9:21AM

Lots going on in the coming days! Let’s break it down then follow it with an updated detailed forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

Saturday / Sunday … Warm front pushes through the region first thing Saturday putting the region in a slice of mild but windy weather into Sunday until an arctic cold front arrives from the west and introduces the coldest air of the season so far. However, this air will not plunge in all at once, but we will see the temperature fall off steadily later in the day after a mild early and middle part of the day. Still not sure if we see any rain/snow showers with the front and a small trough coming along right behind it, but I will toss them into the forecast just in case.

Monday / Tuesday … As the arctic air becomes established, a southward extension of the Polar Vortex (ask me if you missed the definition of the PV previously) will kick off a storm just south to southeast of New England. An inverted trough, or extension of elongated low pressure northwest of the low center, will create instability and this should be enough to get snow to develop over the region Monday night into Tuesday. Though not expected to become a major snowstorm, accumulation is likely, and may be enhanced by onshore winds in many coastal areas.

Wednesday / Thursday … The coldest air mass many of us have seen in 2 years will be here as the arctic comes for a visit (in modified form of course, but still quite cold for southern New England).

End of week … Uncertain about this, but watching the potential for a winter storm. Just simply too early to be sure how this will play out. Plenty of time to chase this potential down.

Forecast details …

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 43-48. Wind SW 15-25 MPH gusting over 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 33-38. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting over 25 MPH.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy through early afternoon with a slight chance of rain showers. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny remainder of day with a very slight chance of snow showers. Highs 42-47 by midday then falling into the 30s. Wind SW 15-30 MPH shifting to W.

MONDAY: Partly to mostly cloudy. Snow showers especially later afternoon and night. Low 15. High 27.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow or snow showers likely especially during the morning. Low 12. High 22.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 1. High 16.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 20.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 26.

3:28AM

As a wave of low pressure sent snow over the top of southeastern New England during the night, dry air pushing down from the north has prevented the snow from reaching the ground in much of the region except  parts of Cape Cod and the Islands. After a brief shot of ocean-effect snow showers over the Outer Cape, any snow activity will push out to sea early today, leaving the region dry and much colder. A low pressure area pivoting around the southern edge of the Polar Vortex will pass north of New England, dragging milder air in with it Saturday into early Sunday, but a strong arctic cold front will pass through during the day Sunday, initiating a temperature fall which will be underway in earnest during the Patriots/Ravens game on Sunday evening. This will lead to about 4 days of very cold weather as arctic air dominates the region. A storm threat being watched for Monday night and Tuesday is increasingly looking like it will materialize too far out to sea to bring significant snow, but a period of snow especially in southeastern areas is possible. This system will serve to bring down even stronger wind and more intense cold during the middle of the week. Despite some model forecasts of a quick warm-up late in the week I am reluctant to buy into this and believe, though we may moderate, that the pattern will remain chilly, and we may even need to eye a potential winter storm of some type during the January 25-27 time-frame. Plenty of time to watch for this possibility.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Snow over Cape Cod and the Islands with up to an inch or  2 accumulation. A few snow flakes in the air toward Plymouth County but no accumulation. Lows drop to the 10s north to 20s south. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Any morning clouds and lingering snow over Cape Cod pushing out to sea, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-20.  Wind NW to W 10-15 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 40s. Wind W to SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 30. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with a passing rain or snow shower morning through early afternoon. Slight chance of a heavier snow squall. Partly cloudy to sunny rest of day. Highs 40-45 in the morning, falling through the 30s in the afternoon. Wind SW 15-25 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW. Foxboro MA outlook for the AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and Ravens: Mostly clear, gusty NW wind, kick-off temperature in the upper 20s, end-of-game temperature in the lower 20s with wind chill closing in on zero at times.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Sunny. Low 6. High 21.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny with a chance of snow showers. Low 3. High 20.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 1. High 17.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 20.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 4. High 27.

