7:18AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)…
High pressure will bring pleasant weather through Friday. The weekend will start ok with fair weather, some increasing clouds, and a warm-up Saturday after a cool start. Sunday will be an unsettled day as a cold front slowly moves through, producing lots of clouds and scattered showers. Some cloudiness and a risk of a shower lingers Monday as the front never completely makes it through and falls apart over the region.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 67-74. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-54, coolest interior valleys, mildest urban areas. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 40-50. Highs 70-78.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 58-64. Highs 68-75.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 60-66. Highs 70-77.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)…
Mainly dry weather during the period. Temperatures somewhat variable but averaging above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 25-29)…
Overall pattern remains dry and warm.

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)…
A brief shot of September heat and humidity today will be cut off at the pass by a cold front, which during its afternoon passage will produce some showers and thunderstorms, a few of which may be strong. Keep a close eye on the weather today. Not expecting widespread severe storms but any storm may produce strong and possibly damaging wind. After this gets out of here by evening, it’s back to cooler and dry weather for Thursday and Friday followed by a slight warm-up Saturday. This will lead to the next shower threat on Sunday as the next cold front arrives.
TODAY: Sunshine into afternoon, then variably cloudy with scattered showers/thunderstorms. Any storms may produce strong wind gusts. More humid. Highs 78-85 South Coast, 85-91 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW late in the day.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 50-55 northwest suburbs to 55-60 Boston to Cape Cod. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 68-75. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 45-55. Highs 68-75.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 40-50. Highs 70-78.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 58-64. Highs 68-75.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)…
Mainly dry weather during the period. Temperatures somewhat variable but averaging above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 24-28)…
Overall pattern remains dry and warm.

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)…
High pressure sinks south of New England today with sunshine and warming air. It briefly heats up and gets a little more humid Wednesday ahead of a cold front, which accompanied by a shower or thunderstorm, will put a quick end to the warm up and introduce a shot of cooler and drier air for Thursday and Friday as high pressure moves back in. This high begins to drop to the south allowing Saturday to warm up a little more after a cool start.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 58-66. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Early-day patchy fog in valley areas. Sunshine into afternoon. Late-day clouds with a risk of showers/thunderstorms. More humid. Highs 81-88 except cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH and gusty, shifting to NW late in the day with the passage of the front.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-60. Highs 68-75.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 45-55. Highs 68-75.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 40-50. Highs 70-78.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)…
Risk of a few showers with a frontal passage September 18. Mainly dry September 19-22. Temperatures above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 23-27)…
Overall pattern remains dry and warm.

7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)…
High pressure brings mild and dry weather today then sinks to the south of New England resulting in a warmer day on Tuesday. A cold front will drop through the region from northwest to southeast later Wednesday, preceded by a little bit of heat and humidity, and accompanied by a few showers and thunderstorms. Behind that front, a new high pressure area brings a shot of refreshing air from Canada for late week.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 73-80. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Patchy ground fog possible near swamps and ponds and in valleys. Lows 54-60. Wind light S to SW.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 77-84. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Early-day patchy fog in valley areas. Sunshine into afternoon. Late-day clouds with a risk of showers/thunderstorms. More humid. Lows 61-68. Highs 81-88 except cooler South Coast.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 54-61. Highs 68-75.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 48-55. Highs 68-75.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)…
High pressure dominates with fair weather September 17. Warm with a risk of a few showers as a weak frontal system passes September 18. Dry and very warm September 19. A few showers/thunderstorms September 20. Fair and cooler September 21.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 22-26)…
Overall pattern remains dry and warm.

7:42AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)…
A cold front moving across the area will produce a broken to solid line of showers and thunderstorms from west to east from mid morning to early afternoon for a period of about 15 to 30 minutes as it goes by. The line may produce downpours, strong and gusty winds, and some lightning. Timing should break down about like this…
Around 8AM: Western MA to northwestern CT
Around 9AM: Connecticut Valley area.
Around 10AM: Central MA to central CT and southwestern NH.
Around 11AM: Southeastern NH including Seacoast, Worcester to western suburbs of Boston, northeastern CT to northwestern RI.
Around NOON: MA North Shore, Boston to Providence corridor.
Around 1PM: Southeastern MA to lower Cape Cod.
Around 2PM: Outer Cape Cod.
Once this front has cleared the area, the weather will be much improved to end the day and then high pressure will take over for early in the week with fair weather. A cold front brings the next shower threat on Wednesday followed by a push of cooler/drier air and a bit of a fall feel by Thursday.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy through midday with showers/thunderstorms pushing west to east across the region (see timing above). Clearing west to east following this. Less humid this afternoon. Highs 76-83. Wind S to SW up to 20 MPH with higher gusts possible, shifting to W.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60, coolest in southern NH and north central MA. Wind W up to 15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Highs 77-84.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of midday and afternoon showers/thunderstorms. More humid. Lows 60-68. Highs 78-86.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 50-58. Highs 68-76.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)…
High pressure will be in control September 16-18 with fair weather, cool mornings September 16-17, slow warming trend each afternoon through September 18. By September 19 a shot of heat/humidity precedes the next front and there may be a shower/t-storm threat. Drier weather expected at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 21-25)…
Overall pattern remains dry with above normal temperatures.

