5:26PM

Well, it is upon us. The 2nd holiday weekend of the summer, or the big 4th of July weekend. Even when July 4th is in the middle of the week, we find a way to make a weekend out of it. But this year, it’s a Monday, connected to a weekend, so we don’t face such a major problem now, do we… In fact, since July 1st is a Friday and touches a weekend, we may as well just make it a 4-day weekend! Or even further, if you’re lucky enough to have vacation time, like myself, your weekend is going to be longer than 4 days, perhaps 10? Mine is. 🙂

Anyway, on to the weather. A pool of chilly air aloft has promoted the development of some clouds today, but other than a few sprinkles in the hills well northwest of Boston, it’s been a dry day. As this cool pool exits very slowly Friday, it will still be close enough to allow some clouds to pop up again during the day, with a slight chance of a few showers. High pressure will build along the East Coast over the weekend, allowing warmer and more humid air to flow into New England. But a cold front approaching from the west may set off a few showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. For the holiday itself, Monday, high pressure will dominate with dry and warm weather! A fairly normal July pattern is expected for the balance of next week.

Boston area forecast…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early. Mostly clear late. Low ranging from the lower 50s over inland valley locations to the lower 60s in the urban centers. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny in the morning. Partly sunny with a slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Wind N 10 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind light W.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. High in the middle 80s. Wind W to SW 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low in the upper 60s. Wind SW 5 to 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. High in the middle 80s. Wind SW 10 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Low in the lower 60s. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly cloudy. High in the middle 80s. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 82.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 87.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. High 83.

7:19AM

TODAY: Sunny into mid morning. Sun mixed with developing cumulus clouds late morning through afternoon. Slight risk of a sprinkle or light shower mainly over hills of northern Worcester County MA or southwestern NH. High from the middle 70s over higher elevations to lower 80s along the coastal plain. Wind W 10 to 15 mph gusting to 20 mph.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clearing. Low ranging from the lower 50s over inland valley areas to the lower 60s in the urban centers. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. High in the lower 80s. Wind N around 10 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms. Low 67. High 85.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms. Low 67. High 87.

MONDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 86.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 67. High 85.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms. Low 66. High 86.

8:45PM

Low pressure passing north of New England through Wednesday will drag couple fronts and troughs across the region. For this reason, there will be some risk of showers and thunderstorms from late today through late Wednesday afternoon. A pool of cool air aloft will still be nearby on Thursday, so even though I don’t have them in the forecast at this point, there may still be a shower threat, especially over the hills of north central MA and southwestern NH. But overall, a great stretch of weather will be getting underway on Thursday, and will last through the 4th of July weekend! More summery air will dominate the region as July begins, though I do not see any excessive heat at this time.

Here are the details for eastern MA and nearby RI & southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11PM. Patchy fog after 3AM. Low 62 to 67. Wind S up to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Patchy fog with scattered showers and thunderstorms until 10AM. Isolated showers and thunderstorms after noon. High 78 to 83. Wind SW up to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 57 to 62. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80. Wind W 10 to 20 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 82.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 84.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 87.

MONDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 84.

6:25PM

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 60 to 65. Wind S under 10 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny through mid afternoon. Partly sunny late afternoon. Mostly cloudy evening with a slight chance of a few drops of light rain falling around sunset. High 78 to 83 except cooler along some coastal areas. Wind S to SE around 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Low 61 to 66. Wind S 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of lingering showers very early morning. Becoming mostly sunny mid morning through early afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy mid afternoon. Partly to mostly sunny late afternoon through early evening. High 75 to 80. Wind W 10 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 77 to 82. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY (7-1): Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

SATURDAY (7-2): Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 82.

SUNDAY (7-3): Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 83.

MONDAY (7-4): Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 85.

11:35PM

Tonight, as we get ready to start the week that is the last 4 days of June, the first few days of July, including 4th of July Weekend, I think we’ll just skip over the techno-babble and keep the discussion short, then get to the Boston area forecast for many days…

High pressure means nice weather Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure passes north of us and drags a frontal system across the region with showers/thunderstorms Tuesday night and very early Wednesday. High pressure returns with great summer weather Thursday & Friday as June ends and July begins. The 4th of July Weekend? I’m leaning in the direction of warm and more humid weather, not excessively hot, with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, but no widespread rain. We will have to watch a frontal system to the north, however.

OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Low 58 to 63. Wind W under 10 mph.