2:26AM

We will be under the influence of the circulation around the Polar Vortex (PV) as a general rule for the next week plus. Although the PV is normally associated with very cold weather, it will not be continuously very cold here in southern New England, especially at the outset, as the PV will become elongated and send a strong westerly flow across New England, still grabbing pieces of milder air from the south and mixing them with intrusions of Arctic air from Canada. We will be in the milder air today, colder air Friday, milder air again Saturday into Sunday, and then plunge into much colder air by the tail end of the weekend into the first half of next week. At this time, it looks like the circulation of the PV will be strong enough to deflect most storm development out to sea. One such occurrence will be tonight, with another sometime early next week. In between these, another disturbance will pass north of the area on Sunday. It is this disturbance that will send an Arctic cold front through the region, introducing the coldest air of the season so far by the start of next week.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly to partly sunny – filtered sun in RI & southern MA and a few lower clouds moving down from the north into southern NH & northern MA during the afternoon. Slight chance of an isolated rain or snow shower NH & northern MA end of the afternoon. Highs around 40. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts possible.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. A period of snow Cape Cod and the Islands with up to 1 inch accumulation possible over the Islands and Outer Cape. Lows around 20. Wind shifting to N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly to partly cloudy southeastern MA into mid morning with any snow on the Outer Cape ending, otherwise partly cloudy too mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-20. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind WSW 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-25. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of a few passing snow showers. Highs around 40 by early afternoon then dropping to the 20s by late in the day. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH and gusty shifting to NW 15-25 MPH and gusty by late in the day.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 6. High 24.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 8. High 22.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers early. Low 1. High 19.

7:21PM

The messy midweek storm is about done with only lingering drizzle & rain over southeastern and eastern MA as well as RI and spotty mixed precipitation to the north and west, all set to wind down and end overnight. If you have slush and/or snow out there that has not been moved yet, it will be wise to have it moved tonight as it will freeze up overnight and even more-so tomorrow night as we see the a preview push of very cold air from an Arctic reservoir of air in Canada, otherwise known as the Polar Vortex. This will be dominating the weather pattern in the next week or so, with several shots of cold to very cold air. A milder interlude after Friday’s cold shot will take place Saturday into Sunday, but by later Sunday the first in a series of much colder shots of air will get here, just in time for the Patriots / Ravens NFL AFC Championship game at Foxboro!

In terms of snow threats, low pressure will be developing off the Mid Atlantic Coast and intensifying as it passes south of Cape Cod Thursday night through early Friday.  This looks like it will scrape Cape Cod with some accumulating snow but should largely be a miss for the majority of the region. Another storm offshore around next Tuesday looks like it will stay mainly out to sea at this time. Another threat looms later next week but is much too far away to really have any idea what may happen with that one.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TONIGHT: Overcast with areas of fog and a few periods of light snow & rain to start, then breaking clouds and eventual clearing west to east. Watch for the formation of icy spots on untreated surfaces. Lows 25-30. Wind light variable becoming W up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine mixed with clouds. An isolated rain or snow shower over northern MA and southern NH. Highs 37-42. Wind W around 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. A period of snow with up to 1-3 inches possible over Cape Cod and the Islands and perhaps far southern RI, and a little light snow with under 1 inch near the Cape Cod Canal, with nothing to the north. Lows 20-25. Wind variable becoming NE for a while in southeastern MA and RI up to 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 43.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 28. High 40 midday then falling.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 8. High 21.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Low 11. High 22.

WEDNESDAY: Clearing. Low 1. High 16.

7:49PM

A frontal boundary just southeast of New England will act as a running board for a wave of low pressure, which will move up and across extreme southeastern New England (center probably passing just south of Cape Cod) during Wednesday afternoon. This will send a shield of light to moderate precipitation across southeastern New England on Wednesday. Milder ocean air will become involved with this system especially since we are really not that deep into the cold air mass which is just trying to push into the region at this time.

Precipitation time-table and type: Expect the edge of the precipitation to be moving across the region from southwest to northeast during the overnight hours (midnight to 6AM). Snow will break out in most areas except mixed rain and snow over Cape Cod and the Islands. During the morning hours up through noon or shortly after will be when the steadiest precipitation occurs. This will be in the form of mix to mainly rain Cape Cod and Islands into southern RI and the South Shore of MA, but as you move inland mix will become snow and it may stay all snow or at least mostly snow mainly north of the Mass Pike and from just west of I-95 west and north. Enough mild air may finally reach into some of these areas during the afternoon for it to become too warm for snow, but by then the vast majority of the precipitation will have fallen and there will be only spotty mix/mist left. All precipitation will be over by early evening.

Snow Accumulation: Nothing over Cape Cod and the Islands, slushy coatings at most then melting in coastal RI and the MA South Shore, building rapidly up to 2-6 inches elsewhere with the highest amounts in the highest elevations of north central MA.

