6:30PM

Good evening Woods Hill Weather readers! I hope you are enjoying this blog and getting useful info out of it. If you haven’t commented yet, please do so! You can use any name you like (keep it clean), and your email is needed only once for approval (nobody else will see it).

First, I’m going to address the storm threat that continues through the evening hours, then we’ll look ahead to the rest of the week to see how hot it may get and if there will be any other storms, and of course a peek at the weekend (it’s never too early to think about the weekend, is it?).

We have seen several bands of showers and a few thunderstorms roll through southern New England from NW to SE today. Strong to severe storms have been very limited, however, up to this point. Extensive cloud cover and rain-cooled air has prevented the atmosphere from becoming very unstable. However, with a frontal system still to our north, and having to move through the muggy and somewhat unstable air  mass in place, I cannot rule out thunderstorms until sometime between 8PM and 11PM from north to south across southern NH and eastern MA. There are storms in upstate NY and northern New England sinking to the S & SE. Some of these, or other storms that form, may make it down into southern New England during the next few hours. At this point I do not see a widespread outbreak of storms, but any storms that do make it down here will have the potential to produce heavy downpours, hail, strong and gusty winds, and frequent lightning. So be on the look-out for threatening weather approaching from the northwest or north. Once these storms push south or dissipate later tonight, we should be quiet in terms of storms during the overnight hours.

With the boundary hanging around over far southern New England Tuesday and a little moisture in the air, I can’t rule out a few pop up showers and storms on Tuesday. Most areas will see nothing, with just a mostly sunny to partly cloudy, very warm, and moderately humid day. High pressure will build over the area at all levels of the atmosphere Wednesday with a sunny, warm to hot day, but not too humid. By Thursday and Friday, surface high pressure will build just off the East Coast and upper level high pressure remaining over New England will produce hazy, hot, and humid weather. Thunderstorms should be limited or not occur at all, despite the surface heat, because of very warm air aloft, which limits storms. There is always a slight risk of a pop up air mass thunderstorm in that kind of heat, though, but I will leave them out of the forecast for now.

By the time we get to Friday night or Saturday, a cold front should move through the region, taking the edge of the heat. The timing of this front will determine how hot Saturday is. This front may also produce some thunderstorms Friday night or Saturday. By Sunday, heat and humidity will be noticeably lower.

Detailed Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms mainly between 8PM & 11PM from north to south. Not all areas will see them. Areas that do may experience downpours, small hail, strong & gusty winds, and frequent lightning. Areas of ground fog after 11PM dissipating about dawn. Mild and muggy. Low 65 to 70. Wind NW 5 to 15 mph, except variable and possibly strong and gusty around any storms.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Slight risk of isolated showers or thunderstorms, especially along and south of the Mass Pike. Very warm and moderately humid. High 84 to 89. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Mild but drier. Low 61 to 66. Wind NW up to 10 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Hot and dry. High 86 to 91. Wind NW 5 to 15 mph shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Hazy sunshine. Low 71. High 94.

FRIDAY: Hazy sunshine. Low 77. High 99.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms. Low 74. High 90.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 82.

** NOTE: This blog will be updated with the same discussion and forecast, excluding the information about tonight’s storms, once the threat of storms is over later tonight.

Headlines… Thunderstorms Monday, heat blast later this week.

Discussion… A very warm and muggy Monday may turn quite stormy as a cold front bumps into the muggy air, setting off thunderstorms especially this afternoon & evening. Thunderstorms may become severe in some areas, with the primary threat being from damaging straight-line winds. The front will pass through at night but sit near the New England South Coast Tuesday, and one more disturbance coming along may trigger a few showers. High pressure will build in with drier air for Wednesday but move offshore into the heat pump position for Thursday through Saturday. While this happens, high pressure will also build in the upper atmosphere later in this week, and the heat will really blast in. The ridge may weaken and a cold front may provide some relief by the end of next weekend.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Variably cloudy and hazy. Isolated showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the morning. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Thunderstorms may be strong to severe. Very warm and muggy. High 85 to 90. Wind SW 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely during the evening hours, diminishing to a few showers later at night. Any thunderstorms may be strong to severe. Warm and humid. Low 70 to 75. Wind SW to W 5 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Warm and humid. High 82 to 87. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 86.

THURSDAY: Hazy sunshine. Low 70. High 94.

FRIDAY: Hazy sunshine. Low 74. High 99.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. PM thunderstorms. Low 77. High 96.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 68. High 86.

