3:03AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)…
The volatility of Spring will be on display as we end March and begin April. What we do know: Changes will be frequent and sometimes very pronounced. What we don’t know: The small details, but below I’ll try to give a breakdown of how I expect it to go and as always a fine-tuning will be done in updates to come… First, as we say goodbye to March, we’ll do so with a reminder of the warmer than normal weather that dominated a good portion of the month. This will be done with a strong southwest wind, however, which will take away from what would be a otherwise a very enjoyable day. A cold front approaching tonight and Friday will bring cloudiness and several rounds of rain showers. And then comes the transition to colder weather during April’s first weekend. With the upper level trough slow to pass and one front in the vicinity, I’m going to lean a little more pessimistic than I had been before on Saturday’s forecast, keeping lots of clouds and the chance of rain showers in it. A small but intensifying low pressure area will move across the region in the early hours of Sunday, dragging a very late season Arctic cold front through, bringing strong winds, much colder air, and a chance of snow showers Sunday. There’s even the risk of a period of snow with the low itself that may result in some accumulation of snow for parts of the region Sunday morning, depending on timing. Quick-moving systems mean that the next round of unsettled weather, in the form of snow or mix, may arrive by later Monday, depending on the movement of a wave of low pressure coming out of the Great Lakes region.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 50s South Coast / Cape Cod, 60s elsewhere, may touch 70 in valleys. Wind SW increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts over 35 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers, especially overnight. Lows in the 50s. Wind SW 15-30 MPH with gusts over 35 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Highs in the 60s. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Lows in the 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers day and evening. Period of rain/mix to snow overnight. Temperatures steady in the 40s day falling to the 30s evening.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Very windy. Temperatures steady in the 30s.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM snow/mix possible. Lows in the 20s. Highs around 40.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 5-9)…
Showers of snow/mix possible early April 5 otherwise windy. Fair April 6. Mix/rain possible April 7. Chance of rain/mix/snow April 8, then rain/snow showers April 9. Temperatures below normal throughout the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 10-14)…
A shift to milder weather with fair weather for the most part except some mid-period rain showers.

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)…
High pressure controls today, breezy but less windy than yesterday, and also milder. Winds return Thursday as the southwesterly wind flow strengthens and transports warmer air in. A cold front moves into the area Friday producing rain showers in the lingering mild air. The weekend trends colder as a couple strong cold fronts move through. We may even see some April snow flakes by Saturday night or Sunday as the cold air becomes established.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the middle 50s to near 60, except lower 50s Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs from the middle 60s to near 70, except 50s Cape Cod. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny day. Variably cloudy with rain to snow showers night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy and windy. Chance of snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 4-8)…
Dry but lots of clouds and cold April 4. Watching an area of low pressure for possible snow/mix April 5-6. Additional unsettled weather, more likely rain or drizzle, April 7-8. Temperatures remain mostly below normal through the period.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 9-13)…
Fair and milder early to mid period. Risk of some unsettled weather again before the end of the period.

7:19AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)…
March can be known for wind, and it will live up to this over the next few days, but those winds will bring varying temperatures along with them, chilly today, milder tomorrow, and warmer Thursday, as our changeable weather pattern continues. After the mild spell that comes in during midweek and lasts through the first day of April on Friday, it still looks like we’ll start heading in the other direction again as the weekend arrives.
TODAY: Sunshine with areas of passing clouds. Highs from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts 35-50 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W and diminishing.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the middle 50s to near 60, except lower 50s Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind WSW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the middle 60s to near 70, except 50s Cape Cod. Wind SW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 3-8)…
Windy and colder with a chance of snow showers April 3. Dry but lots of clouds and cold April 4. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow/mix and continued cold April 5. Risk of light mix/rain April 6, very cool. Chance of light mix/drizzle/rain April 7 and still cool.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 9-13)…
Fair and milder early to mid period. Risk of some unsettled weather again before the end of the period.

