6:58AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 31-JUNE 4)
Patterns can be unsettled and not overly wet (amount-wise). That’s what we’ve had for months. Big picture, not individual events. That’s what we have coming up in the shorter term. Unsettled pattern, but not a lot of rain. But don’t key on the word unsettled. Let’s first focus on what will be 2 very nice days today and Saturday as high pressure controls the weather today and hangs on into Saturday as a front approaches from the west. This front will run out of steam and so will probably all the showers it tries to throw our way. As a second front pushes toward the region Sunday, a lot of its shower and thunderstorm activity may also be held at bay to the north and west of the majority of the WHW forecast area. The irony: that ocean-cooled air that so many people can be annoyed with at this time of year will be a big part of the reason the wet weather doesn’t make it into places like Boston and Providence. Now how about that! Eventually, the upper level energy will win out and we should get showers further south and east by later Sunday and Sunday night, so the weekend may end wetter in the areas it was dry most of the time. Early next week, a late spring upper level cool pool will be overhead and while most of the time it will be dry, we’ll have to watch for pop up instability showers both Monday and Tuesday, with the greater chance likely to be Monday.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78 except cooler any north or west facing shores. Wind light N then sea breezes.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy except coastal fog and low clouds. Lows 52-59. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Coastal low clouds and fog may be slow to break in the morning. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind light E to SE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers, mainly late-night, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Areas of coastal fog. Lows 53-60. Wind light SE to S.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Areas of coastal fog and drizzle early to mid morning. Chance of showers mainly very early favoring areas north and west of Boston and again late-day in any location. Highs 62-69. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 55-62. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers possible. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers possible early. Lows 50-57. Wind N 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers possible. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 5-9)
Temperatures variable but overall near seasonable. The mean trough position will likely be in eastern Canada with a ridge to the west (Midwest / Great Lakes). This pattern will send disturbances southeastward across New England and bring a few opportunities for showers.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 10-14)
I’m staying with the idea of pattern persistence in this period even though some medium range guidance tries to build more of a ridge of high pressure in the East. Still the overall feeling is when this pattern is ready to let go, it will do so quickly, so making no changes for now, but confidence is not high. Still should have a lack of early heat but a few opportunities for showers.

7:32AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 30-JUNE 3)
The atmosphere will be a little “blocky” and we end up on the unsettled side, which is a little different than my original idea for this time frame. No, not days of rain, we have some nice days in here as well, but today, not much sun, wet for some areas tonight, and then we have to watch later Saturday onward for other episodes of wet weather as we cycle a series of troughs through the region while high pressure ridging is centered a little further to the west (and another trough west of that, forming a typical set-up we see in spring, and yes, it is still spring).
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 68-75, cooler some coastal areas. Wind light S.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms evening. Lows 55-62. Wind becoming W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78 except cooler any north or west facing shores. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind light E to SE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers, mainly late-night. Lows 53-60. Wind light SE to S.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers mainly very early and again late-day. Highs 62-69. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Lows 55-62. Wind light variable.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers likely morning. Variably cloudy with possible showers afternoon. Highs 63-70. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 4-8)
Overall pattern keeps us vulnerable to passing disturbances in a trough of low pressure as things don’t change all that much. Temperatures may end up averaging a little below normal. Don’t expect 5 rainy days though. There will be dry weather in here as well. Will work on timing.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 9-13)
Going to go with pattern persistence for now. I have a feeling when we break out of this we won’t see it coming that far in advance.

7:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 29-JUNE 2)
This forecast period carries us through the first weekend of June, which also happens to be the first 2 days of June, and although we don’t see any summer-type heat in it, we don’t see anything like those record low high temperatures of 49 set on the first 2 days of June 2015 at Boston, nor do we see anything quite like the cold/wet pattern of June 2009. It will be unsettled today and Thursday with a couple opportunities for episodes of showers as waves of low pressure travel along a boundary sitting just to the south of the region. For a while it looked like that boundary may end up further north and we’d be warmer. But sometimes it just doesn’t work out that way. This is one of those times. One thing being on the cooler side of the front is doing is protecting us from severe weather that has been occurring not that far away (as close by as NYC area which had hail and a possible tornado in northern NJ, as well as many severe weather reports in Pennsylvania). Once we get to Friday and Saturday, we return to nice weather as high pressure pushes the unsettled weather away, but will it be able to hold it off all the way through Sunday? At the moment I’m thinking no, and that low pressure will push back in from the southwest, returning some wet weather to the region. If it is slower, the rain may hold off, but at day 5 there is time to fine tune this.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Overcast with patchy light fog morning. Mostly cloudy with breaks of sun possible afternoon. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind light variable, mainly onshore near coastal areas.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Temperatures steady 58-65 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind light variable becoming S.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers mainly first half of morning and second half of afternoon. Highs 68-75, cooler some coastal areas. Wind light S.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms evening. Lows 55-62. Wind becoming W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78 except cooler any north or west facing shores. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind light E.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind light SE.
SUNDAY: Becoming cloudy. Chance of rain, especially afternoon. Highs 61-68. Wind light SE.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 3-7)
Low pressure should pull away allowing drier but cooler air to arrive during June 3 but the low may hang not that far to the northeast keeping it cool and breezy into June 4 as well. Warm-up June 5-6 with mostly fair weather except risk of showers/t-storms later June 6 depending on timing of next frontal system. May remain a little unsettled into June 7 as a trough of low pressure moves through the region. Also turns cooler at the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 8-12)
It will be hard to shake off the pattern that allows the mean trough to be near the Northeast. This presents the risk of a few showers and thunderstorms at times but also keeps any early heat from getting established.

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 28-JUNE 1)
No significant changes to be made in the forecast that was posted yesterday, so just a quick summary. A boundary sits to our south today and Wednesday and low pressure comes along with wet weather mainly this afternoon and evening as temperatures go down during the day, and again later Wednesday, another day that will be on the cool side of average. A third low comes along with a more northerly track and pulls the boundary at least over the region Thursday when our temperatures vary the greatest south to north. It will also be the day when we add the risk of thunderstorms into the wet weather forecast. By Friday, this mini train of lows is gone, the boundary is back to the south, but far enough so that high pressure builds toward the region for drier weather, but the last low being the strongest and intensifying further in eastern Canada probably means that wind will be involved with the drying process on Friday. Weak high pressure should hold for fair weather Saturday as June arrives but it may not be all the warm as we have a generally onshore flow with the high centered to the north and low pressure off to the south of New England.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain develop mid to late morning on. Highs 55-62 occurring before noon, then falling to 48-55 in the afternoon. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible near the coast.
TONIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain evening. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 45-52. Wind light E.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers, mainly late-day. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind light variable.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Humid. Temperatures steady 58-65 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 75-82, cooler South Coast. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers/thunderstorms early. Humid start, then drying. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78 except cooler any north or west facing shores. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 52-59. Wind light N.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 67-74, coolest coast. Wind light E.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 2-6)
We’re going to have to keep an eye on low pressure to the south and another one to the west to see of high pressure centered to north northeast can hold them off. If we stay fair it will remain on the cooler side of normal, however, on June 2. The remainder of the period should see high pressure shift more to the southeast and a warming trend, but not without the risk of a few showers/thunderstorms from time to time.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 7-11)
A trough crossing eastern Canada may send a couple disturbances and shower/t-storm chances into the region a couple times during this period. Temperatures overall should be fairly close to seasonal averages.

