11:51PM

An active pattern will continue with plenty of changes during the week ahead. Despite the action, we will see a fair amount of good weather!

Here’s the breakdown:

Monday… Low pressure that gave us the windy weekend is still spinning over eastern Canada and will produce a gusty breeze but fairly mild temperatures. Showers that move through in the overnight hours will be gone by dawn and so will most of the clouds, with only a few clouds during the day.

Tuesday…A complex area of low pressure developing to the west and south of New England will start to send clouds into the region. Earlier, I thought there could be some rain breaking out well in advance of this system, but current indications are that it will remain dry during the day.

Wednesday…A storm system riding up the East Coast will pull plenty of tropical moisture into it and produce a healthy amount of rain. Minor flooding is possible.

Thursday…The storm will be on its way out, but will continue to influence the region with gusty winds, a sun/cloud mix, and a risk of a shower. Cooler air will still be back to the west and northwest so this day will be mild.

Friday…Low pressure continues to move away, high pressure moves in, and a gusty breeze blows between the 2 systems, pulling chilly air into New England.

Weekend…High pressure should be in control with beautiful Autumn weather.

Detailed Boston Area Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy.  Showers moving through west to east then ending by dawn. Low 51-56. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. High 64-69. Wind W 15-30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 45-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. High 61-66. Wind W up to 10 MPH becoming variable.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy.  Rain likely. Low 50. High 62.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 52. High 66.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 58.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 59.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 62.

7:36PM

A broad area of low pressure passing north of New England spreads its large circulation across the area, resulting in windy weather this weekend and even Monday. Though we are not seeing the unseasonably warm temperatures of last weekend, it is still on the mild side for this time of year. A disturbance passing through the region today created a few passing showers, though a few of them were briefly heavy. Even some rainbows were spotted as later-afternoon showers were departing and the sun broke through the clouds as it lowered in the western sky. Another disturbance will head across southern New England late Sunday night the main threat of showers being in the overnight hours.

Looking ahead, a complex frontal system and a couple of low pressure areas are expected to bring unsettled weather to the region Tuesday and Wednesday, before moving away later in the week when a drier, chilly shot of air is expected.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 47-52. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 62-67. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers from midnight to dawn. Low 50-55. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 49. High 64.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 51. High 61.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 47. High 63.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 36. High 56.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 58.

10:56AM

TODAY: Sunny start then clouds developing during the day, and more moving in from the west later in the day with a slight chance of an isolated showers especially west of Boston. High 62-67. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Low 43-48. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers early. Low 46. High 64.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy.  Chance of showers late. Low 51. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 50. High 62.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers early. Low 48. High 60.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 59.

5:24PM

Updated forecast for the Boston area…

THROUGH SUNSET: Areas of showers, some heavy, and a slight chance of thunderstorms, but also breaking clouds from the SSW before sunset with a glimpse of sun not impossible. Temperature in the 60s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms before 11PM. Low 50-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W and increasing to 15-20 MPH late.

SATURDAY: Sunny start then clouds developing during the day, and more moving in from the west later in the day with a slight chance of an isolated showers especially west of Boston. High 62-67. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 43-48. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 60-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers early. Low 46. High 64.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy.  Chance of showers late. Low 51. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 50. High 62.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers early. Low 48. High 60.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 59.

2:55AM

Updated forecast for the Boston area…

TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog in the morning. Episodes of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, especially during the afternoon, with some heavy downpours possible. Greatest chance for heavy downpours will take place between 3PM & 6PM but also cannot rule out breaks in the clouds and even a hint of sun in the western sky before it sets… High 65-70. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers early. Low 50-55. Wind S 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High 62-67. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 43-48. Wind W 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. High 62-67. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 46. High 64.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy.  Low 51. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of rain. Low 50. High 62.

THURSDAY: Chance of showers. Low 48. High 60.

1:06AM

This late night and early morning has produced an amazing spectacle: A 22 degree lunar halo that was text book perfect with the Full Hunters Moon shining through a deck of cirrostratus clouds. Just inside the left edge of the halo sat the planet Jupiter at midnight. I’ll never forget the view as I stood outside looking up at this.

Now, we are about to pay a bit of a toll for all the great weather we have just gone through: Three unsettled days. It could be worse. No severe weather is expected, and flooding should be pretty much a non-threat except in a few areas that see some heavier rain over nearly saturated ground. I still do not expect this to be a widespread issue.