9:44AM

If you are in the Boston area, summer weekends don’t get much better than this one. Saturday: Lots of sun, a few developing fair-weather clouds, not too humid, very warm but not overly hot, light sea breeze coast. Sunday: Lots of sun, turning more humid, a bit hotter, light land breeze. Admittedly, I’m sure some of you that are not fans of heat won’t like Sunday as much, but when you think of classic summer weather, you know a day like that is going to be part of it here at times. We can thank a high pressure area sitting over us for the great weather this weekend. However, as this high builds offshore and a cold front moves in from the west on Monday, the stage will be set for thunderstorms which can occur over about a 12 hour period. We’ll have to watch for some severe thunderstorms, but I don’t expect a widespread severe weather outbreak at this point. Once we get by the storm threat of Monday, more great summer weather is ready for the balance of next week!

Detailed Boston area forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Very warm and dry. High 85 to 90 except slightly cooler along the shore. Wind light variable with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Mild and more humid. Low 64 to 69. Wind light S.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Hotter and more humid. High 87 to 92. Wind W up to 10 mph.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy and hazy. Warm and muggy. Low 70 to 75. Wind SW up to 10 mph.

MONDAY: Partly sunny and hazy. Showers and thunderstorms any time in the afternoon. Thunderstorms may be strong to severe in some locations. Hot and muggy. High 85 to 90. Wind SW 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 82.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 85.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 66. High 88.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 68. High 90.

1:58AM

As expected, some showers did move southward across northeastern MA & the Metro Boston area Thursday evening. This activity is now gone and that will lead to a Friday that is mostly bright and sunny, with the exception of some fair-weather clouds popping up during the late morning into the afternoon especially from just inland of the coast to around Route 495. These clouds should dissipate from east to west during the course of the day, except perhaps in the western reaches of the 495 belt, as a sea breeze develops and stable air overtakes much of the region. The rest of the discussion is unchanged from the previous post.

Updated Boston area forecast…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Mild to warm and dry. High 80 to 85 except holding in the 70s at the shore. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Mild and dry. Low 62 to 67. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Warm and moderately humid. High 84 to 89. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Mild and moderately humid. Low 63 to 68. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Hot and increasingly humid. High 86 to 91. Wind SW 5 to 15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 71. High 89.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 69. High 88.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 66. High 87.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 66. High 86.

3:41PM

A cool evening is about all we have left of the break in the developing warm July pattern. This pattern is also trending drier with this trend likely to continue during the next week to 10 days. I still don’t see any prolonged major heat, but 80s to around 90 will be common. First, we have had a cooler day today, behind a departing low pressure system, and one little last spoke of energy moving around it may produce a few isolated showers through this evening, though most places will be dry. The only other rain threat I see right now is a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms accompanying a passing disturbance early next week.

The forecast for the Boston area…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy before midnight with a slight chance of isolated showers moving north to south across portions of Essex, Middlesex, Suffolk, and northern Plymouth counties. Mostly clear after midnight with patches valley, swamp, and bog fog possible. Cool and dry. Low ranging from the lower 50s inland valleys to near 60 along the coast. Wind NE diminishing to under 10 MPH near the coast and nearly calm inland.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny in the morning. Becoming partly cloudy during the afternoon. Warm and dry. High 80 to 85 except holding in the 70s at the shore. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Mild and dry. Low 62 to 67. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Warm and moderately humid. High 84 to 89. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Mild and moderately humid. Low 63 to 68. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Hot and increasingly humid. High 86 to 91. Wind SW 5 to 15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 71. High 89.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 69. High 88.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 66. High 87.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 66. High 86.

9:30PM

Nothing new to add to yesterday’s discussion at this time, so just an updated Boston area forecast this evening!

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers, some heavy. Damp and cooler. Low 59 to 64. Wind N 10 to 15 MPH, diminishing to under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mixed sun and clouds, though it may start out cloudy and damp especially from coastal Essex County through Boston and into Plymouth County with even a few lingering showers. Drying but cool. High from the lower 70s coast to upper 70s well inland. Wind N to NE 10 to 15 MPH, gusts around 20 MPH along the coast in the morning.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog over wetland locations. Low 55 to 60. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Dry and warmer. High 80 to 85. Wind W up to 10 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 87.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 67. High 89.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 68. High 90.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 71. High 86.