8:10AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 27-31)
The final 5 days of May. How time flies. But today we pause to remember those who made the ultimate sacrifice for freedom, and what a beautiful weather day to remember them. We should always keep them in our minds as we enjoy ourselves, especially today… Our beautiful weather today is courtesy an area of high pressure that came from Canada. At least the timing was good, because a cold front that crossed the region yesterday with gusty winds and only isolated showers is going to play a little meaner trick on us as it changes uniforms, becomes a warm front, and slowly creeps back to the north toward New England Tuesday while a wave of low pressure moves along it. This will bring rain and much cooler air as we maximize the influence of the still-chilly ocean water. The front may take all day to finally get to the north during Wednesday, another unsettled day though not as cool as Tuesday. We bust into the warm air Thursday, but still with a shower risk, and add the risk of thunderstorms too due to the warmth and humidity. The front, which never gets that far north, goes back to the south again Friday, but this time far enough that we should be able to bring some drying in with clearing and fair weather returning.
Forecast details…
TODAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 50-57, 45-50 some interior valleys. Wind calm.
TUESDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain develop mid to late morning on. Highs 55-62 occurring before noon, then falling to 48-55 in the afternoon. Wind E 5-15 MPH, higher gusts possible near the coast.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Periods of rain evening. Areas of drizzle and fog. Lows 45-52. Wind light E.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Risk of showers. Highs 58-65, coolest coast. Wind light SE to S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Humid. Temperatures steady 58-65 evening, rising slowly overnight. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 75-82, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers/thunderstorms early. Humid start, then drying. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 71-78. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (JUNE 1-5)
Weak overall weather systems but the tendency will be to have high pressure shift a little more offshore and for the region to be in a predominant southwesterly flow with mostly fair weather, limited shower/t-storm risks, and warmer than average temperatures, but have to watch for ocean breezes and a system from the west which may enhance the shower risk later June 2 and another one sometime June 5.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 6-10)
A trough crossing eastern Canada may send a couple disturbances and shower/t-storm chances into the region a couple times during this period. Temperatures overall should be fairly close to seasonal averages.

7:38AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 26-30)
As promised, the wet weather came at night between days 1 & 2 of the Memorial Day Weekend. The last few lingering showers are moving off the East Coast of Massachusetts early this morning and that ends the warm front precipitation episode. Some of the showers were indeed thunderstorms in the late-night hours, providing a bit of a light show, especially west and south of Boston. Now today, its warmth and increased humidity as the features, but we cannot rule out a pop up shower or thunderstorm this afternoon and very early evening in the slightly unstable air in place. The support for showers and storms is not really that great, however, so they should be just isolated, and short-lived. A cold front will cross the region this evening without any fanfare, just a wind shift and a drop in humidity during the night. This will set up a spectacular Memorial Day as high pressure moves in and brings sunshine with dry and mild air, although the coast will likely cool due to a sea breeze. But there will be no weather issues for outdoor observances / ceremonies / parades for the day. Unsettled weather will return during the Tuesday-Thursday period when we have a warm front approach Tuesday and then we may see that boundary hang up right in our area Wednesday and Thursday, making for a nearly impossible temperature forecast which I will lean toward the warmer side of for now, but with the caveat these may be adjusted downward. It will be hard to time any wet weather until we get closer to those days.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Clouds and showers depart far eastern MA early otherwise mostly sunny to partly cloudy with a slight risk of an isolated shower or thunderstorm mid afternoon to early evening. Humid. Highs 69-76 Cape Cod, 77-84 elsewhere. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts possible.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 50-57, 45-50 some interior valleys. Wind calm.
TUESDAY: Clouding over. Chance of rain mainly after noon. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind light variable becoming SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a risk of a thunderstorm. Lows 55-62. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 68-75, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog. Chance of showers. Humid. Lows 60-67. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Risk of showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 75-82, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 31-JUNE 4)
High pressure should become more dominant but it will be on the weaker side and a boundary between slightly cooler/drier air and much warmer/humid air will sit to the south for a good portion of this period. The overall idea in this pattern is mostly dry, temperatures close to seasonal averages overall. But any time a boundary sits to the south it must be watched for the potential of sending unsettled weather back into the region, so we will be somewhat vulnerable and will have to keep an eye on it.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 5-9)
A trough crossing eastern Canada may send a couple disturbances and shower/t-storm chances into SNE a couple times during this period. Temperatures overall should be fairly close to seasonal averages.

