9:16PM

Moving forward from Sandy will be much easier in much of southern New England (with some exceptions on the South Coast) than for our neighbors in NY & NJ. I wish them the best.

Not going to spend any time reviewing. You’ve all seen the news, read the stories, seen the pictures, and experienced whatever you did. It indeed was a very historic storm, and will go down in history alongside the other big ones:  Blizzard of 1888. Blizzard of 1978. All the hurricanes that have impacted the region. Superstorm 1993. The Perfect Storm And others…

The low pressure area that was Sandy will spin down and slowly drift northward across NY Wednesday and down the St. Lawrence River Valley late in the week. It will take until the weekend for the upper low to completely clear the area, so even though wet weather will leave, some clouds will linger at least through Friday and possibly into the start of the weekend. The mild tropical air we had during Tuesday will be replaced gradually with cooler and drier air as the week goes on.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 55-60. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered showers through early afternoon. Highs 63-68. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY EVENING (trick or treat): Variably cloudy. Temperature cooling into the 50s. Wind SSW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 43-48. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 51-56. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 41. High 54.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 38. High 52.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 51.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain or snow showers at night. Low 31. High 47.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers early. Low 34. High 48.

8:24PM

Hello to all the readers! I appreciate you being here, whether you are a frequent participant, lurker, or new to the blog! Thanks for all the great comments and observations and thoughts! I appreciate them! I hope everybody is safe. I realize that some of you reading this are probably reading from a mobile device as you sit in the dark with no power. I hope you get your power restored as soon as possible.

This entry isn’t going to focus too much on what has already happened. We can read comments here, our FB pages, turn on the news, etc. etc. to see the pictures and comments. Some of us have damage in our yards or neighborhoods. Some of us are lucky to this point with not much more than a yard full of leaves. And the coast… I think we’ve seen the worst there, but not out of the woods yet (one more high tide through midnight to worry about).  I don’t think Tuesday’s noontime high tide will cause too much additional trouble. This entry is going to look at the remainder of the storm’s impact on southern New England and a peek ahead into early November.

The center of Sandy is now over NJ. The NHC forecast track was very good, and Sandy took her sharp left turn late in the afternoon and actually strengthened before landfall. This was taking place while the storm was losing tropical characteristics, but she still retains enough of those characteristics to be pulling a slug of warm, tropical air northwestward into southern New England. We have seen the band of steady rain that came across the region late in the afternoon lift to the north and be replaced by rapidly-moving convective showers. This will continue through Tuesday, with even the chance that some thunder occurs. For the next several hours (into late Monday night) these convective showers will be most numerous and will drag down strong winds from just above, and still produce some powerful and potentially damaging wind gusts across much of southern New England, even though the sustained winds will be dropping off. We’ll be seeing these winds which were northeast to east, shift more to the southeast with time. A gradual subsiding of the wind will begin later tonight and continue through Tuesday. As the center of the low pressure area spins down (weakens) slowly, it will drift northward through eastern PA and NY through Wednesday, then down the St. Lawrence Valley Thursday & Friday, not completely letting go of our area until the weekend, when high pressure will dominate.

Here is an updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI, including a look at Halloween Night for those areas trick or treating. Some areas held their trick or treating this past Saturday, and some will likely postpone until this coming weekend due to the cleanup from the storm (I’m sure we’ll see a list of these locations soon)…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to  numerous showers, some heavy, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Some of the most intense rain should occur 8:30PM-10:00PM in eastern MA and RI, reaching southern NH as well. Temperatures rising into the 60s and turning more humid. Wind E to SE 20-40 MPH gusting 50-60 MPH (higher in a few locations) early, diminishing gradually overnight. Coastal flooding will continue, and will increase and be moderate in vulnerable areas, especially Cape Cod and the South Coast including RI, for high tides that begin around 8PM and run through midnight depending on location.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. Mild & muggy. Highs 65-70. Wind SE 15-25 MPH with higher gusts. A few powerful gusts may still occur in isolated locations where heavier showers are.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 55-60. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 63-68. Wind S 10-20 MPH gusting up to 30 MPH.

WEDNESDAY EVENING: Variably cloudy. Temperature around 60. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 44. High 55.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 43. High 54.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 52.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 51.

12:50AM

The format is altered a little for this entry to shorten things up yet cover everything in a forecast for the next 7 days.