MONDAY: Partly sunny with a very slight risk of an isolated brief shower. High 79 to 84. Wind W up to 10 mph shifting to S by late afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 60 to 65. Wind S under 10 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny through mid afternoon. Partly sunny late afternoon. Mostly cloudy evening with a slight chance of a few drops of light rain falling around sunset. High 78 to 83 except cooler along some coastal areas. Wind S to SE around 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Low 61 to 66. Wind S 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of lingering showers very early morning. Becoming mostly sunny mid morning through early afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy mid afternoon. Partly to mostly sunny late afternoon through early evening. High 75 to 80. Wind W 10 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 55 to 60. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 77 to 82. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY (7-1): Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 83.

SATURDAY (7-2): Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 82.

SUNDAY (7-3): Partly sunny. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 83.

MONDAY (7-4): Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 85.

1:38PM

I think the fact that the clouds and cool air are so stubborn here in eastern New England may prevent showers and storms from reaching most areas at least through the early evening. The atmosphere cannot destabilize now that one disturbance is gone, another is yet to arrive, and we don’t have very much sun.

The rest of this message is a copy/edit of the previous forecast:

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON: Cloudy to partly sunny. Temperatures holding in the 60s, coolest near the shore. Wind variable up to 10 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms until midnight, then breaking clouds. Low 60 to 65. Wind variable to W around 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80 but cooler in some coastal areas. Wind W to N 5 to 15 mph but some local coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 83.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. PM showers. Low 61. High 80.

WEDNESDAY: AM showers. PM clearing. Low 64. High 83.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 81.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 83.

8:29AM

A cluster of thunderstorms is moving through eastern MA and coastal NH this morning and will be moving offshore late this morning. A cold front moving through the region later today into tonight will trigger additional showers and storms, possibly with the help of some sunshine that is expected to break out by midday in some locations.

Updated Boston area forecast…

SATURDAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle along with scattered thunderstorms through mid morning. Partly sunny late morning into afternoon but developing scattered showers and thunderstorms especially mid to late afternoon. High 70 to 75. Wind variable 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Partial clearing late. Low 60 to 65. Wind variable to W around 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85 but cooler in some coastal areas. Wind W to N 5 to 15 mph but some local coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 83.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. PM showers. Low 61. High 80.

WEDNESDAY: AM showers. PM clearing. Low 64. High 83.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 81.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 83.

7:31PM

A flow of air off the Atlantic has kept us cool, cloudy, and drizzly much of the day and this will keep big thunderstorms from firing up and moving into the region this evening, as they may very well have done if we were not in this air mass. Showers should hold off in most locations of eastern MA until after 10PM. Before then, there will be some areas of fog and drizzle, under an overcast sky.

What’s up this weekend? I think we try to break out a little on Saturday but any sun that does burn through the clouds would just destabilize the atmosphere and allow showers and storms to fire up. Also, a couple fronts and troughs moving through will provide lift for shower activity even without sun. I don’t expect a washout, but not the best day. By Sunday, high pressure building overhead should allow for more sunshine and warmer air.

A peek at next week: Summer!

Boston area forecast details…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle at any time. Showers mainly after 10PM. Slight chance of a thunderstorm after midnight. Wind E 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with areas of fog and drizzle along with isolated showers through mid morning. Partly sunny late morning into afternoon but developing scattered showers and thunderstorms especially mid to late afternoon. High 70 to 75. Wind variable 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Partial clearing late. Low 60 to 65. Wind variable to W around 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 80 to 85 but cooler in some coastal areas. Wind W to N 5 to 15 mph but some local coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 83.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. PM showers. Low 61. High 80.

WEDNESDAY: AM showers. PM clearing. Low 64. High 83.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 81.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 83.

3:34PM

THROUGH EVENING: Cloudy with showers likely. Pockets of heavier rain and a possible thunderstorm are most likely before 5:00PM. Temperatures holding in the upper 60s. Light wind.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and a chance of a few thunderstorms. Low 60 to 65. Wind SE to E 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain in the morning. Isolated showers during the afternoon. High 65 to 70. Wind E 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Slight chance of showers. Low 60 to 65. Wind light E.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and isolated showers in the morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 68 to 73. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 63. High 79.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 80.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 82.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 83.

10:58PM

Don’t let the headline scare you. We are not heading into a long-lasting period of crappy weather, just heading into a few days of unsettled weather and below normal temperatures. I already see a nice stretch of weather following this. And the coming weekend will not be a total loss, in fact, it may end up quite nice overall.

