7:34AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 17-21)
Hello and Happy St. Patrick’s Day to all! Apologizes for the post that left you a bit info-deprived yesterday. Back on track today! High pressure provides what will be the nicest day of the week today, albeit starting with some cloudiness over parts of eastern MA due to a weak inversion (a thin layer of warmer air just above colder air) in the lower atmosphere this morning. Low pressure will approach Saturday and wobble its way south of New England Sunday, intensifying as it does so. An area of mix/snow will occur Saturday night into Sunday for at least portions of southern New England (CT, RI, southern MA) and the questions remain of how heavy does it get and how far north and west does it expand. Will attempt to answer these by tomorrow, but for now the further south and east you are the better chance of accumulating snow exists. There may be a fairly narrow swath of significant snow along an inverted trough (basically a line of lower pressure and air convergence that extends back from a departing low pressure center). Spring arrives, well the Vernal Equinox occurs, on Monday, and some nicer weather is expected then as well as Tuesday. But we know that the arrival of official spring does not always mean the winter switch is shut off…
TODAY: Variably cloudy start over eastern MA then increasing sun. A few clouds may drift into RI. Mostly sunny otherwise. Highs 35-42. Wind light variable.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 10-15 interior snow-covered areas, 16-22 elsewhere. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Sunshine fading behind increasing clouds. Highs 33-40. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Snow developing overnight especially southern MA, CT, RI. Lows 20-27. Wind light N to NE.
SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow, especially southern areas, with some accumulation. Highs 30-37. Wind light NE to N.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-22. Highs 40-47.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 20-27. Highs 45-53.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 22-26)
Unsettled weather is possible both early and again late in the period. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 27-31)
Another episode of unsettled weather is most likely during the middle of the period. Temperatures near to above normal.

8:44AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 16-20)
Forecast update only. Discussion added later.
TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 30-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 20-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 34-42. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Chance of snow/mix. Lows 22-30. Highs 35-42.
SUNDAY: Chance of mix/snow. Lows 28-35. Highs 35-42.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 21-25)
Risk of unsettled weather in the March 22-24 period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 26-30)
One more storm threat around March 26, otherwise a drier trend. Temperatures near to below normal.

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 15-19)
Beware of very icy surfaces today! Many of these will not melt off if they are not in direct sun for at least 2 hours, or treated thoroughly. The feel of mid winter continues as the cold pattern goes on. A few snow showers are possible today as an upper level low pressure area swings through the region. It will still be close enough on Thursday to create some additional cloudiness. By Friday, high pressure will bring dry, bright weather for St. Patrick’s Day. A broad low pressure trough is expected to cross the Northeast this weekend and bring the next round of unsettled weather to southern New England with mix/snow possible. Not quite sure how this plays out yet.
TODAY: Sun to start, then clouds and scattered snow showers this afternoon. Highs 28-35. Wind W 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly to partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers early. Lows 18-25. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Highs 30-38. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Gradual clearing. Lows 20-28. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 34-42. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Chance of snow/mix. Lows 22-30. Highs 35-42.
SUNDAY: Chance of mix/snow. Lows 28-35. Highs 35-42.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 20-24)
Snow/mix may linger March 20 then another risk of unsettled weather in the March 22-24 period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 25-29)
One more storm threat around March 26, otherwise a drier trend. Temperatures near to below normal.

