7:07AM

A big diurnal today for many areas. What’s a diurnal? In weather we use it to label the change in temperature from morning low to afternoon high. Today, some places that dipped into the upper 20s this morning will rebound to the lower 60s this afternoon – about a 40 degree diurnal.

Nothing major to change in this forecast from the previous one, other than to keep it a little more cloudy on Friday as a cold front sags through the region and hangs up near the South Coast. Once low pressure rides along this with a shot of wet weather Friday night and early Saturday, the rest of the weekend will be dry. Still looks like clouds arrive later Sunday ahead of a warm front which leads in a warm/windy air mass for Monday. Transition back to cooler air toward the middle of next week will likely result in some wet weather. But it all starts off with a bright day today (until clouds arrive late) with a gusty wind developing as milder air arrives.

Southeastern New England Forecast…

TODAY: Sunny most of day, increasing high clouds late. Highs 60-65, 50s South Coast. Wind SW under 10 MPH early then increasing to 10-20 mph with higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers developing. Lows around 50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early especially southeastern MA to RI. Highs around 60, cooler South Coast. Wind SW to W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain early, then partial clearing. Low 45. High 56.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Low 48. High 64.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 51. High 74.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 68.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Low 35. High 55.

12:59AM

This is that time of year that the sun is really making a difference. We have a fresh cool air mass now over southeastern New England, and the temperatures will be at least 10 degrees cooler in most areas today than they were on Tuesday. But the strong April sunshine will make the air feel warmer than it is, especially since it will be a west wind and not a widespread ocean wind (a west wind does still come off the ocean for parts of the South Coast so it will be cooler there). Some fair weather clouds will pop up from late morning into afternoon as sun hearing the ground will send some bubbles of moisture into the cold air aloft.  The cooler northwest wind of today will shift around to the southwest and start to warm things up on Thursday, with sunshine dominating, though some high clouds may start to increase in the afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will be moving along initially and will pass through the region by early Friday morning, bringing clouds and a risk of a few rain showers. It should push just far enough to allow some partial clearing into at least areas north and west of Boston on Friday while clouds hang on to the southeast. Clouds will likely return to all areas Friday night and Saturday morning, with perhaps some wet weather, as a wave of low pressure slides along the front nearby. Then, high pressure should push in for drier weather later Saturday and Sunday. A warm front will push through the region late Sunday and open the door for a much warmer shot of air at the beginning of next week.  This should be accompanied by fair weather but gusty winds on Monday, but clouds and showers may arrive Tuesday as yet another cold front approaches from the west.

Southeastern New England Forecast…

TODAY: Sunny start and finish with fair weather clouds in between. Highs 52-57, coolest in the hills NW of Boston. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, a few higher gusts.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 28-33 inland valleys, 34-39 elsewhere. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunny into late afternoon then increasing high clouds at the end of the day. Highs 60-65 except 50s  South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy start with a risk of rain showers. Some sun especially NW of Boston afternoon, clouds dominate to the SE. Low 48. High 61.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain morning. Clearing afternoon. Low 45. High 56.

SUNDAY: Sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Low 48. High 64.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 51. High 74.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 68.

6:53PM

A mild Monday saw sun fading behind increasing cloudiness, and rain is set to move in tonight. This rain accompanies a warm front that will cross the region overnight, followed by a cold front that will sweep west to east through the region Tuesday as low pressure moves down the St. Lawrence Valley. The air with this system, even behind the cold front, will be fairly mild, so expect many areas to break 60 for high temperatures on Tuesday. A second front will cross the region Tuesday night and early Wednesday and send a cooler air mass into the region for Wednesday and early Thursday with a northwesterly wind. But winds quickly shift around to the southwest later Thursday as high pressure slips to the southeast of the region, and this will bring briefly milder air in again by Friday, just in time for the arrival of another cold front during Friday, bringing the threat of rain showers. This front may struggle to push through the region so cloudiness may linger into part of Saturday before fair weather takes over for the balance of the weekend, with slight cooling Saturday followed by a warm-up Sunday. This warm up will continue into the start of next week between high pressure offshore and a storm and frontal system to the west of the region.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain. Chance of embedded thunderstorms especially late. Lows 45-50, rising into the 50s overnight. Wind SE 5-15 MPH shifting to S 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and possible thunderstorms early morning tapering to scattered then isolated showers mid through late morning. Becoming partly cloudy with isolated showers afternoon. Highs 60-65 except 50s South Coast. Wind S shifting to SW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind SW shifting to W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs in the 50s. Wind W shifting to NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 57.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 45. High 62.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 40. High 55.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 65.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 74.