1:57AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)…
A double-barrel low pressure system will bring wet weather to southern New England today making it a classic rainy Monday. One low will pass south of the region with the other passing to the north. The southern system, bring the stronger of the two, means an east to northeasterly flow of chilly air along with the wet weather. After passing, the two lows will take part in a “maritime merger” on Tuesday and form one very strong storm systems. The result here will be dry weather but lots of wind and still a chill. But as has been the case for quite some time, systems continue to cruise along, and a high pressure area will govern the weather Wednesday, but passing south of the region, allowing a gusty westerly breeze to take over, which will then shift to southwest Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. This will bring warmer air in but continue the windy regime. Rain showers associated with the cold front seem, at this time, destined to hold off until Thursday night and we’ll have to wait for a secondary front to come along later Friday to put an end to the shower threat, though it will remain mild for Friday as well, which is the first day of April.
TODAY: Overcast with periods of rain, some of which may be briefly heavy. Remote chance of thunder. Areas of fog. Highs 40-45 southern NH and northern MA, 45-50 southern MA and RI. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH except 10-20 MPH with higher gusts in southern MA and RI, shifting to SE late in the day.
TONIGHT: Cloudy with areas of fog and lingering rain showers evening, then partial clearing overnight. Lows 35-40. Wind SE shifting to W and increasing to 15-25 MPH with gusts above 30 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-50 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny and breezy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny and breezy. Chance of rain showers at night. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 2-6)…
Cooler and breezy April 2 with mainly dry weather. Colder and windy April 3 with possible rain to snow showers. Lots of clouds, breezy, and very cool April 4. Fair and cool April 5. Continued cool with a chance of rain later April 6.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 7-11)…
Unsettled weather early in the period followed by a turn to fair weather, including a milder trend.

8:05AM
DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 27-31)…
No changes from yesterday. Forecast update only. Happy Easter to those celebrating today!
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 40s coast, 50s inland. Wind light E to SE.
TONIGHT: Clouding up. Lows around 40. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Overcast with periods of rain. Highs around 50. Wind SE 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to W late.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs around 40.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny and breezy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of rain showers late. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (APRIL 1-5)…
Mild with rain showers April 1. Cooler with a late rain shower April 2. Colder with a possible snow shower April 3. Look for dry but possibly mostly cloudy weather and below normal temperatures for April 4 then fair and chilly April 5.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 6-10)…
Transition from chilly to milder likely with unsettled weather early to mid period.

8:48AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 26-30)…
A quick entry to start off this “beautiful” Easter Weekend and with a reminder of how the weather can often be immune to prediction. What a couple days ago looked like about as good a weekend as you can get in March, is not going to turn out quite that way. Don’t fear, we’re not about to have a wash-out of a weekend, but we’ll have to pay the price for part of it with low cloudiness due to a poorly-forecast, or not-forecast-at all low level inversion that’s enabling a blanket of stratus clouds to dominate this morning, and then a high pressure centered a little further east and north than originally anticipated, allowing more of an ocean air flow to dominate even into Sunday. This changes the game for the coast, which because of the chilly ocean will not be nearly as warm as it may have been with a land breeze. Perhaps Mother Nature is saying “you’ve had it too good so I’m taking one away”. After a fairly “easy” Winter and a very mild stretch for much of the last few months, save for brief interruptions, can we really expect the weather in New England to be perfect? It doesn’t matter what it has been like, or what you want, it’s going to do what it does. But that said, though there is a price to pay for living next to the giant salt water puddle otherwise known as the Atlantic Ocean, this weekend won’t be all that bad. Once we get beyond it, we’ll have the classic “rainy Monday” as low pressure traverses the region. But this progressive nature of the pattern will allow this system to fly right along and be out of here by Tuesday, which will be windy and chilly. This will be followed by a quick warm-up and fair weather on Wednesday as high pressure sinks to the southeast of the region.
TODAY: Cloudy to partly sunny through midday. Partly cloudy this afternoon. Highs in the 40s, coolest coast. Wind light N to E.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind light E.
SUNDAY – EASTER: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 40s coast, 50s inland. Wind light E to SE.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clouding up. Lows around 40. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Overcast with periods of rain. Highs around 50. Wind SE 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to W late.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs around 40.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny and breezy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)…
Looks like a relatively warm ending to March for the final day of the month, exception likely being Cape Cod and the South Coast. Watching an approaching front from the west that may bring a rain shower threat. More likely that a system brings mild and showery weather for the first day of April. Transition to colder during the April 2-3 weekend. The passage of a trough and cold front may bring a few periods of clouds and perhaps a rain shower on April 2 and even snow shower on April 3 during this transition. Look for dry but possibly mostly cloudy weather and below normal temperatures for April 4.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 5-9)…
Below normal temperatures with a mid period risk of some precipitation – odds favor wet over white, but cannot rule out late season snowflakes in some areas based on the expected pattern.

