underway late Wednesday when temperatures will go above freezing after remaining below freezing from Monday night through Wednesday morning. But this warmup will be more noticeable Thursday through Friday of next week.

Details of Boston area weather…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 15-20 inland, 20-25 Boston & coast. Wind light west.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few rain or snow showers during the afternoon. High 35-40. Wind southwest 5-15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 20-25. Wind west 5-15 mph shifting to northwest with gusts up to 25 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of light snow from late morning into mid afternoon with accumulation of under 1 inch. High 30-35. Wind variable around 10 mph.

MONDAY: AM rain or snow showers. Late day snow squall? Low 30. High 42.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 25.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 15. High 37.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 45.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 51.

125am

As I write this entry late at night, a low, bowl-shaped moon hangs just above the western horizon, yellowish white, in a clear winter sky. It reminds me of the final page of a book that had alot of turmoil in it, but a peaceful ending, sort of ending one story and ready to start another. This is about where we are in the weather right now.

We are now officially out of the stormy pattern. However, that doesn’t  mean days and days of fair, warm weather. After all, it’s still February! But that doesn’t mean we won’t see some mild temperatures in the near-future. There will be a bit of a roller coaster ride with temperatures during the next week as a series of weak disturbances pass through the region. None of these appear to have much chance of producing significant precipitation.

Breaking things down, expect a bright & very cold start to the day on Friday with early morning temperatures ranging from the single numbers to lower teens, least cold along the coast and in the city of Boston. Later in the day, some clouds will move in, but they will not produce any snow. Highest temperatures will probably fall just shy of freezing, topping out around 30 in the Boston area.

Friday night will feature varying amounts of clouds, and temperatures not quite as cold as the previous night, bottoming out in the upper teens over inland areas to the middle 20s in downtown Boston.

A series of disturbances will pass through the region Saturday through Monday, the first being a cold front on Saturday which will bring a fair amount of clouds and a few scattered snow showers – greatest chance in the afternoon. A couple ripples of low pressure moving through during Sunday & early Monday will produce periods of light snow over northern New England, with up to a few inches possible in the mountains, and just some scattered rain and snow showers in southern New England.

Late Monday & Tuesday, expect a return to dry but breezy & chilly weather. After daytime highs in the 30s to around 40 Saturday-Sunday and possibly in the lower 40s Monday, it will chill back to the teens Monday night and climb back to only the lower 30s Tuesday.

A midweek warmup appears likely, along with dry weather but some varying clouds. High temperatures in the lower to middle 40s can be expected Wednesday. Temperatures in the 40s will be common Thursday, though some areas may make a run at 50. Milder temperatures, and the lack of storminess during these days will promote slow snow-melt, relieving stress on roofs and removing some of the snowpack that could potentially add to flooding problems as Spring arrives.

Mild weather is expected to be replaced by a chill once again as the long gets underway.

There are signs that the southern jet stream may activate toward the end of this month. And this is only speculation right now, but it means we could see a return to a stormy pattern late this month.

410pm

It looks like we have reached a break in the stormy pattern that has gone on for 6 weeks. The blocking pattern that forced cold air southward into the eastern US and storms down toward the Gulf of Mexico and often up the East Coast has broken down, and will be replaced by a more zonal (west to east) flow in the upper levels during the next week. This will be slow to occur, with a broad trough translating eastward across the Great Lakes & Northeast during the next few days, bringing drier but cold weather to New England.

Slightly milder weather will visit the region starting on the weekend. But don’t expect completely sunny weather. A couple disturbances passing through the region may produce some snow showers and even a period of light snow.

Boston Area Forecast…

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 25-30. Wind southwest 10-20 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 10-15. Wind west 5-15 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 20-25. Wind northwest 5-15 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 11. High 32.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM snow showers. Low 19. High 38.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow. Low 24. High 35.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 23. High 34.

700am

Light snow, except mix coast, will be ending during this morning.

A period of snow showers this afternoon may produce moderate to briefly heavy snow that could accumulate 1/2 to 1 inch in some areas, temporarily reducing visibility and slicking up roads. This will occur along the leading edge of a cold airmass that will bring cold but dry weather for midweek.

Full blog update later this afternoon!