10:57PM

This pattern is a classic summer one. Ridge of high pressure centered from the eastern Plains to the Ohio Valley, slides a bit east at times, retrogrades a bit west other times. Center of heat stays pretty much where it has been. What does this pattern do to the Northeast? Pretty much what we have seen this week. Predominately dry and warm, brief episodes of heat when the ridge expands to the east, periodic cooling when the ridge slides back to the west and allows a trough in eastern Canada to send a spoke of energy and cooler air across the Upper Great Lakes and Northeast. And I’m not seeing any major changes in this pattern for the next 10 days. There have been some computer model runs that have shifted the ridge further east and brought more serious heat in here sometime in the next couple weeks, but this may be overdone. However, the possibility should not be completely discounted, as the heat will never really be that far away.

In the mean time, let’s look out about 1 week for the Boston area…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Areas of valley, swamp, and bog fog after 2AM, dissipating at dawn. Mild and moderately humid. Low from the middle 60s inland to lower 70s Boston. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms any time from late morning through early evening. Any thunderstorms may produce brief heavy downpours and small hail. Warm and moderately humid. High 82 to 87. Wind NW 5 to 15 MPH. Briefly strong and gusty winds are possible near any storms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated showers early, then clearing. Cooler and drier. Low 60 to 65. Wind N 10 to 15 MPH, diminishing to under 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Sunny in the morning. Partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 74 to 79 coast, 79 to 84 inland. Wind N 5 to 15 MPH shifting to E.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog over wetland locations. Low 55 to 60. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Dry and warmer. High 80 to 85. Wind S up to 10 mph.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 87.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 67. High 89.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 68. High 90.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 71. High 86.

2:46AM

We sit on the northeastern edge of a big heatwave, but it has expanded enough to get the Boston area into it, and this will last through today, before some drier air from Canada comes down and pushes the heat and humidity away again for a while. While it is true we have a cold front moving across the region into a hot/humid air mass today, much of the energy available to help create storms will be pushing offshore during the day with the air too warm and dry above to support widespread storm development. Isolated to scattered storms are most likely along and east of Route 95 for a period of time from late morning through late afternoon.

A secondary trough will pass through on Wednesday and may trigger an additional shower or storm. In fact, the threat of showers and storms is slightly greater Wednesday than it is today, due to better support above for storm development. Great summer weather is expected from Thursday through the weekend as high pressure takes over.

TODAY: More clouds than sun during the morning. More sun than clouds in the afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms mainly near and east of Route 95 mostly between 11AM & 4PM.  Hot and humid but a little drier toward evening. High 90 to 95. Wind SW 10 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Mild and drier. Low 65 to 70. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Warm and drier. High 81 to 86. Wind W 10 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Cooler and dry. Low 58 to 63. Wind NW 5 to 15 mph.

THURSDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. Warm and dry. High 79 to 84. Wind NW 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 85.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 66. High 86.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 87.

10:40PM

LET’S DISCUSS…What’s up this week?

High pressure will build off the East Coast early this week, sending hotter, humid conditions into New England, but a cold front will cut into this air mass by Tuesday, resulting in showers and thunderstorms, and setting us up for a cooler, drier, windy Wednesday. An additional trough may cause a few more showers on Wednesday.

High pressure from Canada will bring beautiful summer weather to the Northeast during the second half of the week. It will be dry & warm, though humidity may start to creep back up as we reach next weekend.

LET’S DETAIL…Boston Area Forecast

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Mild and more humid. Low 62 to 67. Wind SW 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. High 85 to 90. Wind SW 10 to 15 mph.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. Low 65 to 70. Wind SW 5 to 10 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms after 11AM. Hot and muggy. High 86 to 91. Wind SW 10 to 20 mph.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Warm and muggy. Low 65 to 70. Wind SW 10 to 15 mph shifting to W.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1PM. Cooler and less humid. High 77 to 82. Wind W 10 to 20 mph shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Cool and dry. Low 55 to 60. Wind NW up to 10 mph.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Warm and dry. High 80 to 85. Wind NW up to 10 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 85.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 68. High 87.

2:53PM

No major changes to previous discussion, just updating the forecast details.

Full look at the week ahead coming tonight!

Enjoy the rest of your Sunday!

REST OF TODAY: Sunny. High 80 to 85 inland. Wind W 5 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 61 to 66. Wind SW 5 to 10 mph.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated thunderstorms possible late in the day. High 86 to 91. Wind SW 10 to 15 mph.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. High 87.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 60. High 79.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 57. High 80.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 85.

