4:07PM

This post is just a quick updated forecast for the Boston area, and also to provide fresh space for anybody to discuss the weather, especially Irene, as well as today’s earthquakes (Virginia & Colorado). A full discussion with my latest thoughts on Irene will be posted this evening. For now, my quick summary of it is that the storm will be brushing the Carolinas before heading for New England. Where does it enter New England? Remains to be seen, but I’m very close to agreeing with one of my colleagues who has been calling for Ocracoke NC & Falmouth MA for a few days now. Time frame for Irene’s impact on the Boston Area is Sunday-early Monday. Saturday is no longer in the time frame.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 55-60. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 80-85. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 60-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. PM showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 86.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 82.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 64. High 84.

SUNDAY: Clouding up. PM showers. Rain/wind at night. Low 66. High 76.

MONDAY: Early rain, then clearing. Windy. Low 66. High 79.

3:12PM

Before I get to an updated forecast for eastern MA and nearby neighbors, I would like to thank the many of you that have voted for this blog on WBZ TV’s contest. Please continue to vote! I am overwhelmed by the support I’ve received!

What did happen?

Last night, many of you may have heard heavy rain falling around 2:30-3:30AM in Metro Boston. I had forecast thunderstorms to possibly enter the region around that time and bring heavy rain.  But the truth is, the heavy rain was not from the line I was expecting, but an area of heavy rain that developed and moved in from the south southwest. During this time, the line to the west weakened and slowed down. So this was a case of being right (the rain) for the wrong reason (not from what I expected).

What is happening?

Oh, what a great day today! After clouds to start, sunshine has taken over, and is shining brightly other than when a fair weather cloud passes in front of it. The humidity has dropped but along with that we have a gusty westerly breeze to deal with, maybe a little strong for playing a game of cards outside, but refreshing either way. Despite the beautiful day ongoing, we do have one more disturbance that has to pass by from the northwest later this afternoon and evening, so you may notice some increase in clouds and there is also the slightest risk of a passing shower in a few locations.

What is coming up the next few days?

Once this disturbance exits tonight, the dry air will be reinforced through Tuesday, which will be a bright but with a cool morning and pleasantly mild afternoon, with very low humidity. It will not be as breezy as today as the center of high pressure will be much closer. High clouds will move in later in the day and especially at night, when they may thicken for a while (showers may cross the northern mountains but it should remain dry in southern New England). This will be a warm front passing through the region. This front will be beyond us by Wednesday, which will turn out to be a mostly sunny and warmer day, with a slight but not-too-noticeable increase in humidity. That will occur later at night and especially Thursday ahead of a cold front, which will set off some showers and thunderstorms at some point Thursday or Thursday night. This front is expected to head offshore by Friday when high pressure moves in, bringing fair weather.

The weekend? Irene?

There is too much uncertainty regarding the path and strength of Hurricane Irene to determine just what it will do to this area and when that will occur. So instead of getting sucked into the hype vortex that you can find just about anywhere you look, I’ll just keep it real simple and say this. I am pretty certain we will hear from Irene at some point between Saturday and Monday. I do not know how strong it will be when it gets here and how much rain and/or wind we will see. We need to keep a very close eye on this storm, either way, because there is the potential for a significant impact from it.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

REMAINDER OF DAYLIGHT: Becoming partly cloudy. A very slight chance of a shower early in the evening though most areas will remain dry. Temperature cooling through the 70s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early, then clear. Low 52-57. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

TUESDAY: Sunshine, may becoming filtered by increasing high clouds by late afternoon. High 75-80. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 55-60. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. High 80-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 86.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 66. High 83.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 83.

SUNDAY: Clouding up. Chance of rain/wind. Low 66. High 76.

MONDAY: Chance of rain or showers then clearing. Low 66. High 79.

NOTE: The SATURDAY-MONDAY period is with low confidence in details and will depend on the track of Irene.

