7:38PM

We’ll be seeing some up and down (seesaw) temperatures and weather during the next several days as we are now in a transitional pattern between the one we saw start in the middle of May and a new one setting up in which we will see a mostly zonal (west to east) flow across the northern US with frequent passing weather systems, but many of them weak. The coming pattern, though featuring changeable temperatures and episodes of unsettled weather, will also allow for more bouts of Summery weather, though no prolonged heat at the outset.

The changes over the next several days are expected to break down like this:

Cold front settles southward across the region tonight and becomes stationary to the southwest of southern New England Wednesday, with a cooler north to northeast wind, and a fair amount of cloudiness. There is some uncertainty as to how much low cloudiness will be present from the ocean, as we’ll be seeing the ocean moisture fighting with drier air also moving down from the north at the same time, and at the same time some mid and high level moisture from the west will add some cloudiness above any lower clouds. The fair bet is that there will be lots of clouds and very limited sun during Wednesday, though there is room for some surprise sunshine if drier air is more dominant.

By Thursday, the clouds will certainly win the battle as the front to the southwest comes back toward the region as a warm front with stronger overrunning. Though I cannot rule out some patchy light rain, most of the region will probably remain rain-free with just clouds dominating. This warm front should surge northeastward to bring wet weather into the region later Thursday night into early Friday, ending as a few showers as the warm and humid air on the other side of the warm front finally pushes in. We may end up in a fairly wide warm-sector on Friday, which may turn out to be a warm and very humid day with showers and thunderstorms holding back to the west (NY or western New England) as the cold front trailing a parent low pressure passing to the north is slow heading this way.

With some luck, and I am optimistic, the cold front will traverse southeastern New England from west to east later Friday night and early Saturday, with its band of showers and thunderstorms occurring largely during the overnight hours. As long as this front keeps moving, it looks like improving weather would arrive for the second half of Saturday and then continue through the remainder of the weekend, with a dry and warm Father’s Day on Sunday.

Looking into early next week: A taste of Summer, but an increasing risk of thunderstorms.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

EVENING: Mostly cloudy. Showers/thunderstorms over southeastern MA and RI ending. Temperatures cooling into the 60s. Wind shifting to N 10-20 MPH.

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs in the 60s, coolest east-facing and north-facing shores. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind light E.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. Slight chance of light rain. Highs middle 60s to lower 70s, coolest coast. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with rain or showers ending southwest to northeast. Partly sunny afternoon. Mostly cloudy night with showers/thunderstorms west-east late. Low 60. High 80.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with showers/thunderstorms ending west to east. Clearing afternoon. Low 60. High 77.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 62. High 85.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 65. High 88.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. PM showers/thunderstorms. Low 66. High 87.

8:39PM

The next 7 days will feature some unsettled weather along with a few nicer days.

A low pressure system from the west southwest will fall apart as it moves through southeastern New England Monday, but will bring lots of clouds and a few showers. Another system passing north of the region Tuesday will drag a cold front across the region, producing more cloudiness and showers with a chance of thunderstorms too. Expect a break Wednesday between that system and another one approaching, that should bring more showers to the region Thursday. A trough moving across the region, some additional energy, and one more frontal system will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms into Friday. By next weekend, if things work out and move along, nicer weather will return.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SE to S.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Chance of showers. Highs upper 60s South Coast to 70s most areas, near 80 some inland areas if there is enough sun. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SW.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the 70s. Wind SW to S 10-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 57. High 72.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers arriving. Low 60. High 78.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Low 62. High 77.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 61. High 81, cooler some coastal areas.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 63. High 85, cooler some coastal areas.

5:44PM

Almost half way through a beautiful weekend, in which high pressure is our good friend. This high will continue to dominate through tomorrow. One slight difference between today and tomorrow will be the potential for an afternoon sea breeze to push a little further inland tomorrow, which would cut back on the staying power of the warmest temperatures of the day. We’d also have to watch for a remote risk that a few building clouds along the edge of the sea breeze could grow enough to produce an isolated shower, but the risk seems so low that it isn’t even really worth mentioning in the official forecast (will monitor this tomorrow).

