7:30AM
HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION…
My concern was the slow movement changing the game since it became apparent that the hurricane would be left behind by what could have moved it a lot more quickly to a position southeast of New England. And even though it remains to be seen if the hurricane does a complete loop after this run at (or along) the coast, it may still end up eventually passing far southeast of New England. The future track carries much uncertainty, so let’s back up and deal with the much more pressing immediate future, and that’s what I will focus on here.
For the last couple days, I have been cautiously optimistic that as dangerous as this hurricane is and will be, that the absolute worst-case scenario may be avoided. How that happens I will explain in a moment, but let me preface that with saying that absolutely everybody along the coast and nearby inland areas of Florida’s eastern coast up through Georgia, South Carolina, and at least southern parts of North Carolina should be prepared for the worst. Nature has the final say, so be ready, just in case.
I still feel that there is a chance that the core of Matthew may remain JUST offshore for much of, if not all of its trip by FL, GA, SC, and NC. That does not mean a total escape by any means. We’re still going to see powerful and damaging winds especially just ahead of the closest approach of the center, along with storm surge and very heavy surf. But if the center of the storm is just offshore, the core of strongest sustained winds, just northeast and east of the center, will remain over water. That would be good news. Also, rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches and locally 6-10 inches would be common, but the core of 10+ inch rains would also remain just offshore. Since the hurricane is still a warm core system and not transitioning, we will not yet see the heaviest rain set up west of the center, as it would during a transition to post-tropical. That would also be good news for Florida and probably Georgia. The worst flooding may occur in eastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina due to the angle of the coast and the already saturated ground due to a very wet September and recent heavy rainfall. Another point I wanted to make is that the center being just offshore would not necessarily mean it would continue to strengthen. Nearly half of the circulation would be over land and that would at least keep the intensity somewhat steady but may initiate some slow weakening.
I realize that only a matter of tens of miles will change my forecast scenario to a worst-case. Such a fine line here. Let’s hope for the best for all of the people there. Will update thoughts in the comments below. Now on to the southern New England weather below…
DAYS 1-5 (OCTOBER 6-10)…
High pressure will control the weather through early Saturday with fair weather and a warming trend. Now that Matthew is not in the picture through the weekend, all we can expect is some The only unsettled weather in the forecast through the holiday weekend are some rain showers Saturday night and Sunday morning with the passage of a cold front.
TODAY: Sunny. Highs 65-73, coolest coast. Wind light SE.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 42-47 valleys, 47-54 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Sunny. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 72-77 elsewhere. Wind light S to SW.
SATURDAY: Sunny start. Cloudy finish. Rain showers at night. Lows 50-58. Highs 68-75.
SUNDAY: Cloudy start. Rain showers early. Mostly sunny midday and afternoon. Breezy. Lows 50-58. Highs 58-66.
MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Lows 38-45. Highs 58-65.
DAYS 6-10 (OCTOBER 11-15)…
Mainly dry and a warm up to start the period. A few mid period rain showers then fair and a little cooler to end the period.
DAYS 11-15 (OCTOBER 16-20)…
A couple rain shower episodes and variable temperatures, but averaging near to above normal.