9:26PM

For eastern MA, southern NH, and RI

HEADLINES… Showers fizzle, heat will sizzle. First half of week is hot, second half is not.

DISCUSSION… A disturbance is crossing New England tonight, but does not have too much support with it, and this has resulted in most showers and what few thunderstorms have occurred remaining on the weak side, with some of the activity fizzling out as it moves across the region. One more impulse of energy coming along from the west later at night may ignite a few more showers and storms after midnight, but these should not be too widespread. High pressure ridging will build over the region Monday and Tuesday with the heat coming on in. Tuesday will be especially hot, with some record highs possible. The next thunderstorm threat comes with the arrival of a cold front on Wednesday.  The timing of this front will determine the coverage and severity of thunderstorms. Early indications are that the front will be early enough so that the atmosphere does not reach its full potential destabilization in southern NH and much of northern and central MA, while areas further to the south in MA and RI may see a greater risk of stronger thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Something to watch…

By the 2nd half of the week, a more refreshing and seasonably warm air mass from Canada will dominate, and it looks fabulous around here.

FORECAST…

TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Scattered showers and a few  isolated thunderstorms. Warm and humid. Lows around 70. Wind SW under 10 MPH, gusty near any storms.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Hot and humid. Highs from the middle 80s to lower 90s, hottest inland, with some cooling along coastal areas during the afternoon hours. Wind NW-N around 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Warm and muggy. Lows from the upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind variable to SW under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Very hot and humid. Highs from the upper 80s Cape Cod and Islands to middle 90s interior southern NH and eastern MA as well as northern RI. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 75. High 90.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 84.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 61. High 81.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 82.

SUNDAY:  Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 84.

8:39AM

A disturbance is crossing the region this morning. This disturbance has a little more punch than I expected it to, giving me a bit of a wake-up call with extensive clouds and even some scattered showers and isolated downpours around southern New England. The clouds will be the most prominent feature of this disturbance and not so much any rainfall as it hangs around and then finally wanders away during the course of today.

The only tweaks to the previous forecast besides for today will be to add a risk of thunderstorms to Sunday afternoon as it looks like the atmosphere will be a little more  primed to pop something. Also going to bump temperatures up slightly for the first half of next week.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy this morning except a few sunnier areas just south of Boston with a slight chance of a few additional mainly isolated showers. Partly sunny this afternoon. Highs around 90 most areas, slightly cooler Cape Cod & Islands. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Humid. Lows 65-70. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny and hazy. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon. Hot and humid. Highs around 90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy AM. Mostly sunny PM. Low 70. High 91.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 71. High 93.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny AM. Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms late day. Low 72. High 95.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 88.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 85.

3:37PM

Here we are. High pressure ridge now dominating as we enter a long stretch of very warm to hot weather, including some humidity for at least a few of the days (this weekend). The only real rain threat I see is from a few thunderstorms that may visit as disturbances pass, current timing about Sunday night and middle of next week.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING: Haze/smoke aloft filtering the sun. Highs upper 80s to  around 90. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Haze/smoke aloft. Partly cloudy. More humid. Lows 63-68. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Hazy sunshine. Hot, humid. Highs upper 80s to lower 90s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear but hazy. Warm and muggy. Lows upper 60s to around 70. Wind light SW.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny and hazy. Hot and muggy. Highs in the lower 90s. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy AM. Mostly sunny PM. Low 68. High 89.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 69. High 91.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny AM. Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms late day. Low 70. High 93.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 88.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 85.

3:48PM

You’ll notice some unwatered lawns starting to brown up. Topsoil has been drying out with a lack of regular rain lately. This will go on for at least a few more days and possibly longer, if what minor to moderate shower and thunderstorm threat that presents itself around Monday doesn’t produce very much.

As for the air (humidity), it’s been pretty dry in that department too, but that will be changing this weekend as a muggy airmass finally comes for a visit.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON: Sunshine & some clouds. Warm and dry. Temperatures holding in the 80s except 70s some coastal areas. Wind variable around 10 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Mild and comfortable. Lows near 60 except middle 60s urban areas. Wind light S-SW.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Hot but still lacking humidity. High around 90 most areas, lower to middle 80s Cape & Islands. Wind SW-W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Mild and slightly more humid. Lows middle to upper 60s. Wind W-SW around 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Haze, heat, and humidity more dominant. Highs reach the lower 90s most areas, holding 80s some coastal areas that face south. Wind SW-S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny and hazy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late day or night. Low 68. High 88.

MONDAY: Partly sunny and hazy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 70. High 89.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 90.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 88.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers or thunderstorms. Low 68. High 88.

3:17PM

See the previous discussion, because at this time I see no need to change anything. Just adding a couple days early next week to the forecast for eastern MA, RI, & southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from the middle 50s inland  to lower 60s coast. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs from 75 east-facing coastal areas to 85 well inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Low 60-65, some 50s inland valleys. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High 75 coast to 85 inland. Wind variable around 10 MPH with sea breezes.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 88.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 88.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 68. High 86.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 88.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 87.