7:47AM

DAY 1 (TODAY)
Storm day. Here is what to expect. Low pressure tracks northeastward and rapidly intensifies today. The center of low pressure will cut across southeastern MA this evening then track across the Gulf of Maine and into eastern Maine during tonight. Breaking down the details:
Precipitation… Areas of snow develop between 4AM and 6AM CT and RI, and between 5AM and 7AM MA and southern NH. Snow increases in intensity and falls at the rate of 1 to 4 inches per hour from late morning into afternoon, but a snow to sleet to rain line will enter Cape Cod and the South Coast by midday then eventually work north northwestward into southeastern MA and eventually to Cape Ann MA to Boston and down the I-95 corridor to Providence RI while snow continues to the northwest and west, then this changeover line will hold in place for a short time as the low pressure area cuts across southeastern MA, then will pull east again at night. Heaviest rain will occur over Cape Cod and far southeastern MA but as it works northwestward a slot of drier air will move up from the south and diminish if not stop the precipitation in RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH early evening before some snow pulls eastward across northern and central MA and southeastern NH later at night.
Snow accumulation… 1-3 inches outer Cape Cod and Nantucket before rain, 3-6 inches remainder of Cape Cod before rain, 6-12 inches Cape Ann to Boston and down the I-95 corridor to southern and eastern RI and across southern CT before mix/change which may include a period of sleet for some areas, 12-18 inches northwestern RI, central and northern CT, the remainder of MA and southern NH, and areas of greater than 18 inches outside of I-495 especially in central MA, southwestern NH, and areas of western MA as well.
Wind… North to northeast over interior areas, northeast to east in coastal areas in advance of the low pressure area increasing to 25-35 MPH inland and 35-45 MPH coastal areas but gusts above 50 MPH are likely at times interior areas and above 60 MPH near the coast, including some gusts over 70 MPH on parts of Cape Cod. As low pressure crosses southeastern MA along its path the winds will drop off to variable and under 20 MPH near its path, remain northeast to north and still quite strong to its northwest and shift to south and southwest 20-40 MPH and gusty to the southeast of the track. Once the low is offshore, winds will be north to northwest 15-35 MPH with higher gusts all areas.
Coastal Flooding… Minor to moderate coastal flooding at high tide times favoring east-facing and north-facing coastal areas a couple hours either side of this afternoon’s 1:25PM high tide, and favoring north-facing and west-facing coastal areas (Cape Cod Bay) during the near 2AM high tide Wednesday morning.
Damage / Power Outages… Many weakened trees from drought and recent wind events could lose branches or fall. Power outages are most likely in southeastern MA but could occur anywhere.
Temperatures… Late day high temps reach 25-30 southwestern NH and central MA, 30s elsewhere except 40s along and southeast of where the low pressure center tracks, with a 50 possible on Nantucket. Temps tonight fall back to the 20s in all areas from northwest to southeast so areas that saw wetter snow and a change to rain will experience a freeze-up.

DAYS 2-5 (MARCH 15-18)
Upper level low pressure crosses the region Wednesday, then high pressure takes control Thursday and Friday. Next storm threat arrives this weekend but will re-evaluate that for the next update.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Highs 30-38. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 13-20. Highs 32-40.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 13-20. Highs 35-43.
SATURDAY: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow/mix late. Lows 15-22. Highs 35-43.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 19-23)
Snow/mix possible early March 19 and another risk of unsettled weather the middle of the period. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 24-28)
Additional unsettled weather most likely the middle of this period. Temperatures below normal.

5:30PM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 13-17)
Adjustment being made with this update for a slightly further west track of the center of low pressure for the Tuesday storm. This introduces a little more warning aloft especially from the Boston-Providence corridor southeastward. Some guidance has this even further west but not going with this scenario at this time. Regardless, the storm will be intensifying rapidly as it comes across far southeastern New England and will have a large impact, even where it is not all snow. Wind and coastal flooding concerns remain, along with blizzard conditions northwest and west of the storm track as it passes. This should be a very strong wind event for the entire area. The difference between yesterday’s thinking and today’s, in additional to more mix/change to sleet/rain close to Boston-Providence, is a period where the wind shifts to southerly over Cape Cod as the low center would track west of there. This more westerly track also introduces the probability of a dry slot, or precipitation-free area that moves up from the south during the evening Tuesday and basically shuts things down along and east of the track of the center of low pressure, while snow would continue to the west before everything tapered off later. Also still expecting some snow showers Wednesday with the upper low still, but not seeing this as an event with anything more than minor additional accumulation. Fair weather is back for Thursday and Friday but with below normal temperatures as the cold pattern continues.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Snow South Coast before dawn. Lows 22-30. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow area pushes north quickly in the early to mid morning and becomes heavy at times, first in RI and southern MA then the remainder of MA into NH, changes to sleet then rain Cape Cod and Islands, into southeastern MA and southern and eastern RI. Thunder is possible. Best guess on where the line gets to is about Boston and maybe immediate Metro West and southward down I-95 and possibly onto Cape Ann MA as well. Highs range from 25-30 interior MA and southern NH westward, ranging to 40-45 Cape Cod and Islands later in the day. Wind NE increasing to 20-35 MPH interior, 30-45 MPH coast, but much higher gusts at times.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Rain/sleet ends where the changeover occurred and possibly into interior eastern MA and southeastern NH, while lighter snow continues in areas to the west of the track of the low, tapering off later at night. Snow accumulations ranging widely from 1-3 inches outer Cape Cod and Nantucket to 3-6 inches remainder of Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard, 6-12 inches southeastern MA, southern and eastern RI including from Boston to Providence, 12-18 inches elsewhere except 18+ inches in pockets of interior MA and southern NH westward. Temperatures may rise slightly over southeastern MA briefly and remain nearly steady elsewhere before falling to lows of 22-30 all areas overnight. Wind N to NW 15-35 MPH with higher gusts except briefly SE to SW over parts of southeastern MA before shifting to NW there.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers. Additional minor accumulation possible. Highs 25-35. Coldest interior areas. Wind NW to W 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-20. Highs 25-35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-25. Highs 30-40.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 18-22)
Watching possible storminess during the March 18-20 period. Dry March 21. More potential unsettled weather about March 22. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 23-27)
Watching possible storminess again later period. Temperatures near to below normal.