7:28AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 25-29)…
Unsettled day as we pass briefly through the warm sector of a low pressure area passing north of the region. Enough cold air is around this morning in southern NH for a few icy spots where drizzle is occurring but that will fade quickly as it warms up later in the morning. Preceding the warmth is also areas of fog. Numerous rain showers will cross the region at midday with a cold front from the west, after which some partial improvement will take place during this afternoon, though there may be one more round of showers with a final trough late in the day. High pressure builds in for the weekend, but its center being closer to the Canadian Maritimes means that the influence of the ocean may be a little more prominent along and close to the coast, at least in terms of temperature, and possibly in terms of some low cloudiness at times, during the weekend. The next larger scale low pressure system arrives Monday with a good chance of rain, then departs Tuesday and introduces a brief shot of colder air.
TODAY: Cloudy through early afternoon with area of fog and drizzle into mid morning, some freezing drizzle southern NH, then rain showers likely from west to east later morning through early afternoon. Breaking clouds but still a chance of passing rain showers mid afternoon on. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. Wind light variable early becoming S 10-20 MPH then shifting to W later in the day with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 30s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny through some lower clouds may be more dominant over Cape Cod mainly afternoon. Highs in the 40s, coolest coast. Wind NE to E 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy, but may turn mostly cloudy near eastern coastal areas. Lows in the 30s. Wind light E to SE.
SUNDAY – EASTER: Low clouds may persist in some coastal areas with sun further inland. Highs upper 40s coast to near 60 well inland. Wind light SE to S.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.
TUESDAY: Clearing and windy. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)…
Fair with a warming trend March 30-31. Chance of rain showers with mild air April 1. Fair and cooler April 2. Chance of a rain or snow shower and colder April 3.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 4-8)…
Mainly dry with below normal temperatures early in the period then a threat of some precipitation later in the period.

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 24-28)…
No big changes today. We’re on the chilly side of the front now, but low level moisture has been lacking some some areas see a touch of sun to start the day, though clouds will dominate with a gusty northeasterly wind today. The warmer air tries to return later tonight and Friday with some wet weather, and still a final front from the west will push it all away during Friday night, setting up a nice weekend governed by high pressure, of which we’ll be on the cool side Saturday and warmer side Sunday. But all good things must end, and our well-timed 2-day fair spell will be replaced by more unsettled weather as another low pressure area arrives Monday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Patchy drizzle developing. Highs upper 30s to middle 40s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of drizzle. Chance of rain, especially late at night. Lows middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind E 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy with rain showers likely at times. Highs middle 50s to near 60. Wind SE to S early, then S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Lows middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs middle 40s to lower 50s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Increasing clouds late. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs middle 50s to lower 60s.
MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)…
Progressive pattern continues as systems move along. Fair, windy, colder March 29. Fair and milder March 30-31. Mild with rain showers April 1. Fair and colder April 2.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 3-7)…
Trending colder. A couple passing systems may bring some rain/mix/snow.

2:48AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 23-27)…
A front will hang around the area through Friday. This front, stretching west to east across the region, separates mild air to the south from cold air to the north. The mild side will win out today over southeastern New England as the front is north of the region. The front will then drop to the south tonight and Thursday, allowing the colder air to take over. After a few isolated rain showers in the mild air today, the approach of the front will generate some rain especially in northern MA and southern NH this evening and tonight, which will turn to ice pellets and snow in some locations as colder air moves in. The moisture should lift away during Thursday as the upper support moves to the north, even though the surface front settles to the south. A north to northeast air flow will just result in patchy drizzle during Thursday. A wave of low pressure will pass northwest of the region by later Friday, and this will at last drag a stronger front from the west across the region. This will result in a push of milder air and a period of wet weather Friday, then a return to drier weather by Friday night/Saturday as high pressure builds in. This high will then settle to the south and allow for a mild Easter Sunday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the 50s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain northern MA and southern NH, mixing with then changing to sleet and snow mainly far northern MA northward with some minor accumulation of sleet/snow possible by dawn. Lows in the 30s. Wind shifting to N then NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Lingering very light sleet and/or snow southern NH and far northern MA, a possible very light mix of rain/sleet/snow east central MA early, then just patchy light drizzle Highs from the middle and upper 30s southern NH and northeastern MA to 40s elsewhere. Wind N to NE 10-20 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy with rain showers likely through midday then partial clearing west to east later. Lows middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs middle 50s to near 60.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Lows middle 30s to lower 40s. Highs middle 40s to lower 50s.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs middle 50s to lower 60s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)…
Progressive pattern with a chance of rain March 28, fair/windy/colder March 29 then milder March 30-31. Risk of rain showers April 1 as the next system arrives.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 2-6)…
Trending colder. A couple passing systems may bring some rain/mix/snow.

