5:14PM

The first week of April 2013 will be a week of changing weather. It starts with low pressure lifting away to the northeast for April Fool’s Day, but it’s no joke that it will be a mild day. However it does carry a shower and thunderstorm threat as a secondary cold front approaches (the first having gone through pre-dawn ending a good slug of rain tonight). This front, when it passes, will deliver a late-season shot of cold air for Tuesday & Wednesday, followed by milder weather Thursday as high pressure that first builds in from Canada sinks to the south and a westerly wind develops. But another cold front will deliver some chilly air for Friday and a wave of low pressure passing south of New England Friday night and early Saturday will bring the chance of precipitation (rain and snow, with the snow depending on timing and intensity of precipitation). Things move along though, and the majority of next weekend should turn out ok with a chilly start and warmer finish.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 40-45. Wind S 10-20 MPH gusting 20-30 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of passing showers and possibly a thunderstorm, especially in the afternoon. Highs 50-55 south-facing shores, 56-61 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH gusting 20-30 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 25-30 except 30-35 urban centers and immediate coast. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 40-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 25. High 45.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 32. High 55.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain/snow at night. Low 35. High 48.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain/snow showers early. Low 33. High 46.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 64.

8:27PM

Even with an overall cooler than normal pattern, we’re now in the time of year where you can feel it in the air. You can tell we’re climbing fast, climate-wise, out of the winter pit. The next few days will hold even more of this, as it is somewhat milder, despite the passage of a storm system Sunday night. There is a significant shot of chilly air waiting in the wings next week, but for now with a slightly faster and flatter jet stream flow, I’m looking at things being on the dry side, absent of late-season snow threats, for most of next week.

For those celebrating Easter this Sunday, expect a mostly clear and chilly start for sunrise services, sun giving way to clouds during the course of the day but turning milder (well into the 50s except where a southerly wind comes off the water where it will be cooler), and rain holding off until the very end of the day or at night, arriving from west to east.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH, diminishing late.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 25-30 inland, 30-35 coast. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Rain arrives south and west of Boston by late day. Highs 54-59 except 48-53 south-facing coastal areas. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Clouds depart early and return late, with plenty of sun in between. Showers/thunderstorms possible evening and early at night west fading to showers east. Low 48. High 60.

TUESDAY: Slow clearing. Low 33. High 48.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 46.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 49.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 46.

8:53PM

The big spinny low is losing its grip but will hold on enough through Saturday to still produce some clouds and at least a slight shower threat.

Easter Sunday will start glorious, and end wet as a storm system approaches from the west. As this system clears the region by Monday, some mild air will be a nice Spring treat, but by the middle of next week another chilly pattern will be established.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated afternoon rain showers. Highs around 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated midday rain showers. Highs around 50. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain by late day. Low 32. High 55.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 44. High 60.

TUESDAY: Slow clearing. Low 30. High 44.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 43.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 27. High 44.

5:32PM

The next 7 days will be a good example of the volatile nature of Spring time in New England. Not in an extreme way, but rather a tutorial courtesy of mother nature.

We start out with a continuation of a broad low pressure circulation east of New England, sending lobes of energy/moisture southwestward to southward across the region. One such lobe is moving down from northern New England now and ahead of it some instability allowed a lot of pop up cumulus clouds during Wednesday afternoon, some producing light rain showers. As this energy from the north northeast comes across tonight into Thursday, it will set off rain and snow showers, with some minor snow accumulation possible on unpaved surfaces in the pre-dawn hours of Thursday. By late Thursday, this area will be moving away, but another one will come down on Friday afternoon and evening with another threat of some showers (mostly rain this time as some milder maritime air will be involved). Lingering instability will allow for some more pop up clouds and maybe a sprinkle on Saturday, but overall it looks like the balance of the weekend including Easter Sunday (for those celebrating) will be on the nice side. However, but the afternoon of Sunday, clouds will be racing in ahead of the next disturbance as things will be moving again in the atmosphere with the big low to the east out of the way. Rain associated with this may arrive by Sunday evening from the west and be gone by Monday morning (still working on exact timing). If this faster timing is true, Monday, which is the first day of April, may turn out to be a very mild day. That won’t last, however, as a secondary modified arctic cold front will come through late in the day or at night, setting off rain showers and even the chance of the first thunderstorm of the season. Behind that comes a blast of very late season arctic air. No it doesn’t mean we’ll see mid winter temperatures. What it means is that temperatures will be significantly below normal Tuesday into the middle of next week. Will there be a snow threat? Maybe. Too early to know. But can’t rule it out.

Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…

THROUGH SUNSET: Variably cloudy. Isolated to scattered rain showers mainly south and west of Boston ending. Temperatures in the 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers develop north to south and change to snow showers, with minor accumulations possible on unpaved surfaces in the pre-dawn hours.  Lows 30-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers in the morning possibly ending as rain showers. Highs 42-47. Wind N 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows upper 20s to middle 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Chance of rain showers late day and evening. Highs 44-49. Wind NW 10-15 MPH shifting to N.

SATURDAY: Sun & clouds. Isolated rain showers. Low 33. High 48.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Clouding up afternoon. Late-day or night rain west to east. Low 32. High 53.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms late day or evening. Low 44. High 61.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of PM mix/snow. Low 34. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 28. High 42.

10:44PM

A storm still spins offshore. A parcel of drier air came in Tuesday, but another spoke of moisture will rotate southward later Wednesday into Thursday with more clouds and a risk of rain/snow showers. The storm finally drifts away and high pressure nudges eastward for the end of the week. This won’t last though. Already there are signs of a new trough and blast of chilly air from Canada next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows middle 20s inland valleys to lower 30s coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sun dominates the morning. Clouds arrive in the afternoon north to south. Highs around 50. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow showers. Lows in the 30s. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Clouds dominate the morning. Increasing sun north to south afternoon. Highs upper 40s. Wind N 10-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 32. High 47.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 33. High 48.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 53.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 40. High 56.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 26. High 38.

2:32AM

The air will feel milder at times this week even though temperatures will still be running generally below normal. Some episodes of late March sunshine will make it feel less cool. There will also be one more throwback area of clouds and a few rain/snow showers later Wednesday through Thursday from a large storm circulation offshore to the east. This finally drifts away to the east and high pressure ridging nudges eastward later in the week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Variably cloudy. Few snow showers especially southeastern MA. Lows 30-35. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows around 30. Wind NNW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly to partly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/snow showers. Low 30. High 44.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 48.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 49.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 33. High 52.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 38. High 49.

8:43PM

This week, which is Passover and Holy Week for those celebrating either, will see a continuation of the cool pattern that has characterized much of the month of March. For southern New England, it starts out with a sideswiping by the northern edge of a large storm exiting the US East Coast. This storm brought severe weather to parts of the Southeast and ice/snow to parts of the Mid Atlantic, but will only graze far southern New England with a little bit of mix/snow later Monday before heading out to sea. The balance of the week will be dominated by low pressure to the east and high pressure to the west with just a few disturbances rotating through with periods of clouds and minimal precipitation threats.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 30-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Late day light mix South Coast of MA & RI. Highs 40-45. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Light mix to snow pushing northward to around the Mass Pike and southward with just a few flakes of snow possible to the north of there. Little snow accumulation most areas but 1-2 inches possible over southern RI through Cape Cod MA. Lows around 30. Wind NE 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Sun & passing clouds. Highs 42-47. Wind N 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 30-35. Wind NW 10-15 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 43-48. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of passing rain or snow showers. Low 31. High 42.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 32. High 46.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 33. High 47.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 34. High 48.

7:33PM

Chilly & dry is the overall pattern. The late March sun will make the air feel milder at times (Sunday and mid to late next week) But there is one storm threat, Monday. Right now I still think it will slide JUST underneath southern New England on its way to sea, but may very well be close enough to spread some light precipitation into the southern half of the forecast area, some of which would be snow. Keeping an eye on this for late changes.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early. Clear overnight. Lows middle 20s to near 30. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty, dropping off later.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs middle to upper 40s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows around 30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/snow south of the Mass Pike and especially near the South Coast. Highs around 40. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially coastal areas.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 44.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 29. High 45.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 46.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 31. High 47.

11:39PM

What is a lock is the cold pattern. That’s not going anywhere, right into April.