8:41AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)…
Let’s play warm front / cold front! Today is warm front day. The front that slogged through as a cold front on Friday and barely dropped the humidity while allowing it to get quite hot was technically labeled as a cold front, but did not do much in the way of delivering any refreshing air, nor did it bring anything resembling beneficial rain. Our warm front / cold front combination this weekend may do slightly better in the rain department, but stress the word “slightly” here. Again, we’ll not receive a beneficial rain over the entire region. After a warm front that just brings a few scattered showers as it pushes through today, a cold front coming through at the “wrong time”, i.e., before maximum heating, on Sunday will muster a few showers and downpours, but again leave many areas high and dry. Once this front gets offshore Sunday afternoon, drier air will arrive in more force along with fair weather that lasts through Tuesday, courtesy of high pressure. As this high slips to the south Tuesday and Wednesday, a warm-up will ensue, but just as it’s about to get that late-season hot/humid feel, it will be cut off at the pass later Wednesday by a stronger cold front from the north, which will bring a shower and thunderstorm threat.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny – greatest chance of sunshine south of Boston. Isolated to scattered showers but most areas dry. Increasing humidity. Highs 74-81. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Isolated showers overnight. Humid. Lows 61-68. Wind SE to S up to 15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy through midday with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms including a few possible downpours. Clearing trend west to east afternoon. Decreasing humidity. Highs 76-83. Wind S to SW up to 20 MPH with higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 53-60, coolest in southern NH and north central MA. Wind W up to 15 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 75-82. Wind N up to 10 MPH becoming variable.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 55-62. Highs 77-84.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of midday and afternoon showers/thunderstorms. More humid. Lows 60-68. Highs 78-86.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)…
Shot of cooler/drier air Thursday September 15 with fair weather. High pressure will be in control September 16-18 with fair weather, cool mornings September 16-17, slow warming trend each afternoon through September 18. By September 19 a shot of heat/humidity precedes the next front and there may be a shower/t-storm threat – of course timing uncertain this far in advance.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 20-24)…
Overall pattern remains dry with above normal temperatures.

7:33AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)…
A cold front is moving through early today and will slow down and come to a stop near the South Coast during the day. It is there that the humidity will hang on highest while elsewhere it drops off gradually during the day. The trade-off will be that it will turn out on the hot side this afternoon. After some early-day showers depart, another pop up shower or thunderstorm may occur closer to the front near the South Coast this afternoon or evening. This front will then push northward across the region overnight and Saturday morning as a warm front, and may trigger a few additional showers. The front pushes back to the north during Saturday and a cold front approaches from the west at night then passes by Sunday morning with yet another shower threat. You’d think with all these shower threats we’d be getting some decent drought relief, but outside of a few downpours in isolated locations, it’s not likely to happen regionwide anytime soon. And this will be solidified by the fact high pressure builds in later Sunday through Tuesday with more dry weather.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy with scattered showers and patchy fog through mid morning. Partial clearing South Coast, sunnier elsewhere, midday and afternoon, but an additional late-day shower or thunderstorm is possible near the South Coast. Remaining humid South Coast, lowering humidity elsewhere. Highs from 78-85 South Coast, 86-92 elsewhere. Wind W up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Risk of a few showers. Patchy fog. More humid. Lows 64-71, warmest urban areas. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers morning. Partly sunny afternoon. Humid. Highs 76-84, coolest South Coast. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Risk of a few showers overnight. Patchy fog. Humid. Lows 62-68, warmest urban areas. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers morning. Mostly sunny afternoon. Less humid. Highs 74-82. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 52-60. Highs 75-82.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 50-58. Highs 78-85.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)…
Very warm September 14 with a passing shower or thunderstorm possible with a cold front approaching. Fair, cooler/drier September 15-16. Fair, warming up September 17-18.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 19-23)…
Brief threat of showers early or mid period, otherwise mainly dry. Temperatures generally above normal.