11:13PM

The “South Wind Storm Killer” has been at work tonight, keeping organized storms from reaching the coastal plain in eastern MA, RI, and the Seacoast region of NH. Often, a straight southerly wind will keep the atmosphere too stable to support strong storms, and only isolated heavy downpours pop up in the tropical air that is over us. A subtle shift in conditions over the next few hours may allow a line of storms currently entering east central NY State (as of 10:30PM) to make it most of if not all of the way across MA by 3:00AM.  Winds should shift to the southwest ahead of this line, and the sooner that happens the better the chance is that these storms survive the trip. If the winds remain more southerly, then this line will also weaken as it moves into the stabilized air in place. So don’t be totally surprised if you hear at least heavy rain falling and possibly some booming thunder sometime between 2:00AM & 4:00AM, earliest to the west, lastly in areas southeast of Boston. All of this activity should be pushing eastward offshore by dawn.

Looking ahead into the new week, we still have a little bit of an upper level trough to cross the region on Monday, and perhaps also one weak wave of low pressure rippling along the front that will have just passed by, so we cannot completely rule out a shower or thunderstorm through Monday evening, though widespread activity is not expected.

High pressure will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday with 2 splendid late summer days being the result.

By Thursday, we’ll be back into return flow on the back side of high pressure, and will see an increase in temperature and humidity, and also the chance of showers and thunderstorms, most likely later in the day or at night, as a cold front moves into the region. This front should push offshore Friday with a return to fair weather, which should last through Saturday as well. Things become tricky by Sunday as that could be when we’d be hearing from Irene, currently a tropical storm and expected to become a hurricane. I could outline multiple scenarios, based on computer model forecasts, but at this point I will just say that the storm will likely impact somewhere along the Southeast US Coast as a hurricane late in the week, and it should arrive in the Northeast via south to north steering currents by late in the weekend. What form Irene will be in when it gets here? It is simply too early to tell, and this will be something to follow during the week.

A peek a little further ahead into the last few days of August: Looks great behind Irene for the last couple days of the month, and there are even some early signs of a bout of late summer heat as we head toward the Labor Day Weekend. More in the days to come…

For now, the latest Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy, mild, and muggy. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through 2AM, then a chance of a broken to solid line of showers and storms moving west to east across the region between 2AM & 4AM. A follow up shower or storm may visit areas especially along and east of Route 95 toward dawn. Low 64-69. Wind S 10-15 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to SW, then W toward dawn.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny with a lingering shower possible in the morning. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy in the afternoon then variably cloudy late in the day with a risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm. High 80-85. Starting humid then slowly drying. Wind W 10-15 MPH with gusts around 20 MPH, shifting to NW.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Cooler and drier. Low 60-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny and comfortable. High 75-80. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 81.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. PM thunderstorms. Low 66. High 88.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 64. High 82.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 84.

SUNDAY: Clouding over. Rain/wind arriving (Irene)? Low 66. High 77.

10:38AM

This is the last update based on the last full discussion. The next blog post will feature an outlook for the week ahead including an extended look at the longer term trends as we head for the finish line of August.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. More organized lines of showers and storms should approach from the west by evening. Any storms after 3PM may be strong to locally severe. High 82-87. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and thunderstorms, some possibly severe, with the strongest activity most likely before 2AM. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH. However, strong and gusty winds are possible near any thunderstorms.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Lingering showers and thunderstorms possible early morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon through early evening. High 80-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH shifting to NW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 80.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 84.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms late. Low 66. High 88.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 81.

*** NOTE *** Additional posts may appear regarding the severe weather threat, otherwise look for observations and updates in the comments section of this blog post below. Also feel free to post a comment with any questions or observations you have, not just today, but any time!

9:16AM

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 83-88. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 63-68. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High 83-88. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely, probably coming in 2 or 3 waves of activity. Storms may be strong to severe. Low 63-68. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts, except possible strong winds associated with some thunderstorms.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers in the morning. High 80-85. Wind W to NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 80.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 82.

THURSDAY: PM thunderstorms. Low 66. High 88.

FRIDAY: AM showers. Low 66. High 82.

2:50PM

As of 2:45PM a cluster of showers and thunderstorms has formed south and southwest of Boston, and is moving north northeast. This area will cross the Boston Area during the 3:00PM hour and into the Merrimack Valley and southern NH a bit later. Heavy downpours, isolated strong wind gusts, hail, and frequent lightning may occur with any of these storms.