7:31AM

This update is not showing any changes to the forecast at this point. Another blog update this afternoon will cover any adjustments that need to be made. I realize a slight westward shift is apparent in some of the guidance but that does not necessarily mean this is going to be the final outcome. Look for an update around 4PM.

Reminders…
* Don’t look at a computer model forecast of snow totals online or TV and think that’s automatically the forecast. I’m not a fan of these being shown on TV weather forecasts because they cause confusion. Who needs to see what the Euro, NAM, and GFS, and Canadian model for that matter are showing when the meteorologist is more than capable of looking at that data and coming up with the best forecast he or she can? Yes, we discuss them openly here on the blog, but its with the understanding that they are model forecasts and models have significant biases that the general public doesn’t need to be concerned with.
* When you see a forecast snowfall range here or anywhere else, PLEASE remember to pay attention to the range, NOT just the top number. For example, “12 to 18 inches” does not mean “18 inches”. It means “12 to 18 inches” The ranges are there for a reason. Snowfall accumulates at a ratio anywhere from 5 to 20+ times greater than rainfall does. A tiny difference in the amount of melted precipitation can make a huge difference in the amount of snow that falls. Please understand that snowfall can vary highly, even over fairly short distances, based on topography, proximity to ocean, and other factors.
* Realize that a forecast is a forecast. It’s a prediction of the future movement of complex fluids of differing densities. Always check trusted sources for updates, because even the best meteorologist will never make a perfect forecast. It’s impossible.
* Weed through media hype and listen to the facts. Most TV meteorologists out there in this area are decent, and though they have to play the ratings game, they will generally give a well thought-out forecast. Forget the sensationalism the anchors may throw out at you, even though it is not of bad intent. It’s just not necessary.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 13-17)
Just a forecast update for now. Full discussion on this afternoon’s blog post.
TODAY: Sunshine becomes filtered by high clouds later in the day. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Thickening overcast. Snow South Coast before dawn. Lows 22-30. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow area pushes north quickly in the early to mid morning and becomes heavy at times, first in RI and southern MA then the remainder of MA into NH, likely changes to rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, probably changes to rain mid Cape and Martha’s Vineyard, and may mix with rain a little further into southeastern MA and southern and eastern RI. Lightning/thunder is possible in heavier precipitation bands. By evening precipitation becomes lighter or stops in RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH but snow lingers to the west before tapering off later. Expected snow accumulation through evening: 3-5 inches outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, 5-10 inches Martha’s Vineyard and mid Cape Cod westward to about the southern Cape Cod Canal, and 10-15 inches elsewhere with pockets of 15-18 inches possible in northwestern RI and eastern CT, central and east central MA, and southern NH, then amounts diminishing gradually to mostly under 10 inches over northwestern CT and western MA. Highs 25-30 most interior locations and 30-35 coastal areas but 35-45 over Cape Cod and the Islands. Wind NE 15-25 MPH inland with gusts 30-40 MPH, 25-35 MPH coast with frequent gusts 40-50 MPH, occasional gusts 50-60 MPH, and isolated gusts above 60 MPH especially coastal southeastern MA.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of snow. Additional accumulation likely. Lows 15-25. Highs 25-35. Coldest interior areas.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-20. Highs 25-35.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 15-25. Highs 30-40.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 18-22)
Watching possible storminess during the March 18-20 period. Dry March 21. More potential unsettled weather about March 22. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 23-27)
Watching possible storminess again later period. Temperatures near to below normal.