2:50AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 25-29)
Memorial Day Weekend will feature generally nice weather, with the one unsettled weather interruption tucked into an 8-hour period Saturday night to early Sunday morning, when high pressure that brings nice weather during Saturday’s daytime gives way to a warm front crossing the region. Once this front clears the area early Sunday the humidity will go up and it will be the warmest day of the 3, and we will have to watch for a pop up shower or thunderstorm in isolated locations later in the day. A cold front will fairly quietly cross the region Sunday night and then high pressure will move in for Memorial Day with spectacular weather and no issues for outdoor observances. After that, we get into an unsettled period of weather as a frontal boundary will be in the vicinity Tuesday and Wednesday. It looks like we’ll be on the cooler side of the boundary Tuesday and the warmer side Wednesday, with a few episodes of showers and possible thunderstorms during those days, which will will have to fine-tune the timing of as it gets closer.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs 71-78, except 63-70 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Episodes of showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mostly after 11PM. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. A few lingering showers possible in southeastern MA until about 7AM. Slight risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm in any location mid to late afternoon. More humid. Highs 68-75 Cape Cod, 76-83 elsewhere. Wind WSW 5-15 MPH with higher gusts possible.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Clear overnight. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 50-57, 45-50 some interior valleys. Wind calm.
TUESDAY: Clouding over. Chance of showers. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind light variable becoming SE.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and a risk of a thunderstorm. Lows 55-62. Wind light S.
WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Risk of showers/thunderstorms. Humid. Highs 67-74, cooler Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 30-JUNE 3)
A front should still be on the vicinity, leaning toward SNE on the warmer side with a risk of showers/thunderstorms during May 30, then the front pushing through with drier weather for May 31. June 1-2 weekend starts dry and turns humid and may end with a risk of showers/thunderstorms before fair weather returns to end the period. Temperatures near to above normal overall for the period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 4-8)
A trough crossing eastern Canada may send a couple disturbances and shower/t-storm chances into SNE around June 5 and 7 (timing uncertain). temperatures overall should be fairly close to seasonal averages.

7:16AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 24-28)
Low pressure east of New England combined with high pressure approaching from the west, and cold air aloft, will turn today into a day with lots of clouds and a cool breeze, before clearing arrives tonight and Saturday is quite a nice day as high pressure moves across the region. A trough of low pressure will cross the region Saturday night and first thing Sunday, the most unsettled part of the Memorial Day Weekend, with the only other shower threat being of the isolated variety as a secondary trough crosses the area during Sunday afternoon. Sunday will be the warmest and most humid of the 3-day span. High pressure will ensure a splendid Memorial Day, which will be mild, though slightly cooler and less humid than Sunday. Another small area of low pressure will approach by Tuesday with a threat of additional showers at that time.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Early sun then lots of clouds. A slight risk of a passing shower. Highs 68-75 except 60-67 immediate coast. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78, except 63-70 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a passing shower or brief thunderstorm, favoring early morning and late afternoon hours. Highs 75-82 except cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows 50-57, 45-50 some interior valleys. Wind calm.
TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. Afternoon showers possible. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind light variable becoming SE.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 29-JUNE 2)
West to east flow, timing of systems should bring greatest chance of rain showers in the late May 29 to early May 30 time frame and in the late May 31 to early June 1 time frame. By no means does this look like a wet pattern, however. Temperatures should average slightly above normal for the 5-day period.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 3-7)
Disturbances with shower and possible t-storm risks June 3, 5, and 7 otherwise mainly dry weather with temperatures near to above normal.