Decided to go ahead with the regular Sunday night post. It will just be front-end-loaded with info of course, with an update regarding Sandy and her impact, or the impact of the storm that was once Sandy, as it still loses tropical characteristics just prior to landfall on the coast of NJ. As stated in the previous entry, a large area of strong to damaging wind as well as coastal flooding and storm surge will exist north of the storm center which includes all of southern New England. I will save the wind break down and rainfall and storm surge numbers for the forecast below. Note that the only real changes to this forecast are to speed up the landfall time a little bit, therefore moving up the peak hours of the storm to during the late morning through late evening of Monday. There will be slight adjustments upward to the storm surge numbers and no big changes with the previous wind forecast and rainfall amounts. Still looking for things to subside Tuesday and Wednesday, with more improvement later in the week as November gets underway. The low pressure area that was Sandy will take much of the week to really leave the area, drifting northward through NY Wednesday then down the St. Lawrence River Valley Thursday and Friday. High pressure finally dominates for next weekend, which should be nice.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

THROUGH WEDNESDAY…

Weather: Overcast through Monday night, mostly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday. Periods of rain/drizzle through Monday morning, an episode of heavier rain Monday afternoon/evening, tapering off to periodic showers Monday night through Tuesday, then showers becoming less numerous and scattered Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Temperatures: Ranging from the lower 50s early Monday to the middle 60s Tuesday & Wednesday afternoons.

Winds: NE-E increasing through Monday afternoon to sustained 25-35 MPH inland and 35-45 MPH coast, but gusts much higher, 40-60 MPH inland and 45-75 MPH coastal areas and some inland higher elevations. Isolated peak gusts above 75 MPH may occur especially South Shore, Cape Cod, and Islands. By later Monday night, winds start to subside slowly but are still strong and gusty at times. Tuesday, winds shift more to the SE 15-25 MPH with a few higher gusts especially coastal areas and higher elevations, and by Wednesday winds are mostly from the S 10-20 MPH.

Coastal Flooding: Full Moon occurring Monday enhances flooding. High tides 11AM Monday, midnight Monday night, and noon Tuesday, are the 3 of most concern, especially the Monday highs. This is when flooding will  peak and storm surge of up to a few feet can occur, especially on the South Coast, parts of Cape Cod, and RI.

Rain amounts and freshwater flooding: Rain amounts of 1 to just over 2 inches will be common, but some 3 or 4 inch and even isolated 5 inch amounts can be expected as winds blow up slope and rainfall is enhanced on the eastern slopes of hills and mountains in central MA into southwestern NH. Flash flooding may occur in these heavier rain areas. Otherwise, just a few areas of minor flooding are possible with street flooding in some locations where leaves block storm drains.

OUTLOOK FOR LATE WEEK… Variably cloudy Thursday & Friday with lows in the 40s and highs in the 50s.

OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND… Mostly sunny to partly cloudy Saturday & Sunday with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s and highs in the lower to middle 50s.

One quick note! I hope to be online throughout the storm (with the exception of several hours during the day Monday when I will be out). If for some reason a power loss prevents me from updating, I will get on as soon as power is restored. Please, everybody, be smart and safe during the storm, no matter where you are. I hope you are prepared for the worst, but let’s hope for the best! And thanks to all of you for being part of the blog!

2:00AM

Sandy will no longer be Sandy when the impacts of the storm are felt here. But what’s in a name? I’ll leave it to the readers to debate whether or not that makes a difference in how people hear and interpret information. The meteorological truth is that Sandy will be a category one hurricane into Monday as it moves northward off the US Mid Atlantic Coast, and as it begins a left turn toward the NJ coast, it will lose tropical characteristics, and will no longer be tropical (by definition) by the time the center of the storm reaches land on the NJ coast Monday night.

We should not be focusing only on where that center crosses the coast, as the storm already has a very wide wind field and this will expand further as it loses tropical characteristics. This is the reason why significant and some damaging wind will take place in the forecast area in southern New England.

So, this storm, though very significant, will not be a “classic” New England hurricane. Here’s a summary of what to expect in the region starting in southern areas late Sunday night and spreading northward Monday into Monday night, before slowly subsiding Tuesday as the storm spins down over land…

Wind: A moderate northeast breeze will develop Sunday but winds will not be that significant during the day. They will increase at night and build during the day Monday, peaking during the hours of 3PM to midnight Monday afternoon and night. During the peak time, winds will blow from the northeast to east. Sustained winds will be 25-35 MPH inland except 30-40 MPH in higher elevations and 35-45 MPH in coastal locations. Gusts will be 45-65 MPH inland, 55-70 MPH higher elevations and coastal areas. For Cape Cod and the Islands, add 5 to 10 MPH to all of these wind speeds. Isolated peak gusts that are slightly stronger may occur. Again, please remember that the gusts are just that, gusts, not sustained winds. During these gusts are when most of the wind damage takes place.