What is becoming more certain is a drier than normal pattern becoming established, but this does not leave us in the clear of snow threats either. As many of you know, anywhere from 1 to 6 inches of snow fell over southeastern MA Thursday afternoon & evening, courtesy of an inverted trough. The next threat in the pipeline is a large storm moving eastward off the Mid Atlantic Coast about Monday. Most signs point to it being just too far south for significant impact on southern New England but it needs to be watched…

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Lingering snow showers southeastern MA and Cape Cod, ending by dawn. Breaking clouds. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 28. High 41.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 27. High 42.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 43.

1:56AM

The chilly March pattern will continue for the foreseeable future. High pressure will often be in a position ridged from central Canada southward through the eastern US, supply plenty of cold air from the snow-covered regions in Canada and the Arctic. In addition, a storm track south of the region will continue to bring some snow threats, though it remains to be seen how many will materialize during the coming week or so. The first of these develops today and lingers through early Friday in the form of an inverted trough reaching back from a developing ocean storm. It looks like most of the snow will fall over far southeastern Massachusetts with mostly insignificant amounts up as far north as Boston. The next threat will be from a large storm moving east northeastward to the south of New England late Sunday through Monday. It still looks like this system will be too far south to have direct impact, but needs to be watched.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Clouds increase. Snow showers develop eastern MA during the afternoon. Highs middle 30s to around 40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of snow showers, favoring coastal areas especially southeastern MA. Snow accumulation up to a coating along the I-95 belt to 1-3 inches over Cape Cod – localized 4 inch amounts are possible. Lows 25-30. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start southeastern areas otherwise partly to mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 23. High 42.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 44.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 33. High 41.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 42.

10:10PM

The title is a phrase I have said, and still say, during snowy patterns in the late winter / early Spring. It seems like when we get into these patterns here in southern New England that it just finds any way it can to snow, and snow more than it “should”, at least in a good part of the region. It’s been doing that this evening and continues to do so as I write this update. Snow showers have been breaking out and moving west to east across the area. This is being triggered by an upper level disturbance that is still moving through. And it’s not going to be long before we are talking about a snow threat again, like how about right now? After this gets out of here we will see a chilly, gusty day on Wednesday with sun and clouds, and only a few isolated snow showers which should stack in the hills and mountains to the west and north, though one or two may find their way into this area. Elongated upper level low pressure will be in place over the northeastern US through the end of the week, and a connection between it and an intensifying storm at sea on Thursday will result in an inverted trough (haven’t we heard this a few times?) over the region. This will trigger another snow threat. Accumulating snow is possible, especially in eastern areas, and the greatest threat seems to exist for Cape Cod this time. A few to several inches of snow cannot be ruled out. As always, inverted troughs are hard to forecast and there is a chance that not too much comes of this threat.

The colder than normal pattern will continue and the next storm threat comes at the end of the weekend or the start of next week, but right now there is a pretty fair chance that this particular storm system will evolve too far south to directly impact this area. Nevertheless, it needs to be watched.

Updated forecast for southern NH, eastern MA, and RI…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with snow showers, accumulating up to an additional inch, finally tapering off overnight. Lows in the 20s. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH

WEDNESDAY: Sun & clouds, isolated snow showers. Highs 35-40. Wind W 15-30 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-25. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow especially near the eastern coastal areas and across Cape Cod in the afternoon and night with some accumulation possible. Highs in the 30s. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 23. High 38.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 44.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 24. High 42.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 30. High 42.

5:53PM

Here comes the next winter storm, and this one will have a one-two punch with it for much of the area, though some areas south of Boston may not see much from the second punch. This will take place as low pressure west of New England redevelops over New Jersey, moves northeastward, then intensifies rather rapidly just as it passes Cape Cod and moves into the waters just east of southern New England through Tuesday evening. The solution I am going with is slightly colder than what I had on the last update, which will be reflected by less mix/change in areas north of the Mass Pike, where cold air is entrenched at all levels and will be made even a bit colder due to precipitation falling into dry air and resulting in evaporational cooling. Precipitation starts as snow everywhere late this evening, at least by or shortly after midnight it should be snowing in all locations and snowing moderately to occasionally heavy during the overnight hours into the morning commute. Toward the end of this first burst of heavier precipitation a mix/change line to sleet/freezing rain/rain will appear on the South Coast and progress northward toward the Mass Pike where it should come to a halt. As the first area of heavier precipitation departs during the morning, some mixing may occur further north. As a second area of moderate to possibly heavy precipitation moves in later in the day into the evening, it will fall as snow in areas north of the Mass Pike and rain to mix to snow elsewhere as the changeover line goes back to the southeast. This will result in some additional accumulation of snow.