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 23-27)
This 5-day portion of the blog forecast takes us right through the Memorial Day Weekend, and considering the pattern we had been in for the vast majority of the spring, this is not really that bad an outlook. The cloudiest of the 5 will be today as a warm front approaches, and this front may produce a few showers and possibly a thunderstorm later in the day, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Its parented by low pressure diving southeastward from eastern Canada, destined to cross Maine tonight while dragging its cold front through southern New England, and this front will likely set off some showers and thunderstorms, a few of which may be strong. While we are not in the SPC severe weather area, I cannot completely rule out a severe storm or two, so it will be a situation we will have to watch for tonight. The low pressure that crosses Maine will become a temporary pest in the ocean to the east, sending some extra clouds, a northeast breeze, and perhaps a few showers across the region Friday, although the day will be mainly dry. Then we get to the Memorial Day Weekend when we’ll be quickly into a southwesterly to westerly flow as a couple troughs cross the region, one later Saturday, and one sometime on Sunday. This period will be warmer than average but will not be without a couple rain shower or thunderstorm threats, but the time of rainfall in any given location will be a small percentage of the overall time during those 2 days, favoring Saturday night and early Sunday, and perhaps in a few spots later Sunday. High pressure looks set to move in for a splendid Memorial Day, with the previous late-day shower threat no longer an issue as that system will be slower to approach.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Variably to mostly cloudy. Risk of showers and possibly a thunderstorm especially late-day, favoring areas north and west of Boston. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind light variable to SE.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous rain showers and possible thunderstorms, a few of which can be strong, mainly between 8PM and 1AM. Lows 50-57. Wind light variable except possibly gusty and variable near any showers and storms, then N 5-15 MPH overnight.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A slight risk of a passing shower. Highs 60-67. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 71-78, except 63-70 South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Risk of a passing shower or brief thunderstorm, favoring early morning and late afternoon hours. Highs 75-82 except cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 55-62. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY (MEMORIAL DAY): Mostly sunny. Highs 68-75. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 28-JUNE 1)
Timing is not certain for this period but this is a rough idea of what a west-to-east flow should bring the region, and that is a warm frontal passage with showers May 28, a shot of very warm to hot and humid air with a risk of late-day thunderstorms May 29, drying and somewhat cooler but nice weather May 30, then a risk of a shower or thunderstorm between later May 31 and early June 1 with the next passing disturbance.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 2-6)
Favored fair weather to start and end period with unsettled risk most likely mid period. Temperatures near to above normal.

7:23AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 22-26)
Essentially no change in the five-day forecast philosophy, so instead of a lot of wording today, just a brief recap as we head from midweek into the Memorial Day Weekend. The only 2 “events” in this 5-day period will be the passage of a small but potent area of low pressure across Maine from northwest to southeast early Friday, which will send a warm front / cold front combo through southern New England, either of which may produce rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms from Thursday evening to early Friday morning. We will have to watch for the possibility of a few strong storms as the dynamics may support it. Another frontal combo will come through Saturday, parented by a low further north in southeastern Canada, with probably just some cloudiness at times Saturday and most shower activity occurring Saturday night. The vast majority of the first 2 days of the Memorial Day Weekend will be rain-free.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68, coolest coast. Wind NNW 10-20 MPH early, diminishing and becoming variable 5-10 MPH with sea breezes possible.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of showers especially late-day. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind light variable to SE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 50-57. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. A slight risk of a passing shower. Highs 60-67. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 68-75, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Lows 55-62. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to W.
SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 70-77 except cooler Cape Cod. Wind W 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 27-31)
Memorial Day Monday May 27 looks dry except a risk of a passing shower late-day or night with a front moving through the region. High pressure moves in for May 28 with fair weather, then high pressure offshore combined with a broad trough approaching from the west brings warmer than average temperatures but with a risk of showers at times during the final 3 days of the month. However it will probably rain only a relatively small fraction of the time on those days.

DAYS 11-15 (JUNE 1-5)
A weak block starts the pattern with high pressure northwest but close enough for dry weather, and low pressure to the south and east far enough way not to impact the region. This should be replaced with a more west to east air flow when a couple disturbances may bring a shower or thunderstorm threat later in the period.