By Monday, high pressure will be slipping off to the east and a small area of low pressure will be drifting into the northern Mid Atlantic. This will allow somewhat more humid air to make it into southern New England, though I still expect the weather to remain fair. By Tuesday, this low and an approaching cold front will bring the chance of showers and possibly thunderstorms. Right now it appears that it will move offshore for a break in the weather Wednesday, before the next system arrives with a shower risk Thursday into Friday. An early peek at next weekend indicates improving weather again.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THROUGH SUNSET: Scattered fair weather clouds dissipate – becoming mostly clear. Temperatures cool through the 70s.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 50s, around 60 urban areas. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs around 70 coast to around 80 inland, likely cooling back somewhat from near the coast to as much as around 10 miles inland. wind variable to SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind SE to S up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs upper 60s South Coast, 70s to near 80 elsewhere, warmest inland. Slightly more humid. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 60. High 77.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 57. High 74, cooler coast.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of showers. Low 58. High 72.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Scattered showers. Low 59. High 73.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 60. High 79, cooler coast.

7:26PM

The rain has exited. A drying process is underway, but will be a little slow in completing. The lower levels will indeed dry out through tonight and into Friday, but one upper low has to rotate across the region during Friday and this will ignite some additional cloudiness and a shower risk from northwest to southeast across the region from late morning through mid afternoon. There is even a low risk of a thunderstorm with small hail, since the air aloft will be cold. There will not be any widespread thunderstorm activity or severe weather, however. By Friday night, this will be on the way out, and then in builds high pressure over the weekend, settling off to the southeast of the region by Monday. This spells out the potential for three days of potential high temperatures over 80 in parts of the region, away from the cooling influence of the ocean. Some cloudiness may spill over the top of an upper level ridge centered west of the region Saturday, but there should be less cloudiness and more dominant sun by Sunday. By Monday, you’ll start to feel some humidity increasing around the back side of high pressure.

Looking ahead into next week a little further, it looks mild and slightly unsettled as some weak weather systems will be in the region Tuesday through Thursday. It will be a little hard to pinpoint the timing and impact of any shower and thunderstorm activity until we are closer to these days.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy trending partly cloudy eastern areas, partly cloudy trending mostly cloudy western areas. Patchy fog. Lows in the 50s. Wind N to variable up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Isolated to scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm late morning through mid afternoon, first in southern NH and interior MA, then trending toward southeastern MA and RI before exiting all areas by later in the day. Highs upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind W 5-10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs upper 70s to middle 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 60. High 82.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Daily risk of scattered showers/thunderstorms. Lows 55-62. Highs 75-82.

4:30PM

Unsettled weekdays, nice weekends? Could be a pattern. A frontal system falling apart in the region is responsible for the cloudiness over the region and the shower activity today.  A follow up low pressure area will slide across southeastern New England Thursday, which will be a wet day for most of the region. Upper level low pressure still lingering over the region Friday will hold some clouds and a slight chance of showers in the area. But the weekend should be nice as high pressure moves in. There will be a few episodes of cloudiness but overall sun should dominate and it will turn out nice and warm, especially Sunday. As next week begins, it looks like we head back into an unsettled stretch.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a spot shower possible evening. Cloudy overnight, rain by dawn. Lows 55-60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Rain likely through mid afternoon then drizzle with periods of rain late afternoon/evening. Highs 60-65, upper 50s immediate shore. Wind E to NE up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle and light rain early. Patchy fog. Lows in the 50s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Slight chance of showers late morning into afternoon. Highs 65-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 55. High 75.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 82.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers/thunderstorms. Low 62. High 78.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 58. High 74.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 56. High 72.

8:39PM

The tune of June is often one of lingering volatility from the early and mid Spring, and the increasing amount of days foreshadowing the Dog Days of Summer that lie ahead. We see a bit of both during the next 7 days as weather systems traverse the region with some regularity, bringing changing air masses and bouts of rainfall interspersed with drier weather. Sounds pretty typical, doesn’t it? It is.

The breakdown of these systems:

Low pressure and a cold front approaching from the west Tuesday which will be a fairly warm day with a southerly wind (though the coast will be cooler due to ocean water’s influence). The cold front will get into the region Tuesday night at which time we’ll see an increase in showers and thunderstorms. The front will move very slowly through the region Wednesday so showers and a few thunderstorms will linger, especially in eastern areas through midday, while cloudiness dominates the region for much of the day. A wave of low pressure will followed this up on Thursday, bringing more wet weather, especially later in the day. By Friday this low will be exiting and high pressure approaching, spelling improvement. High pressure brings dry weather this weekend but some cloudiness may roll through the region on Saturday as it starts to warm up aloft rather quickly. By next Monday, we may find ourselves in a similar set up to what tomorrow will hold.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 50s, around 60 some urban centers. Wind light SW.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 70s except 60s some immediate coastal areas and some lower 80s interior MA and NH. Wind S to SSE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clouds increase west to east, followed by a chance of showers and thunderstorms later. Lows in the 60s. Wind S to variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms especially RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH through midday, diminishing later. Temperatures steady in the 60s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Cloudy. PM rain. Low 55. High 65.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 53. High 71.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 57. High 75.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 79.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day or nighttime storms? Low 63. High 82.