9:06PM

High pressure holds strong enough, I believe, to keep the region mainly dry for the foreseeable future. The position of the high pressure at the surface being a little further north for a time at midweek along with low pressure to the south will bring a wind in off the ocean, keeping east coastal areas somewhat cooler. A more southwesterly flow late in the week will bring some heat into the region along with an increase in humidity.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows drop to around 50 inland valleys to lower 60s in Boston. Wind light variable.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 82-87 except cooler south-facing coasts. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from the middle 50s inland  to lower 60s coast. Wind light variable.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs from 75 east-facing coastal areas to 85 well inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Low 61. High 75 coast to 85 inland.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 88.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 88.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 68. High 86.

7:06PM

A weak trough in eastern Canada will push a westerly jet stream flow over New England with dry weather for much of the coming week. This flow will relax later in the week as some of the heat that has plagued the Midwest tries to edge toward the region. Before that can happen, it will be comfortable for a good portion of the week, with no significant rain threats. It looks like a disturbance on Tuesday will pass south of the region, far enough so that rain does not work into the region, and an ocean breeze at midweek may help to pop a few showers as it runs up against opposing winds inland, but this is a low probability. It remains unclear if any showery weather will accompany the return of humidity at the end of the week. That will be something to monitor. Going to keep the forecast mainly dry through Saturday and introduce a shower and thunderstorm threat for next Sunday when we could be hearing from either or both a front from the north and tropical moisture from the south.

Forecast for the week ahead for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly clear overnight. Lows dropping to the upper 50s inland areas, near 60 at the coast and lower to middle 60s  urban centers. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower to middle 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower to middle 60s. Wind SW 5-10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, coolest at south-facing coastal areas. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated afternoon shower inland areas. Low 60. High 75 coast to 83 inland.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated afternoon shower inland areas. Low 60. High 75 coast to 83 inland.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny and hazy. Low 63. High 86.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny and hazy. Low 67. High 89.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy and hazy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 68. High 89.

8:50AM (original post) / 12:20PM (update for afternoon sky condition)

The next 7 days have the potential to be rain-free anywhere and possibly everywhere in southern New England. This would be accomplished by way of a northwesterly flow above us behind a trough of low pressure in eastern Canada for the first half of the week and a building ridge of high pressure later in the week. These are the things that can threaten the dry forecast: 1) A weak disturbance south of the region early Tuesday, which would likely produce clouds for a time but possibly a touch of light shower activity in far southern New England. 2) A sea breeze boundary Wednesday and/or Thursday which could ignite a few afternoon showers somewhere back from the immediate coast. 3) An area of moisture to the south late in the week (around Friday) if it came further north than expected. As for humidity, today into the middle of the week will feature low humidity and lack of significant heat. This may change at the end of the week. For now, the dry scenario forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH looks like this (with an update coming tonight).

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the middle to upper 80s, cooler some coastal points. Wind NW-N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s but some middle 60s in urban centers. Wind NW under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-88. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: AM clouds, PM sun. Low 66. High 84.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Low 63. High 75 coast to 83 inland.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Low 64. High 75 coast to 83 inland.

FRIDAY: AM clouds, PM sun. Low 65. High 87.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Low 68. High 89.

10:23AM

* More clouds today, may cap heat a bit, and limit showers/storms

* Staying optimistic for Sunday

* Great weather much of upcoming week

More on next week’s weather by tomorrow. For now, just an updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered showers and a slight risk of a thunderstorm mainly north of the Mass Pike through midday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly south of the Mass Pike remainder of afternoon and early evening. Highs in the 80s, may touch 90 in a few areas. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 65-70. Wind NW-N 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-88, cooler in a few coastal areas and Cape Cod/Islands. Wind NW-N 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 85.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 62. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 82.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 63. High 80.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 64. High 85.

For me, personally, this is a 9-day weekend, and being about half way through it, I’m looking back at the weather that has been and ahead of what is coming up, for both personal plans and for all the readers here!

This entry will focus on what is upcoming for the remainder of this week and a peek into next. A commentary below the entry will address a few questions from the previous blog and some of my observations from the 4th of July.

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4:32PM

A northerly flow and a sea breeze are doing a little battle this afternoon as some clouds have built up. The “sea breeze front” is right in the 128/95 belt in Metro  West as of 4PM and some moderate cumulus clouds have developed along it. As of the time of this writing, there are no showers occurring, but we cannot rule out 1 or 2 popping up during the next hour or so, until the sun starts to sink into the sky and the fuel source is diminished.

Other than this sea breeze front action, it will be a quiet evening and night and a very summery day tomorrow as high pressure dominates. A southerly flow will become established tomorrow as humidity starts to return, but you will really notice it on Saturday, which will be a triple-H day (hazy, hot, humid). In addition, a thunderstorm threat will exist on Saturday as a cold front approaches. It is too early to say how widespread or strong any storms will be. But it is safe to say there will be some potential for strong storms.