Coastal flooding: Widespread moderate coastal flooding is likely at the times of high tides, with the most critical high tides around 11AM Monday, midnight Monday night, and noon Tuesday. Areas of major flooding may occur at high tide times in portions of the South Shore of MA, Cape Cod and the Islands, and RI. Storm surge peak will occur on the South Coast of New England for Monday night’s high tide. Storm surge of up to 5 feet above normal tides may occur. Keep in mind that these high tide cycles are occurring during the time of a full moon. Astronomical tides are higher during full and new moon times.

Rain: This storm will NOT be a major rain producer. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches will be common. Isolated 3 to 4 inch amounts are possible, especially where rainfall can be enhanced by air moving up the slopes of hills in north central MA and southwestern NH. Any flooding from rain would be mostly minor to locally moderate and only in the most flood prone areas.

By Tuesday, the worst will be over, and though winds will still be very gusty it will be much less stormy than Monday. Winds will shift more to the southeast as the low pressure area spins over the interior Northeast. Additional showers will take place, though the heaviest rain will be over. The remains of the storm will continue to spin down and decay on Wednesday over the interior northeastern US. There will be additional showers in our area but some drier air will also work up from the south and southwest with periods of improved weather. As November gets underway, the trough will lift out and be replaced by high pressure and improving weather into next weekend.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog early. Chance of light rain or drizzle late afternoon. Highs 56-61. Wind NE 5-10 MPH to start increasing to 10-20 MPH by late in the day, gusts around 25-30 MPH may take place by the end of the day Cape Cod & South Coast.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of rain. Lows 50-55. Wind NE 10-20 MPH inland and 20-30 MPH coastal areas, with higher gusts.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain. Highs around 60. Lows around 55. Wind NE shifting more E later, increasing to 25-45 MPH with gusts 45-70 MPH inland (see above for more detail).

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Periods of showers. Highs around 65. Lows around 55. Wind SE 20-35 MPH with higher gusts,  slowly subsiding.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A few additional episodes of showers. Highs 60-65. Wind S 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 47. High 56.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 55.

THANK YOU EVERYBODY for being patient while it took me forever to update this blog. I was at a conference for nearly 12 hours today, and hit some famous Boston traffic on Route 93 heading back home, and between needing to refuel and rest, the result was a long delay in updating. Thanks for sticking with me! Please use the comments below for questions, observations, and other thoughts regarding this storm or anything weather-related.

Also, if you are on Facebook, don’t forget to “like” the Woods Hill Weather page and tell you friends about it. 🙂

1:59AM

There is still enough spread in the guidance to keep me from getting too confident on the track of Sandy, and precisely which shore she will land upon, and at what intensity, and even whether or not she will still be a tropical system.

I realize the above paragraph makes me sound confused and uncertain, but that’s not the case. Just noting that there is still significant room for error, I will now give my best guess of how the next several days will play out, including the details of the storm.

Friday: A weak boundary between cool air to the north and east and milder air coming from the southwest will hold some areas of clouds in to start the day but most of these will evaporate and move away with sunshine and milder air being dominant during the day and some patchy fog forming at night.

Saturday: A cold front approaches from the west but falls apart against the approaching circulation from Sandy, leaving the day partly sunny and mild and the night fair but with once again some patchy fog.

Sunday: The large circulation of Sandy will make itself known in the form of a northeast breeze and eventually a chance of some rain or drizzle moving in from the Atlantic. At this time, Sandy will still be a hurricane moving northeastward off the coast of the Carolinas.