1:40PM

Before I get into this, a couple caveats. Please take note and remember.
* Don’t look at a computer model forecast of snow totals online or TV and think that’s automatically the forecast. I’m not a fan of these being shown on TV weather forecasts because they cause confusion. Who needs to see what the Euro, NAM, and GFS, and Canadian model for that matter are showing when the meteorologist is more than capable of looking at that data and coming up with the best forecast he or she can? Yes, we discuss them openly here on the blog, but its with the understanding that they are model forecasts and models have significant biases that the general public doesn’t need to be concerned with.
* When you see a forecast snowfall range here or anywhere else, PLEASE remember to pay attention to the range, NOT just the top number. For example, “12 to 18 inches” does not mean “18 inches”. It means “12 to 18 inches” The ranges are there for a reason. Snowfall accumulates at a ratio anywhere from 5 to 20+ times greater than rainfall does. A tiny difference in the amount of melted precipitation can make a huge difference in the amount of snow that falls. Please understand that snowfall can vary highly, even over fairly short distances, based on topography, proximity to ocean, and other factors.
* Realize that a forecast is a forecast. It’s a prediction of the future movement of complex fluids of differing densities. Always check trusted sources for updates, because even the best meteorologist will never make a perfect forecast. It’s impossible.
* Weed through media hype and listen to the facts. Most TV meteorologists out there in this area are decent, and though they have to play the ratings game, they will generally give a well thought-out forecast. Forget the sensationalism the anchors may throw out at you, even though it is not of bad intent. It’s just not necessary.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 12-16)
First, the advertised very cold weekend continues. There have been a few records established during this which we will review later. High pressure remains in control with dry and cold weather through Monday (what some of the old timers refer to as a “weather breeder” day – or that nice pleasant winter day you get right before all hell breaks loose, or something like that). Yes, there is a storm coming. Yes, it is going to be significant. No, it is not going to be the “storm of the new century” or the “end of the world” or “the biggest stawm eva!”. It’s going to be a good old solid late winter storm in New England, so let’s look at how I think things will play out in the simplest terms possible. Energy which has traveled great distance from several places to meet up for a party will do just that along the US East Coast starting Monday and a storm will result that will then take a fairly rapid north northeast run right up the coast. As always, the precise track of the low pressure center will have rather significant implications on snow amounts and any mix/change. To be honest, even after reviewing the latest info, I still am a little bit unsure which way to play this, but here is my best stab at it first in an overview here, then in details in the forecast section just below. It’s a 2-part event with main impact from a powerful and fast-moving surface low on Tuesday, tracking either over Nantucket and outer Cape Cod or just east of there. I realize there are model solutions both further west and further east of this still, and either of these are possible, because timing of the closing-off of an upper level low is critical enough that it will impact the track and even a 20 or 25 mile difference in the track of a low that covers hundreds of miles will have a giant impact on the amount of snow any particular location gets, especially closer to where any mix/change would occur. So based on the track I am going with, heaviest snow from the Tuesday part of the event would be in a wide swath from about the Cape Cod Canal westward including most of RI, CT, eastern and central MA, and southern NH. Amounts would possibly be less in western MA