3:04AM

High pressure exits to the northeast and low pressure approaches from the southwest today spreading a shield of cloudiness into southeastern New England. By tonight, a warm front will approach and send a batch of rain across the region. Low pressure will pass west of the region early Tuesday then head down the St. Lawrence Valley, first dragging the warm front through the area then sweeping a cold front west to east. Rain will diminish to showers as the warm air arrives, then drier air will sweep in behind the cold front later Tuesday, which will be a fairly mild day. A shot of chilly air will wait until a secondary front crosses the region Wednesday with some passing clouds and a gusty wind. It won’t take long for this shot of chilly air to pass and a southwesterly flow will develop on Thursday, which will start chilly but end warmer. A cold front will approach the region Friday causing some rain showers. The timing of this front remains uncertain several days in advance, so the temperature as well as sky/weather forecast is somewhat low confidence at this time. It looks like the front will push through far enough for fair and cooler weather Saturday and milder weather Sunday.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs in the 50s, coolest near the coast. Wind light SE.

TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Rain likely. Chance of thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the 40s. Wind SE increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with numerous rain showers and a chance of thunderstorms during the morning then scattered lighter showers midday. Clearing mid to late afternoon. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s, coolest South Coast. Wind S to SW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 55.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 33. High 59.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 44. High 61.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 38. High 56.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 63.

11:30AM

A westerly flow will dominate the region, not the frequent east wind we often see this time of year. Sunshine will be limited today due to low level moisture and cold air moving in aloft. This is a recipe for lots of clouds, and even when the sun does shine it just cooks up more clouds. By Sunday, the lower level moisture will be gone and the upper air will be warming, which means much more sunshine!

Monday and Tuesday will be the time for the approach and passage of a southern stream storm system, the center of which will pass northwest of New England and up the St. Lawrence Valley Tuesday. This means that we enter the warm sector on Tuesday, after sun gets filtered and faded by increasing clouds Monday and we get a good slug of rain Monday night. Though being in the warm sector Tuesday does not mean we bust out in to abundant warm sunshine. There will be lots of moisture so clouds will dominate and some showers may linger.

Midweek, that is, Wednesday and Thursday, will resemble today and Sunday in many aspects, though it looks like moisture will be little less available Wednesday so cloudiness should be less extensive than what we are seeing today.

The next weather system arrives Friday – a cold front, with a chance of rain showers. The timing of this front is uncertain. A slower timing of the front would mean a warmer day, a quicker timing would mean a more unsettled day with clouds and showers. But why worry so much about day 7? Let’s just wait and see, and enjoy a pretty decent spell of weather through midweek other than the clouds today and the rainy interruption Monday night into Tuesday.

Detailed forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS AFTERNOON: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 50-58, coolest in the hills NW of Boston, mildest interior southeastern MA and northern RI. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish, rain at night. Low 35. High 57.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, rain showers through midday. Low 48. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Low 36. High 53.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Low 33. High 61.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy, chance of rain showers. Low 46. High 64.

6:05PM

What a great day for baseball … today was. Too bad the home opener for the Red Sox at Fenway Park, just a few miles from the ocean, is tomorrow (Friday). It’s going to be a cold one. Not Arctic cold, but ocean cold. East wind, thickening overcast, temperature in the 40s. That’s a chill to deal with when one is sitting in a park watching a game that evokes memories of hot summer afternoons and warm summer evenings. Patience all. Patience. Those days will come – though the heat part of it may be to the dislike of some of you. What is true now is that we have to deal with the influence of the cold waters of the North Atlantic, which sits right next to us, and has a profound impact on weather near and several miles inland from the coastline on a fairly routine basis during the Spring. Hey, at least the rain will stay away for most of the game, though we can’t rule it out by later in the game, hopefully very light! Yes, more rain on the way, not that it’s been excessively wet of late. March was on the dry side, actually, for much of it, with a very wet ending to the month. But we do have more rain coming, Friday night and early Saturday, as low pressure passes north of the region but drags a warm front through to start with, and then a cold front just behind it. The speed of the system means that Saturday, though starting wet and grey, turns much nicer during the course of the day as a drier and milder west wind develops. And it gets even better. A little bubble high comes in for Sunday and makes it a very nice day ’round these parts. With lighter winds, however, we cannot rule out sea breeze which would set up a significant contrast between coastal and inland temperatures. But it does look like whatever the temperature, that sunshine will be the rule.