Beyond the Wednesday event…

Cold front slices through the region Thursday with nothing more than a rain or snow shower, but introduces a short-lived shot of cold air for Friday (a hint of things to come). Moderating temperatures Saturday into Sunday as the Polar Vortex wobbles about and pulls back slightly, allowing surface low pressure to cut northwest of New England. This low will drag an arctic cold front across New England Sunday, which may be accompanied by a few snow showers/squalls. This will introduce what is expected to be the first in a series of very cold blasts of air, the first arriving Sunday night (during the Patriots/Ravens game) through Monday (MLK Jr. Day). More of these will follow next week as a very cold pattern settles in.

Storminess next week? It remains to be seen how things will work out, but this looks like a largely cold/dry pattern coming. However, with pieces of energy rotating around a wobbly Polar Vortex, we cannot rule out a few threats of snow (watching Tuesday & Friday of next week as potential threat days, of course timing subject to change).

Reeling things back in, details for the next 7 days for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Clouds thicken. Snow/mix/rain (details above) developing southwest to northeast from around midnight to dawn. Lows from the upper 20s south central NH to lower 30s most other areas, some middle 30s Cape Cod. Wind near calm.

WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Snow north and west, mix/rain southeast (details above), steadiest in the morning, with a slight shift northwestward of the rain/snow line before precipitation tapers in the afternoon. For accumulations, see details above. Highs from around 32 north and west of Boston to the lower 40s Cape Cod and the Islands. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Clearing west to east before midnight then some clouds returning after midnight. Lows in the 20s to around 30, mildest Cape Cod. Wind shifting to W up to 10 MPH. Watch for icy spots on untreated surfaces!

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of passing rain or snow showers. Highs around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW by late day.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 10. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill around zero at times.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 17. High 40.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 20. High 38 then falling late.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 20.

7:04PM

60 degrees was reached in many areas Monday afternoon as the sun came out. This was 5 to 10 degrees warmer than I had anticipated for the region. Well, that’s gone. As discussed on the last entry, we are in the process of changing the pattern, but it is going to take all week. There are a couple change to the previous forecast coming up, otherwise the overall idea is largely unchanged.

The frontal boundary sitting near the coast Tuesday-Wednesday will ripple just a bit further northward than I thought previously. The first wave of low pressure will stay mostly offshore through early Tuesday but will be close enough to throw a period of rain and some sleet across RI and southeastern MA. The second, however, will come closer and throw its precipitation shield over southeastern New England Wednesday. This will be good for some accumulating snow, especially away from the immediate coast. It will not be a big storm, but it may have some impacts on travel. Milder air near the ocean should keep this system as mix to rain with no accumulation in these locations.

The cold front that I expected to come through without precipitation on Thursday may in fact carry some rain and snow showers with it. The cold shot for Thursday night and Friday is still on track. A slight temperature recovery over the weekend is still expected to be followed by the first in a series of Arctic blasts by the start of next week.

Updated forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a period of rain and some mixed sleet/rain over southeastern MA and RI. Lows in the 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny – least sun Cape Cod, most sun north central MA/southern NH. Highs around 40. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouding over. Lows around 30. Wind light NE.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy through mid afternoon with a period of snow, except mix/rain immediate coast, southeastern MA, and southern RI. Snow accumulation of nothing to a coating near the coast to 1-3 inches from the I-95 Belt north and west, highest amounts in the higher elevations. Breaking clouds west to east late. Highs in the 30s to around 40, mildest immediate coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow and rain showers. Low 26. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 16. High 31.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 13. High 38.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 19. High 38.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 23.

5:21PM

Today I’m going to do something a little different and go a little further than normal. Almost like TV Guide occasionally puts out 2 weeks of listings, I’m going to talk about the upcoming 2 weeks of weather, or how I think they are going to unfold. A detailed forecast will be provided only for the first week, as going into the 2nd week would be simply foolish to attempt, but we will discuss the pattern.