and CT due to them being further away from the storm center. The most likely area to see a change to rain will be Cape Cod and the Islands. And of course there is the potential for this still to shift one way or another. I cannot rule out a mix/change area getting deeper into southeastern MA and RI. Will re-evaluate this with the help of short range guidance as we get closer to the event. Also cannot rule out thunder in heavier precipitation bands. Wind impacts will be significant, especially given weakened trees from recent wind events. It’s also important to note that many of the trees that have come down in the last few events were weakened by drought, age, and insect infestation, which are all natural occurrences in an aging forest. Anyway, wind damage from gusts in excess of 50 MPH are possible especially in southeastern MA and favoring coastal areas from Boston southward. This would be most likely during Tuesday afternoon. Coastal flooding is also probable at high tide times and may be moderate to significant in typical areas. Why will this first system have no chance to stall and dump super high snow totals on the area? Because the upper level low pressure area that would capture it will still be back to the west and southwest of New England. In fact, this is the “part 2” of the system. Before that happens, a dry slot of lighter or no precipitation will likely move up into RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH by Tuesday evening while snow continues in areas to the west. The next part of the system will have much less overall impact, but may still bring some additional accumulating snow to the region during Wednesday. This will be the upper level low pressure area swinging eastward through the region. Once we get to Thursday, this upper low will be exiting to the east and we’ll have a cold and dry day. Forecast details next…
THIS AFTERNOON: Sunny. Highs 24-33. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 5-10 interior, 10-15 coast/urban areas. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunshine becomes filtered by high clouds later in the day. Highs 33-40. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Thickening overcast. Snow South Coast before dawn. Lows 22-30. Wind light variable.
TUESDAY: Overcast. Snow area pushes north quickly in the early to mid morning and becomes heavy at times, first in RI and southern MA then the remainder of MA into NH, likely changes to rain outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, probably changes to rain mid Cape and Martha’s Vineyard, and may mix with rain a little further into southeastern MA and southern and eastern RI. Lightning/thunder is possible in heavier precipitation bands. By evening precipitation becomes lighter or stops in RI, eastern MA, and southeastern NH but snow lingers to the west before tapering off later. Expected snow accumulation through evening: 3-5 inches outer Cape Cod and Nantucket, 5-10 inches Martha’s Vineyard and mid Cape Cod westward to about the southern Cape Cod Canal, and 10-15 inches elsewhere with pockets of 15-18 inches possible in northwestern RI and eastern CT, central and east central MA, and southern NH, then amounts diminishing gradually to mostly under 10 inches over northwestern CT and western MA. Highs 25-30 most interior locations and 30-35 coastal areas but 35-45 over Cape Cod and the Islands. Wind NE 15-25 MPH inland with gusts 30-40 MPH, 25-35 MPH coast with frequent gusts 40-50 MPH, occasional gusts 50-60 MPH, and isolated gusts above 60 MPH especially coastal southeastern MA.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of snow. Additional accumulation likely. Lows 15-25. Highs 25-35. Coldest interior areas.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-20. Highs 25-35.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 17-21)
Dry March 17. Watching possible storminess during the March 18-20 period. Dry March 21. Temperatures below normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 22-26)
Watching possible storminess early and again late period. Temperatures near to below normal.