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 22-26)…
The departing cold air delivery northwest wind carries with it a few flurries that may briefly visit a few locations early today before the wind shifts to the west, sun dominates, and the morning chill fades as the late March sun climbs in the sky – not a bad day at all. Then we turn unsettled and this will happen as a front drops down from the north, slowly enough to allow much of the region to remain on the mild side of it Wednesday albeit with lots of cloudiness. A few areas of light rain may traverse the region as this front drops south of us and allows much cooler air in and a continued overcast Thursday. The front tries to come back with aid of an approaching low pressure Friday, which tracks north of the region. At this time I think the front will have just enough push to move back to the north and allow the mild air to return, but with wet weather. Finally, a cold front from the west pushes it all out of here by the end of Friday, setting up a nice, but cooler Saturday.
TODAY: Partly cloudy with isolated snow showers until mid morning, then mostly sunny. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW shifting to WSW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 30s evening, rising back to the 40s overnight. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light rain showers in the afternoon. Highs in the 50s. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH shifting to NW late.
THURSDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain daytime. Better chance of rain night. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Best chance of rain morning. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 50s.
SATURDAY: Sun and clouds. Lows in the 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 27-31)…
Fair and milder March 27 (Easter Sunday). Chance of rain March 28. Fair and cooler March 29, milder March 30-31.

DAYS 11-15 (APRIL 1-5)…
A turn to colder than normal with potential unsettled weather which may include not just rain but some mix/snow as well.

7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 21-25)…
This will be a quick update due to time constraints on my part this morning but will expand on it in comments later today. Winter weather event ongoing, behaving as expected, and will wind down slowly this morning. Clearing may be interrupted by a trough that brings a few passing rain showers later today. Return to fair weather for a day Tuesday before another period of unsettled weather with a front in the vicinity mid to late week, and it looks like the cooler side of the front is going to have the stronger push.
TODAY: Snow, some mix/rain Cape Cod, tapering off gradually this morning. General accumulations of snow 3-6 inches but less on Cape Cod and a slight risk of a couple amounts in excess of 6 inches possible. Partial clearing but a passing rain shower possible mid or late afternoon. Late-day highs in upper 30s. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH except 15-30 MPH Cape Cod region, shifting to the W by the end of the day.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower to middle 40s. Wind W 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 35-45. Highs 45-55.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy. A few episodes of rain//mix. Lows in the 30s. Highs upper 30s to middle 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 26-30)…
Improving weather March 26-27, turning milder. Wet weather may return mid period before fair and cooler to colder late in the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 31-APRIL 4)…
Pattern looks colder than normal and potentially stormy. Not sure on this yet.

7:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 20-24)…
The Vernal Equinox, the astronomical start of Spring, occurred at 12:30AM. But you know that doesn’t mean too much with regards to weather. It snows in Spring here, and this will be proven nicely in just a matter of hours. Today, I’ll spare you the long editorials and just say that the various array of computer models, which have had so much difficulty putting the pieces of this atmospheric puzzle together, have finally come to some kind of agreement, and for the meteorologists that survived the process, we have a reasonable feel for what is going to transpire as a complex low pressure system tries to get organized as it tracks northeastward, passing not too far southeast of southern New England by early Monday. Yes there will be some rain involved somewhere, and there will be a variation in snowfall amounts based on whether or not any rain occurs and the location of heaviest snow bands associated with the strengthening system. The expected results of this will be reflected in the forecast that follows. Brief cold is expected to linger behind the storm, and then the transition back toward milder air begins anew by midweek, marked by another period of unsettled weather as a warm front moves in but struggles to move through.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind light N to NE.
TONIGHT: Clouding over. Snow developing south to north, may mix with rain Nantucket and outer Cape Cod. Lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s.
MONDAY: Overcast with snow tapering off from west to east morning, still may be mixed with rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, then clearing during the afternoon. Snow accumulation 3-6 inches in most areas, but a few locations in central MA to southwestern NH may see under 3 inches, as could outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, and a few locations south of Boston may see greater than 6 inches. Highs in the 30s. Wind N to NW 10-20 MPH interior, 15-30 MPH coast, strongest Cape Cod, with higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows from the middle 10s to lower 20s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty. Wind chill near to below 10 at times.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs from the upper 30s to lower 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of light rain/mix. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain showers. Lows in the 30s. Highs 45-55.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 25-29)…
Push of warmer air now looks brief March 25 and may be accompanied by rain showers as a cold front approaches. Back and forth weather for the remainder of the period with fair weather March 26, unsettled March 27-28, and fair again March 29.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 30-APRIL 3)…
Progressive pattern. Frequent temperature changes and precipitation threats.