Forecast Update…

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some locally heavy. High 83-88. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with gusts to 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms early, especially north and west of Boston, then partly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Humid. Low 64-69. Wind light SW.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms again mainly north and west of Boston during the afternoon. High 81-86. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 65-70. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mostly late. High 80-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mostly early. Low 68. High 82.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 80.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 81.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 66. High 83.

3:52PM

There is nothing unusual about the weather pattern we are in, nor will there be, in the next week or so. It’s August, there will be weak fronts trying to move through but having trouble. It will be warm and often humid. There will be spotty showers and thunderstorms from time to time. A little drying may take place for part of next week if we can get a northern jet stream trough deep enough and progressive enough to pull some cooler/drier air out of Canada.

As I hinted at on some recent posts, I thought that some of the medium range models were overdoing the cool/wet pattern, making the troughs in the jet stream too strong for too long, and that starting around mid month we’d see a western Atlantic ridge of high pressure a little stronger than the models were forecasting at that time. This is and will continue to be the case. We’re not talking about a giant ridge of high pressure and super hot/muggy weather for the East, but a ridge strong enough to prevent major pushes of cool/dry air from Canada, as fronts have trouble pushing through cleanly, and tend to weaken and fall apart nearby. This will mean that there will be some episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms, which is typical of August.

The other concern with a pattern like this is the tropics. They have been tending to get more active lately, and recent medium range computer guidance has been showing a tropical system that may make an approach to the eastern USA by later next week. Now, realistically it is far too soon to really be concerned about any one particular place, but the consistency of a tropical showing up on many different computer models just tells us we should be on the alert in the days ahead. Once a system is formed and starts to move along, we can start the process of prognosticating where it will eventually end up…

In the mean time, the next few updates of this blog will focus on the weather for the Boston Area, eastern MA, nearby southern NH, and northern RI. Have a great day and a great week everybody!

Forecast Update…

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon, with the greatest chance being the further west and north of Boston you go. Humid. High 80-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with gusts to 20 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms early, especially north and west of Boston, then partly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Humid. Low 64-69. Wind light SW.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms again mainly north and west of Boston during the afternoon. High 81-86. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 65-70. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. High 80-85. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. High 82.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 80.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 81.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 66. High 83.

2:09AM

After some wet and rather cool August weather, the low pressure system responsible for the unsettled weather has departed. This will lead to a sunny and warmer Wednesday, the pick of the week, a top 10 day, as high pressure builds overhead. This sunny interlude won’t last, however, as the next system will be approaching from the west, bringing clouds in during Thursday, and a shower/thunderstorm threat for Friday. This front washes out near us over the weekend and high pressure starts to build off the East Coast. This means that even though an isolated shower or storm is possible at some point during the weekend, generally rain-free, warm, and more humid weather is expected.

Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Sunny. High 80-85. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Low 60-65. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. High 78-83. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 79.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms. Low 64. High 84.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 64. High 83.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 81.

4:20PM

After some wet and rather cool August weather, the low pressure system responsible for the unsettled weather is moving away, as will be evident by the clearing sky tonight. This will lead to a sunny and warmer Wednesday, the pick of the week, as high pressure builds overhead. This sunny interlude won’t last, however, as the next system will be approaching from the west, bringing clouds in during Thursday, and a shower/thunderstorm threat for Friday. This front washes out near us over the weekend and high pressure starts to build off the East Coast. This means that even though an isolated shower or storm is possible at some point during the weekend, generally rain-free, warm, and more humid weather is expected.

Boston Area Forecast…

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. High 80-85. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 60-65. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. High 78-83. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 79.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorms. Low 64. High 84.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 64. High 83.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 81.

4:28PM

For a full discussion, see the previous post!