Week 1 (January 14-20): This week will feature a dip in temperature as a colder pattern begins to be slowly introduced, like dipping your toes into the chilly ocean before getting the courage to dive fully in. This will take place with the passage of 3 cold fronts. The first of these fronts will come through on Monday and will be the one pushing the murky air of the weekend out of here. The irony is, in the few hours before this front gets here, the mild air that could have dominated the weekend will finally have made it into southern New England fully, and the high temperature for the day will likely top 50 in most locations before starting to drop off. As this front slows offshore thanks to a the jet stream still flowing southwest-to-northeast over the area, a couple waves of low pressure will form and move northeastward along it. With cooler air coming into play, I cannot rule out the risk of a period or two of snow or mixed precipitation near the New England South Coast between Tuesday and Wednesday. It does not look like a major deal, and I don’t expect it to creep northward toward Boston but will keep an eye on it, just in case. The second in the series of cold fronts will arrive sometime Thursday and will do so with no precipitation, just some clouds. If anything did happen, it would be an isolated snow shower. Leaving this out of the detailed forecast for now. A sliver of high pressure will move in for Friday and Saturday before a third cold front moves through Sunday, getting us one step closer to some more serious cold air to cold. Can’t rule out a snow shower/squall with the 3rd front but it’s too far away to worry about any details with this. The reason we’re seeing just a slow change to colder with a series of fronts is because the Polar Vortex (a strong upper level low pressure area associated with very cold air often located north of the Arctic Circle) is making a push southeastward into eastern Canada, but will wobble around irregularly and elongate. The southern edge of this Polar Vortex (PV), instead of driving into the US Northeast, will flatten out into a bowl-like shape. This will keep the core of the coldest air just to the north of New England (though northern Maine would likely get into it) through this week. We will just see small pieces of colder air coming southward behind each cold front.

Skip to beyond the detailed forecast for week 1 for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH for a discussion of week 2…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of drizzle then a chance of rain showers. Temperatures holding in the 40s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated to scattered rain showers during the morning. Clearing west to east midday through afternoon. Highs 50-55 in the morning. Temperatures falling into the 40s in the afternoon. Wind SW 5-15 MPH gusting around 20 MPH in the morning, shifting to NW 10-20 MPH gusting around 30 MPH in the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clouds return from southwest to northeast, thickest over RI and southeastern MA. Lows 25-30 except some lower 20s in sheltered inland areas far northwest of  Boston. Wind NW diminishing to 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny overall with most sun northwest and least sun southeast. Slight chance of a period of light snow/mix near the South Coast. Highs around 40. Wind NW to N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Brief mix far southeast? Low 25. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Snow shower at night? Low 15. High 39.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Snow shower/squall? Low 19. High 36.

Week 2 (January 21-27): Using the ECMWF (or European) model for guidance, believing that it has a better handle on the pattern than the less-stable GFS (American model), and a little bit of non-model meteorology, I am becoming increasingly confident that we will be diving into a cold pattern, seeing between 1 and 3 pushes of pure arctic air during this week. The timing and number of pushes or reinforcements will depend on development and movement of small disturbances coming around the base of the trough, or the southern end of the Polar Vortex, which appears that it will take up residence near or just east of Hudson Bay Canada and extend southward into the Great Lakes and Northeast. This is a very cold pattern for this area. The center of this vortex tends to wobble around when it is this far to the south, but the general position may be held in place for a while due to high pressure ridging solidly in place to its north and east, and also over western North America. So in summary, it is with a reasonable amount of confidence that I expect a very cold week with a few potential and most likely light snow or snow shower events, but largely dry weather. How big a story will the cold become? Time will tell.

9:41AM

The weather is in a lazy mood. Not just this weekend’s weather, but the overall pattern impacting southern New England. What potentially could have been a windy and record warm weekend with sun and clouds will instead be a mainly overcast, foggy, and at times drizzly weekend (though Sunday will still improve a little over today), as we bring the warmest air up over some stubborn cooler marine air stuck near the ground. Again, the worst of that will be today as we will finally start to break out of it during the day Sunday, but just in time for the arrival of a cold front from the west.

How will the cold front, which will mark the start of a new weather pattern, be lazy? Well, the front will barely get itself by us before running out of steam offshore. The jet stream is not helping, as it will be slow to change its configuration as an area of low pressure in the upper levels coming out of Canada will be pushing against a strong high pressure ridge holding on over the western Atlantic. So the front will have to wait for reinforcing pushes later in the week, and even this will get done somewhat lazily as the polar vortex (or strong low pressure area in the upper levels with lots of cold air reflected at the surface) never really makes a hard push southeastward into the USA but rather elongates across southeastern Canada. When this happens, the coldest air doesn’t come in as hard as it may under another pattern. So yes, it is going to get colder, perhaps very cold at times, but the coming cold snap which has been prematurely (in my opinion) advertised as a possible record arctic outbreak, will probably not turn out to be all too memorable when we look back on it.