Sunday will be a transition day back to warm/dry weather as the cold front moves offshore. This is expected to lead to a dry and seasonably warm first half of next week as a northwesterly flow dominates.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON / EARLY EVENING: Variably cloudy including a slight risk of 1 or 2 pop up showers mainly near to just west of Boston. Temperatures cooling to near 70 at the east-facing shores and near 80 elsewhere. Wind N to E 5-15 MPH.

LATE EVENING / TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s. Wind light variable becoming S.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear and becoming hazy. Lows 65-70. Wind SSW 5-10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Hazy sunshine. Chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Hot and humid. Highs around 90, but near 80 parts of Cape Cod and Islands. Wind SW 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms early. Lows 65-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH shifting to W.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 80s. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 60. High 80.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 60. High 82.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 62. High 83.

THURSDAY:  Sunny. Low 63. High 84.

4:06PM

As a splendid summer day comes to an end, we look ahead to the 4th of July holiday tomorrow, and what the weather will bring. Will outdoor plans get messed up? Will fireworks displays go off as scheduled? Though the exact answer to these questions is not answerable yet for every location, the general answer is that outdoor plans will not get messed up too much and that fireworks displays will be a go in just about every location. This is based on the timing of both a warm front crossing the region in the morning and a cold front arriving in the evening, and the weather in between the 2 fronts…

As the sun sinks in the western sky this Tuesday evening you will notice some high clouds out there. This is the leading edge of a warm front that will move across New England from west to east during the Wednesday morning hours. A complex of showers and thunderstorms will be associated with this warm front, and may be quite strong as it approaches the area from the west. My feeling is that the area overall will be weakening as it arrives near or shortly after dawn. It may still be strong enough to bring a threatening sky, some gusty wind, and a round of showers and storms with possible heavy rain. This should then exit west to east by mid morning, and the sky will brighten as clouds break behind it. The key to any afternoon and evening thunderstorms is how much sun occurs between the passage of the warm front in the morning and the arrival of the cold front in the evening. I suspect plenty of sun to the west, over western New England and New York, will ignite a line or 2 of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Some other isolated showers and storms may pop up further east in parts of central and eastern MA, and southern NH, and even RI, but I don’t expect any of these to organize into large areas or linger over any location for very long. Previous experience tells me that lines of storms from the west in this set up will eventually take an east southeast route from western MA across CT and RI. If this is the case, the main activity would miss the Boston area. Also, any storms that do make it into eastern MA may weaken as this area may not have enough sun to become very unstable during the afternoon. One thing is for sure, it will turn warm and rather humid during the day on Wednesday, but highest temperatures should be in the middle to possibly upper 80s, at least below the 90+ readings that would make a humid day very difficult to be outside in.

When we get to Wednesday night, I think any activity that is going on will be moving out by 9PM, in time for most fireworks displays. The rest of the night should be fairly quiet but warm and still on the humid side. It will take until Thursday morning for drier air to work in enough to be felt.

Thursday will be a great summer day as high pressure dominates with warm, drier air. This high pressure area will slide offshore into the western Atlantic Friday and Saturday, allowing heat and eventually humidity back into the region. An approaching cold front later Saturday may set off some thunderstorms, but the timing of this system many days away is uncertain. The front may slow down and keep Saturday storm-free, but make Sunday unsettled. Time will tell. Early next week looks seasonable and dry.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clouds increase west to east. Lows 62-67. Wind SW to S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning with showers and thunderstorms crossing the region from west to east. Briefly gusty winds and briefly heavy rain may occur anywhere. Partly cloudy from midday through most of the afternoon with only a slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm in a few locations. Variably cloudy late day/evening with another risk of showers and thunderstorms, favoring areas southwest and south of Boston. More humid. Highs in the 80s, some upper 70s Cape Cod and Islands. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Any showers and storms ending early, then partly cloudy. Evening temperatures hanging in the 70s then overnight lows in the 60s. Humid. Wind variable around 10 MPH shifting to N.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 83-88, closer to 80  parts of Cape Cod and Islands and any north-facing coastal areas. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 89.

SATURDAY: Hazy sunshine. Low 71. High 94.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 73. High 86.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 60. High 80.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 60. High 84.

8:14AM

A summertime week, with very warm to hot weather as a generally west to east flow dominates over the top of a ridge of high pressure dominating much of the central and eastern US. Much of the time will be rain-free in southern New England, but thunderstorms are possible in response to passing disturbances. Timing of these is always difficult but the current timing suggests Monday afternoon, Wednesday, and sometime over the weekend.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, RI…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Highs generally in the 80s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms until midnight. Clearing overnight. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the middle to upper 80s. Wind variable around 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY – INDEPENDENCE DAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the lower to middle 80s. Wind S 10-15 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 66. High 87.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 68. High 90.

SATURDAY: Hazy sunshine. Low 69. High 92.

SUNDAY:  Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. High 85.