4:35PM

Here is an update on the forecast for the Boston area, reflecting no major changes in thinking through Thursday, despite some forecasts of clearing on Wednesday. Not buying that yet. I am, however, slightly more encouraged by what I see regarding the end of the week. I’ll slide toward a more optimistic solution for this update but confidence is still on the low side.

THROUGH WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and a few periods of rain, with the greatest chance for periods of rain coming from later Tuesday to midday Wednesday. Lows 51 to 56. Highs 56 to 61. Wind NE to N 5 to 15 mph with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Clearing. Low 54. High 77.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 58. High 75.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 77.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 57. High 81.

7:33PM

The heat will take a vacation this week as low pressure is the dominant force in New England’s weather. One low will sit and spin off the coast for the next 3 or 4 days (drifting away by Thursday), keeping the region unsettled and cool. Another low pressure area will set up shop south of New England at the end of the week, but it is unclear how close it will be and how much of an impact it will have. The forecast confidence drops off late in the week due to this uncertainty, so stay tuned for updates as we go through the week.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 50 to 55.  Wind N up to 10 mph.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog. Isolated showers. High 60 to 65. Wind NE 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog. Isolated showers. Low 52 to 57. Wind E 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. High 57 to 62. Wind NE to N 10 to 20 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 53. High 59.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 53. High 72.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 57. High 71.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 57. High 74.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 58. High 77.

9:00PM

The calendar may not say it, but if you have any memory of June/July 2009, you may think we are back there over the next few days.

I’ll save an in depth discussion for tomorrow’s week ahead outlook and only torture you with a Boston area forecast for now…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Showers. Chance of a thunderstorm. Low 55 to 60. Wind light E.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Showers/thunderstorms returning from west to east during the early evening hours. High 60 to 65. Wind E-SE 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Showers and thunderstorms early. Patchy fog and drizzle late. Otherwise mostly cloudy. Low 54 to 59. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph shifting to N.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. High 60 to 65. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/drizzle. Low 51. High 60.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/drizzle. Low 52. High 59.

THURSDAY: Clearing. Low 55. High 80.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms. Low 59. High 77.

12:30PM

Well folks, I tried to be optimistic and that forecast just isn’t working out. Everything is displaced a little further south and I expected, so most of MA gets the rain that I expected to be further west and north, and now I have my doubts about really busting into the warm air on Sunday as well. Updating the forecast to reflect these changes…

THROUGH SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy. Periods of showers and possible thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Temperature ranging from the upper 50s to the upper 60s, coolest along the coast. Wind E to SE 5 to 15 mph.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 57. High 69.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 56. High 73.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 81.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 60. High 83.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 62. High 80.

3:33PM

My apologies for the late update. I know many of you have been looking forward to a weekend forecast update. I wrote one earlier that was lost 1 second before upload, so this is take 2!

Boston Area Discussion: The heat of yesterday is a memory. Winds have shifted to northeast during the day today, but lingering moisture and a disturbance passing by, along with the push of cooler air, have all combined to result in a lot of clouds popping up. Winds will continue onshore tonight into Saturday, with clouds dominant, and cooler temperatures. An approaching warm front will set off areas of rain, but these are expected to stay mainly west and north of Boston, possibly even outside the 128/495 belt for much of the day and evening Saturday. A finger of rain may extend down into Metro Boston for a brief time on Saturday, but most areas in the immediate Boston area and on south and east will remain dry during the day and evening hours. Later at night, a more concentrated area of showers and possible thunderstorms will cross much of the region, but this should be on the exit by mid morning Sunday. It is a close call, but right now I am going with the warm front pushing all the way through the Boston area during late Sunday morning. This would put an end to the shower activity and even allow some sun to develop. Temperatures would warm well into the 70s where there is enough sun, and even touch 80 in a few locations, in contrast to the 60s that we would hold onto if the front remained to the south and west and we stayed cloudy & showery. A cold front will come along from the west by Sunday evening, setting off another round of showers and thunderstorms. Check later updates for the timing on these as the event gets closer.