7:15AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 21-25)
This would be a very cold day in January, but it’s May, and we’ve crossed into the “warm side of spring” where it’s hard for it to feel too chilly unless you have a wind right off the water, or are in a valley on a morning of radiational cooling. Today will feature passing clouds trying to interrupt a strong late May sun, while polar air blows in from Canada on a gusty northwest wind. So, while our summer preview 80s are 20 degrees lower and in the 60s today, it still won’t feel all that bad out there, but if you are trying to do yard work, it probably won’t be that easy with the gusty wind. High pressure moves in tonight through Wednesday, setting the wind down. Wednesday will be a very nice late spring day. And even though we are in a new weather pattern, we still have some activity to keep track of, and the next system of low pressure will dive out of Canada and cross the region Thursday night, departing Friday, with the next round of unsettled weather which will consist of showers and possible thunderstorms. It may be slow to improve Friday as a trough lingers behind the departing low but a weak area of high pressure will be in by night and then move offshore Saturday with mainly fair weather, but an approaching cold front late Saturday will bring another threat for showers. However, do not look at Saturday as an unsettled or wash-out day. It won’t be. It will be a decent start to the Memorial Day Weekend.
Forecast details…
TODAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight risk of a passing shower. Highs 62-69. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, gusting to 30 MPH or higher at times.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 61-68, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of showers especially late-day. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind light variable to SE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Showers likely. Chance of a thunderstorm. Lows 50-57. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Cloudy start with showers or drizzle lingering, then breaking clouds. Highs 60-67. Wind N 5-15 MPH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind light W.
SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers late-day or evening. Highs 68-75, cooler South Coast. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 26-30)
A cold front moves offshore early Sunday May 26 with much of the day dry after an early shower risk, and another cold front approaches later Memorial Day Monday May 27, with a late-day shower threat, leaving much of that day dry as well. High pressure dominates May 28 with fair weather, and then a broad trough will bring mild but unsettled weather in the May 29-30 period with a rain shower threat at times.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 31-JUNE 4)
A weak blocking pattern will put high pressure to the west and north and low pressure to the south and east of New England. We can be vulnerable to unsettled or mainly cloudy weather in this pattern but my early idea is that high pressure will be close enough to have the stronger influence on the weather, which should be mainly dry and seasonable. Will keep a close eye and make adjustments as needed. This outlook is a little bit different than what I had yesterday when it looked as if this period would be more zonal with low pressure further south and east. So this is a low confidence outlook at this time.

9:31AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 20-24)
Into the warm and humid air for today, until a cold front crosses the region this evening. This set-up is conducive to thunderstorms, some possibly strong to even severe, but the limiting factor of marine stabilized air will come into play from the Boston-Providence line southeastward, so the chance of stronger storms is much less there, and some of the activity may even have trouble getting there at all. Something to watch during the day. Behind the front comes a cooler and dry day with a gusty breeze for Tuesday, but passing clouds may grow enough to release a sprinkle or shower of rain in a few locations. High pressure brings fair weather Wednesday before the next disturbance brings some unsettled weather later Thursday possibly lingering early Friday as well before dry weather returns.
TODAY: Variably cloudy. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible through mid afternoon then showers and thunderstorms more likely from northwest to southeast late afternoon through early evening, strongest north and west of a Boston-Providence line, where a few severe storms are possible with damaging wind being the primary threat. Humid. Highs 68-75 South Coast except cooler Cape Cod, 76-83 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms possible early, followed by clearing. Lowering humidity. Lows 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Slight risk of a passing shower. Highs 62-69. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of showers especially late-day. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind light variable to SE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows 50-57. Wind light variable.
FRIDAY: Cloudy start with rain or drizzle lingering, then clearing. Highs 60-67. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 25-29)
Two cold fronts should cross the region during the course of the Memorial Day Weekend, with current timing suggesting late Saturday / early Sunday for front #1 and late Monday for front #2. Much of the weekend should be dry with near to above normal temperatures. Fair and slightly cooler weather returns for the end of the period.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 30-JUNE 3)
Pattern looks west to east flow, flat ridge, which is warm overall but still provides opportunities for showers and thunderstorms at times.