Monday-Wednesday / Sandy’s Impacts: Sandy will be captured by a trough of low pressure moving into the East Coast States and be drawn north to northwest while losing tropical characteristics and weakening slightly. During this process, the wind field associated with Sandy will expand, as is typical for this kind of transition. High pressure to the north will also have an impact, enhancing winds on the north side of the storm. Threats from Sandy for southern New England will be coastal flooding, some heavy rain, and wind damage from strong easterly winds. The degree of impact will be determined by the track of the storm, as its position will relate directly to the placement of strongest winds and heaviest rain. My best guess as of this posting is that the center of Sandy will reach the New Jersey shore late Monday night or Tuesday morning as a storm that recently lost tropical characteristics after weakening to just below hurricane intensity. Regardless of any weakening and loss of tropical air, Sandy will be a large storm and impact a significant area. In southern New England, this track would mean pounding surf with coastal flooding, most significant along the South Coast, and some heavy rain with localized flooding possible from it, and strong northeast to east wind with some damage possible. The worst of this should take place Monday night into Tuesday. The center of Sandy will do a loop and then should eventually lift more to the north by Wednesday. With luck some drier air coming around the storm’s circulation will get involved and conditions will improve slightly for Halloween. Also, keep in mind that the final track of  the storm is not 100% certain. A further southward track would lessen the impact in the region while a track a bit further north would result in more significant impact.

Forecast details for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

TODAY: Clouds giving way to sun. Highs 63-68. Winds variable to S under 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-55. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 61-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 50-55. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain or drizzle especially eastern coastal areas. Highs 55-60. Wind NE increasing to 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain/wind developing. Low 51. High 58.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain/wind continuing. Low 52. High 57.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers/breezy. Low 51. High 63.

9:56PM

What Is: Decent weather Thursday through Saturday as narrow high pressure dominates. Not cloud-free the entire time, but pleasant.

What May Be: The weather from later Sunday through the final 3 days of October will be determined by the eventual track of Hurricane Sandy, her evolution toward a post tropical cyclone, and her interaction with a blocked jet stream pattern over North America and the North Atlantic. Instead of getting into grand detail at this stage, it is fair to say that most guidance is now in agreement that something is going to happen. The details are still yet to be worked out, but there is a decent chance of a large coastal storm impacting the region with wind and rain. The exact storm track and the extent of impact remain to be seen. Stay tuned…

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows around 50. Wind S under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 66.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 48. High 58.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Possible rain/wind. Low 51. High 58.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Possible rain/wind. Low 52. High 57.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 47. High 55.

4:40PM

It’s quietly continuing drier than normal, with long term rainfall deficits of 3 inches or more, and no significant rain in sight for southern New England.

A frontal system sitting southwest of the region is acting as an avenue for clouds, which have been fanning across the sky, especially over southern MA and RI, during Tuesday. These clouds will hang in for tonight with only a slight chance a touch of light rain goes across RI and far southern MA, but as we get into Wednesday, dry air wins out again and sunshine increases in all areas, continuing Thursday and Friday along with a moderating temperature trend as high pressure dominates.

The weekend should feature more sun then clouds Saturday and more clouds than sun Sunday as an early call, with mild air Saturday only cooling slightly on Sunday. We will be between a frontal system to the west, which will approach later Sunday, and forecast Hurricane Sandy in the western Atlantic. The track of Sandy and any possible interaction with the jet stream and US East Coast is still highly uncertain. The only reflection of this possibility will be in a forecast shower threat at the end of the period. Don’t read too much into it at this time, as there is plenty of time to work out what will happen early next week.

In the mean time, the forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clouds dominate, thickest south and west of Boston, with only a slight chance of brief light rain in southern MA and RI. Lows 40-45 to the north, 44-49 to the south. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind light variable to NE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 43-48 but as low as 40 in a few inland valleys. Wind variable under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 66.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 67.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 50. High 62.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 48. High 59.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 48. High 58.

10:19PM

Due to medium range model guidance that is clearly on a sugar and caffeine high, resulting in my confidence in it being low, I will make this a short discussion, focused on the work week and only touching on next weekend.

Early week (Monday-Tuesday): Upper level low pressure pulls away Monday and high pressure builds in through Tuesday, though a warm front to the southwest of New England may already start sending some high clouds into the region during Tuesday after a bright and seasonably cool day to start the week on Monday.

Mid week (Wednesday-Thursday): A warm front will produce lots of clouds for Wednesday. Optimism wins out for Thursday, which I think will feature a return to sun as a high pressure ridge builds over the region as the front weakens and pushes north.

Late week / weekend (Friday-Sunday):  Narrow ridge of high pressure over the region Friday with fair, mild weather. Front approaches from the west over the weekend but may stay far enough west to allow mostly fair and mild weather to dominate. We’ll also watch a potential tropical or hybrid system to the south but there is far too much uncertainty on the development and track of such a system this far out to even worry about any details regarding it.