8:52AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 19-23)…
The Vernal Equinox occurs early Sunday morning, and for those who still don’t know exactly what that means, it’s when Winter turns to Spring. We all know around here that it doesn’t automatically mean we leave Winter, harsh or not, behind us and see nothing but sun and warmth. Spring in New England can bring that, but more often than not brings a variety of weather ranging from the pleasant to the lingering feel of Winter, though one of the more common feels in Spring, especially if you live near the coast, is ocean-boosted chill. On this final day of astronomical Winter, it will be the feel of Winter we have as a pretty cold air mass has been delivered to us from Canada, but this is not like a mid Winter cold, and the strong March sunshine will offset the existing air mass, as well as the fact that it won’t be too windy. Net result, a bright, chilly day, that doesn’t feel that bad if you’re outside. The next order of business is the storm threat, which as you know, we’ve been eyeing for a long while. The error lies not in the fact we knew there would be a storm threat in this window around the Equinox, as it is indeed there. As I always say, it comes down to details in the end, as far as the actual impact. You can still have identified a storm threat and have the storm pass just too far away to impact you directly, or you can get a storm full-on, or anything in between. If you’re incorrect in your initial assessment as a forecaster, there will be no threat at all. This is not the case this time. The ultimate result, as far as southern New England is concerned, is the storm will impact the region, just not in a major way. Everyone will see cloudiness, most of us will see snow, but few of us will see the kind of snow that has to be moved around to make travel easier. That appears as if it will be confined to the southeastern reaches of our area, as the storm threat is coming in the form of a couple loosely connected areas of low pressure which are never given the full opportunity to join together, forming a larger system that would have had a greater reach and a more northward track. And it is even more complex than just 2 low pressure areas. There are no less than 4 pieces of energy, which as of this morning, are still hundreds of miles apart, that would need to come together to make the “worst-case scenario” occur. As meteorologists (and some enthusiasts) we only have past experience, current information, and human-programmed computer guidance to rely on. And in some cases, the latter is going to reveal its limitations. This is one of those cases. It is generally, at medium range, a widespread model error across the board. We can argue which models are better or worse, and it’s obvious that a couple picked up on this new southward trend sooner than others, but that’s not to say they would perform any better or worse on a situation slightly different than this. There is never anything truly 100% certain in the science of meteorology, and though we’ll learn from this situation and hope to apply some of this knowledge going forward, the truth is we’ll never see this exact set-up again, and that is both the beauty and ugliness of this science that I and many others love so much. So now that you know my view on all of this, we go forward and finish the forecast, and the adjustment has been made to push the snow area further southeastward with minor to borderline moderate amounts (break-down below). Timing of the snow will be mainly Sunday night to early Monday. The systems all push away during Monday and help deliver a short-lived shot of colder air for Tuesday. A warm front will move into the region Wednesday, bringing cloudiness and possibly some precipitation with it.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind light N.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows in the middle 10s to lower 20s. Wind light N.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy with variable high clouds from the south and scattered lower clouds from the ocean. Highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind light NE to E.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow develops south to north but may barely make it north central MA and southwestern NH, and will be steadiest and moderate at times mainly over southeastern MA. Accumulations from 1 inch or less north central MA into south central NH, 1-3 inches Boston area, 3-6 inches southeatsern MA. A mix with rain may hold accumulations down under 3 inches outer Cape and Islands. Lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH except 15-25 MPH with higher gusts Cape Cod region.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy morning with any snow ending. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs in the middle 30s to lower 40s. Wind NE to N 10-20 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs middle 30s to lower 40s.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain/mix. Lows upper 20s to middle 30s. Highs in the 40s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 24-28)…
Milder with only a slight risk of spotty rain March 24, leading to fair and warmer weather March 25-26. Cooling trend and becoming unsettled March 27-28.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 29-APRIL 2)…
Progressive pattern of frequent changes still looks likely with variable temperatures and at least a couple threats of precipitation.