The unsettled stretch of weather will take place as a low pressure system from the south feeding on tropical moisture moves through the region, and a low pressure system from the west catches up with it all.

The better news is that this unsettled weather is expected to move away by the weekend, leaving us with sun and clouds, gusty winds, but mainly dry weather and seasonable to mild temperatures.

Forecast details for the Boston Area…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of drizzle near the coast during the afternoon and a slight chance of light rain mainly south and west of  Boston during the late afternoon hours. High 60-65. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Low 50-55. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain through early afternoon tapering off to showers later. High 65-70. Wind E 5-15 MPH shifting to SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Low 55-60. Wind SE 10-15 MPH shifting to S.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. High 65-70. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 64.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 51. High 67.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 65.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 69.

4:50PM

I hope everybody in the New England area had a chance to enjoy the fantastic summer-like Columbus Day Weekend! I know I did. Boston smashed their record high of 82 on Sunday, setting a new high mark of 87. As of the writing of this blog, they are very warm once again today, at 85. But the big warmth is about to come to an end, replaced by cooler but still fairly mild air, as the overall above-normal temperature regime continues. I’m not expecting to see a return to summertime temperatures again, but they will continue to run warmer than normal overall for this week.

A back-door cold front will send cooler air into the region tonight and Tuesday, holding in place Wednesday. High pressure will initially remain in control with dry weather, but low pressure moving northward will first send clouds into the region on Wednesday followed by wet weather Wednesday night and Thursday. Showers may linger into Friday as a secondary system has to pass through. This should open the door to a fair, mild weekend.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 48-53. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to NE.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 65-70. Wind NE up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 44-49. Wind E up to 10 MPH shifting to N.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. High 65-70. Wind N up to 10 MPH shifting to SE.

THURSDAY: Rain likely. Low 53. High 66.

FRIDAY: Chance of showers. Low 55. High 69.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 65.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 68.

3:00AM

Another quick update to the forecast for the Boston area…

TODAY: Sunny. High 82-87. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Low 55-60. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny. High 75-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 50. High 65.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 50. High 63.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50. High 64.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 61.

2:35PM

Just an update! No changes!

REMAINDER OF TODAY: Sunny. High 77-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Low 50-55. Wind WSW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. High 80-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 55-60. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny. High 75-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 50. High 65.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 50. High 60.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 50. High 64.

4:47PM

Updating the Boston Area Forecast for the long weekend and much of next week…

A couple more updates will be posted during the course of the weekend and the usual Week Ahead segment will post on Monday instead of Sunday.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 40-45 except 35-40 some inland valley locations. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. High 75-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 50-55. Wind WSW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. High 80-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 55-60. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny. High 75-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Low 50. High 65.

THURSDAY: Rain. Low 50. High 60.

FRIDAY: Showers. Low 50. High 64.

5:04PM

It’s a matter of opinion, but if you make a list of great weather weekends, the one upcoming will end up near or at the top.

High pressure will be in control of the weather for the next several days. We’re on the cool side of this high now and will remain there through Friday, before we get to the warm side for the remainder of the dry weather stretch, which is expected to last through Tuesday. Record high temperatures are possible on Sunday (Boston’s record is 82 for October 9). Very slight cooling may take place toward the end of the dry stretch as winds shift more northerly, but it will still be running much warmer than normal.

Things may get unsettled around the middle of next week, but it’s a long way off and not easily nailed down this far out.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Widespread frost forming. Patchy shallow fog over valleys, swamps, and bogs. Low 32-37 except 37-42 immediate shoreline and in urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH early then diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny – areas of high clouds. High 60-65. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 40-45 except 35-40 some inland valley locations. Wind W under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. High 75-80. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 50-55. Wind WSW 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny. High 80-85. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Clear. Low 55-60. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Sunny. High 75-80. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Low 50. High 65.

THURSDAY: Rain. Low 50. High 60.

4:45PM

The discussion below is an update of the previous one.

High pressure will build eastward through the Columbus Day Weekend providing many days of dry weather. The biggest thing to change will be the temperature during this period of time, starting out breezy and chilly Thursday, cool into Friday, then a weekend warm-up! In fact, we may go from having widespread frost Friday morning to record warmth by Sunday! That’s New England.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy frost inland valley areas. Low 38-43 except 32-37 inland valleys. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, lightest in the valley areas, strongest higher elevations.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny – some fast-moving fair-weather clouds will pop up late morning through early afternoon. High 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Widespread frost. Low 32-37 except 38-43 coast and urban areas. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. High 62-67. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 46. High 75.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 54. High 82.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 74.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 68.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 63.