Forecast for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 35-40 except lower 40s urban areas. Wind light NW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 48. High 58.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 49. High 62.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 64.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 51. High 66.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 52. High 67.

10:13AM

Some of you were awakened, or kept up late, by thunderstorms in the overnight hours. Quite impressive for October and fueled by dew point temperatures in the 60s, quite muggy. With that all offshore now, we are finding that the optimistic forecast for today is going to indeed work out, with the last sprinkles around this morning now gone, and clouds getting set to yield to sunshine, which will dominate the afternoon. The air will continue to be very mild today even as it dries out, with a dry slot of air moving in from the southwest around the upper level low pressure area still centered to the northwest of southern New England.

We still have to get the upper low by the region on Sunday, so  look for a day that starts bright, but then sees some clouds rotate in and develop during the afternoon and evening (though any showers should stay in the mountains far to the west and north). It will also be cooler on Sunday, and even more so on Monday as the upper low finally heads out through eastern Canada and delivers a reinforcing shot of Canadian air to New England.

Beyond Monday, I’m still leaning toward a week that may be a bit on the fence, at least in terms of cloud cover. For now, I’m going to keep things on the dry side, as this pattern has been proving to be drier overall than many of the longer range outlooks have pointed to. I’ve been a skeptic of the wet forecasts myself, and continue to feel that way. Rainfall deficits continue for the region.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Clouds depart, sun takes over. Highs around 70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Sunshine dominates then shares the sky with clouds later. Highs around 60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 39. High 59.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 44. High 63.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 44. High 60.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 60.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 46. High 63.

12:15AM

A low pressure trough west of New England will slowly lift north northeastward through the weekend. The circulation around this will bring different weather to our region on a daily basis through Monday. Surface low pressure on the eastern side of this trough will bring wet weather to the area today. Drier air coming around the trough will put an end to the wet weather and allow for some clearing and mild weather Saturday. Cooler air and some clouds will rotate back in on Sunday as the base of the upper low makes its closest pass northwest to north of the region. Once this is beyond the region the coolest shot of air will come through on Monday but that should also be a fairly bright day.

Quickly looking ahead toward the middle of next week, with moderate to low confidence I’m looking at some cloudiness and milder weather. There may also be some wet weather trying to move in as well as there are some indications of a little battle zone between chilly air to the north and mild air to the south.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain and showers, possibly heavy at times. Highs 60-65. Wind SE 5-15 MPH inland areas, 10-20 MPH with a few higher gusts in coastal locations.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Periods of rain and showers, some possibly heavy, tapering off before dawn. Lows 50-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning with a few lingering showers Cape Cod early. Mostly sunny in the afternoon. Highs around 70. Wind SW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 45-50. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Highs around 60. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 55.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 35. High 60.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 45. High 64.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 58.

11:23PM

First, a brief word on the earthquake that occurred on Tuesday evening, centered in Maine. Did indeed feel it here and all over the Northeast. This light quake, though not a frequent occurrence, is not all that unusual either for this part of the country.  Thankfully, no injuries and no major damage have occurred as a result of this quake, though minor damage did take place in a few locations from southern Maine to the VT/NH border (nails out of siding, items falling off shelves, etc.) . Do not be surprised if a few aftershocks are detected.

Now, on to the weather. After a cooler, gusty day on Tuesday, high pressure will slide just south of New England then offshore during midweek. This will result in 2 very nice days around here with abundant sunshine and milder air. An upper level disturbance will send some clouds across the region Wednesday night. Regarding the unsettled weather threat late this week, there are no changes to the previous discussion. I still believe Friday will be the wet day as low pressure moves around an upper level trough centered west of New England. The surface low should move away to the northeast as the upper trough lifts more to the north, allowing drier air to move in during the weekend. Early next week looks mild to start but we’ll be watching another front approaching to see what the timing turns out to be on it.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-65. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to SW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 45-50. Wind SW around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-68. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 50-55. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain developing from southwest to northeast. Highs 61-66. Wind SE 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of showers eastern areas early. Low 54. High 63.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 61.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 67.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 49. High 64.