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 18-22)…
The calendar flips from winter to spring Sunday but the next 5 days will show winter’s stubbornness to depart, which is ironic given we’ve been in a mild pattern much of the time since late February, so it’s more like a brief return to winter, or a “winterlude” if you will allow the expression. It all starts with a cold front passing through the region today. It’s still relatively mild to start the day but a good push of cold air is coming, and the front that introduces it will set off some rain showers mainly midday and afternoon from north to south. There may be a brief snow shower in a few locations behind the front but most areas will dry out by evening and in will flow the cold, which will get established as high pressure builds north of the region on Saturday. By Sunday, low pressure coming out of the southeastern US will make a run up the East Coast, and as always, the evolution and track of the low will determine the details for this area. I’m not ready for rain/snow lines and snow accumulation numbers as of this post, but the general idea will be for the greatest chance of rain/mix will be coastal areas and especially Cape Cod, the greatest risk of snow without mixing will be over interior MA and southern NH, and the time frame for this will be between later Sunday afternoon and sometime Monday morning. The fine tuning will begin in the comments section below and with an updated post this evening if necessary and certainly by tomorrow morning’s post. Regardless of storm details, it its wake we will see a reinforcing shot of cold air into Tuesday.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy morning. Lots of clouds this afternoon with scattered rain showers and only a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Decreasing clouds and increasing sun later in the day. Highs in the 50s but start to fall fairly quickly by evening. Wind W increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW by late day.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty, diminishing overnight.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs in the 30s. Wind light N.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 10s to middle 20s. Wind light N to NE.
SUNDAY: Clouding over. Snow developing south to north afternoon, may be mixed with rain over Cape Cod and immediate coast. Highs in the 30s. Wind NE to N increasing to 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY: Snow/mix ending after potential significant snow accumulation. Temperatures in the 30s.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 30s.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 23-27)…
Risk of light rain/mix March 23, not as cold. Fair and warmer March 24-25. Unsettled weather and a cooling trend March 26-27.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 28-APRIL 1)…
Up and down temperatures with passing systems bringing a few precipitation threats.

7:12AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 17-21)…
The volatility of March will be apparent during this 5-day period, starting with a mild St. Patrick’s Day which includes the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail this afternoon as we get relatively warm at the surface and have cold air aloft, which is an unstable set up. A strong cold front passes on Friday with a few rain and eventually snow showers, gusty wind, but most importantly bringing a delivery of cold air that will last through the weekend. After fair weather Saturday, a storm system that has traveled cross country will make a run up the East Coast late Sunday into that cold air, departing early Monday, but in the process of its passage may leave a significant snowfall over at least part of, if not most of the region. With the event toward the end of this period, details are still not possible to discern, but fine-tuning will be in progress throughout so you have as accurate a lead-up and final call as possible. In the mean time just be aware of the strong possibility of a significant winter storm as spring officially gets underway.
TODAY: Lots of clouds and areas of fog to start, then variably cloudy including partial sunshine, leading to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms after 2PM, some of which may include small hail. Highs range from near 50 South Coast to the lower 60s interior MA/NH. Wind SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Also, briefly strong wind gusts are possible near any showers and thunderstorms.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A lingering rain shower possible early. Lows in the 40s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers mainly late morning through mid afternoon, may end as snow showers in some areas. Temperatures steady in the 40s in the morning falling to the 30s in the afternoon. Wind W 15-25 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to N.
SATURDAY: Sunny. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
SUNDAY: Clouding up. Snow possible by late day and night, possible mix coast. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.
MONDAY: Snow/mix ending, breaking clouds, gusty wind. Temperatures in the 30s but may fall to the 20s late.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 22-26)…
Windy/cold/dry March 22. Breezy and milder with fair weather March 23. Unsettled periods of weather March 24-26 with variable temperatures.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 27-31)…
Progressive pattern of changing air masses and periods of unsettled weather during the final days of March.