1:27AM

You’ll get plenty of over-analyzing of the impending foul weather situation wherever you turn for information, so for this post I’m going to simplify the analysis and just explain how I think it’s going to evolve, and what will result in southeastern New England. And we’ll look beyond this as well, of course, out through 7 days. So here goes…

High pressure centered north of New England starts to give way and retreat to the northeast today. While this is going on, low pressure dropping southeastward from the Great Lakes toward the Mid Atlantic will transfer its energy to a frontal boundary offshore. The result will be a series of low pressure areas along this boundary, all moving northeastward over the water southeast to east of New England beginning in the early hours of Saturday and continuing through the late hours of Sunday. The first wave of low pressure will be far enough offshore to keep any steady and significant precipitation out at sea, but an onshore flow with plenty of moisture will bring lots of clouds and the chance of some drizzle and light rain to the region mainly after midnight Friday night into Saturday morning. I’m still expecting dry but cool conditions for Friday evening Halloween activities. A second low pressure wave will develop a little more and come just a little closer, bringing a better chance of rain to southeastern and eastern MA, possibly as far west as RI, and into southeastern NH as well. Most of this will occur during Saturday afternoon and evening. Though we will be feeling a chill, the air will still be too warm to support any snow, so this event will be rain. The final low pressure area will become the strongest, but will likely pass too far east to bring steady or heavy rain with the exception of Cape Cod early Sunday. Only rain showers and possibly snow showers will take place over the remainder of the region as cold air continues to work in from the north. At the same time it will also be drying out, and this may limit the rain/snow shower activity. What will take place is increasing northeast to north winds during the course of the weekend so that by Sunday much of the region is blustery with very gusty winds, strongest in higher elevations and in the coastal plain. By Sunday night, we’ll clear out as the final storm moves away.

Monday will be a bright but chilly day as low pressure continues to distance itself from New England and high pressure tries to build in from the west, the core of it passing southwest of New England. This high will then move offshore allowing a warm-up to take place Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the north by Thursday with some increase in clouds and a chance of rain showers. At 7 days away, this is subject to some change.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Sunshine followed by increasing cloudiness. Highs in the 50s. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
HALLOWEEN EVENING: Mostly cloudy. Temperatures 45-50. Wind E up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle and light rain mainly after midnight favoring coastal areas. Lows 40-45. Wind ENE 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog and drizzle and a chance of light rain through midday. Better chance of rain afternoon especially southeastern to eastern MA and southeastern NH. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts coastal areas.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain likely in the evening, heaviest near eastern coastal areas. Lows 35-40, lower 40s South Coast / Cape Cod. Wind NE to N 15-25 MPH, higher gusts especially coastal areas.
SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain likely Cape Cod through midday. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny elsewhere with scattered rain showers early then only a slight chance of rain/snow showers during midday and afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind N 15-25 MPH with gusts 35-45 MPH, possibly higher some coastal areas and higher elevations.
MONDAY: Sunny. Low 30. High 50.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 40. High 60.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 50. High 70.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of PM rain showers. Low 55. High 65.

7:42AM

Quick update which is basically a copy/paste of parts of the previous discussion and a few new thoughts going forward.

The repeat portion…

Today… An area of high pressure will build across southeastern Canada and northern New England and supply our region with fair, seasonably cool, and dry weather.

Friday daytime… High pressure starts to retreat allowing sunshine to eventually give way to clouds advancing from the west as low pressure in the Great Lakes dives to the southeast toward the northern Middle Atlantic States.

Friday nighttime (Halloween)… Clouds thicken but it looks like any rainfall from the low pressure area to the west and south will hold off until after midnight. Evening activities (trick or treat, parties) will be met with lots of clouds and temperatures in the upper 40s in most locations, but not too much wind. The late-night crowd may be heading home in some rain.

Weekend… 2-part storm with part 1 being the closer redevelopment of the low from the Great Lakes producing some periods of light rain and drizzle mainly Saturday afternoon and evening, and part 2 being the evolution and deepening of a second storm too far east to bring steady rain to anywhere except probably Cape Cod but a gusty wind and a draw-down of colder air for the rest of the region. The snow threat is out of the equation with this scenario, which seemed most likely all the while. Cannot rule out a few rain/snow showers around the back side of the low at some point on Sunday over southeastern NH and eastern MA.