Once we start the new week, a new low pressure area will be coming out of the southern US and heading into the northeastern US, probably taking a similar path to the system of Friday night and early Saturday. The weather for Monday and Tuesday may closely resemble that of Friday and Saturday, with fine tuning to be done of course as that time nears.

By the middle of next week, medium range guidance ranges from a chance of snow to a partly cloudy and mild stretch of weather. With a little science mixed with a little optimistic ignorance, I’ll be generalizing a low confidence outlook for Wednesday/Thursday which is subject to change. So please have a salt shaker ready for when you read those, unless you are on a low sodium diet of course.

Read on to find the detailed forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Increasing high cloudiness. Lows 25-30 inland, 30-35 coast/urban areas. Wind N under 10 MPH diminishing to calm.

FRIDAY: Filtered sun especially northern MA and southern NH fading in the afternoon. Thicker overcast southern MA and RI with some very light rain possible South Coast area midday and early afternoon then pushing northeastward later in the day.  Highs in the 40s. Wind calm to start then E 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain. Temperatures hold in the 40s. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH, around 20 MPH at times coast.

SATURDAY: Morning is mainly cloudy with early rain showers, drizzle, and areas of fog. Afternoon turns partly sunny to eventually mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s, may touch 60. Wind SE to variable 5-15 MPH early, then W 10-20 MPH in the afternoon.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 55-60 but may cool in some coastal areas. Wind W 5-15 MPH but local seabreezes possible.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Rain possible at night. Low 39. High 59, cooler coast.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers morning. Low 44. High 61.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 36. High 53.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Low 39. High 58.

8:26PM

Here’s a guarantee. There is a 100% chance of weather during the next 7 days. And this weather will be quite typical of this time of year. What, no dramatic headlines? They may have to resort to coming up with reasons why the weather is not so unusual. Sarcasm aside, a variety of weather but not too extreme during the coming days. Here’s a break-down:

High pressure northwest to north of the region extends into New England with dry and cool to mild weather Thursday. A low pressure area moves southwest to northeast across the northeastern US, passing north of New England late Friday and early Saturday. This will bring a period of wet weather Friday night and early Saturday, followed by improving weather later Saturday. High pressure moves in on Sunday which looks great. A similar cycle repeats Monday and Tuesday next week which will be similar to Friday and Saturday this week. By the middle of next week, a shot of chilly air is expected, and it may be lead in by a late-season bout of wintry precipitation. But being 6+ days away, it’s automatically low confidence from a forecasting standpoint.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THURSDAY: Sunny. Highs upper 40s to middle 50s, coolest east-facing coastal areas. Wind light variable then N to NE 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing high clouds  southwest to northeast. Lows in the 30s. Wind light NE to E.

FRIDAY: Thickening overcast southwest to northeast. Rain possible south and west of Boston by the end of the afternoon. Highs middle 40s to lower 50s, coolest coastal areas. Wind light E to SE.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain or rain showers AM. Clearing west to east PM. Low 40. High 60.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.

MONDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain at night. Low 35. High 50.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. AM rain / PM rain showers. Low 40. High 56.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with snow/mix possible AM. Partly sunny PM. Low 30. High 44.

4:31PM

It’s April. No fooling. Ok I had to. Now on to the weather. It will be fairly typical of early  April during the coming days. The pattern is still a bit on the cooler side of normal and I don’t see big changes in that for the time being. We will have to keep an eye on the weather next week because we won’t be that far away from getting a threat or 2 of a precipitation event that involves mix/snow. But for now, before getting too far ahead of ourselves, we’ll focus on the upcoming several days. There will be a mix of fair and unsettled weather as we’ll be near the jet stream with passing systems. I don’t see anything getting hung up in the region, which is often the case in Spring. Things should be moving along, so we’ll see some variability. The most “significant” system is likely to impact the region Friday night through early Sunday, clouds moving in Friday, wet weather Friday night and Saturday, and a windy sun/cloud mix Sunday as it departs. Prior to that, a weak system will produce some clouds only on Wednesday but more sun should return Thursday as a high pressure area to the northwest and north extends down into the region. We’ll worry about next week later. Ok? Great!

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s most areas, some  upper 20s inland valleys. Wind light NW then variable to calm.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. A few mostly cloudy periods possible. Highs around 50. Wind starts calm then light SE by afternoon.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind light SE to variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 50. Wind variable to N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of rain at night. Low 30. High 50 except 40s coast.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain showers. Low 40. High 53, cooler S coast.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Low 30. High 50.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 30. High 54.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 38. High 48.