2:37PM

Warmer today than even I thought it would be! And a fantastic day to take down the outside decorations, that is between periods of the Bruins game. Good thing I started this morning.

So not much of a weather discussion on this update, just a quick forecast update based on my latest look at things. Another update should followed by tomorrow morning and then the full discussion of the week ahead tomorrow evening. Still watching the storm for midweek and it still looks like a rain producer. Not quite ready to dive into any  kind of “real” winter pattern just yet. Still waiting…

Boston Area Forecast…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON… Sun gives way to clouds west to east. Temperature around 60 (!) but coasting back through the 50s. Light wind.

TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Low 30-35. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunny to partly cloudy. High 40-45. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 25-30. Wind light NW.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 28. High 44.

THURSDAY: AM rain. PM showers. Low 35. High 45.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 41.

3:39PM

The brief shot of very cold air just passed may be a taste of things to come, but they won’t be coming too quickly. Looking over the maps today it’s pretty easy and safe to say that a quiet pattern will continue for the next 5 or 6 days, along with no major cold. In fact, the early part of the weekend may be quite mild once again. The next storm threat is near or just after midweek next week, and at  this early stage, odds favor rain over snow for the Boston Area. In the immediate future, clouds will dominate through Friday as warm air comes back into the region, first above us, then eventually down to the surface by Saturday. The only threat of precipitation is a slight risk of non-accumulating very light snow on Friday morning as some of the warmer air is riding over colder air at the surface. By late Friday, it will already be feeling milder, setting us up for a run at 50 degrees Saturday. Sunday will cool down slightly, and the early part of next week looks dry and cool, but not too cold.

Details…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 20-25. Wind W under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Slight chance of very light snow in the morning. No snow accumulation. High 38-43. Wind variable under 10 MPH becoming SW around 10 MPH by late day.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 33-38. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. High 46-51. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Low 30-35. Wind W 10-15 MPH shifting to N.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. High 36-41. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 39.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 39.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 24. High 44.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. PM rain. Low 30. High 42.

4:31PM

Going to back off a bit on the storm threat for Sunday, as it looks like things don’t combine in the right way to send a storm south of us with marginally cold enough air for mix to snow. Odds are against it at this point, so just expect moderating temperatures, slightly at first for the next couple of days, then more meaningful moderation on Saturday as a low pressure area tracks north of the region. I’m still expecting a frontal passage leading to chillier air on Sunday, but just lots of clouds and no precipitation. It looks quiet and not too cold into the start of next week.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy through midnight. Partly cloudy overnight. Low 16-21. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. High 35-40. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting to 25 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy early. Becoming mostly cloudy late. Low 21-26. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. High 40-45. Wind WSW 10-20 mph.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 30-35. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. High 45-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 29. High 38.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 36.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 43.

3:26PM

The headline is for the immediate weather: COLD. Not record cold. But cold nevertheless, especially compared to what we have seen. Even this cold shot will not last too long, as milder weather lies ahead yet again as we hit the end of the week. Beyond Saturday, my forecast confidence drops off quickly due to great spread among the various guidance, so for today I’m using a blend of my favorite model (ECMWF for those that care) and a little gut feeling, and a vague forecast will be the result, so please check back if you want my thoughts as I figure out what will happen.

In the more immediate future, our cold snap will last through tomorrow before a weak system passing north of the region moderates the temperatures for Thursday. A slight chill-down on Friday will be followed by another warm-up on Saturday, and then a chill-down once again later in the weekend, though not to the level we are at now. A low pressure area is expected to slide south and east of New England on Sunday. With colder air in place, or at least close by, it’s a little too early to say what type of precipitation will would see from this system, assuming it comes close enough to give us any.

Boston Area Forecast…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 5-10. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH. Wind chill near to below zero at times.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 23-28. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 15-20. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. High 33-38. Wind WSW 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 22. High 33.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 44.

SUNDAY:  Cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Low 30. High 38.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 35.

1:10AM

Though some midwinter cold is on the way, there are still no signs of significant snow.  This week will start out with a windy weather change, a plunge in temperature from the mild weekend readings to midwinter cold by Monday night through Wednesday night, followed by a moderating trend later in the week. Some moderate to locally heavy rain showers have been moving through the Boston area with the initial cold front during Sunday night, but all of this activity will be offshore to the east by morning. A couple more trough lines and a secondary cold front will come by during the day Monday and into the evening, bringing a slight chance of snow showers as the cold air comes in. After a cold snap Tuesday & Wednesday, expect a moderating trend for later in the week. It may turn a little unsettled at some point toward the weekend, but indications are that no major storminess will occur.

Detailed Forecast…

OVERNIGHT: Rain showers ending from west to east. Low 35-40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Slight chance of snow showers, especially over the hills north and west of Boston. High 40-45 in the morning then cooling to the 30s. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Low 15-20. Wind W 15-25 MPH shifting to NW. Wind chill below 10 at times.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 22-27. Wind NW 15-25 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Low 5-10. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. High 21-26. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of light snow showers early, then partly sunny. Low 16. High 35.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny then mostly cloudy with a chance of light mix to rain showers late. Low 24. High 42.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 46.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 44.

12:26PM

This is just a quick forecast update for the remainder of the New Year’s Weekend, which runs through Monday for some people, and for the work week following, or the final few days of Christmas for others (through January 6). A discussion of the week ahead and updated forecast will be posted this evening. Happy New Year all!

TODAY: Mostly sunny. High 46-51. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated rain showers before midnight. Numerous rain showers after midnight. Low 33-38. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Intervals of sun and clouds. Chance of rain showers during the morning hours. Slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. High 40-45 in the morning then cooling into the 30s. Wind W 15-25 MPH gusting around 30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered snow showers. Low 15-20. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill near to below 10 at times.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. High 24-29. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 22.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 15. High 33.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 22. High 44.