Early next week… Fair with a warming trend, though still on the chilly side Monday with the meaningful warm up more for Election Day Tuesday and Wednesday.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs 55-60. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 35-40 except lower 40s coast. Wind light NW.
FRIDAY: Sunshine followed by increasing clouds. Highs in the 50s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT – HALLOWEEN: Lots of clouds evening with trick-or-treat temperatures 45-50 and a light breeze. Overnight cloudy with a chance of light rain or drizzle especially near the coast, lows 40-45, and wind turning light NE.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain/drizzle, especially afternoon and especially eastern and southeastern areas. Highs 45-50. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially coast.
SUNDAY: Lots of clouds, a rain or snow shower possible. Low 35. High 45.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 45.
TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 40. High 55.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 60.

7:48PM

A whole lot will be happening in the weather during the next 7 days, and here is a look ahead at what the volatile pattern is able to do and how I think it will play out…

Tonight… We have seen a warm front push into but not completely though the region today. Though it was a fairly nice day despite some cloudiness, and many areas were in the 60s, there was an area of 50s in northeastern MA and southern NH where the front never crossed. Tonight, this boundary may remain nearly stationary, and it will be a little cooler here with a light east wind while the remainder of the region sees a light wind from the south. Where the wind is east and the air cooler, watch for low clouds and areas of fog. Elsewhere, lots of clouds will be the rule due to continued moistening of the atmosphere at all levels ahead of a cold front.

Wednesday… This cold front will be moving west to east through southeastern New England, with lots of cloudiness but mild air ahead of it. The cloudiness will actually keep the temperatures from reaching what would have been their maximum potential, well into the 70s. Instead middle 60s to lower 70s will be common. Ahead of and along the cold front, some scattered showers are expected. Though the activity is not expected to be widespread, there is the potential for a few isolated downpours and even thunder. Most areas will see light rain showers or nothing at all. At night, the front will finally push through and clearing, cooler conditions will move in from west to east.

Thursday… An area of high pressure will build across southeastern Canada and northern New England and supply our region with fair, seasonably cool, and dry weather.

Friday daytime… High pressure starts to retreat allowing sunshine to eventually give way to clouds advancing from the west as low pressure in the Great Lakes dives to the southeast toward the northern Middle Atlantic States.

Friday nighttime (Halloween)… Clouds thicken but it looks like any rainfall from the low pressure area to the west and south will hold off until after midnight. Evening activities (trick or treat, parties) will be met with lots of clouds and temperatures in the upper 40s in most locations, but not too much wind. The late-night crowd may be heading home in the rain.

Weekend… You’ve all been hearing the talk, the speculation, and maybe even seen the very-unnecessary posting of model snowfall forecast maps days in advance of what is only at this point a potential impact by a developing storm interacting with cold air moving into the region. That recipe is not automatic snowstorm at any time of year, even mid Winter. But given that it’s the end of October now and this event will be taking place during the first 2 days of November, there is even more doubt via climatology. We have a warm ocean, models that are forecasting without “knowing” how warm some of the lower levels of the atmosphere are, and just the uncertainty in how it will play out, detail-wise, which is only normal for this many days in advance. So as I did in the previous discussion, I will leave this far shy of anything that resembles a confident final outlook. Here’s what I do know: The low pressure system passing west and south of New England on Friday night is expected to trigger the development of a new storm off the northern Middle Atlantic Coast by Saturday which will then move northeastward an unknown number of miles south and east of Cape Cod and eventually east of northern New England by the end of the weekend, intensifying all the while. There will be impact, but to what degree is unknown. Potentials include precipitation ranging from rain to snow and an increase in wind. More certain is the fact it will be turning colder. There will be much more to say on this in time, but an early idea is that the evolution of the new storm will take place just too far east for direct major impact, and that we will have a period of rain at some point then a more intermittent rain to snow shower episode along with gusty wind. The Patriots will be playing a game in Foxboro MA that kicks off at 4:25PM on Sunday, and an early outlook for this game would be breaking clouds, moderate to strong north to northwest winds, and temperatures in the 30s, if the early scenario I foresee does come to be. Though this is technically an “afternoon game” it will largely be played as a night game, given that sunset is shortly after 4:30PM. Why? Because we switch the clocks back to Standard Time at 2AM on Sunday.