9:27AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 19-23)
A warm front crosses the region this morning and will kick off scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm, with most activity north of I-90 and a smaller area to the south. Once we get to afternoon the shower/storm threat drops off but the temperature and humidity go up. Another disturbance may bring a few showers/storms to the region tonight. When we get to Monday, most of the day in any given location will be rain-free, but we won’t be free of the risk of a passing shower or thunderstorm, although the greatest threat comes later day / evening with a cold front passing through the region. The risk for severe storms is there, with some supporting factors and some not as supporting. (There will be a comment posted below from the last blog that adequately explains it in more detail.) Once we get the front through the region, the summer preview of Monday ends and it’s back to seasonable but very nice weather Tuesday and Wednesday, before the next system diving out of Canada brings a shower risk on Thursday.
TODAY: Variably cloudy morning with passing showers and possible thunderstorms. Partly sunny afternoon. Highs 60-67 Cape Cod, 68-75 elsewhere except 75-80 some interior locations by late-day. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing showers and a slight risk of thunderstorms. More humid. Lows 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly sunny through most of afternoon with isolated showers and thunderstoroms possible. Mostly cloudy late-day with showers/thunderstorms possible. Any thunderstorms can be strong to severe. Humid. Highs 68-75 South Coast except cooler Cape Cod, 76-83 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms early, followed by clearing. Lowering humidity. Lows 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-52. Wind light variable.
THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Risk of showers especially late-day. Highs 63-70, coolest coast. Wind light variable to SE.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 24-28)
Wet weather may hang on early May 24 with departing low pressure. A cold front may produce a few showers around May 25 and another approaching system may bring a shower risk later May 27 but most of the Memorial Day Weekend, as far as I can tell in advance, looks dry. Additional showers possible May 28 depending on the speed of the passing system. Temperatures near to above normal overall.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 29-JUNE 2)
A little more west to east flow will allow a couple passing systems and shower/thunderstorms threats but the overall pattern should remain on the drier side most of the time with near to above normal temperatures.