11:42AM

REVIEW OF FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY
Yesterday was an interesting weather day. First, we had low pressure, fairly weak, moving out just south of New England, but with enough moisture to wring out of the atmosphere for 4-8 inches of snow across portions of the South Coast and Cape Cod. Amounts did drop off fairly drastically to the north and much of the snow either failed to stick or melted after it fell due to the thinner overcast and higher sun angle at this time of year. During the afternoon, some instability arrived from the west ahead of an arctic cold front. This kicked off some moderate to locally heavy snow showers in parts of NH and MA. Eventually, a convergence zone (a line, similar to a front, where air from 2 different directions meets and has nowhere to go but up) set up stretching from VT into eastern MA. Along this line, a very narrow but at times heavy band of snow was fairly persistent from mid evening into the overnight hours. Those underneath this band saw anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of additional snowfall, while a couple miles either side of the line saw little or no additional snow. I experienced being under this band where I was for about 3 hours and then drove home after 1:30AM into an area that had very little. The drop off from nearly 3 inches to about 1/2 inch was very sharp as I saw in my short drive. After the snow band pushed away to the southwest, it was amazing to hear the howling wind, see what little snow I did have blowing around, and the clouds and nearly full moon in the southwest sky at 3AM.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 11-15)
Now to the forecast. I’ll say right away that I am not nearly ready to give too many details on storm track and snow amounts for the Tuesday/Wednesday storm. There is just too much uncertainty on the table still and as usual a situation where a shift in storm track by mere miles can make a huge difference in the amount of snow a particular location sees. So there will be a lot of fine-tuning to be done through tomorrow. What I do know is that we are pretty likely to see a classic set-up regarding East Coast storm development, really the first one we have had just like this during this season. That spells out major storm. But “major storm” does not automatically mean huge snow amounts, or the strongest winds, etc., in any particular area. We need to take time to get this as accurate as possible. I won’t know these details until Sunday, and even then there will be some uncertainty. So for now, we’ll just say it looks like there will be a major storm Tuesday ending Wednesday. Before that, it’s just dry and cold, especially this weekend, which will remind you of last weekend with gusty wind and a January feel. Some records may fall, both for low temperatures and for low maximum temperatures. Forecast details for southeastern New England…
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 18-25. Wind W 15-25 MPH, gusts 35-45 MPH. Wind chill near to below 0 at times.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 0-6 interior, 7-12 coast. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusts over 25 MPH. Wind chill often below 0.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 23-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH, gusting 25-35 MPH. Wind chill near 0 at times.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 5-10 interior, 10-15 coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Sunshine eventually filtered by high clouds. Highs 30-38. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Storm, day 1 – snow/wind, may mix/rain at the coast depending on track. Lows 20-28. Highs 30-40.
WEDNESDAY: Storm, day 2 – lingering snow likely. Lows 20-28. Highs 30-40.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 16-20)
Active pattern. Current timing suggest a storm threat around March 18-19. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-5 (MARCH 21-25)
“Spring” arrives but that does not always mean “spring weather”. Additional storminess may occur during this period and it may be cold enough for some mix/snow.

4:00PM

Apologies for late update. Technical issue and scheduling prevented the usual morning one.

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 10-14)
Lots going on, so we’ll do this quickly. First, we have one wave of low pressure passing to the south and this has produced snow across southern New England today with the most significant accumulations near the South Coast including Cape Cod. In addition, a disturbance moving in from the west has kicked off some moderate snow showers over eastern MA early to mid afternoon. Additional snow showers and possibly a squall will occur through evening until the leading edge of Arctic air arrives from the northwest. This sets up a dry but very cold weekend, the second such weekend in a row. Next we look head to the storm threat for Tuesday. There is still a spread among the guidance and this system is far enough away that I do not feel confident saying any more than there is a potential for a significant storm. Several solutions remain on the table and as the weekend goes on this will be focused and fine-tuned so that by Sunday there should be a good handle on it.
REMAINDER OF TODAY: Snow ends southeast but scattered snow showers anywhere. Temperatures in the 30s. Wind light NE to N.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy with scattered snow showers and isolated snow squalls before midnight, with briefly low visibility and quick coatings of snow along with a freeze-up of existing road moisture will result in hazardous travel. Partly cloudy overnight. Lows 10-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill below 10.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 18-25. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill 10 or below at times.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 3-15, coldest interior areas, mildest coast and urban centers. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill 0 or below at times.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 22-30. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill below 15 at times.
MONDAY: Sun to clouds. Lows 10-18. Highs 33-40.
TUESDAY: Storm likely – details to come. Lows 25-35. Highs 30-40.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 15-19)
Active pattern with lingering mix/snow possible March 15, and another chance of unsettled weather around March 17-18. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYA 11-15 (MARCH 20-24)
Active pattern continues with yet another risk of storminess during this time. Temperatures near to below normal.