Boston Area Forecast…

THROUGH TONIGHT: Overcast with periods of rain, some heavy. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Patchy fog. Temperature cooling through the 60s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Showers likely, but slowly decreasing in coverage through the day. High 70-75. Wind N around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Areas of fog over inland valley locations. Low 60-65 except 50s inland valleys. Wind light N becoming calm.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. High 80-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 80.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 64. High 76.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers. Low 64. High 80.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 82.

5:29PM

* Stormy Start

Looks like the unsettled pattern we have gotten ourselves into this month so far will continue early this week as a trough of low pressure and plenty of moisture combine to make a very wet start to the week Monday, lingering into Tuesday as the upper low is slow to depart.

* Nicer Midweek

High pressure should provide fair weather with lower humidity for Wednesday and Thursday.

* Unsettled Interlude

Another frontal system is expected to chug across the region with a threat of showers Friday into Saturday.

* Bright Finish?

As long as things don’t bog down in the atmosphere, we should see improving conditions next weekend from later Saturday through Sunday.

* Tropics

More active, but no immediate threats to the East Coast including New England. This may change as we get deeper into August. See below…

* Heat

No major heat in sight through this week. Even though it is getting later into summer now, you know we can still see hot days, and those are still possible as there still are signs of a Bermuda High regime possibly setting up later this month. That would also increase the chance of tropical cyclones threatening the US East Coast.

* “So, just give me the forecast.” Ok, here it is, for the Boston area, for the coming week.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, heaviest and most widespread after midnight. Slight risk of embedded thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Mild & muggy. Low 62-67. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Overcast. Rain much of the time, with periods of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms possible. Areas of fog. Cool but humid. High 67-72. Wind E 10-15 MPH inland with gusts up to 20 MPH, 15-20 MPH coast with gusts up to 25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain and drizzle along with areas of fog. Mild and humid. Low 62-67. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle and fog near the coast during the morning. Isolated to scattered showers. Mild and humid. High 72-77. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 62. High 80.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM showers. Low 64. High 76.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. AM showers. Low 64. High 80.

SUNDAY:  Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 82.

2:56AM

TODAY: Partly cloudy. High 75-80 coast, 80-85 inland. Wind S 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Low 60-65. Wind SSE 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers becoming more likely especially west of Boston during the afternoon and early evening. High 75-80. Wind SSE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Showers likely, heaviest AM, lighter PM. Low 66. High 72.

TUESDAY: Chance of showers. Low 64. High 76.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy.  Low 63. High 80.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 81.

4:00PM

High pressure has taken over the weather and brought in a fresh dry air mass from Canada. The dew point dropped below 50 at Boston today, something you don’t see much of in August. High pressure will continue to be in control for the coming 2 days as well, with crisp, dry air again on Friday after a rather cool night tonight! By Saturday, you’ll notice it feeling warmer and maybe not quite as dry, though it will still be comfortable. This will take place as the high pressure area begins to move offshore and allows a touch more humidity to creep in from the southwest. But before we would have a chance to build heat along with the humidity, a trough and low pressure system moving in from the west will bring another period of wet weather, possibly with significant rainfall amounts, by later Sunday into the start of next week. Things should move along so that we get back into fair weather by the middle of next week.

Detailed Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low ranging from the lower 50s inland valleys to near 60 in Boston and along the coast. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. High 77-82. Wind NW around 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 55-60. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunshine, becoming filtered by some high cloudiness during the afternoon. High 80-85. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 65-70. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Showers becoming more likely as the day goes on, and may be heavy by late in the day or at night. High 73-78. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 65. High 75.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 81.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 64. High 79.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 81.

Boston Area…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny. High 75-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 56-61. Wind light W.

FRIDAY: Sunny. High 77-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 60. High 83.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. PM rain. Low 61. High 76.

Full blog update by 4PM!

8:34PM

TONIGHT: Cloudy with showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, some with locally heavy rain. Areas of fog. Thunderstorms are most likely after 9PM. Fog is most likely after midnight. Low 63-68. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering showers into mid morning, then partly sunny. Areas of fog early. High 81-86. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W during the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy with a passing shower or thunderstorm early, then partly cloudy. Low 62-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 75-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 59. High 79.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 83.

SUNDAY: Showers. Low 62. High 75.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 62. High 72.