7:36AM
Happy New Year to all!
DAYS 1-5 (JANUARY 1-5)
2018 will be remembered for its wet weather. It remains to be seen what 2019 will have as its highlight(s) but wind will get a head start today as we get a strong westerly wind behind our departing New Year’s Eve storm as it intensifies rapidly while moving into southeastern Canada, setting up a strong pressure gradient between it and high pressure building in from the west. At least this wind will come with relatively mild air, unlike a year ago at this time when we were dealing with extreme cold as well as wind. It will turn colder, however, first being noticed later today and moreso tonight, but not nearly to the levels of last year. A more seasonable cold will be with us for Wednesday and Thursday, with Wednesday’s weather dry and tranquil, governed by high pressure, followed by a weak disturbance passing by early Thursday which may bring a touch of very light or light snow to the region. A larger low pressure system, one that is a phase up of the subtropical and polar jet streams in the Midwest, will make its way here by Friday night into Saturday, and as has been the pattern with the larger systems, it will have warmed up enough for mainly rain. However, colder air trying to work in on the back side leaves us with the chance of some mix/snow before it winds down, depending on timing and storm track, later Saturday – a detail to be ironed out.
Forecast details…
TODAY (NEW YEAR’S DAY): Sun/cloud mix. Highs 48-55 in the morning. Temperature fall through the 40s afternoon to the lower 40s east and upper 30s west by day’s end. Wind W increasing to 15-30 MPH with gusts 40-55 MPH, strongest in higher elevations.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy early then clearing. Lows 18-25. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts evening, diminishing overnight
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 28-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 17-24. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy with a risk of very light snow morning and midday then clearing during the afternoon. Highs 33-40. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.
FRIDAY: Clouding over. Rain arrives at night. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 40s.
SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain likely, may end as mix/snow. Temperatures steady in 40s then fall to 30s.
DAYS 6-10 (JANUARY 6-10)
A passing snow shower possible January 6 otherwise dry and cold through January 7. Watching the threat of some mix/snow for January 8 depending on the track of a disturbance moving through the region, with fair and seasonably cold weather to follow based on current timing. Model guidance continues to perform poorly beyond a few days so use of it is limited and forecasts are not high confidence, but based on overall pattern expectation.
DAYS 11-15 (JANUARY 11-15)
A passing storm may bring rain/mix/snow around mid period with dry weather to start and end, but confidence and reasoning for this forecast period is the same as with DAYS 6-10.