A memorable Arctic outbreak will be remembered as one that set numerous record low temperatures, and record low-high temperatures, during its run. Such an outbreak occurred in 2 shots in January 1982 (“The Ten Days That Rewrote The Weather Record Books”), with another memorable one in January 1994. I’m not so sure what is coming up, at least initially, will fall into the same category that these events did. If things come together just right, down the road a bit at the end of January or sometime in February, we may be talking about something more substantial in terms of cold. Big snow, in my opinion, is now going to be even harder to come by, since it seems like the PNA/NAO do not want to work together to set things up just right. It’ll be like trying to roll dice several times and only see a major snowstorm if you roll a double-six. Welcome to Weather Vegas!

It will be interesting to see how this all works itself out in the atmosphere in the coming days and weeks. One thing that has been sure, other than the bump in the road slightly wetter than normal December, we remain in an overall dry pattern and regardless of whether you love or hate snow and cold, we may be setting up for some drought issues down the road if we enter Spring/Summer in the same dry regime we are in now.

In the much shorter term, we also have to look out for some coastal flooding issues at high tide times midday and late tonight due to astronomically very high tides. Thankfully, no major storm condition exists with onshore winds or we’d be seeing more serious problems. Minor flooding is indeed possible along the East Coast from Plymouth County northward.

The updated forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Overcast. Areas of fog and drizzle. Highs in the 40s. Wind light variable.

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle. Lows around 40. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle still possible in the morning. Breaks of sun possible in the afternoon. Highs push into the 50s. Wind light and variable eventually becoming SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Low 40. High 49.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Snow showers possible. Low 25. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 20. High 35.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 16. High 32.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 10. High 29.

10:55PM

And so begins a week-long pattern transition, much of it without a whole lot of sunshine.  The mild stretch of weather will be coming to an end but that will take time. We’ll go through some unsettled weather to get from it to the onset of another stretch of cold weather.

A low pressure area will pass west of New England late Friday with a warm front moving into the region. This front will slow down and briefly stall for a while on Saturday with a little wave of low pressure along it. Some wet weather will move in late Friday and linger to early Saturday. The clouds will dominate the weekend, even when the warm air finally moves in full force on Sunday.

A transition to colder weather will take place during the Monday-Wednesday period, which will be unsettled, as a series of cold fronts moves through the region slowly, along with waves of low pressure moving up along it. Most of the precipitation will likely fall is rain but some mix/snow may also occur, depending on the regional temperature profile.

By late in the week, mainly dry and much colder weather will be in control as the jet stream finally shifts enough to let some very cold air out of Canada and into New England.

Detailed forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows from the lower 20s inland valleys to lower 30s coast. Wind W shifting to N under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 38-43. Wind NE up to 10 MPH shifting to SE late.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of light rain, but freezing rain pockets are possible over portions of northwestern Middlesex County MA and south central NH early. Areas of fog developing. Lows 32-37. Wind SE to E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy. Areas of fog  and a chance of drizzle especially in the morning. Highs from near 40 Merrimack Valley near the MA/NH border to near 50 in southern MA and RI. Wind up to 10 MPH from the E in southern NH and northeastern MA and from the SE to S elsewhere.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 50-55. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 50.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain or mix. Low 33. High 43.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers. Low 30. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Low 20. High 33.

3:50PM
Forecast update for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH (discussion and full forecast later)…

THIS AFTERNOON: Sunny. Highs 43-48. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 24-29 except 30-35 coast and urban areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH diminishing and shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 40-45. Wind NE up to 10 MPH shifting to SE.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM drizzle. Low 35. High 45.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Late day rain shower. Low 35. High 53.

12:48AM

You may be hearing about a record blast of Arctic air on the way for early next week from some outlets, but this simply will not be the case for southern New England. The pattern we are in is mild, and although there is some very cold air coming over the pole from Siberia into Canada, there will be no way to deliver it in force into this region for at least 9 days. The infamous “Southeast Ridge” is the main foe of this, putting up a road block to the cold air. This will continue to be the case probably into if not through the middle of next week. There are some signs that true cold finally arrives late next week, but that being so far out in time, we’ll just leave it at that for now and continue to monitor. So, for the more immediate future, i.e., the next several days, we’ll remain in a fairly mild pattern, along with continue below normal precipitation. Minor bouts of mainly rain are possible later Friday to early Saturday and again early next week as disturbances track west and north of New England. In the even shorter term, one such disturbance will move rapidly eastward, passing north of the area later today and tonight, but this system will only serve to increase the wind, bring a few clouds, and slightly cooler weather for Thursday.

Forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 44-49. Wind WSW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 29-34. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-44. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of light rain late day and night. Low 33. High 44.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 34. High 45.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 53.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 50.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 44.

7:16AM

A mainly dry and mild stretch of weather is underway and will be interrupted only a brief spell of wet weather later this week. A mild west to southwest flow will dominate through Wednesday ahead of a weak cold front that will shift winds and bring slightly cooler air in for Thursday. A weakening area of low pressure will pass through on Friday with some rain. As some very cold air that will finally be building in Canada starts to make an attempt to move southward into the north central USA, a push of even warmer air will ride up the East Coast and arrive in New England during the weekend. Here, it will probably be accompanied by a lot of cloudiness.

Detailed forecast for eastern MA, RI, and southern NH…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 41-46. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 22-27 except 28-33  coast and urban centers. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 42-47. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 27-32. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 39-44. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 32. High 43.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 47.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 37. High 53.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 50.

8:41PM

The battle continues between the cold air that has been dominating Siberia and Asia, finally getting into Canada and coming down this way in small bits, and the stubborn ridge of high pressure that wants to rebuild itself off the East Coast of the US again this week. Though it will struggle a couple times, eventually it looks like the ridge wins the week, putting the brakes on an advertised switch back to more persistent below normal temperatures as we saw back in November. It’s almost likely waiting for gas prices to fall. When is it gonna happen? Is it EVER gonna happen? Well basic meteorology says that a switch to cold is not all that far off, but a little further investigation indicates we may have to wait until later in the month to see it start to consistently feel like January. We’ll wait and watch as the atmosphere tries to figure itself out over the next few weeks. In the mean time, read below for an updated discussion of weather systems and a forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

A cold front dropping down from the north is causing a few snow showers around the region this evening and these will continue into the early morning hours of Monday. Brief coatings of new snow may occur, especially in southeastern NH and northeastern MA. Any of this hanging near the shoreline of eastern MA and NH Monday morning will depart and the day will be ruled by fair and chilly weather along with a gusty breeze. Moderating temperatures will get underway Tuesday and last through Wednesday as a low pressure area passes well north of New England. Another cold front will drop through later Wednesday without much fanfare, and only return slightly cooler air to the region on Thursday. A disturbance and warm front will pass through on Friday when there may be some patchy light rain, but this will set us up for a warmer southerly flow over the weekend with lots of clouds but temperatures climbing to much above normal levels.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers, especially southeastern NH and northeastern MA where brief coatings of snow may occur. Lows 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy near the eastern coastal areas in the morning otherwise becoming mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 20-25, some upper 10s inland valleys. Wind WNW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 45.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain. Low 35. High 45.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 38. High 48.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 56.

12:36PM

A quick summary of weather events coming up…

High pressure in control this afternoon, bright but with a chilly gusty wind.

Disturbance passing through from west to east Sunday, bringing lots of clouds but will it bring any light snow? For now I’m leaning away from the daytime event and looking for a few snow showers at night as a cold front plows through the region from north to south.

Monday will be a windy and cold day with sun returning.

The well advertised moderating trend for next week will be a modest one, getting underway Tuesday and lasting through Thursday with fair weather.

Friday will mark the start of another transition in the pattern, back toward what will eventually be another period of colder and mostly dry weather, but mild air meeting moisture from the southwest that day probably means some wet weather.

Updated forecast for RI, eastern MA, and southern NH…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny. Highs 38-43. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 30-35. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 22-27. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy with isolated snow showers in the morning,. Sunny afternoon. Highs 30-35. Wind NW to N 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 25. High 45.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 40.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain. Low 37. High 44.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 32. High 42.

7:19AM

The shot of very cold air is over and more “normal” cold will be dominant during the next few days across southern New England. Weak disturbances will produce clouds at times, especially today and again Sunday, with Sunday’s disturbance also carrying a chance of some light snow early in the day.

Looking into next week, after a chilly beginning, a warm-up should commence and peak at midweek.

Eastern MA, southern NH, and RI forecast…

TODAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 33-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting over 25 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 20-25. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 32-37. Wind W 15-25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 20-25. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few periods of light snow especially in the morning. Highs 32-37. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 24. High 37.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 34.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 19. High 39.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 44.