1:17AM

Expect a windy and mostly dry day today behind departing low pressure to the east and approaching high pressure from the west. Enough upper level energy and cool air may still allow a few showers to form in the afternoon, but they will be isolated.

High pressure will build eastward through the Columbus Day Weekend providing many days of dry weather. The biggest thing to change will be the temperature during this period of time, starting out breezy and chilly Thursday, cool into Friday, then a weekend warm-up! In fact, we may go from having widespread frost Friday morning to record warmth by Sunday! That’s New England.

Updated Boston Area Forecast…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers especially from mid through late afternoon. High 60-65. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with gusts as high as 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy frost inland valley areas. Low 38-43 except 32-37 inland valleys. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, lightest in the valley areas, strongest higher elevations.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Widespread frost. Low 32-37 except 38-43 coast and urban areas. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. High 62-67. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 46. High 75.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 54. High 80.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 73.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 64.

4:26PM

Slow-moving low pressure sent yet more bands of showers into the region last night and today, and as most of you know, a heavy rain band with thunderstorms set up just north of Boston and caused flooding in parts of northeastern MA, especially around Peabody and Swampscott, and parts of Salem, Beverly, and Marblehead, where 3 to 6 inches of rain fell, much of it in a 2 to 3 hour period.

This low is finally accelerating eastward, south of New England, and is pulling the remains of the heavy rain band through eastern MA as of mid afternoon. We’ll see the shower activity taper off from north to south as we move into the evening hours. Plenty of clouds may linger and there could be a couple leftover showers as well into the nighttime hours.

High pressure will build eastward in the coming days, but with low pressure still not that far offshore, we’ll see clouds linger into a portion of Wednesday along with gusty winds. Much cooler air will also dive into the region Wednesday and linger into Friday. Later Friday, you’ll notice it starting to feel milder, and this will set us up for a fantastic Columbus Day Weekend with lots of sunshine and above normal temperatures. In fact, a few record high temperatures may be challenged on Sunday (Boston’s record for October 9 is 82).

Detailed forecast for Boston Area…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with lingering showers. Low 48-53. Wind N-NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy start then clearing leading to a mostly sunny finish. High 60-65. Wind N increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Patchy frost in valley areas. Low 38-43 except slightly colder in valleys. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Clear. Widespread frost. Low 32-37 except 38-43 coast and urban areas. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. High 62-67. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 46. High 75.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 54. High 80.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 56. High 73.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 49. High 64.

10:25PM

As I like to do when the weekend upcoming is a holiday weekend, as it is for us in New England, I’ll attempt an 8-day forecast all the way through Columbus Day Weekend.

Some of you may not realize that a Category 4 Hurricane (Ophelia) was racing northward in the western Atlantic this weekend, now weakening and accelerating and will pass near the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland, Canada, early Monday as it turns northeastward. Some large ocean swells have been sent toward the US East Coast as this storm was churning up the waters offshore, and some of these will be arriving along the New England Coast Monday with some splash-over likely in prone areas during the pre-dawn and late afternoon high tides.

As for our weather, it will continue to be governed by low pressure spinning around in the Northeast through Tuesday. This low finally gets out of here by Wednesday, leaving us with a shot of cool and dry air along with a gusty breeze.

The end of the week will feature high pressure building eastward out of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast. This should provide fantastic October weather starting Thursday and lasting through most of the weekend (through Sunday at least). Can it last through Monday, Columbus Day? Obviously being 8 days away confidence is not that high, but going with hints on guidance and the kind of pattern we’ll be in, I’ll make the early guess that we may be dealing with a back-door cold front which may introduce clouds. Can’t say much more than that now.

So here is the detailed forecast for the Boston Area!

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Isolated showers. Low 51-56. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Isolated showers. High 63-68. Wind light variable becoming E up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of rain. Low 52-57. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of rain and drizzle in the morning. Periods of drizzle with isolated showers in the afternoon. High 61-66. Wind NE 10-15 MPH shifting to N.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with patchy fog and drizzle early then breaking clouds. Low 45-50. Wind N 10-20 MPH shifting to NW.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 55-60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 37. High 63.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 44. High 66.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 49. High 69.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 51. High 72.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Variably cloudy. Low 51. High 64.