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 9-13)
The colder trend is underway and today will be a windy and chilly day behind the second of 3 cold fronts in this process. There is the potential for additional wind damage and power outages as many trees that were not damaged or downed from last week’s strong winds are in a weakened state and are vulnerable. Next up is a wave of low pressure passing south of the region on Friday morning. Model forecast for snow continue quite variable even fairly close to the event, but for the moment I’ll be staying in the lower side for snow amounts, with the most significant snow occurring near the South Coast and possibly parts of interior southern MA/RI/CT. By later in the day Friday or early Friday night, a batch of snow showers/squalls appears likely from southern NH into eastern MA as an inverted trough swings south to southeast through the region. This will open the door for Arctic air which will invade the region from later Friday night through the coming weekend. Some record cold is possible, including the second Saturday in a row of potential record low maximum temperatures. Though it moderates slightly Sunday-Monday it will remain colder than normal with dry weather.
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 43-49. Wind W 15-30 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Snow develops CT, RI, and southern MA overnight. Lows 23-30. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty evening, diminishing to under 10 MPH overnight.
FRIDAY: Cloudy through midday with snow in CT, RI, and much of MA, with only brief snow possible northeastern MA and southern NH – accumulations of 2-4 inches near the South Coast with a few 4+ inch amounts possible, coating to 2 inches elsewhere with the 2 inches favoring areas south of the Mass Pike. Partly cloudy afternoon with isolated snow showers north central MA and southern NH late in the day. Highs 30-37. Wind N to NW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts especially late.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Snow showers/squalls are most likely in southern NH and eastern MA with some minor additional accumulation. Lows 11-18. Wind N to NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 5-13. Highs 20-27.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 3-10. Highs 23-30.
MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 8-14. Highs 34-43.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 14-18)
Storm potential for March 14-15 and the leaning is toward a system that is strung out with an initial storm staying somewhat offshore and giving more of a side-swipe than a direct hit, and an upper level system coming across the region behind this with some additional precipitation. Should be cold enough for snow for much of the event but it remains far too early to speculate details and amounts. Look for drier weather to follow but that may be shortened by another potential bout of unsettled weather March 17-18. Confidence very low on this. Temperatures near to below normal for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 19-23)
The next potential stormy period begins about March 20 and the temperature trend should continue near to below normal.

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 8-12)
The nearly carbon-copy of last week’s weather continues, as a Pacific cold front moves through the region today. After rain showers end, some clearing and a mild afternoon will follow. A stronger cold front follows this tonight with a few rain showers possible again. Cooler and windy weather arrives for Thursday but not looking for wind gusts are ferocious as what we experience last week. However, some trees have been weakened by recent wind and continue unfrozen ground, so they may be vulnerable. Damage and power outages cannot be ruled out. A wave of low pressure will pass south of the region Friday morning but may bring some minor snow accumulation in CT, RI, and southern MA. An arctic cold front will follow this later in the day and evening with the potential for snow showers/squalls, and then a very cold weekend follows. Some records may be challenged yet again.
TODAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers ending west to east by lat morning, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.
THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 41-49. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of snow by dawn CT, RI, and southern MA. Lows 18-25. Wind NW 10-20 MPH early, shifting to W and diminishing.
FRIDAY: Cloudy morning with a period of snow southern MA, RI, and CT, with minor accumulation possible. Partly cloudy afternoon. Chance of snow showers/squalls late day or at night. Highs 28-35. Wind W 10 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 7-14. Highs 20-27.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 5-12. Highs 26-34.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 13-17)
A complex storm system is possible from later March 13 into March 15 with various types of precipitation. Drier weather follows. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-5 (MARCH 18-22)
Dry weather to start the period, then additional storminess is possible favoring the March 20-22 period. Temperatures near to below normal.

7:40AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 7-11)
Warm front crosses the region today with some areas of light rain. Pacific cold front follows it tonight and early Wednesday with a few rounds of rain showers including a few downpours. The air behind the Pacific cold front will be mild and as it partially clears for a while Wednesday we get a nice day out of it. A stronger cold front will come out of Canada and bring a few rain showers Wednesday evening and then back comes the cold air on a strong and gusty wind Thursday. Starting to sound a lot like last week isn’t it? Well, Friday, an Arctic front will approach and may kick off some snow showers, and Saturday looks like a day of mid winter cold – similar to last week…
TODAY: Cloudy. Areas of light rain, may briefly freeze on untreated surfaces before 9AM mainly northern MA and southern NH. Highs 45-53. Wind SE up to 10 MPH shifting to S and increasing to 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Episodes of rain showers. A few downpours possible. Temperatures steady 45-53. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain showers until mid morning, then partly to mostly sunny. Highs 53-60. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered rain showers evening. Lows 30-37. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to NW.
THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 38-44. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 18-25. Highs 28-35.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 8-15. Highs 25-32.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 12-16)
Watching a storm system passing south of the region early in the period but still close enough to keep a close eye on it. A second system may come along mid period with a risk of some precipitation. Temperatures near to below normal.