Snow will accumulate most rapidly in all areas during the early morning hours of Tuesday, more slowly to not at all during the late morning to mid afternoon of Tuesday because of lighter precip, mix, or rain in some areas (south). Another period of accumulating snow late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night will be most likely along and north of the Mass Pike to start then include most other areas again for a while later (although it may be heaviest to the north so impact may be less to the south).

Unfortunately, the 2 heaviest periods of snow may be occurring during both commutes. But better news: no significant coastal flooding as winds will not be as strong as recent storms, nor are astronomical tides very high. There may be some minor splashover and beach erosion on east-facing shores at high tide times just before dawn and in the early evening on Tuesday.

Snow accumulations for the entire event: 1-3 inches Cape Cod, Islands, South Coast. 3-5 inches southeastern MA to central RI, 5-10 inches northern RI through the remainder of eastern MA out to about I-495 and up to the NH Sea Coast. 10+ inches north of I-495 including the remainder of southern NH.

Beyond this event, the cold and somewhat unsettled pattern continues. We’ll watch for an ocean storm that may graze the region Thursday night but it has to be watched in case it develops a little closer than currently expected. Another storm later in the weekend is expected to stay JUST far enough south not to have any significant impact but should also be watched should it end up a little closer.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Overcast. Snow develops southwest to northeast between 9PM and 1AM, becoming moderate to heavy at times overnight, mixing with sleet/ice/rain South Coast after 4AM. Lows middle 20s to lower 30s north to south. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow except mix to rain line moving northward toward the Mass Pike morning-midday, then all precipitation getting lighter for a while into the afternoon before picking up again later in the day as snow north and mix changing to snow further south. Highs upper 20s southern NH to middle 30s South Coast of MA/RI. Wind E 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-45 MPH at times coast, shifting more to the NE with time.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy through midnight with snow except mix to snow southern areas, tapering off late, followed by breaking clouds. Lows in the 20s. Wind NE to N 10-25 MPH with higher gusts.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of light snow showers. Highs in the 30s. Wind NW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Period of snow possible at night especially eastern areas. Low 28. High 38.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 27. High 39.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 24. High 40.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Watching storm to the south. Low 24. High 40.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 22. High 38.

12:51AM

The feel of winter has become established as we head through the final days of the season and toward the start of Spring (Vernal Equinox at 7:02AM Wednesday March 20). The winter feel will continue during this week, making it nothing like the corresponding week last year, when high temperatures were in the 70s to lower 80s every day March 18-23. This time we’ll be dealing with high temperatures mostly in the 30s to lower 40s. Another example of how variable the weather can be.

The big story of the week upcoming will be the winter storm that will impact the region Monday night through Tuesday evening. A combination of precipitation can be expected, including some significant accumulation of snow and sleet. Thankfully, coastal flooding will be limited due to the configuration of the low pressure system and astronomically lower tides.

The winter storm is expected to evolve this way: Low pressure travels northeastward into the Great Lakes and transfers energy to a new low pressure area developing near or just off the New Jersey  Coast Monday night and Tuesday, with this new low strengthening rapidly as it passes over southeastern New England and into the waters just east of  Boston by Tuesday night. With late-season cold and dry arctic air over the region, which will be tough to dislodge, especially near the surface, expect the precipitation to start later Monday night as snow pretty much everywhere. As warm air works in from south to north above, a changeover to sleet and rain will evolve first in southern areas then pushing northward. Though the exact positioning of a rain/sleet/snow line is still not certain, it appears that the earliest change to sleet and mostly rain will take place along the South Coast including Cape Cod. A more prolonged period of sleet and freezing rain will take place from Boston north and west, with snow being dominant in areas mostly along and outside I-495 and most especially in higher elevations. Sleet may become dominant in the areas just south and southwest of Boston. Some icing (freezing rain) may also be an issue where the layer of colder air trapped near the ground is not as thick as it is where sleet falls. Again, this mix/change zone will be very tough to pin down until pretty much during the event, so it is most wise for everybody to expect at least some mixing unless you are located far northwest of the city. The ultimate behavior of this mix/change area will have significant impact on snow/sleet amounts. Another wild card to snow amounts is the possibility of a snow burst on the back side of the departing storm later Tuesday. Will watch this closely as well.