9:09PM

A cold front will amble its way across southern New England tonight and early Tuesday. Showers, a few heavy, will traverse the region during the evening before becoming less numerous overnight. Clouds may hang on over eastern areas of MA and the NH Seacoast region early Tuesday as the front slides offshore. Much drier and cooler air will flow in during the day Tuesday setting us up for a chilly Tuesday night and early Wednesday. But with things moving right along in the atmosphere, high pressure will pass rapidly south of the region and winds will switch from northwest to southwest during the day Wednesday. Temperatures will respond with a recovery during the day. A disturbance passing through the region will bring some cloudiness Wednesday night.  A warm up with fair weather will continue into Thursday ahead of approaching low pressure. I am continuing to favor a more progressive (faster west-to-east movement) solution for late this week with a trough sending an area of rain or showers in on Friday but then pushing it out during Saturday as dry air rushes in from the west around the base of the trough as it lifts toward southeastern Canada. An early look at Sunday-Monday points to fair and mild to warm weather as high pressure builds south of New England.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers becoming scattered to isolated late. Patchy fog. Lows 50-55. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts shifting to W.

TUESDAY: Any lingering showers over Cape Cod end early with clearing west to east in the morning then mostly sunny to partly cloudy with fair weather clouds popping up in the afternoon. Highs 56-61. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 35-40 inland, 40-45 coast & urban centers. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny through mid afternoon with a few more clouds late in the day. Highs 60-65. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to SW.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 67.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 52. High 62.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 46. High 60.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 68.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 76.

7:34PM

The weekend was a showcase of how changeable the weather can be in New England, no matter the season. We went from the chilly winds of Friday night to the frosty cold  Saturday morning to the bright & crisp Saturday afternoon to the showers/rain of Sunday morning to the emerging mild sun and increasing humidity of late in the day Sunday.

Now looking into the week upcoming, there will be some changes again to occur, especially early and late in the week. Obviously the more certain part of the forecast is the early to mid part of the week. A cold front will slide across the region late Monday, preceded by variably cloudy skies, very mild air, a gusty wind, and an increasing chance of showers especially late in the day and at night.

Tuesday through Thursday will be dominated by high pressure with fair weather.

The late week and weekend forecast is tricky, with conflicting guidance. I’m going to go with a more progressive solution which will bring unsettled weather in on Friday but move it along and out of the region Saturday, setting up a fairly decent weekend. This part of the forecast is low confidence and subject to change as the week goes along.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 53-58. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers in the afternoon, greatest chance late day. Highs 63-68 south-facing coasts, 68-73 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, gusts to 25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers. Lows 50-55. Wind SW 1o-15 MPH shifting to W.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 60-65. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 64.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 49. High 68.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 51. High 63.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 48. High 60.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 60.

8:46AM

Quick update (full one later)… Eastern MA, RI, and southern NH forecast…

TODAY: Cloudy. Numerous showers this morning becoming isolated this afternoon. Temperatures rising from the upper 40s to upper 50s during the day. Wind S up to 10 MPH eventually becoming SW up to 15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Slight chance of showers. Temperatures steady 55-60. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers increasing again by late. Highs around 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting up to 30 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 50. High 63.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 61.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 41. High 63.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers. Low 50. High 68.

8:35PM

It’s coming to southern New England, the first widespread frost, and in some areas, a freeze that will end the growing season (and kill the mosquitoes and allergy-causing weeds). But that will be Saturday morning. Before that happens, we have Friday, which will be a day in which the cold front marks the leading edge of this chilly air will traverse the region, accompanied by lots of clouds and a  few showers. By late in the day, the sky will clear out and though winds will remain gusty into the evening, delivering the cold air, the winds will slacken off later at night and allow temperatures to fall significantly.

After a crisp and cool Saturday, perfect for outdoor Autumn activities, a strong southwesterly air flow will drive mild air into the region on Sunday, accompanied by clouds and a shower threat. This mild weather and shower threat will last into Monday as a wave of low pressure moves through the region. This will be followed by high pressure and fair weather for the middle of next week.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing clouds overnight. Lows 42-47. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the morning. Partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon then clearing late. Highs 54-59. Wind SW 10-15 MPH shifting to NW 15-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Widespread frost forming. A few fog patches over valleys, swamps, and bogs. Lows 27-32 except 32-38 urban centers and immediate coast. Wind NW diminishing to under 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 53-58. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 45-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers morning. Variably cloudy afternoon. Highs 65-70. Wind SW 15-25 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 70.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 64.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 49. High 61.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 42. High 69.