9:50AM

High pressure building into the northeastern USA has already pushed Friday night’s rain offshore and is doing the same to the clouds now. One more finger of clouds trying to come down from the north should start to dry up as it runs into the drying air. Even if it didn’t, the Boston area will still enjoy a fair amount of sun today and about 100% of the possible sunshine on Sunday, though a few high clouds may slide across the sky as warm and more humid air to the southwest starts to ride up over the drier air that will be in place.

By Monday, as high pressure slides off the East Coast, this very warm, humid air will become established, and continue into Tuesday, but a cold front crossing the region during Tuesday and Tuesday night will set off showers and thunderstorms.

Looking ahead to the middle & end of next week, cooler/drier/windy weather is expected Wednesday, and a couple great summer days should finish out the work week, if you’re working, or just make for great vacation weather if you are on vacation.

Boston area details…

TODAY: Partly to mostly sunny. High 82 to 87. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT: Clear. Low 61 to 66. Wind N up to 10 mph.

SUNDAY: Sunny. High 74 to 79 coast, 80 to 85 inland. Wind N up to 10 mph becoming E.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 88.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. High 86.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 60. High 79.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 57. High 80.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 85.

8:12PM

Just a forecast update for the Boston area. See the previous post for a discussion. Full update Saturday morning!

TONIGHT: Cloudy with episodes of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Any storms may produce heavy downpours, especially along and south of the Mass Pike. Low 62 to 67. Wind E up to 10 mph becoming N.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with patchy fog to start, then dissipating fog, melting clouds & turning sunny by late morning. High 82 to 87. Wind light variable to start, then NW up to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 60 to 65. Wind light NW.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80 coast, 80 to 85 inland. Wind N up to 10 mph becoming E.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 88.

TUESDAY: Showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 82.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 84.

1:33AM

A wave of low pressure moving along a stationary front just south of New England will bring clouds and some showers and a few thunderstorms to southern New England today and tonight. This will all scoot offshore as high pressure builds in on Saturday, and after early clouds depart, the remainder of the weekend will be fantastic.

Looking ahead… Heat returns Monday. Showers/storms break the heat Tuesday. Cooler and drier air returns Wednesday. Hot weather may try to come back by the end of next week, but it will be a close call as there will be some additional cool air spinning around an upper level low in eastern Canada, and that can always send pieces of cooler air southward into New England when the high pressure ridge is centered over the middle of the country, as it likely will be.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the majority of the activity along and south of the Mass Pike. High 72 to 77. Wind variable to E 5 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 62 to 67. Wind E up to 10 mph becoming N.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with patchy fog to start, then dissipating fog, melting clouds & turning sunny by late morning. High 82 to 87. Wind light variable to start, then NW up to 15 mph.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 60 to 65. Wind light NW.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 75 to 80 coast, 80 to 85 inland. Wind N up to 10 mph becoming E.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 88.

TUESDAY: Showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 82.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 84.

11:16AM

The cold front that moved into the region Wednesday night, causing scattered thunderstorms, has hung itself up in far southern New England and will sit there until Saturday morning. This front may result in a few thunderstorms south of Boston today, scattered showers as a wave of low pressure moves along it across southern New England Friday afternoon and evening, and perhaps a shower early Saturday over far southeastern New England before high pressure finally pushes it out of here for the rest of the weekend.

Looking into next week, the large scale pattern over the USA is likely to feature a large ridge of high pressure in the middle of the country. This tries to push hot weather our way at times, but with the jet stream nearby, fronts pass by on a fairly regular basis, so here, we see air mass changes, variable temperatures, and mostly fair weather with episodes of showers and storms, mostly brief.

Details for the next several days for the Boston area…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy, warm, and moderately humid. Isolated thunderstorms south of the Mass Pike this afternoon. High 82 to 87. Wind variable to W 5 to 15 mph.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 61 to 66. Wind variable up to 10 mph.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the afternoon. High 72 to 77. Wind E 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 62 to 67. Wind E up to 10 mph becoming N.

SATURDAY: Clearing. High 78 to 83. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 85.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 88.

TUESDAY: Showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 82.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 84.

1:44AM

See previous post for discussion…

Updated Boston area forecast…

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny and hazy. Hot and more humid. High 86 to 91. Wind SW 5 to 15 mph.

WEDNESDAY  NIGHT: Variably cloudy and hazy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Warm and muggy. Low 67 to 72. Wind light SW but gusty near any storms.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny and hazy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid. High 82 to 87. Wind variable 5 to 15 mph.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 81.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 84.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 84.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 88.