8:19PM

The outlook for the coming week was essentially done in the previous blog, but here I will recap that, adjust for timing for a later frontal approach (lessening the chance of showers/storms during Tuesday), and adding a day 7 (next Sunday).

High pressure overhead provides a mostly clear and cool night tonight with only some high clouds drifting down from the north on the east side of an upper level high pressure ridge center to the west of the region. The surface high that has been overhead will settle to the south and southeast of the area Monday and Tuesday, allowing for a warm southwesterly flow to become established. This will provide a taste of Summer, especially away from the South Coast where the air will be modified by the cooler ocean waters nearby. A cold front will approach the region late Tuesday but should hold back long enough to  keep the chance of showers and thunderstorms away until sometime Tuesday night, possibly late. A later arrival of the front would also diminish the chance of stronger storms. This front will be in the area early Wednesday with showers and a chance of thunderstorms, but should start to push offshore during the day with less showers, but lots of clouds lingering and cooler air arriving. Upper level low pressure may hold clouds as the dominant factor Thursday and even into Friday as it is slow to exit, then later Friday it gets out of here and again we set up a ridge to the west, trough to the east pattern. This may allow some additional cloudiness to spill into the region from Canada for part of next weekend – a typical late Spring / early Summer set-up.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 40s inland valleys, 50s elsewhere. Wind light SE to S.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs upper 60s South Coast to lower 80s interior MA/NH. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows middle 50s to lower 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of nighttime showers/thunderstorms. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s, cooler South Coast.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely AM. Chance of showers PM. Low 58. High 68.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 72.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 54. High 73, cooler coast.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 55. High 75, cooler coast.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 75, cooler coast.

10:41AM

Today will be a top 10 day. High pressure sits right on top of New England with a clear sky, light wind, and mild air being the result. The lingering chill of the ocean water still has impact, however, and that will be felt at the beaches today. So not exactly a perfect beach day unless you can deal with it being a little cool, which I suppose makes it a very good early season beach day if that’s where you find yourself today. Many people will find themselves at graduation ceremonies, the majority of them outdoors, with great weather for it. But be reminded, the sun is strong. It does not have to be a hot day to be dangerous. Do not forget sun screen if you are susceptible to getting sunburn.

What is coming up for the week? Well today we make some minor adjustments, as one may have expected was necessary given the level of uncertainty expressed in previous discussions. It looks like the warm air flows in for Monday and lasts through Tuesday as the next cold front will take its time arriving. It will be approaching during Tuesday though, increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms then, after a rain-free Monday.

At midweek, upper level low pressure will traverse the region and it will be somewhat cooler and unsettled (in that there is a shower threat, especially Wednesday, less so Thursday). It does not look like we are in for a repeat of the unseasonable chill of the middle of last week.

“But we can’t wait! What about next weekend???” I’m optimistic that Friday and Saturday will be ok. The upper level low that I was concerned about never really makes it here as I see it now, and gets caught up in the other upper low going offshore after midweek. With this to the east and a ridge to the west, we should end up dry but a little cooler than normal by the end of the week. Are we looking at perfection? It’s too early to say and probably not, but the early call is for a decent end to the week. When we get into a pattern where there is a ridge to the west, we always have to watch for disturbances coming over the top and bringing clouds and showers when only a few days before it did not look like it would happen (Memorial Day, for example). I’ll take one more step and add Sunday to the forecast on the next update this evening, so you’ll just have to wait for my thoughts on that. 🙂

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 60s coast, 70s inland. Wind light NE to SE.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows upper 40s inland valleys, 50s elsewhere. Wind light SE to S.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs upper 60s South Coast to lower 80s interior MA/NH. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. PM showers/thunderstorms. Low 62. High 82, cooler coast.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely. Low 58. High 68.

THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Low 55. High 72.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Low 54. High 73, cooler coast.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 55. High 77, cooler coast.