High pressure is hanging on, battling with approaching low pressure from the west. A warm front will position itself just south of New England later Wednesday, Thursday, into Friday.  Warm and muggy air south of this front will be riding up and over relatively cooler, drier air we have had in place over us, and this will lead to mostly cloudy, showery conditions from later Wednesday night, off and on through Friday. A cold front will try to sweep it all out of here late Friday, but it will take until a second front passes on Saturday to really get things moving.

Details forecast for the Boston area…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 60 to 65 except some upper 50s inland rural areas. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. High 73 to 78. Wind light SE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain, mainly after 10PM, heaviest after midnight. Low 60 to 65. Wind SE to E 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain in the morning. Isolated showers during the afternoon. High 65 to 70. Wind E 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Slight chance of showers. Low 60 to 65. Wind light E.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and isolated showers in the morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 68 to 73. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 63. High 79.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 80.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 82.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 83.

11:37PM

There are no changes to the thinking on the discussion from yesterday, so here is just an updated forecast for the Boston area…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low from near 50 inland rural areas to near 60 coastal and urban areas. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80. Wind variable up to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 60 to 65 Wind S up to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. High 75 to 80. Wind S 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY: AM rain / PM showers. Low 61. High 73.

FRIDAY: Showers & thunderstorms. Low 67. High 74.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 63. High 78.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 82.

7:03PM

High pressure will remain over New England for the next couple days then slowly push offshore by midweek, allowing low pressure to approach slowly from the west. This setup gives fair weather through Wednesday, then unsettled weather Thursday and Friday. As we get to next weekend, the question to be answered is how fast will the low pressure area move out? So far, I’m somewhat optimistic, but with many days to go, I’ll look at it daily and fine-tune the forecast as needed.

The details for the Boston area for the next 7 days for now go this way…

TONIGHT: Clearing. Low ranging from the upper 40s over inland valleys to near 60 in Boston, 50s most locations. Wind NW under 10 mph.

MONDAY: Sunny. High 78 to 83. Wind variable up to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 60 to 65. Wind S up to 10 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 75 to 80. Wind variable up to 10 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 60 to 65 Wind S up to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. High 80 to 85. Wind S 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY: AM rain / PM clouds & sun. Low 63. High 83.

FRIDAY: Showers & thunderstorms. Low 67. High 79.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 63. High 78.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 82.

High pressure will build right over New England today with fantastic, warm, dry weather for Father’s Day! This nice weather will last into the beginning of the new week as well, possibly into midweek, as high pressure is slow to move away. A disturbance will have to be watched on Tuesday as it may send a batch of clouds and potential showers down over the region from the northwest.

A low pressure area is expected to bring some unsettled weather later in the week, and current indications are that this is most likely to occur during the Thursday-Friday period. Hopefully this will clear out of here in time for next weekend to be nicer once again.

Boston Area Forecast Details…

TODAY: Sunshine may be filtered at times by a few high clouds. High 80 to 85. Wind N 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 54 to 59 except 60 to 65 coastal and urban areas. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Sunny. High 77 to 82. Wind variable 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 77.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 84.

THURSDAY: Chance of rain. Low 62. High 73.

FRIDAY:  Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 76.

6:45PM

(This is an update of the previous post. A full new blog update will appear Saturday morning.)

A weak front will hang around into Saturday, providing focus for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from time to time. High pressure will build over New England Sunday (Father’s Day)  and Monday with fair weather dominating.

Conditions should be mostly favorable on Saturday for the Boston Bruins victory parade, with only a slight risk of a pop up shower occurring along the parade route. Congratulations Boston Bruins, 2011 Stanley Cup Champions!

Boston area forecast details…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 60 to 65. Wind SW 10 to 15 mph, higher gusts at times.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High 74 to 79. Wind variable 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 58 to 63. Wind NW up to 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 77 to 82. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 62. High 82.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 64. High 86.

THURSDAY: Chance of thunderstorms. Low 66. High 84.

10:43PM

TONIGHT: Cloudy. A few showers and patchy drizzle. Low 48 to 53. Wind N up to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Clearing. High 69 to 74. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 44 to 49 inland valleys, 50 to 55 most other areas. Wind calm.

THURSDAY: Sunny. High 78 to 83. Wind S 5 to 10 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Low 59. High 74.

SATURDAY: Clearing. Low 55. High 77.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 81.