Boston Area Forecast through the weekend…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 55 to 60. Wind E under 10 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Chance of rain in the afternoon and evening mainly along and outside Route 495 and mostly north of the Mass Pike. Dry most locations. High 65 to 70 coast, 70 to 75 inland. Wind E to SE around 10 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain north and west of Boston early. Showers and thunderstorms developing from west to east later on, mostly after 11PM. Low 60 to 65. Wind SE around 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely until mid morning, ending west to east, then becoming partly sunny midday and afternoon. Heavier clouds may return from west to east by evening with a chance of another round of showers/thunderstorms. High 75 to 80, but cooler along most coastal areas. Wind variable around 10 mph early, becoming SW and increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

A Look At Next Week…

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 57. High 69.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 56. High 73.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 81.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 83.

FRIDAY: Chance of showers. Low 62. High 80.

3:20PM

With the morning storms well out of the way, some sunshine has heated things up, and made the atmosphere ripe for more storms as a cold front slices into our short-lived burst of heat. These storms have already formed during the past couple hours over NY State & VT, and a solid squall line (as of 3:15PM) runs from west central NH across southern VT and into NY, including the northwest corner of MA. This line is expected to march east southeast, crossing eastern MA between 5PM & 7PM, a bit later toward far southeastern MA including Cape Cod & the Islands. This line has the potential to produce strong winds with some straight-line wind damage and an isolated downburst. Torrential rain, some hail, and of course, dangerous lightning can be expected with this line.

From experience, this setup often results in the strongest part of the line running along and south of the Mass Pike, with areas to the north of the Pike and into southern NH seeing less widespread powerful storms. This may occur today, but regardless of where you are, do NOT let your guard down until the storms has passed by.

I will update again as needed with any changes, and a full Boston area forecast will be posted this evening. A quick look ahead suggests a mild, dry Friday, and a cool and unsettled weekend.

Be safe everybody!

9:15PM

A complex of thunderstorms from Upstate NY merged with cells over eastern NY in the last couple hours, to form a complex of storms moving rapidly east southeast across VT, western NH, western MA, and western CT. Some of these storms have been severe with damaging straight-line winds. Some have produced hail and heavy rain. Though most of the storms are showing a weakening trend, part of this complex may hold together as it moves east southeast into the Boston area in the next 2 hours. These storms are moving very rapidly, over 50 mph forward speed. A shower or thunderstorm may occur especially west and north of Boston. Some of you may see a period of gusty winds, even if you do not see any showers or storms. Later tonight, all will be quiet. See the previous post for the remainder of the forecast…

3:15PM

The heat is turning up today, inland anyway. Along the shore, a cooling sea breeze has taken over. As of 3:00PM, Boston’s Logan Airport is a comfortable 72 with a wind off the water, while inland, temperatures in the 80s to near 90 are common. The humidity is on the increase, but is not too high as of yet. That humidity will continue to increase tonight through most of the day tomorrow, and the heat will be on in all areas tomorrow due to a southwest wind. Some instability due to the boundary of the ocean breeze and the inland warmth, along with a minor disturbance, may set off a few isolated showers or thunderstorms this evening. An approaching cold front will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms to the region Thursday afternoon and evening. At this time, I still do not see any widespread severe weather with this, but any storms that do form can still become strong to locally severe. The main threat appears to be torrential downpours which could cause localized flash flooding. However, most people will not see this tomorrow.

High pressure pushes in Friday with a change to cooler and drier weather. And this trend continues Saturday with still cooler air but dry weather. Low pressure will bring unsettled and continued cool conditions on Sunday. This cooler than normal air that establishes itself over the weekend is expected to continue early next week as well.

Details…

THROUGH 9:00PM… Mostly clear to partly cloudy and hazy. Slight risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms, though most locations will remain dry. Temperatures in the 70s along the shore may jump up to near 80 before sunset. Temperatures in the 80s inland. Wind variable up to 10 mph, with seabreezes near the coast until shortly before sunset.

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear, hazy, warm, and humid. Low 65 to 70. Wind SW up to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Hazy sunshine, hot, and humid. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. High 92 to 97. Wind SW 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early. Clear late. Cooler and less humid. Low 60 to 65. Wind NW around 10 mph.

FRIDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. High 76 to 81. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 58. High 73.

SUNDAY: Chance of light rain in the morning, showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Low 56. High 66.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 55. High 68.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 54. High 71.

11:47PM

A strong ridge of high pressure, like mid summer, will bring a blast of heat and humidity to the region during the next couple of days. A cold front will slice through this air mass late Thursday, setting off some thunderstorms, before ushering in cooler and less humid air by Friday. The weekend will see the cooling trend continue, but low pressure moving into the region is expected to bring us wet weather for the 2nd half of the weekend.

Detailed forecast for the Boston area…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 60 to 65. Wind SW under 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Increasingly hazy and humid. High 88 to 93. Wind SW up to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear but hazy. Warm and muggy. Low 65 to 70. Wind light SW.

THURSDAY: Hazy sunshine, hot and humid. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing from NW to SE during the afternoon, any of which could be strong to severe. Widespread severe weather is not expected. High 94 to 99. Wind SW 10 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms early, then partly cloudy, warm but slightly less humid. Low 65 to 70. Wind SW 5 to 15 mph shifting to NW.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny, warm and drier. High 79 to 84. Wind NW to W 5 to 15 mph.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 76.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 55. High 65.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 55. High 64.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 52. High 71.

10:20PM

Low pressure east of New England has kept us cool but the low has been far enough away to keep us generally dry during the weekend. Only a few showers have pushed into some areas Sunday evening. Similar weather is expected Monday, with a chilly start to the day but a milder finish, sunshine & some clouds, and a slight risk of a few showers. A weak area of high pressure will push into the region Tuesday with dry weather, sun to start and clouds to finish as a warm front approaches from the southwest. This front may bring some showers and storms to the region Tuesday night and early Wednesday, after which a period of more summertime weather will be with us into late week. A cold front moving into the region Thursday may set off more thunderstorms, but it won’t be until a secondary front passes Friday night or early Saturday that we see a cool-down.

Details for the Boston area…

TONIGHT: Becoming partly cloudy. Any showers in the western suburbs dissipating. Low 50 to 55. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of a shower especially away from the coast during the afternoon. High 71 to 76, cooler at the coast. Wind NE up to 10 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 51 to 56. Wind SE up to 10 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. High 71 to 76, cooler along the coast. Wind SE 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 56 to 61. Wind SE to S up t0 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the morning. Becoming mostly sunny in the afternoon. High 81 to 86. Wind SW 5 to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Hazy sunshine. PM t-storms. Low 66. High 89.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 86.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 56. High 77.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 78.

8:10PM

NOW: Rain showers in central and eastern Worcester County and western Middlesex County are moving to the south southeast and will likely dissipate during the next few hours.

I am writing The Week Ahead blog now, and it will be posted by 10:15PM!

8:30PM

Cool & Dry! A very weekend for most activities, maybe a bit chilly for the beach though!

At least it is favorable for cleanup operations in western and central MA.

Here is a quick update on the forecast for the next several days for the Boston area…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50 suburbs, 50 to 55 urban areas. Wind light N.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. High 65 to 70. Wind E up to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 52 to 57. Wind SE up to 10 mph.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. High 70 to 75. Wind S 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 54. High 72.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 77.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. PM t-storms. Low 60. High 88.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 80.

12:00PM

Greetings from an outdoor location somewhere north of Boston. A quick forecast update for the area…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly sunny. High 73. Wind W 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 45 to 50. Wind NW 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. High 70 to 75. Wind N 10 to 20 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 54. High 74.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 56. High 75.

Next update looks into next week.

Not most importantly, but firstly, my sincere apologies to all for both getting the forecast quite wrong today and then not being around to explain why and correct it! I trust that most of you found good coverage both on the blog via the users, and on local TV.

I will post a new forecast later tonight, but for now we’ll just sit and let the final cluster of storms move through.

Props to Charlie for your good forecast and JJ for excellent updates, and to many others. I have not had time to read through all of them yet. I will let you all continue to post here for this evening, and I’ll be back to chime in later, and then update.

Good news: Quiet weather ahead for a few days!

Hope you all are safe tonight. 🙂