8:16AM
DAYS 1-5 (JULY 16-20)
There is a fair chance of observing the aurora borealis (northern lights) tonight as energy from a storm on the sun reaches the atmosphere. Looking north, the best chance to observe these will be away from natural lights and obviously under as clear a sky as possible. Do what you can for the first one and hope mother nature cooperates on the second. This update essentially has no changes from yesterday’s, so just a quick forecast and yesterday’s discussion generally applies. From here forward is basically yesterday’s. The weather pattern will undergo the first part of a transition in which a hot ridge of high pressure establishes itself in the western US. What tries to be a passing trough through the northeastern US will shear apart with a piece moving along to the east and the other part dropping to the south and cutting off from the flow over the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley when it will then start to drift slowly to the east. This, along with a weak surface high trying to stay established off the East Coast means Monday-Thursday turn somewhat more humid and run the risk of a few showers and thunderstorms at times.
TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 77-86, coolest South Coast. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 62-68. Wind light S.
MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Slight risk of isolated showers. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Lows in the 60s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s, coolest South Coast.
WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the upper 70s to middle 80s along the coast and the upper 80s to lower 90s interior areas.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers/thunderstorms. Lows from the middle 60s to lower 70s. Highs from the lower to middle 80s South Coast, middle 80s to lower 90s elsewhere.
DAYS 6-10 (JULY 21-25)
The large scale pattern is expected to feature a ridge of high pressure over the western US and a weak to moderate northwesterly flow over the northeastern US. This pattern is typically seasonably warm with brief alternating modified heat and modified cooler shots, timing of these not really doable beyond a few days. This pattern also produces opportunities for showers/thunderstorms especially with air mass changes. The greatest risks at this point appear to be July 21 and again late in the period.
DAYS 11-15 (JULY 26-30)
The late days of July should feature a somewhat similar pattern but trend may be for more heat as the hot ridge from the west flattens. Also continuing to see signs of new high pressure establishing near or off the East Coast which would also translate to a hotter pattern. Mainly isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible but this would be a largely rain-free pattern.