Early next week… Fair weather returns, though Monday will likely be chilly and breezy before we see a warm-up for Tuesday, Election Day.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Lots of clouds. Some areas of fog possible northeastern MA and southeastern NH. Lows around 50 northeastern MA and southeastern NH, 50s elsewhere. Wind light E in northeastern MA and southeastern NH shifting to S late, S under 10 MPH elsewhere.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers midday and afternoon. Slight risk of brief downpours with thunder. Highs in the 60s South Coast / Cape Cod, lower 70s elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lots of clouds and a lingering shower possible early, then clearing. Lows in the 40s. Wind shifting to NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Sunny start, increasing clouds, cloudy at night with a chance of rain developing overnight. Lows upper 30s to 40. Highs in the 50s daytime. Temps 45-50 trick-or-treat time, lower 40s late night.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain or rain showers, may mix with or turn to snow or snow showers night, especially well northwest of Boston. Temperatures steady in the 40s through the day falling into the 30s at night.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow/rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs around 40. Windy.
MONDAY: Sun & clouds, more sun late. Breezy. Lows around 30. Highs around 50.
TUESDAY – ELECTION DAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Highs around 60.

7:33AM

This is a forecast update only. The discussion is largely the same other than slightly slower timing. Full discussion and another update later today.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers afternoon. Highs around 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 44. High 57.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 38. High 55.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 35. High 45.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 32. High 40.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 30. High 50.

9:34PM

After an eventful week which included a fairly powerful wind/rain storm, we will see a mix of tranquil and volatile weather this coming week.

OVERVIEW…
The week will open with high pressure sinking to the south and a warm front approaching then passing, with a warming trend into Wednesday, then a cold front cooling things down toward the end of the week. A potent upper level system born of a Pacific tropical cyclone may bring some unsettled weather followed by a cold blast as Halloween leads into November.

DETAILS…
Monday will be a fair but breezy day as low pressure moves through eastern Canada and an extension of high pressure over the US Mid Atlantic moves into the Northeast with a westerly flow between them. Low pressure will then move northeastward through the Great Lakes Tuesday and into eastern Canada Wednesday. Its warm front will pass by early Tuesday introducing warmer air to the region. Its cold front will swing in from the west by Wednesday but will have limited moisture to work with, so it will bring only a risk of passing showers and that day will also be quite mild. Some cooler air will work in during Thursday as weak high pressure follows a secondary front into the region. Meanwhile, the low pressure area that was once a tropical cyclone (Ana) in the Pacific Ocean will enter western Canada then cross the country during the middle of the week. This system has a long history, having been born on October 13 nearly 1000 miles east southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. It made a close pass to the islands but not a direct hit on October 18 and 19 as a hurricane, and since has curved to the north and northeast and lost its tropical characteristics. It is still a pretty potent storm system, however, and in transitioned state will have an impact on the weather here in New England when it finally completes its journey here late Friday into Saturday. As it does so it will be tapping some cold air that has leaked into Canada from Siberia. The result will be clouds moving in during the day Friday, leading to a Halloween Night that may turn wet and eventually white in some areas if the cold air works in quickly enough. This will need to be watched as it does carry potential for putting down some of the first accumulating snow of the season. By Saturday, the small but energetic system will be exiting to the east but will still have enough influence on the weather to bring the threat of rain/snow showers, along with colder air and windy conditions. The expansion of this low as it intensifies to the east up against high pressure trying to build in from the west on Sunday will allow windy and cold weather to continue. Of course, any forecast more than a few days out is going to carry some uncertainty, so please check back for updates on the late week situation.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH, gusting around 20 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusting around 25 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy morning, partly cloudy afternoon. Highs in the 60s to around 70. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers mainly morning-midday. Low 51. High 70.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 42. High 57.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. A period of rain possibly turning to mix/snow especially inland at night. Low 41. High 54.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy and windy. Scattered rain and snow showers. Low 35. High 46.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 32. High 45.