After this latest mess exits, the remainder of the week ahead will be on the chilly side, less stormy, but still somewhat unsettled as an upper level low pressure area hangs around. We do have to watch for a disturbance traveling around this trough that may possibly bring one more period of mix/snow Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Sunny start…cloudy finish. Highs struggle to near 40. Wind E-SE 5-10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Overcast thickens. Snow develops by late evening well south and southwest of Boston then spreads to the north and east overnight with up to a few inches by daybreak. Lows upper 20s to around 30. Wind SE-E 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Overcast. Precipitation, moderate to heavy at times especially in the morning, transitioning from snow to sleet/ice/rain over RI and southeastern & coastal MA and mixing with sleet further inland, probably tapering off somewhat in the afternoon, but another burst of mix to snow is possible evening especially Boston area northward (uncertainty here, please check later updates). Expected total snow/sleet accumulation up to 3 inches South Coast RI/MA including Cape Cod & South Shore MA, 3-6 inches elsewhere except over 6 inches generally around I-495 and north of the Mass Pike northward. These amounts subject to change pending positioning of the mix/change line and the occurrence of the late-storm snow burst. Highs from 30 far NW to lower 40s Cape Cod. Wind E trending to N 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, especially coast, but may be variable for a time over the South Coast.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated light rain/snow showers afternoon, a period of mix/snow possible at night. Low 27. High 40.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Mix/snow possible early. Low 29. High 40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 28. High 39.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 38.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 29. High 40.

10:48AM

The old folklore quote used for the title is meant to apply to the middle of winter, the climatological peak of the cold days coming in January, after the shortest day of the year and in the weeks when the sunlight time is increasing. It was not intended to represent the weather in mid to late March, but we may find that it applies this particular year, because we are now in and will remain in a cold pattern for some time to come. And this cold will not be without additional winter storm threats, especially one coming up early in the week. Though by practice I don’t get too details about storms outside of 48 hours before onset, I will say that reliable guidance and my own meteorological thinking has me concerned about the impact of this event, which will almost certainly feature some front-end accumulating snow, may possibly deliver some icing to parts of the region mid storm, and may end with a burst of significant snow (the duration, location, and timing of which will be critical). More details to come on this potential winter storm.

In the mean time, a wave of low pressure passing south of southern New England will throw some clouds across the region during the day today but its precipitation will stay south of the region, possibly just skirting the South Coast with a touch of light snow. High pressure will move in for a bright but cold St. Patrick’s Day on Sunday, lingering into Monday just ahead of the advancing storm.

Behind whatever that storm brings us, the middle to end of next week look on the cold side with limited sun and a threat of some minor precipitation events.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of a little light snow along the South Coast with no accumulation. Highs around 40. Wind NW 5-15 MPH becoming light variable later.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows upper 10s to middle 20s. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Snow/mix developing at night. Low 19. High 38.

TUESDAY: Storm of rain/ice/snow (details to come but may be significant). Low 29. High 35.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 22. High 40.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 25. High 38.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 24. High 38.

1:15AM

The cold will be here for some time, as least in terms of March normals. That part is established. It will be mainly dry through the weekend into the very early part of next week. Only a light chance of light precipitation occurs with the passage of a weak disturbance late Friday while another low pressure area goes just south of New England on Saturday bringing nothing but the chance of a few light snow showers, largely a miss. A stronger low center will cruise into the Great Lakes early next week and redevelop near southern New England. With cold air locked in place, we’ll have to pay close attention to this system as it moves through the region Monday night into Tuesday. Though it’s still too early for details, there is certainly some threat of wintry precipitation with this system. After its passage, it looks like a chilly and drier pattern will resume.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows around 20 but ranging to the upper 20s to 30 urban centers and Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of a few light snow showers. Lows 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 35-40. Wind W to NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 20-25. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY – ST. PATRICK’S DAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 40. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish, chance of mix/snow at night. Low 25. High 35.

TUESDAY: Storm of rain/ice/snow. Low 30. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 27. High 41.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 39.