8:10AM
DAYS 1-5 (AUGUST 12-16)…
Complex forecast as a frontal boundary gets involved in the forecast during the next several days. Its position will make a big difference in local weather. It looks like today the entire southern New England region will still be in the heat, like yesterday, as the front will be to the north, but a little wave of low pressure moving along it, and off the coast of Maine by evening, combined with a little nose of high pressure extending southeastward from eastern Canada, will push this front south southwestward across southern NH and into eastern MA tonight into Saturday. It will come to a stop somewhere in a line from southern MA or northern RI back across east central MA to southwestern NH most likely, hanging there for a good part of Saturday before returning back northeastward across the region by early Sunday. So areas that end up on the other side of the front after it passes will be cooler Saturday, while areas that are not reached by the front will stay rather hot, and then the heat will be in general control over most of the region again by Sunday as the front moves back the other way. But another wave of low pressure moving along the boundary sometimes between Sunday night and the middle of Monday will pull the front southward again, but this time being more orientated in a “traditional” way so that it comes through from northwest to southeast. End result? We should get into a slice of drier air by late Monday or certainly Tuesday. As for showers/thunderstorms during this period, that is a complex puzzle as well. I think the area as a whole will fall short of getting greatly beneficial rain, but some areas will see at least one round of decent showers and thunderstorms. Details will have to be worked out on a day-by-day basis, so I can say that today’s activity will be isolated to scattered, can occur any time, but will favor the afternoon to early evening, when any storms that occur can be strong to severe, so keep an eye out for changing conditions. Saturday’s greatest storm risk will be closer to the South Coast and back through central MA and southwestern NH where the hot/muggy air is, with more cloudiness but less rain risk further north and east. Sunday will carry a risk of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms as the region gets back into the hot/muggy air. We’ll have to see if a more organized area of showers/storms occurs at some point Sunday night and/or Monday, depending on the timing of the front as it makes its second southward push. A bubble of high pressure should bring a break in the action by Tuesday, based on current timing. Again please check for updates as timing of location of the front, and resultant showers/storms is hard to pin point. Lastly, for late tonight and early Saturday, which is the second peak period for the Perseid Meteor Shower, we will have to keep an eye on cloudiness that may still be around from afternoon / evening thunderstorms. I think most of it should exit, but then there will be the issue of possible low cloudiness coming down from the north and northeast with the passage of the front during the late evening and overnight hours. So no area is a lock for clear sky, but some areas may end up ok for several hours. Updates will be posted in the comments section as well as on the WHW Facebook page.
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy with very isolated showers and a slight risk of thunderstorms through midday. Partly sunny during the afternoon with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Any storms may be locally strong to severe. Very humid. Highs 75-82 Nantucket, 82-90 South Coast, 90-97 elsewhere. Wind SW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with a risk of showers/thunderstorms early evening. Partly cloudy to mostly clear late evening. Overnight, possible deck of low clouds at least coastal NH and eastern MA but may spread inland somewhat by dawn. Patchy fog. Very humid. Lows 62-70 in areas that saw rain late-day and evening as well as coastal NH and northeastern MA, 70-77 urban areas and any areas in southern MA, RI, and interior NH that did not see late-day rain.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy southeastern NH through northeastern and east central MA with a risk of a few showers. Elsewhere variably cloudy with scattered showers/thunderstorms, some of which may be strong. Humid. Highs 75-82 coastal NH and eastern MA, 83-92 elsewhere. Wind NE 5-15 MPH over southeastern NH and eastern MA, S to SW 5-15 MPH in areas further west and southwest.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of a few showers. Isolated heavier thunderstorms possible central MA to southwestern NH. Humid. Lows 62-72, warmest far west and southwest of Boston. Wind variable up to 10 MPH becoming SE to S in most areas overnight.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 75-80 Nantucket, 80-88 South Coast, 88-95 elsewhere. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, favoring the morning. Humid. Lows 64-74. Highs 77-85.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Less humid. Lows 60-70, warmest urban areas. Highs 78-86.
DAYS 6-10 (AUGUST 17-21)…
More humid with showers possible August 17. Next shower risk late August 19 to early August 20. Drier at the end of the period. Temperatures near to above normal.
DAYS 11-15 (AUGUST 22-26)…
Still looking for another build of heat/humidity with few chances for showers/storms.