8:24AM

Short discussion (full one later with The Week Ahead post)…
Today… Upper level low pressure passing north of the region but lobe of energy on the southern side of it comes across as we undergo cold air advection at the surface. This combines for a gusty wind, cooler air, a variably cloudy sky which may become mostly cloudy at times, and a slight risk of passing light rain showers (but no widespread rain).
Tonight… Clouds decrease but wind stays gusty as cool air continues to flow into the region.
Monday… High pressure builds just south of the region while low pressure continues to slowly push away to the north, allowing for plenty of sun but still a gusty breeze.
Monday night / Tuesday… Some cloudiness but but then a fair amount of sun returning during the day Tuesday as warm air moves in first aloft then at the surface as a warm front moves through.
Tuesday night / Wednesday… Additional cloudiness but some sun as well during the day Wednesday, also cannot rule out a band of scattered to widespread showers passing by along a cold front that does not have too much moisture to work with.
Thursday… Weak high pressure but enough to provide fair weather with cooler air.
Friday… Starts nice but clouds advance ahead of a low pressure trough.
Friday night (Halloween) / Saturday (November 1)… Not sure how a trough and low pressure evolve along the East Coast just yet. Going to stay away from major storm development at this point, though there have been several computer model runs that have hinted at it. So this part of the forecast subject to significant change.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of passing light rain showers during the afternoon. Highs 53-60. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Decreasing clouds. Lows 38-45. Wind W 10-20 MPH. and gusty.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 58-66. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.
TUESDAY: More clouds AM, more sun PM. Low 50. High 68.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 55. High 72.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 60.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 40. High 56.
SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain and snow showers. Low 35. High 45.

7:34AM

The cut-off low pressure area will finally wander away today and tonight but not after causing one more mainly cloudy and partially damp day today. This will be replaced by a fast-flowing jet stream pattern with changing weather over the next several days. The weekend will feature fair and mild weather Saturday, fair and cool weather Sunday, bisected by a cold front Saturday night with no more than a few showers. A warm front slides into the region Monday with some cloudiness to start, more sun to finish, and the start of a warm-up, which will continue Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front slides through late Wednesday with some clouds and a shower risk. A small area of high pressure comes along Thursday with fair weather and slightly cooler air, based on current timing.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Overcast with areas of fog and drizzle and scattered light rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy with isolated rain showers mainly near east coastal areas this afternoon. Breaks of sun possible late. Highs 50-55. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Patchy fog. Lows 40-45. Diminishing NW wind.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Partly cloudy afternoon. Highs 60-65. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Slight chance of passing rain showers. Lows around 50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY: Sun & clouds. Highs in the 50s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 44. High 60.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 51. High 70.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 54. High 72.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 60.

12:21AM

Right off the bat let me state that even though I expected this storm to pack a bit of a punch, it is a more powerful one than I anticipated. Things have come together just so to make low pressure intensify rapidly just southeast of New England, creating strong, gusty northeast winds and bands of heavy rain including lightning and thunder. As of the writing of this blog entry (about midnight Wednesday night) the storm is peaking and will continue to do so into the early morning hours with additional strong wind gusts and bands of heavy rain including the chance of thunderstorms. Some coastal flooding has occurred with a recent high tide and may repeat again with the late morning high tide Thursday, not severe flooding but significant enough in some areas for some disruptions to travel on coastal roads and minor damage to property. Beach erosion will also be an issue. Scattered power outages mainly from downed trees and tree limbs have been occurring and will continue into the morning. Once the afternoon arrives, things will wind down more steadily with rain becoming more scattered and lighter, and wind slackening slowly. It will take well into Friday for the storm to really start to loosen its grip, as Friday will contain lots of clouds and some risk of additional wet weather. Improvement comes over the weekend, though it will still be fairly breezy with briefly milder weather Saturday and a cooler Sunday. The first half of next week looks fair with a warming trend as high pressure builds in then slips off the coast.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Overcast. Bands of rain, some heavy to very heavy, including lightning and thunder. Other times just drizzle. Temperatures steady upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind NE 15-35 MPH with gusts 40-60 MPH, strongest along the coast.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Bands of moderate to heavy rain including a chance of thunderstorms with drizzle at other times in the morning, tapering to more scattered areas of light to moderate rain with drizzle as well in the afternoon. Temperatures steady upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind NE to N 15-30 MPH with higher gusts, diminishing slightly later in the day.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with periods of rain. Lows around 50. Wind N 15-35 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers. Highs 55-60. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Passing rain shower late. Low 45. High 65.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 45. High 60.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 55.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 45. High 65.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 48. High 70.