7:29AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)…
As the low pressure area formerly known as Hermine finishes its spin-down and drifts across Cape Cod as a trough today, the humidity it brought into the region will hang around until a front crosses the region tonight. This front will produce only a few isolated showers and thunderstorms at most, and will drop the dew point but allow the heat to return on Friday. Another boundary from the north will drop down Friday night and early Saturday with a little area of high pressure to the north, turning the wind more to the northeast and east and cooling things down somewhat for Saturday, but this front will try to come back at night and then finally another cold front from the west will sweep it all offshore with again no more than a few showers by early Sunday. High pressure builds in later Sunday through Monday with fair weather.
TODAY: Areas of fog this morning. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Humid. Highs 75-83, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 62-70. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Highs 80-92, coolest Cape Cod. Wind W 10-20 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-70. Highs 82-92, coolest South Coast.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers morning. Lows 62-70. Highs 78-85.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 55-62. Highs 75-82.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)…
Mainly dry, warm weather during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 18-22)…
Mainly dry and warm pattern continues.

7:39AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)…
The post-tropical storm known as Hermine that has hung around forever and is no longer having advisories issued on it because it’s so beyond tropical it’s almost funny is still in its dissipating stage and toss additional showers at southeastern New England for a while today as it continues to fall apart over the waters just south of New England today then drift across Cape Cod and the Islands Thursday. Humidity will be fairly high through Thursday then drop off Friday as a front pushes it out but lets the heat in. The weekend will see another cold front pass early Sunday with only a risk of a shower but otherwise mainly dry and fairly warm weather will dominate.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Humid. Scattered showers. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Humid. Lows 60-68. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Humid. Highs 75-83, coolest coast. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Less humid. Lows 62-70. Highs 80-92, coolest South Coast.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-70. Highs 82-92, coolest South Coast.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of showers morning. Lows 62-70. Highs 78-85.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)…
Mainly dry, warm weather during this period.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 17-21)…
Mainly dry and warm pattern continues.

7:35AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)…
The post-tropical storm known as Hermine is in its dissipating stage and will basically just fall apart over the waters just south of New England during the next 2 days while producing episodes of showers over southeastern and eastern areas. The strongest winds took place during Monday with gusts of 30 to 60 MPH, strongest along the South Coast. Some damage occurred, mainly downed trees which lead to some power outages. So, 2 more days of unsettled weather as the storm dissipates, then by Thursday we transition back to warmth and humidity. And going a step further, summer heat returns for the end of the week.
TODAY: Mainly cloudy. Episodic showers and some drizzle. Highs 66-76, coolest coast. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Episodic showers. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 60-66. Wind E to NE 5-15 MPH, higher gusts coast.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs 75-82, coolest coast. Wind NE to N 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Humid. Lows 60-68. Highs 78-86, coolest coast.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 62-70. Highs 80-92, coolest South Coast.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-70. Highs 82-92, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)…
A few showers/thunderstorms possible with a passing front September 11. Fair September 12-15. Temperatures above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 16-20)…
Mainly dry and warm pattern continues.

7:45AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 5-9)…
(Apologies for having to edit to add this discussion, albeit very short, hours later.)
Post-tropical storm Hermine will do a cyclonic loop south of New England and the contrast between it and high to the north will tighten the wind field and cause more wind today into Tuesday. As Hermine weakens and eventually falls apart midweek, just some leftover cloudiness and a few showers are possible. By late in the week, the feel of summer returns.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers afternoon southeastern and eastern MA as well as RI. More humid. Highs 68-77. Wind E 5-15 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH coast with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers/downpours. Humid. Lows 60-68. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH east coast, 25-35 MPH south coast, with higher gusts especially South Coast.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Humid. Highs 68-78, coolest South Coast. Wind E to NE 15-30 MPH and gusty, diminishing gradually later in the day.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers possible. Humid. Breezy at times. Lows 60-68. Highs 75-83, coolest coastal areas.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-68. Highs 78-86, coolest South Coast.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 62-70. Highs 80-92, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 10-14)…
A few showers/thunderstorms possible during the September 10-11 period but likely just isolated and mainly rain-free during this time. Generally dry September 12-14. Warm to hot conditions expected.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 15-19)…
Pattern will favor limited shower threats and continued mainly above normal temperatures.

2:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 4-8)…
Southern New England will be under the influence of the post tropical system affectionately known as Hermine for the next several days as the center wobbles around offshore of the Delmarva and southern New Jersey, south of New England. High pressure has prevented this system from charging across the waters south to east of New England. It will not be until the end of this 5-day forecast period that the much-decayed center of the system will finally wander off to the east and northeast on its way to the storm graveyard. In the mean time, it will still be fairly strong for a couple days and create lots of rough surf along the New England South Coast, with agitated surf but not as rough on the eastern shores. Though winds will be strong and gusty at times in southern areas, especially near the South Coast, significant wind damage is not likely. I continue to think that rain will be a minor to moderate part of the system, with bands of showers coming across the region in the storm’s fairly broad circulation. Though some downpours are possible, do not expect a widespread, heavy, beneficial rain. It will not evolve into a situation of day after day of overcast and rain.
TODAY: Variably cloudy with most sun north and west of Boston, least sun Cape Cod. Highs 68-75 Cape Cod and South Coast, 76-82 elsewhere, warmest well west of Boston. Wind E 5-15 MPH except up to 20 MPH at times Cape Cod.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of some rain Cape Cod, southeastern MA, and RI. Lows 60-66. Wind E 5-15 MPH interior, 15-30 MPH with higher gusts in coastal areas, strongest Cape Cod and South Coast.
MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of scattered showers. A few downpours possible. Humid. Highs 68-77. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH coast, with higher gusts especially South Coast.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers. Humid. Windy at times, especially coastal areas. Lows 60-68. Highs 68-78, coolest South Coast.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers possible. Humid. Breezy at times. Lows 60-68. Highs 75-83, coolest coastal areas.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 62-68. Highs 78-86, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 9-13)…
A few showers/thunderstorms possible during the September 9-11 period but likely just isolated and mainly rain-free during this time. Generally dry September 12-13. Warm to hot conditions expected.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 14-18)…
Pattern will favor limited shower threats and continued mainly above normal temperatures.

9:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 3-7)…
Labor Day Weekend is underway and I know everyone’s attention has been on Hermine and the weather impacts wherever you have your plans for the weekend. The focus here will be southern New England as usual and I will keep this post short and concise. Hermine will finish its trek across the Carolinas and emerge back over water far south of New England, moving northeastward to a position east of the Mid Atlantic before milling around for a couple to a few days, probably through this 5-day forecast period. Though the location is more of a concern for the Mid Atlantic, where the greater impact will be, it will also have an impact on how much rain is able to work into southern New England, eventually. One thing we will not escape is a moderate impact from rough surf, especially along the South Coast by late in the weekend (later Sunday and Labor Day Monday), which may expand northward by Tuesday and Wednesday due to the fairly broad circulation of the storm and its time spent in the same general vicinity. As for rain, it’s hard to say for sure, but I think we’ll get through most of Sunday before anything may reach Cape Cod later in the day. After that I think we’ll see a couple waves of scattered showers versus solid rain, one potentially sometime on Monday and another one sometime Tuesday or Tuesday night, with isolated leftovers Wednesday. Again, this part of the forecast is lower confidence and will be refined.
** Please note that some wind gusts on Cape Cod and the immediate shoreline may be stronger at times than the range I have below, and also be aware that the rip current risk will be increasing at the beaches during the course of the weekend. **
TODAY: Sunshine filtered at times by high clouds. Highs 72-82, coolest coastal areas. Wind light variable becoming E 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 56-64, mildest in urban areas. Wind light E.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy with most sun north and west of Boston, least sun Cape Cod. Highs 68-75 Cape Cod and South Coast, 76-82 elsewhere, warmest well west of Boston. Wind E 5-15 MPH except up to 20 MPH at times Cape Cod.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of some rain Cape Cod, southeastern MA, and RI. Lows 60-66. Wind E 5-15 MPH interior, 15-30 MPH with higher gusts in coastal areas, strongest Cape Cod and South Coast.
MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of scattered showers. Humid. Highs 68-77. Wind E to NE 10-20 MPH inland and 15-30 MPH coast, with higher gusts especially South Coast.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers likely. Humid. Windy at times, especially coastal areas. Lows 60-68. Highs 68-78, coolest South Coast.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers possible. Humid. Breezy at times. Lows 60-68. Highs 72-80, coolest coastal areas.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 8-12)…
Other than brief shower threats from a couple passing disturbances, the trend after Hermine is gone will be for warmer to hotter weather.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 13-17)…
Pattern will favor limited shower threats and continued mainly above normal temperatures.

