8:37PM

Low pressure will spin around and lift northward through the northeastern US through Friday, replaced with another low pressure system moving west to east across the region during the weekend. This means an unsettled stretch of weather – not raining all the time though. Temperatures will also be variable, coolest near the coast. Friday may be quite a warm day as we get into a southwesterly flow between systems.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s, coolest coastal areas. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A few showers and thunderstorms Thursday night. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 70s except some 60s South Coast. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 55. High 65.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 64.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 63.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 62.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 47. High 65.

This is a quick outlook for what I expect heading into and through the Summer of 2013. There will be more discussion and detail upcoming.

MID TO LATE MAY: Signs of a brief shot of very cool air at mid month followed by a preview of summer warmth, then a couple more cool shots toward the end of the month. Rain or shower events will mark temperature changes but the month overall should see near to below normal precipitation.

JUNE: Jet stream wavers but lifts more to the north with mean ridge position Midwest to interior East. Several frontal passages bring episodes of mostly light rain and a few heavier showers/storms, but the month overall should see a below normal rainfall trend and temperatures near to above normal with dryness increasing and building toward drought conditions in some locations.

JULY: Hot and dry with drought increasing. Limited thunderstorm activity. The pattern could favor mainly isolated air mass storms when there is enough moisture, and only a few shots at storm lines when disturbances pass by if a dominant high pressure ridge weakens a few times.

AUGUST: Tropical moisture increases, a very warm and humid month but not as hot as July. Drought should break from tropical rains at some point during the month.

SEPTEMBER: Summer winds down warm and wet then shifts to cooler and drier.

10:10PM

The coming week will not be as  nice as the long stretch of nice weather we’ve just come through. High pressure will hang on to start the week, but as a block in the atmosphere breaks down, and things begin to move along, an upper level low pressure area from the Midwest and interior South will slide to the Middle Atlantic Coast then lift northward through the Northeast by later in the week. This will bring unsettled weather for the middle and end of the week after a nice beginning.

Forecast for southeastern New England (eastern MA, southern NH, and RI)…

OVERNIGHT: Clear except a few areas of  patchy fog and low clouds. Lows in the middle to upper 30s inland especially valleys to lower 40s coast and urban centers. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Low clouds and fog especially southeastern MA burning off during the morning, otherwise mostly sunny. Highs upper 50s coast to near 70 well inland. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Areas of low clouds and fog reforming in some South Coast areas. Mostly clear otherwise. Lows 40-50 from inland valleys to urban centers. Wind light S.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. High from 60 South Coast to 70-75 inland. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Clouding up. Rain or showers late day and night. Low 48. High 64.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 53. High 66.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 55. High 72.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 57. High 68.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 54. High 64.

8:52PM

Blocking patterns are common to Spring and we have been in one, just in the fair weather section, unlike many times during the Spring when southern New England is in the grey, chilly, damp section. The common theme has been dry weather, lots of sun, mild to warm air well inland but cooler to much cooler along the coast.

This block is beginning to break down, but it will take place over several days. Fair weather will hold on for much of the region into if not through Tuesday, with only some low cloudiness at times especially in southeastern MA including Cape Cod. As things begin to move in the atmosphere, an upper level low pressure that has been cranking its way around the middle of the country will move eastward then northeastward up across New England by the middle of the coming week, but it will be weakening as it does so. This will limit the amount of rain that occurs in southern New England, though it does look unsettled for the middle and end of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Areas of low clouds may develop and cross southeastern MA otherwise mostly clear. Lows 35-40 inland 40-45 coast. Wind NE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Areas of low clouds may continue across southeastern MA especially Cape Cod with sunshine elsewhere. Highs 50s coast, 60s inland. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Some clouds far southeast otherwise clear. Lows around 40 inland to the upper 40s coastal areas. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs upper 50s coast to lower 70s well inland. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Sunny start, more clouds late. Low 48. High 62 coast, 72 inland.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain & drizzle. Low 50. High 62.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers. Low 52. High 60 coast, 67 inland.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 53. High 62 coast, 70 inland.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Low 54. High 65.

7:25AM

High pressure rebuilds to the north of New England today with a northeasterly wind flow keeping it much cooler and also sending areas of low clouds across eastern and southeastern MA and parts of RI today and possibly over Cape Cod and the Islands into Saturday. High pressure settles a bit more to the south allowing it to warm up somewhat during the course of the weekend, but the dry pattern will continue. There may be an interruption to this dry stretch sometime next week, but that will depend on how much moisture can work in as an upper level cut off low tries to lift northward from the Mid Atlantic. Timing for this appears to be late Tuesday through early Thursday of next week, but timing with such systems is always hard to pin down so watch for adjustments and a continued lower than average confidence forecast beyond the weekend.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Variable amounts of low cloudiness eastern and southeastern MA into RI at times with more sun elsewhere. Highs 50-55 coast to 55-60 inland. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Areas of low clouds crossing southeastern MA especially Cape Cod and the Islands otherwise mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny with additional low clouds Cape Cod / Islands, sunny elsewhere. Highs ranging from middle 50s immediate coast to middle 60s well inland. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH turning more E near the coast.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs upper 50s immediate coast to near 70 well inland. Wind variable 5-15 MPH with sea breezes.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 48. High 70.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Watch for risk of rain southern and eastern locations by late. Low 51. High 67.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of rain mainly south and east. Low 53. High 65.

THURSDAY:  Variably cloudy. Risk of rain or showers mainly southeast early. Low 55. High 65.

5:35PM

A run of great weather continues, though it will be somewhat interrupted by the passage of a strong back-door cold front late Thursday that may kick off isolated showers over inland areas as it approaches, and will make Friday a much cooler day in all areas, including inland, than the past few have been. Then it’s right back to the great weather for the weekend and probably the very start of next week. Beyond that, some questions arise based on differences in guidance, and some changes to reliable guidance from yesterday to today. So the end of this forecast will be lower confidence. For the next few days the pollen count will remain high and fire danger will be high as well.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows from the upper 30s inland valleys to middle 40s along the coast. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Sunny start. Clouds building in the afternoon especially inland where isolated showers and even a thunderstorm may pop up briefly. Potential for a deck of lower clouds coming off the ocean especially Boston south toward the end of the day. Highs around 70 inland and 60 coast before a sharp drop of 5 to 10 degrees by evening. Wind light variable into the afternoon then east to northeast 10-25 MPH with the passage of the front from northeast to southwest across the region, relaxing a little bit later.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy early, clearing later. Lows in the 40s. Wind NE 10-15 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 50-55 coast, 55-60 inland. Wind NE 10-15 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 58 coast to 68 inland.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 60 coast to 70 inland.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 70 except cooler coast.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 52. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 53. High 66.