11:26PM

No big changes for this update. The evolution of low pressure is going to take place as described in the previous post, resulting in an unsettled to stormy period of weather Tuesday into Friday. The system has quite a bit of energy with it, so one change is to add a risk of thunder with some of the heaviest rain bands. There is still a little uncertainty as to where the heaviest bands will set up, but it appears that the most likely area for heaviest rain will be northern MA northward from the first impulse Tuesday night/Wednesday and anywhere in the region from a second impulse Wednesday night/Thursday. It should all wind down on Friday as low pressure starts to pull away to the east and the wind turns more to the north, pulling drier air in. It still looks like a breezy weekend, coolest on Sunday, but for this update going to ease up on the degree of the chill over what was forecast in the previous blog.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Increasing chance of showers. Lows 50-55. Wind light S to SE.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of showers, locally heavy, with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs around 60. Wind SE to E 5-15 mph.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain, possibly heavy, especially northern MA and southeastern NH. Chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the 50s. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH, higher gusts along the coast.
WEDNESDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain, possibly heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady in the 50s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts especially along the coast.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Periods of rain, possibly heavy. Chance of thunderstorms. Areas of fog. Temperatures steady in the 50s. Wind NE 15-25 MPH.
THURSDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures falling to around 50. Wind NE 15-25 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lingering rain showers. Low 45. High 55.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny and windy. Passing PM shower. Low 45. High 62.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy and windy. Low 40. High 53.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 38. High 59.

10:24PM

Cold air arrived on Sunday and the overnight hours will see dissipating clouds and slackening wind, allowing temperatures to drop to near to even below freezing in areas just away from the coast. A freeze warning is up for these locations, with a frost advisory closer to the coast.

A sliver of high pressure will be enough to provide a bright and wonderful Autumn Day to start out the new week Monday, then low pressure moving southeastward from the Great Lakes to just south of New England will sit and spin Tuesday through Thursday before starting to lift slowly away at the end of the week. This will bring 4 days of wet, chilly, breezy weather. Improving weather follows for next weekend but some instability may still cause a few rain showers Saturday and rain/snow showers Sunday as colder air again flows back into the region.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Clearing. Lows upper 20s inland valleys, lower to middle 30s elsewhere. Wind light NW.
MONDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind light W.
MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows upper 30s inland valleys, lower to middle 40s elsewhere. Wind light SW.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Rain developing. Highs in the 50s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Cloudy with periods of rain/wind. Lows around 45. Highs around 55.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with lingering rain showers. Low 45. High 58.
SATURDAY: Sun/clouds, isolated rain showers. Low 42. High 61.
SUNDAY: Sun/clouds, windy. Isolated rain sprinkle/snow flurry. Low 32. High 47.

9:46AM

First, this weekend. It’s a transition weekend, going from a mild Saturday feeling like September to a chilly Sunday feeling like November. But that’s how we come up with averages, and October is a fickle month often combining warmth of Summer-just-ended with first hints of Winter-to-come. We’ll get that this weekend. A few showers will be around today, especially later afternoon, as a cold front approaches. Ahead of it, a gusty southwest breeze will help maintain the last of the mild air for a while. Once the front goes by tonight, the chilly air will flow in as the wind shifts to northwest. This will continue on Sunday which will be a much cooler day. There may be a few instability showers that pop up on Sunday but it will be a mainly dry day. At night, high pressure moves overhead, the sky clears out, and the temperature drops. Frost may be forming in many areas outside urban centers and away from the immediate shore.

Next week (Monday-Friday): Enjoy a bright and cool October day Monday because that will likely be the only time you see the sun for the remainder of this 5-day period (unless we luck out later Friday). As a small high pressure area delivers the nice weather Monday, low pressure will be dropping through the Great Lakes and heading for the northern Mid Atlantic. It will then evolve into a new storm system trapped under an upper level low pressure area that sits and spins for 4 days, starting Tuesday, bringing unsettled and chilly weather to southeastern New England. It’s hard to say at this point how much rain will fall in total during this period, but there is the potential for some significant amounts, which will be good in that it will continue to alleviate the deficit, but could also lead to some flooding issues should it persist heavily enough. We’ll also have to be on the lookout for coastal flooding due to onshore wind over a prolonged period of time and higher astronomical tides around the New Moon (next Thursday).