10:26AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 18-22)
High pressure provides beautiful weather today, but the pressure gradient between its center to the west and low pressure in eastern Canada will create a gusty breeze, and as sunshine heats the ground and evaporates moisture out of it from plenty of recent rainfall, this air rising into colder air aloft may help to develop some cumulus clouds which will float across the sky and blot out the sunshine at times, if they can overcome the dry air aloft. If these clouds do pop, they will be gone by evening but some higher clouds will arrive this evening and increase overnight ahead of an advancing warm front, and this may make your Sunday start on the cloudier side, with even a risk of a passing rain shower as the front lifts through, but the warm air will move in with more sun developing during the day, as it also turns out warmer with an increase in humidity levels as well. The next forecast dilemma is to figure out how much cloudiness and shower and possible thunderstorm activity will take place while we are in the warm sector, which will be around until a cold front arrives late Monday. I think a disturbance crosses the region with a shower and possible thunderstorm sometime Sunday night, but gets out of the way by early Monday, which will be largely rain-free, although the opportunity for a passing shower will be there, and then a more general shower and thunderstorm threat should occur late-day or early-night with the front. How much sun Monday? I think enough that some areas reach or exceed 80, but maybe not well into the range of 80-87 that I had on the previous blog, so I’m going to trim off the top part of that. Either way, Monday will be a preview of summer in comparison to much of our recent weather. Post cold front we get back to some nice spring weather Tuesday and Wednesday of next week as high pressure arrives from Canada, west of the region enough with low pressure offshore so we have a gusty breeze Tuesday, then tranquil but with sea breezes Wednesday.
TODAY: Sunshine, with a few passing clouds possible. Highs 58-65 Cape Cod, 65-72 elsewhere. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy evening. Mostly cloudy overnight. Lows 45-52. Wind light variable.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny morning with a slight risk of a passing rain shower northern MA and southern NH. Partly to mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 60-67 Cape Cod, 68-75 elsewhere except 75-80 some interior locations by late-day. Wind S 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Passing showers and a slight risk of thunderstorms. More humid. Lows 56-63. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY: Partly sunny through most of afternoon with isolated showers possible. Mostly cloudy late-day with showers/thunderstorms possible. Humid. Highs 68-75 South Coast except cooler Cape Cod, 76-83 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms early, followed by clearing. Lowering humidity. Lows 55-62. Wind W 10-20 MPH, higher gusts possible.
TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 62-69. Wind NW 10-20 MPH, higher gusts.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Clearing. Lows 48-55. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 60-67, coolest coast. Wind light variable with sea breezes.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 23-27)
As discussed previously, I believe the pattern that evolves is one that puts the mean ridge of high pressure in the Great Lakes / Midwest area with troughs both to the west and east of it, but the eastern trough being far enough east that this area will often be on the drier side of the pattern overall. However, “ridge riders” or disturbances that come up and over the ridge can still bring episodic unsettled weather and are very hard to time. Right now, the favored timing for such disturbances passing through with shower or rain threats are May 24 and May 27. And “rain threats” does not necessarily translate into “rainy days” either. These systems can be weak, and fast, and produce very little, or they can dig a little more and produce a bit more rainfall. We’ll just have to keep an eye on the pattern for timing.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 28-JUNE 1)
Same general idea for the pattern but it may de-amplify some allowing a little more trough into New England before May ends, with a round of rain possible. I think the majority of this period will also be rain-free, with temperatures not all that far from seasonal averages.

7:25AM

DAYS 1-5 (MAY 17-21)
A low pressure system will send its warm front / cold front combo through southern New England today, producing some spring showers (hey it’s all in the wording, right?). High pressure builds in for a beautiful Saturday, warmest inland, cooler near the coast with sea breezes. A warm front will cross the region Sunday with some cloudiness but the shower threat appears to be very limited, so count it as a basically dry day, and turning warmer. And the warm air will be quite established for Monday, which will be a preview of summer, and may feature a late-day shower/thunderstorm threat as a cold front approaches. Behind that front will come a comfortable and dry day Tuesday. Yes folks, the weather pattern has changed. All you needed was some patience. 🙂
Forecast details…
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers likely through mid morning favoring areas north of I-90. Isolated to scattered rain showers thereafter. Slight risk of a thunderstorm late-day. Highs 60-67. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 45-52. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 42-47 interior/rural, 47-52 coastal/urban. Wind light NW.
SUNDAY: Variably cloudy morning with a slight risk of a passing rain shower especially northern MA and southern NH, then mostly sunny. Highs 65-72 South Coast, 73-80 elsewhere, occurring late-day many areas. Wind light variable becoming S then SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.
SUNDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. More humid. Lows 55-62. Wind S to SW 5-15 MPH.
MONDAY: Partly sunny. Late day showers or thunderstorms possible. Humid. Highs 65-72 Cape Cod, 73-80 remainder of southeastern MA and immediate RI shore as well as parts of Cape Ann MA, 80-87 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with a shower or thunderstorm possible early, then clearing. Lows 53-60. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
TUESDAY: Sun and passing clouds. Drier. Highs 63-70. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

DAYS 6-10 (MAY 22-26)
Overall upper pattern will feature a ridge of high pressure centered just west of New England. A few disturbances may still bring episodes of unsettled weather but the emphasis will be on fair weather and temperatures near to above normal.

DAYS 11-15 (MAY 27-31)
High pressure should strengthen for a drier, warmer pattern, but with cooler coastal areas at times. We will still have to watch jet stream disturbances passing over the top of the ridge. Any of them strong enough can dig a temporary trough and bring brief unsettled weather.