DAYS 11-5 (MARCH 17-21)
Brief warm-up possible early in the period then colder again. A more important storm system is possible late in the period.

7:43AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 6-10)
High pressure slips off to the east today. A warm front crosses the region from southwest to northeast early Tuesday, followed by a Pacific cold front early Wednesday as low pressure passes north of New England. The air behind the Pacific front, as we have seen, will not be all that chilly. We’ll have to wait for a secondary polar cold front to arrive Wednesday night to introduce colder air for Thursday. A disturbance moving across the northeastern US brings the chance for some light precipitation by Friday, but the details of this remain uncertain.
TODAY: Sunshine filtered at times by high clouds. Highs 30-38. Wind light N shifting to SE.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 22-30. Wind light SE.
TUESDAY: Cloudy with patchy light sleet, freezing rain, and rain morning. Mostly cloudy afternoon. Highs 48-55. Wind light SE early, then S to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy. Rain showers likely. Lows 43-50. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy early with a chance of rain showers. Partly sunny thereafter with a chance of a late day rain shower. Highs 50-58. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts, shifting to W.
THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 28-35. Highs 43-50.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light mix/snow. Lows 23-30. Highs 33-40.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 11-15)
There remains uncertainly in this period but leaning colder and mainly dry for March 11 and a risk of some mix/snow March 12 depending on the track of low pressure. Will watch for additional unsettled weather at times for the remainder of the period though it may moderate, temperature-wise for a couple days.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 16-20)
Still looks like it will be on the colder side of normal with 1 or 2 threat of precipitation possible.

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 5-9)
High pressure centered west of the region today keeps it cold (not as cold as yesterday) and breezy (not as windy as yesterday), then moves overhead tonight for a calmer but cold night tonight. A warm front approaches Monday and passes the region Tuesday followed by a cold front early Wednesday. By late Wednesday and Thursday we’ll be back into a west to northwesterly flow of dry and eventually colder air.
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 15-25 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 8-15 except 15-20 urban areas and South Coast. Wind light N.
MONDAY: Sunny start, cloudy finish. Highs 36-44. Wind light variable.
MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Lows 28-35 early then rising overnight. Wind SE up to 10 MPH.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain in the morning. Chance of rain showers late in the day. Highs 50-58. Wind S 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Clouds and early rain showers possible far eastern areas, then sun/cloud mix and windy. Lows 42-50. Highs 50-58.
THURSDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Windy. Lows 27-34. Highs 37-44.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 10-14)
Episodes of unsettled weather for much of this period. Details to be worked out as timing of systems is uncertain. Some frozen precipitation may occur during this time. Temperatures variable averaging close to normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 15-19)
A drier period of weather expected with temperatures near to below normal.

12:49PM

DAYS 1-5 (MARCH 4-8)
A harsh reminder that just because it’s March, winter is not over. Arctic air has invaded and though it’s only here for a short visit, you’ll feel it if you’re out there through Sunday morning, with lots of wind making it feel even colder! Recovery begins Sunday midday and afternoon under strong March sunshine which we will see much more of than today which features “cold air advection” clouds traversing the region from north to south and also some ocean-effect clouds over parts of outer Cape Cod. But changes are quick-coming and Monday it moderates more and clouds start to roll in ahead of a warm front which will come through by early Tuesday, putting us back into very mild air. A cold front sweeps through by early Wednesday but that day itself will also be quite mild as the colder air behind that is likely to be locked behind a secondary front which will still be northwest of our area at that time.
TODAY: Clouds & sun. Isolated snow flurries. Highs 17-24. Wind NW 15-30 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below zero.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 5-11 except 12-18 coast/urban areas. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts. Wind chill often below zero.
SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Sun followed by clouds. Lows 12-20. Highs 42-50.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Lows 40-48. Highs 50-58.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 40-48. Highs 52-60.

DAYS 6-10 (MARCH 9-13)
Windy/colder/dry March 9 behind secondary cold front mentioned above. Warm air attempts to return by March 10 but may result in some light precipitation of the frozen variety. May turn quite mild for the weekend of March 11-12 and eventually wet before colder air returns at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MARCH 14-18)
Some up and down temps here but probably averaging the colder side of normal but with mainly dry weather.