Late October: It’s not often I offer any detail beyond my normal 7-day forecasting period, but today a little look into what may transpire as we go through the last weekend and work week of October (Saturday October 25 through Friday October 31). Behind the departing prolonged storm should come a windy and colder weekend. There are hints that it may even be cold enough around October 26 for the first snowflakes to fall in some areas, including the Boston area. Not a snowstorm, but rain and snow showers due to cold air moving in while it is also unstable. Following this, a significant warm-up may take place as we head toward Halloween.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Partly sunny. Scattered rain showers. Remote risk of thunder. Highs from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with scattered rain showers early then partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy, clouds most dominant midday, sun increasing later. Isolated rain showers possible mainly inland higher elevations. Highs upper 40s interior hills to 50-55 elsewhere. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunny. Low 34. High 55.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Late rain. Low 42. High 52.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Windy. Low 42. High 49.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain. Windy. Low 43. High 48.
FRIDAY: Cloudy. Lingering rain. Windy. Low 44. High 54.

11:05PM

Trough/front #1 is about to push offshore as of late night Thursday / early morning Friday. With it goes the rain and humidity, but Friday will stay rather mild even as drier air flows into the region on a southwest to west wind around broad low pressure to the north. Trough/front #2 will quietly cross New England Friday night taking temperatures down just a touch for Saturday, with stronger trough/front #3 coming through Saturday night / early Sunday with a few showers, and this one will send temperatures into a tumble, resulting in a much cooler day for Sunday. We then get to enjoy a fair but chilly day Monday, but the pattern will evolve into a chilly and unsettled one for the better part of next week as an upper low drops through the Great Lakes and eastern Ohio Valley by the start of the week then slowly moves over and just south of southern New England by the middle of next week. This will result in an unsettled and chilly episode that may last several days.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Breaking clouds. Patchy fog. Less humid. Lows 55-62. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mixed sun and clouds. Highs 68-75. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-56. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 64-70. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows around 50. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs in the 50s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Sunny. Low 35. High 55.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Low 40. High 50.
WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 42. High 49.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Low 43. High 48.

7:29AM

Only a quick forecast update. Discussion later!

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog especially South Coast. Showers arriving west to east and becoming more numerous. Heavier rain/thunderstorms possible late day. Highs 65-73. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Heaviest band of rain and embedded thunderstorms pushing southwest to northeast through the region early. Humid. Lows 60-65. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs in the 70s. Less humid. Wind WSW 15-25 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. A few showers possible at night. Low 50. High 65.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A stray afternoon shower inland hills. Low 45. High 56.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 55.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 35. High 54.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 38. High 55.

11:27PM

Tropical air is on a journey northward into New England and will continue to flood into the region through Thursday on a southerly wind. It will be quite warm on Wednesday even with just partial sunshine, but a cold front moving into the region on Thursday will bring showers, including a band or two of heavier rain and thunderstorms especially in the afternoon and evening. This will likely have some impact on the Patriots/Jets game in Foxboro.

By Friday, the wet weather and high humidity be pushing off to the northeast but around a very broad low pressure area there will still be mild air blowing into the region on a west southwest wind. The trend to cool will be a stair-step downward with 70s Friday, 60s Saturday, and 50s by Sunday as a series of troughs and fronts move through and winds gradually shifting more west to northwest by the end of the weekend when it will feel more like the end of October.

Early next week will be governed by high pressure and fair weather with cool to seasonable air.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
OVERNIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Areas of fog South Coast. Humid. Lows 60-65. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 75-80, cooler South Coast. Humid. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows 60-65. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Areas of fog especially South Coast. Showers arriving west to east and becoming more numerous. Heavier rain/thunderstorms possible late day. Highs 65-73. Wind S 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Heaviest band of rain and embedded thunderstorms pushing southwest to northeast through the region. Humid. Lows 60-65. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs in the 70s. Less humid. Wind WSW 15-25 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. A few showers possible at night. Low 50. High 65.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A stray afternoon shower inland hills. Low 45. High 56.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 40. High 58.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 35. High 61.

5:27PM

I hope anybody that had today off was able to enjoy it around southeastern New England, despite the day turning more grey than I had forecast. This post does not carry major changes from the previous one, with still some warmer and more humid air on the way in during the next 2 days, and a front crossing the region Thursday with showers and possible thunderstorms. There remains some uncertainly about the weather late in the week as there are still some significant model differences, but for now still leaning toward a drying/cooling trend Friday through the weekend.

SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FORECAST…
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind S up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 70-75, 60s South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 50s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs in the 70s, some 60s South Coast. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Showers likely. Chance of thunderstorms. Heaviest rain most likely late afternoon and night. Lows around 60. Highs around 70.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows around 55. Highs around 70.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 45. Highs around 60.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Lows around 45. Highs around 60.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs around 60.