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 2-6)…
Cooler and drier air has arrived but it will be unstable enough today for some diurnal clouds to develop and possibly produce a few showers. Protective high pressure then sets up shop for the early part of the Labor Day Weekend and tries to hold against Hermine, which made landfall overnight as a category one hurricane in northwestern Florida. Hermine will traverse the Southeast today, the center just inland from the coast, then emerge over water this weekend where it will come to a halt and wobble around to the south of New England. The position, relative to New England, will determine the weather here. I am more strongly leaning toward a position far enough south to keep most rain south of the region, with just some chance of weakening rain areas migrating northward into southern areas Sunday and/or Monday. Will continue to refine this forecast. Hermine may remain just to the south through Tuesday as well.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 72-79. Wind N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-57, coolest interior valleys, mildest urban areas. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Sunshine filtered at times by high clouds. Highs 72-82, coolest coast. Wind light variable becoming E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain far southern areas mainly at night. Lows 58-65. Highs 70-80, coolest coastal areas.
MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain southern areas. Lows 58-65. Highs 68-77, coolest South Coast.
TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain southern areas. Lows 58-65. Highs 68-77, coolest South Coast.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 7-11)…
Watch the early period for a shower risk from both a tropical system from the south and a front from the west, then a drying trend with temperatures mostly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 12-16)…
Mostly dry weather. Temperatures above normal.

7:43AM

COMMENTARY…
A new month has arrived, and meteorological summer may be over, and tourist summer may be wrapping up after this coming long weekend, and “summer vacation” may have already ended or be just about to end for students of schools and colleges, but actual summer rolls on though in its late stages. And we know late summer means hurricane season, which really should be named tropical cyclone season, because we don’t just pay attention to these things when they are hurricanes only. We eye them (no pun intended) when they are tropical storms, tropical depressions, tropical waves, tropical disturbances, and “Invests”. We’re saturated by news of every cluster of cumulus in the tropics, where it might go, what it might do, who it might hit. For all of the overkill, it remains important to know, but let’s not kid ourselves. It’s not supposed to be so dramatic from a news standpoint. The weather can supply its own drama if you’re in the right place to see it. And this brings us to the long lasting saga of the system that was originally known as Invest 99L, then eventually Tropical Depression 9, and now Tropical Storm Hermine, which as of the writing of this blog entry, sits in the Gulf of Mexico, getting ready to make a run at the Florida Panhandle. As always I prefer my standard approach: Present the players and try to forecast their movement and impact. I am not going to pretend to know something that I don’t. So the forecast that follows this commentary will be the result of that approach. Read on to see.

DAYS 1-5 (SEPTEMBER 1-5)…
A cold front sluggishly moves through the region today with scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms, but once again the region is not about to see a widespread beneficial rain. By tonight, the dry and cooler air will arrive in force and establish itself on Friday, although a little instability leftover in the atmosphere on Friday will mean some diurnal cloudiness and possibly a few showers. And then comes the Labor Day Weekend, and as you well know by now, there is plenty of question as to how it will turn out here, since the tropical system stayed in the Gulf of Mexico long enough for the pattern around the eastern US to arrange itself in such a way that the system can impact a larger segment of the East Coast states than would have been the case if the system was moving a little more swiftly. What I do know is that high pressure will protect the region on Saturday, though some cloudiness may be on the increase. What I also know is that if the system is going to impact the region, Sunday-Monday seem like the most likely days. What I do not know is the extent of the possible impact. There is still enough evidence to keep the near-miss scenario in play, with the system coming to a halt just to the south and barely getting its rain shield in before it retreats back to the south. But other possibilities exist too, as the system will be interacting with high pressure on 3 sides and upper level low pressure nearby. For now, I’m going to play the storm-to-the-south but close enough for some minor to moderate impact especially in terms of high surf and the possibility of some rain and gusty wind, especially in southern areas. The forecast will be worded simply, but know there will be many updates to come.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs 73-81, coolest coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 56-63. Wind light N.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 72-79. Wind N 5-15 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 47-57, coolest interior valleys, mildest urban areas. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Sunshine filtered at times by high clouds. Highs 72-82, coolest coast. Wind light variable becoming E 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Thickening clouds. Risk of rain southern areas. Lows 58-65. Highs 68-75.
MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of rain southern areas. Lows 58-65. Highs 68-75.

DAYS 6-10 (SEPTEMBER 6-10)…
Watch the early period for a shower risk from both a tropical system from the south and a front from the west, then a drying trend with temperatures mostly above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (SEPTEMBER 11-15)…
Mostly dry weather. Temperatures above normal.